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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    I see 13 healthy names on the Houston 40-man which would have to make the opening day roster or be cut. Tony Sipp would be an obvious cut candidate in that group. There's also a Rule 5 guy, but only a very long shot (Anthony Gose, trying to convert from OF to RP). Not a lot of guys in the next tier forcing their way up quite yet, though. Martes is pretty raw. I don't see more than 13 position players that need rostering either. So it shouldn't be too hard to start with 12 and include McHugh as the 6th starter, if they want. Keep in mind, while they have added Verlander and Cole, they lost Fiers, McCullers has yet to start more than 22 games in a season, Keuchel has missed time the last 2 seasons (and is a pending FA himself), and Peacock might be a better weapon out of the pen.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Arrieta is the one Boras client out of the major FA SP. While some said we didn't have the luxury of beating the Cubs offer for Darvish, I think waiting on Arrieta/Boras is probably a bigger luxury that we can't afford. We can't risk going into the season with our current crop of SP.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    And the Arizona GM, manager, and pitching coach were all dismissed from their posts within 2 years of that trade.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Twins play 9 straight days after their first series, then go to Puerto Rico, then 19 straight days into May. Not much opportunity to skip the 5th spot.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Lewis-plus, for Archer OR Honeywell. Keep in mind, Sano and Kepler are about to get more expensive.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Why in the world would the Rays trade the #12 prospect in baseball?
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Again, apples to oranges. The comparison is not "opt out vs no opt out", it's "opt out vs. no opt out plus $25 mil" or whatever. The opt out has value which is already represented in the contract terms.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Because he is comparing apples to oranges. Obviously, 6/126 without an opt out is better for a team than 6/126 with an opt out (assuming the player is good enough for that range of contract, of course). But that's not the choice. It is more like 6/150 without an opt out, versus 6/126 with an opt out. Or, you don't get the player without the opt out, versus you do get the player with it. The opt out isn't intrinsically bad for a team. Just like a no-trade clause or anything else. It's all about how you value it.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually, another worst case is you don't land the player. Or you have to guarantee more up front to land the player ($160 mil, in this case?).
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    This is a troubling quote from our front office. The comparison shouldn't be, this contract vs the exact same contract with an opt out. The correct comparison is the contract with an opt out vs. a more expensive / less valuable contract offer without an opt out.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    This is a bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy, no? I'd guess Darvish would have had more respect for our commitment to winning if we actually bothered to offer him a market rate contract in the first place. Heck, maybe if we demonstrate the ability to land a Darvish, the next Verlander type trade candidate might be more willing to waive their no-trade clause to come here. If we want to overcome the perception that we're not committed to winning, we actually have to commit to winning, more than we've done to date.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Correct. Even though you can add a guy to the 60-day DL in spring training, those spring training days don't count toward the 60.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    I believe this is no longer true, since he had kids -- Mauer makes his permanent home in Minnesota.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    I wouldn't worry too much about the hypothetical -- the idea that Darvish would make his ~$125 mil signing contingent on that of Mike Napoli is pretty far-fetched. It is almost certainly Napoli trying to ride Darvish's coattails than an actual concern from Darvish.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, I meant that line to say that you are now arriving at some of the core tenets of modern sabermetrics (BABIP and ERA prediction). I edited it out around the same time you responded because I thought I wasn't communicating that well. Nothing wrong with digging deeper for a better understanding, of course! But if you feel I am being too dismissive of your points, please keep in mind that this debate is far bigger than you and I and the context of Lynn and Darvish, and I may not be the best emissary for modern sabermetric thought. But I'll do my best as my time and typing allows.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Keep in mind, at its core FIP is just a shortcut to describe a pitcher's K rate, BB rate, and HR rate on an ERA scale. Projecting those rates is what creates the projection. (Although FIP can be derived from the projection too.) You can see Steamer doesn't like Lynn's K rate or HR rate to bounce back. With a return to normal BABIP, that makes for another high FIP, and Steamer basically projects guys ERA right around their FIP. I think Steamer is maybe overly pessimistic on Lynn, probably because it is agnostic about the TJ surgery/recovery context, but a non-elite K rate guy coming off a career low K rate is a concern. He hasn't yet bounced back fully from TJ in terms of K rate (and velocity?), and there remains the chance that he never will, particularly past the age of 30. Another projection is ZIPS which looks better for him -- gives his 2017 rates and thus FIP a little boost, and gives him a better ERA than FIP too. Still has him at .289 BABIP, a tick lower than Steamer but much closer to average than his 2017 mark. https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-zips-projections-st-louis-cardinals/ In my opinion, Lynn is no slouch, but I still prefer Darvish, who is not without risk of course, but has already come back better/farther from TJ in terms of K rate and velocity, while a contract for Lynn would be a bet on that full recovery which hasn't yet happened. And Darvish has a higher ceiling (peaked at 5.9 bWAR, compared to 3.7 bWAR for Lynn) and probably a higher floor (he's basically been a 4+ bWAR performer, prorated to 31 GS, in each of his 5 MLB seasons so far). I am sure the Twins have their own criteria that goes beyond any data we have (or could comprehend!) but from my vantage point, Darvish is the higher aim, and I would like them to aim high, given the circumstances.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Now that's what I call a SCORCHING hot sports take!
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    FIP and BABIP are just stats which can be calculated on a career, season, or even a per game basis. They get more useful/predictive with a larger sample. They are not projections themselves. Projections like Steamer incorporate multiple years of BABIP and FIP (and/or its components).
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    One 40-man spot opens up on Feb. 13, with Pineda moving to the 60-day DL. So any signing could be announced now, and become official on Feb. 13 with no one lost. Rule 5 pick Kinley is the other obvious candidate for removal, if they needed an additional spot. But I doubt they sign two MLB contracts right now (at least one would probably be a MILB deal with an early opt out).
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Career BABIP: Darvish .292, Lynn .297. League average has been between .293-.298 since 2012. Lynn was a .244 BABIP pitcher last year in much the same way Danny Santana was a .405 BABIP hitter in his rookie season. Even to the extent that it might reflect skill, for that season, the players in question have shown no ability to maintain that level of skill over a larger sample.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    You're not likely to know with any confidence whether these "young guys" will pan out as MLB starters 12 months from now -- they currently have virtually zero experience above AA (Gonsalves 5 games at AAA, Jorge 3, and Romero/Littell/Thorpe all with zero). 2018 is almost certainly about AAA refinement and getting their feet wet in MLB. Best case, next winter they might be in a spot like Mejia this offseason -- able to compete for an open job, ready to come up as a reinforcement if needed, but not someone to whom you want to hand a spot. The timing is perfect for the Twins to make a multi-year SP commitment, if that's what it takes to get the best SP on the market. There is a clear and obvious need today, likely one for 2019 as well given the inexperience of the prospects, and a couple current vets coming off the books before 2020 too (Ervin and Gibson, if he makes it that far).
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    FIP predicts future ERA better than ERA itself. Lynn and Cobb both had worse FIPs than ERAs last year (Lynn especially so).
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    I'd say a championship (or even just playoffs) are also big for marketing and visibility, giving a team more leverage in local media contracts too.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    First of all, Gibson was 0.2 WAR in 2017. If he performs up to this projection, he adds 2 wins over our 2017 record, just by himself. Add Darvish and his 4 WAR on top of that (replacing Santiago/Colon?), and that's another 4 wins. 6 total. Why are you assuming we'd lose Gibson if we added Darvish? Hughes and Mejia are still listed in our top 5 SP at the MLB.com depth chart. And even if they did, for some unknown reason, cut Gibson for Darvish, the correct comparison would be Gibson's 2017 vs Darvish's 2018, which would still net 4 wins for the Twins. (It could only be a net 2 if you assume that Gibson will hit his 2 WAR projection and you still cut him, which doesn't make any sense.)
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    That's not really what this means. A team would not be paying Darvish $150 mil or whatever "just" for 4 WAR in 2018 (although 4 WAR is nothing to sneeze at, the 20th best SP in baseball). They would be paying that for an X% chance at 4 WAR in 2018, a Y% chance at 6 WAR, a Z% chance at 2 WAR, etc. The 4 WAR is just the median if you distill all of those probabilities down to one number. Maybe another way to look at it, roughly, with Darvish at 4 and Gibson at 2 is that Darvish is twice as likely to be a "plus" pitcher in 2018, and Gibson is twice as likely to be replacement level.
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