Parker Hageman

[ATTACH=CONFIG]548[/ATTACH]Lily Rothman of Slate.com recently wrote a very interesting piece on the treatment of minor league baseball players and their plight to make ends meet. Rothman noted that these “hidden underclass of workers” make a salary comprising of $1,100 a month and receive that pay for only half the year. As opposed to their major league brethren, minor leaguers have little or no protection as a working class. There have been some players within the system who have championed for some labor changes. According to the article: The last player to talk seriously about minor-league unionization was Garrett Broshuis. In 2006, Broshuis was playing for the Connecticut Defenders, the AA affiliate of the San Francisco Giants. The pitcher, who was sharing an apartment with some teammates in a bad neighborhood in Norwich, Conn., got radicalized after an upstairs toilet clogged and flooded the place. “That was kind of the moment where I realized this isn’t really fair,” he remembers. “It’s not fair that I’m playing in front of seven or 8,000 people each night and making pennies.” Broshuis, who is a good follow on Twitter, tried to make some inroads with his fellow minor leaguers and convince them that unionizing was in their best interest. Nothing came of it. Things are even worse for the independent leaguers who do not have the incentive of being within a major league team’s system, you get little pay and no assurance that you may have a chance of reaching the next level: But there will always be players like Tom Zebroski, a 45th-round draft pick by the Kansas City Royals in 2010. As a first-year player, he made $1,100 a month before taxes, and his bonus wasn’t any bigger. Zebroski had promised himself he would never play in an independent league, with no direct route to the big leagues and even less money than you get in the minors. But when he got released by the Royals last year, Zebroski changed his mind. He decided to work in the offseason to save up for the chance to have a chance. “It's one of those things that, if you give it up before you're ready to, you'll be questioning yourself,” he says. “Like, what if I'd done this, what if I'd done that, what if I'd given it one more year?” He now plays for the Traverse City Beach Bums in the Frontier League, where the salary cap is $75,000 per team and the minimum salary is $600 a month. Books like Dirk Hayhurst’s Bullpen Gospels and Out Of My League in addition to Matt McCarthy’s Odd Man Out provide inside glimpses to the world of a minor leaguer. Most of us consider these players extremely fortunate to be doing what they do for a living but forget that because of the lack of pay, they are often living three deep in a one bedroom apartment and sustaining off of peanut butter sandwiches. Here at Twins Daily, we are lucky to have a consortium of minor league players who have provided us a look into their on-field experience (and a bit of the off-field summertime work) but I think it would be interesting to hear about the day-to-day life of a minor leaguer away from the ballpark. Is it really as grim as Rothman portrays it, or is it similar to a college experience where you are eating wish sandwiches (you know, “boy I wish this Ramen was a sandwich”) and living off of well short of $1,000 a month that minor leaguers make? It sounded like squalid living reflecting back on it now but at the time you just rolled with the punches. Perhaps that is how minor league life is as well. Either way, the Slate.com article is an interesting read and it is a topic worth mulling over.

On Thursday, Ron Gardenhire announced his opening day lineup. Giving it the once over, you will notice that the lineup is filled with “professional” hitters, a start contrast to the motley crew that the manager was forced to field at the end of last year. Headlining names like Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Denard Span have returned. It is deep enough that Chris Parmelee, who hit in the heart of the order in September, is batting eighth. With the offseason additions of Josh Willingham, Ryan Doumit and Jamey Carroll, there is optimism that this offense will not finish at the bottom of the league in runs scored. [ATTACH=CONFIG]523[/ATTACH]Of course, while the offense is providing some warm fuzzies, it’s the pitching staff that is the real concern. And it’s already off to an ominous start. Scott Baker, in efforts to rehab an arm issue he experienced this spring, made a start for the Ft Myers Miracle yesterday. It did not go well. Just 11 pitches into the outing, he was pulled, stating he was unable to get loose. The News-Press’s David Dorsey tweeted that Miracle manager Jake Mauer said “the radar guns were 80 to 84 or whatever the heck it was. He wasn’t comfortable at all.” There is no clarity as to what is actually wrong with Baker, either. Earlier in the day, general manager Terry Ryan was on KFAN with Dan Barreiro and said, of Baker, “the only concern I have is that he’s not injured. There’s nothing wrong; we’ve done all the test and so forth.” Baker’s situation is starting to sound somewhat similar to Glen Perkins’ plight in 2010. That season, Perkins complained about shoulder pain which sidelined him for an extended period of time and drew the ire of Twins officials who were “privately questioning his pain tolerance and willingness to compete.” As we know, Perkins rebounded swimmingly, assuming the set-up man’s position in the bullpen and earning himself a three-year deal after a terrific 2011 season. Baker, meanwhile, has now had multiple seasons now end with arm issues and this one, much like Perkins in 2010, does not have a clear diagnosis. Is he now receiving the Perkins treatment from the team’s inner circle? In August of last year, Baker headed for the disabled list, saying that he noticed a “lack of velocity and less sharpness in his breaking pitches.” Back then he was still hitting the upper-80s despite the discomfort. This spring, the radar gun has said he has been at 86 miles per hour and below. As someone who lives up in the zone and allows a high percentage of fly balls, the drop in velocity would be fuel to the fire. It’s frustrating, as Ryan told Barreiro, because despite throwing just over 130 innings last year, Baker was undoubtedly the rotation’s lone bright spot through the first half of the season. He was a breath of fresh air as a strikeout pitcher (whiffing 22.5% of batters faced) in a sea of contact artists (Carl Pavano, Nick Blackburn) and zone avoiders (Francisco Liriano). Now it appears there is no timeline in which Baker will recover in the near future. His absence will also further highlight the Twins lack of depth in the system when it comes to the starting rotation. Liam Hendriks, who pitched decently in September, will assume his spot however, if any other injuries crop up, there is little left in the farm system to replace them. There are no Matt Garzas, Kevin Sloweys or Francisco Lirianos waiting in the wings. And what of the bullpen? A year ago, the reinforcements blew 20 save opportunities and were responsible for 28 losses (the most in the American League) while allowing 4.96 runs per game (the second most in the AL). Have the Twins improved themselves in this area? Matt Capps’ spring - following up a tumultuous 2011 season - has not reassured fans much that he’s turned things around. Likewise, the one pitcher who may have added a dominating force to last year’s group, Joel Zumaya, lasted 13 spring pitches. The Twins have also lost Joe Nathan and have not replaced him with a similar right-handed reliever. This doesn’t inspire much confidence, does it? Well, you are not alone in that sentiment. Ryan was also equally as uncertain by the unit he put together. “The biggest question is the bullpen,” said Ryan Thursday afternoon over the airwaves. “The bullpen has a bunch of question marks…I’m worried about the bullpen just like you are.” At the very least, the honesty is refreshing. It’s not like the front office is trying to feed us a spoon full of sugar to help the medicine go do. The reality is this pitching staff may very well leave a bitter taste.

While many fans will be focusing their attention on the more mainstream topics such as Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau’s health, Denard Span’s lingering concussion effects and Francisco Liriano’s resurgence, here are five things you can point out to your buddies as you watch games this month to make you seem like a genuine hipster seamhead: (1) Nick Blackburn’s adjustments and repertoire. Much has been made this spring about Blackburn’s shift on the rubber from the first base side to the middle. While this may help him hit a few spots with his sinking fastball that he was not afforded from a few inches to the left, what you should really watch for is his new “over-the-top” arm action that he has transitioned towards. In addition to his health, this might be the biggest attribute for a rebound season in 2012. Why would this have anything influence? A more “over-the-top” arm action would translate into a higher release point and, much like I described with Kyle Waldrop, the higher release point combined with good sink gives hitters less of the ball to hit through the hitting zone and should lead to more ground balls and missed bats. Blackburn’s spring numbers has been impressive, for whatever emphasis you want to put on them. In 17 innings, he’s racked up a decent 12/4 K/BB ratio while allowing just four runs. Perhaps more importantly than those numbers was the pitching work behind them. In addition to getting gobs of grounders according to Phil Mackey’s statistics Blackburn held opponents to a 73% contact rate in Grapefruit League play, a rate that is significantly better than his regular season performance (he has a 88.4% contact rate). The question is, has his healthy arm allowed him to throw his slider again - a pitch he hasn’t thrown with regularly or effectiveness since 2009 - thereby incited more swing and misses this spring? Or has the new arm angle resulted in added movement? Is there some other factor in play? Blackburn’s new release point was on display during this spring’s Yankees broadcast. Unfortunately, MLB.tv did not archive the game in order to properly dissect and compare it to his previous motion. On the other hand, Blackburn is scheduled to pitch on April 9th at the home opener so there will be ample opportunity to begin examining the changes in both his arm action through the video as well as the movement results through pitch f/x system. (2) Alexi Casilla’s left-side leg kick. A week ago I wrote that Twins fans may be surprised at what Casilla may be capable of offensively. This was based on the highly volatile offseason league performance that provides little confidence in basing any conclusion off of: He finished the spring with a .300 average in a little under 50 plate appearances and, surprise!, an ailing hamstring that kept him out of play for the final games of the warm-up circuit. Despite the injury, he’s scheduled to be ready by opening weekend. One of the reasons I cling to some hope for Casilla was his emergence last year. After spending most of 2010 and 2011 performing like the slap-hitting second baseman we’ve come to expect, he made some adjustments to his left-handed swing which had the ball jumping off his bat. From May 1 onward, Casilla hit an impressive .281/.344/.408 in just shy of 300 plate appearances. Needless to say, the post-May 1 Casilla would be a great addition to the Twins lineup. The question is will he show up? Watch Casilla from the left-side of the plate. If he is stepping toward the pitcher prior to the pitch being thrown, he’s using a high-contact but low-impact type of swing that does not engage the lower half. If he is striding after the pitch is thrown, as he did post-May 1 last season, that’s a much more able to produce power (doubles power, let’s not get carried away here) from his legs and hips. (3) Scott Baker’s fastball velocity. After being one of the bright spots in the Twins rotation for half the season last year, because of his barking elbow, Baker will start the 2012 season on the disabled list. Spring has not been kind to him. His fastball’s velocity, the best pitch in his repertoire, had abandoned him, residing at 85-88 miles an hour in camp. That’s a range that has been well-below Baker’s standard average velocity in-season. Dating back to 2007, there were just a handful of outings in which the right-hander fell below the 90 mile per hour mark, most, I suspect, were injury related. [ATTACH=CONFIG]494[/ATTACH] Meanwhile, in 2010, we witnessed what happens when he was unable to control his fastball and he was splattered across the diamond. Perhaps because of both location and the velocity, Baker was pummeled in his limited amount of work this spring – allowing seven hits, two for home runs, while striking out just one. This is disheartening for multiple reasons but biggest is that the promise he flashed in 2011 would be a welcomed addition to this rotation. Baker will make a start on Thursday with the Ft Myers Miracle and, if all goes well, he will be set to rejoin the team. If he makes it back to Minnesota this month, be sure to watch both the radar gun readings as well as where the catcher’s target is and where his fastball ends up. (4) Ryan Doumit’s plate discipline. Earlier this week I documented Doumit’s plate discipline improvements last year in Pittsburgh in conjunction with the increase in walks this spring. Obviously, this may be nothing more than a small sample size occurrence however, keep an eye on his at bats in April. Like Doumit, former Twin Jason Kubel had a similar experience last spring and while it did not translate into more walks during the regular season, Kubel came out and had a torrid first month. In his first 102 plate appearances, Kubel hit .351/.392/.511 with nine doubles and two home runs. Clearly, Kubel was dialed in and recognized what was “his pitch.” Even if his spring walks do not manifest into regular season walks, the meaningless free passes may be a sign that Doumit is seeing the ball well and laying off of breaking balls, off-the-plate fastballs and other trickery from the pitchers. The telling point will be if he is driving the ones that he chooses to swing at. (5) Matt Capps’ new pitch [ATTACH=CONFIG]495[/ATTACH]While watching him warm up a week ago Tuesday at Ed Smith Stadium in Sarasota, a stadium which allows fans to saddle up next to the bullpen and view the pitcher’s getting loose from an amazing vantage point, I noticed Capps was tossing a few split-finger fastballs - an offering that was not among his regular arsenal. He’d let a few go and then confer with the bullpen coach about release or movement or whatever. Monitoring from above the pitcher’s mound, you could see that these pitches were moving fairly well down and in to right-handed hitters, a stark difference in comparison to his fastball and slider. For the most part, Capps has been a pitcher who has labored up in the zone. With mostly a fastball-slider combination and a forearm injury to boot, he struggled to (1) get hitters to miss (his swinging strike rate dropped from above 9% to 6% in 2011) and (2) getting ground balls (his ground ball rate plummeted from 50% to 40%). When he was on the mound, the bats were loud. The hope is that the splitty will provide a bit of speed deception as well as enough movement to entice a few more swing and misses. Unfortunately, new pitches are not always a magic elixir for what ails you. A year ago, Jose Mijares and the coaching staff raved about his new two-seamed fastball that was supposedly going to help him battled right-handed hitters better. That did not pan out so well for the newly minted Kansas City Royal. Most spring on-lookers have agreed that opponents have continued to make noise off of Capps, including nailing four home runs off of him. This may be a byproduct of him “trying new things” out there - including incorporating his splitty – but, if this continues into April, the more ominous question is if his arm is 100%. Watch for more two-strike splitters from Capps this April. The only impediment is if hitters continue to obliterate the ball before he gets to two strikes.

Thanks for the boob...er...Thome pic. Glad to see those are still around. Gotta agree with Lein, that's a circle change - for whatever reason he tucks his pinky in.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]480[/ATTACH]When the Twins signed Ryan Doumit, they gained a switch-hitter who had a modern level of pop and decent batting average ability thanks to a high line drive rate. What they did not necessarily sign was a patient hitter who has been able to coax walks. The former Pittsburgh Pirate has held a 6.8% walk rate for his career, a mark that is slightly below the average of 8%. However, this spring, bolstered by nine walks in 54 plate appearances, Doumit has turned in a 15% walk rate. Could Doumit have turned a corner in his career? Has he added another dimension to his offensive game? Maybe this is a step forward for Doumit. While we should never base anything on a sampling of 50 plate appearances, who’s to say that the switch-hitter has not honed his strike zone judgment or made a conceited effort to improve his discipline? Interestingly enough, Doumit’s plate discipline numbers from a year ago paint a story of a hitter who has been scrutinizing pitches more. According to Fangraphs.com, prior to the 2011 season, Doumit had an out-of-zone swing rate of over 32% in each of the previous three seasons, a rate well above the average. This past season, he whittled that down to 26%, which was below the average. So it is possible that the walks amassed in Florida are the fruits of his labors that he implemented in 2011 but it seems unlikely. This is spring training. It is chock full of erratic pitchers, minor league arms who may be intimidated of major leaguers and those who are just “working on things”. Doumit’s sudden spike in a little over 50 plate appearances has little or no statistical bearings on his future production. After all, players have monster springs more often than not regress to their true levels. Consider this: a year ago, Jason Repko drew a team-high 10 walks in Grapefruit League action – a whopping 15% walk rate for the fourth outfielder. When the regular season rolled around and those pitchers who lack command were vetted, Repko’s walk rate came crashing back down to earth, finishing the year with a 4.2% walk rate over his 144 plate appearances. What’s more is that there are not a lot of hitters who have had a sudden and sustained walk rate spike in the middle of their careers. The Oakland A’s Moneyball philosophy was to draft patient hitters because they could “teach” power (or inject them with steroids or whatever) but they could not teach discipline. Doumit, while sporting an 8% walk rate in the minors, is unlikely to have his numbers transform radically this late in his career. So, will Doumit’s spring patience carry into the regular season? It’s improbable, but not impossible. In the end, he likely finishes the year with a walk rate close to his career average of 7%.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]427[/ATTACH]After months of expecting Josh Willingham to move from left field, the outfield position he has played the most in his career, across the turf to right field, Ron Gardenhire has switched courses on that plan. Back in February, Gardenhire acknowledged that the experiment of moving Willingham to right field might not work but that they would be ready if he would be unable to adapt to the new position: "That's what we are going to do. We're going to try to figure this out in Spring Training. We're going to start out this way and if it looks like it's working OK and he's getting used to that, he'll be out in right field. But if it looks like he's not comfortable in right field, I know the other guys can do it for a fact." Prior to Sunday's game, the Twins manager said that Willingham would be his left fielder and not his right fielder has was initially intended. "Let's call Josh Willingham my left fielder," Gardenhire said before Sunday afternoon's game with the Cardinals at Roger Dean Stadium. Those who have watched him play have rated his arm as being below average. According to Fangraphs.com's Fans Scouting Report his Arm Strength has rated a 45 on a scale of 100 and an even slower release (40). This is not exactly ideal for right field play where those individuals have to make the longer throw to third base in addition to home plate making his transfer back to left field a better idea. Of course, voters think little of his range as well. In those categories - First Step and Speed - Willingham rated 34 and 37 respectively. Meanwhile, the BillJamesOnline.net Plus/Minus system says that he has had troubles over his career in left going back on balls, finishing -21 on deep balls dating back to 2008. Perhaps it was one of both of these factors that played a role in Gardenhire's decision to move Willingham back to his more familiar position. So who is going to be the starting right fielder? Gardenhire said the race is between the hot-hitting Chris Parmelee, Trevor Plouffe and Ben Revere (who is likely going to wind up the team's fourth outfielder, according to the team's assistant general manager Rob Antony on 1500ESPN.com). Parmelee's clearly earned an opportunity to play for this team with both is previous September performance as well as his torrid spring. However, he is fairly raw when it comes to outfield play. In the past two years in the minors, he's played 57 games in right field. His range factor of 1.86 (RF/G) over his full minor league playing time in right suggests that he isn't a significant liability (by comparison Michael Cuddyer's career range factor in right is 1.87) but he's not going to be a coverage guy in the field either. Likewise Plouffe is also green when it comes to the outfield position, having only played 21 games in the outfield in his professional career. Revere, who was the early favorite over the winter, had worked hard during the offseason to get his arm strength up to snuff (whereas Willingham's rated a 45 on Arm Strength, Revere was rated a 4) but the organization seems to have cooled on the idea of him being a starter. While he has been an amazing fly-tracker, reports from Fort Myers is that Revere is struggling when he has to charge balls on the ground. Although neither Gardenhire nor Antony mentioned this in their discussion of the outfield alignment, Ryan Doumit's name will very likely be mixed in the lineup in the outfield - particularly if Justin Morneau is a DH and Parmelee is shifted to first base. After dishing out $4 million to him, there is little doubt in my mind that they attempt to get him into the lineup more than two times a week to allow Mauer to rest. For the more fly-ball oriented pitchers on this staff, this alignment should raise their anxiety levels just a bit. With Revere and Span, the pitchers had some reassurance that more fly balls would find leather. Now, the gaps are going to get a little bigger. The hope, of course, is that with this alignment, the Twins should have a more potent offense that would off-set the defensive liability.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]418[/ATTACH]Following Monday’s 0-for-2 performance, lowering his spring batting average to .100, Justin Morneau addressed his struggles: "It's gotten better. It's not where I want it to be yet. The swing's getting better. The swing feels a lot better than it did when I first got down here. It's a process, it's moving along. I just have to keep telling myself that it's slow, and just because it's not here now doesn't mean it's not going to be here a week from now." Sound familiar? A year ago, Morneau was coming off a serious concussion injury and slowly easing back into the game in mid-March. For the majority of the time in Florida in 2011, he struggled. He failed to leave the yard in his 11 games and batted .152 but managed to knock a trifecta of doubles. Reflecting on his performance, told the Star Tribune’s LaVelle E Neal that his “timing is starting to come .” Despite his claim to the contrary, in the regular season Morneau’s timing never came. As of this past Monday, his results have continued to plummet (down to .091 after yesterday’s 0-for-3 game), sending a ripple of concern through the Minnesota fan base that the timing may never come. For those looking for some reassurance, you can turn to the fact that it is hard to put too much stock into the small sample size that is spring training. Additionally, Morneau has never been a fast starter when it comes to spring training (dating back to 2006 and MLB.com’s statistical database). Perhaps the Canadians have a tough time adjusting to the Gulf Coast heat. With the exception of his 2009 spring in which he hit three home runs and slugged over .700, he has been somewhat of a disappointment each March. Nevertheless, he has still managed to come out and perform admireably once the calender flips to April. Take is 2010 spring for instance. That year he posted a batting average of .160 (albeit tagging three home runs). Even though he had what could be considered a slow start, he was blazing through the league, hitting .345/.437/.618 with 18 home runs prior to his run-in with John MacDonald’s knee. Morneau and the media on-lookers in Fort Myers are trying to sell hope. “It’s close” is the clear message. Back on March 16th Neal said in his blog that Morneau “swung the bat with murderous intentions tonight, which could be a sign that his timing is coming around to the point where he's comfortable with letting it fly.” Morneau told reporters after Monday’s game that “I think I've just kind of let it fly and hit some balls hard - hit some balls hard at people, hit some balls hard foul. I guess that's a pretty good sign. Especially yesterday, I pulled the ball foul. I hadn't done that in a long time." Likewise, following yesterday’s contest, 1500ESPN.com’s Phil Mackey described Morneau’s outs as “scalded” and hit “hard.” These are positive signs, are they not? After all, hard hit balls eventually turn into hits. Then again, while that sounds comforting, this has been a historically bad spring output for the first baseman. He has never not hit an extra base hit in spring training. He has never had a sub-.100 batting average. What’s more, he has never had to recover from a concussion, wrist surgery and pain in his neck, shoulder, knees and toes (knees and toes). If he was not be able to shake the concussion alone last year to regain his timing, what is to lead us to believe he will overcome all four ailments to rebound in 2012?

That would be a pretty potent lineup. You should compare what the cost would be to have kept that group intact.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]405[/ATTACH]After sending Tsuyoshi Nishioka to Rochester, many fans began to think that Brian Dozier may have done enough this spring to entice the powers that be to include him on the major league roster. On Tuesday, manager Ron Gardenhire squelched that notion. According to the Star Tribune’s Joe Christensen’s tweet which paraphrased Gardenhire’s comments on the situation, the Twins will not be bringing Dozier northward but rather sending him to Rochester to start the season. The Twins’ manager added that the team would not hesitate to summon Dozier if anything should happen to either Jamey Carroll or Alexi Casilla. This would allow for Dozier to be a starter rather than a utility player for the parent club. Dozier, 24, made offensive progress in 2011 after his promotion to Double-A New Britain. There, he worked with hitting coach Tom Brunansky to develop more power. Said Dozier of the former Twins’ instructions: "When I got to Double-A, my swing kind of changed,'' Dozier said. "I started to develop into my swing. I worked with Tom Brunansky and it really took off for me. I developed more power and was driving balls more than I was used to.'' Unfortunately, no video exists of Dozier’s post-Double A swing so we cannot provide a full breakdown of his mechanics. What we can see statistically is that whatever changes that were made, it resulted in much improved power numbers although at the small expense of his on-base percentage and batting average. While in High-A Fort Myers, Dozier hit a solid .322/.417/.472. Once he was moved to New Britain, he hit a very good .318/.376/.502. While the walk rate dropped (from 12.4% to 8.0%) and the strike out rate grew (from 9.2% to 13.1%) his power output increased substantially (his isolated power swelled from .150 to .184). This might be something that you would expect from working under Brunansky’s tutelage as Bruno himself had a lot of all-or-nothing type swing in him (leading to a low-batting average/on-base percentage and high-slugging combination over his career). Of course, that is not to say that Dozier is following in Brunansky’s footprints, after all, the change in competition level may have as much to do with the shift in his peripheral numbers as anything. However, the change in the way the ball was coming off his bat may be the biggest outcome of the swing modification. Pre-New Britain, Dozier was knocking the ball into the ground closer to the 50% mark over his career. For a speedy middle infielder, this is not necessarily a bad thing. Since his time in New Britain, that ground ball rate has dropped to below-40%, meaning he is elevating the ball far more often than usual and, hence, the sudden increase in home runs (seven in 351 plate appearances) and extra base hits. So whatever adjustments were made, so far, it has paid off. With Brunansky moved to Rochester to handle the team’s most ready minor league prospects, sending Dozier back to work with the man who helped improve his swing and continue to put the final touches on it is not the worst outcome.