Parker Hageman

This past week the Twins made several notable moves that affected their payroll – signing free agent reliever Joel Zumaya and coming to terms with several arbitration-eligible players including Glen Perkins and Francisco Liriano. The Twins signed Zumaya to an incentive-laden deal that can be as little of a commitment as $400,000 if he fails to break camp with the team all the way up to $1.75 million if he reaches certain performance bonuses. Shortly thereafter, the team agreed to deal with Perkins ($1.55 million) and Liriano ($5.5 million) while continuing to work on an agreement with their last arb-eligible player, second baseman Alexi Casilla. Casilla’s camp submitted a figure of $1.75 million while the Twins countered with a deal offered $1.065. Considering this organization does not enter arbitration with players regularly, it is assumed that the team and Casilla will eventually split the difference on a one-year contract. Given those recent transactions, here is the current 2012 projected payroll based on the existing knowledge found at Cot’s Contracts and the Star Tribune’s Joe Christensen’s prior assumptions: [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] As of right now, the Twins are anticipated to spend around $98.5 million on the 2012 team. That is significantly under the $115 million that the 2011 team was paid out, however, given the ownership’s desire to lower than figure, the drop-off should not be surprising. (You can certainly argue the merits of the decrease but you cannot say it was unexpected.) A few months after La Velle Neal’s interview with Jim Pohlad, the team fired general manager Bill Smith and replaced him with Terry Ryan. During Ryan’s reintroduction press conference in November, he gave a few more details regarding the payroll number: At the $98.5 million mark, the payroll is right in that sweet spot of where Ryan was describing. Because of that, it isn’t necessarily a given that the team will seek to spend that $1.5 million remaining from the assumed $100 million payroll. If Ryan opts to close up shop right now and move forward with the present lot, no one could blame him. Then again, that wouldn’t be in the best interest of the on-field product, especially considering the state of the bullpen. Even though Zumaya could be a very capable arm, based on his injury history, there is no guarantee he can sustain the duration of the season (in fact, I would easily bet against him making the maximum of his contract). Outside of Zumaya, the Twins have a bevy of intriguing yet unproven right-handed arms. The most prudent thing would be to use that money towards signing someone like Todd Coffey or Dan Wheeler. As I outlined recently, Coffey could be a valuable but inexpensive addition to the bullpen to stave off right-handed foes. Making just $1.35 million with the Nationals last year, Coffey figures to have his potential earnings diluted in the current plethora of relievers on the market and could easily be signed for $1.5 million or less. Meanwhile Wheeler, who is even more of a threat against right-handed hitters than Coffey, made a pretty penny in Boston a year ago ($3 million) but a shoulder injury at the end of the season combined with the deep market could also push him into that $1.5 million range as well. Either option would be a solid addition to deepen a fairly shallow bullpen. For the Twins, who are down to their final few shillings, choosing to spend that $1.5 million to land a bargain bin-priced reliever would undoubtedly strengthen the pitching staff.

On Monday, the Star Tribune’s Patrick Reusse recounted the tale of Sean Burroughs, a recent Twins minor league signing this winter, whose life was derailed by drinking and drugs in his twenties. In his first four seasons of professional ball in the Padres organization, Burroughs hit a remarkable .324/418/.453 in 1,653 plate appearances. Baseball America anointed him the seventh best prospect in 2000 then the sixth best in 2001 and finally the fourth best in 2002. He was the proverbial “can’t miss” prospect. Unfortunately, he missed. From 2003 to 2005, Burroughs hit .283/.343/.366 with the Padres. While in a different era his batting average may have been lauded, in the modern era that puts emphasis on reaching base AND hitting for power, Burroughs’ stock tumbled in San Diego. People began to wonder where the power - the one that baseball minds predicted he would eventually develop - was. Midway through 2005, the Friars traded for Joe Randa, who was having a solid season in Cincinnati at an extremely hitter-friendly ballpark. This was the beginning of the end for Burroughs in San Diego. Never mind that upon reaching the west coast and Petco Park Randa’s numbers tumbled to .256/.303/.395 – hardly an improvement over what Burroughs was providing them – but Burroughs’s off-field shenanigans likely accelerated his exit. According to an article by MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch, Burroughs’ attention turned to partying that season: The Padres would trade Burroughs to Tampa in exchange for another failed prospect in Dewan Brazelton but Burroughs would flounder in Florida as well. In 25 games for the Devil Rays, he hit .190/.320/.238 and earned a release in August. This begat a trail run with the Mariners the following season that lasted until June. After that, Burroughs disconnected from the world in Las Vegas, accumulating war stories which he claims would make Josh Hamilton blush. The 30-year-old Burroughs cleaned himself up and earned a spot into the Diamondbacks system. While in AAA Reno last year, he produced well in 110 plate appearances, hitting .412/.450/.618. Impressed, Arizona buoyed him between the big club and their top affiliate, chiefly using him as a pinch hitter off the bench (58 of his 115 plate appearances can off the bench). In that limited time at the big league level, Baseball America’s one-time number four overall prospect hit .273/.289/.336 with five extra base hits. While he’s a fantastic feel-good story worth of a Disney biopic, what are the odds we’ll see Burroughs at Target Field in 2012? Based on his track record, it might be fairly decent. In 2011, Danny Valencia was one of the worst rated defensive third basemen according to Baseball Info Solution’s Plus/Minus rating system (30 in MLB). Meanwhile, Burroughs has been a top defender in the game as recently as 2005. Yes, six years added to his odometer may have slowed him down some, but there are odds that his prowess still exists: Furthermore, where the right-handed hitting third base incumbent has been thwarted by same-sided nemesis (a career .283 OBP against RHP), Burroughs’s little major league success is predicated on him being able to reach base against righties (.350 career OBP against RHP). If added to the roster, he provides a solid platoon option. What’s interesting about Burroughs’s approach at the plate is that the left-hander has an inside-out swing, one that produces numerous opposite field and up-the-middle hits. As you can see from Inside Edge’s hit chart from last year, Burroughs thrives at taking inside pitches the other way – a method that provides a high average but little power. Here is a video clip that exemplifies this swing: http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=19614437&topic_id=&c_id=mlb&tc id=vpp_copy_19614437&v=3[/media] This resulted in Burroughs hitting .565 on balls hit to left while hitting just .143 when pulling the ball in 2011. Although many baseball people thought Burroughs’s power would eventually develop, it is more likely that his approach would never allow for a great deal of home runs – much like a certain Minnesota catcher (with the exception of one season). Because of his keen batting eye and ability to get base hits by using left and center fields, Burroughs maintained an average of .317 and an on-base percentage of .400 in the minors. While playing in the Venezuelan Winter League this winter, Burroughs continued by hitting .316 and posting a .396 on-base percentage in 136 at-bats. It is possible that given the opportunity to hit in more favorable situations against right-handed pitchers, he could potentially put up similar numbers. If Valencia cannot improve on his defense and his struggle against right-handed pitching persists, don’t be surprised to see Burroughs in Minnesota. At the very least, Burroughs can be a Rochester reminder for the current starter – hopefully pushing him to improve his game.

The Twins have frequently been accused of not catering to power arms and also not taking risks on their offseason signings. On Sunday, they may have made inroads in both areas by agreeing to a deal, pending a physical, with former Tigers flame-thrower Joel Zumaya. According to Joe Christensen, the Twins and Zumaya have agreed to terms of a deal worth $800,000, with the potential of adding another $900,000 of incentives based on innings pitched, pending a physical. Zumaya, the talented yet often injured pitcher, has drawn some interest this offseason. In early December, the free agent Zumaya was in Houston to throw off the mound in front of teams. Fox Sports’ Jon Morosi tweeted that a scout told him that “almost every team was there” to watch him. Reports from the Texas audition were that the 27-year-old right hander was throwing in the mid-90s, down slightly from his 98.5 mile-per-hour average from 2007 through 2010. Based on this, several team courted Zumaya as a potential buy-low, reward-high type of arm. Both Boston and San Diego were engaged in talks with him but, as the Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo reported, one AL team’s doctors did not believe that Zumaya would be able to pass a physical in order to be signed. Because the concern, it is easy to see why he would be available for under a million. As you can glean from the chart above, Zumaya’s fastball is pure diesel fuel. From 2007 to 2010, Zumaya averaged the hardest fastball in the majors. Although an impressive feat, his regular absence from the active roster was a true detriment. After bursting onto the scene in 2006 as a hot-shot 22-year-old reliever, he supposedly destroyed his elbow in 2006 by playing Guitar Hero too much (a video game that is no longer available either). In 2007, Zumaya missed extended time when he dislocated his finger while warming up in the bullpen and threw just 33.2 innings that season. Those 33.2 innings would be the most he would throw in a single season outside of his rookie year. In November of 2007, he would require AC joint reconstruction in his throwing shoulder (which he injured removing items from his Southern California homes during one of the wildfires) and missed a substantial portion of the 2008 season. The following year he would re-aggravate the shoulder in July of 2009 and wound up on the DL as the pain kept him from being able to lift his arm above his head. Finally, in 2010 most Twins fans were witness to Zumaya’s elbow exploding (a fractured olecranon) on a 99-mile-per-hour pitch to Delmon Young. He would miss the entire 2011 season because of that last injury, which necessitated a subsequent surgical procedure to replace a screw that was inserted into his elbow after the fracture. Given the laundry list of ailments, it wouldn’t surprise me that during his impending physical that those doctors discover that his elbow is being held together with rubber band and duct tape. Clearly, there is an injury risk associated with him but when healthy, he’s been a dominate arm in the bullpen. Over his career, he’s thrown 209.1 innings, striking out 23.1% of all batters faced and holding opponents to a .213 average against. However, unlike the majority of his Twin counterparts, Zumaya’s been a bit erratic with his control. His 12.8 % walk rate dating back to 2007 has been one of the league’s higher numbers in that period. Because of the various injuries, you can see how they would affect his command, particularly in 2008 and 2009 when he was recovering from shoulder surgery (44 walks in 54.1 innings). Considering he is recovering from elbow surgery this time around, it is very possible that Zumaya will struggle with his control in 2012. If things work out favorable for Zumaya in the health department, it is an exciting move that could transform the look of the bullpen, giving Ron Gardenhire a viable late innings right-handed option that was missing from the 2011 squad. At the same time, we must remember that Zumaya is coming off surgery that really has no comparables that would indicate how he will respond. Early indications suggest that the velocity is not quite what it was – as Phil Mackey tweeted, the Twins clocked Zumaya between 92-94 miles per hour – so while it is still good readings, you have to wonder if several ticks off the fastball (one that is thrown up and over the plate) translates into a few more hits. On top of that, there are some team doctors who simply do not think he would pass a physical let alone finish an entire season. This is certainly an out-of-the-box move for the Twins. We’ve seen a steady history of safe bets - those low-risk/ low-reward acquisitions for the bullpen that have become the organization’s MO. Zumaya, who’s obviously a high risk with his injury history, yet he represents a very high reward. With less a million dollars invested, the Zumaya signing is a good gamble for Minnesota.

The Twins have frequently been accused of not catering to power arms and also not taking risks on their offseason signings. On Sunday, they may have made inroads in both areas by agreeing to a deal, pending a physical, with former Tigers flame-thrower Joel Zumaya. According to Joe Christensen, the Twins and Zumaya have agreed to terms of a deal worth $800,000, with the potential of adding another $900,000 of incentives based on innings pitched, pending a physical. Zumaya, the talented yet often injured pitcher, has drawn some interest this offseason. In early December, the free agent Zumaya was in Houston to throw off the mound in front of teams. Fox Sports’ Jon Morosi tweeted that a scout told him that “almost every team was there” to watch him. Reports from the Texas audition were that the 27-year-old right hander was throwing in the mid-90s, down slightly from his 98.5 mile-per-hour average from 2007 through 2010. Based on this, several team courted Zumaya as a potential buy-low, reward-high type of arm. Both Boston and San Diego were engaged in talks with him but, as the Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo reported, one AL team’s doctors did not believe that Zumaya would be able to pass a physical in order to be signed. Because the concern, it is easy to see why he would be available for under a million. As you can glean from the chart above, Zumaya’s fastball is pure diesel fuel. From 2007 to 2010, Zumaya averaged the hardest fastball in the majors. Although an impressive feat, his regular absence from the active roster was a true detriment. After bursting onto the scene in 2006 as a hot-shot 22-year-old reliever, he supposedly destroyed his elbow in 2006 by playing Guitar Hero too much (a video game that is no longer available either). In 2007, Zumaya missed extended time when he dislocated his finger while warming up in the bullpen and threw just 33.2 innings that season. Those 33.2 innings would be the most he would throw in a single season outside of his rookie year. In November of 2007, he would require AC joint reconstruction in his throwing shoulder (which he injured removing items from his Southern California homes during one of the wildfires) and missed a substantial portion of the 2008 season. The following year he would re-aggravate the shoulder in July of 2009 and wound up on the DL as the pain kept him from being able to lift his arm above his head. Finally, in 2010 most Twins fans were witness to Zumaya’s elbow exploding (a fractured olecranon) on a 99-mile-per-hour pitch to Delmon Young. He would miss the entire 2011 season because of that last injury, which necessitated a subsequent surgical procedure to replace a screw that was inserted into his elbow after the fracture. Given the laundry list of ailments, it wouldn’t surprise me that during his impending physical that those doctors discover that his elbow is being held together with rubber band and duct tape. Clearly, there is an injury risk associated with him but when healthy, he’s been a dominate arm in the bullpen. Over his career, he’s thrown 209.1 innings, striking out 23.1% of all batters faced and holding opponents to a .213 average against. However, unlike the majority of his Twin counterparts, Zumaya’s been a bit erratic with his control. His 12.8 % walk rate dating back to 2007 has been one of the league’s higher numbers in that period. Because of the various injuries, you can see how they would affect his command, particularly in 2008 and 2009 when he was recovering from shoulder surgery (44 walks in 54.1 innings). Considering he is recovering from elbow surgery this time around, it is very possible that Zumaya will struggle with his control in 2012. If things work out favorable for Zumaya in the health department, it is an exciting move that could transform the look of the bullpen, giving Ron Gardenhire a viable late innings right-handed option that was missing from the 2011 squad. At the same time, we must remember that Zumaya is coming off surgery that really has no comparables that would indicate how he will respond. Early indications suggest that the velocity is not quite what it was – as Phil Mackey tweeted, the Twins clocked Zumaya between 92-94 miles per hour – so while it is still good readings, you have to wonder if several ticks off the fastball (one that is thrown up and over the plate) translates into a few more hits. On top of that, there are some team doctors who simply do not think he would pass a physical let alone finish an entire season. This is certainly an out-of-the-box move for the Twins. We’ve seen a steady history of safe bets - those low-risk/ low-reward acquisitions for the bullpen that have become the organization’s MO. Zumaya, who’s obviously a high risk with his injury history, yet he represents a very high reward. With less a million dollars invested, the Zumaya signing is a good gamble for Minnesota.

The Twins have frequently been accused of not catering to power arms and also not taking risks on their offseason signings. On Sunday, they may have made inroads in both areas by agreeing to a deal, pending a physical, with former Tigers flame-thrower Joel Zumaya. According to Joe Christensen, the Twins and Zumaya have agreed to terms of a deal worth $800,000, with the potential of adding another $900,000 of incentives based on innings pitched, pending a physical. Zumaya, the talented yet often injured pitcher, has drawn some interest this offseason. In early December, the free agent Zumaya was in Houston to throw off the mound in front of teams. Fox Sports’ Jon Morosi tweeted that a scout told him that “almost every team was there” to watch him. Reports from the Texas audition were that the 27-year-old right hander was throwing in the mid-90s, down slightly from his 98.5 mile-per-hour average from 2007 through 2010. Based on this, several team courted Zumaya as a potential buy-low, reward-high type of arm. Both Boston and San Diego were engaged in talks with him but, as the Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo reported, one AL team’s doctors did not believe that Zumaya would be able to pass a physical in order to be signed. Because the concern, it is easy to see why he would be available for under a million. As you can glean from the chart above, Zumaya’s fastball is pure diesel fuel. From 2007 to 2010, Zumaya averaged the hardest fastball in the majors. Although an impressive feat, his regular absence from the active roster was a true detriment. After bursting onto the scene in 2006 as a hot-shot 22-year-old reliever, he supposedly destroyed his elbow in 2006 by playing Guitar Hero too much (a video game that is no longer available either). In 2007, Zumaya missed extended time when he dislocated his finger while warming up in the bullpen and threw just 33.2 innings that season. Those 33.2 innings would be the most he would throw in a single season outside of his rookie year. In November of 2007, he would require AC joint reconstruction in his throwing shoulder (which he injured removing items from his Southern California homes during one of the wildfires) and missed a substantial portion of the 2008 season. The following year he would re-aggravate the shoulder in July of 2009 and wound up on the DL as the pain kept him from being able to lift his arm above his head. Finally, in 2010 most Twins fans were witness to Zumaya’s elbow exploding (a fractured olecranon) on a 99-mile-per-hour pitch to Delmon Young. He would miss the entire 2011 season because of that last injury, which necessitated a subsequent surgical procedure to replace a screw that was inserted into his elbow after the fracture. Given the laundry list of ailments, it wouldn’t surprise me that during his impending physical that those doctors discover that his elbow is being held together with rubber band and duct tape. Clearly, there is an injury risk associated with him but when healthy, he’s been a dominate arm in the bullpen. Over his career, he’s thrown 209.1 innings, striking out 23.1% of all batters faced and holding opponents to a .213 average against. However, unlike the majority of his Twin counterparts, Zumaya’s been a bit erratic with his control. His 12.8 % walk rate dating back to 2007 has been one of the league’s higher numbers in that period. Because of the various injuries, you can see how they would affect his command, particularly in 2008 and 2009 when he was recovering from shoulder surgery (44 walks in 54.1 innings). Considering he is recovering from elbow surgery this time around, it is very possible that Zumaya will struggle with his control in 2012. If things work out favorable for Zumaya in the health department, it is an exciting move that could transform the look of the bullpen, giving Ron Gardenhire a viable late innings right-handed option that was missing from the 2011 squad. At the same time, we must remember that Zumaya is coming off surgery that really has no comparables that would indicate how he will respond. Early indications suggest that the velocity is not quite what it was – as Phil Mackey tweeted, the Twins clocked Zumaya between 92-94 miles per hour – so while it is still good readings, you have to wonder if several ticks off the fastball (one that is thrown up and over the plate) translates into a few more hits. On top of that, there are some team doctors who simply do not think he would pass a physical let alone finish an entire season. This is certainly an out-of-the-box move for the Twins. We’ve seen a steady history of safe bets - those low-risk/ low-reward acquisitions for the bullpen that have become the organization’s MO. Zumaya, who’s obviously a high risk with his injury history, yet he represents a very high reward. With less a million dollars invested, the Zumaya signing is a good gamble for Minnesota.

According to Phil Mackey at 1500ESPN.com, the Twins have been in contact with a potential bullpen arm: On paper, backend depth in the bullpen was supposed to be a strength for the 2011 Twins as they had Joe Nathan and Matt Capps in place to handle the 8th and 9th innings to shorten games. Of course, in reality, Nathan’s return from Tommy John surgery was predictably premature while Capps would labor through arm issues of his own, leaving the Twins short in late inning arms – particularly from the right side. Without question, the left-handed Glen Perkins filled the role admirably as the bridge to the closer, even holding righties to a bullpen-best .259 batting average against. Yet, the Twins struggled to find a suitable candidate to square off on tougher right-handed hitters – guys who could be counted on to defuse a late inning matchup with Paul Konerko or Miguel Cabrera. Over the course of the season, the team trotted out young arms in Alex Burnett (789 OPS vs RHB), Lester Oliveros (706 OPS), Esmerling Vasquez (606 OPS) and Kyle Waldrop (909 OPS). While the future may prove otherwise, based on their results none of those players seemed ready to handle more critical situations. As those pitchers get the opportunity to develop in less vital roles - perhaps eventually marrying the skill with their natural talent and ascending in the pecking order - the Twins would require a more stable, more consistent right-handed member of the bullpen. That’s where the 31-year-old Todd Coffey comes in. Undervalued for most of his career and, outside of his sprint in from the bullpen, Coffey has toiled away quietly in the National League, producing splits that would make blue states proud. Over his seven seasons, he has keep righties at bay at a much better rate than lefties (.265 RH avg vs .317 LH avg). That mark has improved in the past few seasons as well. Since 2009, he’s kept righties at a .222 average. While he had been given a more balanced workload in Milwaukee, facing righties and lefties a fairly equal amount, the Nationals played more to his strength by limited his engagements with wrong-handed hitters. This meant shorter outings and more selective appearances. It appears to be an ideal fit for the Twins – someone with late inning experience, who is tough on right-handed opponents and can be lifted easily for one of the plethora of southpaws in the ‘pen (Perkins or Brian Duensing). But, is Coffey as good as advertised? Interestingly, Coffey has seen his batted ball rates change significantly in the past three years. Early on in his career, Coffey was a ground-ball inducing machine, getting grounders well over 50% of the time. In 2010, that started to dip. Last year, his ground ball rate was at a career-low 43.6%. What appears to be responsible for the decline is how he deploys his slider. Prior to 2010, Coffey was mainly a fastball guy who occasionally mixed in his slider but in 2010, Coffey up his usage of the slider to the point where he nearly threw it as much as his fastball (likely in response to the higher amount of match-ups versus same-sided hitters). But it wasn’t just the amount that changed; it was how he threw the slider as well. In 2009, he would bury the slider underneath the zone, inciting any opponents who opted to chase after the pitch to go out of the strike zone to do so. Because of its trajectory and the fact that it was well underneath the hitting zone when it reached the plate, most hitters were forced to bat it into the ground or flail at it. Meanwhile, starting in 2010, Coffey began to throw his slider more often for a strike. This meant in was in the zone more resulting in more contact and more elevation in said contact. Along with the decrease in grounders, Coffey also witnessed righties hitting his offerings more solidly. According to Inside Edge’s Well Hit metric, in 2009, righties posted a .168 well-hit average. This past season, that number jumped to .221. In spite of that hard-hit rate, Coffey had a little help from his friends in the Nationals defense this year, helping convert 72.1% of balls in play into outs – also a career best. As mentioned before, Coffey has a decent fastball/slider combination that when thrown together in the right mix, he may be able to avoid getting squared up regularly. Ideally, if the Twins do sign him to subdue righties, they show him the difference in how his slider is performing and see if he can resurrected the ’09 version at Target Field.

This past week the Twins made several notable moves that affected their payroll – signing free agent reliever Joel Zumaya and coming to terms with several arbitration-eligible players including Glen Perkins and Francisco Liriano. The Twins signed Zumaya to an incentive-laden deal that can be as little of a commitment as $400,000 if he fails to break camp with the team all the way up to $1.75 million if he reaches certain performance bonuses. Shortly thereafter, the team agreed to deal with Perkins ($1.55 million) and Liriano ($5.5 million) while continuing to work on an agreement with their last arb-eligible player, second baseman Alexi Casilla. Casilla’s camp submitted a figure of $1.75 million while the Twins countered with a deal offered $1.065. Considering this organization does not enter arbitration with players regularly, it is assumed that the team and Casilla will eventually split the difference on a one-year contract. Given those recent transactions, here is the current 2012 projected payroll based on the existing knowledge found at Cot’s Contracts and the Star Tribune’s Joe Christensen’s prior assumptions: As of right now, the Twins are anticipated to spend around $98.5 million on the 2012 team. That is significantly under the $115 million that the 2011 team was paid out, however, given the ownership’s desire to lower than figure, the drop-off should not be surprising. (You can certainly argue the merits of the decrease but you cannot say it was unexpected.) A few months after La Velle Neal’s interview with Jim Pohlad, the team fired general manager Bill Smith and replaced him with Terry Ryan. During Ryan’s reintroduction press conference in November, he gave a few more details regarding the payroll number: At the $98.5 million mark, the payroll is right in that sweet spot of where Ryan was describing. Because of that, it isn’t necessarily a given that the team will seek to spend that $1.5 million remaining from the assumed $100 million payroll. If Ryan opts to close up shop right now and move forward with the present lot, no one could blame him. Then again, that wouldn’t be in the best interest of the on-field product, especially considering the state of the bullpen. Even though Zumaya could be a very capable arm, based on his injury history, there is no guarantee he can sustain the duration of the season (in fact, I would easily bet against him making the maximum of his contract). Outside of Zumaya, the Twins have a bevy of intriguing yet unproven right-handed arms. The most prudent thing would be to use that money towards signing someone like Todd Coffey or Dan Wheeler. As I outlined recently, Coffey could be a valuable but inexpensive addition to the bullpen to stave off right-handed foes. Making just $1.35 million with the Nationals last year, Coffey figures to have his potential earnings diluted in the current plethora of relievers on the market and could easily be signed for $1.5 million or less. Meanwhile Wheeler, who is even more of a threat against right-handed hitters than Coffey, made a pretty penny in Boston a year ago ($3 million) but a shoulder injury at the end of the season combined with the deep market could also push him into that $1.5 million range as well. Either option would be a solid addition to deepen a fairly shallow bullpen. For the Twins, who are down to their final few schillings, choosing to spend that $1.5 million to land a bargain bin-priced reliever would undoubtedly strengthen the pitching staff.

This past week the Twins made several notable moves that affected their payroll – signing free agent reliever Joel Zumaya and coming to terms with several arbitration-eligible players including Glen Perkins and Francisco Liriano. The Twins signed Zumaya to an incentive-laden deal that can be as little of a commitment as $400,000 if he fails to break camp with the team all the way up to $1.75 million if he reaches certain performance bonuses. Shortly thereafter, the team agreed to deal with Perkins ($1.55 million) and Liriano ($5.5 million) while continuing to work on an agreement with their last arb-eligible player, second baseman Alexi Casilla. Casilla’s camp submitted a figure of $1.75 million while the Twins countered with a deal offered $1.065. Considering this organization does not enter arbitration with players regularly, it is assumed that the team and Casilla will eventually split the difference on a one-year contract. Given those recent transactions, here is the current 2012 projected payroll based on the existing knowledge found at Cot’s Contracts and the Star Tribune’s Joe Christensen’s prior assumptions: As of right now, the Twins are anticipated to spend around $98.5 million on the 2012 team. That is significantly under the $115 million that the 2011 team was paid out, however, given the ownership’s desire to lower than figure, the drop-off should not be surprising. (You can certainly argue the merits of the decrease but you cannot say it was unexpected.) A few months after La Velle Neal’s interview with Jim Pohlad, the team fired general manager Bill Smith and replaced him with Terry Ryan. During Ryan’s reintroduction press conference in November, he gave a few more details regarding the payroll number: At the $98.5 million mark, the payroll is right in that sweet spot of where Ryan was describing. Because of that, it isn’t necessarily a given that the team will seek to spend that $1.5 million remaining from the assumed $100 million payroll. If Ryan opts to close up shop right now and move forward with the present lot, no one could blame him. Then again, that wouldn’t be in the best interest of the on-field product, especially considering the state of the bullpen. Even though Zumaya could be a very capable arm, based on his injury history, there is no guarantee he can sustain the duration of the season (in fact, I would easily bet against him making the maximum of his contract). Outside of Zumaya, the Twins have a bevy of intriguing yet unproven right-handed arms. The most prudent thing would be to use that money towards signing someone like Todd Coffey or Dan Wheeler. As I outlined recently, Coffey could be a valuable but inexpensive addition to the bullpen to stave off right-handed foes. Making just $1.35 million with the Nationals last year, Coffey figures to have his potential earnings diluted in the current plethora of relievers on the market and could easily be signed for $1.5 million or less. Meanwhile Wheeler, who is even more of a threat against right-handed hitters than Coffey, made a pretty penny in Boston a year ago ($3 million) but a shoulder injury at the end of the season combined with the deep market could also push him into that $1.5 million range as well. Either option would be a solid addition to deepen a fairly shallow bullpen. For the Twins, who are down to their final few schillings, choosing to spend that $1.5 million to land a bargain bin-priced reliever would undoubtedly strengthen the pitching staff.

For three straight years now, the Minnesota Twins have been forced into tapping one of their position players to take the mound late in a blowout game. In 2011, it was Michael Cuddyer. Last season, the honors went to Drew Butera. This year's position player was veteran infielder Jamey Carroll. Had Aaron Hicks remained on the roster, he might have been the obvious position player to be called into mop-up duty considering he was a talented high school pitcher throwing in the mid-90s and multiple teams viewed him as a pitcher at the time of the draft. Nevertheless, Carroll retired his opponents with guile and not heat. Carroll's nine-pitch eighth inning was not a thing of beauty, but it worked. He retired three consecutive Royals hitters and did not use anything resembling fastball, despite being his best fastball. MLB.com's PitchF/X system chatted all of his offerings are either a changeup or a knuckleball -- both reasonable assumptions for pitches thrown under 80 miles an hour. The St Paul Pioneer Press’s Mike Berardino tweeted after the game that Carroll had not pitched at any level since his Babe Ruth League days as a fifteen-year-old. I’m guessing the velocity has not changed much since then. How does Carroll's outing compare to Cuddyer and Butera's? You have to wonder if Carroll’s grotesque fingers gave him an unfair advantage to put addition movement on each pitch that a normal, healthy-handed pitcher would not. Sort of like Mordecai “Three Finger” Brown.

With the exception of one seasons in the early 1980s, Dick Bremer’s rich, jovial voice has been the definite sound of summer for Minnesota Twins fans in the Upper Midwest since 1983. His professionalism, knowledge and ability to entertain a wide audience for many years are the reason the Minnesota Broadcasters Hall of Fame recently selected him for induction. This honor, without question, was well deserved. It is interesting to think how people watch and understand the game of baseball has changed radically from his first days on the job. Back then the bulk of statistical analysis was being done covertly using computers the size and weight of a Kenmore dishwasher (and presumably in mom’s basement). In the same year Bremer began his Twins broadcasts, Bill James released the 1983 Baseball Abstract. In it he summarized the understanding of the game by writing that the walk was greatly undervalued as an offensive weapon and that it was viewed as a “random result of being at bat when a pitcher is stricken with control trouble” rather than a skill. In that same book, James wondered why baseball fans at that time focused too much on the results. Like wins and losses for pitchers, the RBI instead of the men who got on base to create the opportunity, and so on. “If the food is good,” wrote James, “you tip the waitress. Sabermetricians are an odd lot. We always want to know what the recipe was.” That’s the best definition I have ever heard for statistical analysis. Statistical analysis of baseball is wanting to know the recipe. Since then the publication of Moneyball and the rise of websites like Baseball Prospectus and Fangraphs have given a broader appeal and understanding to baseball fans regarding the concepts that influence the game, like the importance of walks and beyond. The knowledge of what goes in the recipe has grown tenfold as well as the access to those ingredients too. On the mainstream side, thirty years have passed and baseball’s broadcasters are still wrestling with how – of even if – they should communicate these findings to their audience. While there are some markets who have included some of the principles in their broadcasts, Minnesota has not been one of them. The Twins’ radio broadcaster Cory Provus suggested that his medium is not designed to be able to properly inform without the visuals to drive it home. How about television? Dick Bremer shares his thoughts: How do you see advanced stats as it relates to broadcast today? “Stats have mushroomed into a completely different stratosphere. They call it “broadcasting” because you have to include as many people as you can. I think the new math in baseball tends to exclude a lot of people because a lot of people don’t comprehend it…yet. As we move forward, it will become more and more a part of the lexicon of baseball and it will be incorporated more into the broadcast.” Should broadcasters discuss some of the statistical analysis and advanced metrics most teams use in some capacity for roster-building? “I think it is getting to that point, I don’t know if it is quite there yet because I don’t know if our average viewer knows what WAR (Wins Above Replacement) is. When it gets to that point, then I think that our broadcast and other broadcasts will find it more mainstream subject matter to talk about. I just don’t think it is there yet. If we came on with Batting Average On Balls In Play, for instance, I think our audience – a significant portion of it – still would be, well, what’s that mean as opposed to batting average? Batting average is easy to explain though it is not the ideal stat to determine a hitter’s value in a lineup, but that’s something that everyone can comprehend. We still are in the business of trying to include people and not exclude them." How have the numbers, stats and analysis changed in over your career in the broadcast booth? “When I started this each team produced one sheet, front and back, for their press box. Now it’s five and you get the stat pack which is twenty-some pages and that doesn’t even begin to tell you the numbers you are speaking of, you know, what a player’s Wins Above Replacement is. That doesn’t even touch that and that is still so much more numerical information then we can give in a broadcast.” Television is a medium that gives the opportunity to put visuals of stats on the screen. “When we started giving more and more on the screen, the internal debate among play-by-play guys was now do we still need to give the count? Or do we mention that there are two outs? Or can people see the two dots on the screen? I think the consensus among most play-by-play guys is that we still need to do it because people are doing other things and they’re not locked in on the screen studying everything like some people are but most people are not so you still have to do the basics. Now, if information is given on the screen, the question is maybe the announcer should give other information then what we have to watch for is it becoming a mass of numbers. Even before sabermetricians became more common in baseball that was our great concern: What are we doing on television? We can do some things on TV that they cannot do radio. But are we giving people too many numbers? If you put up a screen full of numbers then you need to leave it on the screen so people can go ‘Ok, alright, ok I get it, this is what they are trying to say’ well then you are not watching the game.” Len Kasper and the Chicago Cubs WGN broadcasts do a regular Stats Sunday feature to discuss the concepts to the fans. Could you see FSN doing something similar? “Absolutely, to educate people, which is what we try to do and is one of our functions - to educate people about how the game is played and how decisions are made by people in the front office – absolutely I can see that happening. It hasn’t happened yet and maybe it is something that, to Len’s point, we should be adapting to or including in our broadcast. Anything that adds to or enhances the enjoyment of the game, that’s our job.” You’ve been broadcasting with the Twins since before the Moneyball area. Have you noticed many changes in the game? “Since then, you’ve seen it everywhere; you’ve seen it in the Twins organization. People are far more aggressive in analyzing the game mathematically. I think most baseball executives still need the new math to pass the eye test – what they see on the field. Are there numbers that support this? One thing that I saw years ago was that Wins Above Replacement was suggesting that Alexi Casilla was a really good middle infielder. I don’t know if anyone who saw him play the game believed that but yet you can find numbers out there that supported that. There’s been a change in that direction, there’s no question, and where it will lead I don’t know, but you still need scouts’ eyes and general managers’ eyes to see what the numbers might support." How about having an analyst dedicated to talking about the statistical side of the game in the broadcast? “If baseball’s new math becomes more mainstream, yeah, and it might very well be heading in that direction. What we have to do as broadcasters though is not talk over the heads of too many people and to the extent that most of our audience does not want to or can’t comprehend baseball’s new math, how much time would we spend trying to educate them over the course of an evening’s broadcast? What is Wins Above Replacement? I hate to keep using that one but that’s actually one of the more elementary ones in terms of explaining what it means. We’re still wondering once or twice a year if we should explain the Infield Fly Rule.”