Parker Hageman

Suzuki's offensive demise seems vastly overblown. The changes he made to his swing increased his line drive rate significantly. Even as he hit .248/.290/.366 in his final 155 plate appearances after August 1st, he still had a high line drive rate. What is interesting is that his BB/K ratio went from 29/29 in April-July to 5/17 August-September. I would have to dig more to see if teams change their approach against him. I posted this theory on the Hughes thread: If he did breakdown the last two months of the year, this would definitely support the idea of working Josmil Pinto into the lineup more frequently and giving Suzuki more time off.

Where the hell did all the FIP talk come from?

That's definitely something I noticed as well reviewing video. He's lost weight/in better shape. A lot of his offseason time with the Yankees he was frequently rehabbing. Maybe he had more time this past winter to condition. Either way, it will be a good conversation for someone to have with him.

If you are trying to throw shade on Hughes' potential, by all means go ahead but if the only thing you are citing is his past track record then it is not a convincing argument for all the reasons listed in my article.

Yeah, that was in jest. The point of the entire post is that those things *won't* happen. It's not a huge difference when you consider what FIP is comprised of. First, he greatly reduced the number of walks (lowest in MLB). Second, he greatly reduced the number of home runs (HR/9 ranked 25th). Last, he had an improved strikeout rate (31st). All three of those things are the basis of FIP. FIP rankings don't tell the entire story of a pitcher but if he's doing those three things well, there is a good chance he'll have strong numbers in the future.

The outcome of Suzuki's mechanical change (http://twinsdaily.com/articles.html/_/minnesota-twins-news/minnesota-twins/kurt-suzuki-makes-changes-at-the-plate-r2553) and Hughes' mechanical change are not comparable. Batters and pitchers. But to address Suzuki, he maintain that mechanics change all year. He didn't fall back into old habits. There really wasn't an explanation for the sudden drop in production in the second-half. If you look at his batted ball figures, he kept a line drive rate above 20% while having similar K%/BB% rates. I would have to dig in more to how pitchers approached him differently in the second-half but, at first blush, I wonder if he just wore down as the season progressed -- it was the 2nd most innings caught by a 30+ year old and Suzuki had caught 300 fewer innings. To your point about Hughes, yes, it is possible that he suddenly loses the feel for new mechanics. He has a new pitching coach who might tinker again. Teams might adjust to his cutter or attack his first pitch offering more. He might wind up with an injury. These things *could* happen. I don't think they will but they could.

All good points. To me, the idea of regression as it applies to Phil Hughes is because people look at his past track record and believe he will regress to that. Those who have paid closer attention to how Hughes has approached the 2014 season -- the repertoire change, the mechanics, etc -- should see that the peripheral stats that he put up -- the lowered walk rate, the improved K rate, the lowered fly ball rate, etc -- are a direct result of that. ERA and record will fluctuate but with the new approach the peripheral stats should remain consistent.

Phil Hughes’ first season with the Minnesota Twins was pretty damn good. So much so that the Twins tore up his old contract and presented him with a longer, more fruitful agreement; compensating Hughes closer to what his Fangraphs.com value suggests his performance was worth in 2014. Nobody forced the Twins into making that decision but they felt like they had something special.During the team’s conference call with the media, when asked about the additional years, general manager Terry Ryan said that there are always risks associated with pitchers. Signing a pitcher is like buying a used car -- eventually something is going to break and you just hope it is nothing major. Ryan, however, felt like the team was making a relatively safe investment in Hughes, citing his age (28) and his mechanics as reasons why the front office felt confident in extending the pitcher. When it was Hughes’ turn to speak, he began by offering up his thanks to his former pitching coach. “I would feel guilty if I didn’t thank Rick Anderson for all he did for me last year,” Hughes said. Hughes’ success in 2014 has been attributed to many different elements -- from his revamped repertoire to a more spacious stadium to remaining focused on the task at hand. Some of it may have been from Anderson, some may have been his own doing but all played a significant factor in his outcome last year: The remodeled arsenal, which featured the addition of a can’t-touch-me cutter, led to more strikeouts, the roomier configurations reduced the number of fly balls escaping the playing surface, and his regained confidence allowed him to attack the strike zone better than he ever did in New York. Even with the positive strides he made last season, it is hard for baseball analysts not to conjure up the r-word: regression. Career low in walks? Bound to increase next season. Lowest rate of fly balls leaving the yard? That will bounce back hard. When all the regressing is said and done, the Twins will rue the day they extended Phil Hughes. Hughes obviously disagreed. While there are elements of his game that might experience some regression, Hughes said on the conference call that he made enough tangible changes to his approach that 2014 was not an outlier but rather the new direction of his career. And the repertoire, reduced home runs and added confidence all stemmed from his improved mechanics. What is interesting about Ryan’s trust in Hughes’ mechanics is that it was his mechanics that were to blame for the the up-and-down seasons with the Yankees. As Andy McCullough wrote in The Star-Ledger in September 2013 “scouts observed the same flaws in his delivery this season. One talent evaluator referred to the motion as “herky-jerky.” Hughes lacks the sort of fluid arm swing that is easily repeatable.” One baseball executive called Hughes’ mechanics “high maintenance”. Meanwhile, in just one season Hughes is being well compensated for his mechanics. Upon arriving in Fort Myers, Hughes and Anderson consulted on his mechanics. There would be no major overhaul, just streamlining the process that focused on smoothing everything out. "I've just been trying to stay on my back side taller, because I have a tendency when I get over the rubber on my leg kick to just collapse and kind of drop and drive," Hughes told MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger this past spring. "So I'm just trying to stay back. It puts me in a better position to throw the baseball in." The results of the tweaks is a more fluid, repeatable delivery. Reviewing clips of Hughes this year versus last, you can see he worked diligently to implement this into his delivery. Though the center field cameras are not the ideal shots (a better view would be from the side), this one example of Hughes’ motion in 2014 represents the overall changes he made in terms of being able to stay back and stay taller at his release point. In 2013 by dropping in his delivery, his mechanics had him often releasing the ball too far out front of his body. Watch his upper body/head in the two clips: http://i.imgur.com/CEt7cDC.gif http://i.imgur.com/RlbxTQU.gif The 2014 version is much more fluid, much more in control. Going forward, Hughes certainly may experience regression in 2015. When you set the standard for all-time highest strikeout-to-walk ratio the previous season, it will be difficult to top the following year. Yes, the home runs-to-fly ball percentage might grow and he may allow a few more runs to cross the plate. That being said, Hughes is simply not the same pitcher he was in New York. If he is able to maintain the consistent mechanics (while remaining healthy), there is no reason to anticipate any significant regression next season for Phil Hughes. Click here to view the article

I think UZR went through a same revamping process as BIS's Plus/Minus did around 2007. Per John Dewan of BIS:

On this week's No Juice Podcast, Dan Anderson and Parker Hageman are joined at Panino Brothers in Eden Prairie by Fox Sports North host/reporter Marney Gellner. They discuss the Ron Gardenhire era, how to deal with teams that are constantly losing, and Marney tells Twins Daily community members what to expect out of Winter Meltdown guests in Tim Laudner and Jacque Jones. Listen below.Other topics include North Dakota State football, the Minnesota Timberwolves and life inside the local media. Her kids made an appearance as well and we made some predictions for the National Championship Game. Listen below, on iTunes or on Stitcher: NO JUICE PODCAST, EPISODE #38: MARNEY GELLNER Click here to view the article

Another element that is not directly related to this -- but sort of considering Vargas had to apply for more time from the Twins -- is that at the beginning of the offseason Terry Ryan was opposed to having Vargas play a ton of winter ball:

Yes, question for Mr. Laudner? How badly did you want the next guy drilled after this? http://mlb.mlb.com/images/0/5/8/92771058/lawless_gif_twitter_heddgre3.gif

Again, I preface all of this by saying we don't know the whole story. These are just the details that are provided: Baerga did not start three players in the playoffs including his best player -- for some unknown reason. Could it have been because he pulled a Mr. Burns and had Homer pinch hit for Daryl Strawberry? Maybe. Could it have been that the three players did something on-or-off-the-field that caused their benching? Maybe. Could it have been because he just wanted to give the three a day off? Maybe. I tried to find any report on why those three were not played in the game and there did not seem to have any information available on that. To me, that's the smoking gun.

At the end of December Vargas was quoted as saying he was trying to get the extra week from the Twins to help his team to the playoffs. Obviously with this case as in numerous cases in the clubhouse of the major leagues, there are things that will never be reported and the full story will never be revealed. These are simply the events reported by the local media. Baerga's comment about his players not ready to come play 100% was interesting. It's a jump to conclusion (mat) that it is possible that the three named players who were held out of the lineup may have not come ready to play -- for whatever that means. The curious thing about it is that it was essentially a "must win" game and Baerga held his and the league's best hitter out of the lineup. Again, I'm not winning to assign blame over this, just providing the information available.

Per Twitter, Arcia will return to the lineup on Saturday. He's been ready but has requested Thursday/Friday off because of a death in the family: https://twitter.com/Vigoto/status/553271486010908674

That is crazy. Would love to see some footage of those plate appearances.

Firing a manager in the middle of a postseason run seems like an unlikely scenario for a baseball organization however the Puerto Rican team, Indios de Mayaguez, have fired their manager and Minnesota Twins’ Kennys Vargas may have played a role.On January 5, after going 1-2 to start the round-robin postseason tournament, Indios de Mayaguez fired their manager Carlos Baerga. According to local rumblings in Puerto Rico, Vargas was one of three players who was cited as being a contributing factor in Baerga’s ousting. ElNuevoDia.com reported that Vargas, along with Luis Figueroa and Martin Maldonado, had issues with the team’s manager. Vargas was among three players held out of the lineup during this past Sunday’s game. In 37 games, Vargas was leading the Liga de Beisbol Profesional Roberto Clemente in on-base percentage (.430) thanks to a league-leading 33 walks, second in home runs (6) and third in OPS (.913). In addition to Vargas, Figueroa and Maldonado were withheld from the game against Gigantes de Carolina. Vargas and Figueroa entered the game in the eighth inning as pinch hitters while Maldonado entered as a defensive replacement. In his only at bat that game, Vargas drew a walk against former Twin and Gigantes reliever J.C. Romero and was immediately lifted for a pinch runner. Indios went on to beat the Gigantes, 3-2 after a walk-off double in the 11th. Reportedly, Vargas expressed displeasure in the manager’s decisions and threatened to leave the team. After Sunday's win, the front office called Baerga to inform him that he was let go. Following the news of Baerga’s dismissal, Vargas quickly clarified with the press that he did not have anything to do with Baerga’s firing and would indeed continue with the team. (Vargas was initially slated to return to the Twins after January 8 but his team lobbied for an extension through the playoffs, which the Twins granted.) Shortly after, Baerga took to his Facebook page to announce his termination and express his displeasure in the decision. He said that he would not accept players who did not come to play 100% every day or question his managing. Whether a parting shot or an attempt to clear the air with the three players by Baerga, he finished with “[a]nd above all, thanks to the three pillars of this [team]: Kennys Vargas, Wicho Figueroa Martin Maldonado and that your example and professionalism taught us all how you should do things.” On Wednesday, all three players returned to the starting lineup. For his part, Vargas went 1-for-4 with a home run and drove in two runs. This is the second of such charges against a member of the Twins organization in winter ball. In November, Aaron Hicks’ Venezuelan team released him amid reports that they were upset at his attitude. Vargas’ personality and/or attitude have not been issues with the Twins and he is well-respected in Puerto Rico where he recently was honored in December by the Sports Journalists Association of Puerto Rico as the best major league player from the island in 2014. Click here to view the article

Just to be clear, Jerry Bell was appointed president of Twins Sports Inc in 2002 after he stepped down as president of the Twins. His duties between then and 2011 revolved around getting Target Field funded and constructed (he was a part of the Metropolitan Sports Facilities Commission from 1977 to 1987). To you question regarding Ryan/LaRussa as team presidents, that's fair. Again, it wasn't clear to me what the question was. We will have a thread to place questions for Mr. St. Peter and Mr. Laudner and that seems like a good question to add. To the last point, yes, I answered them. You are definitely welcomed to submit them.

Wow. Ok. I recall you trying to ask a similar question in the DSP Q&A thread but you did not clarify the question upon my request... http://twinsdaily.com/topic/15671-want-to-ask-twins-president-dave-st-peter-a-question/?p=288420 I'm not sure what constitutes a "baseball person" to you. And judging from the re-post here, I'm now seeing that you meant Dave St. Peter as the "top of the organization". Should I just list them? Larry Lucchino, president and CEO of the Red Sox, was never a "baseball person". Randy Lavine, president of the Yankees, was never a "baseball person".Stan Kasten, president of the Dodgers, was never a "baseball person".Brian Auld, president of the Rays, was never a "baseball person."Paul Beeston, president/CEO of Blue Jays, was never a "baseball person".I could continue this but there seems to be a trend. If you wish to continue this list, Google is free. What I will say is that there are plenty of teams that have "non-baseball people" that run the organization that delegate the work out to other "baseball people" to make "baseball" decisions. Dave St. Peter took over the president role in 2002. The team won the Central in 2002, 2003, 2004, 2006, 2009 and 2010. Not seeing the correlation. I think everyone knows the answer to this question. You just want this asked for what reason? Again, if you listen to the podcast interview we did with him in October, I know you will find that these two are not mutually exclusive. Winning creates interest. Interest leads to ticket sales. Ticket sales leads to higher revenue. No secret there. http://twinsdaily.com/_/minnesota-twins-news/podcasts/no-juice-podcast-27-dave-st-peter-r3169

Yes, we will definitely allow Twins Daily members to submit questions for Mr. St. Peter and the two other guests.

The questions to Dave St. Peter have definitely not been asked softball questions. Between last year's Winter Meltdown interview and this year's No Juice Podcast interview I'd say he's received some tough questions.

Right, the hand drop is just one of the things the Twins were trying to correct during the season. He was unable to get to anything up in the zone because of this. I would also direct your attention to the head movement between the two swings. With the Twins, his head changes planes in a significant way. Hard to stay on the ball like that.