Parker Hageman

[ATTACH=CONFIG]2683[/ATTACH]One of the more notable batted ball tendencies out of Joe Mauer’s 2012 season is that for the first time in his career, he actually pulled the ball more often than he went the other way. This happened very quietly, perhaps because he still managed to spray the entire field with hits and, admittedly, it was not as if he was launching majestic shots onto the plaza with this new found tendency to make anyone take notice. Rather, the Twins backstop/first baseman/designated hitter drove the ball into the ground at the same alarming rate he had for the majority of his career. Only this time, they found real estate at a higher clip than his norm. With the league’s second-highest ground ball rate when pulling – an unsightly 85.1% ground ball rate – it is hard to believe that so many of those scooted past first and second basemen in 2012. Nevertheless, when he did yank the pitch, he had a ball in play average of .285 – his highest success rate aside from his ’07 mark of .295 produced thanks, in part, to the ground ball-accelerating carpeting of the Metrodome. While this could be a statistical anomaly or simply batted ball luck, digging deeper, it appears that there may be some intelligent design behind this method. The first thing to consider is that Mauer’s pull tendencies do not reflect any changes made in response to changes in the oppositions’ approach, on the contrary, they kept the ball down-and-away at a high frequency. However, when they did go down-and-in or on his belt off of the plate, Mauer opened up more readily on those pitches. Here, his batting average on balls in play chart in 2012, provided by BaseballProspectus.com, shows how well he was at handling pitches down and in: Particularly interesting is Mauer’s aggressive tendencies with pitches that were in off of the plate. Although he does inside-out plenty of pitches on the inner half, the further they are off the plate, the more likely it is that a hitter must open up and attack the pitch out in front. This translates into a higher percentage of hits to the right-side of the field for left-handed hitters. Now, situationally, next to the Yankees’ Robinson Cano (166) Mauer was at the plate for the most appearances in double-play situations. Of his 641 times at bat, 148 of those were with a runner on first with less than two outs. For those who recall booing him lustily this year, you probably remember that Mauer bounced into 23 double-plays -- an unfortunate byproduct of having ground ball tendencies when pulling. The other side of that coin is that in terms of defensive positioning, this gives the left-handed Mauer a bigger infield hole on that right side and a decisive advantage. In practice, when a left-handed hitter is up, the shortstop will cover second base on a stolen base attempt and allow the second baseman to cheat towards first base while staying the vicinity of the base in the event of a double play ball. In Mauer’s case, his career-long tendency of hitting the ball back up-the-middle has enticed defensive alignments to squeeze him up the middle rather than have the second baseman shade towards his left. Below is an example of this configuration that Mauer faced often. In this instance, the Phillies were up by three and the Twins had runners on the corners with no outs. With the lead, Philadelphia chose to play the middle infield at double play depth, bringing the second baseman in and towards the bag. The first baseman held the runner. This created ample room for a well hit grounder to skip through the right side. And, as such, the Phillies’ left-handed reliever, Antonio Bastardo delivered a pitch on the inner half of the plate and Mauer re-directed it to that vacant space. [ATTACH=CONFIG]2681[/ATTACH] Even taking it a step further and simply having a runner on first is very advantageous for Mauer, regardless if the double play is in order. [ATTACH=CONFIG]2684[/ATTACH] In similar example of Mauer profiting from having a runner on first, in this game against the Indians, the Twins were leading by four in the fourth. Once again, the runners were on the corners. Not wanting to put another runner in scoring position, the Indians held Revere at the bag. Gambling on Mauer’s tendency to use the middle of the field, Indians’ second baseman Jason Kipnis was playing back (which would help cover more ground) but squeezing towards short. Comparatively, when teams do not have to defend against base runner, they were able to play Mauer straight-up in the infield (perhaps cheating their middle infielders towards the center of the diamond). In this case, the Brewers’ second baseman Rickie Weeks is able to play back and first baseman Corey Hart is able to do the same, increasing the defensive coverage and reducing the BABIP odds on grounders to the right side of the field. [ATTACH=CONFIG]2680[/ATTACH] Without a runners on base, Mauer’s average on balls in play has been lower over his career and is 34 points lower than when he has at least a runner on first with less than two outs. This past year his ball in play average was 83 points lower (.333) with no one on versus with a runner on first, less than two outs situation (.416). Theoretically, some of that has to do with his success at directional hitting when given sizable targets in which to aim. Based on his altered batted ball tendencies and the results, it is not far fetched to say that Joe Mauer is using his unequaled bat control to garner a few more hits in those circumstances.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]2651[/ATTACH]Over in Indian Wells, California baseball’s head honchos are engaged in debates regarding rule changes, safety regulations and Ken Rosenthal’s choice of bow ties. In between that and the golfing, teams have been aggressive in their pursuits for available talent. “I’ve been in this business 21 years, and I’ve never seen anything like it,” said pitcher Anibal Sanchez’s agent, Gene Mato of SFX. “This is moving really, really fast.” Even the Twins appear fairly active – at least if you are basing that on their “interest” list. So far, most of the reports emerging from the meetings demonstrated that the Twins are serious about fixing their starting rotation. Yesterday, John Bonnes discussed the potential starting pitching trade options for the Twins, highlighting the Rays and Braves in particular, and Joel Sherman of the NY Post reported that the Twins and Mariners were talking swap. Now, KSTP’s Darren Wolfson compiled an interesting list of players the Twins have had contact with: Brandon McCarthy: Prior to catching on with the A’s, McCarthy was destined to be a flame-out prospect after several seasons with the White Sox and Rangers. If it were not for the early-career arm injuries, McCarthy may never have changed his mechanics which may never have led to the increase in ground balls. He does not miss a ton of bats, but he avoids heavy contact and has kept his home run rate subdued (part of that may have to do with pitching in Oakland). The downside is, with the extensive injury history and the recent blow to the head off the bat of the Erick Aybar, McCarthy has not thrown that many innings raising the question of whether or not he would be able to give a team 30-plus starts. In addition to the Twins, the Cubs are courting the right-hander. Anibal Sanchez: As Wolfson’s source indicated, Sanchez’s asking price may preclude the Twins from actually engaging in serious talks. It was reported last night that the 28-year-old right-hander is seeking a six-year, $90 million deal. Considering that Sanchez is likely the second-best free agent option on the market aside from Zack Greinke and that he is under 30-years-old, there is a strong probability that he could command that kind of cheddar. Ryan Dempster: Reported yesterday by Wolfson, the Twins “inquired” on this 35-year-old free agent. But so too have the Red Sox and now the Milwaukee Brewers. Dempster had success as both a closer and starter for some terrible Cubs teams, and had averaged 206 innings as a starter from 2008 to 2011. In fact, since 2008, he’s had the exact same expected fielding independent pitching number as Jake Peavy (3.73) and has been slightly better in that department than Anibal Sanchez (3.80). Of course, that doesn’t mean he will continue on that path. This past year, he struggled a bit in Texas and has had his velocity drop to sub-90 this year (not a good indicator in the mid-30s). On a one or possibly a two-year deal, Dempster could be an effective addition for Minnesota. Brett Myers: Working on a budget with numerous holes to plug, Terry Ryan will undoubtedly have to get creative in how to get the most out of their available payroll. With that in mind, targeting Brett Myers makes sense. After two consecutive years throwing over 200 innings with the Astros, Houston decided to convert him into a closer. Following a trade to the White Sox Myers, now a free agent, has interest in becoming either a starter or reliever. In terms of performance, Myers has been the archetypical Twins starter: Gets strike one (career 61% first-pitch strike rate), limits walks (career 8% walk rate), is not a strikeout pitcher (at least as a starter). This probably isn’t sexy but he’s done well and, if capable of hitting the 200 innings milestone, he would be a decent number four option in the rotation. Brandon Webb: This falls under the “leave no stone unturned” category. Webb has thrown only 12 real innings since 2009 and that was in the Texas League (AA) in 2011. His shoulder has simply not responded well since his 2009 rotator cuff surgery and that necessitated a second surgery in 2011. Since then, there has been no reports of Webb’s throwing status but considering the surgery was over a year ago, there should be some indication of where he is at velocity-wise. The odds are long but if this former Cy Young winner gets an spring invite and has rediscovered something, who knows. The Twins may ultimately leave California without any new additions to the rotation but obviously the groundwork has been laid. And, as it is rumored, the moves could happen quickly. Stay tuned.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]2634[/ATTACH]Rather than spew out some analysis based on hot stove rumors and theories (which I've already done on Shaun Marcum and Kevin Youkilis, by the way), I thought I would take the opportunity to field some burning questions from the Twins Daily followers via Twitter. On to your questions: Who will be the Twins starting rotation on Opening Day? [@MichaelRHerman] As the Twins have said since the season started winding down in September, Scott Diamond is the only pitcher guaranteed a spot in next year’s rotation. Outside of Diamond, here’s what I envision happening at this point: I see the Twins re-signing Scott Baker, signing one mid-to-low free agent and then trading for a starter. Best optimistic guess at this point? Here’s what I would like to see: 1: James Shields 2: Scott Baker 3: Shaun Marcum/Jeremy Guthrie/Joe Blanton 4: Scott Diamond 5: Internal candidate (Liam Hendriks/Kyle Gibson/Samuel Deduno/Brian Duensing) How’s that? Think there’s any real chance of trading for a strong starter like Buehrle or Shields? [@christopherokey] More so this year than in previous years. I believe the front office is under some pressure from ownership to improve the team in order to avoid seeing a historic decline in revenue during the first five seasons of a new ballpark. Now, I do not believe these to be Steinbrenner-esque directives (“Go out and get be the best-damn pitcher available, money is no object.”) from ownership but Terry Ryan will likely wind up trading a long-time Twin (Denard Span, possibly) and/or someone from the farm system in order to get that piece. Of course, it also matters too what the opposing teams thinks their commodities are worth in return. As much as people like to think the Rays need to unload Shields, they are already shaving off a substantial portion of their payroll (upwards of $20 million), so there is not a need to jettison the pitchers who has thrown the third-most innings in the last three seasons. Rays will likely be looking for a solid return for Shields who has a reasonable $10.25 million left on his contract in addition to a $12 million 2014 team option. I personally like the idea of a Shields acquisition (as you can see by my prediction above) but I just don’t know if the Twins have enough or are willing to part with enough to get him. On the other hand, Buehrle, who has been amazingly consistent and durable for his career, could come less of a ransom than Shields. However, the Marlins have him locked in through 2015 and -- while he is owed a reasonable $11 million in 2013 -- he has $18 million and $19 million coming to him in 2014 and 2015, respectively, as he enters his late-30s. I’m not sure the Twins want to trade away a prime asset for those latter years. Why does Mauer hate hitting home runs? [@DanaWessel] Like most real Minnesotans, Joe Mauer would love to put his head down and just go about his business without all the hoopla. Home runs clearly put undue attention on him while circling the bases from all those cheering fans at the game. Real Minnesotans like Mauer would prefer to slap singles and avoid the showboating. In reality, there is a lot that goes why the sudden spike in 2009 and the complete inability to poke a few shots in to the stands every now and then. First is the external factor of the ballparks which played a significant role in both the increase and the decline. At the Metrodome in 2009 Mauer was feasting on the front row of the left field bleacher seats – hitting 16 of his 28 home runs in that direction. When the Twins moved to Target Field, the outdoor elements and dimensions became extremely restrictive for that kind of power. A ball hit to the right-center gap or center field has difficulty leaving the park. Secondly, his on-going knee issues have undoubtedly drained some power, reducing the amount of drive produced from his lower-half. One interesting note: three of Mauer’s home runs this year have been right down the right field line, not far off of the foul pole. Only one of his home runs dating back to 2008 had been in that region. Perhaps he is starting to figure out what needs to be done in order to hit home runs at Target Field. With another offseason to heal and the additional time away from catching could equate to more “dingers” in 2013. That said don’t expect a big jump, maybe 15 at the most next year. That’s not what most fans want to hear, but Mauer still provides plenty of value with his ability to avoid making outs in over 40% of his plate appearances (one of four hitters in the league this year to do so). Why do former Twins do better outside of the Twins system? (Dickey, Hardy, Lohse, etc) [@brandon_mack] I don’t think this is necessarily true. Yes, there are some players who realize their potential after leaving the organization but it is not because of something the team is or is not doing with these players. Most of the time it the improvement is up to the individual not the organization. What’s more is that in the case of the three players you named, other organizations could also claim the same thing. In the case of R.A. Dickey, he was still very much attempting to refine his knuckleball – a pitch he had just picked up two seasons before arriving to the Twins. He did not have his mastery of knuck then, rarely getting opponents to chase the pitch out of the strike zone or induce silly-looking swings. Both the Rangers and the Brewers gave up on Dickey. J.J. Hardy was not completely healthy (which may or may not have been a testament to the training staff) and he did not focus on pulling the ball (which may or may not have been hitting coach related). When he got to Baltimore, he got healthy, got focused on turning on pitches and was in an environment that was more conducive to hitting home runs. With Lohse, both the Reds and the Phillies had Lohse without reaping the same benefits that the Cardinals just had with his 2012 season. In short, I do not believe there is some internal issues that is causing the Twins to fail to identify future performance – at least, no more so than any other team. Who is the best long-term option at 1B? Morneau, Parmelee or other. [@MikeAmundsen] With Justin Morneau in his early 30’s and teeming with various injuries, it’s not him. Hulking first baseman with injury tendencies do not age well – in fact it typically accelerates. Take Travis Hafner, for example. Until the age of 30, Pronk was having an outstanding career and even receiving MVP votes. After 30, his big body began to breakdown rapidly and frequently, resulting in a significant decline in his numbers: Age 25-30: 112 games per year, .290/.393/.552, 142 HRs Age 31-35: 86 games per year, .259/.353/.436, 59 HRs Because of that, I do not see the Twins retaining Morneau beyond his current contract. Parmelee is still young, intriguing but is unproven over the course of an entire season at the major league level. His 2012 season at Rochester -- one in which he had the league’s second-highest isolated power average (minimum 250 plate appearances) – raising eyebrows that he can develop into a player with some legit power. As Terry Ryan said in the Offseason Handbook, the Twins appear committed to putting Parmelee in the lineup somewhere this year. It may be in right to begin with, but after next season, he could be the team’s first baseman for the next several years. Of course, the real key to the Twins long-term plans at first base will be Mauer. Already seeing some time at first, he has looked comfortable at the defensive-side of the position and could eventually be there for the duration of his contract once squatting is out of the question. Who are the number one suitors for [Denard] Span? Does Gibson start the season with the big league club? [@dropshotbob] It looks like the Rays maybe the top suitors for Span. Tampa has not outright expressed interest, but Span is certainly a logical fit, what with his good defense, good plate discipline and good contract, plus, because B.J. Upton is likely to leave via free agency, Span is almost a natural target. If he doesn’t end up there, Atlanta is another team looking for center field help. Unless something happens to Kyle Gibson between now and spring training, he’s likely on an inside track to start the season with the Twins – probably in the bullpen where the team can limit his innings and monitor his progress as he adapts to major league hitters and wraps his head around pitching in double-decker stadiums. If Buxton doesn’t pan out as a positional player, chance #Twins try him as a pitcher? Reports were mid-hi 90’s in HS. [@Aaron_jenkins] This topic has come up with Aaron Hicks as well, who purportedly threw in the low 90s in high school like Buxton. So far, there are no indications that Buxton is headed for a bust – after all, he was both the Gulf Coast League and Appalachian League’s number one prospect overall as an 18-year-old. However, if for whatever reason, he winds up unable to climb up the system as a hitter, I would definitely want the Twins to consider seeing if he can be converted to a pitcher. In fact, any and all positional prospects who have an arm should be given the opportunity to see if they can throw off a mound before being given their walking papers. In a piece at Deadspin.com, Jack Dickey spoke to St Louis Cardinals’ farm director John Vuch and that organizations methods for dealing with prospects with great arms who end up unable to catch on as a hitter: How are my Red Sox gonna look next year? [@MinnesotaRonin] Much like the Twins, the 2012 Red Sox had extensive troubles with their pitching staff – at least in the earned runs department. Boston allowed 754 earned runs, finishing one behind the Twins in that category and third most in the American League. And, like the Twins, things didn’t quite work out as planned, either. Two of their starters, Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz, had down years. Lester’s season was much more unexpected as the lefty had emerged as the team’s number one-type arm but a decline in strikeouts and an increase in his average on balls in play resulted in more runs. Josh Beckett’s fastball velocity dropped from 93.1 in 2011 to 91.4 in 2012 which opponents made much better contact on. So they wind up dishing out 94 innings to guys like Aaron Cook, who never met a bat he couldn’t hit. In fact, Cook’s 4.9% strikeout rate was the lowest among any starter with a minimum of 90 innings dating since the Mariners’ Glenn Abbott posted the same rate in 1979. But, unlike the Twins, the Red Sox have a ton of financial freedom – and that gives them the ability to fix things quick. In addition to an already high revenue stream, thanks to the unloading of Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez and Josh Beckett (and I suppose Nick Punto too), this has freed up approximately $60 million of payroll to rectify the pitching problem, grab an outfield bat and perhaps bail out the auto industry as well. So far, the Sox have been tied to a bevy of free agent including Dan Haren and Scott Baker among others, who would go along with the existing arms of Lester, Buccholz, Felix Doubront and John Lackey. And rumor is the Sox are looking at former Twin Torii Hunter as well. By the way, if you would like to participate in the next round of questions, follow me on Twitter (@OverTheBaggy) and fire me any or all Twins/baseball-related inquiries.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]2605[/ATTACH]If you were going to create a list of the Twins' offseason needs, you would likely write in big, bold letters STARTING PITCHING and underline it twice and put some exclamation points next to it for safe measure. Clearly this area of the team put the Twins in significant default night after night. Shackled to the American League's worst earned run average (5.40), the focal point of the front office will be to beg,borrow and steal anything they can that can help deflate that unsightly statistic and give the team an opportunity to win games in 2013. For the most part, this means throwing whatever free cash at a consistent starter or two and potentially trading away a key member of the team in order to acquire more. While the starting pitching problem was so big it could be seen from space, perhaps somewhat surprising is what the Twins viewed as their second biggest need is. During an interview with TwinsDaily.com's John Bonnes, Twins general manager Terry Ryan told the incredulous Bonnes that finding more relief pitching was next in line. This is interesting for several reasons. Whereas the starting rotation was obviously downright horrendous, the Twins bullpen actually fared well. A pessimist might say that the relief staff's success may be due to the fact that by the time Ron Gardenhire dipped into his 'pen, the opposing team was too tuckered out from all the home run-hitting and base-circling to put forth any real effort. An optimist, on the other hand, would point out that guys like Glen Perkins, Jared Burton and Brian Duensing formed a solid core of late innings options. And,given that those three members will be back in 2013, there would seem to be fewer vital roles to fill in the bullpen which helps redirect the resources back to the starting pitching. Here's another thing: The cost of relief pitching could get scary expensive. Early this week, the Dodgers made a somewhat surprising move when they extended right-handed reliever Brandon League with a three-year, $22.5 million deal, giving him short of $8 million per year. The hard-throwing 31-year-old comes equipped with the “proven closer”label which may help explain some of the need to pay out that much, but his walk rate has fluctuated that it may be hard to sit still with him on the mound in a close game. While that may seem like a steep price, there may be some logic behind why League received $7.5 million per year. In a candid interview,Cleveland Indians team president and former general manager Mark Sharpiro told Fox Sport Ohio's Pat McManamon that, based on growing revenue streams, the cost of purchasing one “win” on the free agent market has increased from $8 million just a few years ago to $9 million this year. Per the interview: So,applying this logic to League's contract, we find that over the last three seasons he has accumulated 2.5 wins above replacement which averages out to 0.8 wins above replacement per year. If a team were to purchase that on an open market, that would cost $7.2 million – just shy of the average annual value of League's actual contract of$7.5 million. Provided League performs at or better than his last three seasons, the contract may actually wind up right on the money and not nearly as insane as the initial reactions. Then again, if League under-performs or gets injured, the contract could blow up in their face. Needless to say, most teams have to feel confident in their projections in order to dish out $9 million per win on the free agent market. That,or have Scrooge McDuck-type of money. Stupidly rich teams like the Dodgers have the luxury of committing that volume of money to a set-up man/closer and walking away financially unscathed if something goes wrong. Not every team in baseball will be looking to pay the going rate of a relief pitcher. The Twins will need to be smart with their investments and, given their track record of eschewing long-term contracts to free agents and avoiding marquee ones, there are no indications that they would chase any free agent down that rabbit hole. Outside of the top relief arms who can anticipate multi-year contracts, there are several players who may be acquired for fewer than three years.There is Kyle Farnsworth who pitched well as Tampa Bay's closer but elbow soreness truncated his 2012 season. Likewise, Jason Frasor also battled an elbow injury but struck out 53 in 43.2 innings thanks to a dirty slider. Mark Lowe, a member of the Rangers and Mariners bullpen, can bring some heat and miss bats but a non-arm related injury (intercoastal) sidetracked this past season. Those are just three of the bargain rate right-handed arms that could be available for the Twins. Heck, if bridges aren't burnt, Pat Neshek, who threw frisbee after frisbee in Oakland, seems to have rediscovered his command and would be a solid option for a season. These kind of arms may give you the same wins above replacement value but will not likely require the $9 million pay out. While the more statistically inclined organizations like the Indians may run numbers on everyone until their word processors explode, the Twins have proven quite adept at nabbing arms who require a bit more scouting acumen over the stats. Well, that, and the sheer numbers game. The Twins philosophy when it comes to relief pitching appears to stem from Branch Rickey's farm system mantra: From quantity comes quality. Last year the Twins signed a bushel of low cost minor league relief arms including Jared Burton, Jason Bulger, Luis Perdomo, Casey Fein and Joel Zumaya. Of the five, Burton emerged as a legitimate hurler while Fein threw well in the final two months of the season. Expect Terry Ryan and the Twins to be very active in the reliever market,just don't anticipate them to pay the going rate. After all, there are bigger fish to fry.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]2551[/ATTACH]The worst kept secret in baseball is that teams need an abundance of starting pitching. Like crack, you can never have enough. Also, pitching, like crack, can be an expensive endeavor – particularly when you need a lot of it. And this is exactly the position the Twins are in so said the team’s general manager, Terry Ryan, during his offseason apology tour. In a recent interview with Twins Daily’s John Bonnes, Ryan admitted that his financial resources may keep the team from chasing the Zack Greinke’s of the world (shocker), but the team will be scouring the market for top of the rotation help. (The interview’s entirety can be found the Offseason Handbook in which Ryan expands on this topic and many more.) If the team is looking to maximize the return on a smaller investment, one such arm Ryan should be zeroing in on in the free agent market is the 30-year-old Shawn Marcum. If you were looking just at the radar gun, you would likely be nonplussed at Marcum’s fastball. Indeed, his 87.2-mph fastball over his career would incite plenty to label him yet another soft-tossing pitcher. After all, he shares the same career fastball velocity as one flame-thrower Bruce Chen. Recognizing his weakness Marcum uses his fastball extremely sparingly. Dating back to 2007, outside of the knuckleballers, only Roy Halladay (33.8%) has used his fastball less frequently than Marcum (38.2%). Once he gets ahead in the count – which we has more often than not – hitters have a better odds of seeing Halley’s Comet than his fastball. And it is his plethora of off-speed and breaking pitches that makes him so impossible to make contact against. Again, since 2007, Marcum has registered the sixth-highest swinging strike rate in baseball behind such luminaries as Cole Hamels, Johan Santana, CC Sabathia, Tim Lincecum, Ryan Dempster and Max Scherzer. That’s right: He missed more bats than Justin Verlander. Now, this has not translated into a ton of strikeouts but it shows that he is consistently confounding opponents. What makes Marcum so effective in spite of the town ball-level velocity is his ability to keep the fastball away off the plate while mixing in a variety of pitches and speeds that make hitters’ heads’ spin. Take a look at this year’s heat map of his pitch location: [ATTACH=CONFIG]2550[/ATTACH] To both sides, he served every down and away. The reason this is noteworthy is because this area is perhaps the most difficult for a hitter to square up and certainly one of the hardest areas to pull consistently. Furthermore, Marcum’s ability to change speeds to the mid-70s to 80 back to the upper 80s on almost any pitch keeps opponents from cheating on the outer-half. As we have seen at Target Field, it can reward hitters who can yank pitches into the right and left field stands thus having someone who keeps the ball away from those looking to do heavy damage is in the Twins’ best interest. In short, his ability to miss bats and keep hitters from pulling the ball with lethal intent would play very favorably as a potentially number two starter in Minnesota. So, what are the odds the Twins could end up with him? The Royals, Cubs and Blue Jays all may be landing places for Marcum. In fact, in an interview with a Toronto radio station, Marcum expressed interest in returning to the Blue Jays where he had been a member of the organization from when he was drafted in 2003 until being traded to the Brewers after the 2010 season. Marcum said that he would welcome a homecoming to his original team in part because of the coaching and training staff which he had a strong relationship. Presumably, Marcum’s past injury history (Tommy John in 2008) and recent flare up in Milwaukee this year (right elbow tenderness with required a trip to the 60-day DL) will likely drop his stock among all suitors. Even the Brewers, who have seen him up close and are just a year removed from a 200-inning season, have maintained radio silence with him and his agent. This probably does not bode well for his immediate financial future. As a result, his price range is likely going to fall towards more of a one-year plus incentives in order to rebuild his value while still in his early 30s (he’ll be 31 in December), at which point he can explore a longer, more lucrative deal on the market. The Twins have plenty of holes to fill and, sad to admit, a finite budget, therefore a one-year deal for a pitcher of Shawn Marcum’s caliber would be in Terry Ryan’s best interest.

As Seth Stohs mentioned yesterday, while the rest of us at Twins Daily were all stark raving mad about Kyle Gibson’s performance in the Arizona Fall League, another Twins prospect was making noise even further south. Outfielder Aaron Hicks, who is playing winthttp://apps.startribune.com/blogs/fckeditor/editor/images/spacer.gifer ball in Venezuela, is off to a fast start this offseason, matching the expectation he set from his in-season performance at New Britain. Of course, not long ago, Hicks was in danger of falling off the “top prospect” radar although. Heading into the 2011 season, Baseball America dropped him from 19TH to 45TH despite a terrific first full season at the low-A level in Beloit. Then, as if Baseball America’s rankings had influence, Hicks lost some power and over 30 points in the batting average at Ft Myers the following year. The criticism on Hicks’s approach is that he could be too passive at times. Hicks boasts a high strikeout rate and a significant portion of those (39%) in 2011 were of the caught-looking variety, an indication that he was not aggressive enough with two strikes on him. Of course, the other side of the coin is that it has led to a 14% career minor league walk rate – a solid pillar supporting his .379 on-base percentage. While walks are en vogue with OBP-ers, there are those in the system who would like to see him use his six-foot-two athletic frame to transfer some power into the ball. His 2010 season at Beloit had him smacking eight home runs but that total dwindled down to five after his foray with the Miracle in Fort Myers. Part of the reason for the drop off simply had to do with the offensive difficulty of the Florida State League. As the Star Tribune’s Phil Miller explained this year, hitting is dern tough way down south: When he transitioned from high-A ball in the Florida State League to an even more polished level of competition of the double-A Eastern League, rather than being buried by the tougher pitching Hicks elevated his game. His matriculation to double-A ball could have also been a hindrance - given the significant leap in talent - but Hicks did not allow it. He hit a healthy .286/.384/.460 with 13 home runs. Where did this production come from? Was it simply a course correction after leaving the Florida State League or did Hicks make adjustments elsewhere? Being a switch-hitter, Hicks has had two sides of the plate in which to polish his mechanics and both have undergone some interesting transformations since 2011. Hicks from the right: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/theeight_1350623225_AaronHicks.jpg While the angles and the graininess of the 2012 minor league camera shot do not provide the highest quality to judge these two stances on, there are some things that you can derive without having the same shot side-by-side. The first is where his hands are set pre-swing. While he has a similar hold, in these two pictures you can see that his elbows/hands are lower during his time with the Miracle (left) then they were with the Rock Cats (right). This may sound like a minute detail but elevated hands, in theory, create more leverage by engaging the top hand. For a line drive/ground ball hitter, this equates to harder hit balls, perhaps as easily identifiable as his spike in isolated power (from .124 in 2011 to .173 in 2012) and a big jump in batting average on balls in play (from .308 to .346). The second difference between 2011 Hicks and 2012 Hicks is the lowered stance with the deeper knee bend. This compacted stance figures to generate more power from his hips and lower half. In addition to the higher hand set this, according to minorleaguecentral.com, has lead to a higher fly ball rate from the right-side (from 29% in 2011 to 39% in 2012) and more home runs (from 3 to 7). Hicks from the left: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/AaronHicks_Left_1.jpg The same disclaimer from above applies to this one as well: the angle and the graininess distort some perception and do not provide a crystal clear view to compare fully. As opposed to the shots above, these two images are of Hicks striding from the left-hand side. The first thing that stands out is where his hands are had at the loaded position. In the (left), his hands are lower and, judging by the angle, closer to his body. In the 2012 version (right), his hands are slightly higher and away from his body. This should give him a quicker path to the ball.Interestingly, when Hicks was first drafted, he had a severely long swing from the left side (which you can see in this pre-draft swing .gif here). His hands were significantly higher which led to an elongated swing. So these modifications are simply the evolution in shortening that swing. Also, similar to the aforementioned right-hand side, he is also compacted more which gives leaves him able to generate power from the lower-half better. The alterations made have led to a higher line drive rate (from 13% to 19%) and more power (from 2 home runs to 6) from this side of the plate. **** This should be viewed as very positive development for the 23 year old prospect. Along with his above average defense – including his exceptional arm in the outfield – Hicks has reaffirmed the belief that he is an elite prospect after putting up terrific numbers in double-A. With some seasoning in Rochester schedule for this year, if this progress continues, Hicks could quickly make his way into the Twins outfield.

As Seth Stohs mentioned yesterday, while the rest of us at Twins Daily were all stark raving mad about Kyle Gibson’s performance in the Arizona Fall League, another Twins prospect was making noise even further south. Outfielder Aaron Hicks, who is playing winthttp://apps.startribune.com/blogs/fckeditor/editor/images/spacer.gifer ball in Venezuela, is off to a fast start this offseason, matching the expectation he set from his in-season performance at New Britain. Of course, not long ago, Hicks was in danger of falling off the “top prospect” radar although. Heading into the 2011 season, Baseball America dropped him from 19TH to 45TH despite a terrific first full season at the low-A level in Beloit. Then, as if Baseball America’s rankings had influence, Hicks lost some power and over 30 points in the batting average at Ft Myers the following year. The criticism on Hicks’s approach is that he could be too passive at times. Hicks boasts a high strikeout rate and a significant portion of those (39%) in 2011 were of the caught-looking variety, an indication that he was not aggressive enough with two strikes on him. Of course, the other side of the coin is that it has led to a 14% career minor league walk rate – a solid pillar supporting his .379 on-base percentage. While walks are en vogue with OBP-ers, there are those in the system who would like to see him use his six-foot-two athletic frame to transfer some power into the ball. His 2010 season at Beloit had him smacking eight home runs but that total dwindled down to five after his foray with the Miracle in Fort Myers. Part of the reason for the drop off simply had to do with the offensive difficulty of the Florida State League. As the Star Tribune’s Phil Miller explained this year, hitting is dern tough way down south: When he transitioned from high-A ball in the Florida State League to an even more polished level of competition of the double-A Eastern League, rather than being buried by the tougher pitching Hicks elevated his game. His matriculation to double-A ball could have also been a hindrance - given the significant leap in talent - but Hicks did not allow it. He hit a healthy .286/.384/.460 with 13 home runs. Where did this production come from? Was it simply a course correction after leaving the Florida State League or did Hicks make adjustments elsewhere? Being a switch-hitter, Hicks has had two sides of the plate in which to polish his mechanics and both have undergone some interesting transformations since 2011. Hicks from the right: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/theeight_1350623225_AaronHicks.jpg While the angles and the graininess of the 2012 minor league camera shot do not provide the highest quality to judge these two stances on, there are some things that you can derive without having the same shot side-by-side. The first is where his hands are set pre-swing. While he has a similar hold, in these two pictures you can see that his elbows/hands are lower during his time with the Miracle (left) then they were with the Rock Cats (right). This may sound like a minute detail but elevated hands, in theory, create more leverage by engaging the top hand. For a line drive/ground ball hitter, this equates to harder hit balls, perhaps as easily identifiable as his spike in isolated power (from .124 in 2011 to .173 in 2012) and a big jump in batting average on balls in play (from .308 to .346). The second difference between 2011 Hicks and 2012 Hicks is the lowered stance with the deeper knee bend. This compacted stance figures to generate more power from his hips and lower half. In addition to the higher hand set this, according to minorleaguecentral.com, has lead to a higher fly ball rate from the right-side (from 29% in 2011 to 39% in 2012) and more home runs (from 3 to 7). Hicks from the left: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/AaronHicks_Left_1.jpg The same disclaimer from above applies to this one as well: the angle and the graininess distort some perception and do not provide a crystal clear view to compare fully. As opposed to the shots above, these two images are of Hicks striding from the left-hand side. The first thing that stands out is where his hands are had at the loaded position. In the (left), his hands are lower and, judging by the angle, closer to his body. In the 2012 version (right), his hands are slightly higher and away from his body. This should give him a quicker path to the ball.Interestingly, when Hicks was first drafted, he had a severely long swing from the left side (which you can see in this pre-draft swing .gif here). His hands were significantly higher which led to an elongated swing. So these modifications are simply the evolution in shortening that swing. Also, similar to the aforementioned right-hand side, he is also compacted more which gives leaves him able to generate power from the lower-half better. The alterations made have led to a higher line drive rate (from 13% to 19%) and more power (from 2 home runs to 6) from this side of the plate. **** This should be viewed as very positive development for the 23 year old prospect. Along with his above average defense – including his exceptional arm in the outfield – Hicks has reaffirmed the belief that he is an elite prospect after putting up terrific numbers in double-A. With some seasoning in Rochester schedule for this year, if this progress continues, Hicks could quickly make his way into the Twins outfield.

Just over a year removed from his Tommy John surgery, Twins pitching prospect Kyle Gibson has made two encouraging starts in Arizona, firing 92-to-95-mph bullets and keeping the game’s top prospects off-balanced with an 83-86-mph slider. That’s right: Hitting 95 miles per hour according to the Pitch F/X system in Arizona. Let’s take a look at why his AFL performance should give Twins fans hope. According to MLB.com, Gibson has been aware of the velocity increase and views it as a positive sign: According to BrooksBaseball.net, Gibson’s fastball/sinker combination was caught at the 2011 Futures Game registering 91.8/91.3-mile per hour, respectively, by the Pitch F/X cameras. So far in the Arizona Fall League this year, those same pitches are averaging 93.3/93.2 miles per hour, very much up a “tick.” Gibson said he had been working on refining his mechanics, something that was critiqued at the time of his draft, and that is one factor behind the added velocity: In addition to throwing with a newly insert ligament, Gibson has had time to smooth out those rough spots in his motion. During the time of Nationals’ phenom Stephen Strasburg’s rehab, the notion of added velocity for some TJ survivors was credited to several factors including conditioning applied during the recovery period as well as the down time allotted pitchers to scrutinize and improve mechanics. But those radar gun readings are not the only thing that has made Gibson’s “sinker” (actually a two-seamer) so incredibly hard to square up on. In spring of 2011, prior to his ligament snapping, Gibson was turning heads in camp with this pitch’s action. Back then, the Star Tribune’s La Velle Neal wrote that he could “throw at a left-handed hitter’s hip and watch it break toward the inside corner.” The movement displayed by this pitch is quite impressive. Check out the pitcher’s arm side run that this one takes during spring practice to Mauer in 2011: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/theeight_1298869473_Gibson_TwoSeamer.gif Coupling with the movement and velocity of his ground-ball inducing sinker is his swing-and-miss generating slider – a slider that was christened by Baseball America in January as the “best” slider in the Twins’ system. In two starts in Arizona this fall, Gibson’s slider has induced 15 missed bats on 22 swings (34 sliders overall). Here comes the obvious precursory small sample size warning applies with 34 pitches but his 68% whiffs/swing would top the Baseball Prospectus’ Pitch F/X Leaderboard, as the next closest would be Zach Britton at 52%. Don’t be fooled by the raving scouting report above – it would be unwise of the front office to head into the 2013 satisfied they have found another internal candidate to carry them through 200 innings. However, if the Twins are able to coax Gibson through the fall, winter and spring without any setbacks, given his display of above-average stuff, he undoubtedly could be a valuable part of the rotation in some capacity.

Just over a year removed from his Tommy John surgery, Twins pitching prospect Kyle Gibson has made two encouraging starts in Arizona, firing 92-to-95-mph bullets and keeping the game’s top prospects off-balanced with an 83-86-mph slider. That’s right: Hitting 95 miles per hour according to the Pitch F/X system in Arizona. Let’s take a look at why his AFL performance should give Twins fans hope. According to MLB.com, Gibson has been aware of the velocity increase and views it as a positive sign: According to BrooksBaseball.net, Gibson’s fastball/sinker combination was caught at the 2011 Futures Game registering 91.8/91.3-mile per hour, respectively, by the Pitch F/X cameras. So far in the Arizona Fall League this year, those same pitches are averaging 93.3/93.2 miles per hour, very much up a “tick.” Gibson said he had been working on refining his mechanics, something that was critiqued at the time of his draft, and that is one factor behind the added velocity: In addition to throwing with a newly insert ligament, Gibson has had time to smooth out those rough spots in his motion. During the time of Nationals’ phenom Stephen Strasburg’s rehab, the notion of added velocity for some TJ survivors was credited to several factors including conditioning applied during the recovery period as well as the down time allotted pitchers to scrutinize and improve mechanics. But those radar gun readings are not the only thing that has made Gibson’s “sinker” (actually a two-seamer) so incredibly hard to square up on. In spring of 2011, prior to his ligament snapping, Gibson was turning heads in camp with this pitch’s action. Back then, the Star Tribune’s La Velle Neal wrote that he could “throw at a left-handed hitter’s hip and watch it break toward the inside corner.” The movement displayed by this pitch is quite impressive. Check out the pitcher’s arm side run that this one takes during spring practice to Mauer in 2011: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/theeight_1298869473_Gibson_TwoSeamer.gif Coupling with the movement and velocity of his ground-ball inducing sinker is his swing-and-miss generating slider – a slider that was christened by Baseball America in January as the “best” slider in the Twins’ system. In two starts in Arizona this fall, Gibson’s slider has induced 15 missed bats on 22 swings (34 sliders overall). Here comes the obvious precursory small sample size warning applies with 34 pitches but his 68% whiffs/swing would top the Baseball Prospectus’ Pitch F/X Leaderboard, as the next closest would be Zach Britton at 52%. Don’t be fooled by the raving scouting report above – it would be unwise of the front office to head into the 2013 satisfied they have found another internal candidate to carry them through 200 innings. However, if the Twins are able to coax Gibson through the fall, winter and spring without any setbacks, given his display of above-average stuff, he undoubtedly could be a valuable part of the rotation in some capacity.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]2498[/ATTACH]For the past four years, we have produced an Offseason Handbook to put fans in the driver’s seat of the Twins franchise. Within it, we highlight all of the winter’s impending free agents, potential trade targets and review the organization’s strengths and weaknesses from top to bottom. This culminates with the presentation of our blueprints to improving the team. In my blueprint, I laid out a fairly elementary explanation as to why the Twins failed so miserably in 2012 and, no, it was not a six-word piece that read “JOE MAUER SHOULD HEET MOR DINGERS.” While the starting pitching takes precedence and priority, the secondary issue was that scoring runs was also a weak spot for the 2012 squad. Consider this: Only three other American League teams finished with a lower runs per game average than the Minnesota Twins (Seattle, Cleveland and Kansas City). After focusing on repairing the rotation, I outlined several realistic moves that should help elevate the number of runs scored for next season but the move I would like to discuss here is this: Sign Kevin Youkilis. Yes, there is a huge hurdle to clear when it comes to Youkilis and that is his impending option for $12 million which the White Sox hold the rights to. Collectively, because of that hefty payday and his lackluster performance in 2012, we decided that Chicago will opt to pass and allow him to become a free agent. At which point, we estimate that the market will put him in the two-year, $14 million range (or perhaps even a one year, make-good type of contract). Across the board, Youk’s 2012 production was at the lowest levels of his career. His power was down, his average was down and his on-base percentage was down. Even the mighty Greek God of Walks’ walks were down. It could be based on an age-related decline or something mechanical lurking in that funky swing of his, however, if you are basing just purely on his batted ball rates, there is indication that 2013 may see a change for the better. For the most part, Youkilis’s batting ball rates were consistent with his career. His line drive rate was high but he had been hitting a higher percentage of ground balls the past two seasons and those did not find nearly as many holes in the infield as they once did (hence the significant decline in average and OBP). This resulted in a 54 point difference in his batting average on balls in play versus his career norm. Even if he maintains the higher ground ball rate and equals his near 20% line drive rate, he should experience some correction in those numbers. For a guy who sprays the field in all directions regularly, Youkilis also has some pretty significant pull power. From 2008 to 2011, his .899 slugging percentage when yanking the ball was the fourth best in baseball, ahead of even Josh Willingham. Additionally, Youk’s numbers against left-handed pitching in that time was also among the best in the game. His 1.044 OPS in those years facing wrong-handers was the third-highest behind just Albert Pujols and David Wright. Admittedly, a lot of that power is derived from feasting on the close proximity of the Green Monster but even still, Youkilis had success on the road as well. Obviously there are shortcomings when it comes to signing Youkilis. For starters, it denigrates the defense. Heading into his mid-30s, his glove work is not what it used to be. Likewise, as you will find in the blueprint, the subsequent move after signing Youk would be that Trevor Plouffe would be relocated to second base. Once again this downgrades the infield defense (and potentially increases the amount of souvenir balls thrown into the first base stands) but should increase the production in the lineup by putting a power-hitting second baseman in the order. If he indeed bounces back, Youk’s addition would give the Twins the capabilities of moving Mauer up to the two-spot and insert a high quality right-handed bat with impressive on-base skills to, ultimately, score more runs. If you purchase the Offseason Handbook (which you can download a free preview by clicking the link), you will read more about that specific move as well as other recommendations to improve the team. Not only do we provide our blueprints but we supply you with teems of information on the free agent, potential trade targets and the organization from top-to-bottom to allow you to create your own blueprint for success.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]2468[/ATTACH]Joe Mauer hit just one infield fly ball all year making his 1.0% infield fly rate the second lowest in all of baseball. That’s a significant increase over his totals last year when he did not hit a single fly ball to anyone in the infield. See, there is still plenty of reason to boo him. Mauer is often credited with having the perfect swing, and the fact that he is not popping pitches up to the second baseman is telling how square he hits the ball. That said Twins fans rarely saw this elusive perfect swing this year as his 35.4% swing rate was the lowest in baseball (compared to the 46% league average). Once again, Mauer led baseball by swinging at just 8% of total first pitches thrown to him. With that reputation, rumor has it that Hollywood is tapping Mauer to star in the latest action movie sequel,Taken 3: The First Pitch. 32 times this year Denard Span was on second base when a double was hit – the most in baseball. I don’t know what it means but it is provocative. Speaking of Span, because he was caught looking in a baseball-high 48% of his strikeouts, he receives baseball’s 2012 Voyeurism Award for liking to watch so much. Josh Willingham had an incredible power year for the Twins – dropping 35 dingers on the crowd. That’s more than anyone in one season in a Twins uniform not named “Killebrew”. But, with great power comes great responsibility…and then some strikeouts. The Hammer came perilously close to breaking another dubious honor: At 141 strikeouts on the year, he was just five shy of overtaking Bobby Darwin as the Twins’ single-season strikeout king. Darwin had set that mark of 145 in 1972. Willingham is probably voting for Mitt Romney this election because, like Romney, he too enjoyed destroying lefties: his 15 home runs were tied with Chicago’s Adam Dunn for the most off of wrong-handed pitchers. Even though Willingham had the highest total, it was Justin Morneau who put on the display. According to HitTrackerOnline.com, Morneau had top three longest home runs hit this season in terms of “true distance” which went 451, 448 and 439 feet respectively. According to Baseball-Reference.com, Ben Revere’s 43 infield hits were tops in the American League. This is not surprising due to (A) his speed and ( his 67% ground ball rate. The real question is, are we sure he’s hitting the ball on those and not just catching it and throwing it as far as he can? Can we re-check the video in slo-mo? Swinging to contact? The offense paced baseball with an 82% contact rate on their swings. Span and Revere were a regular Murderer’s Row for contact, putting the bat on the ball in 92% of their swings. Defensively, the Twins ability to control the run game was atrocious. Whether you want to blame it on the pitching staff for not holding runners or the catchers for being unable to throw them out, the Twins were able to throw out 15 would-be base-stealers on 135 attempts. Only Pittsburgh threw out fewer base-stealers (14). The Twins starters threw more than 100 pitches in just 29 starts this year. Only the hapless Rockies had fewer starts (15) with going over the century mark. (Editor’s note: Depressed yet?) How about that pitching to contact philosophy? The 2012 rotation excelled in that department. Fangraphs.com says their 83.9% contact rate was the highest in baseball. Unfortunately for the Twins, it was not glancing blows, either. The starters had the worst production out of their fastballs so says Fangraphs.com’s Pitch Value warehouse. The Twins starters’ fastballs were collectively -89.2 runs below average. That’s how you don’t make it to 100 pitches in a night… The Twins pitching staff surrendered 23 “No Doubt” home runs. Those are categorized at HitTrackerOnline.com as those which the “ball cleared the fence by at least 20 vertical feet AND landed at least 50 feet past the fence.” Cole DeVries led all pitchers with five No Doubters allowed. The Twins’ 541 strikeouts by their starting pitching staff were, bar none, the least in baseball. Yet, that’s not even the worst performance Minnesota fans have witnessed by their rotation. In club history, it ranks as the 11th lowest strikeout mark (excluding strike-shortened seasons). So, yeah, itcould have been worse. Scott Diamond may have been the Pitcher of the Year for the Twins but he did not get that title by missing bats. According to Pitch F/X, his four-seam fastball induced a swing-and-miss just 6.1% of the time, the lowest the game this year. On the flip side, opponents beat that pitch into the ground 58% of the time, the second-highest rate behind teammate Samuel Deduno. What may have made his fastball that effect was how much he worked in his 11-to-5 curveball. Diamond spun his hook 29.1% of the time, making him the pitcher to use his curveball the most in the American League. The Twins used 25 pitchers this year, a new franchise record. Correction: The Twins used 24 pitchers this year and one Drew Butura. That number topped last year’s previous record of 24. The bullpen was a fairly bright spot this year and overlooked among Glen Perkins and Jared Burton’s solid seasons is the work done by Brian Duensing. Although he can be a human pitching machine when he starts, in the pen he’s nearly unhittable. This season, he allowed just one home run in relief making his 0.16 home runs allowed per nine innings the third lowest in the game and the second lowest for the Twins in the past twenty years. Only Tom Eden’s 0.12 in 1992 bests the Duenslinger’s total. That’s your useless Tom Eden trivia for the year. Nick Blackburn’s 7.39 ERA as a starter in 2012 is tied with Jim Deshaies (1994) as the worst Twins ERA with a minimum of 90 innings pitched. On that note, if you are interested in reading more about the 2012 Twins team and how to improve the 2013 squad, Twins Daily now has the 2013 Offseason Handbook ready for pre-order. If you order now, you can save yourself some cash in the process.