Don't Feed the Greed Guy

Great article, Parker. Especially the "Pizza Roll" face! I was at Yankee Stadium for #10. Our family was in the upper deck when Hicks gunned down Wells. We sat through an hour and 15 minute rain delay, and when play resumed the weather had pushed together a group of us Twins fans, congregated under the overhang. After the play, our little Twins section went absolutely ballistic! I'll have fond memories of high-fiving some old guy in a Blyleven throwback jersey. Great memory. Thanks for the reminder. Nice work.

Castro would be the one, on a dream and a prayer. He had quite a drop-off in production last year, going from 2012 numbers of .283/.323/.430 to .245/.284/.347 in 2013. Agreed that he would "cost a lot more than players we no longer want." He's also locked in, with a team option for 2020.

Castro would be the one, on a dream and a prayer. He had quite a drop-off in production last year, going from 2012 numbers of .283/.323/.430 to .245/.284/.347 in 2013. Agreed that he would "cost a lot more than players we no longer want." He's also locked in, with a team option for 2020.

Who is eliminating half the draft pool? Me? You have turned my argument--positional bias in favor in favor of college-level pitchers into a straw-man argument where I am now eliminating half the draft pool. Also, James' research was conducted over several years, on a longitudinal basis, beyond just the 80's. So, now you want to narrow his findings too. Why? You say that college vs. high school considerations are a "small weighting" come draft time. At least you are willing to admit that there is some weight here. Let's call it a draw, kab21, and enjoy the speculation. That's all we're doing here, anyway. Speculating...

So, the Twins deal a utility player/catcher whose concussion history makes one wonder if he's willing/able to catch. They gain a superior defensive catcher (Suzuki), a former 1st round draft pitcher (Gilmartin), and they make room for a young, up-and-coming catcher (Pinto). What's not to like? Oh, and they sign another potential DH (Kubel) to replace Doumit's at-bats, while providing Arcia and Willingham more opportunities to hit off the bench. Cool.

Or, before the season begins. How about packaging Deduno, Worley, Duensing, or Swarzak for a shortstop?

The disconnect lies in a basic misunderstanding between the role of organizational strategy and operational tactics. Draft strategy begins with evaluating player talent over the next seven months. It also includes weighing the relative advantages or disadvantages of drafting a college-level player over/against a high school player. It would be foolish to make decisions without consulting this data, just as it would be foolish to lock in on a decision now. Sabermetricians like Bill James have helped general managers devise a draft strategy before a tactical decision must be made in a draft-day "war room." I'm arguing that a good strategy would be to weigh the potential advantage of a college-seasoned draftee against the potential disadvantage of choosing a high school talent that has not faced a higher level of competition. The fun is found in speculating what will happen as the Astros, Marlins, White Sox, and Cubs make picks 1-4. Then, the Twin's front office will make a tactical decision, based upon a strategic theory. I'm trying to make the case for including Bill James' findings as part of that strategic theory--that's all. Baseball--like war, firefighting, and other strategic enterprises, has interlocking rings of Doctrine (Rule 21:no betting on baseball!), Strategy (sabermetricians' realm), Tactics (filling out a lineup, calling a pitch), and Operations (making that pitch, swinging away, fielding a grounder hit deep into the hole, planting, pivoting, and throwing to first base.) Someday I'll post a blog on this.

I have said, and continue to say, that the Twins should be prejudiced toward college-level talent. The statistical data goes back several decades, and continues to this day. This does not mean that a high school-level talent can't overule conventional wisdom. I have not stated that "ALL high school players shoud be avoided at pick #5." Did I say that? But this draft squares up with a number of college-level arms that could be legitimate top 5 picks. Given the statistical preponderance of evidence supporting college talent, and the nature of the 2014 draft, the balances continue to swing in the direction of pitchers like Hoffman, Finnegan and Beede. Cmb0252 refers to http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/top-100-draft-flashback-what-does-it-all-mean/ but there is no smoking gun here. Can anyone argue that the Twins would be better off looking at high school talent over and above college talent in the 2014 draft? Convince me with a counter-argument. Finally, it's unlikely that the Twins will land a future Hall of Fame pitcher at #5, but that doesn't mean we can't wish, can't we? Nobody, no NOBODY has drafted a HOF pitcher in the top 10 since before 1965. Here's hoping that the Twins break that cycle!http://voices.washingtonpost.com/nationalsjournal/2009/05/final_word_on_top-10_pick_pitc.html?wprss=nationalsjournal

Buxton and Stewart offer a small sample size. The benefit of Bill James' longitudinal research is that multiple players were evaluated over several years of draft data. J.C. Bradbury evaluates several of Bill James' theories in the following post. Scroll down to #9 if you want to read his entire rebuttal on James' theory on drafting college players. Here's his argument in a nutshell: "The college draft pool is more certain: not only do we know the good players, we know the bad ones too. Part of the reason the returns to drafting college players are better is that teams stop drafting college players once the good ones are gone." http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2010/12/agreeing-and-disagreeing-with-bill-james/ Two other writers identify with James' research. Carl Bialik writes "Why it Pays to Go to College" http://blogs.wsj.com/dailyfix/2009/06/10/the-count-why-it-pays-to-go-to-college/ Bialik quotes several sources to prove his point, most notably Keith Scherer, an analyst for Baseball Prospectus. His findings: "65 percent of the collegians earned at least one Win Share through their Age 30 seasons; only 41 percent of the high schoolers did the same. Seven of the top 10 Win Shares earners through Age 30 were collegians. The collegians account for 64 percent of all Win Shares earned by these two groups (again, through their Age 30 seasons).The high-school draftees earned an average of 15 Win Shares through age 30. Their college counterparts earned 26 Win Shares, a 65 percent lead over the high schoolers. (That difference of 11 Win Shares equals roughly four victories.) Even if we consider only the pitchers who reached the majors, the collegians still do better: an average of 41 Win Shares for the college guys, 37 for the high schoolers. http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?id=1811682 I've been surfing the net, trying to find other longitudinal studies that include more recent data. All the same, it would take a dramatic shift of success by high school players to overcome the weight of evidence that already exists--drafting a college-level ballplayer is a better bet than drafting a high school player.

Oakland has drafted a college player in the first round with ten of their last twelve picks, since 2002—the last two years being the notable exceptions. In 2013, sixteen of their top twenty picks were college players—fourteen of twenty in 2012, but with five of the top seven picks being high schoolers. Those numbers are pretty close to the Twins,who picked fourteen of twenty college players in 2012, and sixteen of twenty in 2013. Oakland’s College Draftees by year: 2011: 19 of 20; 2010; 15 of 20; 2009; 14 of 20; 2008: 16 of20; 2007: 18 of 20; 2006: 15 of 20; 2005: 13 of 20; 2004: 17 of 20; 2003: 20 of20; 2002: 20 of 20. It appears that Oakland was more rigorous in their pursuit of college ballplayers in the early 2000’s. But even in 2002, several high school players were taken in the later rounds. Given the potential pool of talent in June of 2014, I would be prejudiced toward drafting a college-level arm, without simply making that a default position. If 2014's version of Buxton or Russell are on the board, pick 'em. Problem is--unlike football and basketball drafts--talent scouts don't know if they have a Buxton or a bust until years later. That's why the statistics point toward betting on the college-level talent. That's where I'd lean, plain and simple.

The point is to see what happens between now and June, including a drop in performance by these two--to the point where they may be available at #5. Not likely, but a guy can dream, can't he?

Instead of BPA (best player available), this draft calls for the best college-level starting pitcher available (BCLSPA!). Reason? The depth of college-level talent in draft, the Twins need for starting pitching, and finally, this quote from Michael Lewis' Moneyball. as Billy Beane and the Oakland A's positioned themselves for the 2002 amateur draft: (Bill James) looked into the history of the draft and discovered that ‘college players are a better investment than high school players by a huge, huge, laughably huge margin.’ The conventional wisdom of baseball insiders—that high school players were more likely to become superstars—was also demonstrably false... Paul DePodesta, the head of R & D for the Oakland A’s, made his own study of (Bill James’ theory). As a result of that study, the Oakland A’s front office, over the silent shrieks of their own older scouts were about to implement a radical new idea about young men and baseball (pgs. 98-99). Four to watch between now and June: Carlos Rodon, LHP, North Carolina State Jeff Hoffman, RHP, East Carolina Brandon Finnegan, LHP, Texas Christian Tyler Beede, RHP, Vanderbilt

Signing Mike Pelfrey in the 2013-14 offseason feels a lot like signing Kevin Correia in the 2012-13 offseason. Two years and roughly 10-11 million dollars. I hated the Correia signing, and I was wrong. I'm oddly content with the Pelfrey signing. I think he's got more upside, he's known in the organization--compared to Correia a year ago--and he wants to be here. I think Twins fans expected the front office to go out and get top of the rotation pitchers in free agency. Terry Ryan did that last year, in going after Alex Meyer, Trevor May, and Kohl Stewart. Add Kyle Gibson and Jose Berrios, and you see the potential for mid-to-top of the rotation arms emerging in 2014, 2015, 2016, and 2017. Until then, the Twins are positioned to keep and hold back-of-the-rotation workhorses that pitch 200 innings, hold serve with .500 records, and stabilize a pitching staff. Phil Hughes, Ricky Nolasco, and Kevin Pelfrey are all of that, and then some. They have the potential to surprise us with a sub 4 ERA, or a 17 win season. Correia? Not so much... I'm okay with this, even though I will be bringing my sundial to the ballpark, to clock Pelfrey as he walks around the mound between pitches. All the same, thanks Nick, for encouraging us to Find Positives in Pelfrey.

Great post Chad. Your publicity, as I hear, has resulted in a second signing for Pelfrey. Chapstik has reportedly offered him a 2 year promotional gig...

Best TR analysis of the offseason! Love this quote. BTW: Nobody mentions my guy Swarzak as a candidate for the rotation. Seth writes, "If the Twins do not sign any other starting pitchers or make any trades, Sam Deduno, Kyle Gibson, Andrew Albers, Kris Johnson, Scott Diamond, Vance Worley and Alex Meyer will be competing for the fifth starter job." With good numbers, and no wrestling injuries during Twins Fest this year, he's got as much chance as anyone above as the 5th starter. Swarzak, Diamond, and Worley could rotate as 5th starters/long relievers based upon innings pitched.

Two words: Soul Patrol. Great name for the 2001 outfield of Jacque Jones, Torii Hunter, and Matt Lawton, the only all African-American outfield in MLB at the time. Two great retrospectives here: First a blog by LEN 3: http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/blogs/97490179.html And another by Cody Christie, where he projects the coming of Soul Patrol II: http://www.nodaktwinsfan.com/2013/05/soul-patrol-back-with-vengeance.html Jones, even more so than Lawton and Hunter, brought the soul into the Soul Patrol. His charisma brought life to a milquetoast league. More than ever, baseball is a League of Nations, and we are all better for it, because of characters like Jacque Jones. And who can forget his bat flip? Here's a hilarious video of his one home run in a Detroit Tigers uniform:

I'm in. Two tix.

Corey Hart: Age 30 2012 OPS: .842 Career OPS: .824 Missed 2013 with a knee injury.

LEN3 writes that Mike Morse wants $7 million a year. WOW! http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/235335911.html Maybe there is a market for The Hammer after all... Morse: age 31 2013 OPS: .651 Career OPS: .808 Kubel: age 31 2013 OPS: .610 Career OPS: .785 Hammer: age 34 2013 OPS: .709 Career OPS: .830

Prediction: Arroyo will re-sign with Cincinnati. According to LEN3, the Reds are back at the bargaining table with their longtime starting right-hander. This is classic negotiation. Test the market, show the home team that you have willing suitors chirping on the wire, and then return to the nest. http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/235335911.html MLB Rumors has Mike Berardino tweeting (sorry, I don't tweet...) that the Twins want Arroyo for the top of their rotation, above Nolasco, and Hughes. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/12/overnight-notes-masterson-twins-rockies-myers.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+MlbTradeRumors+%28MLB+Trade+Rumors%29 So, basically the Twins came back and said something like 'Come to our nest, and we will give you the catbird seat.' Money will feather the nest. Ryan keeps hinting that the Twins have more money to spend, and that they aren't done in free agency. But I wonder... Many on this site are more than stunned by not one but TWO free agent signings. Three seems like such a huge stretch of "Twins Way" credulity that many can't imagine such extravagant spending. Could it be true? Nah, Arroyo is playing with the Reds. I'm willing to bet that he flies back home, to that nest we have come to know as the Great American Ballpark.

Cuddyer, but it would be a great story if Morneau exceeds Cuddy's 20-25 big flies. BTW the family vacation goes through Coors Field in July, when the Twins are in Denver. Gonna be fun.

Yep, this is the primary qualification for Pinto sticking behind the plate. In the best of possible worlds he continues to develop his skills after winter ball, and into the spring to the point where he's a funtioning, developing backstop throughout 2014. We haven't seen his ceiling yet as a defensive player. He has room to grow into his catching gear. It would be fun to see him develop at the major league level, mirroring the growth he's shone while ascending through the minors.

Pessimist: Presley, because it means that Arcia is struggling, or the defacto DH after Willingham is unloaded after the All-Star break. Hicks is in AAA. Realist: Arcia, He's in the lineup on a day-to-day basis because he's fielding his position and the Hammer is still DHing after the trade deadline because the Twins aren't selling him. Optimist: Hicks, because he has conquered his 2013 demons and has become a mainstay in the outfield, and at the top of the batting order. Arcia is DHing by the end of the year because Buxton has taken over in center, Hicks is at one of the corners, and we are in a pennant race. BTW: I voted for Presley.

Can we agree that if Pinto turns out to be the right answer--most games at catcher in 2014--that will be qualified as a success?

Here's an interesting article by Clave Jones, entitled "Should the Twins Trade For Brett Anderson? http://fantasybaseballcrackerjacks.com/2013/12/04/minnesota-twins-trade-brett-anderson/ Jones quotes Reusse and Mackey, who were discussing such a trade on 1500 ESPN yesterday. Evidently Reusse and Mackey were dropping names like Rosario, Arcia, May, and Gibson as potential bait for the Oakland leftie. That seems outrageous to me. But it's a fun read. Take a look.