Parker Hageman

No, no. I'm just saying what he relayed to the media did not provide much insight - not that he doesn't understand these things.

With a bullpen that is holier than the Pope, the Twins have been hosting an audition with many of their arms this spring hoping to fill some of the openings. Many of the early front-runners have likely exited the race early. Some, like Joel Zumaya, had the misfortunate of being bounced out due to injury. Others, like Terry Doyle and Jason Bulger, have just failed to perform. As a lot of the field continues to falter for one reason or another, Kyle Waldrop has emerged as a potential candidate to head north with the club. After coming up through the system working as a starter, Waldrop has made a quick ascension to the upper level since being converted to a reliever. Recently dispatched into short-term work, he has thrived by throwing an impressive sinker that has damaged infield turf all over the minor leagues. In 2010, his first season at the Triple-A level, 64 percent of opponents’ batted balls were of the ground-ball variety. This past year, he upped his ground ball rate to 66 percent at Rochester and, in his brief September call-up, he was inducing grounders at a 75 percent clip with the Twins. So far this spring, Waldrop and ground-ball-riffic ways has made quite the impression on the coaching staff and teammates. According to MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger, following a cage session against the righty, Danny Valencia finished and told reporters that he has “late, heavy sink” which makes it tough to elevate the ball. Many ground ball pitchers seem to share this description from opponents, coaches and scouts alike. It seems more baseball speak than actually explaining why hitters are having troubles putting the ball in the air against him. Let’s take a look at Waldrop and see what factors into him becoming a ground ball monster. Following yet another clean outing in Fort Myers, manager Ron Gardenhire said of Waldrop “I think he just gets outs. He works quick and gets outs with a good angle.” Despite not dripping with much insight, Gardenhire’s assessment may have more to do with understanding how he is accomplishing this scorched-earth policy. The six-foot-five Waldrop has an excellent release point. In his major league debut last year, the Sportsvision’s pitch f/x camera system says that, on average, he released his pitches at six feet, seven inches high. [ATTACH=CONFIG]332[/ATTACH] That is a very high release point. To put that in perspective, Jon Rauch, baseball’s tallest indivudual at six-foot-ten, releases his pitches at six feet, seven-and-a-half inches high. In Ted Williams’ The Science of Hitting, published well before the avent of pitch f/x in 1970, the legendary hitter wrote that the majority of pitches are released somewhere between five feet, eight inches and six feet, six inches. Using that as a guideline, both Waldrop and Rauch are clearly above average in that department. Although they both share similar release points, the trajectory of their pitches favors Waldrop. Whereas Rauch’s came in at two feet, five inches on average, close to thigh high and in the middle third of the zone, Waldrop’s average pitch came in at two feet, two inches high – about slightly above the knee and in the lower third of the strike zone. Now this is the type of “downward plane” action that gets Bert all hot and bothered in the booth. More importantly, it is what makes hitters all hot and bothered. With that kind of fall and that kind of location, hitters have little choice but to hit the top half of the baseball, driving it into the ground. Yes, a strike out results in an out 100% of the time while a ground ball turns into an out roughly 76% of the time, however, neither can clear the fence on the fly and grounders do have a difficult time turning into extra base hits. Lacking the velocity (hitting 88.9 miles per hour on average) or the whiff-inducing breaking stuff, Waldrop has not gathered a ton of strike outs like most conventional prospective relief pitchers. Instead, he’s just keeping them from hitting it in the air – the next best thing. And that is his blueprint for success.

In just 134 innings in 2011, we witnessed how good Scott Baker can be as a starter. Of course, we also witnessed what has become the inevitable season-ending injury for the second-straight year. After having a procedure to remove bone chips from his elbow in 2010, Baker experienced discomfort in the pitching side elbow once again in 2011 and was sidelined, making just four appearances post-August. The hope coming into camp was that Baker would be fully healed for what is a pivotal year for the right-hander: This is the final year of his contract and at the end of the season, the Twins will have to decided whether or not to exercise a sizable $9.25 million option for 2013. Unfortunately, similar to last spring, concerns are once again flaring up for Baker as Joe Christensen reports, he was having an "inability to get loose" in Saturday's B-game start against the Pirates. Christensen also writes: While most pitchers have a bell-curve when it comes to velocity, starting lower in the spring before culminating in the warmer summer months, this is a significant drop-off and, combined with the worries of getting loose, raising larger flags for the team. As I wrote last year when this issue came to the forefront, many times bone chips and spurs are larger indications of elbow problems - the chips and spurs are often caused by loose UCLs, the Tommy John ligament, and a sign that something is not structurally sound in the elbow in general. The worst case scenario is that Baker will require some sort of procedure and miss a substantial portion of the season. The best case is that rest and slowing down his progress keeps his elbow healthy for the season's duration. Then again, the likelier scenario is that he has a similar season to the previous one where he manages to through 100-130 innings only to be shut down later on.

In just 134 innings in 2011, we witnessed how good Scott Baker can be as a starter. Of course, we also witnessed what has become the inevitable season-ending injury for the second-straight year. After having a procedure to remove bone chips from his elbow in 2010, Baker experienced discomfort in the pitching side elbow once again in 2011 and was sidelined, making just four appearances post-August. The hope coming into camp was that Baker would be fully healed for what is a pivotal year for the right-hander: This is the final year of his contract and at the end of the season, the Twins will have to decided whether or not to exercise a sizable $9.25 million option for 2013. Unfortunately, similar to last spring, concerns are once again flaring up for Baker as Joe Christensen reports, he was having an "inability to get loose" in Saturday's B-game start against the Pirates. Christensen also writes: While most pitchers have a bell-curve when it comes to velocity, starting lower in the spring before culminating in the warmer summer months, this is a significant drop-off and, combined with the worries of getting loose, raising larger flags for the team. As I wrote last year when this issue came to the forefront, many times bone chips and spurs are larger indications of elbow problems - the chips and spurs are often caused by loose UCLs, the Tommy John ligament, and a sign that something is not structurally sound in the elbow in general. The worst case scenario is that Baker will require some sort of procedure and miss a substantial portion of the season. The best case is that rest and slowing down his progress keeps his elbow healthy for the season's duration. Then again, the likelier scenario is that he has a similar season to the previous one where he manages to through 100-130 innings only to be shut down later on.

In spring training last year, New York Mets manager Terry Collins said that second base has become “an enormous offensive position. Some of the guys that have been playing there have been putting up huge numbers at second. It’s become an offensive position, so to me that’s a big piece of the puzzle.” In the American League, this has become exceedingly true. Players like Dustin Pedroia, Ian Kinsler and Robinson Cano have packed a wallop for their respective teams. The Twins meanwhile have fielded a group of players last year at second who posted a 610 OPS, well below the league’s average of 721. Clearly, the Twins are in need of some offensive contribution from the evolving position. Perhaps the team has recognized the way the trend is leaning as a reason why they moved prospect Eddie Rosario and his potent bat into the keystone position. But, while that may play out well in the long run, here in the present, the Twins need some stick. Recently, Twins Daily’s Nick Nelson continued his Position Analysis series by tackling the team’s second base spot, naming Alexi Casilla as the likely starter. In short, Nelson pointing out that Casilla has both the talent but at the same time the lack of consistency to hold down the job. Wrote Nelson: On both accounts, Nelson is spot on. Casilla’s track record in the minor leagues is fairly impressive. In a little under 2,000 plate appearances, the switch-hitting middle infielder posted a very good .296/.370/.371 batting line. While in the farm system, he demonstrated a strong strike zone recognition (walking in nine percent of his plate appearances) and an equally outstanding contact rate (striking out just 11 percent of his plate appearances). He lacked the power to be fawned over by prospect farmers but he contributed with his speed when possible, swiping 164 bags at a 75% success clip. On the other hand, when at the major league level, Casilla has shown just flashes of that talent – if only in small and disappointing doses. Early on, his position was secured in Ron Gardenhire’s doghouse as Casilla failed to show the stability in the field that has become so instilled as “the Twins way.” Handed the second base job in 2009, he went out and promptly hit .202/.280/.259 and pushed the team into starting Matt Tolbert and Nick Punto over him. Still, for all his faults, the Twins have hung on to him only to witness small bursts of his promising talent. For instance, in 2010, limited to just 69 games, he hit .276/.331/.395 and avoided the chopping block for one more season. When he was off to a horrendous start in 2011, hitting .167/.227/.200 through the first twenty games, it was widely believed that he had probably earned his way out of the organization and needed a change of scenery. Instead, Casilla made some mechanical adjustments and rebounded to the tune of .281/.344/.408 over his next 74 games before a hamstring injury knocked him out for the year. Considering the rollercoaster that has Casilla’s career, it’s hard to peg him down for 2012. While the rest of the Twins Daily community isn’t sold on his skill I (for some reason) remain optimistic that we are going to see a much improved Casilla this coming year. While never being one to rely on off-season league and spring training stats for any indication of future performance, Casilla has been impressive in both nevertheless. In his Dominican League stint, he produced a .336 batting average – which was the second-highest in the league – in addition to a .419 on-base percentage. Yes, the counterargument to this is that the island league is littered with wash-out major leaguers and clinging-to-life minor leaguers but it is reassuring that Casilla has managed to carry the adjustments he made in 2011 into the off-season. Likewise, Casilla’s current .438 spring average in the Grapefruit League in 17 plate appearances is a continuation of his winter league performance. And, yes, much like the winter league stats, the numbers posted in Florida mean little – but it is leaps and bounds better than his two prior spring performances in which in hit .200 (10-for-50) in 2011 and .135 (7-for-53) in 2010. Admittedly, in terms of optimism, that’s not a strong foundation to build a projection on. I’d rather be able to compare a high line drive rate and a suppressed batting average on balls in play from the previous season, similar to Danny Valencia’s 2011, in an effort to push positivity – something more concrete and substantial than basing it on that he has done well when it has not mattered. However, if we are looking for a sign or indication that Casilla is ready to marry his potential to his actual performance, this is a step in the right direction.

Question: Why is this graph smiling? Answer: Because its owner just locked in $10.3 million guaranteed. http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/theeight_1331276533_Perkins.png On Thursday morning, the Twins announced that they have extended Glen Perkins through 2015with an option for 2016. Heading into 2011, based on his substandard results such as his strike out rate, this would have been unheard of, a Twitter punch line among baseball fans. Glen Perkins to a multi-year deal? Get the eff out of here. Without question, it was hard to see this season coming. Take Baseball Prospectus - an entity that touts it as having “deadly accurate” predictions - and their forecast on Perkins: “Perkins clashed publicly with management in 2009, claiming that it had wrongfully downplayed the severity of his elbow injury. He then had an awful spring training and first half of the 2010 season at Triple-A before returning to the major leagues as a reliever late in the season. The real positive of 2010 was that Perkins regained velocity on his fastball (which averaged 92 mph) and improved the bite on his slider. This led to what was, by his standards, a successful September (11 innings, 11 strikeouts, 3.09 ERA). If there is a common thread to Perkins’ recent career, it is his inability to fool batters. They have hit .305 against him over the last three seasons and rarely strike out. Because he’s left-handed, Perkins will get his share of chances, be they from the Twins or other teams, but barring a continuation of his autumn activities, he’s just not a major-league pitcher.” This just goes to prove that even though you may be industry leaders in predicting performance it is still a very inexact science. Last spring, Perkins’ breakthrough started innocuously enough. At Fort Myers, his totals were bested slightly by the soon-to-be washed out Dusty Hughes. Hughes worked 12 innings, posting a 7/5 K/BB ratio with a .183 opponent average against while not allowing a run. Perkins, on the other hand, went 12 innings too with a good 7/3 K/BB ratio with a .238 average against. While those are both good, superficially, more people may be inclined to select Hughes rather than Perkins. And Baseball Prospectus was not alone on their assessment of Perkins. Unlike the national analysts who followed him from a far, many local bloggers who monitored his career more closely were also guilty of this egregious miscalculation of his career trajectory (present company included). His success in 2011 is a reminder to those of us who cull through the data to project players often forget about the drive that a player might have to stay at the highest level or the wherewithal to rebound from an injury. Rather than slinking into the Triple-A abyss or bouncing around from different organization to different organization, Glen Perkins went out and simply #PMKI. As Baseball Prospectus said, Perkins’ velocity in 2010 of 92 miles an hour did not stop there. It progress throughout the 2011 season, averaging 94 miles an hour and, according to Pitch F/X data, peaking, on August 10th as a 98 mile an hour bullet against David Ortiz. His arm had progressed well beyond what most experts had expected giving him a rejuvenated fastball and giving him a much better foundation to throw his secondary offerings. And it was the effects of his secondary pitch, his slider, which became the focal point of his reemergence. Baseball Prospectus observed that the “bite” had return but they had no idea of how impressive it would be combined with his now elite fastball. Fangraphs.com said his slider was evaluated as 9.9 runs above average – a mark that was eighth-best among qualified reliever. Because of the effectiveness of his slider, Perkins was able to manhandle right-handed opponents, often a difficult task for left-handed pitchers. Due to the movement and location of his slider, Perkins was able to induce a 32 percent chase rate of out of zone pitches by right-handed batters – the highest rate posted by a left-hander last season. As you can see in this example to the Brewers’ Casey McGahee, he was able to make it appear to be a knee-high fastball which would quickly fade into their ankles, leaving right-handers flailing away at nothingness. The results of his newfound (or rediscovered) stuff were nothing short of amazing. He went from a hurler who struck out hitters in the low-teens per plate appearance to one who was striking out more than 20 percent of opponents faced, putting him among the games top pitchers. What makes it more impressive is that he was able to handle both sides of the plate with ease. The future for Glen Perkins, just like it had been in the winter of 2010, is just as unclear. The Twins are hedging their bets that he sustains this breakout for the next four years. If that is the case, and he maintains his 1.7 WAR (which is “worth” approximately $7.8 million) he will undoubtedly outperform this contract extension. Then again, while the Twins have done well signing set-up men like Jesse Crain and Matt Guerrier in long-term deals, the front office seems to have a belief that relievers are a very inconsistent breed. After re-signing closer Matt Capps, who is coming off a down year, Terry Ryan said this: "[Capps] had an off year. I'm not trying to hide anything there. We just think he had an off year and we had a little bit of that last year. Relievers are like that a lot, and it's not just Matt. It happens many times." So Ryan and his staff understand the volatile nature of the relief business. The small sample size and the over-reliance on certain arms can lead to a down year and thus the team may wind up overpaying for his services. Clearly, having watched Perkins come up through the system and understanding what he is capable of, the Twins must be more comfortable in his potential in order to dole out that kind of cheddar to a relief pitcher who has had one year on record of success.

Question: Why is this graph smiling? Answer: Because its owner just locked in $10.3 million guaranteed. http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/theeight_1331276533_Perkins.png On Thursday morning, the Twins announced that they have extended Glen Perkins through 2015with an option for 2016. Heading into 2011, based on his substandard results such as his strike out rate, this would have been unheard of, a Twitter punch line among baseball fans. Glen Perkins to a multi-year deal? Get the eff out of here. Without question, it was hard to see this season coming. Take Baseball Prospectus - an entity that touts it as having “deadly accurate” predictions - and their forecast on Perkins: “Perkins clashed publicly with management in 2009, claiming that it had wrongfully downplayed the severity of his elbow injury. He then had an awful spring training and first half of the 2010 season at Triple-A before returning to the major leagues as a reliever late in the season. The real positive of 2010 was that Perkins regained velocity on his fastball (which averaged 92 mph) and improved the bite on his slider. This led to what was, by his standards, a successful September (11 innings, 11 strikeouts, 3.09 ERA). If there is a common thread to Perkins’ recent career, it is his inability to fool batters. They have hit .305 against him over the last three seasons and rarely strike out. Because he’s left-handed, Perkins will get his share of chances, be they from the Twins or other teams, but barring a continuation of his autumn activities, he’s just not a major-league pitcher.” This just goes to prove that even though you may be industry leaders in predicting performance it is still a very inexact science. Last spring, Perkins’ breakthrough started innocuously enough. At Fort Myers, his totals were bested slightly by the soon-to-be washed out Dusty Hughes. Hughes worked 12 innings, posting a 7/5 K/BB ratio with a .183 opponent average against while not allowing a run. Perkins, on the other hand, went 12 innings too with a good 7/3 K/BB ratio with a .238 average against. While those are both good, superficially, more people may be inclined to select Hughes rather than Perkins. And Baseball Prospectus was not alone on their assessment of Perkins. Unlike the national analysts who followed him from a far, many local bloggers who monitored his career more closely were also guilty of this egregious miscalculation of his career trajectory (present company included). His success in 2011 is a reminder to those of us who cull through the data to project players often forget about the drive that a player might have to stay at the highest level or the wherewithal to rebound from an injury. Rather than slinking into the Triple-A abyss or bouncing around from different organization to different organization, Glen Perkins went out and simply #PMKI. As Baseball Prospectus said, Perkins’ velocity in 2010 of 92 miles an hour did not stop there. It progress throughout the 2011 season, averaging 94 miles an hour and, according to Pitch F/X data, peaking, on August 10th as a 98 mile an hour bullet against David Ortiz. His arm had progressed well beyond what most experts had expected giving him a rejuvenated fastball and giving him a much better foundation to throw his secondary offerings. And it was the effects of his secondary pitch, his slider, which became the focal point of his reemergence. Baseball Prospectus observed that the “bite” had return but they had no idea of how impressive it would be combined with his now elite fastball. Fangraphs.com said his slider was evaluated as 9.9 runs above average – a mark that was eighth-best among qualified reliever. Because of the effectiveness of his slider, Perkins was able to manhandle right-handed opponents, often a difficult task for left-handed pitchers. Due to the movement and location of his slider, Perkins was able to induce a 32 percent chase rate of out of zone pitches by right-handed batters – the highest rate posted by a left-hander last season. As you can see in this example to the Brewers’ Casey McGahee, he was able to make it appear to be a knee-high fastball which would quickly fade into their ankles, leaving right-handers flailing away at nothingness. The results of his newfound (or rediscovered) stuff were nothing short of amazing. He went from a hurler who struck out hitters in the low-teens per plate appearance to one who was striking out more than 20 percent of opponents faced, putting him among the games top pitchers. What makes it more impressive is that he was able to handle both sides of the plate with ease. The future for Glen Perkins, just like it had been in the winter of 2010, is just as unclear. The Twins are hedging their bets that he sustains this breakout for the next four years. If that is the case, and he maintains his 1.7 WAR (which is “worth” approximately $7.8 million) he will undoubtedly outperform this contract extension. Then again, while the Twins have done well signing set-up men like Jesse Crain and Matt Guerrier in long-term deals, the front office seems to have a belief that relievers are a very inconsistent breed. After re-signing closer Matt Capps, who is coming off a down year, Terry Ryan said this: "[Capps] had an off year. I'm not trying to hide anything there. We just think he had an off year and we had a little bit of that last year. Relievers are like that a lot, and it's not just Matt. It happens many times." So Ryan and his staff understand the volatile nature of the relief business. The small sample size and the over-reliance on certain arms can lead to a down year and thus the team may wind up overpaying for his services. Clearly, having watched Perkins come up through the system and understanding what he is capable of, the Twins must be more comfortable in his potential in order to dole out that kind of cheddar to a relief pitcher who has had one year on record of success.

Nick Blackburn’s greatest redeeming quality is his ability to consume innings. Unfortunately, for the past two consecutive seasons, he has not come close to proving his worth in this department. When he was not sidelined by injuries, Blackburn pitched on either side of the spectrum for the Twins. One month - like May 2011 where he went 3-0 with a 2.53 ERA in 42 innings pitched - he would be dazzling, using his sinker effectively and keeping opponents off-balanced. The next month – like July in which he went 1-2 with a 7.45 ERA in 29 innings – he’d have fallen apart and was beaten senseless across the field. Naturally, injuries played a significant role in his bi-polar performances and helps explain his decline to some degree. But Blackburn has come into camp healthier following his second-straight offseason with an elbow procedure and, according to the Pioneer Press’s John Shipley, he has made a series of adjustments that they hope will improve his numbers against right-handed hitters: Shifting on the rubber is not an uncommon practice among pitchers. In 2011, pitch f/x guru Mike Fast found that some premier pitchers such as Cole Hamels, Clayton Kershaw and Justin Verlander all made in-season adjustments by shifting their starting point. In their cases, all three hurlers moved to the first base side of the rubber. By shifting to the middle, Blackburn is hoping to add a bit of deception to his repertoire to combat right-handed foes. And the changes are completely necessary for Blackie. Over the past two seasons, right-handers have feasted on his offerings. In 2010, they hit a robust .318/.352/.485 in 345 plate appearances. Those totals increased this past season when they hit .316/.362/.507 in 318 plate appearances. This is starkly different from his results pre-2010 when he last threw his slider successfully. While hiding the ball longer may improve his marks, having a secondary pitch such as his slider would likely go further towards curbing righties. Keep in mind that spring training is a time where promises are often made and the regular season is where they are not kept. Last year, Jose Mijares received glowing reviews about his new two-seamer. That did not exactly pan out for the big lefty. As the spring progresses, be sure to monitor how Blackburn fares against same-sided opponents.

Nick Blackburn’s greatest redeeming quality is his ability to consume innings. Unfortunately, for the past two consecutive seasons, he has not come close to proving his worth in this department. When he was not sidelined by injuries, Blackburn pitched on either side of the spectrum for the Twins. One month - like May 2011 where he went 3-0 with a 2.53 ERA in 42 innings pitched - he would be dazzling, using his sinker effectively and keeping opponents off-balanced. The next month – like July in which he went 1-2 with a 7.45 ERA in 29 innings – he’d have fallen apart and was beaten senseless across the field. Naturally, injuries played a significant role in his bi-polar performances and helps explain his decline to some degree. But Blackburn has come into camp healthier following his second-straight offseason with an elbow procedure and, according to the Pioneer Press’s John Shipley, he has made a series of adjustments that they hope will improve his numbers against right-handed hitters: Shifting on the rubber is not an uncommon practice among pitchers. In 2011, pitch f/x guru Mike Fast found that some premier pitchers such as Cole Hamels, Clayton Kershaw and Justin Verlander all made in-season adjustments by shifting their starting point. In their cases, all three hurlers moved to the first base side of the rubber. By shifting to the middle, Blackburn is hoping to add a bit of deception to his repertoire to combat right-handed foes. And the changes are completely necessary for Blackie. Over the past two seasons, right-handers have feasted on his offerings. In 2010, they hit a robust .318/.352/.485 in 345 plate appearances. Those totals increased this past season when they hit .316/.362/.507 in 318 plate appearances. This is starkly different from his results pre-2010 when he last threw his slider successfully. While hiding the ball longer may improve his marks, having a secondary pitch such as his slider would likely go further towards curbing righties. Keep in mind that spring training is a time where promises are often made and the regular season is where they are not kept. Last year, Jose Mijares received glowing reviews about his new two-seamer. That did not exactly pan out for the big lefty. As the spring progresses, be sure to monitor how Blackburn fares against same-sided opponents.

As the battle for the 25-man roster heats up in the Florida sunshine, utility hopeful Luke Hughes is going to be given a long look but no leeway, regardless of his current option situation says Twins general manager Terry Ryan: Hughes, who suffered a sprained shoulder while playing in Australia, has been cautiously re-introduced to playing time this spring, getting time as a DH until the team feels he is ready for throwing. After going 0-for-3 in last night’s game against Boston, he is now 0-for-6 to start spring training play. Obviously it is hard to gauge a player’s ability based upon spring statistics. A year ago, Hughes was tearing through the Grapefruit League, leading the team with six home runs in 65 at bats. While the power display was impressive, the 17-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio was not. It turns out, his major league play in 2011 wound up playing out more closely associated with the strikeout-to-walk ratio than it was to the home runs. Last season, after having issues with handling pitches on the inner half, Joe Vavra had Hughes make some adjustments in order to better clear his hands. After a mid-season stint in Rochester, Hughes came back in August and showed off more of that power, hitting 4 home runs in 44 plate appearance…but also with a 14-to-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio that was very similar to his spring rate. Things grew worse in September as he finished the year 12-for-68 (.176) with a 17-to-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio. When he made contact, the changes helped him drive the ball better in the season’s final two months, even if his batting line didn’t show it. Star Tribune columnist and 1500ESPN host Patrick Reusse made an observation on his Twitter account, on Valentine’s Day no less, that Hughes has a glaring hole at the plate – specifically the outer half. Hughes did not take too kindly to Reusse’s social media scouting report and fired back at him in the only adorablely scary way a seemingly mad Australian can: [ATTACH=CONFIG]266[/ATTACH] While it may have come off as a snide comment, Reusse was right. Hughes has struggled when being pitched away. According to Inside Edge, Hughes hold a .061 well-hit average (well-hit balls/swing) on pitches on the outer half of the plate. Of hitters who have had 250 or more plate appearances, Hughes’s outside well-hit average was the 11th-worst in baseball (new teammate Jamey Carroll’s .036 was the worst in baseball last year). Admittedly, the well-hit average is a subjective statistic. Inside Edge’s video scouts will determine whether or not a player hit a ball “well” (a hard grounder, liner, warning track fly, etc) that they felt was hit on the screws. So, while it is a judgment call, over the course of the season the team of video scouts has concurred with Reusse’s scrutiny. The Reusse/Hughes Twitter tussle reminded me of a pair of other stories involving writers calling major league hitters out on their shortcomings. In his book “Fantasyland”, Sam Walker used his press credentials afforded to him from the Wall Street Journal in hopes of accessing clubhouses to gain some insight that may help his fantasy baseball team win the experts-only T.O.U.T War league. At one point, Walker engaged then-Twins outfielder Jacque Jones in the Metrodome clubhouse. Walker came equipped with some stats to show Jones that he was failing magnificently against left-handed pitching, a fact that was so apparent to everyone else. When presented with this, Jones was unaware of what was basic common knowledge. He disagreed with Walker, even with the spreadsheet stats in his lap that showed the numbers that he was indeed owned by left-handed pitching. Torii Hunter, overhearing the conversation, said, to paraphrase, “Man, you are terrible against lefties.” Two years ago, Jon Sciambi, an ESPN broadcaster, wrote a great piece for Baseball Prospectus that involved the advancement of statistics within the mainstream broadcasts (I highly recommend reading the whole thing if you have not already). In it, Sciambi recanted the story he had with future Hall of Famer Chipper Jones: Perhaps Hughes, like the Joneses before him, was oblivious to the fact that he struggles with the outside pitch. It’s not entirely out of the question that a player does not recognize to what degree he cannot handle a certain pitch in a certain location. After all, Twins hitting coach Joe Vavra said that while he uses a plethora of data – including pitch f/x – he does not always share it with the “younger players” as it is an information overload. Then again, maybe Hughes was acutely aware of the problem and just did not want to hear it from a curmudgeonly local media personality through Twitter. You can’t blame him if that was the case. Overall, he’s made some good late season adjustments in 2011, hit well in the Australian Winter League where he worked with former Twin Glenn Williams on refining his swing, and the Twins risk losing him if they do not carry him. Ryan’s comments notwithstanding, Hughes has an inside track to a spot on the roster.

There’s plenty of concern internally for Justin Morneau’s future. Now former teammate and friend Nick Punto has echoed that concern. On Monday, Punto described a game of phone-tag he’s been having with Morneau and he sounds like he’s having some concerns that the big Canadian is not returning his calls. From Gordon Edes’s ESPN Boston article: Perhaps Punto may be reading too far into the meaning behind Morneau’s non-calls. Perhaps not. Certainly Morneau’s comments to the media in Florida last week made everyone take a step back but so far, he’s been in practice every day – even hitting a bomb off of Francisco Liriano – and went on the record to clarify his previous comments that got everyone so riled up: As it has been stressed, Morneau is on a day-by-day life right now. So far, there has not been any indication of concussion symptoms in spring’s infancy however, given that his last one was received while diving for a ball, there’s no telling when the next one could occur.

There’s plenty of concern internally for Justin Morneau’s future. Now former teammate and friend Nick Punto has echoed that concern. On Monday, Punto described a game of phone-tag he’s been having with Morneau and he sounds like he’s having some concerns that the big Canadian is not returning his calls. From Gordon Edes’s ESPN Boston article: Perhaps Punto may be reading too far into the meaning behind Morneau’s non-calls. Perhaps not. Certainly Morneau’s comments to the media in Florida last week made everyone take a step back but so far, he’s been in practice every day – even hitting a bomb off of Francisco Liriano – and went on the record to clarify his previous comments that got everyone so riled up: As it has been stressed, Morneau is on a day-by-day life right now. So far, there has not been any indication of concussion symptoms in spring’s infancy however, given that his last one was received while diving for a ball, there’s no telling when the next one could occur.

Without knowing the ins-and-outs of the Diamond Mind runs saving accounting systems, I can't speak to the strengths and weaknesses of it. I do know the Plus/Minus system and Stats Inc's methods so I can rely on that. I will say this, Plus/Minus does not think outfield arms costs nearly as many runs Diamond Mind seems to think - even from the worst CF arms - and I tend to agree with that, even factoring in the distances of the throws. What's more is that Span's arm hasn't been substantially better than Revere's to even merit the consideration of pushing him out of center field a given. P/M finds that Revere's arm - although rated one of the worst - was only 3 runs below average. Span, whose arm was also fairly bad last year, was 2 runs below average - making him at the bottom of the list - and he was run on at about the same frequency as Revere. In his introduction to center field and Target Field in 2010, Span struggled with (1) the leadership role of center, failing to call off corner outfielders and pulling up to allow a Cuddyer or Kubel to attempt to get a gapper when he had the ability to get to it and (2) the wind effects of Target Field. Now, Span did improve in both areas in 2011 but Revere, in his first year, was much more poised at the position and carried a bit of that Carlos Gomez catch-it-at-all-costs attitude when patrolling center. As I said before, there's a 100 additional plays in CF each year versus the corners so I would prefer to have the better fly-catcher out there and, so far, I believe that is Revere. I've seen this scenario outlined before and I can't recall if Span cheating towards right this was mentioned by Gardy in the winter caravan or not. Here's the thing, I don't believe this will play out in reality. While you would want to have that alignment, the majority of hitters in baseball are right-handed and thus Span will likely cheat towards left. Of course, I'm sure the outfielders will be positioned on a case-by-case basis depending who's hitting, pitching, and what the runner and outs situations are. In the end, I don't think it is a bad decision to go Revere-Span-Willingham in the outfield. That's still a very above-average defensive alignment 2/3rds of the way through.

John Shipley had an article this morning regarding Danny Valencia and shared some of the spillage of information gathered from general manager Terry Ryan in his blog. Ryan on how he handles players: On his defensive struggles: On Valencia's clubhouse presence: On Valencia's future: I've certainly heard from a few front office members who have not quite embraced Valencia's "swagger" attitude. That doesn't exactly fit the Twins mold. Of course, that doesn't necessarily mean it's a bad thing either, but when a team is losing, those sorts of traits are magnified (a hundred times more when your production drops off from your rookie year as well). Even with his personality that might rub people the wrong way, you have to appreciate that he is attempting to improve on the field, working on both his offense as well as his defense. If Valencia makes the necessary tweaks at the plate - returning to someone who thrived going back up the middle instead of trying to turn on every pitch - I wholly expect his numbers to be significantly improved in 2012. If that happens to be the case, I would anticipate the comments regarding his attitude to subside.

John Shipley had an article this morning regarding Danny Valencia and shared some of the spillage of information gathered from general manager Terry Ryan in his blog. Ryan on how he handles players: On his defensive struggles: On Valencia's clubhouse presence: On Valencia's future: I've certainly heard from a few front office members who have not quite embraced Valencia's "swagger" attitude. That doesn't exactly fit the Twins mold. Of course, that doesn't necessarily mean it's a bad thing either, but when a team is losing, those sorts of traits are magnified (a hundred times more when your production drops off from your rookie year as well). Even with his personality that might rub people the wrong way, you have to appreciate that he is attempting to improve on the field, working on both his offense as well as his defense. If Valencia makes the necessary tweaks at the plate - returning to someone who thrived going back up the middle instead of trying to turn on every pitch - I wholly expect his numbers to be significantly improved in 2012. If that happens to be the case, I would anticipate the comments regarding his attitude to subside.