Don't Feed the Greed Guy

Yes, with this qualification: Can Plouffe blossom like Cuddyer and Ortiz did, after their 27th birthdays? Cuddyer and Ortiz fall into a category of 'late bloomers.' However, they showed more promise than Plouffe during the earlier stages of their careers.

Sorry, Chief. .450 to .500 at best, in the transitional year of 2014. For the record: 2011 = .389 2012 = .407 2013 = .407

Great article. Some basic rules: Build from within. Draft well. Trade up when you are in contention: with the classic example being the Bobby Kielty for Shannon Stewart trade. Free Agent signings rarely work. Microwave teams don't go worst to first, with Boston being the exception. Don't spend $ just to appease the fan base in the offseason.

Great points, all around. Man, I'm going to have to take out a loan to pay for all of these steak dinners!

What happens if the Twins are in contention at the All-Star break? That's one of my fears--strange as that must sound. Willingham finds his power, Correia starts strong like last year, http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?id=correke01&t=p&year=2013, and Buxton, Sano, and Meyer get rushed to the majors. How much fun would that be? Do you trade someone like Rosario for an ace/pending free agent who can pitch us into the postseason? It would be a nice problem to have, but transition, to me, means another year of .450 to .500 ball.

Apologies for the confusion. Again, I do NOT think Plouffe is the Second Coming of Ortiz, or Cuddyer, for that matter. He could be a super-utility 3rd baseman/corner outfielder and an emergency shortstop if Gardy pinch hits Plouffe for Florimon/Escobar. As far as the five week power fluke, what's really telling is Plouffe's lack of power throughout the minors. http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=plouff001tre .725 OPS over nine MILB seasons, and 15 homers twice (+8 more in the majors, 2011). His career year may have been 2012.

Leviathan, please read to the end of the paragraph, where I state that "Plouffe's numbers from ages 24-26 are well below these guys." I, like you, don't think there is much of a comparison with Ortiz and Cuddyer, although other posters in this thread brought up their names in reference to Plouffe. My point is that that there isn't much of a positive correlation--other than the fact that Cuddyer and Ortiz were late bloomers who caught fire around age 27. They had already shown, in their younger years, more promise than Plouffe has shown to date. I didn't mean to bug you. I don't think he's the next Ortiz. But I do think he can hit 20+ home runs in 2014, and eventually replace a declining Willingham in left field. I also wouldn't be surprised if he has a career year. All the same, he's not Ortiz, or Cuddyer. Are we clear on that?

There are interesting comparisons between Trevor Plouffe, Michael Cuddyer, and David Ortiz. Cuddyer and Ortiz both blossomed at age 27, when they both added about 100 points to their OPS numbers. But Plouffe's numbers from ages 24-26 are well below these guys. With that being said, this is Plouffe's year to shine, before Sano pushes him either off the roster, or into a super-utility role (3b and a corner outfielder). As stated above, this is his time to replace Willingham, but it will take a career year to do it. I like his chances more than Parmelee's to stick with the club. As for Duensing, he's a solid bullpen lefty. Yes, he has a heartbeat, and he's a lefty who should be in the bullpen for obvious reasons--increased velocity, and his second half in 2013 is one to grow on. Swarzak is the dark horse candidate for the 5th starter job, provided he doesn't screw around during WrestleMania--I mean Twins Fest. Like Seth said above, he's a steal at $935k

This is the most entertaining debate I've seen on TD. It just keeps chirping along. Hopefully we can keep this up through Spring Training until P-Flow silences all of his detractors with a .330 OBP in April... Hey, a guy can dream, can't he? Obviously, I agree with Reider, on many of the points above. Florimon is just fun to watch in the field. I like watching great defense. But, as the saying goes, "chicks dig the long ball." Another take on the Florimon debate, from the near blogosphere. Perhaps you have already heard of him? His name is "Peduardo Florscobar" http://smartpitcher.blogspot.com/2014/01/14-players-to-watch-in-14-peduardo.html Here's a lively analysis that parallels many of the point made here, sans Drew. Y'all might find it entertaining...

To what projections do you refer? The Twins have spent a ton of money in the offseason on free agent pitchers. How does that fit into your projections? To be fair, I agree that the Twins have some more money to spend. I'm not opposed to seeing the Pohlad family spend more money, but I'd like to see them spend the right money on the right players. Spycake thinks that a competitive offer for Drew would be 2 yrs/$24m or 3/30. I just don't think that's the right upgrade for a player that seems to be willing to admit that his skills are waning--as he's willing to take on a utility role: http://www.gammonsdaily.com/gammons-notes-gregory-polanco-toronto-pitching-stephen-drew-and-braves-payroll/ In the meantime, we have a second-year shortstop locked in at $500k. He's an above average to excellent talent in the field. He and Dozier play well together. Let's not break up the band yet. The team should improve by leaps and bounds when players like Buxton and Sano arrive. It can also improve incrementally if players like Hicks and Florimon can raise their OBP to over .300. Is that too much to ask?

Great synopsis, Reider. I think of this as a payroll management move too. Florimon's fantastic defense arrives on a budget--Drew's added production will not. I also would like to see a rangy shortstop next to Sano on the left side of the infield. Reports are that Sano has soft hands and a cannon arm, but he's a big guy, without the lateral movement of other third basemen--and he's still growing. The Twins will need a vacuum at short who can go deep into the hole and make plays on balls that Sano might not get a glove on.

I have an old Morneau Team Canada jersey from the 2006 WBC. Morneau's number is #27, because Larry Walker had #33 that year. People ask me why his number is #27 on the jersey, and it's fun to replay, deadpan, "#27 is #33--according to the metric system..." Anyway, Morneau tossed me a ball in 2007 at an Orioles game at Camden Yards, then he signed the jersey. The jersey has been a draw ever since. He once signed a ball for my son, "Happy Birthday, John, 5/15/09" Justin Morneau" I kept the ball in my sock drawer until the following season, and when Morneau stepped to the plate against the Yankees, John got his birthday present. On the next pitch, Morneau hit a home run off Phil Hughes. Since then our family has attended two or three away games each year, and a few Spring Training tilts--one where we came up with a screaming Brian Dinkleman foul ball over the third base dugout. But my favorite moment was the last year in the Marlins/Joe Robbie Stadium. I was at a conference in Florida, and the family came along for a few vacation days. The Reds were playing the Marlins, and Ricky Nolasco gave up a home run to right field. The ball landed in the tunnel where the grounds crew keeps its equipment. My youngest boy, six years old at the time, could hardly catch a beach ball. But he stood on tiptoes and peered over the railing anyway. The groundskeeper soft tossed the ball into his waiting hands for a perfect two-handed catch. The proudest little boy in the world held the ball high over his head while the whole section cheered. Now that Hughes and Nolasco are Twins, hopefully that's the end of home run stories involving those two pitchers...

Okay, after a few days away, I think I've cooled down enough to respond to your claim that ballplayers' production from different eras is no longer "relevant in this discussion." The whole structure of player analysis is based upon years of collected data, otherwise why keep stats at all? Great... (sorry for the snark) Brock's point in #165 is worth noting--there are some adjustments that can be made for era and ballpark, but those adjustments are hardly statistically significant. At least he backed up his claim with some statistical weight. You just blasted me without making a convincing counter-argument based upon facts. You mention that someone, somewhere must have "blind optimism" that Florimon's numbers will increase during his second year facing major league competition. Let's remember that ballplayers do tend to improve once they have faced big league talent over the course of 2000+ plate appearances. That's a fact--not merely blind optimism. My main gripe, Kab, is your categorical dismissal of a point-counterpoint debate. You did the same in the 2014 mock draft thread--dismissing Bill James' analysis of drafting college-level talent vs. high school prospects without presenting facts that support a logical counter argument. All you said was that the data is too old. That's not convincing unless you can support your claim with a compelling counter claim. Finally, we are "discussing" a player who showed significant statistical improvement in OPS over his last three years in the minor leagues. (.741 in 2011 and .670 in 2012) in spite of some pretty horrendous number is the lower levels of the minors. Florimon yo-yo'ed back and forth between A-/A+ and AA for several years. Even though Pedro struggled as he climbed up through the minors, his second year in each level showed marked improvement, most notably in 2010-11 when he was at AA Bowie in the Orioles' farm system where he raised his OPS from .483 to .781. There's a trend here, if you bother to look at the data. Florimon has consistently struggled each time he's moved up the ladder, but he has adjusted with each level and improved along the way. Like you, I hope he doesn't hit worse in 2014. The numbers seem to indicate that he could/should improve. I'd like to see that happen in a Twins uniform. If not, I owe you a beer. You name the pub, and I'll be glad to buy.

Mark Belanger: .580 OPS, career. Ozzie Smith: .666 OPS for his career (sub .500 for his first four seasons) Greg Gagne: Sub .500 over his first 350 plate appearances, and then he started raising his slugging percentage. Again, there are other examples. It's just that I LOVED seeing these guys bring their talents to the game. They made their teams better. By the way, I ran into a guy from Massachusetts while on vacation last week. He played against Gagne during high school. He remembered Gagne as a pretty average ballplayer, who just kept working on his game. It was a fascinating conversation, especially given the backdrop of this thread. How cool, huh? It's another testimony to hard work. Some scout in the Yankees organization found promise in this hard-working kid from Fall River, MA. Three years later he's traded to the Twins for Roy Smalley (yes, and we picked up Ron Davis too... Yikes!). We know what happened with Davis, but the gem of the deal was a shortstop who kept working on his game and became a fixture in the Twins lineup for seven years--their starting shortstop for fourteen very meaningful postseason games. Thanks for the conversation, guys. I hope to pick it up again during the football games tomorrow afternoon.

Very true. So what is the Twin's #2 selection worth? I took a look at all the players picked #5 in the second round, over the past 25 years or so, dating back to the time when a certain MLB franchise won its first World Series. Yes, a very unscientific study that doesn't factor in compensation rounds, upcoming trades, and other variables that are still pending... The most recent 2nd round #5 draftee to make "The Show" is Anthony Gose (2008), followed by Josh Fields (2007), Chris Tillman (2006), Yovanni Gallardo (2004), Shane Costa (2003), Darrell Risner (2002), Rene Rivera (2001), and Rob Bowen (1999). Other notables? Milton Bradley (1996) Brian Hunter (1989) And, going back a little further.... George Brett (1971) Bill Buckner (1968)

Plouffe and Parms can't match Florimon's defense. I find your comment "there should be very little debate..." quite ironic. I find this to be a good, engaging debate. It's a worthwhile conversation. This thread reveals a pretty nuanced conversation regarding the pro's and con's of Florimon's defensive upside, versus his offensive liabilities. I think there's still room for debate.

And Ortiz' defense will never match Florimon's even if he was fielding in a wiffle ball league.

David Ortiz logged 3895 professional plate appearances (1477 in the majors) when the Twins made the logical choice, and released him. He was 27 years old. The proving line is typically 4000 professional plate appearances--2000 in the majors, before a professional hitter is properly seasoned. With all due respect, I don't think this is the year to give up on Florimon, and his 606 MLB PA's.

Aaron Hicks and Pedro Florimon: Raise our collective On-Base Percentage to over .600 Life Resolution: Write a co-autobiography/memoir of their sophomore explosions--not unlike Keyshawn Johnson's unforgettable rookie memoir Just Give Me the Damn Ball!: The Fast Times and Hard Knocks of an NFL Rookie. Suggested title? Just Hit the Damn Ball: The Slick Gloves and Trained Bats of Two Spectacular Sophomores http://siextramustard.files.wordpress.com/2013/06/keyshawn-jets-damn-ball-book1.jpg%3Fw%3D500%26h%3D484

Hey all, I just want to say that I find the discussion regarding a shortstop's offensive and defensive value fascinating. The epitome of all field/no hit from the SS is Mark Belanger, one of my boyhood idols. There's a wonderful biography of Belanger on the SABR site: http://sabr.org/bioproj/person/bbcae277 Author, Frank Vaccaro A few great snippets, below from Mr. Vaccaro, who writes almost as well as Mr. Belanger flashed his glove. Mark "The Blade" Belanger died of complications with lung disease, on Oct. 6, 1998. He was 54 years old. "He never seemed to actually catch a ball; rather he redirected them into his throwing hand. Sports Illustrated once wrote: 'Belanger would glide effortlessly after a grounder and welcome it into loving arms; scooping the ball up with a single easy motion, and bringing it to his chest for a moment’s caress before making his throw.'" "In 18 years, he never dove for a ball, insisting that an all-out sprint was faster and maintained the mechanics of the play. And he was supremely confident: He never wore a protective cup." "Belanger went to spring training with the Orioles in 1963. Ron Hansen, whom the Orioles had just traded to the Chicago White Sox, approached the rookie with this advice: “Learn to rock forward as the pitcher delivers the ball instead of starting from zero.”3 Belanger took it to heart. Over the years he not only leaned forward but anticipated left or right based on batter tendencies and pitch location. Sometimes Belanger would break right and then correct himself and break left – all before the crack of the bat on the ball." "Belanger played for Earl Weaver at three levels (of minor league ball) along the way, and Weaver told him, 'You're my shortstop if you hit .0001.'" "(H)e hit just .208 in his first year as a starting player.The next spring bullpen coach Charlie Lau approached Belanger to offer batting tips. Lau kept track of every pitch Belanger saw that year, sending him up to bat with instructions to take and swing on specific counts, and encouraging him to expect certain pitches in certain spots based on previous batter-pitcher matchups. Belanger responded with his best batting season ever, won his first of eight Gold Gloves, and earned the nickname Blade for his silhouette as Baltimore rolled to a team record 109 wins. He hit for a .287 average with 50 RBIs." We could only hope for that sort of improvement from P-Flo... (cracks me up almost as much as Pujols...) "The tradeoff between Belanger’s lousy offense and great defense was usually one Weaver was willing to make, but he was not above trying to gain an edge. In September of 1975, Weaver often used Royle Stillman as the shortstop high in the starting lineup in road games, allowing rookie Stillman to bat in the first inning and Belanger to replace him in the bottom of the first. Stillman was an outfielder, and never played an inning of shortstop in his career, despite his six “starts” there in 1975. He hit 3-for-6 in these games. Belanger holds the American League career record for being pinch-hit for – 333 times. And if he wasn’t being pinch-hit for, he was sacrificing; his league-leading 23 sacrifices in 1975 were an Oriole record at least through 2009. In 1976, Belanger carried a .300 average into June and earned over a million votes in the All-Star balloting, making the team as a backup. When Peter Gammons wrote, 'Belanger could be the first 140 lb. weakling to win the MVP award,'18 Belanger sought him out at Fenway Park and confronted him: 'I’m 170 pounds, and I’m not a weakling.'" Sorry for the extended quotes. I hope they are accepted in good form, and attributed properly. Now, back to Florimon. Great discussion guys.

Great acticle, Thrylos, especially myth #2. Way to go, Mythbuster! I expect a lot of this apparent "logjam" will wash out and untangle as the tides rise during Spring Training. It'll play itself out on the field.

In a nutshell, I'd say Gardenhire should ink in Florimon as the #9 batter in the 2014-15-16 lineup, until a prospect from within the organization (Santana, Polanco, Trea Turner in the 2014 draft?) makes a compelling argument for a position/lineup change.

I think this is a key strategic question. Here's a post I shared in another forum, related to Aaron Hick's 2013 OBP. It may produce more fruitful conversation here: "There's a lot of talk here about Hicks, but how about Florimon too? Perhaps we could see a statistical improvement in on-base percentage similar to Dozier's sophomore season: [TABLE=width: 700] Player's OBP (Plate Appearances) Minors (PA) 1st Year MLB (PA) 2nd Year MLB (PA) Brian Dozier .370 (1613) .271 (340) .312 (558) Aaron Hicks .376 (2192) .259 (313) ??? Pedro Florimon .321 (2900) .281 (446)* ??? [/TABLE] *Florimon had 160 MLB plate appearances in 2011-12) Dozier's OBP climbed 41 points between his 1st and 2nd full seasons with the Twins (his slugging percentage also climbed 82 points). It may be unrealistic for both Florimon and Hicks' OBP to climb over .300 OBP in their second full MLB seasons, but even a modest increase should tilt the balance toward more overall runs scored. Also, factor the uptick both Hicks and Florimon bring in the field over/against all of the other available options. We want these guys in the field. Now if they can only reach base..." I really appreciated Reider's points about watching Florimon, and what his glove brings to the game. But I wonder about a SS who posted a .321 OBP for his minor league career. However, Greg Gagne's career MLB OBP is .302 and Christian Guzman's OBP didn't climb above .300 until his third year with the Twins (.269 & .299 in 1999 & 2000) so there is a precedent in the Twins organization for playing shortstops with below-average offense in favor of above-average defense.

I'm looking for two extra tickets. If anyone can't go, send me a message, please.

There's a lot of talk here about Hicks, but how about Florimon too? Perhaps we could see a statistical improvement in on-base percentage similar to Dozier's sophomore season: Player's OBP Minors (PA) 1st Year (PA) 2nd year (PA) Dozier .370 (1613) .271 (340) .312 (558) Hicks .376 (2192) .259 (313) Florimon .321 (2900) .281 (446)* (*Florimon had 160 plate appearances in 2011-12) Dozier's OBP climbed 41 points between his 1st and 2nd full seasons with the Twins (his slugging percentage also climbed 82 points). It may be unrealistic for both Florimon and Hicks' OBP to climb over .300 OBP in their second full MLB seasons, but even a modest increase should tilt the balance toward more overall runs scored. Also, factor the uptick both Hicks and Florimon bring in the field over/against all of the other available options. We want these guys in the field. Now if they can only reach base...