Parker Hageman

Download attachment: Main.jpg Not long ago, we had to sell my grandmother’s house. As part of the purging process, a box filled with newspapers from the Minnesota Twins’ championship seasons in 1987 and 1991 were discovered. The newspapers, still reeking of the stale cigarette smoke that saturated her entire dwelling, are pure gold.(1) As the resident family baseball-phile, the archive was entrusted to me. Without much to do with the box, other than keep it away from fire - paper’s worst enemy - the only other thing I could think about doing with them is sharing the important snippets. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]Today we go back to the happenings of October 12, 1987, as reported from the October 13, 1987 Star Tribune. **** When closer Jeff Readon corralled the Matt Nokes comebacker and ran it towards the looming Kent Hrbek before flipping him the ball and then following his throw into his first baseman’s arms, the Twins were poised to return to baseball’s biggest stage 22 years after being beaten by the Los Angeles Dodgers. In the Twins clubhouse at Tiger Stadium, Star Tribune staff writer Doug Grow followed the team’s alcohol-soaked celebration. Gaetti would finish the championship series 6-for-20 (.300) but have two home runs in the first game of the series(2). Those two were collected off Detroit’s starter and big mid-season acquisition, Doyle Alexander, who cost the Tigers one John Smoltz. Following the game, staff writers Mark Vancil and Dennis Brackin got Kirby Puckett and Kent Hrbek’s feelings on being one step away from being the best in baseball: The disbelief in a team that had squeaked out an 85-77 season - one that had gone 29-52 away from the covered stadium - and had somehow conquered the 98-win Tigers, on their turf no less, permeated everywhere. Columnist Jim Klobuchar summarized the thoughts on this ragtag bunch nicely: Neat. Outdated fat jokes. As for Gaetti, yes, he had one of his worst offensive months of the season in September, finishing the final month with a .243/.287/.393 slash after hitting .260/.307/.505 prior to that. Certainly, the Twins stunned plenty of people including former sports columnist turned radio host Dan Barreiro. This Barreiro had been incredibly incredulous that this assortment could withstand the onslaught of the favored Tigers - specifically because of the Twins’ tendency of being “domesick” when away from the home confines. Barreiro lists twenty reasons why this series victory was improbable including: Barreiro, always the instigator, would also point out that manager Tom Kelly’s gamble to move starter Bert Blyleven up to Game 5 rather than go with Joe Niekro or Les Straker paid off. Had it backfired and the Tigers come away with a win, Kelly would have been forced to use either Niekro or Straker in Game 6 and have Frank Viola as the insurance policy in the event of Game 7, rather than just set his rotation for a more conventional Blyleven/Viola combination for the series’ last two games. The moral of the story? Tom Kelly has balls. Another one of Barreiro’s reasons for the improbable win was the pick-off of the Tigers’ veteran Darrell Evans at third during the sixth inning of Game 4 (the Tigers would lose 5-3). The sports page’s most tenured columnist, Sid Hartman, wrote a lot of notes(4), including one that had quoted (for some reason, I guess) legendary Michigan football coach Bo Schembechler who defended the Tigers’ Darrell Evans’ play. Gaetti explained how the play went down to Hartman: But what about the celebration back in the Twin Cities? Everyone knows that the Twins returned home from Detroit to a Metrodome that was filled to the brim with rabid fans, eager to cheer on the hometown team. Star Tribune reporters Norman Draper and Kurt Chandler documented the pandamonium. The Twins landed at the airport at 10:05 PM and were police escorted downtown to the stadium. The team’s postseason coordinator Jaime Lowe, said that they anticipated 4,000 to 6,000 people when they started planning the event - and there was even a bit of concern there would be no one to greet them. How wrong they were. Prior to letting the gates open, a crush of fans descended to the gates and the raucous mob waved Homer Hankies and screamed while a Dixieland Band played “Take Me Out to the Ballgame.” Officials allowed people in an hour earlier than expected to allow an estimated 55,000 fans stream in. Elsewhere, at Champp’s Sports Cafe(5) in Richfield, where the venue was overflowing with fans watching the clinching game and enjoying what is assumed to be adult beverages. The interviews with patrons reveal some of the enduring Minnesota mindset that has plagued citizens of the states through the ages. Yup. Loserville. What was the scene like inside the bar when the Twins got that final out in Detroit? For the impending World Series, whose National League challenger had yet to be determined, fans lit up the Twins ticket office to get their hands on the state’s most sought after seats since 1965. Employees, however, had to inform the callers that they would need to go to Dayton’s department store in order to procure tickets.(6) This sales process is unfathomable to the younger generation. Think about it. Instead of being able to log into the team’s website from the comfort of your own home (let alone pay over the phone), you had to physically go to a building and wait in line. With other people. Germs and awkward conversation. The horror. That night, the temperature dropped to a crisp 35-degrees as fans camped out in front of one of seven area Dayton’s locations. In play, reports Jon Jeter and Norman Draper, were tickets mainly for upper deck outfield and a few lower level locations. $20 or $30? Twenty-six years later, SeatGeek.com says you can purchased hypothetical Detroit Tigers World Series tickets for a small fee of $300. Times have a-changed. **** (1) The discovery of the box also made me realize that when I am forced out of my home or go tits-up and my kids and grandkids come to clean the clutter, no one will find any newspapers. At best? Tons of crappy DVDs which I haven’t figured out how to get rid of and the sight of which makes me furious for being so frivolous with my money. Who the hell needs to own two copies of American Pie 2? (2) It was somewhat of an odd decision to choose Gaetti considering the numbers Brunansky had put up. Bruno matched The Rat’s home run total (2) but had driven in nine to Gaetti’s five and gone 7-for-17 (.412). Star Tribune staff writer Dennis Brackin would point to Gaetti’s intangibles, including the call for the Darrell Evans pick-off in Game 4 and acting as a sparkplug for initiating the scoring in Game 1 by homering in his first two series at-bats. Still, while he got to drink out of the same trophy, Bruno missed out on the added $25,000 bonus Gaetti received for winning the award. (3) The left-handed Dan Schatzeder, who the Twins had acquired in June for Tom Schwarz and Danny Clay, had been atrocious in Minnesota. In 43.2 innings, he allowed 64 hits and 37 runs. The reason why his four and a third scoreless ball was so remarkable is that in his 30 appearances for the Twins, he only had 13 clean innings. Oh, and left-handed hitters had hit .353/.405/.515 off of him in that time as well making people question why Anderson was afraid to turn to his lefty bench bats. (4) Another one of Hartman’s notes included the Twins desire to bring back impending free agents in reliever Juan Berenguer and designated hitter Don Baylor. Hartman pointed out that Berenguer took a “$200,000” pay cut to sign with the Twins while GM Andy McPhail was quoted as wanting to pursue Baylor but admitted the team wouldn’t be able to match his $850,000 salary in 1988. In the end, the Twins re-signed Berenguer to a three-year, $1.875M contract while Baylor walked, later signing with Oakland for $495,000. Berenger pitched in 164 games during that contract and had a 3.61 ERA. Baylor would hit just .220/.332/.326 with the A’s in 92 games (he would get hit by a pitch 12 times at the plate). (5) Ask John Bonnes about their special dipping sauce and watch his face light up like it is effin’ Christmas morning. (6) Kids, once upon a time Macy’s was once called Dayton’s. Click here to view the article

Last season, the switch-hitting Alexi Casilla had produced at a very good rate against right-handed pitching. In 247 plate appearances in the left-handed batter’s box, he hit .274/.350/.400 – not too shabby for a middle infielder. This was a significant improvement for someone who had hit .228/.299/.320 from the left-side over the two previous seasons (2009 and 2010) in 314 plate appearances. Most analysts would likely dismiss his 2011 breakout as a statistical glitch of the effects of a small sample galaxy in comparison to his vast universe of career suck-i-tude. Meanwhile, before this season started I presented the argument that Casilla, at the ripe baseball age of 27, was finally ready to breakout. Based upon his mechanical changes he made in 2011 and his impressive winter ball performance which yielded some very good numbers, I was optimistic that Casilla would more than earn his $1.4 million payday and pick up where he left off in July of 2011. Of course, rather than being motivated to prove my thesis correct, Casilla continued to do his best Luis Rivas impersonation. After posting a career-best 750 OPS against right-handed pitching in 2011, Casilla has struggled to even reach 500 mark (currently at 475 OPS). In fact, his .192 average against right-handers is the fourth-lowest in the American League and the lowest among those with the platoon advantage. Once again, although it may be easy to simplify his performance to regression, Casilla’s offensive downturn has more to do with his mechanics and timing. The first clip is a swing from June 2011 that exemplifies his approach from May through July of 2011. Watch his lower half and witness a fluid and unison leg lift, a front toe tap that comes after the pitcher releases the ball and a noticeably violent lower-half weight transfer: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Casilla_FV_May2011.gif Casilla implemented these mechanics from May onward of last season and experienced terrific results. This gives his swing pop, instead of the slap-hitting Casilla we became accustom to seeing over the majority of his career. Compare that swing to his pre-May 2011 approach: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Casilla_FV_April2011v3.gif Notice that his stride is completed prior to the pitcher’s release of the ball (in the first version, he started his stride mid-pitch), leaving him flat-footed and simply shifting his weight from back to front and using more of his upper body in his swing. Casilla’s current mechanics are almost identical to those he used before his hot streak in 2011. Note the foot plant well before the pitcher’s release and muted weight shift: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Casilla_FV_2012.gif There is no clear reason as to why Casilla abandoned the method which proved the most fruitful for one that is quickly expediting his career out of professional baseball. Perhaps it is that his sporadic time between starts has thrown off his timing. Maybe it is something that the coaching staff has encouraged him to revert back to the old approach. Whatever the rationale behind it, it would seem to make more sense to attempt to revisit video of his swing from last year and attempt to resurrect his mechanics from that stretch of baseball. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: espnhs_byron_buxton_576x324.jpg The Twins save $200,000 by locking up their number two overall draft pick, Byron Buxton, to a $6 million dollar bonus, slightly under Major League Baseball’s new slot recommendations, reports Baseball America’s Jim Callis. As Callis mentions, Buxton’s signing represents a 25% increase over this year’s first pick of the draft, Houston’s Carlos Correa, who signed with the Astros on June 7 for a reported sum of $4.8 million. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Buxton, 18, is a significant investment over last year’s selection, UNC’s Levi Michael, who the Twins inked for just $1.175 million. Also, unlike last year’s selection, the Twins saved themselves two months of lost development time by signing Buxton in June rather than August as they did for Michael. Michael, who was two years older than Buxton when drafted, has just begun his professional career at High-A Fort Myers and is scuffling against the competition, hitting .214/.308/.286 in 226 plate appearances. Meanwhile, Buxton will likely have the opportunity to experience his first season as a professional in 2012 at one of the two Rookie level teams, potentially starting with GCL Twins and then progressing to Elizabethton. Prior to his signing, Buxton was on-hand at Target Field after his physical and took some batting practice with the team. MLB.com correspondent Jordan Garretson witnessed his round in the cages and tweeted that his performance was “not really blowing anyone away”, noting that he was “spraying line drives around the field.” Now, this is obviously a premature assessment of Buxton’s true talents, particularly given the whirlwind the past few weeks must have been. What’s more is given Buxton’s lack of home run power in high school not having upper deck power at this point should be expected. Nevertheless, FSN did mention he eventually dropped a shot into the bullpen in left-center field which is clearly distance reserved for those wearing big-boy pants. In short, the raw power is not quite there. As ESPN.com’s Keith Law noted, his current power on a 20-80 scale rates at 35 while his potential is closer to 60. So obviously there is room to grow. With potential that has been regularly compared to Arizona’s Justin Upton and the Dodgers’ Matt Kemp, Buxton’s developmental path looks like it will be more similar to Kemp’s than Upton’s. The Diamondback’s took a rather aggressive approach with their number one overall pick in 2005. They inserted the 18 year old into the Midwest League (Low-A) a year after his selection and Upton crushed immediately, hitting 12 home runs and posting a .263/.343/.413 batting line. Meanwhile, Kemp, who was a sixth round pick out of high school, was sent to the Gulf Coast League immediately after the draft and hit just one home run with a .270/.298/.346 batting line. It was not until his first full season in the minors that his true power talents began to emerge. Offensively, Buxton feels more like a Kemp who eventually obtained power versus an Upton who hit for power out of the gates. Fortunately for the Twins - who moved quickly to lock up their highest selection since Joe Mauer in 2001 - they will have the opportunity to start his development right away and put him on the path to hopeful reach his comparables. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Joe Mauer.jpg In speaking with the media this afternoon, Twins general manager Terry Ryan announced that the team has decided to shutdown Joe Mauer because of his on-going concussion issue, tweeted FoxSportNorth.com's Tyler Mason. According to reports, both Ryan and Mauer were insistent that Mauer would be back to catch in 2014. Of course, with catching, there is little reassurance that he will avoid triggering more concussions going forward. The Twins have just seven games remaining and Mauer has had on-again, off-again symptoms so there is little reason to push the franchise player. Mauer last played on August 19 and will now miss a total of 39 games due to the brain injury. Click here to view the article

As the battle for the 25-man roster heats up in the Florida sunshine, utility hopeful Luke Hughes is going to be given a long look but no leeway, regardless of his current option situation says Twins general manager Terry Ryan: "Being out of options, that doesn't mean much. You just play the game," Ryan said. "Ultimately if they're one of the best 25, you keep 'em. If they're not, the decision comes from up here, which I don't particularly like, but we go through this every spring. ... I don't worry too much about that until the latter part of March." Hughes, who suffered a sprained shoulder while playing in Australia, has been cautiously re-introduced to playing time this spring, getting time as a DH until the team feels he is ready for throwing. After going 0-for-3 in last night’s game against Boston, he is now 0-for-6 to start spring training play. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Obviously it is hard to gauge a player’s ability based upon spring statistics. A year ago, Hughes was tearing through the Grapefruit League, leading the team with six home runs in 65 at bats. While the power display was impressive, the 17-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio was not. It turns out, his major league play in 2011 wound up playing out more closely associated with the strikeout-to-walk ratio than it was to the home runs. Last season, after having issues with handling pitches on the inner half, Joe Vavra had Hughes make some adjustments in order to better clear his hands. After a mid-season stint in Rochester, Hughes came back in August and showed off more of that power, hitting 4 home runs in 44 plate appearance…but also with a 14-to-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio that was very similar to his spring rate. Things grew worse in September as he finished the year 12-for-68 (.176) with a 17-to-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio. When he made contact, the changes helped him drive the ball better in the season’s final two months, even if his batting line didn’t show it. Star Tribune columnist and 1500ESPN host Patrick Reusse made an observation on his Twitter account, on Valentine’s Day no less, that Hughes has a glaring hole at the plate – specifically the outer half. Hughes did not take too kindly to Reusse’s social media scouting report and fired back at him in the only adorablely scary way a seemingly mad Australian can: Download attachment: Reusse_Hughes.JPG While it may have come off as a snide comment, Reusse was right. Hughes has struggled when being pitched away. According to Inside Edge, Hughes hold a .061 well-hit average (well-hit balls/swing) on pitches on the outer half of the plate. Of hitters who have had 250 or more plate appearances, Hughes’s outside well-hit average was the 11th-worst in baseball (new teammate Jamey Carroll’s .036 was the worst in baseball last year). Admittedly, the well-hit average is a subjective statistic. Inside Edge’s video scouts will determine whether or not a player hit a ball “well” (a hard grounder, liner, warning track fly, etc) that they felt was hit on the screws. So, while it is a judgment call, over the course of the season the team of video scouts has concurred with Reusse’s scrutiny. The Reusse/Hughes Twitter tussle reminded me of a pair of other stories involving writers calling major league hitters out on their shortcomings. In his book “Fantasyland”, Sam Walker used his press credentials afforded to him from the Wall Street Journal in hopes of accessing clubhouses to gain some insight that may help his fantasy baseball team win the experts-only T.O.U.T War league. At one point, Walker engaged then-Twins outfielder Jacque Jones in the Metrodome clubhouse. Walker came equipped with some stats to show Jones that he was failing magnificently against left-handed pitching, a fact that was so apparent to everyone else. When presented with this, Jones was unaware of what was basic common knowledge. He disagreed with Walker, even with the spreadsheet stats in his lap that showed the numbers that he was indeed owned by left-handed pitching. Torii Hunter, overhearing the conversation, said, to paraphrase, “Man, you are terrible against lefties.” Two years ago, Jon Sciambi, an ESPN broadcaster, wrote a great piece for Baseball Prospectus that involved the advancement of statistics within the mainstream broadcasts (I highly recommend reading the whole thing if you have not already). In it, Sciambi recanted the story he had with future Hall of Famer Chipper Jones: Perhaps Hughes, like the Joneses before him, was oblivious to the fact that he struggles with the outside pitch. It’s not entirely out of the question that a player does not recognize to what degree he cannot handle a certain pitch in a certain location. After all, Twins hitting coach Joe Vavra said that while he uses a plethora of data – including pitch f/x – he does not always share it with the “younger players” as it is an information overload. Then again, maybe Hughes was acutely aware of the problem and just did not want to hear it from a curmudgeonly local media personality through Twitter. You can’t blame him if that was the case. Overall, he’s made some good late season adjustments in 2011, hit well in the Australian Winter League where he worked with former Twin Glenn Williams on refining his swing, and the Twins risk losing him if they do not carry him. Ryan’s comments notwithstanding, Hughes has an inside track to a spot on the roster. Click here to view the article

While many fans will be focusing their attention on the more mainstream topics such as Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau’s health, Denard Span’s lingering concussion effects and Francisco Liriano’s resurgence, here are five things you can point out to your buddies as you watch games this month to make you seem like a genuine hipster seamhead: [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] (1) Nick Blackburn’s adjustments and repertoire. Much has been made this spring about Blackburn’s shift on the rubber from the first base side to the middle. While this may help him hit a few spots with his sinking fastball that he was not afforded from a few inches to the left, what you should really watch for is his new “over-the-top” arm action that he has transitioned towards. In addition to his health, this might be the biggest attribute for a rebound season in 2012. Why would this have anything influence? A more “over-the-top” arm action would translate into a higher release point and, much like I described with Kyle Waldrop, the higher release point combined with good sink gives hitters less of the ball to hit through the hitting zone and should lead to more ground balls and missed bats. Blackburn’s spring numbers has been impressive, for whatever emphasis you want to put on them. In 17 innings, he’s racked up a decent 12/4 K/BB ratio while allowing just four runs. Perhaps more importantly than those numbers was the pitching work behind them. In addition to getting gobs of grounders according to Phil Mackey’s statistics Blackburn held opponents to a 73% contact rate in Grapefruit League play, a rate that is significantly better than his regular season performance (he has a 88.4% contact rate). The question is, has his healthy arm allowed him to throw his slider again - a pitch he hasn’t thrown with regularly or effectiveness since 2009 - thereby incited more swing and misses this spring? Or has the new arm angle resulted in added movement? Is there some other factor in play? Blackburn’s new release point was on display during this spring’s Yankees broadcast. Unfortunately, MLB.tv did not archive the game in order to properly dissect and compare it to his previous motion. On the other hand, Blackburn is scheduled to pitch on April 9th at the home opener so there will be ample opportunity to begin examining the changes in both his arm action through the video as well as the movement results through pitch f/x system. (2) Alexi Casilla’s left-side leg kick. A week ago I wrote that Twins fans may be surprised at what Casilla may be capable of offensively. This was based on the highly volatile offseason league performance that provides little confidence in basing any conclusion off of: He finished the spring with a .300 average in a little under 50 plate appearances and, surprise!, an ailing hamstring that kept him out of play for the final games of the warm-up circuit. Despite the injury, he’s scheduled to be ready by opening weekend. One of the reasons I cling to some hope for Casilla was his emergence last year. After spending most of 2010 and 2011 performing like the slap-hitting second baseman we’ve come to expect, he made some adjustments to his left-handed swing which had the ball jumping off his bat. From May 1 onward, Casilla hit an impressive .281/.344/.408 in just shy of 300 plate appearances. Needless to say, the post-May 1 Casilla would be a great addition to the Twins lineup. The question is will he show up? Watch Casilla from the left-side of the plate. If he is stepping toward the pitcher prior to the pitch being thrown, he’s using a high-contact but low-impact type of swing that does not engage the lower half. If he is striding after the pitch is thrown, as he did post-May 1 last season, that’s a much more able to produce power (doubles power, let’s not get carried away here) from his legs and hips. (3) Scott Baker’s fastball velocity. After being one of the bright spots in the Twins rotation for half the season last year, because of his barking elbow, Baker will start the 2012 season on the disabled list. Spring has not been kind to him. His fastball’s velocity, the best pitch in his repertoire, had abandoned him, residing at 85-88 miles an hour in camp. That’s a range that has been well-below Baker’s standard average velocity in-season. Dating back to 2007, there were just a handful of outings in which the right-hander fell below the 90 mile per hour mark, most, I suspect, were injury related. Download attachment: Baker.jpg Meanwhile, in 2010, we witnessed what happens when he was unable to control his fastball and he was splattered across the diamond. Perhaps because of both location and the velocity, Baker was pummeled in his limited amount of work this spring – allowing seven hits, two for home runs, while striking out just one. This is disheartening for multiple reasons but biggest is that the promise he flashed in 2011 would be a welcomed addition to this rotation. Baker will make a start on Thursday with the Ft Myers Miracle and, if all goes well, he will be set to rejoin the team. If he makes it back to Minnesota this month, be sure to watch both the radar gun readings as well as where the catcher’s target is and where his fastball ends up. (4) Ryan Doumit’s plate discipline. Earlier this week I documented Doumit’s plate discipline improvements last year in Pittsburgh in conjunction with the increase in walks this spring. Obviously, this may be nothing more than a small sample size occurrence however, keep an eye on his at bats in April. Like Doumit, former Twin Jason Kubel had a similar experience last spring and while it did not translate into more walks during the regular season, Kubel came out and had a torrid first month. In his first 102 plate appearances, Kubel hit .351/.392/.511 with nine doubles and two home runs. Clearly, Kubel was dialed in and recognized what was “his pitch.” Even if his spring walks do not manifest into regular season walks, the meaningless free passes may be a sign that Doumit is seeing the ball well and laying off of breaking balls, off-the-plate fastballs and other trickery from the pitchers. The telling point will be if he is driving the ones that he chooses to swing at. (5) Matt Capps’ new pitch Download attachment: split finger.jpg While watching him warm up a week ago Tuesday at Ed Smith Stadium in Sarasota, a stadium which allows fans to saddle up next to the bullpen and view the pitcher’s getting loose from an amazing vantage point, I noticed Capps was tossing a few split-finger fastballs - an offering that was not among his regular arsenal. He’d let a few go and then confer with the bullpen coach about release or movement or whatever. Monitoring from above the pitcher’s mound, you could see that these pitches were moving fairly well down and in to right-handed hitters, a stark difference in comparison to his fastball and slider. For the most part, Capps has been a pitcher who has labored up in the zone. With mostly a fastball-slider combination and a forearm injury to boot, he struggled to (1) get hitters to miss (his swinging strike rate dropped from above 9% to 6% in 2011) and (2) getting ground balls (his ground ball rate plummeted from 50% to 40%). When he was on the mound, the bats were loud. The hope is that the splitty will provide a bit of speed deception as well as enough movement to entice a few more swing and misses. Unfortunately, new pitches are not always a magic elixir for what ails you. A year ago, Jose Mijares and the coaching staff raved about his new two-seamed fastball that was supposedly going to help him battled right-handed hitters better. That did not pan out so well for the newly minted Kansas City Royal. Most spring on-lookers have agreed that opponents have continued to make noise off of Capps, including nailing four home runs off of him. This may be a byproduct of him “trying new things” out there - including incorporating his splitty – but, if this continues into April, the more ominous question is if his arm is 100%. Watch for more two-strike splitters from Capps this April. The only impediment is if hitters continue to obliterate the ball before he gets to two strikes. Click here to view the article

Last year, as Brian Dozier’s offensive season sank deeper in the abyss, Andrew Bryz-Gornia at TwinkieTown pointed out how many different stances Dozier displayed. While the frequent changes in his batting stance acted as a visual barometer to his overall hitting struggles – the constant alteration a sign that he never was comfortable at the plate – his front side mechanics may have been one of the sources that led to his poor numbers. In 2012, Dozier’s swing contained a front foot landing which often remained closed at the point of contact but then was followed up with a delayed and inconsistent heel spin. What was happening was that Dozier’s upper body was pulling off of the pitch or spinning off the ball. Furthermore, the lack of a foot spin may have been a hint that Dozier’s overall mechanics were not entirely fundamentally correct and that he was not maximizing his hip contributions. The results were a high percentage of pitches pulled. Early on, this played to Dozier’s advantage however, when advanced scouts recognized this, he was pitched away more. Unable to make the in-season adjustment, Dozier’s numbers declined and the changes in his stance increased as frustration mounted while the core problem remained. Now in Fort Myers and reunited with his former minor league hitting coach, Tom Brunansky, Dozier has worked on improving his mechanics. MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger captured video of Dozier working in the cage this week with Brunansky providing instructions (nothing of interest, simple baseball jargon like “wait for yours”, “little bingo” and “how now brown cow”). What is shown is Dozier’s swing and the Twins middle infielder has solidified a few things on the front end: Download attachment: Dozier2.jpg Admittedly, this is cage work, in Florida, with a pitcher who is probably throwing 75%. That said, in these swings we see a firm front foot that opens with the swing – not after – and remains in place rather than having it fall off the towards the third base line. This is an indication that the hips and hands are working in unison and giving Dozier a more solid foundation to drive the ball. Likewise, with the added stability, that should give him the ability to better control the zone with his swing and drive a pitch on the outer-half to right field as opposed to turning it over to the left side of the infield. Even though he ultimately homers on this particular swing – a demonstration to his bat speed and strength – you can see that based on his front foot, he was not maximizing his hip rotation in his swing last year. Download attachment: Dozier3.jpg From the front view, notice how Josh Willingham’s strong hip rotation forces the front foot open (this is a trait shared by many power hitters in which the front foot rotates open with the swing): Download attachment: Willingham1.jpg With seven spring games expected to be broadcasted on Fox Sport North, keep an eye on Brian Dozier’s front leg during his swing. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: RNolasco.jpg Employment is not difficult to find if you are a moderately successfully and young starting pitcher in major league baseball. As an example, Ricky Nolasco has several four-year offers in discussion and, as Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal pointed out this morning, the Twins are making a strong push for his services. In a conversation last week his agent, Matt Sosnick, said Nolasco is seeking a five-year deal. While multiple teams are offering four-year deals it may be the team which submits a fifth year option that lands the free agent. “I look at options more about breaking a stalemate at the end of negotiation,” Sosnick said. “We’re talking to a lot of teams and we’re hoping to get five years on Nolasco. We’re talking with a lot of teams about a deal in the four-year range and what ends up happening is that if no one is willing to go to five year, people will use a club option for a fifth year.” The option year, Sosnick said, basically gives the pitcher some extra money in the form of a buyout but also provides the team an option to retain that pitcher’s services if they so desire. Based on reports that the Twins are making a “strong push” for Nolasco, it would be reasonable to assume the two sides are looking at the four-year plus option deal. Nolasco, who will be 31 in 2014, has been decisively average over his career but is coming off perhaps his best season since his age-25 season in 2008. Over his career, Nolasco’s actual numbers have performed worse than his projected numbers. His career ERA of 4.37 is significantly higher than what his 3.75 expected Fielding Independent rates would suggest. While his peripherals have been strong, his ability to strand runners once they reach base has been sub-par: His 69.2% left-on-base rate has been the sixth-lowest among starters since 2010 (minimum 500 innings pitched); part of the reason behind this is that, with runners on, Nolasco has a .288 average against (10th highest). To his credit, Nolasco’s seen a steady decline in his home run rate in each of the last three years, resulting in a career-low of 0.77 HR/9 this last season. One of the biggest changes in 2013 that may have played a role in this decrease was going inside with his fastball more often. Download attachment: Nolasco.PNG In general Nolasco eschews the fastball (just 47% vs 50% league average frequency) for his secondary offerings, mostly his slider. The slider has been a very good pitch for him despite some scouts suggesting it has not been as sharp as it had been earlier in his career. This past season, he was able to induce more swing-and-misses on it but, judging by the drop in chases out of the zone, does not have the same bite it once did. Download attachment: Nolasco_slider.PNG Durability-wise, he is almost as stalwart as they come. Dating back to 2008, Nolasco has accumulated 1,151.1 innings – the 24th most in baseball over that time – placing him alongside other workhorses. In that stretch, he has no arms issues whatsoever, but a tear in his meniscus (knee) took him out for 46 days in 2010. Naturally, the argument could be made that all that was before he turned thirty and the mileage accumulated early in his career could eventually catch up to him on the wrong side of 30. As Twins general manager Terry Ryan said of signing thirty-year-old pitchers last month: “I’d be very careful. I’d be careful”, he said, reflecting on the free agent market, “Because you know what happens with 30-year-olds.” Ryan’s concern is merited, both because of injury and increasing ineffectiveness. Nolasco’s contract would extend him in Minnesota from his age-31 to age-35 season and while he has not shown any signs of arm problems, there are plenty of examples of breakdown from even the biggest workhorses in the stable. The Twins recently requested Johan Santana’s medical records but Santana, who had been a perennial 200-inning hurler, started to suffer a multitude of ailments at age 32 which kept his innings total from his age-32 to age-34 seasons to just 117 innings. Likewise, effectiveness wanes noticeably as starting pitchers begin to approach their mid-life crisis. According to research produced by Fangraph.com’s Bill Petti and Jeff Zimmerman, a starting pitcher’s skills begin diminishing after the age of thirty and continue to regress from that point forward: Download attachment: Pitcher_Curves_Starters.jpg To be clear, this not meant as an indictment of a potential Nolasco signing, simply a warning of the price of doing business in the free agent market. As Ryan mentioned before, his ideal process of team building would be to avoid the aging talent for the younger arms. “In our position I’d rather go after an Alex Meyer, because we are more than one ace away,” Ryan said recently. “We’ve got a lot of work to do. You give me a No. 1 starting pitcher I’ll take him, but we finished 27 games behind the Tigers.” Obviously Nolasco does not project as an ‘ace’ or a number one starter (well, outside of the Twins rotation anyway) but he does provide the team with a valuable upgrade who can be filled in around moving forward. Alex Meyer, who has impressed during his time in Arizona this fall, could develop into the front-of-the-rotation type. With progress, Kyle Gibson has the potential of being a two or three in the rotation. A rotation of Meyer-Gibson-Nolasco plus others in 2015 does not sound too bad. Like Ryan said, the Twins have work to do and beginning with Nolasco is a decent start. Click here to view the article

So far this season Justin Morneau has seemed as comfortable facing lefties as Mitt Romney would as the opening act for a Phish concert. In spite of performing quite well against right-handed pitchers (hitting .310/.386/.561 and smacking 8 of his 10 home runs), among qualified hitters Morneau’s .100 average off of left-handed pitching (8-for-80 as of Wednesday) is the lowest in baseball. This is not simply a fluky situation; the Twins first baseman is completely lost mechanically at the plate against his left-handed brethren. Prior to the nasty concussion in 2010 Morneau had handled lefties decent enough over his career. Dating back to 2004, he had hit lefties at a .269/.319/.468 clip. However, since the knee to the head in Toronto, he has posted a .124/.167/.200 line against southpaws. Perhaps it is simply rust, an injury or maybe something psychologically about being in the batter’s box and a 90 mile per hour plus fastball that cross in front of your head. Maybe it is a combination of all three. Either way, whatever is responsible for this decline does not seem like an easy fix. Lending credence to the notion that it may be more rust or psychological rather than a physical ailment like his wrist or shoulder is the amount of times he is fool by sliders from left-handers now versus two years ago. According to pitch f/x data, in 2010, left-handed opponents threw him sliders 21% of the time. Morneau elected to swing at 53% of those thrown his way while whiffing at 14%. This year, opposing team’s have had their lefties increase the number of sliders (31%) in response to Morneau’s inability to layoff of the breaking pitch as he has swung at 70% of all left-handed sliders thrown his way while whiffing at 26% of them. This statistical breakdown leads one to believe that Morneau is struggling with pitch recognition out of the pitcher’s hand. To make matters worse, his mechanics – particularly against left-handed pitching – has become so abysmal that he’s unable to keep himself locked in on pitches when teams attack him on the outer-half of the plate. His batted ball distribution chart paints a disconcerting portrait of how far his skills against left-handers have eroded. Back in 2010 Morneau was much better at using the entire field. As same-sided hurlers would throw sliders and fastballs on the outer half of the strike zone, he would be able to deposit them all over the field. Now, as we have seen more recently this year, Morneau is having difficulty doing anything against lefties besides yanking the ball: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Morneau_batted_balls_v_lefties.jpg This is particularly ineffective when the majority of pitches to him are being thrown away. As noted above, Morneau is mechanically out of whack as well when it comes to swinging against lefties. Focus on his front side (hip) and compare his swing from 2010 (top) versus one from this past June against the Phillies’ Antonio Bastardo (bottom): http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Morneau_2010_leg_kick.gif http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Morneau_2012_June.gif You will notice that in his 2010 stance and mechanics, Morneau kept his feet closer together and made a long stride at the ball. Once he began his swing, he demonstrated the ability to keep his hip on the ball and open up along with his swing as his hands come to the ball. These traits were consistent throughout many of his clips that season. In the more recent version however, he had widen his stance thereby shortening his stride (perhaps in efforts to reduce the movement and improve contact). When he swings, his front side basically splays wide open well before his hands come through the hitting zone. Because his front side has already committed to opening up, Morneau has no choice but to pull the ball – even if it is located on the outer-half of the plate. This too, unfortunately, is a trait that also carries with him throughout many of his swing clips from this year and is not unique just to this match-up. With his issues at the plate continuing to progress, it became apparent that in the past week or so Morneau and hitting coach Joe Vavra have made some changes to his approach to combat this slide. The most notable of which is removing his leg kick altogether. Instead of the prominent leg lift and stride as seen in the clips above, Morneau is now simply lifting the heel of his front foot while keeping his toes firmly in the dirt: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Morneau_2012_July.gif http://apps.startrib..._2012_July2.gif Additionally, there seems to be more concentration on keeping his weight back and going the other way with the pitch (at least you can see this in the clip against Bruce Chen and the Royals or today with Darin Downs on the mound for the Tigers). The rationale behind this alteration seems to be focused on making contact by keeping him from drifting out with his front side. By not having a stride, Morneau’s hips will have less of a tendency to open up. Likewise, by minimizing the movement it allows him to keep his head still and in theory see the ball better. Of course, at the same time, this significantly reduces his power potential and it may be the reason why during Thursday’s game, Morneau went back to his original stride (with little success): http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Morneau_2012_July3.gif In addition to the season long woes against lefties, Morneau’s power has been MIA since June 4 when he hit his last home run. The ball just is not coming off of his bat the way it had previously. According to BaseballHeatMaps.com, before June 4 Morneau’s fly balls and line drives were travelling an average of 298.27 feet. Since then, that average has dropped to 259.89 and has resulted in five extra base hits in 101 plate appearances since his last home run. Given that he has made some changes, this indicates that he is not wholly comfortable at the plate. While he and Vavra are attempting to get back on course, it raises the larger question on whether he should continue to be used regularly against left-handed pitchers. With Morneau inserted in the fifth spot against southpaws and having him continue to produce at the abysmal rate that he has greatly diminishes the effectiveness of the lineup. The Twins have three games remaining before the All Star Break and in two of those they will be facing southpaws. This should be a good time to sit the first baseman out for a few games, giving him some added rest and time to concoct a game plan against lefties. Click here to view the article

When the Minnesota Twins signed Kurt Suzuki this past offseason the focus was on his defensive capabilities and his offensive abilities were basically an afterthought. “We wanted to add some leadership to help the pitching staff,” Twins assistant general manager Rob Antonysaid in March. “We went out and got some starting pitching, but we also wanted somebody to help them on defense. With Joe [Mauer] moving to first, we were willing to sacrifice some offense for defense.” So far this year, the leadership with the staff has not manifested into success in the rotation but, more surprising, is the fact that Suzuki has outhit the catcher emeritus. Coming into the season Suzuki had a .253/.309/.375 (average/on-base/slugging) career line. While the 74 plate appearances this season are nothing to base any accurate assessment on, it should be noted that he is hitting an unexpectedly robust .305/.397/.407 and his performance has been largely overshadowed by the production of players like Chris Colabello, Trevor Plouffe, Jason Kubel and Josmil Pinto. But with nearly a month in the books, this is starting to deserve attention. Under most circumstances this sort of spike would scream small sample size success ripe for regression -- after all, Suzuki’s career rates do not point to sustainability at this level. While there is likely regression in the future, Suzuki has made some adjustments at the plate that may stave off the decline. Below are two clips of Suzuki’s mechanics from 2013 with the Washington Nationals and this year with the Twins: http://i.imgur.com/4jUFOUc.gif http://i.imgur.com/avvL4Bu.gif The thing that should jump out is the stride and front-foot landing. With the Nationals Suzuki’s front foot would land almost straight at the pitcher. This year’s version has Suzuki landing with a closed front-side, having his front side aiming towards the second baseman and his foot strike closer to the plate. Suzuki changed to this style at some point following his late season trade from Washington to Oakland. Since the trade, he has been hitting .304/.380/.457 with a 9-to-12 strikeout-to-walk rate in 109 plate appearances. For Suzuki, an already above-average contact machine with good strike zone comprehension, this approach has greatly improved his coverage. According to ESPN/TruMedia’s data, from the beginning of 2012 until his trade to Oakland, Suzuki hit just .220/.270/.270 with a 17% swing-and-miss rate when being pitched away. Since then, he has posted a solid .308/.373/.423 with a 10% swing-and-miss rate on those same type of pitches. He also jumped from an 18% line drive rate to 27% line drive rate suggesting that the contact was superior as well. In addition to the success when being pitched away, Suzuki is seeing strong production on pitches up in the zone, another area he has struggled with in the past. Again, from 2012 until his trade to the Athletics, he hit .153/.279/.193 with a 16% swing-and-miss rate. Post-A’s trade, Suzuki has been hitting .414/.500/.483 with a 4% swing-and-miss rate on pitches up in the zone. These are both positive signs that Suzuki’s adjustment has been the source of his unexpected offensive numbers and not just a small sample size fluke. That being said, it is a small sample size and that fact cannot be ignored. Whatever the Twins can get out of Suzuki offensively that goes above and beyond the previous expectations is gravy. Now about that leadership for the starting rotation... Click here to view the article

Sponsored by Switch My Trip [/hr]Download attachment: USATSI_7948541.jpg Josh Willingham’s career may not be as finished as previously thought. Sure, not everyone thought he was washed up. Over the winter his agent -- Matt Sosnick of Sosnick Cobbe Sports -- reassured me that Willingham was strong like bull after his knee surgery in 2013. The procedure cleaned everything up and he was healthy. The message? Get ready because 2014 would be a rebirth of Willingham -- avert your eyes because you cannot handle the raw power! But that’s agent talk, right? An agent is supposed to be the best wingman alive, pumping a player’s tires even if the engine won’t start. Then, like those cartoon dynamite sticks with a 100 yards of fuse that fails to ignite while an animated coyote waits with his ears plugged behind a rock, the Twins waited for the big boom from Willingham that never came this spring. Yes, spring training statistics are wholly meaningless but scouts look for signs of life and Willingham’s performance had a very weak pulse. He accumulated just three hits in 50 spring plate appearances and one of those happened to be a wall-scraping home run at Boston’s JetBlue Park in the final practice game of the year. Based on that, the assumption was that Willingham was continuing where he left off in 2013. Last season, bogged down with a knee injury, he finished with his worst season at the major league level. While playing in 111 games, he turned in a .208/.342/.369 line with 128 strikeouts. With his highest whiff rate and lowest power output, there were rumblings that the 34-year-old was simply stranded. [/hr]The Twins are looking to switch things around this year. Every week, Metro Transit recognizes a Twins player who successfully switched the outcome of a game for the better. [/hr]Willingham made it just six games into the 2014 season before Cleveland’s Justin Masterson sent him to the infirmary again with a fastball that ran in on Willingham’s wrist. After a rehab stint in Rochester that seemed as disappointing as his spring production, Willingham looked to be poised to flounder again. Only he has not. Since returning to the team on May 26 he has flipped a switch and posted a .316/.467/.632 batting line with five home runs and a 14/14 K/BB ratio in 75 plate appearances. Only Lonnie Chisenhall, Miguel Cabrera, Nelson Cruz, Alex Gordon and Edwin Encarnacion in the American League have put up better slugging percentages in that time while his extra nerdy .464 weighted on-base average is only bested by Chisenhall and Gordon. While some may want to consider this as his dead-cat bounce, there are some positive signs in this small sample size that may indicate that this is truly a health rebound and not a fluke, the most notable sign being how improved his plate coverage is in comparison to last year. Part of Willingham’s game is being able to extend those meaty arms in order to pull pitches to left field. Without a stable base to support those Popeye forearms, there would be little ability to drive the balls that are thrown on the opposite side of the plate. This was evident last year. If you divided the plate into thirds, according to ESPN/tTruMedia, last year Willingham slugged .538 (7 HR) on the inside, .438 (7 HR) in the middle and .224 (0 HR) on the outer portion. That is in stark contrast to his output in his impressive 2012 season where he slugged .526 (8 HR) inside, .642 (16 HR) middle and .422 (11 HR) outside. Visually, you can see how different his season with a knee-injury (2013) is versus a healthy season (2012) and how that injury affected his ability to drive the ball on the outer half for power. It is amazing how abrupt his power ended at the middle portion of the strike zone: https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/irdDu0jmJLvWzWVFGW-c-PcvqycUp-ZR5mGIxTJ0-L0jtbxnnPfnVip2Gct42VOx6MOoWRX6eNBePkWFi1Pn3XcHTG6U98Ye5SgoAhHjAvVUCZ2wzsAEcraPfO6psErqGQ Fast forward to this season and Willingham’s tendencies are mirroring his 2012 season in which he has been able to drive the ball on the outer-half with authority. Statistically in 2014, he is slugging .649 because he has tagged three of his five home runs from the outside portion of the zone. Here is how that looks visually with his slugging percentage this year: https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/9mmzKXBOnS8hVL3iKLckOiO-LG7wva48wCKxgVOqJSF4Eg1v6t6Lx4gprrrnL2FyjM59wRqsDIRcTcv8pzKuW0uvgvUIXa4sbjhqtFctlMcUVtr_KNlvM3rl3339HQqcdA Willingham is not only able to connect with those pitches that are thrown away but he’s able to drive them a long way from home. This is important because this is the region that opponents have attacked him most frequently rather than risk throwing inside: https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/kNsvZWkxKgYBRW16indr8MKF5aHROoT1D0YoveXHw5Np0ivUF91ziJF0FQYSy1tS6ueLUvsnBxMCCrMBcEaayKN6IkK3ekh8etAbR8dQSY_4cuNquI5iS9lshUGT2EO50Q Beyond just the heat maps that may confuse the color-blind, here are two visual examples with a fastball on the outer-half where one turned into a left-center field home run and the other a foul out to first base: https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/_YJ27DoFU7D9_Jm5Io3MJVWwoJOzrdOJByBYux9pdJrRpV0LKbIoLKETLS82F6jqQAb-Fe2c2JzkW3ECjqPxVFE7PzJrvTckee2X9BV-QGysRbO4XubhLb8eAYkkpfD6kQ This may be the smallest of small sample sizes when drawing a two-swing comparison but overall this shows the discrepancy accurately: this year he is able to drive the outside pitch whereas in 2013 he was not. At his age and his health history, it is difficult to say how long this production will last. Still, at the very least, Willingham is now doing the things that he was doing in his successful 2012 that he was not in 2013. Depending on how you look at it, this is an inflation for his trade deadline value or an offensive weapon to help the Twins combat the rest of the AL Central. [/hr]Why fight traffic and parking? Say ‘Switch My Trip’for the next Twins game. Metro Transit can provide you and your whole family a train ride to the game. Planning your trip is as easy as clicking on this link. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: USATSI_7913715.jpg With just a few days remaining before the Twins were to travel to Chicago to begin the 2014 season, Chris Parmelee got the sickening news that his services would not be needed at the major league level. Out of options, the Twins were willing to expose him to waivers and risk losing him to another organization. As an additional gut punch, all of the other organizations in baseball said “eh, no thanks”. Shortly after receiving the news at Hammond Stadium, Parmelee had the appearance of someone who had just died, the exact person whom Jake Taylor was referring to in the movie Major League. In the clubhouse that morning, he was walking in a daze, slowly packing items from his locker and trying to process what had just happened. Occasionally a player or coach would walk by and offer some platitudes. In front of a handful of media members in the offices at the stadium, Twins assistant GM Rob Antony remarked that Chris Colabello out-performed him and then mentioned a few adjustments that the team was hoping Parmelee would make if he made the decision to stay with the organization. “[Parmelee] needs to regroup. He hasn’t gotten the job done,” Antony explained. “He’s had opportunities. We need him to be a run-producer. He needs to be a profile guy who can play first base, play the corner outfield positions and drive in runs. And to me, he’s become way too passive at the plate, taking pitches, taking strikes, taking first-pitch fastballs down the middle. He needs to go up there with the mentality that he’s going to do some damage trying to be aggressive.” Ultimately, with $242,200 of salary on the line to stay with the Twins, Parmelee accepted his reassignment to Rochester and went to work improving his offense. In regards to Antony's and the Twins’ assessment of Parmelee being too passive, the numbers do not necessarily reflect that notion. In most circumstances -- taking first-pitch fastballs in the zone or taking pitches in general -- Parmelee is right around league average. In fact, last year Parmelee held an above-average swing rate in hitter's counts (48% vs the 44% league-average rate according to ESPN/TruMedia). More than likely, the Twins just wanted him to swing aggressively -- not so much in which circumstance. Parmelee’s 2014 season, his third tour of the International League, started off with a bang. He compiled seven home runs in 32 games, putting himself near the top of the leaderboard. Naturally, the reaction from the fan base was that this performance was nothing new -- after all, those who remember his 2012 season in Rochester will recall that he dropped 17 dingers in 64 games before posting yawn-inducing numbers in 2013. How was this output any different than the circumstances in 2012? Was Parmelee simply a AAAA player, one destined to wax AAA pitching but never make the jump in the major leagues? The biggest reason why this season is likely more comparable to the 2012 year (and provides the hope that this is finally his breakthrough) has to do with him regaining the aggression in his swing. In 2013 and during spring training, Parmelee had changed his swing from the previous year. What Parmelee demonstrated last year was a more contact-oriented approach in his swing, specifically his lower-half. Parmelee implemented a toe-tap in his stride that may have reduced his ability to drive the ball: http://i.imgur.com/EBGa5nD.gif This approach followed him into spring training this year, which the Twins evaluators took note of: http://i.imgur.com/pSqCaij.gif Perhaps the realization that he could be jobless encouraged Parmelee to make changes. Whatever the reason, wherever the encouragement came from, Parmelee began to swing with more vigor. It was during this stretch that we see his transition from the toe-tap to the full leg-lift which led to seven home runs in 32 games: http://i.imgur.com/4fPXBre.gif That method has continued upon his call up to Minnesota: http://i.imgur.com/HuPgetr.gif With this swing, Parmelee is able to engage his hips better and generate more power, as we have seen with his prodigious home runs. The Twins challenged Chris Parmelee to become more aggressive at the plate. He did. Will this power continue? Like the adaptations that Chris Colabello and Trevor Plouffe made to their swings, the real test comes with how they respond once pitchers change their approach. As has been the case with Colabello and Plouffe, pitchers have worked them away more often and that has sent them into prolonged funks. It is possible that Parmelee’s newfound aggression could be used against him -- like fewer fastballs and more off-the-plate pitches. [/hr]Because the Twins won yesterday, you can get a half price large or extra-large pizza today (Friday) from PapaJohns.com when you use the promo code TWINSWIN. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Braun.jpg No one would blame Liam Hendriks if he wakes up in the middle of the night because of some horrific dreams involving Ryan Braun. After all, the Brewers outfielder tormented Hendriks throughout the afternoon, going 2-for-2 with a pair of home runs and a walk. Braun has inspired fear in all of baseball’s pitchers - now amassing 19 home runs thanks to his multi-homer day at Target Field - and Milwaukee’s big right-handed bat showed why he’s such a good hitter, grinding through a nine-pitch match-up in the third inning and finally got Hendriks to throw something that he could handle. After falling behind 1-2 in the count, Braun made Hendriks labor and fouled off three pitches, working himself into a full count and drove the Hendriks’ fastball into the right field flower bed for an opposite field home runs – a rare feat for a right-handed hitter a Target Field. “Braun’s a strong guy and knows what he’s looking for,” said manager Ron Gardenhire. “He knows how to come to the plate and knows how to protect. He fights off some pitches and finally gets to a pitch he can do something with.” Meanwhile, one pitch later, Aramis Ramirez would pull a first-pitch slider over the fence, giving Milwaukee a quick four run lead, ample cushion for Brewers’ starter Michael Fiers who kept the Twins hitters off-balanced with an array of pitches including a very good cutter and slow curve. Fiers managed to avoid any damage from the league’s hottest hitter, Trevor Plouffe, by bypassing the strike zone altogether, walking him in two of their three match-ups on the afternoon. In all, Plouffe would be walked three times in the game – a career-high for the Twins third baseman. Whether this was a strategy implemented by the Brewers in response to Plouffe’s monumental month is unknown, but Gardenhire gave him plenty of credit for not caving into those pitches out of the zone. “Trevor didn’t chase, he didn’t give in. Whether they are pitching around him or not, I don’t know but I know he didn’t chase the pitches and force the issue.” Braun, Plouffe’s off-season workout compatriot, would strike again in the fifth, sending his second home run on the day in the bullpen and equaling Plouffe’s multi-home run game from the night before. In response to the second shot, Hendriks said it was not his intention of giving Braun something he could handle on that particular pitch. “I threw a slider which I did not get it off the plate enough – I was trying to get it away off the plate for a ball – and I left it a little bit over and he put a good swing on that one as well” The three home runs allowed by Hendriks on the day was the sixth time this season one Twins pitcher has allowed a trifecta of home runs in a game. Despite being hit with the loss, Hendriks’ day was not all bad. In five innings he did strikeout five, walked just one and coaxed seven ground ball outs to just two fly ball outs but, in a rare defensive off-day for Jamey Carroll, the veteran second baseman committed two errors – just the second time he has done so in one game in his career. Had Carroll been able to corral the second inning grounder or held on to the foul pop from Braun in the fifth, Hendriks may have come away from his first start back in Minnesota since the May demotion a little less scathed. Still Hendriks, who was coming off a 125-pitch start for Rochester seven days ago, did not look crisp as he fell behind hitters early in the game and had required 39 pitches through the first two innings. Being behind shifted the advantage to the Brewers’ offense, which took control of the game. “I think you saw Hendriks behind in the count quite a bit,” said Gardenhire. “He left his breaking ball up a couple of times and they made him pay for it, banged it out of the ballpark.” Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Worley.jpg After his start on Opening Day, I chatted with Twins starter Vance Worley about his on-going efforts to add a change-up to his arsenal. Worley’s response was that he had not been quite comfortable throwing this particular pitch. Being a “feel” pitch, the right-hander bounced between throwing a split-finger change and a more conventional circle changeand he admitted to rarely throwing a change-up[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] On Saturday at USCellular Field, Worley told reporters after his start that he threw two change-ups to the White Sox lead-off hitter, Alejandro De Aza. In the second pitch of the game, Worley tossed an 80 mile per hour change in the middle of the zone that De Aza fouled off to move it to a 0-2 count. After a fastball for a ball, Worley went back to the change. This time, De Aza jacked it for a solo home run. Here’s what Worley said after that game: It was the only really bad pitch in Worley’s otherwise flawless afternoon – one in which he struck out seven in seven innings while allowing just five hits. In terms of his on-going development process, we see that Worley may not be quite ready to throw the change regularly. On that particular change to De Aza, we see a few things. The first is that he used a split-change – as you can see by his grip: Download attachment: Worley_Splitchange.PNG A split-change is a downgraded version of the split-finger fastball, in which a pitcher spreads the index and middle finger some, giving it some vertical drop while decreasing the velocity. Of the three he threw on Saturday, Worley’s change showed a velocity decrease of 7-to-9 miles per hour compared to his fastball, adding some needed deception. The issue, as Worley said a few weeks ago, is gaining the “feel” for the pitch – ball guy lingo for being able to locate at will. This offering to De Aza did not reach the intended target, in fact, it drifted all the way back over the plate into the Chicago outfielder’s swing zone. Here we see Mauer’s requested target – down and away where change-ups have a high percentage of success. Note the red circle where the pitch actually reached the zone: Download attachment: Worley_Target.jpg Download attachment: Worley_Location.jpg What we can deduce from this is that Worley’s changeup is still very much a work in progress. It’s possible that instances like this may shake his confidence in the pitch and keep him from using it, especially considering he threw it only one other time after the De Aza at-bat. Still, with his two-seam sinking fastball, his cutter and slow curve, Worley was able to keep the White Sox lineup from doing any further damage. The extra pitch may eventually be just a “show-me” pitch that is used sparingly. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Morneau.jpg In early July Justin Morneau had been plodding through a season in which he was completely lost at the plate against left-handed pitching. Even though his performance against right-handed pitchers was classic Morneausie, against the sinister his swing was basically a clusterbleep. His front side leaking so far open, he was left with little choice but to pull the ball. Left-handed opponents attacked this weakness by throwing more sliders which would run away from his swing zone. He flailed away helplessly as southpaws painted the outer-half of the plate and anything he did manage to put lumber on was typically bounced to the right side of the infield. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] By the end of June his average against lefties had sunk to below .100 and was the worst in baseball. In a little over a month however Morneau has doubled that average - .174 heading in to last night’s game – and, what’s more, his swing has looked 100 times better. Last night, the Twins’ Director of Baseball Communications, Dustin Morse, highlighted Morneau’s improvement against same-sided pitchers by tweeting this: Download attachment: Morse.JPG Now, the answer could be as simple as a small sample size fluctuation and that his suppressed batting average on balls in play was due to shoot up once the Baseball Gods felt like blessing the Canadian. However, just a few weeks before this streak started, Morneau made a noticeable adjustment to his approach at the plate. While this tweak lasted just a handful of games, the Twins first baseman emerged a different hitter. Morneau, who had a sizeable stride accompanied by a hearty swing, was hitting just .229/.301/.435 heading into the final June series against the Kansas City Royals when he made the changes. Instead of the leg lift, Morneau would lift only his heel, keeping his toes stationary which would likely increase his connectivity and, more importantly, help him refrain from opening up his front side. As I described back in the beginning of July: This mechanical adjustment did not last long – somewhere around five games – and Morneau returned to his previous swing on July 5. But this practice seems to have righted the ship and helped him stay on the ball better. In addition to the improved numbers against left-handed pitching, he hit .313/.360/.488 overall in 86 plate appearances (not including last night’s game against Boston). He had gone from striking out in 20% of his plate appearances pre-July 5 to striking out in just 10% of his plate appearances since then. In short, Morneau appears to be on the right path both against righties and lefties. Friday night, look for him continue this success against Boston’s rookie lefty Felix Doubront – who has limited left-handed hitters to a .229 average. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: span-diving.jpg On Thursday night, Denard Span played in his first game in 10 days since injuring his clavicle on a Jeff Keppinger line drive on August 12. Span’s absence triggered yet another debate amongst Twins fans and pundits alike who questioned the team’s inability to properly handle their disabled. Rather than place Span on the DL a day or two after the injury appeared to be more than simply a day-to-day situation and keep the dugout stocked with healthy bodies, the Twins allowed the situation to drag on for over a week – culminating in an MRI attempt that never happened because of Span’s claustrophobia. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]Of course, Span is not the Twins’ first encounter with a prolonged injury this year either. Prior to Span’s ordeal, it was Trevor Plouffe who had the extended time off. On July 20, Plouffe bruised his thumb on his throwing hand and left the game against the Royals early. The prognosis at the time was that it was originally thought of as day-to-day. It took seven days before he was placed on the DL only to finally return on August 13. Before Plouffe it was Justin Morneau who, at the end of April, re-injured his surgically repaired wrist. Morneau missed three games in May in addition to five calendar days before the Twins ultimately made the move to put him on the DL. At some point, these missed games add up. Clearly, I’m not a doctor. I diagnose most injuries regardless of the severity with Vitamin I (Ibuprofen) and a few (dozen) Grain Belt Premiums. The Twins, on the other hand, have (presumably) a well-paid, well-educated medical staff that should, by most accounts, identify and set out a clear path of recovery. Yet, somehow, these injuries and ailments – no matter how seemingly minor – continue to drag out and leave the team short-handed for extended periods of time. Truthfully, I have no idea on how the internal decision process is made to DL or not to DL but it appears that the team puts the onus on the players on these ostensibly innocuous injuries. It harkens back to 1993’s The Program, in which James Caan’s character asked one of his football players if he was hurt or injured; the difference being, if he was hurt, he could still play. In Span, Plouffe and Morneau’s case, the players communicated to the medical and coaching staff that they were simply hurt and that they could play in no time. The response from each was “I’ll be fine in a day or two.” For instance, the Star Tribune’s LaVelle Neal wrote that the team was counting on Span to let them know if or when he’s able to suit back up: Like Span, Plouffe told reporters and coaches that he would expect to miss “a day” at that time. Ron Gardenhire told reporters after the game that “We've all done that as a hitter -- you get a deep bone bruise right in there and it's pretty painful. So we'll give him a day or two with a little ice and treatment, and he should be back in there." Similarly, after the decision was made to send Morneau to the disabled list, then acting manager Scott Ullger told reporters that “It’s up to him to let us know when he can play.” This has become a crappy policy. After two seasons it is obvious that the players cannot be counted on to do this kind of determination. They have machismo and often millions at stake. They certainly WANT to play, there’s no question there. To be fair, the players are the ones actually playing and feeling the pain so they should have an open dialogue with the coaching staff but, ultimately, should they be the influential factor when contemplating the well-being of the roster? Again, I’m not a doctor – if you needed the reminder. I am a baseball analyst who relies on statistics and data and I have little to no baseline to judge or rate the Twins organization’s methods against another. There is no Wins Above Replacement Level For Guys Your Just DL’ed found on Fangraphs.com. A measuring stick does not exist (it should and some enterprising researcher needs to take up the cause). What does seem obvious is that playing short-handed hinders the team to some degree. Now, whether or not summoning someone like Clete Thomas or Chris Parmelee would have changed the outcome is certainly debatable but it would seem that continuing down this path regularly puts a team in a deficit. Had this been a contending team, a few games lost because of the disabled list indecision could have cost them vital ground in the standings. The policy in the Twins clubhouse regarding injuries needs to be re-examined and return rehabilitated in 2013. Click here to view the article

Hitting coach Joe Vavra recently shared some ideas behind what was causing the drought at the plate with the Pioneer Press’s Tom Powers. Plenty of factors played into the team’s offensive ineptitude but for those who did make it to the plate, Vavra felt that the approach was fundamentally lacking: Despite some fans objections to the contrary, Joe Vavra comes off as a smart, intelligent and process-oriented hitting coach. I have personally never had the opportunity to meet with him however in interviews and articles about him, he comes off as someone who has a keen understanding of the art and science of hitting. After all, as stated in this column and in previous interviews, he has a history of checking data to assist in his techniques and teachings – and advanced viewpoint coming from a position that has historically been of the “see ball, hit ball, spit chew, little bingo, how now brown cow” ilk. In that particular piece, Vavra does not outright say what constitutes “struggling” or rather which metric he uses to gauge that, however, he cited batting average a number of times. Because pull-hitting often takes a toll on a player’s average, you can see why the Twins would want to discourage this practice. Using more of the field is an indication that a hitter is able to handle more pitches in more zones. For example, if a right-handed hitter gets too pull-happy and attempts to turn on a pitch on the outer-half, odds are they will be pulling something towards the shortstop rather than “going with the pitch” to right field. In theory, opposing teams will recognize this and attack the outer-half more which will incite a player to turn-over on the pitch more often and drag down his batting average. This more or less seems to be what Vavra is saying happened to the 2011 squad, particularly the young right-handed hitters. Given that the Twins cycled through a greater number of younger hitters through the lineup that hit from the right side (Trevor Plouffe, Luke Hughes, Drew Butera, Joe Benson, etc) Vavra’s theory makes sense. Not surprising, the data indicates that the right-handers turned on 29.9% of their balls in play – a sizeable jump from the 24.3% pull rate in 2010. As such, righties hit .237 as a group, their lowest in the past three seasons: http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-_hKDcxyuj2I/TzyTeNq-oVI/AAAAAAAAAT0/cYEjF4OJWXA/s1600/RHB_Pulling.jpg Now, the batted ball data shows the outcome but it clearly does not show intent. That is something that hitting coaches can detect and video can reveal a bit more on what a hitter was trying to do when being pitched away. While a near 30% pull rate is high, there may be more outer-half pitches that hitters attempted to pull but directed them towards center instead of right field. What data might show some of that is the precipitous drop in using the opposite field successfully over the past three years. The idea is that if a hitter is focused on going oppo, the result should be better: http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-NLvtY0KW4pI/TzyTkrDc0iI/AAAAAAAAAT8/_MP1V7hKNUw/s1600/RHB_Oppo.jpg As you can glean, the 2011 Twins were considerably less successful at going the opposite direction than their predecessors. If the 2011 lineup was indeed less focused on driving shots to right field, it is reflective in those splits. So, redirecting those players who may have grown too pull-happy like Trevor Plouffe or Danny Valencia back towards the big part of the field may help bolster their batting average but what of the power? As I’ve written about extensively here, Target Field plays more favorably for pull hitters. This offseason, Josh Willingham and Ryan Doumit were added to the lineup and both hitters showed clear pull tendencies over their careers. In Willingham’s case, he moved to Oakland and grew increasingly pull-happy to combat the spacious park. Although he set a career high in home runs (29) that came at the expense of over 20 batting average points and a significant amount of on-base numbers. If the team wants the home runs added to the repertoire, they should encourage Willingham to keep the same approach he had as an Athletic. Not long ago, the Twins tinkered with Hardy’s approach at the plate, suggesting he was getting too pull-happy. Hardy had incorporated the opposite-field mentality to his approach which the Orioles hitting coach told him to forget. Not only did Hardy’s batting average remain at a high level after going back to being a pull hitter, he also jacked 30 home runs. Will Vavra allow Willingham and Doumit to retain their approaches? Of course it is up to the individual but it sounds as if Vavra had his way, it sounds like he would discourage the pair from this method. According to Tom Powers’ column, the Pioneer Press scribe posited the question if power hitters should try “to yank the ball” to which Vavra replied “I’d challenge them on that”. The reasoning behind Vavra’s contention was never clarified but I would speculate that it has to do with what amounts to a batting average drain. Clearly, talent certainly played a key factor in the degeneration of the batting average from the right-side for the Twins but the inexperience and the pull-heavy tendencies also contributed. The old adage “hit it where it’s pitched” applies. Still, pulling the ball is not as big of an enemy to the offense as some would think. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: marcum_shaun640_640.jpg The worst kept secret in baseball is that teams need an abundance of starting pitching. Like crack, you can never have enough. Also, pitching, like crack, can be an expensive endeavor – particularly when you need a lot of it. And this is exactly the position the Twins are in so said the team’s general manager, Terry Ryan, during his offseason apology tour. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] In a recent interview with Twins Daily’s John Bonnes, Ryan admitted that his financial resources may keep the team from chasing the Zack Greinke’s of the world (shocker), but the team will be scouring the market for top of the rotation help. (The interview’s entirety can be found the Offseason Handbook in which Ryan expands on this topic and many more.) If the team is looking to maximize the return on a smaller investment, one such arm Ryan should be zeroing in on in the free agent market is the 30-year-old Shaun Marcum. If you were looking just at the radar gun, you would likely be nonplussed at Marcum’s fastball. Indeed, his 87.2-mph fastball over his career would incite plenty to label him yet another soft-tossing pitcher. After all, he shares the same career fastball velocity as one flame-thrower Bruce Chen. Recognizing his weakness Marcum uses his fastball extremely sparingly. Dating back to 2007, outside of the knuckleballers, only Roy Halladay (33.8%) has used his fastball less frequently than Marcum (38.2%). Once he gets ahead in the count – which we has more often than not – hitters have a better odds of seeing Halley’s Comet than his fastball. And it is his plethora of off-speed and breaking pitches that makes him so impossible to make contact against. Again, since 2007, Marcum has registered the sixth-highest swinging strike rate in baseball behind such luminaries as Cole Hamels, Johan Santana, CC Sabathia, Tim Lincecum, Ryan Dempster and Max Scherzer. That’s right: He missed more bats than Justin Verlander. Now, this has not translated into a ton of strikeouts but it shows that he is consistently confounding opponents. What makes Marcum so effective in spite of the town ball-level velocity is his ability to keep the fastball away off the plate while mixing in a variety of pitches and speeds that make hitters’ heads’ spin. Take a look at this year’s heat map of his pitch location: Download attachment: Marcum.jpg To both sides, he served every down and away. The reason this is noteworthy is because this area is perhaps the most difficult for a hitter to square up and certainly one of the hardest areas to pull consistently. Furthermore, Marcum’s ability to change speeds to the mid-70s to 80 back to the upper 80s on almost any pitch keeps opponents from cheating on the outer-half. As we have seen at Target Field, it can reward hitters who can yank pitches into the right and left field stands thus having someone who keeps the ball away from those looking to do heavy damage is in the Twins’ best interest. In short, his ability to miss bats and keep hitters from pulling the ball with lethal intent would play very favorably as a potentially number two starter in Minnesota. So, what are the odds the Twins could end up with him? The Royals, Cubs and Blue Jays all may be landing places for Marcum. In fact, in an interview with a Toronto radio station, Marcum expressed interest in returning to the Blue Jays where he had been a member of the organization from when he was drafted in 2003 until being traded to the Brewers after the 2010 season. Marcum said that he would welcome a homecoming to his original team in part because of the coaching and training staff which he had a strong relationship. Presumably, Marcum’s past injury history (Tommy John in 2008) and recent flare up in Milwaukee this year (right elbow tenderness with required a trip to the 60-day DL) will likely drop his stock among all suitors. Even the Brewers, who have seen him up close and are just a year removed from a 200-inning season, have maintained radio silence with him and his agent. This probably does not bode well for his immediate financial future. As a result, his price range is likely going to fall towards more of a one-year plus incentives in order to rebuild his value while still in his early 30s (he’ll be 31 in December), at which point he can explore a longer, more lucrative deal on the market. The Twins have plenty of holes to fill and, sad to admit, a finite budget, therefore a one-year deal for a pitcher of Shaun Marcum’s caliber would be in Terry Ryan’s best interest. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Kubel.jpg Consider it phase two of Terry Ryan’s sinister plan, Getting The Band Back Together: According to 1500ESPN.com’s Darren Wolfson, the Twins have inked Jason Kubel to a minor league deal. In November Pioneer Press's Mike Berardino wrote that outfielder Jason Kubel, who was released by the Cleveland Indians earlier in the day, would be interested in a reunion with the Minnesota Twins. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] "Yeah, for sure,” Kubel said. “I loved it here. I really miss the guys. I had a great relationship with Gardy, Andy (pitching coach Rick Anderson), (Joe) Vavra — all the coaches and the few players I remember that are still there. I love the guys over there.” Kubel certainly loved the guys, but he had a different feeling towards the ballpark. When he departed to Arizona as a free agent, he reminisced about Target Field: "It's no secret that a lot of people didn't like Target Field to hit there," he said. "I just feel like here, I can use the whole field and still put up power numbers instead of trying to pull the ball in the air to get it out. I did get in trouble trying to do that too often, and it showed in the numbers." But he cannot blame Target Field for his 2013 woes. In his first year in Phoenix, Kubel thrived. He posted the second-best OPS of his career. He mashed 30 taters. He justified the first-half of his two-year, $15 million dollar contract. And then? Pfft. Nothing. What happened? One of Kubel's biggest issues in 2013 was his inability to handle fastballs. According to ESPN Stats & Info, in 2012 Kubel hit .298/.368/.616 with 20 home runs and a whopping .309 well-hit average. That dropped considerably in 2013 when he finished the year hitting .261/.315/.400 with just 3 home runs and a well-hit average of .171 off of fastballs. Download attachment: Kubel_strike-zone_2013.jpg (2012) Download attachment: Kubel_strike-zone_2012.jpg (2013) Opponents attacked the upper portion of the zone more in 2013 (37% versus 30% in 2012) and Kubel’s lack of bat speed resulted in far less contact and power output. While Kubel may be a bounce back candidate after his 2013 season, the Twins are not in need of a corner outfielder or designated hitter at this point. Oswaldo Arcia, in theory, can provide just as much production as the former Twin can. Nevertheless, the minor league agreement provides the Twins will some needed veteran depth without clogging the major league roster with additional corner outfielders and designated hitters. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: USATSI_7806089.jpg When the Minnesota Twins unloaded Denard Span and Ben Revere in one offseason, they envisioned Aaron Hicks being the bridge in center field to their super prospect, Byron Buxton. The torch, for the time being, was being passed along from Kirby to Torii to Denard to Aaron. “I would love to be the next in line,” he proclaimed in the Twins’ clubhouse on Opening Day last year before everything went awry. Perhaps in hindsight it was unfair of the Twins to lean on a kid fresh off a Double-A season and expect him to fill the integral role of leadoff hitter while [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]manning a vital up-the-middle position. Certainly on paper the idea appeared tantalizing, particularly in the batting order. With his plus speed, switch-hitting capabilities and the tendencies to draw walks in the minors, he had the pedigree of a top of the lineup guy. On the field, this theory quickly devolved when he was obviously overmatched and overwhelmed. This season, however, the Twins expect things to be different for the center fielder. “I think he has a lot less pressure on him than he did last year,” Twins assistant GM Rob Antony said after news that Houston had claimed his competition Alex Presley off the waiver wire. “I think everything went so well for him in the spring that when the [2013] season started, that he just expected for it all to continue and went it didn’t he went ‘uh-oh, what am I doing wrong, what can I do differently?’ I think he’s a little calmer and I don’t think he’s getting too wrapped up with everything.” Improving the approach Hicks said he spent a significant portion of the offseason and spring working on his offensive weaknesses from the left-side -- driving the ball the other way and focusing on a game plan. Last year, the latter issue involved constantly finding himself at the mercy of the pitcher rather than attacking the ball in hitter’s counts. When he was up in the count, Hicks hit a very good .295/.396/.659 versus right-handed pitching. On the other hand, he was a .124/.140/.188 when he was behind in the count. The biggest difference was that he was ahead in the count in just 54 plate appearances and behind in another 114. As far as the former goes, Hicks believes if you watched closely this spring, you have seen a change in his style. “Typically, in the minor leagues, I pulled a lot,” he said. “If you looked at my spray charts, sure, but this spring training has been everything to left.” Though he managed a handful of hits while slashing the ball to left field in 2013, it rarely came with a punch. Of the 47 balls he hit the other way, only two were considered well-hit by Inside Edge’s video scouts. This spring he has seen a few more balls ripped that direction, including tagging one against the St. Louis Cardinals in Jupiter, only to be thwarted in his efforts by a diving Stephen Piscotty. Hicks said this progress has been made with hand-bleeding amounts of front-toss work and trying to react to pitches on the outer-half of the zone -- a factor that will be crucial for success if right-handed pitchers implement the same strategy as they did last year. According to ESPN/trumedia’s stats, 56% of the total offerings Hicks saw in the left-handed batter’s box were on the outer third of the zone. As a switch-hitter, he says he has a different approach from each side. “This offseason the focus was on the left and now I’m starting to do both, gotta get both ready for the season,” Hicks said. “Right-handed I tend to swing more, lefty I’m more patient. I try to look for a pitch. I tend to have more of a plan because I’ve had so much more at bats from the left-side, where as right-handed I get 100 at bats a year so I kind of just come out ready to swing.” It is amazing, too, the difference in how southpaws approach him versus the righties. Last year, right-handed pitchers threw the ball in the zone 47% of the time while the left-handed counterparts breached the zone 55% of the time. Physically, he’s added weight. The good kind, not the kind you acquire by sitting around and eating Cheez-Its. After finishing the year under 200 pounds, Hicks bulked up and added 15 pounds of muscle which will hopefully translate into bigger power numbers. Making the routine and remote But Hicks is slated to play a position in which the emphasis is on the defense and not the offense. The Twins are betting he can cover ground or “go get it”, in Ron Gardenhire nomenclature. He had a penchant for making highlight reel-type plays but missed on too many balls he should have had. Last year, Inside Edge’s data available at Fangraphs.com shows that Hicks was very adept at make the difficult or “Remote” plays -- those a center fielder has a 1%-10% chance of making, such as robbing home runs, like he did to Carlos Gomez in Milwaukee. He converted on 66% of these types of plays, the highest rate among center fielders with a minimum of 600 innings. At the same time, he converted on just 98% of plays that were considered “Routine” -- 90%-100% chance of conversion -- the lowest mark in that category. Hicks said there was a learning curve coming into the league from his days in the single-tiered stadiums of the Eastern League and having millionaires launch rockets into the night sky. “The biggest difference is guys hit the ball harder and, in a way, it gives you more chances to rob a ball because guys hit the ball higher,” Hicks observed, explaining why he found it easy to make those difficult plays at the wall. “Gives me more opportunities to run underneath it and more opportunities to make more plays.” ‘Million dollar arm, ten cent head’ If you hang around the grizzled old-timers at a baseball diamond, those dugout lifers in the game, you may hear the phrase “million dollar arm, ten cent head.” This label does not pertain to Hicks’ intelligence, rather it might apply when he chooses to air out his arm, attempting to nail a lead runner at home or third, rather than play it safe and hit the cut-off man and keep the trailing runner from advancing into scoring position. Hicks has a great arm and he hasn’t been afraid to show it off this spring -- to mixed reviews. In the game where he went 4-for-4, he overshot his cutoff man which led to another Phillies’ run -- a valuable one considering the Twins lost that game 5-4. "The guy who hit the ball went to second and scored on another base hit. So there you have it -- the fifth run, and we end up losing the game by a run," Gardenhire said to reporters after the game. "Throw the ball down. He had no chance to throw the guy out at home, I don't care how strong his arm is. We hit the cutoff man, keep the man on first, who knows what happens?" Most people who have seen Hicks’ snap off a bullet from the outer reaches of the playing field will agree the man has an elite arm. In fact, he was hitting 90 on the gun as a pitcher prior to his draft and several teams were interested in him on the mound rather than as a position player. Online onlookers at Fangraphs.com have cast their scouting grades in the website’s Fan Scouting Reports and found that Hicks’ arm strength comes out at a 78 out of 100, the third best among center fielders last year. There were times the game was going too fast, he acknowledged, and leaning on his strength (his arm) was likely one way try to slow it down. Instead, sometimes it spiraled out of control. *** There are thousands upon thousands of players who have struggled in their introduction to the big leagues -- the aforementioned Torii Hunter being a recent example. The Twins are betting Hicks' approach and abilities have matured and that the game has come down to his level, as opposed to rushing past him, and that his sophomore season will put his career on the right path. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: diamond-indians.jpg One of the biggest surprises of the Twins season has to be the performance of starter Scott Diamond. Written off by many as just another “soft tossing pitcher” in the organization, Diamond has shown mastery of the strike zone and has been getting ground outs by the barrelful. This has led to a 10-5 record and a 2.91 ERA – the sixth best in the American League. While radar gun enthusiasts and strike out fanatics are not likely thrilled by his skill set, Diamond is proving that it is not necessary velocity that makes the pitcher. Let’s take a look at what has made him so successful this year. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] (1) Release Point/Plane Change Diamond’s over-the-top release point gives him a very high angle. Pitch F/X, which captures the first data of a pitcher’s pitch at 55 feet, shows that Diamond’s pitches are at approximately six-feet-four inches on average – which, by comparison, is slightly higher than the taller lefty teammate Tyler Robertson. Combine that with crossing the plate at the knees or lower regularly and you have a solid recipe for grounders. As 1500ESPN.com’s Phil Mackey pointed out recently in a great piece detailing Diamond’s outstanding game preparation, the majority of his misses are low. Mackey cites a stat that said just 6% of his entire offerings this season have missed the strike zone high. This downward trajectory ensures that he is changing planes and making it more difficult for hitters to do anything besides hit the top of the ball thereby inducing a high percentage of ground balls. Download attachment: Diamond_Curve_Choo1.JPG There’s more than just his ability to keep the ball down in the zone that has made him effective this year. His curveball, which may be his best pitch, may be the key behind elevating his fastball from pedestrian to impressive. (2) Noon-to-Six Curveball/Effective Velocity His curve is released at the same point as his fastball but, unlike other pitchers’ sweeping version, Diamond throws his with a 12-to-6 break (north-south movement versus the east-west type). Because the path of his curveball follows the same trajectory as his fastball before it dips – as opposed to many 11-to-4 curves which deviate off of the fastball’s path sooner - hitters will have a more difficult time deciphering between the two offerings. This is what has been one of the practices of the “Effective Velocity” teachings. Part of the Effective Velocity theory is that hitters have approximately 20 feet to decide what the pitch is as they are beginning their swing. The longer an off-speed pitch looks like a fastball or vice versa, the better the odds are the hitter would be fooled by the pitch. Because Diamond’s fastball and curveball share roughly the same plane for the first 20 feet, opponents are having troubles identifying which is which before it is too late. From his Pitch F/X chart you can see how the fastball (blue circles and red triangles) and the curveball (green squares) have little horizontal movement yet the curveball will have a quick drop: Download attachment: Diamond_PitchSelection.JPG Roughly eight miles an hour and several inches of drop separate the two pitches but the two complement each other well. And Diamond continually teases opponents with this breaking pitching which likely keeps opponents off of his fastball. By throwing his curve 30% of the time – the third highest rate among qualified starters – he likely disguises his 89 mile-per-hour fastball effectively. (3) Battler He also possesses a bulldog-like determination on the mound of not giving in to hitters. For starters, he rarely issues free passes or puts himself in drastically bad count situations. Baseball-Reference.com says he has only had 10 3-and-0 counts – the fewest among starters with 100 innings or more. When he does fall behind hitters he is able to navigate out of trouble. While most pitchers are cuffed around when they are behind in the count, according to his “Batters Ahead” split opponents are holding just a 760 OPS. That is more than 200 points better than the league average of 974. Will Diamond remain a winning pitcher? If he continues to have stellar defense and posts a 3.69 expected fielding independent number (xFIP) next year, there is certainly a chance he’ll put up very good stats and win a high portion of his games. Based on his repertoire, consistent peppering of the strike zone and studious nature of the game, there is little reason to think he cannot repeat next season with a similar xFIP. Still, on the flipside, his offense in 2012 has been extremely generous to him. In fact, his 7.40 runs of support per nine innings is the second highest amount of support among qualified starters. If that figure starts to slip in 2013 -- which it is almost certain to do – Diamond is surely due to come up with the short end of the stick. Even great pitchers are unable to manufacture wins without the aid of their hitters – after all, Bert Blyleven can tell you all about losing ball games 2 to 1 or 3 to 2. Click here to view the article

If you had not noticed, Rochester Red Wings hitting coach Tom Brunansky has been a Mr. Fix-It when it comes to the system’s hitters. He has worked well with the young players in the organization, helping get the most out of middling prospects as well as putting the finishing touches on fast-risers in the system. Brian Dozier, Darin Mastroianni and Ben Revere, among others, are all members of the Twins who have credited Brunansky with tinkering with their swings to favorable results over the past two years. When Dozier encountered Brunansky for the first time in New Britain, the former Twin helped the current Twins shortstop add a bit more power to his stroke. Thanks in part to Brunansky’s tutelage the middle infielder went from a high ground-ball hitter to one who hit a high percentage of line drives and more fly balls. This led to a few more extra base hits, including a career-high 22 doubles in 351 plate appearances with the Rock Cats, and put him on Ron Gardenhire’s radar. LaVelle Neal reported that Brunansky had approached Mastroianni about changing his swing in spring training. The speedy outfielder tried it out at that time but it did not take. Sent to New Britain out of the chute, when Mastroianni was promoted to Rochester he worked with Brunansky on incorporating the previous changes into his swing. Mastroianni’s production went off the charts in the International League as in 84 plate appearances the 27-year-old hit .346/.393/.423 and was called to Minnesota. Most notably was the change in the trajectory of his batted balls. Previously a hitter whose ground ball rate was upper 40%/lower 50%, Mastroianni was able to generate more lift and posted a ground ball rate below 40% for the first time in his career. Meanwhile, in Revere’s case, Brunansky attempted to reduce his hand movement. As Brunansky told Sloane Martin of the Rochester Baseball Observer: After performing well with the Twins’ AAA affiliate, Revere was recalled in mid-May. Since his return to Minnesota, he has gone 22-for-70 (.314) with a very impressive .429 slugging percentage thanks, in part, to being able to drive the ball a bit further – perhaps a direct result of him reducing his hand movement. Interestingly enough, Revere recently told the Star Tribune’s Sid Hartman that his success as of last was due to a video revelation which involved another aspect of his hands: So Revere’s success could be attributed to Brunansky, Revere’s own findings or maybe a little bit of both. Another one of Brunansky’s scholars, Chris Parmelee, will have the opportunity to show that, like Revere, the Red Wings hitting coach’s methods can reap dividends at the major league level. Following a month-and-a-half of offensive ineptitude with the Twins, Parmelee was returned to Brunansky with a simple task: Fix it. Opponents attacked Parmelee’s weak spots, exploiting a long swing by blowing him apart with fastballs on the outer-half of the plate and getting him to chase curveballs out of the zone. Having worked with Parmelee in 2011 while the hitting coach for New Britain, upon arrival to Rochester, Brunansky appeared confident that he could correct what was ailing Parmelee. According to Martin: Placed back under Brunansky’s guidance, Parmelee raked with Rochester. In 58 plate appearances, he hit .370/.500/.717 with four doubles and four home runs. What’s more is that after showing poor zone judgment with the Twins at the beginning of the year, Parmelee coaxed 12 walks (21% walk rate), a positive sign that not only is he stinging the ball well but also has the wherewithal to lay off those off the plate. As mentioned above, Parmelee’s swing elongated with the Twins this year. During one broadcast FSN analyst and former Twin Roy Smalley pointed out that Parmelee’s tendency to open up quickly caused his bat speed to drag thus giving him fits when being pitched away. Clearly, this needed some attention. One adjustment that we can see Parmelee and Brunansky feature was a reduction in Parmelee’s open stance. By bringing his front leg closer to the plate, Parmelee’s first movement towards the plate with his weight does not have to be as significant as it once was and, in theory, he will not have to open up his hips as quickly to attempt to “catch up” during his swing – the part of his swing which Smalley pointed out was actually slowing his bat down. In short, the new stance should improve his coverage by keeping him from needing to commit early. Download attachment: Parmelee_ST.jpg Download attachment: Parmelee_AAA.jpg It is hard to argue against Parmelee’s results but if there is one thing to be cautious over it is that his line drive rate evaporated while in Rochester. At the major league level, Parmelee had a line drive rate close to 20% but he exchanged those ropes for flies in Rochester, lining only 13% of his total balls put into play. It seems that fly balls have an easier time sneaking out of single-tiered stadiums over ones like Target Field. Admittedly, for every Brunansky success story like Dozier, Revere and potentially Parmelee, there are guys like Joe Benson, Rene Tosoni and Danny Valencia who seem to head in the opposite direction. This reminds us of the baseball truism: you will have many more misses than you do hits. Click here to view the article

The befuddlement continues as Hendriks’ winless streak now reaches 17 starts and counting. Dating back to beginning of 2011, Hendriks has put up two stellar seasons in the minor leagues, posting a 2.86 ERA with a 193/49 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 245.2 innings split between New Britain and Rochester. In 2011, the Twins named him their Minor League Pitcher of the Year. Based on those figures and accolades, expectations were high for him. Naturally, that has not quite panned out so far at the major league level. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]Heading into last night’s game righties were hitting .381/.426/.702 in 143 plate appearances. That is a remarkable batting line considering the rest of the league’s right-handed pitchers have subdued their same-sided brethren to the tune of .252/.308/.398. The magnitude of those power numbers is unprecedented. Think about that: right-handed opponents’ slugging percentage (.702) off Hendriks is just five points lower than the league’s overall OPS (.707) during righty-on-righty action. What makes this case even more curious is that in the minors the past two seasons Hendriks handled righties just fine. According to MinorLeagueCentral.com’s splits, Hendriks limited right-handers to a .251/.288/.368 line over 518 match-ups since 2011. How is it that he managed to sidestep right-handers in AAA easy-peasy but is obliterated once he arrives to the majors? One explanation as to why Hendriks may have an easier time retiring lefties over righties may have to do with his unique delivery and the challenges it presents. Hendriks has a closed delivery - which is that his front foot lands more towards the third base side and he throws across his body. When facing left-handed batters, he will pepper the outer-half of the strike zone and (far too often this season) just off the plate to entice those hitters to swing at pitches away. Meanwhile, if he wants to pitch right-handers away (or lefties inside for that matter) he must throw across his entire body to reach the far side of the plate: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Hendriks_Landing.png Because he is throwing across his body and trying to hit the pitcher’s glove side of the zone, he has seen his command wane when trying to hit the far side of the plate. In last night’s start against the Kansas City Royals, catcher Drew Butera would frequently set up on the pitcher’s glove side of the plate and present a target. The majority of those offerings did not wind up at the intended destination. For example, in their fifth inning showdown, with two strikes on him, Butera scheduled a fastball down and in on the left-handed hitting Alex Gordon. Rather than hitting this spot, his fastball went up and away. Fortunately Gordon was unable to hold up for strike three. When it comes to right-handed hitters, Hendriks’ intentions appear to be to pepper the outer-half of their zone similar to lefties. Only the above scenario plays out leaving his pitches in a far too favorable of a spot for right-handed hitters: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Hendriks_fastballrighties.jpg While his fastball has been hit pretty hard overall (.362/.412/.553) it is his slider, his most used secondary pitch, that has been bombed back to the Stone Age (.333/.349/.857). Seven of his 12 home runs allowed have come on this pitch (there is plenty of visual evidence of that). This should be his swing-and-miss pitch and yet it is getting destroyed – and part of that is related to his inability to pitch inside effectively. Whether it is game-planned or not, Hendriks has simply not shown opponents that he will throw the ball inside regularly – particularly to righties. For Hendriks, who is a fastball/slider pitcher to righties, this should be a critical element of his game. If he demonstrates that he is able to place his fastball on the inner-half, hitters will be forced to open their hips to respect that pitch which should enhance his slider that runs away from right-handers. Last year, in addressing this very subject, former major league pitcher Ron Darling said “That’s what gets a hitter to speed up his thought process. When he’s thinking ‘quick,’ that’s when you can get him out away. And, more important for a pitcher, it enables you to get away with the occasional mistake away because you’ve disrupted his timing just enough.” Hendriks has made plenty of mistakes away to righties this year but because he is not locating inside, right-handed hitters do not have to respect that portion of the zone and wind up leaning over the plate. As Terry Ryan insinuated after yesterday’s ballgame, Hendriks still have a lot to prove before he is considered a part of the 2013 rotation. Pitching inside effectively may be a part of that. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: wlaters.jpg The Minnesota Twins announce today that they have send pitchers Samuel Deduno and P.J. Walters to AAA, leaving 29 players on the active roster. A tweaked groin during his last start in the World Baseball Classic derailed Deduno’s chances of making the rotation to open the season.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] He had pitched extremely well in the international competition, allowing just one earned run in 13 innings while striking out 17 and walked just five. Had it not have been for the injury, Deduno would likely have been a member of the rotation. Walters, meanwhile, had his name in the conversation this spring by not allowing many runs. However, he walked eight batters in 13 innings and, in his most recent outing against the Blue Jays, Walters was smacked around a bit. These two moves clear the path for pitchers Cole Devries and Liam Hendriks to join the rotation, at least while Scott Diamond recovers from his offseason elbow injury. With the roster set at 29, the remaining positional race to focus on will be the last two spot in the bullpen which should come down to Tyler Robertson, Josh Roenicke and Alex Burnett. Click here to view the article

On International Signing Day, the Twins locked in Dominican shortstop Amaurys Minier for $1.4 million - leaving them with approximately $1.5 million to divvy up among any other international signings. Download attachment: Amuarys-Minier.jpg According to Baseball America, the six-foot-two Minier ranked 12th among available prospects and was the fourth-best rated shortstop prospect. The switch-hitting Minier has a decent sized frame including a stout lower-half making many evaluators believe that he will eventually move from his original position to third base. Here's what the scouting report on him from the Dominican Prospect League has to say:[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Twins Daily members have found additional information on Minier. You can find their contributions and comments here. Click here to view the article