Don't Feed the Greed Guy

Hey all you Terry Ryan fans, How about this scenario? The Pohlad family retools this offseason, releasing Gardy and Terry Ryan, while bringing back Andy MacPhail as the general manager of baseball operations, along with his choice for an on-field manager, hopefully Paul Molitor. Andy is being credited with much of the success in the Baltimore Orioles organization, although they let his contract expire after the 2011 season. Under Buck Showalter, Andy's hire, the Orioles have surged with many players that came to Baltimore via trade and signings orchestrated by Lee MacPhail's son. Here are a few things that the Baltimore media are saying about Andy. First, an article by Childs Walker, from three days ago in the Baltimore Sun: Orioles' All-Star starters all came via trades executed by Andy MacPhail - Baltimore Sun Second, an article from Steve Melewski, from August of last year. Melewski's article is older, but he does a better job than Walker, by connecting MacPhail's moves and Baltimore's success. http://www.masnsports.com/steve_melewski/2012/08/how-do-the-fans-feel-about-andy-macphail-now.html Andy is sixty years old. If you were sixty, entering the last few working years of your life, wouldn't the Twins job appeal to you? Hiring Andy would certainly be a shake-up, while not entirely a departure from the Twins "hire from within" ethos. Finally, a snippet from Dan Connolly's piece in the Baltimore Sun, from October of 2012: Former Orioles president Andy MacPhail is happy for team, 'sad I'm not part of the special season' - Baltimore Sun "MacPhail, 59, has spent much of the year traveling with his wife, Lark, and "crossing things off our bucket list." That includes trips to Nantucket, Mass., and Quebec City, where he wasn't able to visit in previous summers. He also traveled to several countries and was most impressed with Istanbul, Turkeyhttp://images.intellitxt.com/ast/adTypes/icon1.png. Now, MacPhail admits, he is getting the itch to seek gainful employment, though he has no specific plans at this point. It would be surprising if he returned to a general manager type position in which he again had to run the daily baseball operations of a club, but he'll likely be involved in the sport in some capacity. "I'm way too young to do nothing, so you have to get yourself engaged in something in some shape or form, and who knows which way that may take," MacPhail said. "I think there are a variety of things that would interest me." Jim Pohlad, pick up your phone and give ol' Andy a call, please...

Hey all you Terry Ryan fans, How about this scenario? The Pohlad family retools this offseason, releasing Gardy and Terry Ryan, while bringing back Andy MacPhail as the general manager of baseball operations, along with his choice for an on-field manager, hopefully Paul Molitor. Andy is being credited with much of the success in the Baltimore Orioles organization, although they let his contract expire after the 2011 season. Under Buck Showalter, Andy's hire, the Orioles have surged with many players that came to Baltimore via trade and signings orchestrated by Lee MacPhail's son. Here are a few things that the Baltimore media are saying about Andy. First, an article by Childs Walker, from three days ago in the Baltimore Sun: Orioles' All-Star starters all came via trades executed by Andy MacPhail - Baltimore Sun Second, an article from Steve Melewski, from August of last year. Melewski's article is older, but he does a better job than Walker, by connecting MacPhail's moves and Baltimore's success. http://www.masnsports.com/steve_melewski/2012/08/how-do-the-fans-feel-about-andy-macphail-now.html Andy is sixty years old. If you were sixty, entering the last few working years of your life, wouldn't the Twins job appeal to you? Hiring Andy would certainly be a shake-up, while not entirely a departure from the Twins "hire from within" ethos. Finally, a snippet from Dan Connolly's piece in the Baltimore Sun, from October of 2012: Former Orioles president Andy MacPhail is happy for team, 'sad I'm not part of the special season' - Baltimore Sun "MacPhail, 59, has spent much of the year traveling with his wife, Lark, and "crossing things off our bucket list." That includes trips to Nantucket, Mass., and Quebec City, where he wasn't able to visit in previous summers. He also traveled to several countries and was most impressed with Istanbul, Turkeyhttp://images.intellitxt.com/ast/adTypes/icon1.png. Now, MacPhail admits, he is getting the itch to seek gainful employment, though he has no specific plans at this point. It would be surprising if he returned to a general manager type position in which he again had to run the daily baseball operations of a club, but he'll likely be involved in the sport in some capacity. "I'm way too young to do nothing, so you have to get yourself engaged in something in some shape or form, and who knows which way that may take," MacPhail said. "I think there are a variety of things that would interest me." Jim Pohlad, pick up your phone and give ol' Andy a call, please...

Hi all, Our family trip continues. On Friday night we watched Mark Buehrle shut out the Twins at Rogers Centre. The highlight? Justin Morneau once again came and signed for my 10 year old son. I've got an old 2006 "Team Canada" Morneau jersey that always seems to bring him over for a visit. Lots of stories shared over the first base line over the years, and someday I'll blog about him. I asked if he's coming back next year, and he beamed, "I hope so." He signed a few more autographs, and then mentioned it again, "I hope to be back next year!" Then he ran to the dugout for the twin anthems. We picked the wrong game to attend, alas, as Pelfrey managed to miss the Toronto bats on Saturday. We went to the Royal Ontario Museum and looked at dinosaur bones instead... The top of the Jays order went something like 0-16 against Pelfrey. As for Friday's game, the highlight was watching the roof open... The first inning looked promising, but then Correia gave up his standard home run per nine innings pitched, managed to walk the #7 & #8 hitters to start the 4th inning, and then the #9 hitter bunted them into scoring position. Unlike Pelfrey, Correia couldn't miss Toronto's top bats. The next four batters went double, single, flyout to Dozier, and another double before Rasmus finally grounded out, Dozier to Morneau, to staunch the bleeding. Oh well, now, onto Rochester to see Worley pitch. Should be interesting...

Hi all, Our family trip continues. On Friday night we watched Mark Buehrle shut out the Twins at Rogers Centre. The highlight? Justin Morneau once again came and signed for my 10 year old son. I've got an old 2006 "Team Canada" Morneau jersey that always seems to bring him over for a visit. Lots of stories shared over the first base line over the years, and someday I'll blog about him. I asked if he's coming back next year, and he beamed, "I hope so." He signed a few more autographs, and then mentioned it again, "I hope to be back next year!" Then he ran to the dugout for the twin anthems. We picked the wrong game to attend, alas, as Pelfrey managed to miss the Toronto bats on Saturday. We went to the Royal Ontario Museum and looked at dinosaur bones instead... The top of the Jays order went something like 0-16 against Pelfrey. As for Friday's game, the highlight was watching the roof open... The first inning looked promising, but then Correia gave up his standard home run per nine innings pitched, managed to walk the #7 & #8 hitters to start the 4th inning, and then the #9 hitter bunted them into scoring position. Unlike Pelfrey, Correia couldn't miss Toronto's top bats. The next four batters went double, single, flyout to Dozier, and another double before Rasmus finally grounded out, Dozier to Morneau, to staunch the bleeding. Oh well, now, onto Rochester to see Worley pitch. Should be interesting...

Hi all, Our family trip continues. On Friday night we watched Mark Buehrle shut out the Twins at Rogers Centre. The highlight? Justin Morneau once again came and signed for my 10 year old son. I've got an old 2006 "Team Canada" Morneau jersey that always seems to bring him over for a visit. Lots of stories shared over the first base line over the years, and someday I'll blog about him. I asked if he's coming back next year, and he beamed, "I hope so." He signed a few more autographs, and then mentioned it again, "I hope to be back next year!" Then he ran to the dugout for the twin anthems. We picked the wrong game to attend, alas, as Pelfrey managed to miss the Toronto bats on Saturday. We went to the Royal Ontario Museum and looked at dinosaur bones instead... The top of the Jays order went something like 0-16 against Pelfrey. As for Friday's game, the highlight was watching the roof open... The first inning looked promising, but then Correia gave up his standard home run per nine innings pitched, managed to walk the #7 & #8 hitters to start the 4th inning, and then the #9 hitter bunted them into scoring position. Unlike Pelfrey, Correia couldn't miss Toronto's top bats. The next four batters went double, single, flyout to Dozier, and another double before Rasmus finally grounded out, Dozier to Morneau, to staunch the bleeding. Oh well, now, onto Rochester to see Worley pitch. Should be interesting...

Hi all, Our family trip continues. On Friday night we watched Mark Buehrle shut out the Twins at Rogers Centre. The highlight? Justin Morneau once again came and signed for my 10 year old son. I've got an old 2006 "Team Canada" Morneau jersey that always seems to bring him over for a visit. Lots of stories shared over the first base line over the years, and someday I'll blog about him. I asked if he's coming back next year, and he beamed, "I hope so." He signed a few more autographs, and then mentioned it again, "I hope to be back next year!" Then he ran to the dugout for the twin anthems. We picked the wrong game to attend, alas, as Pelfrey managed to miss the Toronto bats on Saturday. We went to the Royal Ontario Museum and looked at dinosaur bones instead... The top of the Jays order went something like 0-16 against Pelfrey. As for Friday's game, the highlight was watching the roof open... The first inning looked promising, but then Correia gave up his standard home run per nine innings pitched, managed to walk the #7 & #8 hitters to start the 4th inning, and then the #9 hitter bunted them into scoring position. Unlike Pelfrey, Correia couldn't miss Toronto's top bats. The next four batters went double, single, flyout to Dozier, and another double before Rasmus finally grounded out, Dozier to Morneau, to staunch the bleeding. Oh well, now, onto Rochester to see Worley pitch. Should be interesting...

Ditto on the text. Also, it's nice to have the links to the box scores.

Our family made it to the Rochester-Buffalo game, with the Buffalo Philharmonic and Fireworks to follow. The postgame festivities were rain delayed, as we were soaked by a ten minute cloudburst. No worries, the Red Wings provided plenty of fireworks early, scoring 11 runs on 15 hits, including three homers and four doubles. A few highlights: 1) Albers was awesome! Kevin Pillar's home run was a nice piece of hitting on a pitch low in the zone, and away. Pillar dropped the head of the bat down and connected. Pillar finished the game hitting .382, after going 2 for 4, which means that Albers made a quality pitch to a quality hitter. Nice matchup between two talented players. We should eventually enjoy watching them face each other again, and again, in the big show. 2) Deibinson Romero's homer was a monster moonshot. The Rochester Democrat and Chronicle obviously did not send a writer to the game, as the byline on their article reads "Staff Reports." The article offers this understatement: "Debinson Romero put the Wings up 1-0 with a solo homerun that landed just inside the left-field foul pole to lead off the top of the second inning." What the staff reports fail to mention is that the shot, while just inside the foul pole, was a cloud-seeding shot that might have brought the later rain. The Bisons have erected a Mesh Monster screen over the left field fence to keep batting practice shots from landing on the I-190 on-ramp. The Monster is a good fifty to seventy feet above the twelve foot fence measured at 325 feet at the foul pole. Romero's shot easily cleared the Mesh Monster, and probably dinged a homeward bound commuter who stayed late at work. Proving once again that hard work does not necessarily pay off, or, no good deed goes unpunished... http://www.democratandchronicle.com/article/20130703/SPORTS06/307030074/Red-Wings-rout-Bisons?nclick_check=1 3. Chris Herrmann bailed out James Beresford on a nifty backup of first base. Kevin Pillar reached first on a Beresford error. Next, the Bison's #2 hitter, Ryan Goins hit a hard shot to Doug Bernier, the Red Wings shortstop. He flipped the ball to Beresford, who threw another bullet past Chris Colabello at first. Fortunately, Herrmann was backing up the play as Goins tried to take second. Goins came into the bag standing up as Hermann whirled and threw a pea into Beresford's open glove. Bang, bang. Albers struck out Mauro Gomez, the Bison's #3 hitter, and the Red Wings were in the dugout.

Thank Goodness I married a woman who loves/tolerates baseball! Here's the agenda: July 3: AAA Rochester at Buffalo Bisons July 5: Twins at Blue Jays July 7: Pawtucket at Rochester July 10: AA East/West All-Star Game, New Britain, CT July 11: Trenton at New Britain July 12: Twins at Yankees July 13: Mets at Pirates July 15: Home. Plenty of stuff for the family to do, and two Frank Lloyd Wright tours (Buffalo, NY, and Fallingwater, PA) to keep the wife happy. I'll blog on the games, or reply to the articles.

Thank Goodness I married a woman who loves/tolerates baseball! Here's the agenda: July 3: AAA Rochester at Buffalo Bisons July 5: Twins at Blue Jays July 7: Pawtucket at Rochester July 10: AA East/West All-Star Game, New Britain, CT July 11: Trenton at New Britain July 12: Twins at Yankees July 13: Mets at Pirates July 15: Home. Plenty of stuff for the family to do, and two Frank Lloyd Wright tours (Buffalo, NY, and Fallingwater, PA) to keep the wife happy. I'll blog on the games, or reply to the articles.

Thanks for writing. Fun read.

Okay, what's the best metric for compiling offensive and defensive statistics? WAR? And if so, I understand that Baseball Reference and Fangraphs have different ways of calculating WAR. Are there other metrics that do this?

No matter what? Let's remember that this team has a ton of payroll space . If there are teams that are dumping contracts while making room for their own prospects, I'd like to see TR add a piece to the Twin's roster/puzzle. Mind you, this does NOT mean trading our own prospects/future away. I just don't think it's reasonable to say "no matter what" and restrict the General Manager's imagination and options.

Kazmir: 12 home runs in 55 innings pitched. Yum! That's two-a-game, compared to Correia's 1.5 HR/9IP.

35 years old is not over the hill, especially at 1st base (Morneau is 32, as of 5/15. He's a productive hitter, a leader in the clubhouse, and quite simply, one of the finest fielding first basemen in the league. Do you think it would be easy to replace the defensive numbers below, while finding a guy who can post a .280 career batting average, with power? The anchor of a good infield is first base. These numbers speak for themselves: 2013: 1st in putouts; 5th in assists; 2nd in double plays turned as a 1b; 2nd in total zone runs (AL, 5th in MLB); 2nd in Range Factor; 1st in Fielding Percentage as a 1b. For more info, see below: Justin Morneau Batting Statistics and History - Baseball-Reference.com

I think a 2 yr contract in the $5-7M range is a possibility. Remember, Morneau was out of baseball for nearly two years--that he is still playing is a reflection on just how good his skills are--hitting a baseball is a tremendously complicated athletic endeavor. Even the best players who go on the short term disabled list play a few games on a rehab assignment so they can get their timing down before returning to the majors. Morneau was out for NEARLY TWO YEARS! So, how is he doing? Well, he's leading the team in RBI's, hitting .288, and playing above-average defense. (see the comment about Fielder, above.) Are you sure that a minor leaguer, or a similarly-priced free agent can provide greater production? Crazy.

Morneau's power will come around. Parm has had the second half of last year, and the first half of this year to support a .300 OBP. Morneau's OBP, over the same time, is almost forty points higher. I say sign Morneau for two or three years, to support a team with veteran leadership, while other corner outfielders and 1st base prospects mature. Morneau is a superior ballplayer, he is a team leader, and the Twins can afford him. Parm has peaked. He's just not that good.

How about having an analyst dedicated to talking about the statistical side of the game in the broadcast? Looking for a new job, Parker? If so, you better work on your Roy Smalley hairdo. Actually I think this is a great idea, along with the Cubbie's "Stats Sunday" idea. Copy it, Dick. And, if you have to explain the infield fly rule, then explain it. It's your job, so make it fun.

The article reinforces some assumptions, from 30,000 feet, that a cultural shift is occurring with Brunansky, Steinbach, and Cuellar coaching. Molitor would bring a more aggressive approach to--among other things--the basepaths. Currently the Twins rank 25th out of 30 teams in stolen base attempts per game. Granted, the manager can't coach speed. The roster either gives him that option, or not. But there is something to be said for aggressive play. A manager can coach strategy. Molitor might be the sort of manager who can light the fire.

Not Diamond, or Correia. I could see Correia gone by the trade deadline, if he keeps performing as a 3rd or 4th starter should. Maybe Pelfrey--like Worley. Let's see how Walters and Deduno play out over the next few weeks. Then, bring up Gibbie and/or Albers and send one or both down. Also, can't we shelve Pelfrey if he "agrees" that, "Well.., gee whiz, the Tommy John thing isn't working... Nudge, nudge. Maybe you should shut it down and go on the 60 day DL, Pelf????" Get the hint?

The old adage is that a baseball season can be broken into three columns. All teams win one third of their games--even the lousyteams. All teams lose one third of their games--even the best teams. It is the other third that makes the difference. The series with Washington is a perfect example. Minnesota took game one on the strength of their bullpen and a hot backup catcher/dh. The Nats blew out the Twins in game two. Then, in that all-important third game, our Twinkies lost by one run as the pesky Nats poked away at the lead. A 4-1 Twins advantage slowly went "pear-shaped" from 4-2, 4-3, 4-4, into a 4-5 final. Can the prospects coming up, if they raise production at 2nd base (Rosario vs. Dozier), 3rd base (Sano vs. Escobar/Plouffe/Carroll), andcenter field (Can we already say Buxton vs. Hicks?) raise the Twins production to the point where they win two out of three? (NOTE: also posted as a response to the article "PROSPECTS ON THE MOVE" by Rick Nelson)

The old adage is that a baseball season can be broken into three columns. All teams win one third of their games--even the lousyteams. All teams lose one third of their games--even the best teams. It is the other third that makes the difference. The series with Washington is a perfect example. Minnesota took game one on the strength of their bullpen and a hot backup catcher/dh. The Nats blew out the Twins in game two. Then, in that all-important third game, our Twinkies lost by one run as the pesky Nats poked away at the lead. A 4-1 Twins advantage slowly went "pear-shaped" from 4-2, 4-3, 4-4, into a 4-5 final. Can the prospects coming up, if they raise production at 2nd base (Rosario vs. Dozier), 3rd base (Sano vs. Escobar/Plouffe/Carroll), andcenter field (Can we already say Buxton vs. Hicks?) raise the Twins production to the point where they win two out of three? (NOTE: also posted as a response to the article "PROSPECTS ON THE MOVE" by Rick Nelson)

The old adage is that a baseball season can be broken into three columns. All teams win one third of their games--even the lousy teams. All teams lose one third of their games--even the best teams. It is the other third that makes the difference. The series with Washington is a perfect example. Minnesota wins game one on the strength of their bullpen and a hot backup catcher/dh. The Nats blow out the Twins in game two. Then in that all-important third game, our Twinkies lose game three by one run, as the pesky Nats poke away at the Twins lead as a 4-1 lead slowly goes "pear-shaped" 4-1, 4-2, 4-3, 4-4, to a 5-4 final. Can the prospects coming up, if they raise production at 2nd base (Rosario vs. Dozier), 3rd base (Sano vs. Escobar/Plouffe/Carroll), and center field (Can we already say Buxton vs. Hicks?) raise the Twins production to the point where they win two out of three?

There are so many other factors to consider: the pitcher's ability to hold runners--PD (time to home plate), who's catching, the count... These are not factored into the run expectancy matrix. Like you said, we are second-guessing this because Hicks got caught. I like pushing the defense, making the Brewers and future opponents account for an aggressive running game. That's a strategic advantage too, that doesn't show up in a computer matrix.

Fein's ERA doesn't tell the whole story. His WHIP is at 1.12, tied for third on the pitching staff, and he's got 15 K's in 17 innings pitched. All the same, it would be nice to see another lefty in the pen alongside Duensing. It depends upon how the starting rotation shakes out over the balance of May. I hope we see Gibson in a MN Twins uniform by the All Star break...