Parker Hageman

Heading into the 2012 season, the Twins had plenty of question marks throughout the lineup. Among those unanswered questions was center fielder Denard Span. The concern was Span, like Justin Morneau to a less extent, would be unable to play consistently throughout the season at a high level. After all, Span’s concussion in the middle of the 2011 season sidelined him for an extended period of time and, when he returned for 14 games in August and September, he provided minimal production, going 7-for-53 (.132) with 10 strikeouts to three walks. Nevertheless, the Twins’ leadoff hitter has had a fast start to the season, setting the tables like never before. In addition to an impressive batting average (.333) and a decent amount of extra base hits (7), he’s reaching base at a very good .373 clip which gives the heart of the order someone to attempt to drive home. What makes Span such a valuable asset at the top of the Twins’ order is his outstanding plate discipline. For starters, he rarely expands the strike zone, instead shows off an amazing amount of restraint. According to Fangraphs.com’s Plate Discipline statistics, Span has chased after just 19.6% of all out-of-zone pitches which is well below the 28.9% league average. By not offering at out-of-zone pitches, Span is confident that he is putting mostly in-zone pitches into play. These types of choice pitches are often within a hitter’s swing zone and result in more square contact. Because of this, it is not surprising to see that Span has maintained his second highest line drive output (23%) since his first season with the Twins. What’s more is that his 10% fly ball rate is the lowest in baseball at this juncture and he has yet to hit an infield fly ball. These are all signs of a hitter who is seeing the ball extremely well and putting the ball into play extremely well. Part of what is driving his success this year is his ability to go the other way rather than pulling the ball. There’s no question that he is a rare offensive specimen is his quick wrists and patience. He can wait until the pitch is almost in the catcher’s mitt only to flick his wrists and send a screaming line drive somewhere on the left side of the field. However, when Span becomes too pull happy, he winds up turning over those quick wrists and grounding out (he has a 73% ground ball rate when pulling the ball) a trait we saw far too often in his 2010 campaign. However, there are signs that Span, now a veteran with four major league seasons under his belt, is adapting and making changes to his approach for the better. NOTE: For whatever reason, TwinsDaily.com does not seem to have .gif capabilities. Please visit the post at the Star Tribune's TwinsCentric page to see the video clips. Compare his 2011 approach to the two clips below from 2012. In 2011, although he is going to opposite field with the pitch, he is doing so more with his upper body rather than with his legs and hips: [ATTACH=CONFIG]763[/ATTACH]Meanwhile, in 2012, watch his back leg as he draws it back towards the first base side, directing his hips towards the left side of the field: [ATTACH=CONFIG]764[/ATTACH] [ATTACH=CONFIG]765[/ATTACH] Pitchers have stared the 2012 season by peppering the outer half of the zone to Span. To his credit, he has succeeded by giving what they pitch him and driving the ball towards left. This is why 39% of the balls he puts into play wind up headed towards the opposite field, well above his career rate of 28%. Soon enough, however, teams will likely adjust their approach to Span and attempt to bust him inside more often in attempts to keep him from focusing on going away with every pitch. The Royals, while their pitching staff is struggling worse than the Twins, have moved towards using video scouting more often than in-person scouting. If the Royals advanced video scouts have picked up on this, they may implement a game plan this weekend that will result in Span being pitched inside more frequently. Watch for Span to continue to go away with pitches out over the plate but keep in mind Kansas City will likely attempt to shut him down by busting him inside.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]734[/ATTACH]After punishing spring training pitchers and promoting himself this offseason, Danny Valencia’s output in the regular season has left something to be desired. Coming off a down year in 2011 and made promises of rebounding and rededicating himself for this season. Rather than coming out the gates to a hot start, he now finds himself on the hot seat poised to lose starts. What has gone wrong for the Twins third baseman? In 2011, I attributed his sudden decline to a bit of the “sophomore slump monster” – one in which his line drive rate remained relatively consistent with his previous season but the amount of hits that found grass declined significantly. In 2010, he held a solid .771 batting average on his line drives. This past season his batting average on liners dropped to .651, well below the league average. The theory was, if he produced line drives at the near 20% rate he had over the past two seasons, this would likely equal out for the better. Unfortunately, both Valencia’s plate discipline and his wellspring of ropes have substantially decline so far in 2012. Addressing the latter first, Valencia has traded the once prevalent liners for a bunch of bounding grounders and harmless infield pop-ups. To date, his line drive rate has checked in slightly below the 14% mark while his ground ball rate has ballooned to 52%. However, when he does get underneath the ball, he has provided little damage, knocking 33% of his fly balls to infielders. Meanwhile, Valencia’s patience at the plate is about as thin as a fungo bat. In addition to swinging at a high clip this season, he’s chasing a heavy volume of pitches outside of the strike zone. According to Fangraphs.com’s plate discipline numbers, he has offered at 42% of all out-of-zone pitches, well above the league’s 29% norm. With that lack of zone discipline, it is clear why he has only coaxed one walk compared to 17 strikeouts. Between his contact and his plate discipline, the outcome for him has been laughably bad: a .220/.230/.339 hitting line that has incited calls from fans to see more Sean Burroughs, who has not seen regular playing time since 2005, on the field. How did it get so bad for Valencia? The Twins coaching staff attempted to correct a hitch this offseason, which they said added a longer loop to his swing, as well as encourage his to stop fixating on pulling the ball and hoping that it would improve his .246 batting average in 2011. This spring 1500ESPN.com’s Phil Mackey spoke with Valencia who claimed that one of his goals this year was to use the entire field better. And, so far, Valencia is failing at that objective. Thus far in 2012, heading into Tuesday night’s game, Valencia had put 44 balls into play and has taken seven of those to the opposite field. While the 16% opposite field rate isn’t disappointing in itself (after all, in his solid 2010 season, he went oppo just 19% of the time), it is that pitchers have consistently baited the Twins third baseman into swinging at pitches on the outer-half of the strike zone and yet he has pulled the ball at a high margin (52%). Compare these two swing charts. In his first stint at the major league level (on the left), the Valencia scouting report was not completely disseminated and, as such, he received a high portion of inside and middle of the zone type pitches. In 2012 (on the right), the word has spread throughout the league and opponents know that Valencia is susceptible when being pitched away – specifically from right-handed pitchers. [ATTACH=CONFIG]733[/ATTACH] (from TexasLeaguers.com) This season, with pitchers attacking the outside portion of the plate, Valencia has maintained a questionable aggressive approach (swinging at a career-high 47% clip) and has also kept his pull-happy tendencies in spite of opponents begging him to go with the pitch. Because he is swinging at so many pitches on the outer-half of the plate while trying to pull them, it is easy to see why his groundball rate has swelled so quickly. Valencia has demonstrated that he can be a high average, moderate power hitter in the minors and in segments of his major league career. What is needed is a re-calibration of the strike zone. Perhaps his early slump has caused him to press harder at the plate, swing more frequently with disregard for location, and forget the main focus of the off-season – to hit the ball to all fields. Let’s remember, it is early in the season and there is plenty of time to turn it all around. Still, with his continued insistence on pulling almost every pitch, frustration is mounting from the manager and Valencia’s playing time is quite possibly hanging by a very thin thread at this juncture.

On Friday night’s Fox Sports North broadcast of the Twins game, Dick and Bert talked about some things the coaching staff had relayed to them about Francisco Liriano and his upcoming start. Pitching coach Rick Anderson said that the key to getting Liriano back to his spring training form in which he was producing a lot of strikeouts and keeping from walking hitters was to ease up on throwing his two-seamed fastball so much. Interestingly enough, the Twins insistence a year ago for Liriano to throw more two-seamers, a pitch whose action runs away from right-handed hitters, in order to induce more contact and throw fewer pitches in each start caused a stir among analysts. Now, unable to command this pitch, the Twins are requesting that he ditch it and opt to use the straighter four-seam fastball. Anderson told reporters that: "After awhile I said, 'What did you do in spring?' He said, 'I threw a lot more four-seam fastballs; now I'm throwing too many two-seamers and giving the hitter too much credit.' I said, 'How did you do in spring? That was pretty good. Let's get back to it.' " [ATTACH=CONFIG]699[/ATTACH] Liriano has demonstrated very little in terms of consistency when throwing his two-seamer this year. It has been located up in the zone far too much, resulting in fly balls instead of the coveted ground balls that he used to induce. According to Pitch F/X, he has not thrown too many four-seamers but the ones he had tossed are also up in the zone. Part of this effect goes back to the mechanical issue that I described earlier this week where he is flying open with his lower half which makes commanding his pitches that much more difficult. Liriano’s velocity was also lacking but has been increasing over the course of his three starts. In his first game he was averaging just 90.8 on the heater but that grew to 91.2 in his start versus the Angels. In his most recent outing at Yankee Stadium, his velocity was up to 93.2 (perhaps in attempts to impress one of the organizations that showed interest in him). If he can maintain that 93-mph average and hit his spots, he is certainly capable of rebounding this year. With patience running thin on Liriano’s lack of production, the Twins are trying to see if they can get him to a point where mentally he feels more comfortable. And if he feels more comfortable throwing his four-seamer, this may translate into him returning to a more relaxed and proper motion which could lead to better pitching. Liriano gets the call today against the Rays so keep an eye out for the straighter version of his fastball.

After the split series in New York - one in which the bullpen absorbed 70% of the innings in four games - the Minnesota Twins relievers head to Tampa feeling more taxed than the Dutch population. (Yeah, that’s right: tax humor.) On Thursday, Anthony Swarzak, a rotation fill-in who is lobbying for a more permanent position, coaxed Ron Gardenhire out of the dugout once again prematurely, ending his night without getting out of the third inning. Swarzak, in his previous start, had kept the mighty Rangers lineup at bay for seven innings, allowing just four runs to a team that has averaged 5.75 runs per game. However, his game plan was exposed during the Rangers’ second trip through the order as they sat on what had become a predictable first-pitch fastball. In fact, of the first 14 Texas hitters Swarzak threw 12 fastball and just two non-fastballs. When the word got out in the visitor’s dugout, one of the most potent lineups was swinging out of their shoes at the first offering. To his credit Swarzak made some adjustments and to the final 16 hitters he faced on the night, he threw 14 non-fastballs and just two fastballs to start them off. A one-time Baseball America Top 100 prospect (okay, he was number 100 in 2006, but still…), Swarzak showed decent command of his secondary pitches, hammering a curveball down on right-handers and fading a change-up to lefties. This combination seemingly kept the Rangers as balanced as a two-legged table. So, heading into his third start of the year and facing a lineup just as frightening in the Yankees (5.17 runs per game), Swarzak had to ensure that he did not fall into the same pratfalls as he did the Rangers lineup – particularly because of the unforgiving corner outfield fences – and apply his off-speed offerings liberally throughout the night. Unfortunately, while the Yankees did not hone in on his first-pitch fastballs (which he threw to 12 of 17 hitters) they did find themselves in favorable counts when he was unable to either throw his secondary stuff for strikes or entice hitters to expand the zone: In the first, he was unable to get Curtis Granderson to swing at any of the two-strike changeups and was forced to throw two consecutive 3-2 fastballs – one of which Granderson popped up over the slow-pitch softball fence. Several batters later, Swarzak started Mark Teixiera off with a change for a ball and fed the big first baseman a fastball out over the plate on a predictable fastball count, only to watch it disappear in center. In the second, Swarzak started Granderson out with two fastballs, missed with a changeup and then, after falling behind 3-0, came back with two more fastballs (the second of which became a souvenir). Against Texas he managed to locate his secondary stuff for strikes 68% of the time while in New York, that rate dropped to 58% as he struggled with his changeup to lefties. Had Swarzak demonstrated better command over his changeup last night, he may have been able to avoid the punishment dished out by Granderson and Teixeira. As you can see from his Pitch F/X game chart, Swarzak was not unable to keep his curveball (pink squares) down in the zone consistently nor was he able to keep his changeup (yellow squares) down and away from left-handed bats: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Swarzak_NY.png http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Swarzak_TEX.png Without being able to keep hitters off of his fastball, Swarzak stands to be subjected to heavy damage. Meanwhile, tonight’s starter is Swarzak’s direct competition for the last spot in the rotation, Liam Hendriks. Like Swarzak, Hendriks kept the Rangers lineup subdued in his last start, working six innings while allowing just one run – a home run to Mike Napoli. And, also like Swarzak, Hendriks does not have overpowering stuff but rather leans on changing speeds and hitting spots in order to succeed. Where the two differ is that Hendriks had a much higher tendency of “pitching backwards”, that is throwing off-speed stuff in fastball counts. That and his secondary pitches are significantly better. Hendriks, who tops out around 91-mph, can supplement his fastball with a near 20-mile-an-hour difference on his curveball which he throws at 73-mph on average. This certainly kept Rangers hitters from focusing too much on the fastball while having to respect the deuce. Additionally, while having to monitor the zone for that slow break, his fastball undoubtedly appears much quicker because of the differential. Lastly, because he throws across his body (his landing foot is towards the third base line rather than home plate) he has a unique release point that comes at an irregular angle and provides added deception for the Australian hurler. Although Swarzak has pitched well in two of three starts and is a serviceable emergency starter, of the two, Hendriks has the higher upside and should remain in the rotation if or when the decision needs to be made.

After the split series in New York - one in which the bullpen absorbed 70% of the innings in four games - the Minnesota Twins relievers head to Tampa feeling more taxed than the Dutch population. (Yeah, that’s right: tax humor.) On Thursday, Anthony Swarzak, a rotation fill-in who is lobbying for a more permanent position, coaxed Ron Gardenhire out of the dugout once again prematurely, ending his night without getting out of the third inning. Swarzak, in his previous start, had kept the mighty Rangers lineup at bay for seven innings, allowing just four runs to a team that has averaged 5.75 runs per game. However, his game plan was exposed during the Rangers’ second trip through the order as they sat on what had become a predictable first-pitch fastball. In fact, of the first 14 Texas hitters Swarzak threw 12 fastball and just two non-fastballs. When the word got out in the visitor’s dugout, one of the most potent lineups was swinging out of their shoes at the first offering. To his credit Swarzak made some adjustments and to the final 16 hitters he faced on the night, he threw 14 non-fastballs and just two fastballs to start them off. A one-time Baseball America Top 100 prospect (okay, he was number 100 in 2006, but still…), Swarzak showed decent command of his secondary pitches, hammering a curveball down on right-handers and fading a change-up to lefties. This combination seemingly kept the Rangers as balanced as a two-legged table. So, heading into his third start of the year and facing a lineup just as frightening in the Yankees (5.17 runs per game), Swarzak had to ensure that he did not fall into the same pratfalls as he did the Rangers lineup – particularly because of the unforgiving corner outfield fences – and apply his off-speed offerings liberally throughout the night. Unfortunately, while the Yankees did not hone in on his first-pitch fastballs (which he threw to 12 of 17 hitters) they did find themselves in favorable counts when he was unable to either throw his secondary stuff for strikes or entice hitters to expand the zone: In the first, he was unable to get Curtis Granderson to swing at any of the two-strike changeups and was forced to throw two consecutive 3-2 fastballs – one of which Granderson popped up over the slow-pitch softball fence. Several batters later, Swarzak started Mark Teixiera off with a change for a ball and fed the big first baseman a fastball out over the plate on a predictable fastball count, only to watch it disappear in center. In the second, Swarzak started Granderson out with two fastballs, missed with a changeup and then, after falling behind 3-0, came back with two more fastballs (the second of which became a souvenir). Against Texas he managed to locate his secondary stuff for strikes 68% of the time while in New York, that rate dropped to 58% as he struggled with his changeup to lefties. Had Swarzak demonstrated better command over his changeup last night, he may have been able to avoid the punishment dished out by Granderson and Teixeira. As you can see from his Pitch F/X game chart, Swarzak was not unable to keep his curveball (pink squares) down in the zone consistently nor was he able to keep his changeup (yellow squares) down and away from left-handed bats: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Swarzak_NY.png http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Swarzak_TEX.png Without being able to keep hitters off of his fastball, Swarzak stands to be subjected to heavy damage. Meanwhile, tonight’s starter is Swarzak’s direct competition for the last spot in the rotation, Liam Hendriks. Like Swarzak, Hendriks kept the Rangers lineup subdued in his last start, working six innings while allowing just one run – a home run to Mike Napoli. And, also like Swarzak, Hendriks does not have overpowering stuff but rather leans on changing speeds and hitting spots in order to succeed. Where the two differ is that Hendriks had a much higher tendency of “pitching backwards”, that is throwing off-speed stuff in fastball counts. That and his secondary pitches are significantly better. Hendriks, who tops out around 91-mph, can supplement his fastball with a near 20-mile-an-hour difference on his curveball which he throws at 73-mph on average. This certainly kept Rangers hitters from focusing too much on the fastball while having to respect the deuce. Additionally, while having to monitor the zone for that slow break, his fastball undoubtedly appears much quicker because of the differential. Lastly, because he throws across his body (his landing foot is towards the third base line rather than home plate) he has a unique release point that comes at an irregular angle and provides added deception for the Australian hurler. Although Swarzak has pitched well in two of three starts and is a serviceable emergency starter, of the two, Hendriks has the higher upside and should remain in the rotation if or when the decision needs to be made.

Following a spring in which he struck out 33 and walked just five opponents, for three straight starts Francisco Liriano has failed to demonstrate much command over the strike zone. After posting a 49.2% first-pitch strike rate in 2011, the worst mark in baseball, the Twins left-handers has come out of the gate attempting to best that by throwing a first-pitch strike just 42.9% of the time. Meanwhile, as the rest of the league has peppered the strike zone with bullets 49% of the time overall, Liriano has been hitting the zone in just 41% of his pitches. This has resulted in nine walks in 11.1 innings pitch or, to look at it another way, he’s walked 14.2% of all the batters he has faced. And it is not as if he is just missing by a hair either. Watching him work, Liriano frequently misses his catcher’s target by a country mile. Last night Twins catcher Ryan Doumit would ask for a pitch slightly off Broadway only to receive a fastball that was launched into Hoboken. After the game, Liriano told reports that “Nothing is bothering me. I’m 100 percent healthy. I’m just missing my spots and pitching behind the count and you get hurt, especially with hitters like that.” In his blog last night, Lavelle Neal suggested that part of the reason he is having problems is that Liriano “lacks confidence” right now. While lack of confidence may be a byproduct of pitching poorly, Liriano is clearly struggling mechanically. Take a look at some images from Liriano’s very good 2010 season – one in which he worked ahead of hitters (62% first-pitch strike) and walked few (7.2% walk rate). Below we see Liriano in a July 16, 2010 start against the White Sox. Look at his front leg at the point of release. Notice that his weight is complete above his front leg which is driving towards the plate: [ATTACH=CONFIG]655[/ATTACH] Here is another example of that from a start on June 11 of that year. Once again, his lower half is well stabilized and he is driving towards the plate at his release point: [ATTACH=CONFIG]656[/ATTACH] This year, however, rather than maintaining good balance over his front leg, he has been driving his weight off of the driveline and towards the third base side of the field. The image below is from his April 12, 2012 start against the Angels. Notice now that instead of being directly over that front leg, his weight – particularly his front hip – is pulling towards his glove side at his release point: [ATTACH=CONFIG]657[/ATTACH] Here is another example: [ATTACH=CONFIG]654[/ATTACH] In his first start of the year in Baltimore, we see the same thing: when he plants, his weight is already shirting towards his glove side: [ATTACH=CONFIG]658[/ATTACH] What this does is rather than generate his momentum towards home plate he is carrying off of the driveline and thus losing the ability to command his pitches. It is part of the reason why his fastball so often jumps up and away into the left-handed batter’s box. Because the center field cameras at Yankee Stadium are so off-kilter, it is nearly impossible to grab a shot that you can see where his balance point is driving towards but I would surmise that his “flying open” likely played a significant role in last night’s start as well. Also, it is hard to distinguish is Liriano exhibiting this fall off during the spring. The one game that was capture on camera was at the Yankees’ spring training complex which also has the same off-set camera angle from center field and provides little context and depth. Either way, I would suspect (hope) that this is something the Twins and Rick Anderson are diligently trying to get him to correct and reminding him before, during and after each start. Part of this could just be that Liriano, in efforts to make perfect pitches in his free agent season, is getting too amped up and overthrowing. A pitching coach can only remind a pitcher so many times to make adjustments before the pitcher must simply relax and listen. With three poor starts under his belt and the team running low on starting options, Liriano needs to return to his 2010 form quickly.

The 7-3 victory over the New York Yankees on Monday night was one that helped knock the collective monkey off of their backs for the Minnesota Twins. After all, Yankee Stadium – be it the original or this new theme park – has long given the Twins fits. Individually, too, Twins players shrugged off the load that had been weighing them down to lead to the third win of the season. Carl Pavano, who became a pariah in the five boroughs after his disabled tenure with the Yankees, proved that he’s advanced beyond simply being a punch line. Sure, he allowed two back-to-back home runs to start the game and quickly coughed up the 2-0 lead the Twins provided him, yet he remained calm and hit his spots – specifically that spot two-and-a-half inches off of the plate that umpire Gerry Davis was giving him. He worked in a devastating change-up that he buried on his opponents, getting them to miss on seven of the 26 he threw. After a series against Texas in which he went 1-for-12 with five strikeouts, people were starting to get restless about Justin Morneau’s recovery. Offensively, he looked overmatched and, as Nick Nelson examined, his plate discipline numbers were the truly worrisome part. A year ago, one of Morneau’s biggest problems was pulling open off the pitch and leaving the outer half of the plate wide open for opposing pitchers. Nevertheless, positioned at first base tonight, Morneau appeared much more dialed in following his first at bat. In his third trip to the plate, Morneau timed a Freddy Garcia “fastball” perfectly and launched a shot into the Yankees’ bullpen area. After the game, Morneau told FSN’s Robby Incmikoski that following his first plate appearance of the night, he told himself to consciously wait back. Coming into Monday night’s game, Joe Mauer was holding a ground ball rate over 60%. That tape measure shot he sent into the stands against the Angels seemed like a distance memory as the Rangers kept the Twins catcher from doing much elevating. He finished the last series going 2-for-10 while grounding into two double plays – bringing his season total of twin killings to MLB-leading four. Answering some of his critics, Mauer smacked a double to left in the first and followed that up with a double to right in the fifth inning. Danny Valencia, who had been chastised by his manager in 2011 for failing to take the ball the other way, came up in the eighth inning with the Twins holding a decent but never comfortable two-run lead in the Bronx. In addition to becoming too pull happy a year ago, Valencia’s weakness against right-handed pitching was also exposed. On the first pitch from the right-handed reliever Corey Wade – a slider running away from the zone, no less – Valencia stayed back and laced the ball into the right-center field gap, scoring Ryan Doumit from first and gave the Twins some more breathing room. All in all, it was certainly a confidence building win for the Minnesota Twins and has set a good tone for the rest of the four game series in New York.

The 7-3 victory over the New York Yankees on Monday night was one that helped knock the collective monkey off of their backs for the Minnesota Twins. After all, Yankee Stadium – be it the original or this new theme park – has long given the Twins fits. Individually, too, Twins players shrugged off the load that had been weighing them down to lead to the third win of the season. Carl Pavano, who became a pariah in the five boroughs after his disabled tenure with the Yankees, proved that he’s advanced beyond simply being a punch line. Sure, he allowed two back-to-back home runs to start the game and quickly coughed up the 2-0 lead the Twins provided him, yet he remained calm and hit his spots – specifically that spot two-and-a-half inches off of the plate that umpire Gerry Davis was giving him. He worked in a devastating change-up that he buried on his opponents, getting them to miss on seven of the 26 he threw. After a series against Texas in which he went 1-for-12 with five strikeouts, people were starting to get restless about Justin Morneau’s recovery. Offensively, he looked overmatched and, as Nick Nelson examined, his plate discipline numbers were the truly worrisome part. A year ago, one of Morneau’s biggest problems was pulling open off the pitch and leaving the outer half of the plate wide open for opposing pitchers. Nevertheless, positioned at first base tonight, Morneau appeared much more dialed in following his first at bat. In his third trip to the plate, Morneau timed a Freddy Garcia “fastball” perfectly and launched a shot into the Yankees’ bullpen area. After the game, Morneau told FSN’s Robby Incmikoski that following his first plate appearance of the night, he told himself to consciously wait back. Coming into Monday night’s game, Joe Mauer was holding a ground ball rate over 60%. That tape measure shot he sent into the stands against the Angels seemed like a distance memory as the Rangers kept the Twins catcher from doing much elevating. He finished the last series going 2-for-10 while grounding into two double plays – bringing his season total of twin killings to MLB-leading four. Answering some of his critics, Mauer smacked a double to left in the first and followed that up with a double to right in the fifth inning. Danny Valencia, who had been chastised by his manager in 2011 for failing to take the ball the other way, came up in the eighth inning with the Twins holding a decent but never comfortable two-run lead in the Bronx. In addition to becoming too pull happy a year ago, Valencia’s weakness against right-handed pitching was also exposed. On the first pitch from the right-handed reliever Corey Wade – a slider running away from the zone, no less – Valencia stayed back and laced the ball into the right-center field gap, scoring Ryan Doumit from first and gave the Twins some more breathing room. All in all, it was certainly a confidence building win for the Minnesota Twins and has set a good tone for the rest of the four game series in New York.

Just two seasons into Target Field’s existence and already the ballpark’s environment had drawn as much consternation from hitters as an expanded strike zone or moving the mound ten feet closer to the plate. Departing Twins took shots at the venue as they left the team, suggesting that the way the field plays makes players alter their swings to avoid long fly outs to the gaps. Rather than continuing to jam square pegs into a round hole, the Twins made an offseason signing that is proving early on that if you select the right talent, Target Field can be porous. With a sampling of two seasons, the home run chart at Target Field showed that the easiest way to leave the field of play was to yank one down the left field line - and that’s where Josh Willingham comes in. Because of his high pull tendencies and Target Field’s favorable environment to right-handed pull hitters, this winter’s acquisition had all the signs that it could be successful. Just three games into the first homestand of the year, Willingham has reminded fans why the team named the third deck section of left field the “Home Run Porch” by pulverizing the Rawlings deep into the stands and narrowly missing a fourth by several feet on Monday. In concert with Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer, both of whom homered on Thursday, the Twins now have five home runs at home. That is downright a derby contest compared to last season in which fans had to wait until the twelfth home game of the season to be treated to the fifth Twins home run. Let’s take a closer look as to why Willingham has been such a solid power source. As I wrote back in December, what makes him such a dangerous hitter is that he “draws his power from a stiff front leg which helps with leverage and keeps his hands inside as his back arm stays close to his body at a little over a 90 degree angle – otherwise known as the “Power L” position. This combination, plus his natural strength, has led to a home run every 18.6 at bats since 2009.” Here is an example of this in his home run off of Jared Weaver on Wednesday night. What I failed to mention back then, is the explosive hip action he has when he uncorks. Take note of the stiff front leg and the way his trailing arm stays tucked in. Notice, also, that the point of impact is well out in front of his body resulting in him pulling the ball: [ATTACH=CONFIG]610[/ATTACH] Next is an almost identical position for his home run off of Kevin Jepsen. Observe the same front leg, arm tucked in and the impact made out in front of his body: [ATTACH=CONFIG]611[/ATTACH] Because of this approach, Willingham has had great success when being pitched middle-in: [ATTACH=CONFIG]612[/ATTACH]Due to his early season success, one has to believe that the Rangers advanced scouts are filing reports that say “PITCH HIM AWAY! AWAY! AWAY!” in big bold letters and underlined. After all, Texas can neutralize him in this weekend’s series by forcing him to use the large part of the park rather than directing the ball towards the porch in left. It is impossible to think that his pace will continue throughout the season, but pitchers do make mistakes – like Jepsen did when he tried to hit the outer-half the zone on Thursday only to have it stay over the middle – and Willingham appears to be a hitter who takes advantage of such mistakes. While this season still needs to play out, as of right now, it appears that the Twins front office has made one home run of a signing.

On Monday against the Angels, Nick Blackburn, despite taking the loss in a 5-1 contest, provided the team with some assurance that he may be able to outperform the lowly expectations that have been outlined for him based on his track record the last two years. What has been the most impressive about his 2012 debut was his ability to miss bats. After all, at an 89.9% rate over the past two seasons, he has allowed more contact than any other qualified starting pitcher. It has been like his pitches are heat-seeking bat finders. However, with a healed elbow along with some minor modifications to his mechanical approach, Blackburn has seemingly turned a corner. This spring, the previously highly mashable right-hander held opponents to a 73% contact rate, says 1500ESPN’s Phil Mackey, a huge difference from his career rate. That trend continued into the home opener as Blackburn managed to fend off bats, obtaining a swing-and-miss on 7.1% of the total offerings. What’s more is his fastball, previously a strong candidate to get annihilated, actually missed six bats out of the 30 thrown on the cold April afternoon. Now, that certainly is not Liriano-like but for someone who has spent the past two years at the 4% mark, this is a significant step in the right direction. Let’s take a peek at his changes and see what, if anything, this may have done to improve his game and if this output might continue. At the beginning of March, Pioneer Press columnist Tom Powers noted that Blackburn had made two noteworthy changes to his approach: (1) shifting over to the third base side of the rubber and (2) switching to a higher, over-the-top arm angle. The first change is very apparent. In the first image, you see that Blackburn has started on the first base side of the rubber. In the ensuing shot, he has moved his starting position to the third base side. By his account, this is now enabling him to pound his fastball on the inner-half of the zone better to right-handed opponents. [ATTACH=CONFIG]578[/ATTACH] [ATTACH=CONFIG]579[/ATTACH] The second change, his arm angle, did not seem to stick with him through spring camp. In his televised spring training start against the Yankees, Nick Blackburn was seemingly throwing from a more over-the-top type arm angle versus his standard three-quarters release that we have been accustom to. Contrary to what was relayed this spring, in his first start of the season, Blackburn was actually throwing at a lowered release point this season than he did the previous one. The top image (from 2011) shows a slightly more tilted (read: higher) release angle than the second image (2012): [ATTACH=CONFIG]580[/ATTACH] [ATTACH=CONFIG]581[/ATTACH] Furthermore, the Target Field pitch f/x camera system concurs that, in addition to having his release point shift over several inches towards the right-handed batter’s box, it has also dropped a few inches as well: [ATTACH=CONFIG]582[/ATTACH][ATTACH=CONFIG]583[/ATTACH] These changes have allowed Blackburn to hammer righties down and in, getting under their swing and avoiding the meaty part of the zone. According to Fangraphs.com’s heat maps chart, we see that on Monday (below), Blackburn pounded the inner-half of the plate with his two-seamer whereas the prior season (above), the majority of those pitchers were finishing out over the plate: [ATTACH=CONFIG]584[/ATTACH][ATTACH=CONFIG]585[/ATTACH] Essentially, his off-season alterations have led to more pitching arm side movement of his two-seamer which dropping significantly as well. It’s easy to see with this type of spotting why Blackburn was able to generate an increase in his swing-and-misses and, not to mention, a decent uptick in ground ball production (a near 70% rate against Los Angeles). Of course, we have seen the feast-or-famine Blackburn act before, so it’s hard to say if he can continue this output over the duration of the season. Nevertheless, based on these findings, if he can maintain a swing-and-miss rate around 7% while keeping that ground ball rate at or above 60%, he could be in line for a much needed bounce back season.

The Twins recently announced that Target Field would be a smoke-free facility starting in 2012. Apparently, they were not referencing tobacco products but rather Carl Pavano’s fastball. Minnesota’s inning-eating stalwart of the past several seasons entered Opening Day in Baltimore and was not impressing any radar gun enthusiasts by tossing his fastball a touch over 85 miles an hour. On Saturday, Star Tribune columnist Jim Souhan reported that there were some organizational staffers were “alarmed” at this development. [ATTACH=CONFIG]557[/ATTACH] At Baseball Prospectus, former analyst and current Houston Astros’ staffer Mike Fast found that pitchers’ velocity is a bell curve over the course of the season: “Fastball speed for an average major-league pitcher starts at its lowest point in early April, rises by about 1.0-1.5 mph to a peak in the month of July, and declines gradually thereafter. These trends apply similarly to starting pitchers and relief pitchers.” As you can see from the chart above, like Fast’s research which showed velocity increased throughout the season, Pavano also had a gradual climb in velocity as the season progressed. In 2009 and 2010, he added roughly 2 miles an hour to his fastball. Last year, however, he was only able to dial up his heat 0.2 miles an hour. Meanwhile, this year, he has begun at his lowest starting point in the past four years. At 36 years old and coming off of two straight seasons of throwing over 222 innings -- not to mention a failure to ratchet up his fastball in 2011 like he did in 2009 and 2010 -- this may be an early indication that he could be wearing down indefinitely. To be fair, Pavano, who has never been a hard thrower even in the early stages of his career, has always relied on his fastball’s command and movement over power. Because of its pedestrian nature in comparison to the rest of the league, when he misses his spots over the plate opponents have been able to lacerate his fastball (such as what happened when Nick Markakis launched a two-run home run off of him in the first inning of Friday’s contest). For instance, in 2009, the year in which the Twins traded for him at the waiver deadline, Pavano’s fastball was valued at -23.8 runs below average by Fangraphs.com – the worst rate in baseball among qualified starters. The following year it came in at -7.2, a fair improvement but still near the bottom of the league. Last season his fastball finished at -25.6, second only to A.J. Burnett’s -34. Despite all of that, Pavano has managed to remain a pitcher who has turned in consecutive seasons of 3 wins above replacement since 2009. What allowed him to succeed despite the sheer obliteration of his heater was guile – throwing a decent combination of a slider and changeup that incited plenty of opponents to expand the strike zone and swing at less than favorable pitches. Between 2009 and 2011, he was able to get hitters to swing at 34.4 percent of out-of-zone pitches – the second-highest amount in baseball. In short, opponents were less likely to square up on a ball that is off the plate leading to more outs for Pavano in spite of chucking a lackluster fastball. But here’s another factor that should be considered as his velocity declines: the differential between his fastball and his off-speed pitches is eroding. Along with his command and movement, the secondary pitches provided Pavano with a change of speed that disrupted the opposition’s timing. Baseball researcher Dave Allen discovered that the optimal differential between a fastball and a changeup to be effective is between 5% and 12%. In essence, anything below 5% and anything above 12% gives the hitter a better read on the pitch. For Pavano, in 2009 and 2010, he had an approximate nine mile per hour differential between his fastball and his changeup. This resulted in differentials of 10.2% in ‘09 and 9.4% in ’10. Last season, he posted a differential of 8.8%, still within the sweet spot Allen described but was definitely trending downward as his fastball’s velocity decreased. In just his one start, he held a differential of 4.5% slightly below the threshold for effectiveness. In theory, if Pavano continues to throw his fastball and changeup in this range, he will lose the ability to fool hitters with the off-speed stuff. Yes, it is just one outing, and his first of the year at that, but there are some signs which suggest Pavano may be in line for a hard season if he is unable to add some MPHs to his fastball.