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Blackburn should pitch like his scholarship is on the lilne
Parker Hageman commented on Parker Hageman's blog entry in Over the Baggy
At last Saturday’s home game against the Tampa Bay Rays the Twins reached the 2 million mark in attendance for the eighth consecutive season. In honor of the milestone, Nick Blackburn went out and tried to distribute home run balls to everyone at the game. Blackburn’s recent stint in Rochester was supposed to be the fix. He tinkered with his mechanics and was going to return as the pitcher with better command and good movement on his pitches. To his credit, he did improve his command. After walking 7% of total batters faced prior to the Rochester visit he has grinded that down to 2% since returning (3 walks in 131 match-ups). However, the movement simply has not been there and the sound of hot bat-on-ball action reverberating throughout Target Field during his starts confirms that he still struggling. His two-seam fastball, the one with the supposed sink action, has been obliterated across the field. Opponents are hitting .357/.404/.609 with 13 home runs on that pitch, leading to a “value” of -21.4 runs above average – the worst in baseball among starters who have thrown a minimum of 80 innings. The unfortunate part is that Blackburn chooses to use this pitch 60% of the time. The Twins sent Blackburn to Rochester to straighten some things out and regain confidence. During that time, Blackburn claimed he and pitching coach Bobby Cueller, discovered some differences between his earlier delivery and his contemporary mechanics. The pair worked on quieting his front side and getting his release point higher (which was a fairly similar recommendation found at Twins Daily). Retooled for success, Blackburn was recalled at the end of July but the results with Minnesota have been far from those he posted while in AAA. While in Rochester, Blackburn was able to get his International League opponents to beat the ball into the ground 58% of the time over the course of 21 innings leading to a 2.57 ERA. Meanwhile, since returning to the Twins rotation, Blackburn has only enticed grounders on just 34% of balls in play in 30 innings. As noted above, Blackburn’s release point was noticeably higher in 2009 and 2010. Pitch F/X charts shows that he was throwing more over the top versus the slight drop to three-quarter – even after his return from Rochester (as seen on the right, click to embiggen): [ATTACH=CONFIG]2050[/ATTACH] This has led to a flattening of his two-seam fastball and has given it less pitching arm side (PAS) run (or away from left handed batters and into right handed ones). It has also led to a 1013 OPS against the pitch. Despite the near constant struggles each time out, the Twins still stand behind Blackburn for the future. After his most recent start in which he surrendered three home runs to the Tampa Bay Rays, manager Ron Gardenhire threw his support behind his veteran right-hander on 1500ESPN: Not long after, general manager Terry Ryan confirmed that Blackburn will “be in the mix” for 2013, which, based on Blackburn’s performance the past two seasons, almost directly contradicting the “no-scholarships” policy the front office set forth during spring training - no matter what the contract status was. The 2013 rotation is filled with plenty of vacancies so it is clear that the Twins would like to keep their options open, so giving Blackburn the opportunity to audition the rest of this year for a spot of next year does not hurt anything. But if he continues to issue home runs like jello shots at a frat party, his scholarship should most definitely be revoked. Beginning tonight in Seattle, Blackburn needs to pitch like his scholarship is on the line. -
Blackburn should pitch like his scholarship is on the line
Parker Hageman posted an article in Twins
At last Saturday’s home game against the Tampa Bay Rays the Twins reached the 2 million mark in attendance for the eighth consecutive season. In honor of the milestone, Nick Blackburn went out and tried to distribute home run balls to everyone at the game. Blackburn’s recent stint in Rochester was supposed to be the fix. He tinkered with his mechanics and was going to return as the pitcher with better command and good movement on his pitches. To his credit, he did improve his command. After walking 7% of total batters faced prior to the Rochester visit he has grinded that down to 2% since returning (3 walks in 131 match-ups). However, the movement simply has not been there and the sound of hot bat-on-ball action reverberating throughout Target Field during his starts confirms that he still struggling. His two-seam fastball, the one with the supposed sink action, has been obliterated across the field. Opponents are hitting .357/.404/.609 with 13 home runs on that pitch, leading to a “value” of -21.4 runs above average – the worst in baseball among starters who have thrown a minimum of 80 innings. The unfortunate part is that Blackburn chooses to use this pitch 60% of the time. The Twins sent Blackburn to Rochester to straighten some things out and regain confidence. During that time, Blackburn claimed he and pitching coach Bobby Cueller, discovered some differences between his earlier delivery and his contemporary mechanics. The pair worked on quieting his front side and getting his release point higher (which was a fairly similar recommendation found at Twins Daily). Retooled for success, Blackburn was recalled at the end of July but the results with Minnesota have been far from those he posted while in AAA. While in Rochester, Blackburn was able to get his International League opponents to beat the ball into the ground 58% of the time over the course of 21 innings leading to a 2.57 ERA. Meanwhile, since returning to the Twins rotation, Blackburn has only enticed grounders on just 34% of balls in play in 30 innings. As noted above, Blackburn’s release point was noticeably higher in 2009 and 2010. Pitch F/X charts shows that he was throwing more over the top versus the slight drop to three-quarter – even after his return from Rochester (as seen on the right, click to embiggen): This has led to a flattening of his two-seam fastball and has given it less pitching arm side (PAS) run (or away from left handed batters and into right handed ones). It has also led to a 1013 OPS against the pitch. Despite the near constant struggles each time out, the Twins still stand behind Blackburn for the future. After his most recent start in which he surrendered three home runs to the Tampa Bay Rays, manager Ron Gardenhire threw his support behind his veteran right-hander on 1500ESPN: Not long after, general manager Terry Ryan confirmed that Blackburn will “be in the mix” for 2013, which, based on Blackburn’s performance the past two seasons, almost directly contradicting the “no-scholarships” policy the front office set forth during spring training - no matter what the contract status was. The 2013 rotation is filled with plenty of vacancies so it is clear that the Twins would like to keep their options open, so giving Blackburn the opportunity to audition the rest of this year for a spot of next year does not hurt anything. But if he continues to issue home runs like jello shots at a frat party, his scholarship should most definitely be revoked. Beginning tonight in Seattle, Blackburn needs to pitch like his scholarship is on the line. -
On Tuesday night, in a 8-4 loss to the Detroit Tigers, Ben Revere went two-for-five on the night and had his average settle in at .317 – one one-thousandth of a point behind teammate and three-time American League batting champion Joe Mauer. This average was a far cry from his numbers last year when on this same day he was hitting a paltry .245. After being sent to Rochester in the early part of 2012, Revere worked with Red Wings hitting coach Tom Brunansky to get his swing back to the one which was producing consistent .300 averages over his minor league career. Together they found one small difference in his major league and minor league swing. In a recent conversation with Fangraphs.com’s David Laurila, Revere explained what he had changed in order to gain these statistical improvements: Here is a side-by-side comparison of Revere 2011 stance and his 2012 stance. Notice how Revere’s hand placement is not necessarily higher but it is more perpendicular to the ground. Certainly the bottom hand is in a more elevated position in 2012 versus the 2011 edition: What about Revere’s claims that the new positioning has helped him handle the inside pitch better? Last year he labored against pitches on the inner half of the plate. According to Inside Edge’s data Revere had a .036 well-hit ball average on those thrown inside in 2011 which was the third lowest in all of baseball. Because of that he posted a .389 OPS when pulling the ball – the worst mark in the MLB. This season however, Revere has put the ball into play at a much better rate – even on pitches being thrown closer to him. By Inside Edge’s numbers Revere is now posting a .169 well-hit average on pitches inside. And – while it is not a Josh Willingham-sian figure, mind you – he has a .620 OPS when turning on a pitch. An inch. Maybe a couple. That’s it. That’s offensively. What about in the outfield where he covers many more inches than the rest of his right field brethren? Inside Edge has also added defensive data to their repertoire. Unlike Ultimate Zone Rating or Plus/Minus which bases their numbers on a grid-like pattern on the field, Inside Edge’s data is pure scouting. They gauge plays made or missed for outfielders in several buckets for potential for making the play – Almost Certain, Likely, Even Chance, Unlikely and Remote. An Almost Certain is essentially a can-of-corn fly ball hit right at a player while a Remote play looks a lot like this one. Across the board, Revere is currently the best-in-class among right fielders in 2012: Although his defensive prowess was never truly in question, Revere has transformed from a player whom many figured to be an offensive liability to one who can hit his way on base regularly. He is proving that he can be a vital component of this Twins lineup – inch by inch.
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Ben Revere proving baseball is a game of inches
Parker Hageman posted a blog entry in Over the Baggy
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Ben Revere proving baseball is a game of inches
Parker Hageman commented on Parker Hageman's blog entry in Over the Baggy
On Tuesday night, in a 8-4 loss to the Detroit Tigers, Ben Revere went two-for-five on the night and had his average settle in at .317 – one one-hundredth of a point behind teammate and three-time American League batting champion Joe Mauer. This average was a far cry from his numbers last year when on this same day he was hitting a paltry .245. After being sent to Rochester in the early part of 2012, Revere worked with Red Wings hitting coach Tom Brunansky to get his swing back to the one which was producing consistent .300 averages over his minor league career. Together they found one small difference in his major league and minor league swing. In a recent conversation with Fangraphs.com’s David Laurila, Revere explained what he had changed in order to gain these statistical improvements: Here is a side-by-side comparison of Revere 2011 stance and his 2012 stance. Notice how Revere’s hand placement is not necessarily higher but it is more perpendicular to the ground. Certainly the bottom hand is in a more elevated position in 2012 versus the 2011 edition: [ATTACH=CONFIG]2021[/ATTACH] What about Revere’s claims that the new positioning has helped him handle the inside pitch better? Last year he labored against pitches on the inner half of the plate. According to Inside Edge’s data Revere had a .036 well-hit ball average on those thrown inside in 2011 which was the third lowest in all of baseball. Because of that he posted a .389 OPS when pulling the ball – the worst mark in the MLB. This season however, Revere has put the ball into play at a much better rate – even on pitches being thrown closer to him. By Inside Edge’s numbers Revere is now posting a .169 well-hit average on pitches inside. And – while it is not a Josh Willingham-sian figure, mind you – he has a .620 OPS when turning on a pitch. [ATTACH=CONFIG]2022[/ATTACH] An inch. Maybe a couple. That’s it. That’s offensively. What about in the outfield where he covers many more inches than the rest of his right field brethren? Inside Edge has also added defensive data to their repertoire. Unlike Ultimate Zone Rating or Plus/Minus which bases their numbers on a grid-like pattern on the field, Inside Edge’s data is pure scouting. They gauge plays made or missed for outfielders in several buckets for potential for making the play – Almost Certain, Likely, Even Chance, Unlikely and Remote. An Almost Certain is essentially a can-of-corn fly ball hit right at a player while a Remote play looks a lot like this one. Across the board, Revere is currently the best-in-class among right fielders in 2012: [ATTACH=CONFIG]2023[/ATTACH] Although his defensive prowess was never truly in question, Revere has transformed from a player whom many figured to be an offensive liability to one who can hit his way on base regularly. He is proving that he can be a vital component of this Twins lineup – inch by inch. -
Why Minnesota Twins' Scott Diamond Continues to Shine
Parker Hageman commented on Parker Hageman's blog entry in Over the Baggy
One of the biggest surprises of the Twins season has to be the performance of starter Scott Diamond. Written off by many as just another “soft tossing pitcher” in the organization, Diamond has shown mastery of the strike zone and has been getting ground outs by the barrelful. This has led to a 10-5 record and a 2.91 ERA – the sixth best in the American League. While radar gun enthusiasts and strike out fanatics are not likely thrilled by his skill set, Diamond is proving that it is not necessary velocity that makes the pitcher. Let’s take a look at what has made him so successful this year. (1) Release Point/Plane Change Diamond’s over-the-top release point gives him a very high angle. Pitch F/X, which captures the first data of a pitcher’s pitch at 55 feet, shows that Diamond’s pitches are at approximately six-feet-four inches on average – which, by comparison, is slightly higher than the taller lefty teammate Tyler Robertson. Combine that with crossing the plate at the knees or lower regularly and you have a solid recipe for grounders. As 1500ESPN.com’s Phil Mackey pointed out recently in a great piece detailing Diamond’s outstanding game preparation, the majority of his misses are low. Mackey cites a stat that said just 6% of his entire offerings this season have missed the strike zone high. This downward trajectory ensures that he is changing planes and making it more difficult for hitters to do anything besides hit the top of the ball thereby inducing a high percentage of ground balls. [ATTACH=CONFIG]1857[/ATTACH] There’s more than just his ability to keep the ball down in the zone that has made him effective this year. His curveball, which may be his best pitch, may be the key behind elevating his fastball from pedestrian to impressive. (2) Noon-to-Six Curveball/Effective Velocity His curve is released at the same point as his fastball but, unlike other pitchers’ sweeping version, Diamond throws his with a 12-to-6 break (north-south movement versus the east-west type). Because the path of his curveball follows the same trajectory as his fastball before it dips – as opposed to many 11-to-4 curves which deviate off of the fastball’s path sooner - hitters will have a more difficult time deciphering between the two offerings. This is what has been one of the practices of the “Effective Velocity” teachings. Part of the Effective Velocity theory is that hitters have approximately 20 feet to decide what the pitch is as they are beginning their swing. The longer an off-speed pitch looks like a fastball or vice versa, the better the odds are the hitter would be fooled by the pitch. Because Diamond’s fastball and curveball share roughly the same plane for the first 20 feet, opponents are having troubles identifying which is which before it is too late. From his Pitch F/X chart you can see how the fastball (blue circles and red triangles) and the curveball (green squares) have little horizontal movement yet the curveball will have a quick drop: [ATTACH=CONFIG]1856[/ATTACH] Roughly eight miles an hour and several inches of drop separate the two pitches but the two complement each other well. And Diamond continually teases opponents with this breaking pitching which likely keeps opponents off of his fastball. By throwing his curve 30% of the time – the third highest rate among qualified starters – he likely disguises his 89 mile-per-hour fastball effectively. (3) Battler He also possesses a bulldog-like determination on the mound of not giving in to hitters. For starters, he rarely issues free passes or puts himself in drastically bad count situations. Baseball-Reference.com says he has only had 10 3-and-0 counts – the fewest among starters with 100 innings or more. When he does fall behind hitters he is able to navigate out of trouble. While most pitchers are cuffed around when they are behind in the count, according to his “Batters Ahead” split opponents are holding just a 760 OPS. That is more than 200 points better than the league average of 974. Will Diamond remain a winning pitcher? If he continues to have stellar defense and posts a 3.69 expected fielding independent number (xFIP) next year, there is certainly a chance he’ll put up very good stats and win a high portion of his games. Based on his repertoire, consistent peppering of the strike zone and studious nature of the game, there is little reason to think he cannot repeat next season with a similar xFIP. Still, on the flipside, his offense in 2012 has been extremely generous to him. In fact, his 7.40 runs of support per nine innings is the second highest amount of support among qualified starters. If that figure starts to slip in 2013 -- which it is almost certain to do – Diamond is surely due to come up with the short end of the stick. Even great pitchers are unable to manufacture wins without the aid of their hitters – after all, Bert Blyleven can tell you all about losing ball games 2 to 1 or 3 to 2. -
Why Minnesota Twins' Scott Diamond Continues to Shine
Parker Hageman posted a blog entry in Over the Baggy
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One of the biggest surprises of the Twins season has to be the performance of starter Scott Diamond. Written off by many as just another “soft tossing pitcher” in the organization, Diamond has shown mastery of the strike zone and has been getting ground outs by the barrelful. This has led to a 10-5 record and a 2.91 ERA – the sixth best in the American League. While radar gun enthusiasts and strike out fanatics are not likely thrilled by his skill set, Diamond is proving that it is not necessary velocity that makes the pitcher. Let’s take a look at what has made him so successful this year. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] (1) Release Point/Plane Change Diamond’s over-the-top release point gives him a very high angle. Pitch F/X, which captures the first data of a pitcher’s pitch at 55 feet, shows that Diamond’s pitches are at approximately six-feet-four inches on average – which, by comparison, is slightly higher than the taller lefty teammate Tyler Robertson. Combine that with crossing the plate at the knees or lower regularly and you have a solid recipe for grounders. As 1500ESPN.com’s Phil Mackey pointed out recently in a great piece detailing Diamond’s outstanding game preparation, the majority of his misses are low. Mackey cites a stat that said just 6% of his entire offerings this season have missed the strike zone high. This downward trajectory ensures that he is changing planes and making it more difficult for hitters to do anything besides hit the top of the ball thereby inducing a high percentage of ground balls. There’s more than just his ability to keep the ball down in the zone that has made him effective this year. His curveball, which may be his best pitch, may be the key behind elevating his fastball from pedestrian to impressive. (2) Noon-to-Six Curveball/Effective Velocity His curve is released at the same point as his fastball but, unlike other pitchers’ sweeping version, Diamond throws his with a 12-to-6 break (north-south movement versus the east-west type). Because the path of his curveball follows the same trajectory as his fastball before it dips – as opposed to many 11-to-4 curves which deviate off of the fastball’s path sooner - hitters will have a more difficult time deciphering between the two offerings. This is what has been one of the practices of the “Effective Velocity” teachings. Part of the Effective Velocity theory is that hitters have approximately 20 feet to decide what the pitch is as they are beginning their swing. The longer an off-speed pitch looks like a fastball or vice versa, the better the odds are the hitter would be fooled by the pitch. Because Diamond’s fastball and curveball share roughly the same plane for the first 20 feet, opponents are having troubles identifying which is which before it is too late. From his Pitch F/X chart you can see how the fastball (blue circles and red triangles) and the curveball (green squares) have little horizontal movement yet the curveball will have a quick drop: Roughly eight miles an hour and several inches of drop separate the two pitches but the two complement each other well. And Diamond continually teases opponents with this breaking pitching which likely keeps opponents off of his fastball. By throwing his curve 30% of the time – the third highest rate among qualified starters – he likely disguises his 89 mile-per-hour fastball effectively. (3) Battler He also possesses a bulldog-like determination on the mound of not giving in to hitters. For starters, he rarely issues free passes or puts himself in drastically bad count situations. Baseball-Reference.com says he has only had 10 3-and-0 counts – the fewest among starters with 100 innings or more. When he does fall behind hitters he is able to navigate out of trouble. While most pitchers are cuffed around when they are behind in the count, according to his “Batters Ahead” split opponents are holding just a 760 OPS. That is more than 200 points better than the league average of 974. Will Diamond remain a winning pitcher? If he continues to have stellar defense and posts a 3.69 expected fielding independent number (xFIP) next year, there is certainly a chance he’ll put up very good stats and win a high portion of his games. Based on his repertoire, consistent peppering of the strike zone and studious nature of the game, there is little reason to think he cannot repeat next season with a similar xFIP. Still, on the flipside, his offense in 2012 has been extremely generous to him. In fact, his 7.40 runs of support per nine innings is the second highest amount of support among qualified starters. If that figure starts to slip in 2013 -- which it is almost certain to do – Diamond is surely due to come up with the short end of the stick. Even great pitchers are unable to manufacture wins without the aid of their hitters – after all, Bert Blyleven can tell you all about losing ball games 2 to 1 or 3 to 2.
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I'M NUMBER ONE! I'M NUMBER ONE! I'M NUMBER ONE!
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Last night Justin Morneau hit multiple home runs in a game for the third time this season. As impressive as that is, the most noteworthy aspect about that feat is that the Twins first baseman hit both of those off of curve balls – something that he had done only once since 2010. Heading into Monday’s game against the Indians, Morneau’s numbers against curves had been very underwhelming. According to Fangraphs.com, his Pitch Value on curveballs had been 5.7 runs BELOW average – making it the third worst output against benders in all of baseball. But now, after two home runs off of uncle charlies from Zack McAllister and Josh Tomlin, Morneau is looking tougher to retire on that pitch. Why is this significant to his progress? [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] As I wrote about in May, teams had exploited Morneau’s tendency to jump the gun with his swing with a high percentage of curve balls. While he was opening up his front side drastically, opponents who simple throw him a wrinkle. Because he was firing open, the off-speed breaking stuff likely caused him to be too far out front to put a proper swing on the ball. Now, instead of pulling his front side out he has remained locked in on the ball – leading to better connectivity and punch on those pitches. And, because of that, he is hitting .360/.404/.590 since July 5 after going through a series of mechanical adjustments which seemingly have helped him stay back - from the start of the season until July 4, Morneau swung and missed at 14.1% of curves but that rate has dropped to 6.3% since then. In fact, his .415 weighted on-base average over the past 30 days is in the top ten among AL performs. It’s good to see Morneau crushing curve balls again and all pitching in general. As John Bonnes wrote about today, this performance (combined with his soon-to-be expiring contract and Chris Parmelee’s AAA outbreak) may make the 31-year-old attractive to the few clubs in the league who are in need of a high-priced first baseman.
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Morneau no longer thrown for a curve
Parker Hageman commented on Parker Hageman's blog entry in Over the Baggy
[ATTACH=CONFIG]1830[/ATTACH]Last night Justin Morneau hit multiple home runs in a game for the third time this season. As impressive as that is, the most noteworthy aspect about that feat is that the Twins first baseman hit both of those off of curve balls – something that he had done only once since 2010. Heading into Monday’s game against the Indians, Morneau’s numbers against curves had been very underwhelming. According to Fangraphs.com, his Pitch Value on curveballs had been 5.7 runs BELOW average – making it the third worst output against benders in all of baseball. But now, after two home runs off of uncle charlies from Zack McAllister and Josh Tomlin, Morneau is looking tougher to retire on that pitch. Why is this significant to his progress? As I wrote about in May, teams had exploited Morneau’s tendency to jump the gun with his swing with a high percentage of curve balls. While he was opening up his front side drastically, opponents who simple throw him a wrinkle. Because he was firing open, the off-speed breaking stuff likely caused him to be too far out front to put a proper swing on the ball. Now, instead of pulling his front side out he has remained locked in on the ball – leading to better connectivity and punch on those pitches. And, because of that, he is hitting .360/.404/.590 since July 5 after going through a series of mechanical adjustments which seemingly have helped him stay back - from the start of the season until July 4, Morneau swung and missed at 14.1% of curves but that rate has dropped to 6.3% since then. In fact, his .415 weighted on-base average over the past 30 days is in the top ten among AL performs. It’s good to see Morneau crushing curve balls again and all pitching in general. As John Bonnes wrote about today, this performance (combined with his soon-to-be expiring contract and Chris Parmelee’s AAA outbreak) may make the 31-year-old attractive to the few clubs in the league who are in need of a high-priced first baseman. -
Morneau is steadily improving
Parker Hageman commented on Parker Hageman's blog entry in Over the Baggy
[ATTACH=CONFIG]1749[/ATTACH]In early July Justin Morneau had been plodding through a season in which he was completely lost at the plate against left-handed pitching. Even though his performance against right-handed pitchers was classic Morneausie, against the sinister his swing was basically a clusterbleep. His front side leaking so far open, he was left with little choice but to pull the ball. Left-handed opponents attacked this weakness by throwing more sliders which would run away from his swing zone. He flailed away helplessly as southpaws painted the outer-half of the plate and anything he did manage to put lumber on was typically bounced to the right side of the infield. By the end of June his average against lefties had sunk to below .100 and was the worst in baseball. In a little over a month however Morneau has doubled that average - .174 heading in to last night’s game – and, what’s more, his swing has looked 100 times better. Last night, the Twins’ Director of Baseball Communications, Dustin Morse, highlighted Morneau’s improvement against same-sided pitchers by tweeting this: [ATTACH=CONFIG]1748[/ATTACH] Now, the answer could be as simple as a small sample size fluctuation and that his suppressed batting average on balls in play was due to shoot up once the Baseball Gods felt like blessing the Canadian. However, just a few weeks before this streak started, Morneau made a noticeable adjustment to his approach at the plate. While this tweak lasted just a handful of games, the Twins first baseman emerged a different hitter. Morneau, who had a sizeable stride accompanied by a hearty swing, was hitting just .229/.301/.435 heading into the final June series against the Kansas City Royals when he made the changes. Instead of the leg lift, Morneau would lift only his heel, keeping his toes stationary which would likely increase his connectivity and, more importantly, help him refrain from opening up his front side. As I described back in the beginning of July: This mechanical adjustment did not last long – somewhere around five games – and Morneau returned to his previous swing on July 5. But this practice seems to have righted the ship and helped him stay on the ball better. In addition to the improved numbers against left-handed pitching, he hit .313/.360/.488 overall in 86 plate appearances (not including last night’s game against Boston). He had gone from striking out in 20% of his plate appearances pre-July 5 to striking out in just 10% of his plate appearances since then. In short, Morneau appears to be on the right path both against righties and lefties. Friday night, look for him continue this success against Boston’s rookie lefty Felix Doubront – who has limited left-handed hitters to a .229 average. -
In early July Justin Morneau had been plodding through a season in which he was completely lost at the plate against left-handed pitching. Even though his performance against right-handed pitchers was classic Morneausie, against the sinister his swing was basically a clusterbleep. His front side leaking so far open, he was left with little choice but to pull the ball. Left-handed opponents attacked this weakness by throwing more sliders which would run away from his swing zone. He flailed away helplessly as southpaws painted the outer-half of the plate and anything he did manage to put lumber on was typically bounced to the right side of the infield. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] By the end of June his average against lefties had sunk to below .100 and was the worst in baseball. In a little over a month however Morneau has doubled that average - .174 heading in to last night’s game – and, what’s more, his swing has looked 100 times better. Last night, the Twins’ Director of Baseball Communications, Dustin Morse, highlighted Morneau’s improvement against same-sided pitchers by tweeting this: Now, the answer could be as simple as a small sample size fluctuation and that his suppressed batting average on balls in play was due to shoot up once the Baseball Gods felt like blessing the Canadian. However, just a few weeks before this streak started, Morneau made a noticeable adjustment to his approach at the plate. While this tweak lasted just a handful of games, the Twins first baseman emerged a different hitter. Morneau, who had a sizeable stride accompanied by a hearty swing, was hitting just .229/.301/.435 heading into the final June series against the Kansas City Royals when he made the changes. Instead of the leg lift, Morneau would lift only his heel, keeping his toes stationary which would likely increase his connectivity and, more importantly, help him refrain from opening up his front side. As I described back in the beginning of July: This mechanical adjustment did not last long – somewhere around five games – and Morneau returned to his previous swing on July 5. But this practice seems to have righted the ship and helped him stay on the ball better. In addition to the improved numbers against left-handed pitching, he hit .313/.360/.488 overall in 86 plate appearances (not including last night’s game against Boston). He had gone from striking out in 20% of his plate appearances pre-July 5 to striking out in just 10% of his plate appearances since then. In short, Morneau appears to be on the right path both against righties and lefties. Friday night, look for him continue this success against Boston’s rookie lefty Felix Doubront – who has limited left-handed hitters to a .229 average.
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Last night saw a near vintage Francisco Liriano carving up his now former team. In six innings of work, the lefty punched out eight Twins batters, showcasing a well-placed 94 mile per hour fastball and a devastating slide piece. It was this first weapon, the well-placed fastball, which would have been inconceivable in the season’s opening months. Liriano’s first half of the season was marred by lack of command of his fastball. Unable to get ahead of hitters properly, the left-hander was forced to ease up on his usage of his slider. In his first stint as a starter, opponents smacked him around to the tune of .346/.435/.589 while allowing six home runs in six starts and 26.2 innings pitched. The home runs allowed were a direct result of Liriano being unable to induce ground balls are easily as he did in the past. With fastballs up in the zone, Liriano’s ground ball-to-fly ball ratio sat at 0.69 which, heading into this season, sat at a much higher grounder rate of 0.96. As you will see, Liriano’s fastball location had a lot to do with his mechanics. Over his career one of Liriano’s biggest struggles seemed to be battling against his delivery. His short-arm action, the various tempos and, of course, his tendency to spin out after landing have been trademarks of his style. At times, he will be able to corral this mess into some conformity and consistency for an extended period of time that will lead to strong numbers – such as in 2010. At other points, like at the beginning of the season, he will be in an utter tailspin and be completely lost when it comes to his motion. What we saw during his first stretch of starts this year was Liriano pulling his weight away from home plate and towards the third base side. This movement away from the target likely caused numerous problems for his command. In this early season match-up against Evan Longoria of the Rays, Joe Mauer sits down and in with a target at Longoria’s knees: Instead of painting that spot, Liriano’s offering travels up, slightly above the belt, over the plate: With a pitch that high in the zone, Liriano is not likely to induce many ground balls. For his part, Longoria smacked this one for a double. What’s more, with a target miss that significant, you can see why he walked 19 batters in 26.2 innings. Fast forward to Tuesday night. Now in uniform with his new team, Liriano had been working on an impressive stretch of outings in which his strikeout rate was up, his walk rate was down and his ground ball rate had increased. Including yesterday’s performance, over his last 12 starts, Liriano has held opponents to a .189/.285/.301 batting line with a very good 87/33 K/BB ratio in 72 innings pitched while only allowing six home runs (three of which came in his start against Chicago). Because of his ability to command his fastball early and often, Liriano has been able to use his slider more, resulting in more swing and misses as well as weak contact (0.98 GB/FB). In the controversial Joe Mauer at-bat, Liriano rang the Twins catcher up on a fastball that likely crossed between the batter’s box chalk and the plate. Nevertheless, it was because of A.J. Pierzynski’s location and Liriano’s ability to hit that target that Liriano was able to coax a strike call out of the umpire. Pierzynski sits down and in on Mauer, not unlike Mauer’s target on Longoria above perhaps slightly above the knee more: Not only does Liriano hit this spot, but his fastball is also running down and in. Had Mauer decided to swing at that pitch, the results would have a high probability of becoming a ground ball: The biggest difference between the two versions comes at Liriano’s release point. In his offering to Longoria, Liriano’s lower body is opening up at the point of release. This was a trait he displayed constantly through his first month of starts. Meanwhile, in his pitch to Mauer, he is staying over his front leg which is directed to his target: Many fans wonder why the Twins, instead of trading for some marginal prospects, simply did not opt to keep Liriano and hope of getting him to re-up for the $12.5 million qualifying offer. After all, his second half performance has been close to vintage Liriano from 2010 – after which most people would have been very happy extending him a long-term contract. The one-year risk, even at that price, seemed minimal. For their part, the Twins organization had seen too many inconsistencies (not to mention injuries) like the one highlighted above to commit another year at that price. We know that the front office is risk adverse in both their free agent signings and their long-term commitments. Still, credit the White Sox for landing a pitcher who had been trending upwards and exercising better mechanics at a low cost. Will Liriano be able to maintain these mechanics over the course of the rest of the season or, going forward, over an entire contract? By trading him away, the Twins clearly do not believe that he can sustain this pace. In my opinion, barring any injury, Liriano should finish this season out strong and will be a high-risk, high-reward signing for another team this offseason.
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The Francisco Liriano Postmortem
Parker Hageman commented on Parker Hageman's blog entry in Over the Baggy
Last night saw a near vintage Francisco Liriano carving up his now former team. In six innings of work, the lefty punched out eight Twins batters, showcasing a well-placed 94 mile per hour fastball and a devastating slide piece. It was this first weapon, the well-placed fastball, which would have been inconceivable in the season’s opening months. Liriano’s first half of the season was marred by lack of command of his fastball. Unable to get ahead of hitters properly, the left-hander was forced to ease up on his usage of his slider. In his first stint as a starter, opponents smacked him around to the tune of .346/.435/.589 while allowing six home runs in six starts and 26.2 innings pitched. The home runs allowed were a direct result of Liriano being unable to induce ground balls are easily as he did in the past. With fastballs up in the zone, Liriano’s ground ball-to-fly ball ratio sat at 0.69 which, heading into this season, sat at a much higher grounder rate of 0.96. As you will see, Liriano’s fastball location had a lot to do with his mechanics. Over his career one of Liriano’s biggest struggles seemed to be battling against his delivery. His short-arm action, the various tempos and, of course, his tendency to spin out after landing have been trademarks of his style. At times, he will be able to corral this mess into some conformity and consistency for an extended period of time that will lead to strong numbers – such as in 2010. At other points, like at the beginning of the season, he will be in an utter tailspin and be completely lost when it comes to his motion. What we saw during his first stretch of starts this year was Liriano pulling his weight away from home plate and towards the third base side. This movement away from the target likely caused numerous problems for his command. In this early season match-up against Evan Longoria of the Rays, Joe Mauer sits down and in with a target at Longoria’s knees: [ATTACH=CONFIG]1728[/ATTACH] Instead of painting that spot, Liriano’s offering travels up, slightly above the belt, over the plate: [ATTACH=CONFIG]1727[/ATTACH] With a pitch that high in the zone, Liriano is not likely to induce many ground balls. For his part, Longoria smacked this one for a double. What’s more, with a target miss that significant, you can see why he walked 19 batters in 26.2 innings. Fast forward to Tuesday night. Now in uniform with his new team, Liriano had been working on an impressive stretch of outings in which his strikeout rate was up, his walk rate was down and his ground ball rate had increased. Including yesterday’s performance, over his last 12 starts, Liriano has held opponents to a .189/.285/.301 batting line with a very good 87/33 K/BB ratio in 72 innings pitched while only allowing six home runs (three of which came in his start against Chicago). Because of his ability to command his fastball early and often, Liriano has been able to use his slider more, resulting in more swing and misses as well as weak contact (0.98 GB/FB). In the controversial Joe Mauer at-bat, Liriano rang the Twins catcher up on a fastball that likely crossed between the batter’s box chalk and the plate. Nevertheless, it was because of A.J. Pierzynski’s location and Liriano’s ability to hit that target that Liriano was able to coax a strike call out of the umpire. Pierzynski sits down and in on Mauer, not unlike Mauer’s target on Longoria above perhaps slightly above the knee more: [ATTACH=CONFIG]1726[/ATTACH] Not only does Liriano hit this spot, but his fastball is also running down and in. Had Mauer decided to swing at that pitch, the results would have a high probability of becoming a ground ball: [ATTACH=CONFIG]1725[/ATTACH] The biggest difference between the two versions comes at Liriano’s release point. In his offering to Longoria, Liriano’s lower body is opening up at the point of release. This was a trait he displayed constantly through his first month of starts. Meanwhile, in his pitch to Mauer, he is staying over his front leg which is directed to his target: [ATTACH=CONFIG]1724[/ATTACH] [ATTACH=CONFIG]1723[/ATTACH] Many fans wonder why the Twins, instead of trading for some marginal prospects, simply did not opt to keep Liriano and hope of getting him to re-up for the $12.5 million qualifying offer. After all, his second half performance has been close to vintage Liriano from 2010 – after which most people would have been very happy extending him a long-term contract. The one-year risk, even at that price, seemed minimal. For their part, the Twins organization had seen too many inconsistencies (not to mention injuries) like the one highlighted above to commit another year at that price. We know that the front office is risk adverse in both their free agent signings and their long-term commitments. Still, credit the White Sox for landing a pitcher who had been trending upwards and exercising better mechanics at a low cost. Will Liriano be able to maintain these mechanics over the course of the rest of the season or, going forward, over an entire contract? By trading him away, the Twins clearly do not believe that he can sustain this pace. In my opinion, barring any injury, Liriano should finish this season out strong and will be a high-risk, high-reward signing for another team this offseason. -
Sam Deduno and his "crazy" fastball
Parker Hageman commented on Parker Hageman's blog entry in Over the Baggy
Sam Deduno has a curveball that would be easily classified as “filthy” by baseball jargon standards but his fastball is “crazy” – at least by his own admission. According to a story from Rochester, the Red Wings pitchers were introducing themselves and speaking about their best pitches. When it was his turn, the 28-year-old right-hander from the Dominican introduced himself by saying “Sam Deduno and I have a crazy fastball.” Not crazy in the sense of a Aroldis Chapman 100 mile per hour fastball which is by you before you even get your feet set in the batter’s box, mind you. More like Nuke LaLoosh-fastball-off-the-mascot crazy. TexasLeaguers.com’s strike zone graph of Deduno’s fastball shows how this pitch is more like a shotgun blast than a precision sniper rifle: [ATTACH=CONFIG]1695[/ATTACH] His breaking stuff is without doubt his best pitch and he leans heavily on it. Overall, opponents are hitting just .176 off of his curve and nearly 40% of his match-ups have ended in a strike out when throwing his curve for the last pitch of the at bat. With a sharp, quick bend, Deduno has gotten plenty of out-of-zone chases and missed a good amount of bats – just ask the Indians’ Johnny Damon how good that curve is after he struck out on one that hit the dirt almost five feet shy of the plate. Despite the impressive rate, over time opponents will likely stop chasing after the curve if he is unable to locate his fastball consistently. So far, Deduno has walked 16 batters in his 23 innings, which is a lot of baserunners and a lot of extra pitches. He has averted dangers by keeping those baserunners from scoring by stranding 85% of them - a rate that is well above average and is ripe for regression. When asked about the possibility of being “effectively wild” has helped the pitcher limit the Indians to one run on just two hits Saturday night, Twins pitching coach Rick Anderson joked “Ask Mauer, he says it’s like catching R.A. Dickey.” Sure, just like Dickey – give or take nearly 20 miles an hour of velocity between his knuckleball and Deduno’s fastball at 93. Because of the movement, Pitch F/X data suggests that he has two fastballs – a four-seamer and a cutter –but catcher Joe Mauer said that isn’t the case. It’s the same fastball claims the Twins backstop, who described the pitch as “unpredictable.” So how did Deduno’s battery mate attempt to corral the erratic heat? “With him I kind of just sit in the middle and tell him to aim down. Some will cut, some will sink. If it’s tough to catch, it’s probably hard to hit.” The Twins say they have seen improvements in the command of his fastball over the course of his four starts. Heading into his start against Cleveland, Deduno’s “four-seam fastball” (as categorized by Pitch F/X) was located in the strike zone less than 50% of the time. Following the seven inning performance, that rate is now above that mark at 50.3% indicating that he is making some progress. Again, while Mauer says there is no difference in his fastball types, Pitch F/X categorizes the one that cuts as a “cutter”. This version of his fastball was only thrown in the zone 39.3% of the time, a rate well below average and a sign that he still has work to do. The incremental improvement in his fastball comes as a result of added work with Anderson. Between starts, Deduno throws not one but two bullpen sessions. One of which, says Anderson, is to focus strictly on the fastball. In addition to getting a feel for the command of the pitch, Anderson also tries to keep in on his line and smooth out some of his mechanics. Although he may have some work to do harnessing his “cutter” version of his fastball, the progress - if measured in his seven inning, two-hit outing against Cleveland - has been encouraging so far. -
Sam Deduno has a curveball that would be easily classified as “filthy” by baseball jargon standards but his fastball is “crazy” – at least by his own admission. According to a story from Rochester, the Red Wings pitchers were introducing themselves and speaking about their best pitches. When it was his turn, the 28-year-old right-hander from the Dominican introduced himself by saying “Sam Deduno and I have a crazy fastball.” Not crazy in the sense of a Aroldis Chapman 100 mile per hour fastball which is by you before you even get your feet set in the batter’s box, mind you. More like Nuke LaLoosh-fastball-off-the-mascot crazy. TexasLeaguers.com’s strike zone graph of Deduno’s fastball shows how this pitch is more like a shotgun blast than a precision sniper rifle: His breaking stuff is without doubt his best pitch and he leans heavily on it. Overall, opponents are hitting just .176 off of his curve and nearly 40% of his match-ups have ended in a strike out when throwing his curve for the last pitch of the at bat. With a sharp, quick bend, Deduno has gotten plenty of out-of-zone chases and missed a good amount of bats – just ask the Indians’ Johnny Damon how good that curve is after he struck out on one that hit the dirt almost five feet shy of the plate. Despite the impressive rate, over time opponents will likely stop chasing after the curve if he is unable to locate his fastball consistently. So far, Deduno has walked 16 batters in his 23 innings, which is a lot of baserunners and a lot of extra pitches. He has averted dangers by keeping those baserunners from scoring by stranding 85% of them - a rate that is well above average and is ripe for regression. When asked about the possibility of being “effectively wild” has helped the pitcher limit the Indians to one run on just two hits Saturday night, Twins pitching coach Rick Anderson joked “Ask Mauer, he says it’s like catching R.A. Dickey.” Sure, just like Dickey – give or take nearly 20 miles an hour of velocity between his knuckleball and Deduno’s fastball at 93. Because of the movement, Pitch F/X data suggests that he has two fastballs – a four-seamer and a cutter –but catcher Joe Mauer said that isn’t the case. It’s the same fastball claims the Twins backstop, who described the pitch as “unpredictable.” So how did Deduno’s battery mate attempt to corral the erratic heat? “With him I kind of just sit in the middle and tell him to aim down. Some will cut, some will sink. If it’s tough to catch, it’s probably hard to hit.” The Twins say they have seen improvements in the command of his fastball over the course of his four starts. Heading into his start against Cleveland, Deduno’s “four-seam fastball” (as categorized by Pitch F/X) was located in the strike zone less than 50% of the time. Following the seven inning performance, that rate is now above that mark at 50.3% indicating that he is making some progress. Again, while Mauer says there is no difference in his fastball types, Pitch F/X categorizes the one that cuts as a “cutter”. This version of his fastball was only thrown in the zone 39.3% of the time, a rate well below average and a sign that he still has work to do. The incremental improvement in his fastball comes as a result of added work with Anderson. Between starts, Deduno throws not one but two bullpen sessions. One of which, says Anderson, is to focus strictly on the fastball. In addition to getting a feel for the command of the pitch, Anderson also tries to keep in on his line and smooth out some of his mechanics. Although he may have some work to do harnessing his “cutter” version of his fastball, the progress - if measured in his seven inning, two-hit outing against Cleveland - has been encouraging so far.
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Last season, the switch-hitting Alexi Casilla had produced at a very good rate against right-handed pitching. In 247 plate appearances in the left-handed batter’s box, he hit .274/.350/.400 – not too shabby for a middle infielder. This was a significant improvement for someone who had hit .228/.299/.320 from the left-side over the two previous seasons (2009 and 2010) in 314 plate appearances. Most analysts would likely dismiss his 2011 breakout as a statistical glitch of the effects of a small sample galaxy in comparison to his vast universe of career suck-i-tude. Meanwhile, before this season started I presented the argument that Casilla, at the ripe baseball age of 27, was finally ready to breakout. Based upon his mechanical changes he made in 2011 and his impressive winter ball performance which yielded some very good numbers, I was optimistic that Casilla would more than earn his $1.4 million payday and pick up where he left off in July of 2011. Of course, rather than being motivated to prove my thesis correct, Casilla continued to do his best Luis Rivas impersonation. After posting a career-best 750 OPS against right-handed pitching in 2011, Casilla has struggled to even reach 500 mark (currently at 475 OPS). In fact, his .192 average against right-handers is the fourth-lowest in the American League and the lowest among those with the platoon advantage. Once again, although it may be easy to simplify his performance to regression, Casilla’s offensive downturn has more to do with his mechanics and timing. The first clip is a swing from June 2011 that exemplifies his approach from May through July of 2011. Watch his lower half and witness a fluid and unison leg lift, a front toe tap that comes after the pitcher releases the ball and a noticeably violent lower-half weight transfer: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Casilla_FV_May2011.gif Casilla implemented these mechanics from May onward of last season and experienced terrific results. This gives his swing pop, instead of the slap-hitting Casilla we became accustom to seeing over the majority of his career. Compare that swing to his pre-May 2011 approach: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Casilla_FV_April2011v3.gif Notice that his stride is completed prior to the pitcher’s release of the ball (in the first version, he started his stride mid-pitch), leaving him flat-footed and simply shifting his weight from back to front and using more of his upper body in his swing. Casilla’s current mechanics are almost identical to those he used before his hot streak in 2011. Note the foot plant well before the pitcher’s release and muted weight shift: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Casilla_FV_2012.gif There is no clear reason as to why Casilla abandoned the method which proved the most fruitful for one that is quickly expediting his career out of professional baseball. Perhaps it is that his sporadic time between starts has thrown off his timing. Maybe it is something that the coaching staff has encouraged him to revert back to the old approach. Whatever the rationale behind it, it would seem to make more sense to attempt to revisit video of his swing from last year and attempt to resurrect his mechanics from that stretch of baseball.
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Minnesota Twins' Alexi Casilla not in the swing of things
Parker Hageman posted a blog entry in Over the Baggy
Last season, the switch-hitting Alexi Casilla had produced at a very good rate against right-handed pitching. In 247 plate appearances in the left-handed batter’s box, he hit .274/.350/.400 – not too shabby for a middle infielder. This was a significant improvement for someone who had hit .228/.299/.320 from the left-side over the two previous seasons (2009 and 2010) in 314 plate appearances. Most analysts would likely dismiss his 2011 breakout as a statistical glitch of the effects of a small sample galaxy in comparison to his vast universe of career suck-i-tude. Meanwhile, before this season started I presented the argument that Casilla, at the ripe baseball age of 27, was finally ready to breakout. Based upon his mechanical changes he made in 2011 and his impressive winter ball performance which yielded some very good numbers, I was optimistic that Casilla would more than earn his $1.4 million payday and pick up where he left off in July of 2011. Of course, rather than being motivated to prove my thesis correct, Casilla continued to do his best Luis Rivas impersonation. After posting a career-best 750 OPS against right-handed pitching in 2011, Casilla has struggled to even reach 500 mark (currently at 475 OPS). In fact, his .192 average against right-handers is the fourth-lowest in the American League and the lowest among those with the platoon advantage. Once again, although it may be easy to simplify his performance to regression, Casilla’s offensive downturn has more to do with his mechanics and timing. The first clip is a swing from June 2011 that exemplifies his approach from May through July of 2011. Watch his lower half and witness a fluid and unison leg lift, a front toe tap that comes after the pitcher releases the ball and a noticeably violent lower-half weight transfer: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Casilla_FV_May2011.gif Casilla implemented these mechanics from May onward of last season and experienced terrific results. This gives his swing pop, instead of the slap-hitting Casilla we became accustom to seeing over the majority of his career. Compare that swing to his pre-May 2011 approach: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Casilla_FV_April2011v3.gif Notice that his stride is completed prior to the pitcher’s release of the ball (in the first version, he started his stride mid-pitch), leaving him flat-footed and simply shifting his weight from back to front and using more of his upper body in his swing. Casilla’s current mechanics are almost identical to those he used before his hot streak in 2011. Note the foot plant well before the pitcher’s release and muted weight shift: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Casilla_FV_2012.gif There is no clear reason as to why Casilla abandoned the method which proved the most fruitful for one that is quickly expediting his career out of professional baseball. Perhaps it is that his sporadic time between starts has thrown off his timing. Maybe it is something that the coaching staff has encouraged him to revert back to the old approach. Whatever the rationale behind it, it would seem to make more sense to attempt to revisit video of his swing from last year and attempt to resurrect his mechanics from that stretch of baseball. -
Minnesota Twins' Alexi Casilla not in the swing of things
Parker Hageman commented on Parker Hageman's blog entry in Over the Baggy
Last season, the switch-hitting Alexi Casilla had produced at a very good rate against right-handed pitching. In 247 plate appearances in the left-handed batter’s box, he hit .274/.350/.400 – not too shabby for a middle infielder. This was a significant improvement for someone who had hit .228/.299/.320 from the left-side over the two previous seasons (2009 and 2010) in 314 plate appearances. Most analysts would likely dismiss his 2011 breakout as a statistical glitch of the effects of a small sample galaxy in comparison to his vast universe of career suck-i-tude. Meanwhile, before this season started I presented the argument that Casilla, at the ripe baseball age of 27, was finally ready to breakout. Based upon his mechanical changes he made in 2011 and his impressive winter ball performance which yielded some very good numbers, I was optimistic that Casilla would more than earn his $1.4 million payday and pick up where he left off in July of 2011. Of course, rather than being motivated to prove my thesis correct, Casilla continued to do his best Luis Rivas impersonation. After posting a career-best 750 OPS against right-handed pitching in 2011, Casilla has struggled to even reach 500 mark (currently at 475 OPS). In fact, his .192 average against right-handers is the fourth-lowest in the American League and the lowest among those with the platoon advantage. Once again, although it may be easy to simplify his performance to regression, Casilla’s offensive downturn has more to do with his mechanics and timing. The first clip is a swing from June 2011 that exemplifies his approach from May through July of 2011. Watch his lower half and witness a fluid and unison leg lift, a front toe tap that comes after the pitcher releases the ball and a noticeably violent lower-half weight transfer: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Casilla_FV_May2011.gif Casilla implemented these mechanics from May onward of last season and experienced terrific results. This gives his swing pop, instead of the slap-hitting Casilla we became accustom to seeing over the majority of his career. Compare that swing to his pre-May 2011 approach: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Casilla_FV_April2011v3.gif Notice that his stride is completed prior to the pitcher’s release of the ball (in the first version, he started his stride mid-pitch), leaving him flat-footed and simply shifting his weight from back to front and using more of his upper body in his swing. Casilla’s current mechanics are almost identical to those he used before his hot streak in 2011. Note the foot plant well before the pitcher’s release and muted weight shift: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Casilla_FV_2012.gif There is no clear reason as to why Casilla abandoned the method which proved the most fruitful for one that is quickly expediting his career out of professional baseball. Perhaps it is that his sporadic time between starts has thrown off his timing. Maybe it is something that the coaching staff has encouraged him to revert back to the old approach. Whatever the rationale behind it, it would seem to make more sense to attempt to revisit video of his swing from last year and attempt to resurrect his mechanics from that stretch of baseball. -
So the Kansas City Royals made one of the most lopsided trades when the acquired Jonathan Sanchez for Melky Cabrera since the natives swapped Manhattan Island to the Dutch for about 25 bucks. After a rebound season in KC, Cabrera is fully rejuvenated in the Bay Area, hitting .353/.391/.514 with 8 home runs for the Giants. Meanwhile, in 12 starts, Sanchez completely soiled the bed so badly that the Royals were recently forced to designate him for assignment. There was plenty of reason for the Royals to take a chance on the 29-year-old left-hander. According to his expected fielding independent figures, his 4.10 mark from 2008 to 2011 tied him with rotation-mate Matt Cain and put him ahead of such higher priced free agents as Edwin Jackson. So for the nominal sum of $5.6 million, the Royals received a veteran starter for Cabrera who, like Sanchez, was also in his final year of arbitration. On paper it made all the sense in the world. Of course, Sanchez’s glaring weakness, command, reared its ugly head once he moved to the American League. Considering his walk rate of 12.2% was the highest among those with a minimum of 500 innings pitched from 2008 to 2011, this should not come as a complete surprise. While his control waned in 2011 with San Francisco, the wheels fell completely off in 2012. Last year, Sanchez threw fewer pitches in the strike zone (45%) but was able to get opponents to chase after stuff off the plate (27%) and miss on those pitches at a decent rate (59%). This year, however, he threw the same amount of pitches in the zone (45%) but was unable to entice any takers on the out of zone ones (21% - the lowest among qualified starters in 2012) and those who did, hit the ball a high amount (69%). Ergo, Sanchez’s swinging strike rate declined from the above average 10% to the below average 7% in 2012. Frustrated with his tendency to hand out free passes carte blanche, the Royals made the decision to waive him. This gives teams the option to claim him then either work out a deal with Kansas City for a potential trade or assume the remainder of his $5.6 million prorated the rest of the year. Of course, if everyone passes – and because of the results of his last four starts (17 IP, 27 hits, 23 earned runs and a 11/16 K/BB ratio), it is entirely possible – anyone could pick him up for an audition at the league minimum. If that scenario plays out, should the Twins consider grabbing the left-hander? The Twins have done great work turning around their own control-deficient lefty in Francisco Liriano. Like Sanchez, Liriano struggled against his mechanics which led to a high walk rate as well (10% from 2008 to 2011). This current season was one of Liriano’s worst but, in season, the team saw him re-establish his control and post a 67-to-25 strikeouts-to-walks ratio in 57.1 innings. The stage is set for the organization to trade Liriano. Despite his stellar performance as of late, his impending free agency and high cost of retaining him (over $12 million for 2013), the heightened interest in him by other teams only stands to benefit the Twins and the front office is bound to pounce on that. Still, Liriano’s departure would leave Minnesota with yet another hole to fill within the rotation – now and in the future. That’s where Sanchez would come in. If he’s available for the minimum – similar to the way the Padres nabbed Jason Marquis after the Twins kicked him to the curb – the Twins may have the opportunity to tinker with Sanchez for a handful of starts and see if they can redirect him back to his form he showed with the Giants. After all, from 2008 to 2011 Sanchez had one of the best swing-and-miss rates among left-handers (10.4%) leading to the second-best strikeout rate among southpaws (24%). And, at 29, he’s still in what should be the prime of his career. If his decline is not injury-related, he could be resurrected with the proper instruction. Sanchez’s mechanics, as mentioned above, have been a bit chaotic at times. Occasionally he’ll wrap his leg during his wind-up and other times he’ll fail to pick up his target before throwing. These are certainly imperfections that teams would probably like to correct. However, Sanchez does not seem to be receptive to the suggestions. When pressed by the Royals’ media on the possible of adjusting his mechanics, Sanchez balked. “I don’t want to change anything,” he told reporters at the end of June, “If I try to change things, I’ll end up a real mess. I just have to trust that it will work out.” That’s not the talk of someone entirely open to doing everything possible to turn things around. Then again, being released might be just that type of wake up call to make a pitcher amiable to making adjustments. If the Twins grab him, he may wind up being the stubborn type who is not willing to listen or try new methods, even if that means a one-way ticket out of baseball. The Twins have 10 days to contemplate and examine whether or not Sanchez is repairable (perhaps less if they want to grab him on waivers and work out a trade). Based on his past track record, there is certainly a reason to spend the extra time on this decision. If he proves teachable and makes progress, consider bringing him back for one of the vacancies for 2013. If not, send him packing.

