Parker Hageman

Last night saw a near vintage Francisco Liriano carving up his now former team. In six innings of work, the lefty punched out eight Twins batters, showcasing a well-placed 94 mile per hour fastball and a devastating slide piece. It was this first weapon, the well-placed fastball, which would have been inconceivable in the season’s opening months. Liriano’s first half of the season was marred by lack of command of his fastball. Unable to get ahead of hitters properly, the left-hander was forced to ease up on his usage of his slider. In his first stint as a starter, opponents smacked him around to the tune of .346/.435/.589 while allowing six home runs in six starts and 26.2 innings pitched. The home runs allowed were a direct result of Liriano being unable to induce ground balls are easily as he did in the past. With fastballs up in the zone, Liriano’s ground ball-to-fly ball ratio sat at 0.69 which, heading into this season, sat at a much higher grounder rate of 0.96. As you will see, Liriano’s fastball location had a lot to do with his mechanics. Over his career one of Liriano’s biggest struggles seemed to be battling against his delivery. His short-arm action, the various tempos and, of course, his tendency to spin out after landing have been trademarks of his style. At times, he will be able to corral this mess into some conformity and consistency for an extended period of time that will lead to strong numbers – such as in 2010. At other points, like at the beginning of the season, he will be in an utter tailspin and be completely lost when it comes to his motion. What we saw during his first stretch of starts this year was Liriano pulling his weight away from home plate and towards the third base side. This movement away from the target likely caused numerous problems for his command. In this early season match-up against Evan Longoria of the Rays, Joe Mauer sits down and in with a target at Longoria’s knees: [ATTACH=CONFIG]1728[/ATTACH] Instead of painting that spot, Liriano’s offering travels up, slightly above the belt, over the plate: [ATTACH=CONFIG]1727[/ATTACH] With a pitch that high in the zone, Liriano is not likely to induce many ground balls. For his part, Longoria smacked this one for a double. What’s more, with a target miss that significant, you can see why he walked 19 batters in 26.2 innings. Fast forward to Tuesday night. Now in uniform with his new team, Liriano had been working on an impressive stretch of outings in which his strikeout rate was up, his walk rate was down and his ground ball rate had increased. Including yesterday’s performance, over his last 12 starts, Liriano has held opponents to a .189/.285/.301 batting line with a very good 87/33 K/BB ratio in 72 innings pitched while only allowing six home runs (three of which came in his start against Chicago). Because of his ability to command his fastball early and often, Liriano has been able to use his slider more, resulting in more swing and misses as well as weak contact (0.98 GB/FB). In the controversial Joe Mauer at-bat, Liriano rang the Twins catcher up on a fastball that likely crossed between the batter’s box chalk and the plate. Nevertheless, it was because of A.J. Pierzynski’s location and Liriano’s ability to hit that target that Liriano was able to coax a strike call out of the umpire. Pierzynski sits down and in on Mauer, not unlike Mauer’s target on Longoria above perhaps slightly above the knee more: [ATTACH=CONFIG]1726[/ATTACH] Not only does Liriano hit this spot, but his fastball is also running down and in. Had Mauer decided to swing at that pitch, the results would have a high probability of becoming a ground ball: [ATTACH=CONFIG]1725[/ATTACH] The biggest difference between the two versions comes at Liriano’s release point. In his offering to Longoria, Liriano’s lower body is opening up at the point of release. This was a trait he displayed constantly through his first month of starts. Meanwhile, in his pitch to Mauer, he is staying over his front leg which is directed to his target: [ATTACH=CONFIG]1724[/ATTACH] [ATTACH=CONFIG]1723[/ATTACH] Many fans wonder why the Twins, instead of trading for some marginal prospects, simply did not opt to keep Liriano and hope of getting him to re-up for the $12.5 million qualifying offer. After all, his second half performance has been close to vintage Liriano from 2010 – after which most people would have been very happy extending him a long-term contract. The one-year risk, even at that price, seemed minimal. For their part, the Twins organization had seen too many inconsistencies (not to mention injuries) like the one highlighted above to commit another year at that price. We know that the front office is risk adverse in both their free agent signings and their long-term commitments. Still, credit the White Sox for landing a pitcher who had been trending upwards and exercising better mechanics at a low cost. Will Liriano be able to maintain these mechanics over the course of the rest of the season or, going forward, over an entire contract? By trading him away, the Twins clearly do not believe that he can sustain this pace. In my opinion, barring any injury, Liriano should finish this season out strong and will be a high-risk, high-reward signing for another team this offseason.

Sam Deduno has a curveball that would be easily classified as “filthy” by baseball jargon standards but his fastball is “crazy” – at least by his own admission. According to a story from Rochester, the Red Wings pitchers were introducing themselves and speaking about their best pitches. When it was his turn, the 28-year-old right-hander from the Dominican introduced himself by saying “Sam Deduno and I have a crazy fastball.” Not crazy in the sense of a Aroldis Chapman 100 mile per hour fastball which is by you before you even get your feet set in the batter’s box, mind you. More like Nuke LaLoosh-fastball-off-the-mascot crazy. TexasLeaguers.com’s strike zone graph of Deduno’s fastball shows how this pitch is more like a shotgun blast than a precision sniper rifle: [ATTACH=CONFIG]1695[/ATTACH] His breaking stuff is without doubt his best pitch and he leans heavily on it. Overall, opponents are hitting just .176 off of his curve and nearly 40% of his match-ups have ended in a strike out when throwing his curve for the last pitch of the at bat. With a sharp, quick bend, Deduno has gotten plenty of out-of-zone chases and missed a good amount of bats – just ask the Indians’ Johnny Damon how good that curve is after he struck out on one that hit the dirt almost five feet shy of the plate. Despite the impressive rate, over time opponents will likely stop chasing after the curve if he is unable to locate his fastball consistently. So far, Deduno has walked 16 batters in his 23 innings, which is a lot of baserunners and a lot of extra pitches. He has averted dangers by keeping those baserunners from scoring by stranding 85% of them - a rate that is well above average and is ripe for regression. When asked about the possibility of being “effectively wild” has helped the pitcher limit the Indians to one run on just two hits Saturday night, Twins pitching coach Rick Anderson joked “Ask Mauer, he says it’s like catching R.A. Dickey.” Sure, just like Dickey – give or take nearly 20 miles an hour of velocity between his knuckleball and Deduno’s fastball at 93. Because of the movement, Pitch F/X data suggests that he has two fastballs – a four-seamer and a cutter –but catcher Joe Mauer said that isn’t the case. It’s the same fastball claims the Twins backstop, who described the pitch as “unpredictable.” So how did Deduno’s battery mate attempt to corral the erratic heat? “With him I kind of just sit in the middle and tell him to aim down. Some will cut, some will sink. If it’s tough to catch, it’s probably hard to hit.” The Twins say they have seen improvements in the command of his fastball over the course of his four starts. Heading into his start against Cleveland, Deduno’s “four-seam fastball” (as categorized by Pitch F/X) was located in the strike zone less than 50% of the time. Following the seven inning performance, that rate is now above that mark at 50.3% indicating that he is making some progress. Again, while Mauer says there is no difference in his fastball types, Pitch F/X categorizes the one that cuts as a “cutter”. This version of his fastball was only thrown in the zone 39.3% of the time, a rate well below average and a sign that he still has work to do. The incremental improvement in his fastball comes as a result of added work with Anderson. Between starts, Deduno throws not one but two bullpen sessions. One of which, says Anderson, is to focus strictly on the fastball. In addition to getting a feel for the command of the pitch, Anderson also tries to keep in on his line and smooth out some of his mechanics. Although he may have some work to do harnessing his “cutter” version of his fastball, the progress - if measured in his seven inning, two-hit outing against Cleveland - has been encouraging so far.

Last season, the switch-hitting Alexi Casilla had produced at a very good rate against right-handed pitching. In 247 plate appearances in the left-handed batter’s box, he hit .274/.350/.400 – not too shabby for a middle infielder. This was a significant improvement for someone who had hit .228/.299/.320 from the left-side over the two previous seasons (2009 and 2010) in 314 plate appearances. Most analysts would likely dismiss his 2011 breakout as a statistical glitch of the effects of a small sample galaxy in comparison to his vast universe of career suck-i-tude. Meanwhile, before this season started I presented the argument that Casilla, at the ripe baseball age of 27, was finally ready to breakout. Based upon his mechanical changes he made in 2011 and his impressive winter ball performance which yielded some very good numbers, I was optimistic that Casilla would more than earn his $1.4 million payday and pick up where he left off in July of 2011. Of course, rather than being motivated to prove my thesis correct, Casilla continued to do his best Luis Rivas impersonation. After posting a career-best 750 OPS against right-handed pitching in 2011, Casilla has struggled to even reach 500 mark (currently at 475 OPS). In fact, his .192 average against right-handers is the fourth-lowest in the American League and the lowest among those with the platoon advantage. Once again, although it may be easy to simplify his performance to regression, Casilla’s offensive downturn has more to do with his mechanics and timing. The first clip is a swing from June 2011 that exemplifies his approach from May through July of 2011. Watch his lower half and witness a fluid and unison leg lift, a front toe tap that comes after the pitcher releases the ball and a noticeably violent lower-half weight transfer: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Casilla_FV_May2011.gif Casilla implemented these mechanics from May onward of last season and experienced terrific results. This gives his swing pop, instead of the slap-hitting Casilla we became accustom to seeing over the majority of his career. Compare that swing to his pre-May 2011 approach: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Casilla_FV_April2011v3.gif Notice that his stride is completed prior to the pitcher’s release of the ball (in the first version, he started his stride mid-pitch), leaving him flat-footed and simply shifting his weight from back to front and using more of his upper body in his swing. Casilla’s current mechanics are almost identical to those he used before his hot streak in 2011. Note the foot plant well before the pitcher’s release and muted weight shift: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Casilla_FV_2012.gif There is no clear reason as to why Casilla abandoned the method which proved the most fruitful for one that is quickly expediting his career out of professional baseball. Perhaps it is that his sporadic time between starts has thrown off his timing. Maybe it is something that the coaching staff has encouraged him to revert back to the old approach. Whatever the rationale behind it, it would seem to make more sense to attempt to revisit video of his swing from last year and attempt to resurrect his mechanics from that stretch of baseball.

Last season, the switch-hitting Alexi Casilla had produced at a very good rate against right-handed pitching. In 247 plate appearances in the left-handed batter’s box, he hit .274/.350/.400 – not too shabby for a middle infielder. This was a significant improvement for someone who had hit .228/.299/.320 from the left-side over the two previous seasons (2009 and 2010) in 314 plate appearances. Most analysts would likely dismiss his 2011 breakout as a statistical glitch of the effects of a small sample galaxy in comparison to his vast universe of career suck-i-tude. Meanwhile, before this season started I presented the argument that Casilla, at the ripe baseball age of 27, was finally ready to breakout. Based upon his mechanical changes he made in 2011 and his impressive winter ball performance which yielded some very good numbers, I was optimistic that Casilla would more than earn his $1.4 million payday and pick up where he left off in July of 2011. Of course, rather than being motivated to prove my thesis correct, Casilla continued to do his best Luis Rivas impersonation. After posting a career-best 750 OPS against right-handed pitching in 2011, Casilla has struggled to even reach 500 mark (currently at 475 OPS). In fact, his .192 average against right-handers is the fourth-lowest in the American League and the lowest among those with the platoon advantage. Once again, although it may be easy to simplify his performance to regression, Casilla’s offensive downturn has more to do with his mechanics and timing. The first clip is a swing from June 2011 that exemplifies his approach from May through July of 2011. Watch his lower half and witness a fluid and unison leg lift, a front toe tap that comes after the pitcher releases the ball and a noticeably violent lower-half weight transfer: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Casilla_FV_May2011.gif Casilla implemented these mechanics from May onward of last season and experienced terrific results. This gives his swing pop, instead of the slap-hitting Casilla we became accustom to seeing over the majority of his career. Compare that swing to his pre-May 2011 approach: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Casilla_FV_April2011v3.gif Notice that his stride is completed prior to the pitcher’s release of the ball (in the first version, he started his stride mid-pitch), leaving him flat-footed and simply shifting his weight from back to front and using more of his upper body in his swing. Casilla’s current mechanics are almost identical to those he used before his hot streak in 2011. Note the foot plant well before the pitcher’s release and muted weight shift: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Casilla_FV_2012.gif There is no clear reason as to why Casilla abandoned the method which proved the most fruitful for one that is quickly expediting his career out of professional baseball. Perhaps it is that his sporadic time between starts has thrown off his timing. Maybe it is something that the coaching staff has encouraged him to revert back to the old approach. Whatever the rationale behind it, it would seem to make more sense to attempt to revisit video of his swing from last year and attempt to resurrect his mechanics from that stretch of baseball.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]1584[/ATTACH]So the Kansas City Royals made one of the most lopsided trades when the acquired Jonathan Sanchez for Melky Cabrera since the natives swapped Manhattan Island to the Dutch for about 25 bucks. After a rebound season in KC, Cabrera is fully rejuvenated in the Bay Area, hitting .353/.391/.514 with 8 home runs for the Giants. Meanwhile, in 12 starts, Sanchez completely soiled the bed so badly that the Royals were recently forced to designate him for assignment. There was plenty of reason for the Royals to take a chance on the 29-year-old left-hander. According to his expected fielding independent figures, his 4.10 mark from 2008 to 2011 tied him with rotation-mate Matt Cain and put him ahead of such higher priced free agents as Edwin Jackson. So for the nominal sum of $5.6 million, the Royals received a veteran starter for Cabrera who, like Sanchez, was also in his final year of arbitration. On paper it made all the sense in the world. Of course, Sanchez’s glaring weakness, command, reared its ugly head once he moved to the American League. Considering his walk rate of 12.2% was the highest among those with a minimum of 500 innings pitched from 2008 to 2011, this should not come as a complete surprise. While his control waned in 2011 with San Francisco, the wheels fell completely off in 2012. Last year, Sanchez threw fewer pitches in the strike zone (45%) but was able to get opponents to chase after stuff off the plate (27%) and miss on those pitches at a decent rate (59%). This year, however, he threw the same amount of pitches in the zone (45%) but was unable to entice any takers on the out of zone ones (21% - the lowest among qualified starters in 2012) and those who did, hit the ball a high amount (69%). Ergo, Sanchez’s swinging strike rate declined from the above average 10% to the below average 7% in 2012. Frustrated with his tendency to hand out free passes carte blanche, the Royals made the decision to waive him. This gives teams the option to claim him then either work out a deal with Kansas City for a potential trade or assume the remainder of his $5.6 million prorated the rest of the year. Of course, if everyone passes – and because of the results of his last four starts (17 IP, 27 hits, 23 earned runs and a 11/16 K/BB ratio), it is entirely possible – anyone could pick him up for an audition at the league minimum. If that scenario plays out, should the Twins consider grabbing the left-hander? The Twins have done great work turning around their own control-deficient lefty in Francisco Liriano. Like Sanchez, Liriano struggled against his mechanics which led to a high walk rate as well (10% from 2008 to 2011). This current season was one of Liriano’s worst but, in season, the team saw him re-establish his control and post a 67-to-25 strikeouts-to-walks ratio in 57.1 innings. The stage is set for the organization to trade Liriano. Despite his stellar performance as of late, his impending free agency and high cost of retaining him (over $12 million for 2013), the heightened interest in him by other teams only stands to benefit the Twins and the front office is bound to pounce on that. Still, Liriano’s departure would leave Minnesota with yet another hole to fill within the rotation – now and in the future. That’s where Sanchez would come in. If he’s available for the minimum – similar to the way the Padres nabbed Jason Marquis after the Twins kicked him to the curb – the Twins may have the opportunity to tinker with Sanchez for a handful of starts and see if they can redirect him back to his form he showed with the Giants. After all, from 2008 to 2011 Sanchez had one of the best swing-and-miss rates among left-handers (10.4%) leading to the second-best strikeout rate among southpaws (24%). And, at 29, he’s still in what should be the prime of his career. If his decline is not injury-related, he could be resurrected with the proper instruction. Sanchez’s mechanics, as mentioned above, have been a bit chaotic at times. Occasionally he’ll wrap his leg during his wind-up and other times he’ll fail to pick up his target before throwing. These are certainly imperfections that teams would probably like to correct. However, Sanchez does not seem to be receptive to the suggestions. When pressed by the Royals’ media on the possible of adjusting his mechanics, Sanchez balked. “I don’t want to change anything,” he told reporters at the end of June, “If I try to change things, I’ll end up a real mess. I just have to trust that it will work out.” That’s not the talk of someone entirely open to doing everything possible to turn things around. Then again, being released might be just that type of wake up call to make a pitcher amiable to making adjustments. If the Twins grab him, he may wind up being the stubborn type who is not willing to listen or try new methods, even if that means a one-way ticket out of baseball. The Twins have 10 days to contemplate and examine whether or not Sanchez is repairable (perhaps less if they want to grab him on waivers and work out a trade). Based on his past track record, there is certainly a reason to spend the extra time on this decision. If he proves teachable and makes progress, consider bringing him back for one of the vacancies for 2013. If not, send him packing.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]1536[/ATTACH]The Big Picture At the All Star Break last year, the Washington Nationals were playing .500 baseball (46-46) but were already 11.5 games back behind the National League East leading Phillies. To be sure, it was just their second non-losing first half of the season since they emigrated from Montreal. Prior to last season, DC had entered just one midseason classic with a winning record. When MLB moved the Expos to the nation’s capital, the newly christen Nationals posted a 52-36 record heading into the All Star Break, leading the division by two-and-a-half games. Of course, Washington would go 29-45 in the season’s back half and wind up in last place. This season, the Nationals, fueled by some incredible young talent (Bryce Harper) and outstanding pitching (3.21 ERA, best in MLB), have produced their second winning first-half – going 49-34 with a four game lead over the Atlanta Braves. Why They Will Trade With The Twins Selling “Hope” has played well in Washington in the political world. Now the Nationals are attempting to convince their fans that it exists for them in the NL East too. It won’t be easy with the big spending teams like the Braves, Mets and Marlins breathing down their necks so the Nationals’ general manager Mike Rizzo will be making calls in July to see what is available to help push his team over that hump. And, let’s face it: the Twins have made for very good trade partners in the past as well. Rizzo did a job picking Wilson Ramos (season-ending knee surgery notwithstanding) and, if you believed last trade deadline’s reports, he nearly got the Twins to hand over Denard Span for…ROGER BERNADINA. (Yes, Span was still struggling through concussion symptoms but good god, ROGER BERNADINA?) Based on those two instances, I’d say Rizzo has found himself an organization in which he can sell oceanfront property in Arizona. Given their need to appease the fan base in a heavily competitive DC/Baltimore market combined with the complete lack of a legitimate lead-off hitter (as a group they are posting a .306 on-base percentage), there is probably a strong chance that Rizzo would pick up the phone and see if the Twins are still interested in Span-for-Bernadina. Why They Won’t Trade With the Twins Aside from Span, there is not much on the menu that would appeal to this team. Their pitching staff is Jim Morrison poetry deep and even their need for a center fielder has quelled since moving uber-stud Harper to the middle of the outfield. While Span’s +21 Plus/Minus in center field is the best in baseball, Harper’s +12 is not far behind (fifth among center fielders). What’s more is the Nationals’ mix of Mike Morse in left, Andy LaRoche at first and Jayson Werth impending return from the DL to return to right field means Harper might need to stay in center. Also, it’s worth noting that Washington’s minor league pitching depth is fairly thin after the Nationals unloaded three of their top arms to Oakland in exchange for Gio Gonzalez. What is left might not be appealing to the Twins either. Conclusion The Nationals will be buyers but it would appear that if they are not interested in Span - or maybe a reunion with Jamey Carroll as a back-up infielder - there may not be a match with the Twins. ---- Possible Trade Targets Steve Lombardozzi Jr – INF/OF The Son of Lombo in the same lineup with the Son of Sal (Butera)? Whoa. The 23-year-old Lombardozzi has been ousted from his second base position by Danny Espinosa and has been shifted to left field where his bat is a complete miscast. He’s shown good on-base acumen in the minors (career .369 OBP) but has not had that manifest in his 238 plate appearances at the major league level (career .313 OBP). He intrigued the Twins last year when they were discussing a Span trade. Drew Storen – Closer Gosh, you’d hate to think that the Twins would target recently damaged goods like Storen but damn do they love them some Proven Closer. With Storen rehabbing his way back to the Nationals as we speak, the Twins have no clear cut plans for the backend of the bullpen in the coming years. The 24-year-old Storen would in theory give them stability at a cheap price in 2013 but comes with risks. Matthew Skole – Third Base At six-foot-four and 230 pounds, Skole is a monster at third base. His left-handed power has certainly manifested in his second professional season. In 319 plate appearances in 2011, he hit five home runs in low-A. This year, in 370 plate appearances, he’s hit 21 home runs and is leading the Sally League. His glove is questionable so he might be destined for another position than his current one. Rob Wort – RHRP If the team is in need of some bullpen depth, the 23-year-old Rob Wort might be an interesting plus-one in any potential trade. Repeating High-A ball for the second consecutive year, he’s struck out 63 in 38.1 innings while walking just 13. It is the latter that is important as Wort’s control had been terrible in 2011 (he walked 27 in 36.2 innings). He throws a low-90s fastball but can clearly miss bats. Roger Bernadina - OF No.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]1491[/ATTACH]For Twins fans who were fortunate enough to tune into last night's Twins-Rangers broadcast on FOX, they were treated with the soothing baritone of former pitcher Mitch "Wild Thing" Williams. Turns out, Williams is the new Joe Morgan of saying semi-crazy things on the air. In the top of the first, Denard Span on first base and discussing Texas's starter Derek Holland return from the disabled list, Williams said that he "does not believe in the slide step" - the abbreviated leg kick in which a pitcher expedites his throw home in order to keep the runner from stealing a base. His reasoning behind that was that it "leads to injuries". Interesting. I had not heard that theory from anyone, anywhere. The kicker of the evening which forced me to head to the bar and watch the game without any volume was his explanation of the non-balk call on Holland once Ben Revere reached first. Here is the video (forgive the quality of the video, it is shot of the TV from my camera phone). During the play, you will hear Williams emphatically deny that Holland's move to first to pick off Revere is not a balk. (Also, in the background you will hear FOX's microphones picking up Ron Gardenhire's choice words towards the umpiring crew for their miss on that call.) Williams' central argument revolves around the landing point of Holland's front foot - that it "has to be in the middle between home and first". Prior to that, he tells the viewing audience that Holland's foot does not come "closing to crossing" and that he is at least "45 degrees". The problem with Williams' call is twofold: (1) It was not what the Twins had beef with and (2) by MLB's rule, it was almost certainly a balk. According the MLB's rule, section 8.05: What you see in the clip is Holland's lead foot crossing his body during the leg kick - indicating that he is going to pitch to home plate or, as per the rules, it was a "motion naturally associated with his pitch." Revere breaks on this movement convinced that Holland is going towards the plate. That is what Gardy and the team is so worked up about. Holland's motion clearly was an attempt to deceive the runner. Needless to say, the balk rule is pretty muddled and open for interpretation. However, Williams, who is, again, a former pitcher and a part-time broadcaster, is completely unfamiliar with the balk rules. Nowhere in the written rules do they discuss a "45 degree" angle in which a left-handed pitcher's foot must land. Much like some imaginary line in which a batter crosses when check-swinging for a strike, this also does not exist in the rules. Hopefully before his next national broadcast somebody at FOX gives Williams a copy of MLB's rules to read.

So far this season Justin Morneau has seemed as comfortable facing lefties as Mitt Romney would as the opening act for a Phish concert. In spite of performing quite well against right-handed pitchers (hitting .310/.386/.561 and smacking 8 of his 10 home runs), among qualified hitters Morneau’s .100 average off of left-handed pitching (8-for-80 as of Wednesday) is the lowest in baseball. This is not simply a fluky situation; the Twins first baseman is completely lost mechanically at the plate against his left-handed brethren. Prior to the nasty concussion in 2010 Morneau had handled lefties decent enough over his career. Dating back to 2004, he had hit lefties at a .269/.319/.468 clip. However, since the knee to the head in Toronto, he has posted a .124/.167/.200 line against southpaws. Perhaps it is simply rust, an injury or maybe something psychologically about being in the batter’s box and a 90 mile per hour plus fastball that cross in front of your head. Maybe it is a combination of all three. Either way, whatever is responsible for this decline does not seem like an easy fix. Lending credence to the notion that it may be more rust or psychological rather than a physical ailment like his wrist or shoulder is the amount of times he is fool by sliders from left-handers now versus two years ago. According to pitch f/x data, in 2010, left-handed opponents threw him sliders 21% of the time. Morneau elected to swing at 53% of those thrown his way while whiffing at 14%. This year, opposing team’s have had their lefties increase the number of sliders (31%) in response to Morneau’s inability to layoff of the breaking pitch as he has swung at 70% of all left-handed sliders thrown his way while whiffing at 26% of them. This statistical breakdown leads one to believe that Morneau is struggling with pitch recognition out of the pitcher’s hand. To make matters worse, his mechanics – particularly against left-handed pitching – has become so abysmal that he’s unable to keep himself locked in on pitches when teams attack him on the outer-half of the plate. His batted ball distribution chart paints a disconcerting portrait of how far his skills against left-handers have eroded. Back in 2010 Morneau was much better at using the entire field. As same-sided hurlers would throw sliders and fastballs on the outer half of the strike zone, he would be able to deposit them all over the field. Now, as we have seen more recently this year, Morneau is having difficulty doing anything against lefties besides yanking the ball: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Morneau_batted_balls_v_lefties.jpg This is particularly ineffective when the majority of pitches to him are being thrown away. As noted above, Morneau is mechanically out of whack as well when it comes to swinging against lefties. Focus on his front side (hip) and compare his swing from 2010 (top) versus one from this past June against the Phillies’ Antonio Bastardo (bottom): http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Morneau_2010_leg_kick.gif http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Morneau_2012_June.gif You will notice that in his 2010 stance and mechanics, Morneau kept his feet closer together and made a long stride at the ball. Once he began his swing, he demonstrated the ability to keep his hip on the ball and open up along with his swing as his hands come to the ball. These traits were consistent throughout many of his clips that season. In the more recent version however, he had widen his stance thereby shortening his stride (perhaps in efforts to reduce the movement and improve contact). When he swings, his front side basically splays wide open well before his hands come through the hitting zone. Because his front side has already committed to opening up, Morneau has no choice but to pull the ball – even if it is located on the outer-half of the plate. This too, unfortunately, is a trait that also carries with him throughout many of his swing clips from this year and is not unique just to this match-up. With his issues at the plate continuing to progress, it became apparent that in the past week or so Morneau and hitting coach Joe Vavra have made some changes to his approach to combat this slide. The most notable of which is removing his leg kick altogether. Instead of the prominent leg lift and stride as seen in the clips above, Morneau is now simply lifting the heel of his front foot while keeping his toes firmly in the dirt: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Morneau_2012_July.gif http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Morneau_2012_July2.gif Additionally, there seems to be more concentration on keeping his weight back and going the other way with the pitch (at least you can see this in the clip against Bruce Chen and the Royals or today with Darin Downs on the mound for the Tigers). The rationale behind this alteration seems to be focused on making contact by keeping him from drifting out with his front side. By not having a stride, Morneau’s hips will have less of a tendency to open up. Likewise, by minimizing the movement it allows him to keep his head still and in theory see the ball better. Of course, at the same time, this significantly reduces his power potential and it may be the reason why during Thursday’s game, Morneau went back to his original stride (with little success): http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Morneau_2012_July3.gif In addition to the season long woes against lefties, Morneau’s power has been MIA since June 4 when he hit his last home run. The ball just is not coming off of his bat the way it had previously. According to BaseballHeatMaps.com, before June 4 Morneau’s fly balls and line drives were travelling an average of 298.27 feet. Since then, that average has dropped to 259.89 and has resulted in five extra base hits in 101 plate appearances since his last home run. Given that he has made some changes, this indicates that he is not wholly comfortable at the plate. While he and Vavra are attempting to get back on course, it raises the larger question on whether he should continue to be used regularly against left-handed pitchers. With Morneau inserted in the fifth spot against southpaws and having him continue to produce at the abysmal rate that he has greatly diminishes the effectiveness of the lineup. The Twins have three games remaining before the All Star Break and in two of those they will be facing southpaws. This should be a good time to sit the first baseman out for a few games, giving him some added rest and time to concoct a game plan against lefties.

So far this season Justin Morneau has seemed as comfortable facing lefties as Mitt Romney would as the opening act for a Phish concert. In spite of performing quite well against right-handed pitchers (hitting .310/.386/.561 and smacking 8 of his 10 home runs), among qualified hitters Morneau’s .100 average off of left-handed pitching (8-for-80 as of Wednesday) is the lowest in baseball. This is not simply a fluky situation; the Twins first baseman is completely lost mechanically at the plate against his left-handed brethren. Prior to the nasty concussion in 2010 Morneau had handled lefties decent enough over his career. Dating back to 2004, he had hit lefties at a .269/.319/.468 clip. However, since the knee to the head in Toronto, he has posted a .124/.167/.200 line against southpaws. Perhaps it is simply rust, an injury or maybe something psychologically about being in the batter’s box and a 90 mile per hour plus fastball that cross in front of your head. Maybe it is a combination of all three. Either way, whatever is responsible for this decline does not seem like an easy fix. Lending credence to the notion that it may be more rust or psychological rather than a physical ailment like his wrist or shoulder is the amount of times he is fool by sliders from left-handers now versus two years ago. According to pitch f/x data, in 2010, left-handed opponents threw him sliders 21% of the time. Morneau elected to swing at 53% of those thrown his way while whiffing at 14%. This year, opposing team’s have had their lefties increase the number of sliders (31%) in response to Morneau’s inability to layoff of the breaking pitch as he has swung at 70% of all left-handed sliders thrown his way while whiffing at 26% of them. This statistical breakdown leads one to believe that Morneau is struggling with pitch recognition out of the pitcher’s hand. To make matters worse, his mechanics – particularly against left-handed pitching – has become so abysmal that he’s unable to keep himself locked in on pitches when teams attack him on the outer-half of the plate. His batted ball distribution chart paints a disconcerting portrait of how far his skills against left-handers have eroded. Back in 2010 Morneau was much better at using the entire field. As same-sided hurlers would throw sliders and fastballs on the outer half of the strike zone, he would be able to deposit them all over the field. Now, as we have seen more recently this year, Morneau is having difficulty doing anything against lefties besides yanking the ball: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Morneau_batted_balls_v_lefties.jpg This is particularly ineffective when the majority of pitches to him are being thrown away. As noted above, Morneau is mechanically out of whack as well when it comes to swinging against lefties. Focus on his front side (hip) and compare his swing from 2010 (top) versus one from this past June against the Phillies’ Antonio Bastardo (bottom): http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Morneau_2010_leg_kick.gif http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Morneau_2012_June.gif You will notice that in his 2010 stance and mechanics, Morneau kept his feet closer together and made a long stride at the ball. Once he began his swing, he demonstrated the ability to keep his hip on the ball and open up along with his swing as his hands come to the ball. These traits were consistent throughout many of his clips that season. In the more recent version however, he had widen his stance thereby shortening his stride (perhaps in efforts to reduce the movement and improve contact). When he swings, his front side basically splays wide open well before his hands come through the hitting zone. Because his front side has already committed to opening up, Morneau has no choice but to pull the ball – even if it is located on the outer-half of the plate. This too, unfortunately, is a trait that also carries with him throughout many of his swing clips from this year and is not unique just to this match-up. With his issues at the plate continuing to progress, it became apparent that in the past week or so Morneau and hitting coach Joe Vavra have made some changes to his approach to combat this slide. The most notable of which is removing his leg kick altogether. Instead of the prominent leg lift and stride as seen in the clips above, Morneau is now simply lifting the heel of his front foot while keeping his toes firmly in the dirt: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Morneau_2012_July.gif http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Morneau_2012_July2.gif Additionally, there seems to be more concentration on keeping his weight back and going the other way with the pitch (at least you can see this in the clip against Bruce Chen and the Royals or today with Darin Downs on the mound for the Tigers). The rationale behind this alteration seems to be focused on making contact by keeping him from drifting out with his front side. By not having a stride, Morneau’s hips will have less of a tendency to open up. Likewise, by minimizing the movement it allows him to keep his head still and in theory see the ball better. Of course, at the same time, this significantly reduces his power potential and it may be the reason why during Thursday’s game, Morneau went back to his original stride (with little success): http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Morneau_2012_July3.gif In addition to the season long woes against lefties, Morneau’s power has been MIA since June 4 when he hit his last home run. The ball just is not coming off of his bat the way it had previously. According to BaseballHeatMaps.com, before June 4 Morneau’s fly balls and line drives were travelling an average of 298.27 feet. Since then, that average has dropped to 259.89 and has resulted in five extra base hits in 101 plate appearances since his last home run. Given that he has made some changes, this indicates that he is not wholly comfortable at the plate. While he and Vavra are attempting to get back on course, it raises the larger question on whether he should continue to be used regularly against left-handed pitchers. With Morneau inserted in the fifth spot against southpaws and having him continue to produce at the abysmal rate that he has greatly diminishes the effectiveness of the lineup. The Twins have three games remaining before the All Star Break and in two of those they will be facing southpaws. This should be a good time to sit the first baseman out for a few games, giving him some added rest and time to concoct a game plan against lefties.

Good thoughts on this subject. Thanks for sharing!