Otto von Ballpark
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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark
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The Tampa outfield was pretty well regarded -- Kiermaier especially. The Rays defense overall ranked pretty highly. -
Interesting. Fangraphs actually said he got -1.2 wins in 2017 from stranding runners (or a lack thereof).
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Per Fangraphs, his low BABIP was worth 2.2 wins alone in 2017 ("BIP-Wins"). Even with a .271 BABIP in 2015-2016, they had him gaining 1+ wins from low BABIP each of those seasons -- I guess it was still low relative to league/park.
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It's weird, usually when there is a BABIP discrepancy, you see it in bWAR vs fWAR. But both of those peg him at replacement level for 2017.
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Again, park factors include Price home vs road, the Tampa hitters home vs road, etc. And some park factor evidence of Tampa as a pitcher's park predates Price too. Not to say park factors are super-precise, but I think they indicate a lean pretty well. I just don't see a case that Odorizzi should expect a park benefit with this move.
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Perhaps some, although Tampa's pitcher's road performance is in that calculation too. As well as Tampa's hitters, home vs road. I think some skepticism of park factors is understandable, but it's hard to make a case that moving from Tampa to Minnesota is going to give a pitcher a park boost. At best, it could be neutral.
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Tampa's ballpark has rated as a pitcher's park for 9 straight seasons, and even before then, it was never more than neutral. It has never rated as a hitter's park. And the AL East was not an offensive powerhouse last year. The 4 non-Tampa teams in the AL East averaged 770 runs last year. The AL Central and West teams averaged 767.
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Only partially guaranteed, in some cases. Like arbitration eligible players, and apparently Sanchez's deal, whenever it becomes official.
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Note that Odorizzi gave up a lot of unearned runs last year. His ERA was 4.14 but his RA9 was 5.02, which is not that far off from Gibson's. In a pitcher's park, that explains why his 2017 bWAR was in line with Gibson too.
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I like the trade too, but I think some are overrating the "AL East" effect, especially recently. In 2017, the Yankees were the only east team in the top 5 in AL runs scored, Toronto was last, Orioles 8th. In 2016, the Red Sox had a big year, but the Yankees were only 12th.
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Darvish's contract was front-loaded, so it would represent less than 20% of payroll in later years. It also includes an opt out clause, which reduces the potential long-term upside, but also potentially nullifies the riskiest years 3-6. Its no-trade restrictions are loosened in years 5-6 too, so potentially the team could swap it for a different asset near the end, spreading out the owed salary over more years. And any long-term deals for Buxton, etc. would be structured with the Darvish commitment in mind, with salaries plateauing through his year 6, and increasing after his deal is over. With 6 years to plan, the deal would have been no serious impediment to Twins efforts to lock up homegrown talent, should the need arise. It may have precluded a similar elite FA signing over the next few years, but the odds of multiple such opportunities being available to the Twins in a short time span are virtually zero anyway.
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Article: Minnesota's Winter Of Discontent
Otto von Ballpark replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Hey, if the Twins don't really deserve any blame for their Darvish offer, does that mean they don't really deserve any credit for the Addison Reed deal either? After all, the team just made the offer, they didn't have any control over whether the player actually signed, right? -
Sounds like the "split contract" reporting was inaccurate -- we likely will be unable to send him to AAA. This will create the usual "opt out" drama at the end of spring training, just with ~$2 mil extra on the line.
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As we have discussed, I don't agree with you about using the young arms in MLB quite yet -- but the split nature of this Sanchez deal seems to imply that he's ticketed for AAA starts even if he can't crack the MLB rotation. I suspect we could all unify in our dislike for that plan!
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Not sure about that. A "flier" usually doesn't come with a 40-man roster spot and guaranteed salary (albeit only $500k). A lot of people seem to be assuming he will be cut this spring if he doesn't make the team, but how often do teams give a guy a 40-man spot on Feb. 16 and release him by April 1? There seems to be 2 possible outcomes here: 1. Sanchez makes the rotation, gets $2.5 mil 2. Sanchez goes to the AAA rotation, makes $500k Neither one looks good from my vantage point. You've got all offseason to come up with an improved rotation plan, and Anibal Sanchez is part of it? Or he's taking away opportunities from about 5-6 younger guys who need to be starting in AAA?
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Wasn't there a theory the Twins passed on Darvish because they could get both Lynn and Cobb for the same money? If nothing else, the Sanchez signing and putting him on the 40-man roster would seem to put that long-shot theory to rest.
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Article: Minnesota's Winter Of Discontent
Otto von Ballpark replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
We're not making up the Twins reported offer, which had no real chance of landing Darvish in Minnesota. I don't claim to guarantee that a larger offer would have landed Darvish, but there were larger reasonable offers that would have greatly improved our chances. Which I thought was our goal, given we were told acquiring Darvish was a priority. -
Well, Sanchez only threw 105 innings last year (84 as a SP), so there is a sample size issue there too. His K% was a tick below league average in 2016. And I don't think that level of K rate means too much by itself. Michael Tonkin had a significantly better than league average K rate, even among relievers....
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Hey, we're paying Pineda $2 mil to do just that!
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League K rate has been rising every year recently. In fact, Sanchez had exactly the MLB average K% in 2017.
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Even more likely then that he might expect to start the year in AAA. Although, don't we already have 5-6 starters for AAA? Maybe we shouldn't want this guy down there if he's not even good enough to make our MLB staff...
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Actually, perhaps we could send him to the minors to open the season. Since it is a "split" contract, it sounds like they have already agreed upon a $500k salary if he is sent to the minors, and a $2.5 mil salary if he makes MLB. Sanchez did consent to go to AAA last year for Detroit. So while he will be sucking up a 40-man spot (and perhaps just sucking in general), we may be able to avoid the "opt out" drama that usually comes with veterans on minor league deals at the end of spring training.
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I was going to say "too late" but Worley does have an opt out in his minor league deal with the Reds -- so he could theoretically be our opening day starter again! https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/01/reds-sign-vance-worley.html
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Might just be his last chance, period. How did his previous "chance to put himself in position to make money" go? That is, 2017? A half decent year could have netted him $16 mil for 2018 (team option), although he did get a $5 mil buyout just for trying.
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Article: Minnesota's Winter Of Discontent
Otto von Ballpark replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
"Impactful" could be in a negative direction too!
