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Everything posted by Parker Hageman
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Twins Daily was created with non-clubhouse types in mind
Parker Hageman commented on Parker Hageman's blog entry in Over the Baggy
Yeah, that's the kind of stuff I'm talking about. -
Who are you going to believe? Me or your own eyes?
Parker Hageman commented on dwintheiser's blog entry in Blog dwintheiser
Gee, I feel slighted. -
Twins Daily was created with non-clubhouse types in mind
Parker Hageman commented on Parker Hageman's blog entry in Over the Baggy
Its the beauty of being a sports fan, period. -
Twins Daily was created with non-clubhouse types in mind
Parker Hageman commented on Parker Hageman's blog entry in Over the Baggy
Twins Daily’s Seth Stohs tweeted that this morning on ESPN1500’s Judd & Phunn show, co-host Joe Anderson, aka “Phunn”, “just bashed blogs and big-timed all fans for not being in the clubhouse.” Anderson apparently said that only then could bloggers and fans have opinions. Not having heard the rant live (you can likely go to the show’s webpage and catch it on-demand shortly), I cannot comment on the overall tone of Anderson’s remarks. He’s a radio guy that is likely making a statement just to push the envelope and rile people up. All in all, it’s likely not worth the time reacting to it. But, still, I feel as if I must. As a blogger, I do find his take unenlightened. We at TwinsCentric strive to put out high quality content that goes beyond the brick and mortar of the confines of the clubhouse. John Bonnes has done extensive studies on the team’s payroll. No need to access the clubhouse for that. Seth Stohs has limitless connections within and knowledge of the team’s minor league system that puts many in the Twins organization to shame. No need for clubhouse access for him. Nick Nelson provides unparalleled commentary on the team that does not require him to be in the pressbox nightly. Beyond our group are plenty of other writers who have used the internet to provide outstanding insight without ever having had stepped foot in a locker room of any sport. Certainly there is a genre of bloggers and fans that light up the internets or radio lines to offer their opinions that may have no grounding in reality. They may be out of left field but that does not mean they don’t have the right to have those opinions. Here at Twins Daily, we welcome those opinions – no matter how off-base they may be (just so they are not off-color). We hope you contribute all of your information. Having clubhouse access is not a prerequisite for providing thoughtful commentary or analysis. -
Twins Daily was created with non-clubhouse types in mind
Parker Hageman posted a blog entry in Over the Baggy
Twins Daily’s Seth Stohs tweeted that this morning on ESPN1500’s Judd & Phunn show, co-host Joe Anderson, aka “Phunn”, “just bashed blogs and big-timed all fans for not being in the clubhouse.” Anderson apparently said that only then could bloggers and fans have opinions. Not having heard the rant live (you can likely go to the show’s webpage and catch it on-demand shortly), I cannot comment on the overall tone of Anderson’s remarks. He’s a radio guy that is likely making a statement just to push the envelope and rile people up. All in all, it’s likely not worth the time reacting to it. But, still, I feel as if I must. As a blogger, I do find his take unenlightened. We at TwinsCentric strive to put out high quality content that goes beyond the brick and mortar of the confines of the clubhouse. John Bonnes has done extensive studies on the team’s payroll. No need to access the clubhouse for that. Seth Stohs has limitless connections within and knowledge of the team’s minor league system that puts many in the Twins organization to shame. No need for clubhouse access for him. Nick Nelson provides unparalleled commentary on the team that does not require him to be in the pressbox nightly. Beyond our group are plenty of other writers who have used the internet to provide outstanding insight without ever having had stepped foot in a locker room of any sport. Certainly there is a genre of bloggers and fans that light up the internets or radio lines to offer their opinions that may have no grounding in reality. They may be out of left field but that does not mean they don’t have the right to have those opinions. Here at Twins Daily, we welcome those opinions – no matter how off-base they may be (just so they are not off-color). We hope you contribute all of your information. Having clubhouse access is not a prerequisite for providing thoughtful commentary or analysis. -
On Saturday, Joel Zumaya, the Twins key bullpen addition of the offseason, prepared to throw live batting practice for the first time in the spring. After 13 pitches, he was headed off the mound and into an MRI machine. News broke on Sunday that the injury, a snapped UCL, would require Tommy John surgery and that it would end his 2012 Comeback Player of the Year campaign, his time with the Twins and, very likely, his career. Because of his extensive history with injuries, this news did not come as a surprise to anyone. General Manager Terry Ryan seemed a bit perplex that it had happened to his UCL, the one area of his body that he has never had an issue with: [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] However, based on his mechanics, the result that Zumaya blew out his ulnar collateral ligament should not have been entirely unexpected. Notice that when he enters his load position, his elbow is pulled up and back away from his shoulder level (the pitcher’s driveline). This arm action has been deemed the “Inverted V” – designated such because of the V-shape a pitcher’s throwing arm makes when in the cocked position (this is different than the more readily known Inverted W in that a pitcher’s glove side arm remains straight). What this does is create improper timing in his delivery thereby putting an increased amount of pressure on his shoulder and elbow. In 2008, Chris O’Leary studied Zumaya’s mechanics and broke down the video clips only to find that this motion indeed throws off his timing. Since then, Zumaya has had shoulder ailments and the exploding elbow cap. On February 20, ESPN1500’s Phil Mackey grabbed some video of the Twins’ new acquisition throwing in the bullpen. The brief clip showed Zumaya with a big reduction in the elevation of his pitching elbow at the cocked position. At the time, I was optimistic that all of the injuries inspired him to make some changes in his delivery. When Francisco Liriano came back from his Tommy John surgery, he too toned down his arm action. Baseball-Intellect.com posted in April 2008 showing that pre-injury Liriano had significant horizontal loading while bringing his elbow above his shoulder level. Upon his return, he reduced the horizontal loading and would keep his elbow at or below his shoulder level. Whether this was a designed attempt to avoid further injury or simply the post-surgery aftermath limiting his range of motion is unknown. Based on that notion, I thought maybe – just maybe – Zumaya had made some improvements that would keep him on the field a bit longer in 2012. Of course, five days later he would take the mound to throw his first live session of the spring only to leave clutching his elbow. Mackey also captured video of Zumaya warming up for that session. Unfortunately, Zumaya, now clearly pushing closer to max effort which may have been the reason for the lowered loading point from the previous video, unleashed a fastball and the Inverted V arm action was prevalent once again: The camera angle does not provide a great view but you can see that at this loading point, Zumaya has his elbow well above his shoulder-line, almost to the peak of his head. Now, I am not suggesting that this specific injury occur just because he was throwing with this particular arm action. There are plenty of other factors that played in such as the fact that he was recovering from a past elbow surgery and the UCL could have been in a weakened state. Yet, the years of improper mechanics and rushing through his delivery likely took a toll on the UCL – stretching it out like rubber band – and waited for the right pitch to snap. To be sure, there are split viewpoints from mechanics experts on the effects of the inverted arm motion. Some, like Carlos Gomez – a former Hardball Times writer turned pro scout – and pitching instructor Paul Nyman, have encouraged this practice as they say it adds velocity or helps throw more effective breaking balls. So there may be plenty of people inside baseball who actually view this as a positive in a pitcher – which may or may not be the Twins perspective as well. In addition to Zumaya, the Twins also recently targeted Nationals closer Drew Storen. Understandably, Storen has been wildly successful in his first two seasons in Washington and will remain inexpensive for some time as he stays under club control. On the other hand, Storen’s delivers with the Inverted W arm motion which leaves his open to various injuries. If the Twins were to trade off Denard Span for the closer – as the rumors went last year anyways – they would be trading a valuable player, inexpensive in his own right, for a commodity that has a higher potential to tear up his elbow or shoulder than other pitchers. This raises the larger question of the influence of mechanics, player acquisition and development. In his book The Extra 2%, Jonah Keri delves into the inner workings of the Tampa Bay Rays organization and how the franchise turned itself from being the league’s laughingstock to a model for other teams. During the massive turnaround, the Rays implemented new practices throughout the business. One area that received a lot of attention was the health of their pitchers from top to bottom in their system. They challenged some of baseball’s well-accepted practices such as limiting rehabbing pitchers to throwing no more than 120 feet while long-tossing and diligently creating individualized pitch counts for developing arms. The results were no short of amazing. From late-2005 through mid-2009, only one pitcher at any level in the system, Jacob McGee, required Tommy John surgery. Part of the credit went to the minor league instructors who created and executed the plan but a significant amount of credit goes to the scouts and front office who found many of these pitchers through the draft or as a free agent signing. In attempting to achieve that extra 2%, Keri writes that the Rays have made some interesting personnel hires for their front office staff, including the likes of Josh Kalk whose expertise in the pitch f/x system has been utilized to potentially spot patterns that may lead to injuries. Given the fact that the Rays hired a guy for what was said to be a “professor’s salary” to track release points, it would be expected that the team probably has a person on staff to monitor mechanics and advises against players like Zumaya who exhibit the traits that could lead to injuries. Admittedly, at $400,000, the Twins had little to lose with their gamble on Zumaya’s recovery. At the same time, because the 2012 budget was extremely tight and the team was limited to just signing just Zumaya as their only right-handed set-up man, the gamble was amplified beyond the fiscal investment. Even without going back to his long list of injuries, the Inverted V provided an additional layer of discomfort when heading into a season relying on a guy for a critical bullpen role. Had the Twins organization been more vigilant of this, they may have opted to sign one of the other bullpen arms instead of Zumaya or, at the very least, one as an insurance policy.
-
Behind Joel Zumaya's elbow blowout
Parker Hageman commented on Parker Hageman's blog entry in Over the Baggy
On Saturday, Joel Zumaya, the Twins key bullpen addition of the offseason, prepared to throw live batting practice for the first time in the spring. After 13 pitches, he was headed off the mound and into an MRI machine. News broke on Sunday that the injury, a snapped UCL, would require Tommy John surgery and that it would end his 2012 Comeback Player of the Year campaign, his time with the Twins and, very likely, his career. Because of his extensive history with injuries, this news did not come as a surprise to anyone. General Manager Terry Ryan seemed a bit perplex that it had happened to his UCL, the one area of his body that he has never had an issue with: However, based on his mechanics, the result that Zumaya blew out his ulnar collateral ligament should not have been entirely unexpected. [ATTACH=CONFIG]205[/ATTACH]Notice that when he enters his load position, his elbow is pulled up and back away from his shoulder level (the pitcher’s driveline). This arm action has been deemed the “Inverted V” – designated such because of the V-shape a pitcher’s throwing arm makes when in the cocked position (this is different than the more readily known Inverted W in that a pitcher’s glove side arm remains straight). What this does is create improper timing in his delivery thereby putting an increased amount of pressure on his shoulder and elbow. In 2008, Chris O’Leary studied Zumaya’s mechanics and broke down the video clips only to find that this motion indeed throws off his timing. Since then, Zumaya has had shoulder ailments and the exploding elbow cap. On February 20, ESPN1500’s Phil Mackey grabbed some video of the Twins’ new acquisition throwing in the bullpen. The brief clip showed Zumaya with a big reduction in the elevation of his pitching elbow at the cocked position. [ATTACH=CONFIG]204[/ATTACH] At the time, I was optimistic that all of the injuries inspired him to make some changes in his delivery. When Francisco Liriano came back from his Tommy John surgery, he too toned down his arm action. Baseball-Intellect.com posted in April 2008 showing that pre-injury Liriano had significant horizontal loading while bringing his elbow above his shoulder level. Upon his return, he reduced the horizontal loading and would keep his elbow at or below his shoulder level. Whether this was a designed attempt to avoid further injury or simply the post-surgery aftermath limiting his range of motion is unknown. Based on that notion, I thought maybe – just maybe – Zumaya had made some improvements that would keep him on the field a bit longer in 2012. Of course, five days later he would take the mound to throw his first live session of the spring only to leave clutching his elbow. Mackey also captured video of Zumaya warming up for that session. Unfortunately, Zumaya, now clearly pushing closer to max effort which may have been the reason for the lowered loading point from the previous video, unleashed a fastball and the Inverted V arm action was prevalent once again: [ATTACH=CONFIG]203[/ATTACH]The camera angle does not provide a great view but you can see that at this loading point, Zumaya has his elbow well above his shoulder-line, almost to the peak of his head. Now, I am not suggesting that this specific injury occur just because he was throwing with this particular arm action. There are plenty of other factors that played in such as the fact that he was recovering from a past elbow surgery and the UCL could have been in a weakened state. Yet, the years of improper mechanics and rushing through his delivery likely took a toll on the UCL – stretching it out like rubber band – and waited for the right pitch to snap. To be sure, there are split viewpoints from mechanics experts on the effects of the inverted arm motion. Some, like Carlos Gomez – a former Hardball Times writer turned pro scout – and pitching instructor Paul Nyman, have encouraged this practice as they say it adds velocity or helps throw more effective breaking balls. So there may be plenty of people inside baseball who actually view this as a positive in a pitcher – which may or may not be the Twins perspective as well. In addition to Zumaya, the Twins also recently targeted Nationals closer Drew Storen. Understandably, Storen has been wildly successful in his first two seasons in Washington and will remain inexpensive for some time as he stays under club control. On the other hand, Storen’s delivers with the Inverted W arm motion which leaves his open to various injuries. If the Twins were to trade off Denard Span for the closer – as the rumors went last year anyways – they would be trading a valuable player, inexpensive in his own right, for a commodity that has a higher potential to tear up his elbow or shoulder than other pitchers. [ATTACH=CONFIG]206[/ATTACH] This raises the larger question of the influence of mechanics, player acquisition and development. In his book The Extra 2%, Jonah Keri delves into the inner workings of the Tampa Bay Rays organization and how the franchise turned itself from being the league’s laughingstock to a model for other teams. During the massive turnaround, the Rays implemented new practices throughout the business. One area that received a lot of attention was the health of their pitchers from top to bottom in their system. They challenged some of baseball’s well-accepted practices such as limiting rehabbing pitchers to throwing no more than 120 feet while long-tossing and diligently creating individualized pitch counts for developing arms. The results were no short of amazing. From late-2005 through mid-2009, only one pitcher at any level in the system, Jacob McGee, required Tommy John surgery. Part of the credit went to the minor league instructors who created and executed the plan but a significant amount of credit goes to the scouts and front office who found many of these pitchers through the draft or as a free agent signing. In attempting to achieve that extra 2%, Keri writes that the Rays have made some interesting personnel hires for their front office staff, including the likes of Josh Kalk whose expertise in the pitch f/x system has been utilized to potentially spot patterns that may lead to injuries. Given the fact that the Rays hired a guy for what was said to be a “professor’s salary” to track release points, it would be expected that the team probably has a person on staff to monitor mechanics and advises against players like Zumaya who exhibit the traits that could lead to injuries. Admittedly, at $400,000, the Twins had little to lose with their gamble on Zumaya’s recovery. At the same time, because the 2012 budget was extremely tight and the team was limited to just signing just Zumaya as their only right-handed set-up man, the gamble was amplified beyond the fiscal investment. Even without going back to his long list of injuries, the Inverted V provided an additional layer of discomfort when heading into a season relying on a guy for a critical bullpen role. Had the Twins organization been more vigilant of this, they may have opted to sign one of the other bullpen arms instead of Zumaya or, at the very least, one as an insurance policy. -
One of the questions posed on our new TwinsDaily.com message board was how will the Twins account for 200 runs in their runs scored/runs allowed differential over the 2011 season which would bring the club back towards 81 wins and beyond. On the defensive/pitching side of the ledger, Minnesota allowed 804 runs – the second-highest in the American League behind only Baltimore. At the plate, they managed to score just 619 – the second-fewest ahead of only Seattle. It is simple enough: In order to become a competitive team again, this year’s squad needs to shave off runs allowed and increase the runs scored. Yes, the 2011 Twins scored less frequently than your standard World of Warcraft participant but there are plenty of reasons why fans should anticipate a boost in runs scored in 2012. One such reason more offense by the Twins should be expected is because of the overhaul at the top of the order. From this chart below, you can see that based on a team’s ability to get their first two hitters in the order on base regularly, their scoring tendency increased: [TABLE=width: 192, align: center] [TD=colspan: 3]Lead-off & Two-hitter (2011)[/TD] Team On-Base Percentage Runs BOS 0.369 875 NYY 0.355 867 TEX 0.351 855 TBR 0.340 707 TOR 0.335 743 KCR 0.334 730 CWS 0.327 654 LAA 0.321 667 DET 0.320 787 CLE 0.317 704 BAL 0.317 708 OAK 0.316 645 MIN 0.304 619 SEA 0.295 556 [/TABLE] Of course, there are a lot of variables that go into a team’s ability to generate runs that extend just beyond the first two hitters. For example, while the Rays were able to set their table extremely well, the team’s bottom of the order, spots seven through nine, hit a paltry .216/.219/.330 throughout the season. This top heavy production likely cost Tampa some runs over the year. On the other hand, the Detroit Tigers had the opposite effect. Their top of the order, starting with Austin Jackson, had a difficult time getting on base. Instead of getting runners on from the top of the lineup, the middle of Detroit’s order – hitter’s three through six – mashed to the tune of .305/.369/.482. This led to 787 runs, the fourth-highest in the American League last year. With the exception of those outliers, a team’s offense and their performance at the top of the order is fairly intertwined. Obviously, a team like the Red Sox, Yankees and Rangers have consistent lineup from top to bottom while teams like the Orioles, A’s and Mariners had holes everywhere. A team bursting with hitting is likely going to score more runs. In many ways, the Twins were no different from those bottom-feeding clubs. Injuries diluted the lineup so much it became as potent as a watered-down liquor bottle in the cabinet of a high school kid’s parents’ house. Even with a thin lineup, the 2011 Twins top of the order lacked any means to jumpstart the offense. Denard Span started the season off well but the concussion greatly reduced his production before he was sidelined. His replacement, Ben Revere, was learning on the job and posted a .310 on-base percentage – a very lackluster rate for a leadoff man. In the two-spot, Alexi Casilla posted a .322 on-base percentage but he too was injured and the spot in the order was given most often to Trevor Plouffe, who had a .305 on-base percentage. So even with the dilapidated lineup in the season’s second-half the Twins did not provide the middle-of-the-order much of an opportunity to drive in runs. It is clear that if the team wants to compete in 2011, they need to score runs. With Joe Mauer claiming to be in excellent physical condition this spring and Josh Willingham entering into the picture, the heart of the order should be at the very least incrementally strong than it was a year ago. The trick is having a pair of hitters that can be on base for the big sticks to do their work. While he admits there have been some good days and bad days when it comes to his recovery, for now, there is optimism that Span is ready to go. An owner of a career .361 on-base percentage, when he has been healthy, he’s been one of the game’s best lead-off hitters. Even though he has had a down year in 2010, he appeared to be on the path to a rebound season in 2011: Prior to his collision with Royals catcher Brayan Pena, he was holding an OBP north of his current career rate. Following Span in the order will likely be new addition Jamey Carroll. Carroll is a prototypical number two hitter – able to get on base as well as move runners over by hitting behind them. Provided that he can play serviceable defense in the twilight of his career, he should be a solid contributor out of the two spot. With Span and Carroll as the lineup’s opening acts, the Twins should be climbing the on-base chart and, as such, should be scoring more runs and thereby closing that important 200-run differential chasm.
-
One of the questions posed on our new TwinsDaily.com message board was how will the Twins account for 200 runs in their runs scored/runs allowed differential over the 2011 season which would bring the club back towards 81 wins and beyond. On the defensive/pitching side of the ledger, Minnesota allowed 804 runs – the second-highest in the American League behind only Baltimore. At the plate, they managed to score just 619 – the second-fewest ahead of only Seattle. It is simple enough: In order to become a competitive team again, this year’s squad needs to shave off runs allowed and increase the runs scored. Yes, the 2011 Twins scored less frequently than your standard World of Warcraft participant but there are plenty of reasons why fans should anticipate a boost in runs scored in 2012. One such reason more offense by the Twins should be expected is because of the overhaul at the top of the order. From this chart below, you can see that based on a team’s ability to get their first two hitters in the order on base regularly, their scoring tendency increased: [TABLE=width: 192, align: center] [TD=colspan: 3]Lead-off & Two-hitter (2011)[/TD] Team On-Base Percentage Runs BOS 0.369 875 NYY 0.355 867 TEX 0.351 855 TBR 0.340 707 TOR 0.335 743 KCR 0.334 730 CWS 0.327 654 LAA 0.321 667 DET 0.320 787 CLE 0.317 704 BAL 0.317 708 OAK 0.316 645 MIN 0.304 619 SEA 0.295 556 [/TABLE] Of course, there are a lot of variables that go into a team’s ability to generate runs that extend just beyond the first two hitters. For example, while the Rays were able to set their table extremely well, the team’s bottom of the order, spots seven through nine, hit a paltry .216/.219/.330 throughout the season. This top heavy production likely cost Tampa some runs over the year. On the other hand, the Detroit Tigers had the opposite effect. Their top of the order, starting with Austin Jackson, had a difficult time getting on base. Instead of getting runners on from the top of the lineup, the middle of Detroit’s order – hitter’s three through six – mashed to the tune of .305/.369/.482. This led to 787 runs, the fourth-highest in the American League last year. With the exception of those outliers, a team’s offense and their performance at the top of the order is fairly intertwined. Obviously, a team like the Red Sox, Yankees and Rangers have consistent lineup from top to bottom while teams like the Orioles, A’s and Mariners had holes everywhere. A team bursting with hitting is likely going to score more runs. In many ways, the Twins were no different from those bottom-feeding clubs. Injuries diluted the lineup so much it became as potent as a watered-down liquor bottle in the cabinet of a high school kid’s parents’ house. Even with a thin lineup, the 2011 Twins top of the order lacked any means to jumpstart the offense. Denard Span started the season off well but the concussion greatly reduced his production before he was sidelined. His replacement, Ben Revere, was learning on the job and posted a .310 on-base percentage – a very lackluster rate for a leadoff man. In the two-spot, Alexi Casilla posted a .322 on-base percentage but he too was injured and the spot in the order was given most often to Trevor Plouffe, who had a .305 on-base percentage. So even with the dilapidated lineup in the season’s second-half the Twins did not provide the middle-of-the-order much of an opportunity to drive in runs. It is clear that if the team wants to compete in 2011, they need to score runs. With Joe Mauer claiming to be in excellent physical condition this spring and Josh Willingham entering into the picture, the heart of the order should be at the very least incrementally strong than it was a year ago. The trick is having a pair of hitters that can be on base for the big sticks to do their work. While he admits there have been some good days and bad days when it comes to his recovery, for now, there is optimism that Span is ready to go. An owner of a career .361 on-base percentage, when he has been healthy, he’s been one of the game’s best lead-off hitters. Even though he has had a down year in 2010, he appeared to be on the path to a rebound season in 2011: Prior to his collision with Royals catcher Brayan Pena, he was holding an OBP north of his current career rate. Following Span in the order will likely be new addition Jamey Carroll. Carroll is a prototypical number two hitter – able to get on base as well as move runners over by hitting behind them. Provided that he can play serviceable defense in the twilight of his career, he should be a solid contributor out of the two spot. With Span and Carroll as the lineup’s opening acts, the Twins should be climbing the on-base chart and, as such, should be scoring more runs and thereby closing that important 200-run differential chasm.
-
One of the questions posed on our new TwinsDaily.com message board was how the Twins will account for 200 runs in their runs scored/runs allowed differential over the 2011 season which would bring the club back towards 81 wins and beyond. On the defensive/pitching side of the ledger, Minnesota allowed 804 runs – the second-highest in the American League behind only Baltimore. At the plate, they managed to score just 619 – the second-fewest ahead of only Seattle. It is simple enough: In order to become a competitive team again, this year’s squad needs to shave off runs allowed and increase the runs scored. Yes, the 2011 Twins scored less frequently than your standard World of Warcraft participant but there are plenty of reasons why fans should anticipate a boost in runs scored in 2012. One such reason more offense by the Twins should be expected is because of the overhaul at the top of the order. From this chart below, you can see that based on a team’s ability to get their first two hitters in the order on base regularly, their scoring tendency increased: [TABLE=width: 192, align: center] [TD=colspan: 3]Lead-off & Two-hitter (2011) [/TD] Team On-Base Percentage Runs BOS 0.369 875 NYY 0.355 867 TEX 0.351 855 TBR 0.340 707 TOR 0.335 743 KCR 0.334 730 CWS 0.327 654 LAA 0.321 667 DET 0.320 787 CLE 0.317 704 BAL 0.317 708 OAK 0.316 645 MIN 0.304 619 SEA 0.295 556 [/TABLE] Of course, there are a lot of variables that go into a team’s ability to generate runs that extend just beyond the first two hitters. For example, while the Rays were able to set their table extremely well, the team’s bottom of the order, spots seven through nine, hit a paltry .216/.219/.330 throughout the season. This top heavy production likely cost Tampa some runs over the year. On the other hand, the Detroit Tigers had the opposite effect. Their top of the order, starting with Austin Jackson, had a difficult time getting on base. Instead of getting runners on from the top of the lineup, the middle of Detroit’s order – hitter’s three through six – mashed to the tune of .305/.369/.482. This led to 787 runs, the fourth-highest in the American League last year. With the exception of those outliers, a team’s offense and their performance at the top of the order is fairly intertwined. Obviously, a team like the Red Sox, Yankees and Rangers have a consistent lineup from top to bottom while teams like the Orioles, A’s and Mariners had holes everywhere. A team bursting with hitting is likely going to score more runs. In many ways, the Twins were no different from those bottom-feeding clubs. Injuries diluted the lineup so much it became as potent as a watered-down liquor bottle in the cabinet of a high school kid’s parents’ house. Even with a thin lineup, the 2011 Twins top of the order lacked any means to jumpstart the offense. Denard Span started the season off well but the concussion greatly reduced his production before he was sidelined. His replacement, Ben Revere, was learning on the job and posted a .310 on-base percentage – a very lackluster rate for a leadoff man. In the two-spot, Alexi Casilla posted a .322 on-base percentage but he too was injured and the spot in the order was given most often to Trevor Plouffe, who had a .305 on-base percentage. So even with the dilapidated lineup in the season’s second-half the Twins did not provide the middle-of-the-order much of an opportunity to drive in runs. It is clear that if the team wants to compete in 2011, they need to score runs. With Joe Mauer claiming to be in excellent physical condition this spring and Josh Willingham entering into the picture, the heart of the order should be at the very least incrementally strong than it was a year ago. The trick is having a pair of hitters that can be on base for the big sticks to do their work. While he admits there have been some good days and bad days when it comes to his recovery, for now, there is optimism that Span is ready to go. An owner of a career .361 on-base percentage, when he has been healthy, he’s been one of the game’s best lead-off hitters. Even though he has had a down year in 2010, he appeared to be on the path to a rebound season in 2011: Prior to his collision with Royals catcher Brayan Pena, he was holding an OBP north of his current career rate. Following Span in the order will likely be new addition Jamey Carroll. Carroll is a prototypical number two hitter – able to get on base as well as move runners over by hitting behind them. Provided that he can play serviceable defense in the twilight of his career, he should be a solid contributor out of the two spot. With Span and Carroll as the lineup’s opening acts, the Twins should be climbing the on-base chart and, as such, should be scoring more runs and thereby closing that important 200-run differential chasm.
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Twins to get Tsuyoshi Nishioka reps at third
Parker Hageman commented on Parker Hageman's blog entry in Over the Baggy
According to AP Guy, Jon Krawczynski, Twins GM Terry Ryan said that Tsuyoshi Nishioka could see some time at third base this spring.[ATTACH=CONFIG]181[/ATTACH]This might be the attempts to Punto-ize the middle infielder, giving him experience at all infield positions in efforts to bolster his resume as a potential utility candidate. While his range may play well at the hot corner as Punto’s did, Nishioka clearly lacks the same arm strength to adequately perform at that position. Consider this: In the past three seasons, the Fans Scouting Report has given Punto a 56 on his Arm Strength. In his first year at the major league level, fans deemed Nishioka’s arm to be worth 16 – one of the worst in the game. There probably is not much of a reason to read any more into this than the Twins attempts of adding versatility in the spring, but even so, I have a hard time seeing Nishioka adapting to that position. -
Twinsdaily.com -- Early Review
Parker Hageman commented on Twins Fan From Afar's blog entry in Blog Twins Fan From Afar
Thanks for the glowing review! -
Wall Street Journal Reports Twins Had 6th Best Off-Season
Parker Hageman commented on Loosey's blog entry in Blog Loosey
Thanks for sharing Loosey. In all, I agree that the Twins offseason should be viewed as a positive one. -
The 2011 season was quite a mess for Francisco Liriano. Coming off the solid 2010 season, expectations had been high for the lefty and instead of moving forward he regressed heavily, turning in one of the worst seasons among qualified starters. Command-wise, his 12.7% walk rate was the highest among pitchers with a minimum of 130 innings pitched. According to a recent John Shipley article at the PiPress, Twins pitching coach Rick Anderson offered up a cure for what he believes ails Liriano: [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] This is an interesting assessment because this is not the first time that getting Liriano to pitch more “downhill” as been brought up. Following his eight-inning, nine strikeout performance against the Texas Rangers on June 12 of last year, the MLB Network crew took the opportunity to dissect the difference between the early season Liriano – the one who had gone 2-5 with a 7.07 ERA with a 21/27 K/BB ratio in 35.2 innings combined in his first seven starts – to the one who had just obliterated the future AL Champions. What MLB analyst Mitch Williams noted was that Liriano had a tendency of not “staying behind his head”. The former closer described this as rushing throw his delivery and that he would peel off towards the third base line with his momentum – just like Anderson said. This, noted Williams, resulted in a decrease in control. Williams and his on-screen partner Dan Plesac also highlighted a key difference between his June 12 domination and a clip from a 2010 start against Baltimore: Liriano’s arm angle. Here you see the screenshot and notice the tilt variation between the still on the left (from 2010) to the one on the right (2011). Williams said that Liriano’s 2011 angle was “much better” than his 2010 one and that gave him the ability to pitch “downhill.” Fangraphs.com’s Pitch F/X charts confirm that his arm was much more vertical on that day versus that of his 2010 outing against the Orioles: Release point vs Rangers 2011 Release point vs Orioles 2010 As we know by now, Liriano’s outing against Texas was not the pivotal turnaround moment that most hoped for (or that MLB Network predicted). Instead, he sputtered throughout the remainder of the season and walked 12% of batters faced. At some point during the early portion of the season, according to a source with the team, the Twins used visual aids supplied by the team’s videographer to show the left-hander how chaotic and random his release points had been at the season’s onset. Supposedly, they were working on getting Liriano to raise his release point. As Anderson mentioned to reporters, he feels that if Liriano stays “tall”, he will be able to create a better downward plane. Many people interpreted the Twins staff’s tinkering with Liriano in 2011 as a way to convert the strikeout pitcher into a finesse-type who pitches to contact. To which Anderson denies: Without question, Liriano has some inconsistent mechanics - he pulls off towards third, he short arms at times, his rushes through his delivery, he throws from various slots, etc – and you can understand why Rick Anderson is trying to iron him out. Anderson claims that the higher release point will get him to throw “downhill” more. Mitch Williams echoed that sentiment by saying the downward plane leads to a “fastball that explodes in the last four-to-five feet” and gets more drop on the slider. However, and with no disrespect to Mr. Anderson or Mr. Williams, but thus far the higher release point has seemingly done squat for Liriano. I understand that Rick Anderson has done wonders with plenty of pitchers but it is possible that what he describes as “his way” may not be the optimum position for Liriano. In 2010, according to pitch f/x charts Liriano’s release point appeared to be somewhere between 10 and 11 o’clock (a bit lower) while this past season he moved it up closer to 12 (a bit higher). In 2010, his fastball command was far superior and his slider showed more bite. This past season his exercised some of the worst command of a fastball among all qualified starters. Based on that alone, one may consider reverting back to the 2010 mechanics if, for nothing else, to rekindle that flame. In April of last season, I took a quick look at the difference between the 2010 and 2011 Liriano deliveries and found that in 2011 he was remaining tall (much like the Twins are encouraging him to do) but his follow-through lacked the same downward action that he showed in 2010. According to pitch f/x charts, it appeared that staying tall seemed to elevate his fastball. At that time, I figured the staff would try to get him to emulate his 2010 mechanics but it sounds like I was wrong. It is curious to me that instead of attempting to re-create the environment that propelled Liriano towards his second best season of his career, Anderson has been trying to mold him into pitching “his way” and throwing it “straight up” - a manner in which Liriano has struggled.
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Gabbin' Grapefruit: Francisco Liriano's Delivery
Parker Hageman posted a blog entry in Over the Baggy
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Gabbin' Grapefruit: Francisco Liriano's Delivery
Parker Hageman commented on Parker Hageman's blog entry in Over the Baggy
The 2011 season was quite a mess for Francisco Liriano. Coming off the solid 2010 season, expectations had been high for the lefty and instead of moving forward he regressed heavily, turning in one of the worst seasons among qualified starters. Command-wise, his 12.7% walk rate was the highest among pitchers with a minimum of 130 innings pitched. According to a recent John Shipley article at the PiPress, Twins pitching coach Rick Anderson offered up a cure for what he believes ails Liriano: This is an interesting assessment because this is not the first time that getting Liriano to pitch more “downhill” as been brought up. Following his eight-inning, nine strikeout performance against the Texas Rangers on June 12 of last year, the MLB Network crew took the opportunity to dissect the difference between the early season Liriano – the one who had gone 2-5 with a 7.07 ERA with a 21/27 K/BB ratio in 35.2 innings combined in his first seven starts – to the one who had just obliterated the future AL Champions. What MLB analyst Mitch Williams noted was that Liriano had a tendency of not “staying behind his head”. The former closer described this as rushing throw his delivery and that he would peel off towards the third base line with his momentum – just like Anderson said. This, noted Williams, resulted in a decrease in control. Williams and his on-screen partner Dan Plesac also highlighted a key difference between his June 12 domination and a clip from a 2010 start against Baltimore: Liriano’s arm angle. Here you see the screenshot and notice the tilt variation between the still on the left (from 2010) to the one on the right (2011). [ATTACH=CONFIG]164[/ATTACH] Williams said that Liriano’s 2011 angle was “much better” than his 2010 one and that gave him the ability to pitch “downhill.” Fangraphs.com’s Pitch F/X charts confirm that his arm was much more vertical on that day versus that of his 2010 outing against the Orioles: [ATTACH=CONFIG]165[/ATTACH] Release point vs Rangers 2011 [ATTACH=CONFIG]166[/ATTACH]Release point vs Orioles 2010 As we know by now, Liriano’s outing against Texas was not the pivotal turnaround moment that most hoped for (or that MLB Network predicted). Instead, he sputtered throughout the remainder of the season and walked 12% of batters faced. At some point during the early portion of the season, according to a source with the team, the Twins used visual aids supplied by the team’s videographer to show the left-hander how chaotic and random his release points had been at the season’s onset. Supposedly, they were working on getting Liriano to raise his release point. As Anderson mentioned to reporters, he feels that if Liriano stays “tall”, he will be able to create a better downward plane. Many people interpreted the Twins staff’s tinkering with Liriano in 2011 as a way to convert the strikeout pitcher into a finesse-type who pitches to contact. To which Anderson denies: Without question, Liriano has some inconsistent mechanics - he pulls off towards third, he short arms at times, his rushes through his delivery, he throws from various slots, etc – and you can understand why Rick Anderson is trying to iron him out. Anderson claims that the higher release point will get him to throw “downhill” more. Mitch Williams echoed that sentiment by saying the downward plane leads to a “fastball that explodes in the last four-to-five feet” and gets more drop on the slider. However, and with no disrespect to Mr. Anderson or Mr. Williams, but thus far the higher release point has seemingly done squat for Liriano. I understand that Rick Anderson has done wonders with plenty of pitchers but it is possible that what he describes as “his way” may not be the optimum position for Liriano. In 2010, according to pitch f/x charts Liriano’s release point appeared to be somewhere between 10 and 11 o’clock (a bit lower) while this past season he moved it up closer to 12 (a bit higher). In 2010, his fastball command was far superior and his slider showed more bite. This past season his exercised some of the worst command of a fastball among all qualified starters. Based on that alone, one may consider reverting back to the 2010 mechanics if, for nothing else, to rekindle that flame. In April of last season, I took a quick look at the difference between the 2010 and 2011 Liriano deliveries and found that in 2011 he was remaining tall (much like the Twins are encouraging him to do) but his follow-through lacked the same downward action that he showed in 2010. According to pitch f/x charts, it appeared that staying tall seemed to elevate his fastball. At that time, I figured the staff would try to get him to emulate his 2010 mechanics but it sounds like I was wrong. It is curious to me that instead of attempting to re-create the environment that propelled Liriano towards his second best season of his career, Anderson has been trying to mold him into pitching “his way” and throwing it “straight up” - a manner in which Liriano has struggled. -
La Velle had a good piece on Rule 5 pick Terry Doyle at the Strib today. The 26-year-old right-hander discussed some his route to the Twins organization, listening in on Internet radio at his home in Warwick, Rhode Island when he found out that Minnesota had drafted him. For their part, the Twins were impressed with Doyle’s performance in the Arizona Fall League in which he went while in the Chicago system and, as Neal writes, “Doyle he was dominant at times while going 4-0 with a 1.98 ERA in eight starts for the Mesa Solar Sox.” With their scouts on hand, Twins GM Terry Ryan told Neal that they were impressed by Doyle’s repertoire: [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]Reaffirming the Twins scouting department’s belief in Doyle is Baseball America’s JJ Cooper assessment. Heading into the Rule 5 draft, Cooper wrote: Not to diminish the accolades of being anointed one of the league’s Rising Stars or what is perceived as solid stuff by Baseball America, Doyle’s small sample size dominance in the desert leaves some wondering if that was more enigmatic than breakthrough. After all, his batting average on balls in play was ridiculously low (.127) even for a workload of just under 30 innings. In a recent chat, ESPN.com’s prospect guru fielded a question regarding Doyle’s chances of being an impact player to which Law responded “[f]ringe guy. Don't see a big league role for him.” Again, Doyle appears to be a smart pitcher – as alluded to by both Ryan and Cooper – and majored in math at Boston College. During an interview with Fangraphs.com’s irreplaceable David Laurila, Laurila asked the math major what, if any, can Doyle as a pitcher derive from applied statistics. To which, the pitchers said: Reading that interview, you understand why Doyle is what has become the archetypical Twins pitcher – he throws strikes and he lets his defense do the work. What’s more is that he understands his limitations. He doesn’t have a devastating fastball but incorporates a cutter to provide a variety of movement. As Cooper said, he will use his secondary stuff early in the count to keep opponents off-balanced. Perhaps most important, he pounds the strike zone with all four offerings. This method has led to high ground ball rates and low walk-rates. Doyle’s road to Minnesota may be filled with plenty of hurdles this spring but, if he gets there, you can certainly envision him thriving in the organization’s pitching system.
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La Valle had a good piece on Rule 5 pick Terry Doyle at the Strib today. The 26-year-old right-hander discussed some his route to the Twins organization, listening in on Internet radio at his home in Warwick, Rhode Island when he found out that Minnesota had drafted him. For their part, the Twins were impressed with Doyle’s performance in the Arizona Fall League in which he went while in the Chicago system and, as Neal writes, “Doyle he was dominant at times while going 4-0 with a 1.98 ERA in eight starts for the Mesa Solar Sox.” With their scouts on hand, Twins GM Terry Ryan told Neal that they were impressed by Doyle’s repertoire: Reaffirming the Twins scouting department’s belief in Doyle is Baseball America’s JJ Cooper assessment. Heading into the Rule 5 draft, Cooper wrote: Not to diminish the accolades of being anointed one of the league’s Rising Stars or what is perceived as solid stuff by Baseball America, Doyle’s small sample size dominance in the desert leaves some wondering if that was more enigmatic than breakthrough. After all, his batting average on balls in play was ridiculously low (.127) even for a workload of just under 30 innings. In a recent chat, ESPN.com’s prospect guru fielded a question regarding Doyle’s chances of being an impact player to which Law responded “[f]ringe guy. Don't see a big league role for him.” Again, Doyle appears to be a smart pitcher – as alluded to by both Ryan and Cooper – and majored in math at Boston College. During an interview with Fangraphs.com’s irreplaceable David Laurila, Laurila asked the math major what, if any, can Doyle as a pitcher derive from applied statistics. To which, the pitchers said: Reading that interview, you understand why Doyle is what has become the archetypical Twins pitcher – he throws strikes and he lets his defense do the work. What’s more is that he understands his limitations. He doesn’t have a devastating fastball but incorporates a cutter to provide a variety of movement. As Cooper said, he will use his secondary stuff early in the count to keep opponents off-balanced. Perhaps most important, he pounds the strike zone with all four offerings. This method has led to high ground ball rates and low walk-rates. Doyle’s road to Minnesota may be filled with plenty of hurdles this spring but, if he gets there, you can certainly envision him thriving in the organization’s pitching system.
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Gabbin' Grapefruit: Terry Doyle
Parker Hageman commented on Parker Hageman's blog entry in Over the Baggy
La Valle had a good piece on Rule 5 pick Terry Doyle at the Strib today. The 26-year-old right-hander discussed some his route to the Twins organization, listening in on Internet radio at his home in Warwick, Rhode Island when he found out that Minnesota had drafted him. For their part, the Twins were impressed with Doyle’s performance in the Arizona Fall League in which he went while in the Chicago system and, as Neal writes, “Doyle he was dominant at times while going 4-0 with a 1.98 ERA in eight starts for the Mesa Solar Sox.” With their scouts on hand, Twins GM Terry Ryan told Neal that they were impressed by Doyle’s repertoire: Reaffirming the Twins scouting department’s belief in Doyle is Baseball America’s JJ Cooper assessment. Heading into the Rule 5 draft, Cooper wrote: Not to diminish the accolades of being anointed one of the league’s Rising Stars or what is perceived as solid stuff by Baseball America, Doyle’s small sample size dominance in the desert leaves some wondering if that was more enigmatic than breakthrough. After all, his batting average on balls in play was ridiculously low (.127) even for a workload of just under 30 innings. In a recent chat, ESPN.com’s prospect guru fielded a question regarding Doyle’s chances of being an impact player to which Law responded “[f]ringe guy. Don't see a big league role for him.” Again, Doyle appears to be a smart pitcher – as alluded to by both Ryan and Cooper – and majored in math at Boston College. During an interview with Fangraphs.com’s irreplaceable David Laurila, Laurila asked the math major what, if any, can Doyle as a pitcher derive from applied statistics. To which, the pitchers said: Reading that interview, you understand why Doyle is what has become the archetypical Twins pitcher – he throws strikes and he lets his defense do the work. What’s more is that he understands his limitations. He doesn’t have a devastating fastball but incorporates a cutter to provide a variety of movement. As Cooper said, he will use his secondary stuff early in the count to keep opponents off-balanced. Perhaps most important, he pounds the strike zone with all four offerings. This method has led to high ground ball rates and low walk-rates. Doyle’s road to Minnesota may be filled with plenty of hurdles this spring but, if he gets there, you can certainly envision him thriving in the organization’s pitching system. -
La Valle had a good piece on Rule 5 pick Terry Doyle at the Strib today. The 26-year-old right-hander discussed some his route to the Twins organization, listening in on Internet radio at his home in Warwick, Rhode Island when he found out that Minnesota had drafted him. For their part, the Twins were impressed with Doyle’s performance in the Arizona Fall League in which he went while in the Chicago system and, as Neal writes, “Doyle he was dominant at times while going 4-0 with a 1.98 ERA in eight starts for the Mesa Solar Sox.” With their scouts on hand, Twins GM Terry Ryan told Neal that they were impressed by Doyle’s repertoire: Reaffirming the Twins scouting department’s belief in Doyle is Baseball America’s JJ Cooper assessment. Heading into the Rule 5 draft, Cooper wrote: Not to diminish the accolades of being anointed one of the league’s Rising Stars or what is perceived as solid stuff by Baseball America, Doyle’s small sample size dominance in the desert leaves some wondering if that was more enigmatic than breakthrough. After all, his batting average on balls in play was ridiculously low (.127) even for a workload of just under 30 innings. In a recent chat, ESPN.com’s prospect guru fielded a question regarding Doyle’s chances of being an impact player to which Law responded “[f]ringe guy. Don't see a big league role for him.” Again, Doyle appears to be a smart pitcher – as alluded to by both Ryan and Cooper – and majored in math at Boston College. During an interview with Fangraphs.com’s irreplaceable David Laurila, Laurila asked the math major what, if any, can Doyle as a pitcher derive from applied statistics. To which, the pitchers said: Reading that interview, you understand why Doyle is what has become the archetypical Twins pitcher – he throws strikes and he lets his defense do the work. What’s more is that he understands his limitations. He doesn’t have a devastating fastball but incorporates a cutter to provide a variety of movement. As Cooper said, he will use his secondary stuff early in the count to keep opponents off-balanced. Perhaps most important, he pounds the strike zone with all four offerings. This method has led to high ground ball rates and low walk-rates. Doyle’s road to Minnesota may be filled with plenty of hurdles this spring but, if he gets there, you can certainly envision him thriving in the organization’s pitching system.
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Poll: Being A Fan Of Which Team Would Be A Deal-Breaker For You?
Parker Hageman commented on Andrew Bryz-Gornia's blog entry in Off The Mark
Without having seen Megan's video, I'm guessing she's a Tampa-resident that has been entrenched as Yankee territory since at least the mid-70s. Many of the residents in Tampa have thrown their allegiance to the Yankees particularly since they were the only game in town for a long while. Still...yucky. -
Will Francisco Liriano rebound in 2012?
Parker Hageman commented on Parker Hageman's blog entry in Over the Baggy
Without a doubt, there will be plenty of storylines to monitor during spring training this year. One of the bigger ones that you should keep an eye on in Fort Myers is Francisco Liriano’s fastball. Injuries took him out of the 2011 season but it was clear that the southpaw was not the same pitcher as he was the season before. Between a decrease in velocity, an inability to locate his fastball and regularly falling behind his opponents, Liriano posted a career high in walks (75) and his second-worst ERA of his career (5.09). Perhaps a bit predictably based upon his delivery and past history, he succumbed to injuries midway through last season and missed a significant amount of time. Suddenly, not signing Liriano to a long-term deal became one of Bill Smith’s finest moves as a GM. For his part, Liriano, who was admonished for not following through with offseason workouts before last season, opted to participate in winter ball – the same platform that helped him regain his form two seasons ago. Unfortunately, the results were not quite as enticing this year as they were in the past. He threw 24.2 innings and posted a 25/16 K/BB ratio in winter ball. This outcome was a distant cry from his 2009 winter league performance in which he reintroduced himself to baseball as one of the more filthy pitchers in baseball. That year in 20 innings Liriano posted a 30/5 K/BB ratio on his way to becoming one of the Twins more dominating starters in the 2010 regular season. Admittedly, each pitch thrown between November and April means very little in the grand scheme yet the signs are not wholly positive at this juncture. What can Liriano do to become the pitcher the Twins so desperately need in 2012? There’s no question that he still has the nasty slider that can catapult him towards being a Cy Young-caliber pitcher, however, as I detailed following Liriano’s first outing this offseason in the Dominican, the main question is whether he can command his fastball. According to BrooksBaseball.net’s pitch f/x data, Liriano’s fastball was vastly different from the 2010 predecessor: [TABLE] [TD=colspan: 4, align: center]Liriano’s Fastballs (2010 vs 2011)[/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center]MPH[/TD] [TD=align: center]Called Strike[/TD] [TD=align: center]Whiff[/TD] [TD=align: center]2010 Four-Seamer[/TD] [TD=align: center]94.6[/TD] [TD=align: center]17.6%[/TD] [TD=align: center]15.1%[/TD] [TD=align: center]2010 Two-Seamer[/TD] [TD=align: center]94.3[/TD] [TD=align: center]21.2%[/TD] [TD=align: center]13.1%[/TD] [TD=align: center]2011 Four-Seamer[/TD] [TD=align: center]92.4[/TD] [TD=align: center]17.2%[/TD] [TD=align: center]10.8%[/TD] [TD=align: center]2011 Two-Seamer[/TD] [TD=align: center]92.5[/TD] [TD=align: center]14.7%[/TD] [TD=align: center]12.3%[/TD] [/TABLE] In addition to the decrease in velocity, notice the sharp decline in the amount of called strikes with his two-seamed fastball. This is the pitch he uses most often against right-handed opponents. This may explain why his walk rate when facing righties jumped from 8.5% in 2010 to 12.8% in 2011. Having scouted a couple of Liriano’s outings in the Dominican, you can see that he was still struggling to place the pitch in the Caribbean – specifically his two-seamed fastball against right-handers. Outside of Scott Baker, the Twins have little in their rotation of being an elite pitcher. In order to reach that echelon which the team so desperately needs, Liriano, besides being healthy, needs to see an improved fastball in 2012. -
Without a doubt, there will be plenty of storylines to monitor during spring training this year. One of the bigger ones that you should keep an eye on in Fort Myers is Francisco Liriano’s fastball. Injuries took him out of the 2011 season but it was clear that the southpaw was not the same pitcher as he was the season before. Between a decrease in velocity, an inability to locate his fastball and regularly falling behind his opponents, Liriano posted a career high in walks (75) and his second-worst ERA of his career (5.09). Perhaps a bit predictably based upon his delivery and past history, he succumbed to injuries midway through last season and missed a significant amount of time. Suddenly, not signing Liriano to a long-term deal became one of Bill Smith’s finest moves as a GM. For his part, Liriano, who was admonished for not following through with offseason workouts before last season, opted to participate in winter ball – the same platform that helped him regain his form two seasons ago. Unfortunately, the results were not quite as enticing this year as they were in the past. He threw 24.2 innings and posted a 25/16 K/BB ratio in winter ball. This outcome was a distant cry from his 2009 winter league performance in which he reintroduced himself to baseball as one of the more filthy pitchers in baseball. That year in 20 innings Liriano posted a 30/5 K/BB ratio on his way to becoming one of the Twins more dominating starters in the 2010 regular season. Admittedly, each pitch thrown between November and April means very little in the grand scheme yet the signs are not wholly positive at this juncture. What can Liriano do to become the pitcher the Twins so desperately need in 2012? There’s no question that he still has the nasty slider that can catapult him towards being a Cy Young-caliber pitcher, however, as I detailed following Liriano’s first outing this offseason in the Dominican, the main question is whether he can command his fastball. According to BrooksBaseball.net’s pitch f/x data, Liriano’s fastball was vastly different from the 2010 predecessor: [TABLE] [TD=colspan: 4, align: center]Liriano’s Fastballs (2010 vs 2011)[/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center]MPH[/TD] [TD=align: center]Called Strike[/TD] [TD=align: center]Whiff[/TD] [TD=align: center]2010 Four-Seamer[/TD] [TD=align: center]94.6[/TD] [TD=align: center]17.6%[/TD] [TD=align: center]15.1%[/TD] [TD=align: center]2010 Two-Seamer[/TD] [TD=align: center]94.3[/TD] [TD=align: center]21.2%[/TD] [TD=align: center]13.1%[/TD] [TD=align: center]2011 Four-Seamer[/TD] [TD=align: center]92.4[/TD] [TD=align: center]17.2%[/TD] [TD=align: center]10.8%[/TD] [TD=align: center]2011 Two-Seamer[/TD] [TD=align: center]92.5[/TD] [TD=align: center]14.7%[/TD] [TD=align: center]12.3%[/TD] [/TABLE] In addition to the decrease in velocity, notice the sharp decline in the amount of called strikes with his two-seamed fastball. This is the pitch he uses most often against right-handed opponents. This may explain why his walk rate when facing righties jumped from 8.5% in 2010 to 12.8% in 2011. Having scouted a couple of Liriano’s outings in the Dominican, you can see that he was still struggling to place the pitch in the Caribbean – specifically his two-seamed fastball against right-handers. Outside of Scott Baker, the Twins have little in their rotation of being an elite pitcher. In order to reach that echelon which the team so desperately needs, Liriano, besides being healthy, needs to see an improved fastball in 2012.

