Parker Hageman

[ATTACH=CONFIG]427[/ATTACH]After months of expecting Josh Willingham to move from left field, the outfield position he has played the most in his career, across the turf to right field, Ron Gardenhire has switched courses on that plan. Back in February, Gardenhire acknowledged that the experiment of moving Willingham to right field might not work but that they would be ready if he would be unable to adapt to the new position: "That's what we are going to do. We're going to try to figure this out in Spring Training. We're going to start out this way and if it looks like it's working OK and he's getting used to that, he'll be out in right field. But if it looks like he's not comfortable in right field, I know the other guys can do it for a fact." Prior to Sunday's game, the Twins manager said that Willingham would be his left fielder and not his right fielder has was initially intended. "Let's call Josh Willingham my left fielder," Gardenhire said before Sunday afternoon's game with the Cardinals at Roger Dean Stadium. Those who have watched him play have rated his arm as being below average. According to Fangraphs.com's Fans Scouting Report his Arm Strength has rated a 45 on a scale of 100 and an even slower release (40). This is not exactly ideal for right field play where those individuals have to make the longer throw to third base in addition to home plate making his transfer back to left field a better idea. Of course, voters think little of his range as well. In those categories - First Step and Speed - Willingham rated 34 and 37 respectively. Meanwhile, the BillJamesOnline.net Plus/Minus system says that he has had troubles over his career in left going back on balls, finishing -21 on deep balls dating back to 2008. Perhaps it was one of both of these factors that played a role in Gardenhire's decision to move Willingham back to his more familiar position. So who is going to be the starting right fielder? Gardenhire said the race is between the hot-hitting Chris Parmelee, Trevor Plouffe and Ben Revere (who is likely going to wind up the team's fourth outfielder, according to the team's assistant general manager Rob Antony on 1500ESPN.com). Parmelee's clearly earned an opportunity to play for this team with both is previous September performance as well as his torrid spring. However, he is fairly raw when it comes to outfield play. In the past two years in the minors, he's played 57 games in right field. His range factor of 1.86 (RF/G) over his full minor league playing time in right suggests that he isn't a significant liability (by comparison Michael Cuddyer's career range factor in right is 1.87) but he's not going to be a coverage guy in the field either. Likewise Plouffe is also green when it comes to the outfield position, having only played 21 games in the outfield in his professional career. Revere, who was the early favorite over the winter, had worked hard during the offseason to get his arm strength up to snuff (whereas Willingham's rated a 45 on Arm Strength, Revere was rated a 4) but the organization seems to have cooled on the idea of him being a starter. While he has been an amazing fly-tracker, reports from Fort Myers is that Revere is struggling when he has to charge balls on the ground. Although neither Gardenhire nor Antony mentioned this in their discussion of the outfield alignment, Ryan Doumit's name will very likely be mixed in the lineup in the outfield - particularly if Justin Morneau is a DH and Parmelee is shifted to first base. After dishing out $4 million to him, there is little doubt in my mind that they attempt to get him into the lineup more than two times a week to allow Mauer to rest. For the more fly-ball oriented pitchers on this staff, this alignment should raise their anxiety levels just a bit. With Revere and Span, the pitchers had some reassurance that more fly balls would find leather. Now, the gaps are going to get a little bigger. The hope, of course, is that with this alignment, the Twins should have a more potent offense that would off-set the defensive liability.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]418[/ATTACH]Following Monday’s 0-for-2 performance, lowering his spring batting average to .100, Justin Morneau addressed his struggles: "It's gotten better. It's not where I want it to be yet. The swing's getting better. The swing feels a lot better than it did when I first got down here. It's a process, it's moving along. I just have to keep telling myself that it's slow, and just because it's not here now doesn't mean it's not going to be here a week from now." Sound familiar? A year ago, Morneau was coming off a serious concussion injury and slowly easing back into the game in mid-March. For the majority of the time in Florida in 2011, he struggled. He failed to leave the yard in his 11 games and batted .152 but managed to knock a trifecta of doubles. Reflecting on his performance, told the Star Tribune’s LaVelle E Neal that his “timing is starting to come .” Despite his claim to the contrary, in the regular season Morneau’s timing never came. As of this past Monday, his results have continued to plummet (down to .091 after yesterday’s 0-for-3 game), sending a ripple of concern through the Minnesota fan base that the timing may never come. For those looking for some reassurance, you can turn to the fact that it is hard to put too much stock into the small sample size that is spring training. Additionally, Morneau has never been a fast starter when it comes to spring training (dating back to 2006 and MLB.com’s statistical database). Perhaps the Canadians have a tough time adjusting to the Gulf Coast heat. With the exception of his 2009 spring in which he hit three home runs and slugged over .700, he has been somewhat of a disappointment each March. Nevertheless, he has still managed to come out and perform admireably once the calender flips to April. Take is 2010 spring for instance. That year he posted a batting average of .160 (albeit tagging three home runs). Even though he had what could be considered a slow start, he was blazing through the league, hitting .345/.437/.618 with 18 home runs prior to his run-in with John MacDonald’s knee. Morneau and the media on-lookers in Fort Myers are trying to sell hope. “It’s close” is the clear message. Back on March 16th Neal said in his blog that Morneau “swung the bat with murderous intentions tonight, which could be a sign that his timing is coming around to the point where he's comfortable with letting it fly.” Morneau told reporters after Monday’s game that “I think I've just kind of let it fly and hit some balls hard - hit some balls hard at people, hit some balls hard foul. I guess that's a pretty good sign. Especially yesterday, I pulled the ball foul. I hadn't done that in a long time." Likewise, following yesterday’s contest, 1500ESPN.com’s Phil Mackey described Morneau’s outs as “scalded” and hit “hard.” These are positive signs, are they not? After all, hard hit balls eventually turn into hits. Then again, while that sounds comforting, this has been a historically bad spring output for the first baseman. He has never not hit an extra base hit in spring training. He has never had a sub-.100 batting average. What’s more, he has never had to recover from a concussion, wrist surgery and pain in his neck, shoulder, knees and toes (knees and toes). If he was not be able to shake the concussion alone last year to regain his timing, what is to lead us to believe he will overcome all four ailments to rebound in 2012?

That would be a pretty potent lineup. You should compare what the cost would be to have kept that group intact.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]405[/ATTACH]After sending Tsuyoshi Nishioka to Rochester, many fans began to think that Brian Dozier may have done enough this spring to entice the powers that be to include him on the major league roster. On Tuesday, manager Ron Gardenhire squelched that notion. According to the Star Tribune’s Joe Christensen’s tweet which paraphrased Gardenhire’s comments on the situation, the Twins will not be bringing Dozier northward but rather sending him to Rochester to start the season. The Twins’ manager added that the team would not hesitate to summon Dozier if anything should happen to either Jamey Carroll or Alexi Casilla. This would allow for Dozier to be a starter rather than a utility player for the parent club. Dozier, 24, made offensive progress in 2011 after his promotion to Double-A New Britain. There, he worked with hitting coach Tom Brunansky to develop more power. Said Dozier of the former Twins’ instructions: "When I got to Double-A, my swing kind of changed,'' Dozier said. "I started to develop into my swing. I worked with Tom Brunansky and it really took off for me. I developed more power and was driving balls more than I was used to.'' Unfortunately, no video exists of Dozier’s post-Double A swing so we cannot provide a full breakdown of his mechanics. What we can see statistically is that whatever changes that were made, it resulted in much improved power numbers although at the small expense of his on-base percentage and batting average. While in High-A Fort Myers, Dozier hit a solid .322/.417/.472. Once he was moved to New Britain, he hit a very good .318/.376/.502. While the walk rate dropped (from 12.4% to 8.0%) and the strike out rate grew (from 9.2% to 13.1%) his power output increased substantially (his isolated power swelled from .150 to .184). This might be something that you would expect from working under Brunansky’s tutelage as Bruno himself had a lot of all-or-nothing type swing in him (leading to a low-batting average/on-base percentage and high-slugging combination over his career). Of course, that is not to say that Dozier is following in Brunansky’s footprints, after all, the change in competition level may have as much to do with the shift in his peripheral numbers as anything. However, the change in the way the ball was coming off his bat may be the biggest outcome of the swing modification. Pre-New Britain, Dozier was knocking the ball into the ground closer to the 50% mark over his career. For a speedy middle infielder, this is not necessarily a bad thing. Since his time in New Britain, that ground ball rate has dropped to below-40%, meaning he is elevating the ball far more often than usual and, hence, the sudden increase in home runs (seven in 351 plate appearances) and extra base hits. So whatever adjustments were made, so far, it has paid off. With Brunansky moved to Rochester to handle the team’s most ready minor league prospects, sending Dozier back to work with the man who helped improve his swing and continue to put the final touches on it is not the worst outcome.

No, no. I'm just saying what he relayed to the media did not provide much insight - not that he doesn't understand these things.

With a bullpen that is holier than the Pope, the Twins have been hosting an audition with many of their arms this spring hoping to fill some of the openings. Many of the early front-runners have likely exited the race early. Some, like Joel Zumaya, had the misfortunate of being bounced out due to injury. Others, like Terry Doyle and Jason Bulger, have just failed to perform. As a lot of the field continues to falter for one reason or another, Kyle Waldrop has emerged as a potential candidate to head north with the club. After coming up through the system working as a starter, Waldrop has made a quick ascension to the upper level since being converted to a reliever. Recently dispatched into short-term work, he has thrived by throwing an impressive sinker that has damaged infield turf all over the minor leagues. In 2010, his first season at the Triple-A level, 64 percent of opponents’ batted balls were of the ground-ball variety. This past year, he upped his ground ball rate to 66 percent at Rochester and, in his brief September call-up, he was inducing grounders at a 75 percent clip with the Twins. So far this spring, Waldrop and ground-ball-riffic ways has made quite the impression on the coaching staff and teammates. According to MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger, following a cage session against the righty, Danny Valencia finished and told reporters that he has “late, heavy sink” which makes it tough to elevate the ball. Many ground ball pitchers seem to share this description from opponents, coaches and scouts alike. It seems more baseball speak than actually explaining why hitters are having troubles putting the ball in the air against him. Let’s take a look at Waldrop and see what factors into him becoming a ground ball monster. Following yet another clean outing in Fort Myers, manager Ron Gardenhire said of Waldrop “I think he just gets outs. He works quick and gets outs with a good angle.” Despite not dripping with much insight, Gardenhire’s assessment may have more to do with understanding how he is accomplishing this scorched-earth policy. The six-foot-five Waldrop has an excellent release point. In his major league debut last year, the Sportsvision’s pitch f/x camera system says that, on average, he released his pitches at six feet, seven inches high. [ATTACH=CONFIG]332[/ATTACH] That is a very high release point. To put that in perspective, Jon Rauch, baseball’s tallest indivudual at six-foot-ten, releases his pitches at six feet, seven-and-a-half inches high. In Ted Williams’ The Science of Hitting, published well before the avent of pitch f/x in 1970, the legendary hitter wrote that the majority of pitches are released somewhere between five feet, eight inches and six feet, six inches. Using that as a guideline, both Waldrop and Rauch are clearly above average in that department. Although they both share similar release points, the trajectory of their pitches favors Waldrop. Whereas Rauch’s came in at two feet, five inches on average, close to thigh high and in the middle third of the zone, Waldrop’s average pitch came in at two feet, two inches high – about slightly above the knee and in the lower third of the strike zone. Now this is the type of “downward plane” action that gets Bert all hot and bothered in the booth. More importantly, it is what makes hitters all hot and bothered. With that kind of fall and that kind of location, hitters have little choice but to hit the top half of the baseball, driving it into the ground. Yes, a strike out results in an out 100% of the time while a ground ball turns into an out roughly 76% of the time, however, neither can clear the fence on the fly and grounders do have a difficult time turning into extra base hits. Lacking the velocity (hitting 88.9 miles per hour on average) or the whiff-inducing breaking stuff, Waldrop has not gathered a ton of strike outs like most conventional prospective relief pitchers. Instead, he’s just keeping them from hitting it in the air – the next best thing. And that is his blueprint for success.

In just 134 innings in 2011, we witnessed how good Scott Baker can be as a starter. Of course, we also witnessed what has become the inevitable season-ending injury for the second-straight year. After having a procedure to remove bone chips from his elbow in 2010, Baker experienced discomfort in the pitching side elbow once again in 2011 and was sidelined, making just four appearances post-August. The hope coming into camp was that Baker would be fully healed for what is a pivotal year for the right-hander: This is the final year of his contract and at the end of the season, the Twins will have to decided whether or not to exercise a sizable $9.25 million option for 2013. Unfortunately, similar to last spring, concerns are once again flaring up for Baker as Joe Christensen reports, he was having an "inability to get loose" in Saturday's B-game start against the Pirates. Christensen also writes: While most pitchers have a bell-curve when it comes to velocity, starting lower in the spring before culminating in the warmer summer months, this is a significant drop-off and, combined with the worries of getting loose, raising larger flags for the team. As I wrote last year when this issue came to the forefront, many times bone chips and spurs are larger indications of elbow problems - the chips and spurs are often caused by loose UCLs, the Tommy John ligament, and a sign that something is not structurally sound in the elbow in general. The worst case scenario is that Baker will require some sort of procedure and miss a substantial portion of the season. The best case is that rest and slowing down his progress keeps his elbow healthy for the season's duration. Then again, the likelier scenario is that he has a similar season to the previous one where he manages to through 100-130 innings only to be shut down later on.

In just 134 innings in 2011, we witnessed how good Scott Baker can be as a starter. Of course, we also witnessed what has become the inevitable season-ending injury for the second-straight year. After having a procedure to remove bone chips from his elbow in 2010, Baker experienced discomfort in the pitching side elbow once again in 2011 and was sidelined, making just four appearances post-August. The hope coming into camp was that Baker would be fully healed for what is a pivotal year for the right-hander: This is the final year of his contract and at the end of the season, the Twins will have to decided whether or not to exercise a sizable $9.25 million option for 2013. Unfortunately, similar to last spring, concerns are once again flaring up for Baker as Joe Christensen reports, he was having an "inability to get loose" in Saturday's B-game start against the Pirates. Christensen also writes: While most pitchers have a bell-curve when it comes to velocity, starting lower in the spring before culminating in the warmer summer months, this is a significant drop-off and, combined with the worries of getting loose, raising larger flags for the team. As I wrote last year when this issue came to the forefront, many times bone chips and spurs are larger indications of elbow problems - the chips and spurs are often caused by loose UCLs, the Tommy John ligament, and a sign that something is not structurally sound in the elbow in general. The worst case scenario is that Baker will require some sort of procedure and miss a substantial portion of the season. The best case is that rest and slowing down his progress keeps his elbow healthy for the season's duration. Then again, the likelier scenario is that he has a similar season to the previous one where he manages to through 100-130 innings only to be shut down later on.

In spring training last year, New York Mets manager Terry Collins said that second base has become “an enormous offensive position. Some of the guys that have been playing there have been putting up huge numbers at second. It’s become an offensive position, so to me that’s a big piece of the puzzle.” In the American League, this has become exceedingly true. Players like Dustin Pedroia, Ian Kinsler and Robinson Cano have packed a wallop for their respective teams. The Twins meanwhile have fielded a group of players last year at second who posted a 610 OPS, well below the league’s average of 721. Clearly, the Twins are in need of some offensive contribution from the evolving position. Perhaps the team has recognized the way the trend is leaning as a reason why they moved prospect Eddie Rosario and his potent bat into the keystone position. But, while that may play out well in the long run, here in the present, the Twins need some stick. Recently, Twins Daily’s Nick Nelson continued his Position Analysis series by tackling the team’s second base spot, naming Alexi Casilla as the likely starter. In short, Nelson pointing out that Casilla has both the talent but at the same time the lack of consistency to hold down the job. Wrote Nelson: On both accounts, Nelson is spot on. Casilla’s track record in the minor leagues is fairly impressive. In a little under 2,000 plate appearances, the switch-hitting middle infielder posted a very good .296/.370/.371 batting line. While in the farm system, he demonstrated a strong strike zone recognition (walking in nine percent of his plate appearances) and an equally outstanding contact rate (striking out just 11 percent of his plate appearances). He lacked the power to be fawned over by prospect farmers but he contributed with his speed when possible, swiping 164 bags at a 75% success clip. On the other hand, when at the major league level, Casilla has shown just flashes of that talent – if only in small and disappointing doses. Early on, his position was secured in Ron Gardenhire’s doghouse as Casilla failed to show the stability in the field that has become so instilled as “the Twins way.” Handed the second base job in 2009, he went out and promptly hit .202/.280/.259 and pushed the team into starting Matt Tolbert and Nick Punto over him. Still, for all his faults, the Twins have hung on to him only to witness small bursts of his promising talent. For instance, in 2010, limited to just 69 games, he hit .276/.331/.395 and avoided the chopping block for one more season. When he was off to a horrendous start in 2011, hitting .167/.227/.200 through the first twenty games, it was widely believed that he had probably earned his way out of the organization and needed a change of scenery. Instead, Casilla made some mechanical adjustments and rebounded to the tune of .281/.344/.408 over his next 74 games before a hamstring injury knocked him out for the year. Considering the rollercoaster that has Casilla’s career, it’s hard to peg him down for 2012. While the rest of the Twins Daily community isn’t sold on his skill I (for some reason) remain optimistic that we are going to see a much improved Casilla this coming year. While never being one to rely on off-season league and spring training stats for any indication of future performance, Casilla has been impressive in both nevertheless. In his Dominican League stint, he produced a .336 batting average – which was the second-highest in the league – in addition to a .419 on-base percentage. Yes, the counterargument to this is that the island league is littered with wash-out major leaguers and clinging-to-life minor leaguers but it is reassuring that Casilla has managed to carry the adjustments he made in 2011 into the off-season. Likewise, Casilla’s current .438 spring average in the Grapefruit League in 17 plate appearances is a continuation of his winter league performance. And, yes, much like the winter league stats, the numbers posted in Florida mean little – but it is leaps and bounds better than his two prior spring performances in which in hit .200 (10-for-50) in 2011 and .135 (7-for-53) in 2010. Admittedly, in terms of optimism, that’s not a strong foundation to build a projection on. I’d rather be able to compare a high line drive rate and a suppressed batting average on balls in play from the previous season, similar to Danny Valencia’s 2011, in an effort to push positivity – something more concrete and substantial than basing it on that he has done well when it has not mattered. However, if we are looking for a sign or indication that Casilla is ready to marry his potential to his actual performance, this is a step in the right direction.

Question: Why is this graph smiling? Answer: Because its owner just locked in $10.3 million guaranteed. http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/theeight_1331276533_Perkins.png On Thursday morning, the Twins announced that they have extended Glen Perkins through 2015with an option for 2016. Heading into 2011, based on his substandard results such as his strike out rate, this would have been unheard of, a Twitter punch line among baseball fans. Glen Perkins to a multi-year deal? Get the eff out of here. Without question, it was hard to see this season coming. Take Baseball Prospectus - an entity that touts it as having “deadly accurate” predictions - and their forecast on Perkins: “Perkins clashed publicly with management in 2009, claiming that it had wrongfully downplayed the severity of his elbow injury. He then had an awful spring training and first half of the 2010 season at Triple-A before returning to the major leagues as a reliever late in the season. The real positive of 2010 was that Perkins regained velocity on his fastball (which averaged 92 mph) and improved the bite on his slider. This led to what was, by his standards, a successful September (11 innings, 11 strikeouts, 3.09 ERA). If there is a common thread to Perkins’ recent career, it is his inability to fool batters. They have hit .305 against him over the last three seasons and rarely strike out. Because he’s left-handed, Perkins will get his share of chances, be they from the Twins or other teams, but barring a continuation of his autumn activities, he’s just not a major-league pitcher.” This just goes to prove that even though you may be industry leaders in predicting performance it is still a very inexact science. Last spring, Perkins’ breakthrough started innocuously enough. At Fort Myers, his totals were bested slightly by the soon-to-be washed out Dusty Hughes. Hughes worked 12 innings, posting a 7/5 K/BB ratio with a .183 opponent average against while not allowing a run. Perkins, on the other hand, went 12 innings too with a good 7/3 K/BB ratio with a .238 average against. While those are both good, superficially, more people may be inclined to select Hughes rather than Perkins. And Baseball Prospectus was not alone on their assessment of Perkins. Unlike the national analysts who followed him from a far, many local bloggers who monitored his career more closely were also guilty of this egregious miscalculation of his career trajectory (present company included). His success in 2011 is a reminder to those of us who cull through the data to project players often forget about the drive that a player might have to stay at the highest level or the wherewithal to rebound from an injury. Rather than slinking into the Triple-A abyss or bouncing around from different organization to different organization, Glen Perkins went out and simply #PMKI. As Baseball Prospectus said, Perkins’ velocity in 2010 of 92 miles an hour did not stop there. It progress throughout the 2011 season, averaging 94 miles an hour and, according to Pitch F/X data, peaking, on August 10th as a 98 mile an hour bullet against David Ortiz. His arm had progressed well beyond what most experts had expected giving him a rejuvenated fastball and giving him a much better foundation to throw his secondary offerings. And it was the effects of his secondary pitch, his slider, which became the focal point of his reemergence. Baseball Prospectus observed that the “bite” had return but they had no idea of how impressive it would be combined with his now elite fastball. Fangraphs.com said his slider was evaluated as 9.9 runs above average – a mark that was eighth-best among qualified reliever. Because of the effectiveness of his slider, Perkins was able to manhandle right-handed opponents, often a difficult task for left-handed pitchers. Due to the movement and location of his slider, Perkins was able to induce a 32 percent chase rate of out of zone pitches by right-handed batters – the highest rate posted by a left-hander last season. As you can see in this example to the Brewers’ Casey McGahee, he was able to make it appear to be a knee-high fastball which would quickly fade into their ankles, leaving right-handers flailing away at nothingness. The results of his newfound (or rediscovered) stuff were nothing short of amazing. He went from a hurler who struck out hitters in the low-teens per plate appearance to one who was striking out more than 20 percent of opponents faced, putting him among the games top pitchers. What makes it more impressive is that he was able to handle both sides of the plate with ease. The future for Glen Perkins, just like it had been in the winter of 2010, is just as unclear. The Twins are hedging their bets that he sustains this breakout for the next four years. If that is the case, and he maintains his 1.7 WAR (which is “worth” approximately $7.8 million) he will undoubtedly outperform this contract extension. Then again, while the Twins have done well signing set-up men like Jesse Crain and Matt Guerrier in long-term deals, the front office seems to have a belief that relievers are a very inconsistent breed. After re-signing closer Matt Capps, who is coming off a down year, Terry Ryan said this: "[Capps] had an off year. I'm not trying to hide anything there. We just think he had an off year and we had a little bit of that last year. Relievers are like that a lot, and it's not just Matt. It happens many times." So Ryan and his staff understand the volatile nature of the relief business. The small sample size and the over-reliance on certain arms can lead to a down year and thus the team may wind up overpaying for his services. Clearly, having watched Perkins come up through the system and understanding what he is capable of, the Twins must be more comfortable in his potential in order to dole out that kind of cheddar to a relief pitcher who has had one year on record of success.

Question: Why is this graph smiling? Answer: Because its owner just locked in $10.3 million guaranteed. http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/theeight_1331276533_Perkins.png On Thursday morning, the Twins announced that they have extended Glen Perkins through 2015with an option for 2016. Heading into 2011, based on his substandard results such as his strike out rate, this would have been unheard of, a Twitter punch line among baseball fans. Glen Perkins to a multi-year deal? Get the eff out of here. Without question, it was hard to see this season coming. Take Baseball Prospectus - an entity that touts it as having “deadly accurate” predictions - and their forecast on Perkins: “Perkins clashed publicly with management in 2009, claiming that it had wrongfully downplayed the severity of his elbow injury. He then had an awful spring training and first half of the 2010 season at Triple-A before returning to the major leagues as a reliever late in the season. The real positive of 2010 was that Perkins regained velocity on his fastball (which averaged 92 mph) and improved the bite on his slider. This led to what was, by his standards, a successful September (11 innings, 11 strikeouts, 3.09 ERA). If there is a common thread to Perkins’ recent career, it is his inability to fool batters. They have hit .305 against him over the last three seasons and rarely strike out. Because he’s left-handed, Perkins will get his share of chances, be they from the Twins or other teams, but barring a continuation of his autumn activities, he’s just not a major-league pitcher.” This just goes to prove that even though you may be industry leaders in predicting performance it is still a very inexact science. Last spring, Perkins’ breakthrough started innocuously enough. At Fort Myers, his totals were bested slightly by the soon-to-be washed out Dusty Hughes. Hughes worked 12 innings, posting a 7/5 K/BB ratio with a .183 opponent average against while not allowing a run. Perkins, on the other hand, went 12 innings too with a good 7/3 K/BB ratio with a .238 average against. While those are both good, superficially, more people may be inclined to select Hughes rather than Perkins. And Baseball Prospectus was not alone on their assessment of Perkins. Unlike the national analysts who followed him from a far, many local bloggers who monitored his career more closely were also guilty of this egregious miscalculation of his career trajectory (present company included). His success in 2011 is a reminder to those of us who cull through the data to project players often forget about the drive that a player might have to stay at the highest level or the wherewithal to rebound from an injury. Rather than slinking into the Triple-A abyss or bouncing around from different organization to different organization, Glen Perkins went out and simply #PMKI. As Baseball Prospectus said, Perkins’ velocity in 2010 of 92 miles an hour did not stop there. It progress throughout the 2011 season, averaging 94 miles an hour and, according to Pitch F/X data, peaking, on August 10th as a 98 mile an hour bullet against David Ortiz. His arm had progressed well beyond what most experts had expected giving him a rejuvenated fastball and giving him a much better foundation to throw his secondary offerings. And it was the effects of his secondary pitch, his slider, which became the focal point of his reemergence. Baseball Prospectus observed that the “bite” had return but they had no idea of how impressive it would be combined with his now elite fastball. Fangraphs.com said his slider was evaluated as 9.9 runs above average – a mark that was eighth-best among qualified reliever. Because of the effectiveness of his slider, Perkins was able to manhandle right-handed opponents, often a difficult task for left-handed pitchers. Due to the movement and location of his slider, Perkins was able to induce a 32 percent chase rate of out of zone pitches by right-handed batters – the highest rate posted by a left-hander last season. As you can see in this example to the Brewers’ Casey McGahee, he was able to make it appear to be a knee-high fastball which would quickly fade into their ankles, leaving right-handers flailing away at nothingness. The results of his newfound (or rediscovered) stuff were nothing short of amazing. He went from a hurler who struck out hitters in the low-teens per plate appearance to one who was striking out more than 20 percent of opponents faced, putting him among the games top pitchers. What makes it more impressive is that he was able to handle both sides of the plate with ease. The future for Glen Perkins, just like it had been in the winter of 2010, is just as unclear. The Twins are hedging their bets that he sustains this breakout for the next four years. If that is the case, and he maintains his 1.7 WAR (which is “worth” approximately $7.8 million) he will undoubtedly outperform this contract extension. Then again, while the Twins have done well signing set-up men like Jesse Crain and Matt Guerrier in long-term deals, the front office seems to have a belief that relievers are a very inconsistent breed. After re-signing closer Matt Capps, who is coming off a down year, Terry Ryan said this: "[Capps] had an off year. I'm not trying to hide anything there. We just think he had an off year and we had a little bit of that last year. Relievers are like that a lot, and it's not just Matt. It happens many times." So Ryan and his staff understand the volatile nature of the relief business. The small sample size and the over-reliance on certain arms can lead to a down year and thus the team may wind up overpaying for his services. Clearly, having watched Perkins come up through the system and understanding what he is capable of, the Twins must be more comfortable in his potential in order to dole out that kind of cheddar to a relief pitcher who has had one year on record of success.

Nick Blackburn’s greatest redeeming quality is his ability to consume innings. Unfortunately, for the past two consecutive seasons, he has not come close to proving his worth in this department. When he was not sidelined by injuries, Blackburn pitched on either side of the spectrum for the Twins. One month - like May 2011 where he went 3-0 with a 2.53 ERA in 42 innings pitched - he would be dazzling, using his sinker effectively and keeping opponents off-balanced. The next month – like July in which he went 1-2 with a 7.45 ERA in 29 innings – he’d have fallen apart and was beaten senseless across the field. Naturally, injuries played a significant role in his bi-polar performances and helps explain his decline to some degree. But Blackburn has come into camp healthier following his second-straight offseason with an elbow procedure and, according to the Pioneer Press’s John Shipley, he has made a series of adjustments that they hope will improve his numbers against right-handed hitters: Shifting on the rubber is not an uncommon practice among pitchers. In 2011, pitch f/x guru Mike Fast found that some premier pitchers such as Cole Hamels, Clayton Kershaw and Justin Verlander all made in-season adjustments by shifting their starting point. In their cases, all three hurlers moved to the first base side of the rubber. By shifting to the middle, Blackburn is hoping to add a bit of deception to his repertoire to combat right-handed foes. And the changes are completely necessary for Blackie. Over the past two seasons, right-handers have feasted on his offerings. In 2010, they hit a robust .318/.352/.485 in 345 plate appearances. Those totals increased this past season when they hit .316/.362/.507 in 318 plate appearances. This is starkly different from his results pre-2010 when he last threw his slider successfully. While hiding the ball longer may improve his marks, having a secondary pitch such as his slider would likely go further towards curbing righties. Keep in mind that spring training is a time where promises are often made and the regular season is where they are not kept. Last year, Jose Mijares received glowing reviews about his new two-seamer. That did not exactly pan out for the big lefty. As the spring progresses, be sure to monitor how Blackburn fares against same-sided opponents.