Parker Hageman

If you had not noticed, Rochester Red Wings hitting coach Tom Brunansky has been a Mr. Fix-It when it comes to the system’s hitters. He has worked well with the young players in the organization, helping get the most out of middling prospects as well as putting the finishing touches on fast-risers in the system. Brian Dozier, Darin Mastroianni and Ben Revere, among others, are all members of the Twins who have credited Brunansky with tinkering with their swings to favorable results over the past two years. When Dozier encountered Brunansky for the first time in New Britain, the former Twin helped the current Twins shortstop add a bit more power to his stroke. Thanks in part to Brunansky’s tutelage the middle infielder went from a high ground-ball hitter to one who hit a high percentage of line drives and more fly balls. This led to a few more extra base hits, including a career-high 22 doubles in 351 plate appearances with the Rock Cats, and put him on Ron Gardenhire’s radar. LaVelle Neal reported that Brunansky had approached Mastroianni about changing his swing in spring training. The speedy outfielder tried it out at that time but it did not take. Sent to New Britain out of the chute, when Mastroianni was promoted to Rochester he worked with Brunansky on incorporating the previous changes into his swing. Mastroianni’s production went off the charts in the International League as in 84 plate appearances the 27-year-old hit .346/.393/.423 and was called to Minnesota. Most notably was the change in the trajectory of his batted balls. Previously a hitter whose ground ball rate was upper 40%/lower 50%, Mastroianni was able to generate more lift and posted a ground ball rate below 40% for the first time in his career. Meanwhile, in Revere’s case, Brunansky attempted to reduce his hand movement. As Brunansky told Sloane Martin of the Rochester Baseball Observer: After performing well with the Twins’ AAA affiliate, Revere was recalled in mid-May. Since his return to Minnesota, he has gone 22-for-70 (.314) with a very impressive .429 slugging percentage thanks, in part, to being able to drive the ball a bit further – perhaps a direct result of him reducing his hand movement. Interestingly enough, Revere recently told the Star Tribune’s Sid Hartman that his success as of last was due to a video revelation which involved another aspect of his hands: So Revere’s success could be attributed to Brunansky, Revere’s own findings or maybe a little bit of both. Another one of Brunansky’s scholars, Chris Parmelee, will have the opportunity to show that, like Revere, the Red Wings hitting coach’s methods can reap dividends at the major league level. Following a month-and-a-half of offensive ineptitude with the Twins, Parmelee was returned to Brunansky with a simple task: Fix it. Opponents attacked Parmelee’s weak spots, exploiting a long swing by blowing him apart with fastballs on the outer-half of the plate and getting him to chase curveballs out of the zone. Having worked with Parmelee in 2011 while the hitting coach for New Britain, upon arrival to Rochester, Brunansky appeared confident that he could correct what was ailing Parmelee. According to Martin: Placed back under Brunansky’s guidance, Parmelee raked with Rochester. In 58 plate appearances, he hit .370/.500/.717 with four doubles and four home runs. What’s more is that after showing poor zone judgment with the Twins at the beginning of the year, Parmelee coaxed 12 walks (21% walk rate), a positive sign that not only is he stinging the ball well but also has the wherewithal to lay off those off the plate. As mentioned above, Parmelee’s swing elongated with the Twins this year. During one broadcast FSN analyst and former Twin Roy Smalley pointed out that Parmelee’s tendency to open up quickly caused his bat speed to drag thus giving him fits when being pitched away. Clearly, this needed some attention. One adjustment that we can see Parmelee and Brunansky feature was a reduction in Parmelee’s open stance. By bringing his front leg closer to the plate, Parmelee’s first movement towards the plate with his weight does not have to be as significant as it once was and, in theory, he will not have to open up his hips as quickly to attempt to “catch up” during his swing – the part of his swing which Smalley pointed out was actually slowing his bat down. In short, the new stance should improve his coverage by keeping him from needing to commit early. [ATTACH=CONFIG]1168[/ATTACH] [ATTACH=CONFIG]1169[/ATTACH] It is hard to argue against Parmelee’s results but if there is one thing to be cautious over it is that his line drive rate evaporated while in Rochester. At the major league level, Parmelee had a line drive rate close to 20% but he exchanged those ropes for flies in Rochester, lining only 13% of his total balls put into play. It seems that fly balls have an easier time sneaking out of single-tiered stadiums over ones like Target Field. Admittedly, for every Brunansky success story like Dozier, Revere and potentially Parmelee, there are guys like Joe Benson, Rene Tosoni and Danny Valencia who seem to head in the opposite direction which reminds us of the baseball truism is that you will have many more misses than you do hits.

Good stuff but, unfortunately, the reason that his release points against the Angels were consistent is because he faced nothing but right-handed hitters at that time.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]1149[/ATTACH]On May 13, not long after sending down incumbent third baseman Danny Valencia to AAA, the Twins GM Terry Ryan called out the option-less Plouffe to step up his game: “I’d like to think we’re going to give Plouffe an opportunity here to step up and see what we’ve got. Eventually, we’re going to have to find out.” Heading into the May 16 contest in Detroit, he was staring down a .133/.288/.217 batting line in 73 plate appearances. The lack of production had incited plenty of conversation regarding whether or not he deserved to be on the roster at this juncture at all. Perhaps it was recognizing he was down to his proverbial last strike with the organization or that with Danny Valencia and Chris Parmelee sent to Rochester he would receive regular playing time or because he finally cut his damn hippy hair which was hindering his abilities to hit. Whatever the reason, Plouffe suddenly emerged as a serious power threat. From May 16 onward, Plouffe has hit six home runs, two doubles and has driven in nine runs in 13 games. Part of what has lead to the power outburst is that he is turning on pitches far better post-May 16 than he had been doing previously. According to BaseballHeatMaps.com, Plouffe’s pre-May 16 fly balls were traveling an average of 272 feet. Post-May 16, he was driving the ball much further on average, hitting them 295 feet. While the numerals might not do the significance justice, the visual spray charts found at TexasLeaguers.com shows what the discrepancy of over a 20-foot average looks like: [ATTACH=CONFIG]1147[/ATTACH][ATTACH=CONFIG]1148[/ATTACH] You can see the difference in that not only is Plouffe losing a few more balls over the fence, he is also driving the ball better to the left-center field gap. Prior to this stretch the majority of the time Plouffe turned on a pitch, he would do so and give the defense the opportunity to make a play on the ball. The increase in home runs – as welcomed as they are – still does not cover up the fact that the rest of his overall numbers leaves much to be desired. After all, Plouffe has a sub-.300 on-base percentage even during his recent hot streak. What’s interesting about his numbers is that during the early portion of the season (pre-May 16), Plouffe had walked 13 times in 73 plate appearances in spite of hitting .133. Since then, he has drawn just one walk in 51 plate appearances. Even with the precipitous decline, his walk rate remains above average and the highest of his career to date. Given that he has a 10 percent walk rate one would expect a beefier OBP but that is not the case. What is actually driving the fact that he is hitting below Aaron Gleeman’s weight (which is the modern day Mendoza line) and getting on base less than a 30 percent clip is that his batting average on balls in play – or BABIP - is atrociously bad. In fact, among those with a minimum of 100 plate appearances this year, Plouffe’s .192 BABIP is the fourth-lowest in baseball. Somewhere between 2010 and 2011, the Twins got Plouffe to make several adjustments to his set-up and swing. The new model led to more lift and elevation of pitches which begat a noticeable increase in his power numbers. The problem with fly balls is that if they don’t leave the park, they have a difficult time becoming hits. What’s more is that his fly ball rate has grown significant from last year (now at 47%, up from 40% in 2011) at the expense of his line drive rate. Although this is a good precursor for a home run, hitting a high percentage of fly balls that don’t land on the other side of the fence often are converted to outs. In Plouffe’s case, an even higher than normal amount of flies are being turned into outs, so there is an element of “bad luck” involved. The average fly ball hit has found vacant real estate roughly 13% of the time (by far the lowest among the three types of batted balls) but the flies off of Plouffe’s bat have landed safely just 5% of the time. Likewise, Plouffe’s grounders (39% of his batted balls) have found seams in the defense just 15% of the time, well below the MLB average of 24%. As the season progresses, Plouffe’s figures are likely going to move towards the mean as more fly balls and grounders find free space. Of course, ultimately, unless he raises his line drive rate above the paltry 14.3 percent (only eight other players have lower line drive rates this year), his numbers will not climb all that quickly. Turning on pitches with more authority and greater distance has led to some much needed offense, positive signs for the Twins’ super-utility player. His added plate discipline has given him another dimension as well and may be an indication of progress at the plate. At the same time, we have witnessed Plouffe on a power binge last season that eventually fizzled out later in the year so it is entirely possible that this outburst subsides too.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]1135[/ATTACH]Pitching, it has been said, is a war of attrition. The acronym, TINSTAPP, was invented and has been thrown around a lot in reference to this phenomenon. It means, “There Is No Such Thing as a Pitching Prospect”. Think your club has just landed the next big arm in the draft? Nope, there goes his elbow. Or shoulder. Look no further than the Twins organization and pitcher’s draft in recent years. Alex Wimmers (2010, 21st overall), Kyle Gibson (2009, 22nd overall) and Matt Bashore (2009, 46th overall) have all had their routes to the majors delayed by one injury or another. In the case of Bashore, his constant medical attention got him released from the Twins. While Gibson and Wimmers could have healthy careers ahead of them, the misses in the past few years have left the farm system lacking top tiered talent ready to feed the majors. Surely after selecting five-tooled high school athlete Byron Buxton with the number two overall pick, the Twins’ War Room shifted its focus to re-arming the system. At the end of the first round, the Twins nabbed right-handers Jose Orlando Berrios (Papa Juan XXIII H.S., PR) and Luke Bard (Georgia Tech), two pitchers whom they said they had on their board ranked between 25 and 50. If you believe the collective wisdom gathered at Baseball America, you will find that the Twins placed higher value on both pitchers than the minds and sources at Baseball America did. According to Baseball America’s pre-draft rankings, Berrios came in at 49th overall (the Twins grabbed him at 32) while Bard was ranked 93rd overall (Twins selected him at 42). Of course, this does not necessarily mean they reached too far. If the Twins were targeting right-handed pitchers, not many remained on the board when their time was on the clock. At the same time, you could argue that, given the state of the entire system, the team should have gone with the best available player regardless of position. Nevertheless, pitching is one of the more significant needs and integral part of the team’s success. Minnesota’s VP of Player Personnel, Mike Radcliff, told FSN viewers that the attention in Day Two would revolve around uncovering more pitching. “Pitching is obviously a need in our organization; we believe it’s a need in every organization,” Radcliff told FSN studio hosts Anthony LaPanta and Roy Smalley. Starting at noon on Tuesday, the Twins will be on the clock with the third pick in the second round (#63 overall) and if the neither the Astros or the A’s are so inclined, Minnesota could wind up drafting one of its own: Mitch Brown (Baseball America’s 44th overall), a right-handed pitcher out of Rochester Century. Following that, the Twins have selections at 72 and 97, which could mean if they stick to addressing the pitching needs, they could wind up with one or two more of 25 remaining pitching prospects rated in the Top 100 by Baseball America. Needless to say, Tuesday will be a busy day as the organization attempts to combat attrition among the pitching ranks.

"That's an awesome picture Parker. It explains a lot about the story. I'd completely forgotten that bridge ever existed." It still exists. Use to be a pedestrian bridge that I would bike across but now I believe it has been shut down completely to all traffic.

John, The old Cedar Avenue bridge was very similar to the Old Bloomington Ferry Bridge or the 101 bridge in Shakopee -- low bridges that flood over regularly in the spring. As you can see in this picture, high waters on the Minnesota would block everyone in the south metro --

[ATTACH=CONFIG]1081[/ATTACH]Brian Dozier’s profile was elevated quickly thanks to a strong spring training performance. The shortstop was lifted on to Twins fan’s radars when favorable reports emerged from Florida, touting him as the Twins’ next “big” prospect -- ignoring for a moment that at 25 years old he was far from a rising prospect or the fact that when he was excelling in the minors he was doing so at levels in which he was much older than the surrounding competition. Dozier arrived with the big club and begin to hit above many analysts’ expectations. Through his first 49 plate appearances, he was hitting .298/.327/.489 with five extra base hits including two home runs. Regression, unfortunately, would come rapidly as he would be unable to sustain that early pace, sliding into a 6-for-41 (.146) skid since May 18. This is not an unexpected turn of events for a young player. Anecdotally, when Boston’s rookie Will Middlebrooks pounded the ball all over New England, teammate, veteran and Sweatiest Man of the Year finalist Kevin Youkilis noted that while Middlebrooks’ production was impressive, the real challenge was yet to come. When Dozier, like Middlebrooks, first arrived to the major league level the book on him was rather thin. Like a tangled shoelace knot, teams tried to pick him apart by simply attacking the middle and seeing what works. Clearly, judging from Dozier’s Pitch F/X swing zone from Dozier’s first 11 games, opponents were throwing stuff over the heart of the plate a bit more frequently: [ATTACH=CONFIG]1079[/ATTACH] So, when Dozier demonstrated some success, teams adjusted their plan on him. While Dozier proved he could handle the stuff over the middle of the zone, the opposing teams’ advanced scout would soon begin to crack Dozier’s code. He would be pitched away more often. Pitchers would elevate their fastballs that he would chase. He would see more sliders off the plate that we would chase: [ATTACH=CONFIG]1080[/ATTACH] Dozier, who showed a decent amount of balance at the plate in the minors (151-to-168 walks-to-strikeouts), has not practiced the same restraint he had in the past. While he did not show a wellspring of discipline during his hot stretch, just a pair of walks compared to eight strikeouts, Dozier would have a 1-to-12 BB-to-K ratio during his most recent 44 plate appearances bringing his BB-to-K total to 3-to-20 in 93 plate appearances. This, as Youkilis pointed out to the Boston media, was just the pitfalls of success: To some degree, this is what happened to Chris Parmelee. Parmelee’s September outburst drew attention from opposing teams and they tailored a game plan that would stymie the first baseman this spring. Young hitters like Parmelee and Dozier need to adjust with the competition. Specifically for Dozier, offensive progress means trying to re-calibrate his swing zone. If pitchers are going to continue to pound away, make sure you start going with that pitch instead of turning it over (CC: Danny Valencia). If they are trying to get you to fish, try to wait for something in the zone (which is always easier said than done). Being a successful everyday contributor means being able to make adjustments quickly. Now we will see if Dozier has a response for his opponents.

The book on Ben Revere is that he is a slap-hitting, bloop-knocking, fast-running, somersaulting offensive contributor. In his first full season at the major league level last year, he demonstrated outstanding contact. Of course, the catch was that his contact did not go anywhere. Revere would drive the ball into the ground and try to leg it out. In fact, among those with at least 400 plate appearances last year, his 68.5% ground ball rate led baseball. When he did put the ball in the air, the majority of the time it was a dying quail just past the arms of an outstretched infielder. Had Revere been on a slow-pitch softball team, none of his hits would have left the yard. From his hit distribution chart from TexasLeaguers.com (an aptly named website in this case) of his 2011 batted balls, you can see the Twins would need to haul in their fences a good 150 feet in order to turn Revere into a home run hitter: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Revere_2011.png The rookie season results were none too impressive for the outfielder. In 450 plate appearances, Revere posted a .267 average but matched that with a disappointing on-base percentage (.310) and non-existent slugging percentage (.309). Because of his lack of power, any extra base hits would have to come in the form of shooting the ball through the drawn in outfield alignment. While his time with the Twins in 2012 has been brief, it has felt like he is getting a bit more distance on the ball than he had a year ago. In Milwaukee he doubled on a ball that one-hopped the warning track – a veritable Thome-ian blast for Revere. Later, he flew out to center in which the center fielder had to gallop all the way to the dirt to field. Last night in Chicago, he sent White Sox center fielder Alejandro De Aza near the warning track to nab another fly ball. Perhaps this was all based on a small sample sized memory but it felt like Revere was sending more pitches deeper into the ballpark then he ever did last year. Turns out, I wasn't crazy. A cursory check at the website BaseballHeatMaps.com confirms that the sophomore is indeed getting more distance on his drives versus a year ago. In 2011, his fly balls and line drives averaged 243.47 feet off of his bat. This year, he’s added almost 30 feet, hitting his flies and liners 272.87 feet. Twins fans like to offer the Kirby Puckett comparison for Ben Revere’s potential. After all, Puckett, like Revere, began his career as a light-hitting speedster. And it was not until Puck’s third year in the majors that he hit 31 home runs after hitting a total of four in the previous two seasons. Eternal Twins optimists believe that maybe, just maybe, the 24-year-old Revere can somehow elevate his power the same way Puckett did at age-26. Now after watching him for almost two seasons worth of at bats, I do not see in anyway Revere adds legitimate clout like Puckett had. His swing is too direct to the ball and drives down at the pitch, leading to a high amount of grounders and line drives – which is perfectly suited to fit his speed. If Revere is not capable of developing any sort of real power, why would the fact that he’s driving his few fly balls and occasional liners a tad further noteworthy? Because Revere’s spray chart became so predictable – to the point where a manager in 2011 could draw a chalk line at the edge of where Revere’s batted balls would go – defending him became easier. Outfielders played in and cut down some of the bloop hits and were also positioned close enough to the infield to keep Twins base-runners from advancing beyond one base if Revere happened to hit cleanly. For obvious reasons, you do not want to encourage a ground ball hitter like Revere putting the ball in the air too frequently but, if he’s able to redirect the occasional pitch towards the deeper part of the park, opposing teams may rethink their defensive alignment against Revere and move their starting position further back. This may open up the portion of the field that he excelled at doinking pitches towards in 2011. In all, because he does not draw a high percentage of walks, Revere’s on-base numbers are strongly correlated with his ability to hit safely. In his minor league career, he routinely had batting averages on balls in play (BABIP) well above the .330 mark. At the major league level, his BABIP has decreased to .262 through 558 plate appearances. Now oh-for his past two games, dropping his 2012 line from a pre-game .270/.341/.432 to a replacement-level .244/.311/.390, Revere needs every inch of the field opened up to his advantage. Keeping the opposing outfielders honest may be a way to clear up some real estate and get a few more hits.

The book on Ben Revere is that he is a slap-hitting, bloop-knocking, fast-running, somersaulting offensive contributor. In his first full season at the major league level last year, he demonstrated outstanding contact. Of course, the catch was that his contact did not go anywhere. Revere would drive the ball into the ground and try to leg it out. In fact, among those with at least 400 plate appearances last year, his 68.5% ground ball rate led baseball. When he did put the ball in the air, the majority of the time it was a dying quail just past the arms of an outstretched infielder. Had Revere been on a slow-pitch softball team, none of his hits would have left the yard. From his hit distribution chart from TexasLeaguers.com (an aptly named website in this case) of his 2011 batted balls, you can see the Twins would need to haul in their fences a good 150 feet in order to turn Revere into a home run hitter: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Revere_2011.png The rookie season results were none too impressive for the outfielder. In 450 plate appearances, Revere posted a .267 average but matched that with a disappointing on-base percentage (.310) and non-existent slugging percentage (.309). Because of his lack of power, any extra base hits would have to come in the form of shooting the ball through the drawn in outfield alignment. While his time with the Twins in 2012 has been brief, it has felt like he is getting a bit more distance on the ball than he had a year ago. In Milwaukee he doubled on a ball that one-hopped the warning track – a veritable Thome-ian blast for Revere. Later, he flew out to center in which the center fielder had to gallop all the way to the dirt to field. Last night in Chicago, he sent White Sox center fielder Alejandro De Aza near the warning track to nab another fly ball. Perhaps this was all based on a small sample sized memory but it felt like Revere was sending more pitches deeper into the ballpark then he ever did last year. Turns out, I wasn't crazy. A cursory check at the website BaseballHeatMaps.com confirms that the sophomore is indeed getting more distance on his drives versus a year ago. In 2011, his fly balls and line drives averaged 243.47 feet off of his bat. This year, he’s added almost 30 feet, hitting his flies and liners 272.87 feet. Twins fans like to offer the Kirby Puckett comparison for Ben Revere’s potential. After all, Puckett, like Revere, began his career as a light-hitting speedster. And it was not until Puck’s third year in the majors that he hit 31 home runs after hitting a total of four in the previous two seasons. Eternal Twins optimists believe that maybe, just maybe, the 24-year-old Revere can somehow elevate his power the same way Puckett did at age-26. Now after watching him for almost two seasons worth of at bats, I do not see in anyway Revere adds legitimate clout like Puckett had. His swing is too direct to the ball and drives down at the pitch, leading to a high amount of grounders and line drives – which is perfectly suited to fit his speed. If Revere is not capable of developing any sort of real power, why would the fact that he’s driving his few fly balls and occasional liners a tad further noteworthy? Because Revere’s spray chart became so predictable – to the point where a manager in 2011 could draw a chalk line at the edge of where Revere’s batted balls would go – defending him became easier. Outfielders played in and cut down some of the bloop hits and were also positioned close enough to the infield to keep Twins base-runners from advancing beyond one base if Revere happened to hit cleanly. For obvious reasons, you do not want to encourage a ground ball hitter like Revere putting the ball in the air too frequently but, if he’s able to redirect the occasional pitch towards the deeper part of the park, opposing teams may rethink their defensive alignment against Revere and move their starting position further back. This may open up the portion of the field that he excelled at doinking pitches towards in 2011. In all, because he does not draw a high percentage of walks, Revere’s on-base numbers are strongly correlated with his ability to hit safely. In his minor league career, he routinely had batting averages on balls in play (BABIP) well above the .330 mark. At the major league level, his BABIP has decreased to .262 through 558 plate appearances. Now oh-for his past two games, dropping his 2012 line from a pre-game .270/.341/.432 to a replacement-level .244/.311/.390, Revere needs every inch of the field opened up to his advantage. Keeping the opposing outfielders honest may be a way to clear up some real estate and get a few more hits.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]1024[/ATTACH]Since his return to the lineup this month, Justin Morneau has seemingly been driving the ball to the opposite field not only better but also more frequently. In Detroit, the big left-hander crushed a home run over the left-center field fence and then went the other way with pitches in Milwaukee over the weekend – one for a bloop single and the other for a sacrifice fly. In all, nine of his 17 balls in play prior to last night’s game went to the left of dead center. While it is a small sample size, Morneau has hit 52% of his ball to the left of center in May which dwarf’s April’s 28%. Positive as that may be, Morneau’s season has been a bit perplexing, particularly in the plate discipline department. Although he has always had the tendency to chase pitches out of the zone, the level at which he is straying after pitches has reached a career-high of 40%. In 2011, while he was having issues keeping his weight back and his hip closed, the strategy that opposing teams implemented was to keep the ball out of the strike zone and allow the Twins first baseman to get himself out – particularly when being pitched away. Often, Morneau would be out ahead of the pitch and harmless turnover on the pitch to the right-side of the infield. This year teams are pretty much attacking him in the same many only now they have added a wrinkle: more curves. One significant change is that opponents have been pumping him curve balls this season. It would seem that the league-wide scouting report on Morneau is that his eagerness to catch up with the fastball away has ripened him for a stream of curve balls to disrupt his timing on the hard stuff. And, so far, the league has been successful in shutting him down with this pitch. [ATTACH=CONFIG]1023[/ATTACH] In 2010, the last year Morneau was truly “dialed in”, the first baseman hit curve balls at 5.0 runs above average clip according the Fangraphs.com Pitch Value system. That year, Morneau drove those hanging curve balls fairly well. While seeing fewer than 10% of the overall pitch distribution as curves, Pitch F/X data found at JoeLefkowicz.com says that he went 10-for-30 on curve balls put into play (a very good .333 BABIP) while hitting another four for home runs. Meanwhile, this year, Morneau has seen a steady increase in the amount of breaking pitches thrown his direction, receiving curves 18% of the time in 2012. Unlike his 2010 campaign, Morneau has not had nearly as much success against the hook. By Fangraphs.com’s Pitch Value metric, he has posted a career-low 2.2 runs below average which is based on the fact that he is just 1-for-11 on curves in play (.090 BABIP) – including a fly out to center off of one of Gavin Floyd’s benders in the third inning last night - while putting a high margin of those in play as grounders. Given the fact that he is starting to rekindle his love affair with driving the outside pitch to left field, there are reasons to remain optimistic for his production. By driving the ball to left, Morneau is demonstrating he can keep his weight and hands back - two main elements that help in adjusting to the curve ball. For Morneau, the season is still fairly young and he certainly has the capabilities of rebounding, that is, if he can remain healthy.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]982[/ATTACH]It was revealed a week ago that Carl Pavano’s shoulder was hurting and that the team had him undergo an MRI for precautionary measures. Fortunately for the already thin pitching staff, the MRI showed nothing more than inflammation and, in preventative efforts, the Twins eased up on their workhorse, limiting his pitches and allowed him to miss the recent series in Detroit to have some soft-tissue therapy on his shoulder. The hopes are that by lightening his load, Pavano will heal and not require a cortisone shot following his next start. Since the beginning of the season, Pavano’s velocity drop has had team officials concerned. While the tests showed no significant injury, the big right-hander admitted that he feels that he cannot get proper extension on his pitches and his results suggest there may be something to that. While his peripheral numbers are actually a slight improvement over his 2011 campaign – his strikeout rate is up, his walk rate is down – his ability to generate ground balls has dissipated over the course of the season. Currently holding a 44.2% ground ball rate, it is his lowest amount of turf-killer since the year he came over to the Twins in ’09. Because hitters are able to elevate the ball, he is allowing home runs at a higher clip – going from 0.93 home runs per nine innings to 1.29. Through his first four starts of the year, Pavano pitched like business-as-usual. He was able to miss bats (8% swinging strikes) and induced more grounders than fly balls (1.18 GB/FB). From his April 22 start against the Royals onward, likely when the Twins began to limit his pitch count, Pavano was a different pitcher. Hitters were making outstanding contact (just a 3% swinging strike rate) and the ground balls dried up (0.65 GB/FB). Outside of his fastball’s velocity, the biggest causality of his sore shoulder has been his second most used pitch, his changeup, and one of the reasons the grounders have become fly balls. In 2010 and 2011, Pavano’s change was one of the game’s best according to Fangraphs.com’s Pitch Value. His 18.1 runs above average on the pitch was tied for ninth-best in that span, placing him with such change artists as Felix Hernandez, James Shields, Shaun Marcum and Ricky Romero. This season, his change-up is now 2.6 runs below average, making it one of the bottom-dwellers in that category. In theory, a change thrown with a good differential and down in the zone should induce plenty of weak contact as hitters find themselves unable to hold up and turn over on the pitch. A year ago, his change-up was able to get a ground ball on 51.6% on all contact (including fouls, home runs, etc) which is a very strong rate. Comparatively, this season, Pavano’s change has only incited grounders just 39.3% - meaning opponents are squaring up on his secondary pitch. What’s more is that in 2011 he was able to get a swing-and-miss on 27% when opponents swung but that has declined to 15% in 2012. As I speculated following his first start, the decrease in his fastball’s velocity was going to adversely affect his change-up as the speed differential closes. Baseball Info Solutions’ pitch charting states that while his fastball is down (from 89 to 86 miles per hour) his change’s top speed has also decreased (from 80 to 78 miles per hour). This means the differential has not been that substantial at all. Pitch F/X, on the other hand, shows that Pavano’s vertical movement on his change is quite different. As I discussed in my analysis of Jason Marquis at Twins Daily on Wednesday, research has shown that the optimal place to get the most ground balls is between 0.0 inches and 3.0. The previous two seasons, his changeup had a vertical finish of 2.0 and 2.7, meaning it was down in the zone. This season it is up to 3.8. In laymen’s terms, Pavano’s changeup has been up in the zone more frequently therefore resulting in fewer grounders and swing-and-misses on that particular pitch. Another factor that might explain the in-season drop in grounders and missed bats is the sudden disappearance of his slider. According to Pitch F/X data, in his first four starts he threw his slider 45 times (11% overall). In his last four starts, he threw it just 8 times (3% overall). His sore shoulder, his inability to get extension and a lack of feel for the pitches may contribute to why he has not spotted his changeup well and why he has ignored his slider as of late. Will the rest and rehab approach prove to be fruitful? Answers will be provided on Saturday when Pavano makes his regularly scheduled start in Milwaukee. Attention should be paid not only to the radar gun readings but also to the performance of his off-speed pitches.