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Article: Twins Draft Preview: Kyle Tucker
Parker Hageman replied to Parker Hageman's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
http://www.reactiongifs.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/go-on.gif http://www.reactiongifs.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/ok-then1.gif -
Article: Twins Draft Preview: Kyle Tucker
Parker Hageman replied to Parker Hageman's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
In theory, Byron Buxton will be in center field for 10+ years if all goes right but Baseball America raved about Tucker's instincts and route running suggesting those two elements could keep him in center for a while. He's probably a more polished version of Max Kepler in that regard. -
Article: Twins Draft Preview: Kyle Tucker
Parker Hageman replied to Parker Hageman's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Gonzalez swing may not be a the accurate comp in this case. Gonzalez keeps his hands held high, has a significant leg kicks and covers the outer half of the zone better than almost anyone not named Joe Mauer. http://i.imgur.com/EUMqgXO.gif What I see is Tucker's swing comp closer to A-Gon's teammate Joc Pederson. Pederson remains upright like Tucker and has his hands on a low plane to begin his swing (Pederson's stays low while Tucker drops his). Pederson keeps his hands relatively still while Tucker keeps his moving up to and through the load process (which is fine). Ideally, Tucker would adopt the athletic leg kicks like Pederson and use that lower half better. http://i.imgur.com/FOG1GO0.gif In the clip above, Tucker handled 94 up and away well. There will certainly be adjustments coming when he begins to face pitchers who can locate their secondary pitches better than the competition that he faced. -
As far as adding position players to their system, the Minnesota Twins could do a lot worse than high school outfielder Kyle Tucker. The six-foot-five outfielder from Hillsborough County outside of Tampa -- a sun-soaked and highly competitive baseball region -- has all the projectability in the world including an advanced approach at the plate. His plus-hit tool and ability to mash could see him become the next Twins’ first-round draft pick. That is, unless someone else gets to him first.Who is this guy? Tucker comes from a line with a baseball pedigree as his brother Preston was a standout at the University of Florida (where Kyle is currently committed) and has been called up to the Houston Astros this season. While Preston’s power earned him the nickname “Bamm-Bamm”, his younger brother Kyle has five inches on his older sibling and is said to be more athletic (able to play center field) with similar power projectability. According to Perfect Game -- a well-respected amatuer scouting organization which holds showcases and invitationals to pit the nation’s best high school talent against one another -- Tucker’s power tool was rated as the fourth-best in the country. Meanwhile MLB.com said that Tucker has a smooth swing and lauded his “advanced approach at the plate” and Baseball America’s review said that the left-handed outfielder makes “consistent hard contact” with the majority of his power coming to his pull side. http://i.imgur.com/9D6hFbk.gif Tucker’s swing is smooth if slightly unorthodox. He lowers his hands (not unlike the Ted Williams method, for a mental comparison) which some evaluators question may cause issues against more professional grade pitching. Keep in mind, rarely is there a high school prospect who does not make some adjustments to his swing mechanics as he continues to face better competition. http://i.imgur.com/je6UbkP.gif “When he was a sophomore, they called him Ted Williams,” Tucker’s high school baseball coach Dennis Braun told USA Today. “Boy, there’s nowhere to go but down from that. They throw out so many names of I can’t keep track of them. All I know is Kyle, like his brother, can hit. You can’t teach putting the barrel on the ball and that’s the quality everybody is looking for.” Tucker finished his senior year at Plant High School in Tampa with a .484 average and 10 home runs in 64 at-bats. He also added 25 walks to his stats. Often, elite high school hitters are not given many good pitches and Tucker’s reputation earned him a fair share of unintentional intentional walks. Some hitters try to expand the zone just to be able to swing the bat but Tucker stayed within himself -- a skill which cannot always be developed. His fielding abilities are viewed as strong -- good instincts, routes in the outfield and a decent enough arm (he was the high school team’s closer). While he is playing center field now, his future will eventually find him in a corner outfield spot. Why the Twins will pick him Not long ago, the Twins front office confessed their love affair with left-handed bats. For a while they stockpiled this swing-side preference in the farm system, hoping to gain an advantage over the league’s pitching which has a right-handed tilt. Now the pipeline has a right-handed bat slant with Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton aiming to be long-term lineup contributors, adding a left-handed power source like Tucker would be a nice complement to the offense for years to come. In addition to the on-field abilities, Tucker reportedly has outstanding character traits that make teams swoon. Because of his academics and volunteer track record, coupled with his athletic achievements, he was selected as the Gatorade Florida Baseball Player of the Year. In terms of talent, Tucker wouldn’t be a reach and would provide the Twins’ system with some needed left-handed power. Why the Twins will not pick him There’s a decent chance Tucker might not make it to the sixth slot in the draft. The Houston Astros, who have the fifth overall pick, also have Tucker’s older brother, Preston, in their system have kept a close eye on the younger Tucker who is considered to be more athletic than the one currently in an Astros uniform. Outside of that, he is not a pitcher. The Twins have seen what happens when you fail to draft and develop starting pitching -- you either have to overpay for it on the free agent market or you get subpar performer who get shelled (or both). They have added depth over the last few drafts but because developing pitchers is a war of attrition it never hurts to have too much starting pitching. Click here to view the article
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Who is this guy? Tucker comes from a line with a baseball pedigree as his brother Preston was a standout at the University of Florida (where Kyle is currently committed) and has been called up to the Houston Astros this season. While Preston’s power earned him the nickname “Bamm-Bamm”, his younger brother Kyle has five inches on his older sibling and is said to be more athletic (able to play center field) with similar power projectability. According to Perfect Game -- a well-respected amatuer scouting organization which holds showcases and invitationals to pit the nation’s best high school talent against one another -- Tucker’s power tool was rated as the fourth-best in the country. Meanwhile MLB.com said that Tucker has a smooth swing and lauded his “advanced approach at the plate” and Baseball America’s review said that the left-handed outfielder makes “consistent hard contact” with the majority of his power coming to his pull side. http://i.imgur.com/9D6hFbk.gif Tucker’s swing is smooth if slightly unorthodox. He lowers his hands (not unlike the Ted Williams method, for a mental comparison) which some evaluators question may cause issues against more professional grade pitching. Keep in mind, rarely is there a high school prospect who does not make some adjustments to his swing mechanics as he continues to face better competition. http://i.imgur.com/je6UbkP.gif “When he was a sophomore, they called him Ted Williams,” Tucker’s high school baseball coach Dennis Braun told USA Today. “Boy, there’s nowhere to go but down from that. They throw out so many names of I can’t keep track of them. All I know is Kyle, like his brother, can hit. You can’t teach putting the barrel on the ball and that’s the quality everybody is looking for.” Tucker finished his senior year at Plant High School in Tampa with a .484 average and 10 home runs in 64 at-bats. He also added 25 walks to his stats. Often, elite high school hitters are not given many good pitches and Tucker’s reputation earned him a fair share of unintentional intentional walks. Some hitters try to expand the zone just to be able to swing the bat but Tucker stayed within himself -- a skill which cannot always be developed. His fielding abilities are viewed as strong -- good instincts, routes in the outfield and a decent enough arm (he was the high school team’s closer). While he is playing center field now, his future will eventually find him in a corner outfield spot. Why the Twins will pick him Not long ago, the Twins front office confessed their love affair with left-handed bats. For a while they stockpiled this swing-side preference in the farm system, hoping to gain an advantage over the league’s pitching which has a right-handed tilt. Now the pipeline has a right-handed bat slant with Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton aiming to be long-term lineup contributors, adding a left-handed power source like Tucker would be a nice complement to the offense for years to come. In addition to the on-field abilities, Tucker reportedly has outstanding character traits that make teams swoon. Because of his academics and volunteer track record, coupled with his athletic achievements, he was selected as the Gatorade Florida Baseball Player of the Year. In terms of talent, Tucker wouldn’t be a reach and would provide the Twins’ system with some needed left-handed power. Why the Twins will not pick him There’s a decent chance Tucker might not make it to the sixth slot in the draft. The Houston Astros, who have the fifth overall pick, also have Tucker’s older brother, Preston, in their system have kept a close eye on the younger Tucker who is considered to be more athletic than the one currently in an Astros uniform. Outside of that, he is not a pitcher. The Twins have seen what happens when you fail to draft and develop starting pitching -- you either have to overpay for it on the free agent market or you get subpar performer who get shelled (or both). They have added depth over the last few drafts but because developing pitchers is a war of attrition it never hurts to have too much starting pitching.
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Respect the information and thoughts but that middle clip is a well executed cutter with very good spin. It may give the impression of a lower rotation because of the slow video GIF but it has a high spin rate. The "hop" wasn't something a part of his regular mechanics, either: http://i.imgur.com/RlbxTQU.gif To me, the arm extension isn't really a problem/issue overall. As you can see from this clip, the hand finishes in a very comparable spot as last year. To the bigger critique about his mechanics -- Hughes had made some adjustments heading into last season (credited Rick Anderson a lot of those) and one of those was to finish higher to maintain consistency (here you will see the Yankees model was a bit more haphazard with his finish as he was taught to drop-and-drive -- http://twinsdaily.com/articles.html/_/minnesota-twins-news/on-phil-hughes-and-regression-r3303?st=25#commentsStart). When you suggest he is cutting off his motion, it usually has been his lower half that he has truncated. I would like to see a stronger finish in that regard.
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He's getting a little more horizontal run with the four-seamer which likely means he might not be driving behind the pitch at release as well as he did last year. That's a feel aspect to pitching. I honestly don't know why he's trying to throw down with his fastball at all. If it is the 2-seamer, those you generally want to have down in the zone. His certainly does not have the drop like Pelfrey. http://i.imgur.com/iAVcMwX.gif
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He doesn't seem too far off. It's not like he has an injury or drop in velocity or anything. He is missing the feel on two of his better pitches. Sometimes it takes a few more starts to get that down. His first 10 starts last year were pretty comparable to what he is doing now. He caught fire after that.
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The Minnesota Twins are at the top of the American League Central thanks to an unexpected surge in strong starting pitching. While some pitchers like Mike Pelfrey continue to defy expectations, starters like Phil Hughes has turned in an average performance up to this point. There were no signs that Hughes’ 2014 season was driven by luck. He missed bats, he limited walks and, thanks to a roomier ballpark, reduced the number of home runs. Still, with a historically good strikeout-to-walk ratio and a career-best home run-to-fly ball rate, there was room for things to go the other way but a solid foundation existed to build upon. The Twins felt the same way and offered him a contract extension this past offseason. After 10 starts this season, Hughes has not been the same starter he was in 2014.His expected performance indicator, xFIP, is almost one full run higher than last year, jiving with his ERA, which is also one run higher this season than it was a year ago. The catalyst has been a decline in strikeouts and a sharp climb in the number of home runs allowed. On the surface, Hughes is not doing much different than he did the previous season -- constantly in the zone, throwing first pitch strikes like his life depends on it, etc -- but a deeper review of PitchF/X data shows that there is a slight contrast between his first season with the Twins and this one. One of those small changes is that he has started to use a two-seam fastball more in lieu of the four-seam variety. “I have thrown a lot more [two-seamers] probably because I am trying to find something else to go to until I get my fastball back to where it needs to be,” Hughes acknowledged. “I'm trying to make some adjustments on the fly.” “It seems like I haven't been able to go in with my four-seamer to lefties as effectively so I figure the best alternative to that is my two-seamer down and away and I've gotten quite a few ground balls with it,” Hughes explained as the impetus for the heater swap. “As the season picks up and my arm strength gets a little better and I find my four-seam fastball a little bit more hopefully that will be something I can go to more.” Hughes said that he found when he turned to the four-seamer this year to hit the glove-side of the zone, the ball has drifted back over the plate. http://i.imgur.com/GNmXJm1.gif “I don't think the velocity has been all that different but just trying to get that late ride that I get, being able to command it in and keep it in to lefties as opposed to where it is running back over the plate a little bit more.” Velocity certainly has not been the problem. Sure it is down a tick according to Fangraphs.com’s PitchF/X date but the increase in two-seamers would account for the slight downturn for Hughes, which are typically thrown with less velocity than the four-seamer. And control has not been the problem either as evident by the few walks issued. His real enemy has been command -- getting the pitch do what he wants it to do once it is out of his hand. He can hit a strike zone, it is hitting the small sections within the zone that matters. While Hughes maintains a miniscule walk rate and has a lower batting average on balls that don’t leave the playing surface, it is the long ball which has been been his detriment. After allowing 16 in 209.2 innings in 2014 he’s surrendered 12 in 64.2 innings this year. He is outpacing all of his other seasons for home runs allowed, a considerable surprise after he left the hitter’s haven in New York for the more balanced play of Target Field. It’s not just the fastball that has been a factor in the inflated home run totals, his cutter has not been up to the same grade as it was last year. Hughes developed the cutter in 2014 as another pitch after using a big slider and changeup in New York. The cutter acts like a fastball but has late movement down and glove-side run which resulted in 79 strikeouts, many of which were looking. Hitters see what appears to be a fastball that is heading off the plate but darts back over at the last second. “It comes out like a fastball,” said catcher Kurt Suzuki on what made Hughes’ cutter such a good pitch. “I don't know if he does anything different but from my side is that it just looks like a fastball and it just has that late cut. That’s what makes pitchers so tough is when pitches come out looking just like a fastball and just moves at the last second.” http://i.imgur.com/iTWOCC4.gif When on, it has been a plus-plus pitch for Hughes. “It’s more being able to locate it exactly where I want to,” Hughes said about his cutter this year. “It kind of comes and goes in spurts. I know in Seattle, it was automatic for me to go out there with it. And it other games I've been constantly missing a tiny bit. The more I try to go away, I'll try to make the adjustment and it will run back over the plate a little bit more.” Missing a little bit, like he did to Dustin Pedroia in his most recent start, has resulted in some long flights. http://i.imgur.com/ikw7QlI.gif Another element of his game, his plus-curveball, has not been the same either. In 2014 hitters missed on a quarter of their swings. This season, however, hitters are missing on less than 10 percent. Hughes says splitting his nail has played a role early in the season. In the handful of starts in which his nail actually split, it was “extremely painful” to continue to try to throw his knuckle-curve but has since had that nail heal. “I feel like I can throw my curveball confidently and it has been something I needed to incorporate more but for whatever reason I haven't done it,” Hughes said. “So hopefully the curveball is something that makes its way into my pitch sequences more often because I feel like I can really use that pitch to get guys off my fastball.” True to his word, Hughes has been spinning more curves in his arsenal since the beginning of May. In his five April starts he mixed it in 6% of the time but has increased that to 20% in his five May outings. His biggest reasoning for adding in more was to keep hitters from attacking his first-pitch fastball. “I've tried to throw some first-pitch curveballs to get guys into a count where I can dictate the at-bat instead of guys trying to sell out for the first-pitch fastball,” Hughes said as he noticed hitters swinging out of their cleats and realized something needed to change. “I think it was [Rays outfielder Kevin] Kiermaier the other day swung at the first pitch of the game and it was above his head. Guys are really selling out for first-pitch fastballs. And good for them -- that's a good game plan especially for a guy who throws a lot of fastballs, usually the best you are going to see is the first in the count. I've just got to stay one pitch ahead.” So if hitters are just swinging out of their shoes, why not just start the at-bat with a fastball well out of the strike zone occasionally to keep them honest? “That's not something you necessarily want to do unless a guy is just absolutely selling out for a fastball they usually see the ball coming out of your hand before they make a decision at whether they want to swing at it. I can't just throw an intentional ball and hope they swing, it's more about throwing the quality pitch where I'm on the corners I'll take my chances. When I've gotten burned, it's been on pitches that guys have sold out for and they haven't been good location pitches. That's something I have to be better with.” Fewer missed bats in general has been an issue for Hughes as well. After posting on of his best swinging strikes seasons, he now is one of the bottom 10 qualified pitchers when it comes to making hitters whiff. On two-strike counts, he has turned to his fastball more over his curveball or cutter which he favored in that situation heavily last year. Hughes relied on a four-seamer from hell last year. It lived up in the zone and feasted on hitters’ souls. Four-seam fastballs, while not able to rise because of the laws of physics, stay on the same plane and can battle gravity to give hitters the perception that they are rising. When located up in the zone with the type of velocity that Hughes can generate, it can led to empty swings or foul balls. On the other hand two-seamers by nature are sinking fastballs. They reside down in the zone and are geared towards contact; where it is located depends on how damaging that contact can be. The high fastball also expanded the zone a hitter needed to cover with his swing. With a two-seamer, cutter and curveball all heading toward the lower third of the zone, it helps remove some of the guess work. Hughes said he understands that and is working toward getting back to that part of his game. “Obviously with my two-seamer I want to be down in the zone but I feel like I haven't been able to effectively live up in the zone with my four-seamer as much as I have been in the past,” Hughes said of his body of work during strikeout situations. “Again, small sample size and I feel like I'm not really in a groove right now but hopefully when I start getting on a roll, you will start to see more riding four-seamers up in the zone and then getting some two-seamers down if I have to but my bread-and-butter is living up and that something I've always done but right now I've gotten burned a few times on pitches that I've tried to go up on the corners that I've just left over the plate. As my confidence with my four-seamer starts to pick up, you'll see more of those up in the zone.” Staying ahead of the competition is what makes good pitchers great, Hughes understands this. He never intended to rest on his laurels which was one of the reasons he explored using changeups more during spring training. While there is an emphasis placed on the change from the staff, Hughes said he feels the pitch is at a point where it is his fourth-best and doesn’t want to live and die by it, reserving it for low-risk situations. “It's an adjustment but that's what you do constantly in this game. Hitters are getting all these reports and info just like we are and obviously trying to exploit a weakness. I just gotta stay one step ahead of it.” It cannot be stressed enough that pitching -- and in the big picture, baseball as a whole -- is organic. There are adjustments and adaptations needed every season, every start, every inning, and even every pitch. With a few adjustments, Hughes believes he will finish the year closer to where he was a year ago. Click here to view the article
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His expected performance indicator, xFIP, is almost one full run higher than last year, jiving with his ERA, which is also one run higher this season than it was a year ago. The catalyst has been a decline in strikeouts and a sharp climb in the number of home runs allowed. On the surface, Hughes is not doing much different than he did the previous season -- constantly in the zone, throwing first pitch strikes like his life depends on it, etc -- but a deeper review of PitchF/X data shows that there is a slight contrast between his first season with the Twins and this one. One of those small changes is that he has started to use a two-seam fastball more in lieu of the four-seam variety. “I have thrown a lot more [two-seamers] probably because I am trying to find something else to go to until I get my fastball back to where it needs to be,” Hughes acknowledged. “I'm trying to make some adjustments on the fly.” “It seems like I haven't been able to go in with my four-seamer to lefties as effectively so I figure the best alternative to that is my two-seamer down and away and I've gotten quite a few ground balls with it,” Hughes explained as the impetus for the heater swap. “As the season picks up and my arm strength gets a little better and I find my four-seam fastball a little bit more hopefully that will be something I can go to more.” Hughes said that he found when he turned to the four-seamer this year to hit the glove-side of the zone, the ball has drifted back over the plate. http://i.imgur.com/GNmXJm1.gif “I don't think the velocity has been all that different but just trying to get that late ride that I get, being able to command it in and keep it in to lefties as opposed to where it is running back over the plate a little bit more.” Velocity certainly has not been the problem. Sure it is down a tick according to Fangraphs.com’s PitchF/X date but the increase in two-seamers would account for the slight downturn for Hughes, which are typically thrown with less velocity than the four-seamer. And control has not been the problem either as evident by the few walks issued. His real enemy has been command -- getting the pitch do what he wants it to do once it is out of his hand. He can hit a strike zone, it is hitting the small sections within the zone that matters. While Hughes maintains a miniscule walk rate and has a lower batting average on balls that don’t leave the playing surface, it is the long ball which has been been his detriment. After allowing 16 in 209.2 innings in 2014 he’s surrendered 12 in 64.2 innings this year. He is outpacing all of his other seasons for home runs allowed, a considerable surprise after he left the hitter’s haven in New York for the more balanced play of Target Field. It’s not just the fastball that has been a factor in the inflated home run totals, his cutter has not been up to the same grade as it was last year. Hughes developed the cutter in 2014 as another pitch after using a big slider and changeup in New York. The cutter acts like a fastball but has late movement down and glove-side run which resulted in 79 strikeouts, many of which were looking. Hitters see what appears to be a fastball that is heading off the plate but darts back over at the last second. “It comes out like a fastball,” said catcher Kurt Suzuki on what made Hughes’ cutter such a good pitch. “I don't know if he does anything different but from my side is that it just looks like a fastball and it just has that late cut. That’s what makes pitchers so tough is when pitches come out looking just like a fastball and just moves at the last second.” http://i.imgur.com/iTWOCC4.gif When on, it has been a plus-plus pitch for Hughes. “It’s more being able to locate it exactly where I want to,” Hughes said about his cutter this year. “It kind of comes and goes in spurts. I know in Seattle, it was automatic for me to go out there with it. And it other games I've been constantly missing a tiny bit. The more I try to go away, I'll try to make the adjustment and it will run back over the plate a little bit more.” Missing a little bit, like he did to Dustin Pedroia in his most recent start, has resulted in some long flights. http://i.imgur.com/ikw7QlI.gif Another element of his game, his plus-curveball, has not been the same either. In 2014 hitters missed on a quarter of their swings. This season, however, hitters are missing on less than 10 percent. Hughes says splitting his nail has played a role early in the season. In the handful of starts in which his nail actually split, it was “extremely painful” to continue to try to throw his knuckle-curve but has since had that nail heal. “I feel like I can throw my curveball confidently and it has been something I needed to incorporate more but for whatever reason I haven't done it,” Hughes said. “So hopefully the curveball is something that makes its way into my pitch sequences more often because I feel like I can really use that pitch to get guys off my fastball.” True to his word, Hughes has been spinning more curves in his arsenal since the beginning of May. In his five April starts he mixed it in 6% of the time but has increased that to 20% in his five May outings. His biggest reasoning for adding in more was to keep hitters from attacking his first-pitch fastball. “I've tried to throw some first-pitch curveballs to get guys into a count where I can dictate the at-bat instead of guys trying to sell out for the first-pitch fastball,” Hughes said as he noticed hitters swinging out of their cleats and realized something needed to change. “I think it was [Rays outfielder Kevin] Kiermaier the other day swung at the first pitch of the game and it was above his head. Guys are really selling out for first-pitch fastballs. And good for them -- that's a good game plan especially for a guy who throws a lot of fastballs, usually the best you are going to see is the first in the count. I've just got to stay one pitch ahead.” So if hitters are just swinging out of their shoes, why not just start the at-bat with a fastball well out of the strike zone occasionally to keep them honest? “That's not something you necessarily want to do unless a guy is just absolutely selling out for a fastball they usually see the ball coming out of your hand before they make a decision at whether they want to swing at it. I can't just throw an intentional ball and hope they swing, it's more about throwing the quality pitch where I'm on the corners I'll take my chances. When I've gotten burned, it's been on pitches that guys have sold out for and they haven't been good location pitches. That's something I have to be better with.” Fewer missed bats in general has been an issue for Hughes as well. After posting on of his best swinging strikes seasons, he now is one of the bottom 10 qualified pitchers when it comes to making hitters whiff. On two-strike counts, he has turned to his fastball more over his curveball or cutter which he favored in that situation heavily last year. Hughes relied on a four-seamer from hell last year. It lived up in the zone and feasted on hitters’ souls. Four-seam fastballs, while not able to rise because of the laws of physics, stay on the same plane and can battle gravity to give hitters the perception that they are rising. When located up in the zone with the type of velocity that Hughes can generate, it can led to empty swings or foul balls. On the other hand two-seamers by nature are sinking fastballs. They reside down in the zone and are geared towards contact; where it is located depends on how damaging that contact can be. The high fastball also expanded the zone a hitter needed to cover with his swing. With a two-seamer, cutter and curveball all heading toward the lower third of the zone, it helps remove some of the guess work. Hughes said he understands that and is working toward getting back to that part of his game. “Obviously with my two-seamer I want to be down in the zone but I feel like I haven't been able to effectively live up in the zone with my four-seamer as much as I have been in the past,” Hughes said of his body of work during strikeout situations. “Again, small sample size and I feel like I'm not really in a groove right now but hopefully when I start getting on a roll, you will start to see more riding four-seamers up in the zone and then getting some two-seamers down if I have to but my bread-and-butter is living up and that something I've always done but right now I've gotten burned a few times on pitches that I've tried to go up on the corners that I've just left over the plate. As my confidence with my four-seamer starts to pick up, you'll see more of those up in the zone.” Staying ahead of the competition is what makes good pitchers great, Hughes understands this. He never intended to rest on his laurels which was one of the reasons he explored using changeups more during spring training. While there is an emphasis placed on the change from the staff, Hughes said he feels the pitch is at a point where it is his fourth-best and doesn’t want to live and die by it, reserving it for low-risk situations. “It's an adjustment but that's what you do constantly in this game. Hitters are getting all these reports and info just like we are and obviously trying to exploit a weakness. I just gotta stay one step ahead of it.” It cannot be stressed enough that pitching -- and in the big picture, baseball as a whole -- is organic. There are adjustments and adaptations needed every season, every start, every inning, and even every pitch. With a few adjustments, Hughes believes he will finish the year closer to where he was a year ago.
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Article: How Is Mike Pelfrey Doing This?
Parker Hageman replied to Parker Hageman's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
"Pelfrey has thrown a splitter for years - he used it with similar frequency way back in 2010. He throws it with less velocity now (despite his fastball velocity being the same), which may be helping it work better as a change-up." Yes. He threw a split-finger fastball with the Mets and on rare occasions with the Twins but this version has far less rotation, more movement and behaves differently. For all intents and purposes it is a new pitch. -
I warned everyone in April that this might be a real possibility. At that time, just several starts into the 2015 season, the analysis was smothered with caution sauce. Statistically, there were indicators abounding that things were going to go south quickly, however there seemed to be something different about this Mike Pelfrey. This Mike Pelfrey was peppering the zone, possessed improved velocity, induced weak contact, had improved his swing-and-miss capabilities, and added a second pitch.For various reasons Pelfrey’s ability to sustain this success was questioned. Despite the swinging strikes, he really didn’t strike anyone out. He put a ton of baserunners on but managed to wiggle out of jams by the skin of his teeth. Surely the wheels were ready to come off. And when the Detroit Tigers pounded him for 10 hits over four innings a few short weeks later, it felt as if the foreboding avalanche of regression would leave no survivors. But then something unexpected happened: He didn’t regress. Mike Pelfrey went back out and threw 13 innings of 10 hit, two-run ball over his next two starts. Instead, he concluded Tuesday night’s victory over the Boston Red Sox tied with Edinson Volquez with a 2.77 ERA -- the 10th best in the American League. It is especially crazy considering his expected performance figures peg him to be around 4.50. How has he continued to outperform performance indicators like xFIP? Nine starts is by no means an ample sample but the traits that Pelfrey demonstrated in April have rolled over into May. In addition to the ERA (which should not be used in gauging the quality of a pitcher’s performance so stop using it), Pelfrey has managed to keep opposing hitters away from hard contact. According to ESPN/trumedia, he maintains a well-hit average of .103 -- this time 12th best in all of baseball. BaseballSavant.com’s batted ball velocity more or less confirms this, saying Pelfrey’s batted ball velocity of 87 mph is 18th among all qualified pitchers. Tons of contact but the vast majority of it is weak. Pelfrey’s inclusion of the splitter has elevated his arsenal to a new level. It is lethal against left-handed hitters and has kept right-handers honest to some degree. Watch the movement it showed in his last start against Pittsburgh. This was a nasty pitch that incited a silly swing from the Pirates’ Pedro Alvarez: http://i.imgur.com/sRa4T8a.gif This season’s splitter has a lack of spin and that provides drag and drop. When thrown with similar arm speed as a fastball it can produce some head-shaking swings. Pelfrey’s current .202 batting average against lefties is 10th lowest in baseball by a right-hander -- company that includes pitching elite like Felix Hernandez, Matt Harvey and Sonny Gray -- and that development undoubted coincides with his use of the splitter. The other reason he has been able to achieve weak contact on a consistent basis is location and movement on his fastball. Over the previous two years with the Twins, Pelfrey’s low-90s fastball was mostly seen hovering over the middle of the plate. Now he is hitting the low corners of the zone with solid movement: http://i.imgur.com/iAVcMwX.gif Download attachment: Fastball Location.png The results have been his highest ground ball rate on the pitch since 2010 because hitters are unable to barrel it up. While this may feel like an Arrested Development’s Ann moment, Mike Pelfrey has been good this season (“Him?”) and if he continues to twirl pitches the way he has while receiving competent infield defense behind him, he just might maintain throughout this surprising season. At the same time Pelfrey has outpaced his strand rate, benefited from the lowest batting average on balls in play of his career all while posting the second-lowest strikeout rate of his career -- there is room for regression. Click here to view the article
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For various reasons Pelfrey’s ability to sustain this success was questioned. Despite the swinging strikes, he really didn’t strike anyone out. He put a ton of baserunners on but managed to wiggle out of jams by the skin of his teeth. Surely the wheels were ready to come off. And when the Detroit Tigers pounded him for 10 hits over four innings a few short weeks later, it felt as if the foreboding avalanche of regression would leave no survivors. But then something unexpected happened: He didn’t regress. Mike Pelfrey went back out and threw 13 innings of 10 hit, two-run ball over his next two starts. Instead, he concluded Tuesday night’s victory over the Boston Red Sox tied with Edinson Volquez with a 2.77 ERA -- the 10th best in the American League. It is especially crazy considering his expected performance figures peg him to be around 4.50. How has he continued to outperform performance indicators like xFIP? Nine starts is by no means an ample sample but the traits that Pelfrey demonstrated in April have rolled over into May. In addition to the ERA (which should not be used in gauging the quality of a pitcher’s performance so stop using it), Pelfrey has managed to keep opposing hitters away from hard contact. According to ESPN/trumedia, he maintains a well-hit average of .103 -- this time 12th best in all of baseball. BaseballSavant.com’s batted ball velocity more or less confirms this, saying Pelfrey’s batted ball velocity of 87 mph is 18th among all qualified pitchers. Tons of contact but the vast majority of it is weak. Pelfrey’s inclusion of the splitter has elevated his arsenal to a new level. It is lethal against left-handed hitters and has kept right-handers honest to some degree. Watch the movement it showed in his last start against Pittsburgh. This was a nasty pitch that incited a silly swing from the Pirates’ Pedro Alvarez: http://i.imgur.com/sRa4T8a.gif This season’s splitter has a lack of spin and that provides drag and drop. When thrown with similar arm speed as a fastball it can produce some head-shaking swings. Pelfrey’s current .202 batting average against lefties is 10th lowest in baseball by a right-hander -- company that includes pitching elite like Felix Hernandez, Matt Harvey and Sonny Gray -- and that development undoubted coincides with his use of the splitter. The other reason he has been able to achieve weak contact on a consistent basis is location and movement on his fastball. Over the previous two years with the Twins, Pelfrey’s low-90s fastball was mostly seen hovering over the middle of the plate. Now he is hitting the low corners of the zone with solid movement: http://i.imgur.com/iAVcMwX.gif The results have been his highest ground ball rate on the pitch since 2010 because hitters are unable to barrel it up. While this may feel like an Arrested Development’s Ann moment, Mike Pelfrey has been good this season (“Him?”) and if he continues to twirl pitches the way he has while receiving competent infield defense behind him, he just might maintain throughout this surprising season. At the same time Pelfrey has outpaced his strand rate, benefited from the lowest batting average on balls in play of his career all while posting the second-lowest strikeout rate of his career -- there is room for regression.
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Article: Twins Draft Preview: Walker Buehler
Parker Hageman replied to Parker Hageman's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
That's the intriguing part of this year's draft class. By most accounts, it is a weaker class -- at least an in-between year from some strong classes. That said, Buehler probably isn't the best available in his rotation. -
Article: Twins Draft Preview: Walker Buehler
Parker Hageman replied to Parker Hageman's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I believe that has been their strategy for a while. No reason to stop that practice now. -
Vanderbilt’s Walker Buehler doesn’t possess the prototypical pitcher's frame but he does have an above average four-pitch mix and an apprenticeship from what has become one of the NCAA’s biggest pitching factory. Would the Twins find themselves with a steal or is Buehler a massive reach?Who is this guy? At 6-foot-1 and 175 pounds, Vanderbilt’s right-handed wiry starter Walker Buehler doesn’t have the projectable frame of the elite pitcher but he comes equipped with a strong assortment of pitches and clean mechanics to allow for some dirty pitches. Buehler can reach 96 comfortably with his fastball but sits 90-94. When he enrolled in college he had above average command of a big slow curve (72-73) and fading changeup (82-84) but he since added a hard slider (82) to his repertoire to complement the curve. Buehler is said to be a strong athlete when it comes to fielding his position. His pick-off move is reputed to be one of the best and his ability to handle anything hit between the mound and the plate is above average. A cog in the pitching-rich tradition of Vanderbilt, this past summer Baseball America rated Buehler as the top prospect in the prestigious Cape Cod summer league where he took home co-MVP honors after flashing a fastball that caused hitters to churn through the Massachusetts turf. Prior to the NCAA season started, many had Buehler going high in the first round. MLB.com’s Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo both projected him going sixth to the Twins. However, a sore elbow combined with average performances in key matchups have made his stock slip a little bit. Download attachment: USATSI_7966452_154617946_lowres.jpg Why the Twins will pick him Many evaluators believe that Buehler can be a fast mover in the system. Buehler who has an advanced repertoire, comes from Vanderbilt which has built quite the reputation for developing major league pitching. Since David Price’s selection, they have also produced Oakland’s Sonny Gray as well as other first- and second-round pitchers in Mike Minor (2009, 1st), Sam Selman (2012, 2nd), Kevin Ziomek (2013, 2nd) and Tyler Beede (2014, 1st) not to mention Carson Fulmer who will be another pick selected this year ahead of Buehler. Credit goes to the school’s pitching lab, developed by coach Tim Corbin and former assistant Derek Johnson (now a Cubs minor league assistant), which has enticed numerous high-end high school pitching talents to choose Vanderbilt to hone their craft rather than accepting major league money out of high school (Buehler is one of them who chose to play at Vanderbilt in lieu of accepting 14th round money from the Pittsburgh Pirates out of high school). Because of this, guys like Buehler enter an organization and are ready to contribute quickly. Why the Twins will not pick him Being undersized as a pitcher is always a concern for long-term projectability and Buehler’s elbow soreness may cause him to fall some more on draft day. While his mechanics and training can help him through the light workload of a college season, scouts have to be asking themselves if his body will be able to stand up to the rigors of a full professional season. In spite of the shutdown performance in the Cape Cod, Vanderbilt has used him mainly as a midweek and Sunday starter -- that’s college code for not the best pitcher on the staff. Friday nights are reserved for the team’s number one starter. Of course, it is not necessarily a bad thing when you have a pitcher like Fulmer who also projects as a high first-round pick competing ahead of you. With the sixth overall pick, if the Twins do select Buehler they likely are not acquiring the best available player at that time. Click here to view the article
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Who is this guy? At 6-foot-1 and 175 pounds, Vanderbilt’s right-handed wiry starter Walker Buehler doesn’t have the projectable frame of the elite pitcher but he comes equipped with a strong assortment of pitches and clean mechanics to allow for some dirty pitches. Buehler can reach 96 comfortably with his fastball but sits 90-94. When he enrolled in college he had above average command of a big slow curve (72-73) and fading changeup (82-84) but he since added a hard slider (82) to his repertoire to complement the curve. Buehler is said to be a strong athlete when it comes to fielding his position. His pick-off move is reputed to be one of the best and his ability to handle anything hit between the mound and the plate is above average. A cog in the pitching-rich tradition of Vanderbilt, this past summer Baseball America rated Buehler as the top prospect in the prestigious Cape Cod summer league where he took home co-MVP honors after flashing a fastball that caused hitters to churn through the Massachusetts turf. Prior to the NCAA season started, many had Buehler going high in the first round. MLB.com’s Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo both projected him going sixth to the Twins. However, a sore elbow combined with average performances in key matchups have made his stock slip a little bit. Why the Twins will pick him Many evaluators believe that Buehler can be a fast mover in the system. Buehler who has an advanced repertoire, comes from Vanderbilt which has built quite the reputation for developing major league pitching. Since David Price’s selection, they have also produced Oakland’s Sonny Gray as well as other first- and second-round pitchers in Mike Minor (2009, 1st), Sam Selman (2012, 2nd), Kevin Ziomek (2013, 2nd) and Tyler Beede (2014, 1st) not to mention Carson Fulmer who will be another pick selected this year ahead of Buehler. Credit goes to the school’s pitching lab, developed by coach Tim Corbin and former assistant Derek Johnson (now a Cubs minor league assistant), which has enticed numerous high-end high school pitching talents to choose Vanderbilt to hone their craft rather than accepting major league money out of high school (Buehler is one of them who chose to play at Vanderbilt in lieu of accepting 14th round money from the Pittsburgh Pirates out of high school). Because of this, guys like Buehler enter an organization and are ready to contribute quickly. Why the Twins will not pick him Being undersized as a pitcher is always a concern for long-term projectability and Buehler’s elbow soreness may cause him to fall some more on draft day. While his mechanics and training can help him through the light workload of a college season, scouts have to be asking themselves if his body will be able to stand up to the rigors of a full professional season. In spite of the shutdown performance in the Cape Cod, Vanderbilt has used him mainly as a midweek and Sunday starter -- that’s college code for not the best pitcher on the staff. Friday nights are reserved for the team’s number one starter. Of course, it is not necessarily a bad thing when you have a pitcher like Fulmer who also projects as a high first-round pick competing ahead of you. With the sixth overall pick, if the Twins do select Buehler they likely are not acquiring the best available player at that time.
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Let’s say you have been to hundreds of baseball games in your life and you’ve never gotten a baseball. Or better yet, you are looking to give your kids that magical experience of landing a ball. Where would you sit? It goes without saying that getting a ball at the ballpark has very low odds but here are some seating tips to increase your chances during the upcoming Boston Red Sox series at Target Field.NABBING A HOME RUN BALL Since Target Field has opened, outside of Toronto’s Jose Bautista (11), no visiting player has hit more long balls downtown Minneapolis than than David Ortiz (9). Actually, both Miguel Cabrera and Carlos Santana have equaled that number but have done so over 47 and 43 games compared to Ortiz’s 14 games. In fact, Ortiz managed to blast four home runs a year ago spread out in back-to-back games. There is something also unique about Ortiz’s Target Field home runs: They almost all landed in the same spot each time. Download attachment: export (1).png Two of Ortiz’s home runs from 2014 were hit off of Twins pitcher Ricky Nolasco and both landed just a mere row or two away from each other. http://i.imgur.com/TEiGiNP.gif http://i.imgur.com/dJ4EPJ7.gif As odds would have it, Nolasco is scheduled to start Monday’s 1:10 PM game. If you want to come home with a Big Papi home run ball (in addition to your Twins BBQ Branding Iron -- play safe kids!), you are going to want to seek out tickets in the Pavillon, Section 134 for that game where Ticket King has several seats left. That section can provide quick access to share or a few steps away from the Twins Pub which sells local Surly and Fulton beers. Download attachment: TicketKing_Ortiz.png Word to the wise: If a Ortiz home run ball manages to come your way but lands a row or two short, don’t wrestle a kid for the ball. Also, don’t try to convince the kid to throw the ball back onto the field, like this guy did. http://i.imgur.com/IVZvPS4.gif NABBING A TWINS HOME RUN So having a Boston Red Sox home run ball doesn’t do anything for you. Your best bet for a Twins home run ball is getting tickets in the Left Field Bleachers for Tuesday night’s 7:10 game. If all goes according to plan, you should wind up with a Brian Dozier home run ball. Download attachment: Brian Dozier Dingers.png Dozier is a notorious high ball hitter -- 34 of his 54 home runs have come on pitches in the upper third of the strike zone. Additionally, almost all of the them with the exception of some lone wolf home runs, were pull shots. http://i.imgur.com/BhMRRtU.gif Tuesday’s scheduled starter for the Red Sox is Rick Porcello who absolutely loves pumping high fastballs this year. He has thrown almost half of his fastballs in the upper third (49%) which is well above the league norm. If he insists on doing the same to Dozier, there is an excellent chance fireworks will ensue. Download attachment: TicketKing_Dozier.png Failing that, Trevor Plouffe is the current active player with the most home runs at Target Field (40). Plouffe also enjoys the Left Field Bleachers and Home Run Porch as his favorite landing spots. Any Kind Of Ball Will Do If you want to be closer to the action and possibly pampered, the Dugout Boxes, Legends Club or Home Plate Box is your best bet in corralling a foul ball during Thursday’s getaway day game. http://i.imgur.com/BTqCfTd.gif The Legends Club seats that hug the home plate area seemingly receive the majority of the lofted foul balls, those that are gentle to catch with bare hands. If you are in the Home Plate Box area, sometimes those fouls ricochet back down from the exclusive seating area into the gen pop. Finally, if you want to catch the white whale of foul balls -- the screaming liner -- the Dugout Box is your spot. This is the section where hitters will rocket pitches they are fighting off to stay alive, so make sure you pay attention so you also stay alive. Good luck. Click here to view the article
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NABBING A HOME RUN BALL Since Target Field has opened, outside of Toronto’s Jose Bautista (11), no visiting player has hit more long balls downtown Minneapolis than than David Ortiz (9). Actually, both Miguel Cabrera and Carlos Santana have equaled that number but have done so over 47 and 43 games compared to Ortiz’s 14 games. In fact, Ortiz managed to blast four home runs a year ago spread out in back-to-back games. There is something also unique about Ortiz’s Target Field home runs: They almost all landed in the same spot each time. Two of Ortiz’s home runs from 2014 were hit off of Twins pitcher Ricky Nolasco and both landed just a mere row or two away from each other. http://i.imgur.com/TEiGiNP.gif http://i.imgur.com/dJ4EPJ7.gif As odds would have it, Nolasco is scheduled to start Monday’s 1:10 PM game. If you want to come home with a Big Papi home run ball (in addition to your Twins BBQ Branding Iron -- play safe kids!), you are going to want to seek out tickets in the Pavillon, Section 134 for that game where Ticket King has several seats left. That section can provide quick access to share or a few steps away from the Twins Pub which sells local Surly and Fulton beers. Word to the wise: If a Ortiz home run ball manages to come your way but lands a row or two short, don’t wrestle a kid for the ball. Also, don’t try to convince the kid to throw the ball back onto the field, like this guy did. http://i.imgur.com/IVZvPS4.gif NABBING A TWINS HOME RUN So having a Boston Red Sox home run ball doesn’t do anything for you. Your best bet for a Twins home run ball is getting tickets in the Left Field Bleachers for Tuesday night’s 7:10 game. If all goes according to plan, you should wind up with a Brian Dozier home run ball. Dozier is a notorious high ball hitter -- 34 of his 54 home runs have come on pitches in the upper third of the strike zone. Additionally, almost all of the them with the exception of some lone wolf home runs, were pull shots. http://i.imgur.com/BhMRRtU.gif Tuesday’s scheduled starter for the Red Sox is Rick Porcello who absolutely loves pumping high fastballs this year. He has thrown almost half of his fastballs in the upper third (49%) which is well above the league norm. If he insists on doing the same to Dozier, there is an excellent chance fireworks will ensue. Failing that, Trevor Plouffe is the current active player with the most home runs at Target Field (40). Plouffe also enjoys the Left Field Bleachers and Home Run Porch as his favorite landing spots. Any Kind Of Ball Will Do If you want to be closer to the action and possibly pampered, the Dugout Boxes, Legends Club or Home Plate Box is your best bet in corralling a foul ball during Thursday’s getaway day game. http://i.imgur.com/BTqCfTd.gif The Legends Club seats that hug the home plate area seemingly receive the majority of the lofted foul balls, those that are gentle to catch with bare hands. If you are in the Home Plate Box area, sometimes those fouls ricochet back down from the exclusive seating area into the gen pop. Finally, if you want to catch the white whale of foul balls -- the screaming liner -- the Dugout Box is your spot. This is the section where hitters will rocket pitches they are fighting off to stay alive, so make sure you pay attention so you also stay alive. Good luck.
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Can you even imagine trying to explain advanced stats to Tom Bernard? The thing about the eye test is that while some people watch a high percentage of games and formulate an opinion based on those events, there are numerous people who cite an eye test based on things they watched from several years ago combined with whatever reputation the player developed over that time. Reputations happen for a reason. Consider that Terry Ryan, a very good evalutator of talent, questioned whether Plouffe would have made that play even a year ago. I question whether, defensively, the eye test can compete with data but at the same time whether data analysts can recognize changes in the data. /BallNerdOut

