Don't Feed the Greed Guy

Spot on. The Twins need to stagger free agent dollars over a period of contract years in order to ensure the proper balance of risk vs. reward. Nolasco and Hughes are Twins because Terry Ryan had no other choice than to play "Free Agent Roulette" this offseason. There's enough money on the wheel already. Wait a year, and see how Gibson, Meyer, May and others develop, or if Doumit, The Hammer, or others emerge as "sell high" trade bait over the first few months of 2014. Hopefully, the Twins don't have to press their luck next offseason, but if they have to walk back into the free agent casino next, they will still have some chips to push in. Don't spend all the chips this year.

Nice article, Nick. I appreciate how you compare/contrast the Opening Day options from 2013 to projections for 2014. You mention "that a group including Worley, Scott Diamond, Kyle Gibson, Andrew Albers, Hendriks and Alex Meyer could be left on the outside looking in." I think that Anthony Swarzak has more upside for that 5th starter spot than Pelfrey, or the list above. Terry Ryan has told Swarzak to prepare to start, and his 2013 numbers are intriguing. Swarzak was very effective in long relief last year, posting a 2.91 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP over 96 innings. Now, if the front office can keep him from channeling the spirit of recently departed Maurice "Mad Dog" Vachon over Twins Fest, he might have a decent offseason to stretch himself out. http://www.geocities.ws/mcstu64/MadDogVachon.jpg Readers might recall how he cracked some ribs last January while horsing around with teammates. Like we say in the fire hall, "horseplay is the enemy of safety!" Maybe Swarzy and Kent "T-Rex" Hrbek can resurrect the AWA someday... http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/9/96/Awaorig.jpg Until then, give Swarzy a shot in the starting rotation. Then maybe Worley, Hendricks, or Diamond can stay on the roster, while finding something out of the bullpen. Time, and Spring Training, will tell. Until then, Swarzy, stay out of the ring!

Should the Twins be interested in AJ? In a word, no. Pierzynski gets props for handling pitchers, but so many of his 2013 numbers make AJ seem like a rich man's Ryan Doumit. Is it worth anywhere near the $7.5 million he received last year to repeat the following numbers? OBP: Doumit, .314; AJ, .297 HR: Doumit, 14 (in 485 at bats, 6 at Target Field) AJ, 17 (in 529 at bats, 10 at Arlington) RAA: Doumit, -13; AJ, -11.4 WAR: Doumit, 0.6; AJ, 1.6 %CS: Doumit, 20%; AJ, 33% Sign AJ? I just don't see the upside. I'd prefer to see Terry Steinbach coach Josmil Pinto and company into a better future for Twins backstops.

You guys tossed around ten or so names for the 4th and 5th starter, behind Nolasco, Hughes, and Correia. One name you did not mention was Anthony Swarzak. Swarzak was very effective in long relief, posting a 2.91 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP over 96 innings. Any chance of seeing Swarzy in the rotation out of Spring Training?

Hughes is the free agent gamble that I'd like Terry Ryan to make. AND if the gamble pays off, how much fun would it be to see the Twins face New York in the 2015 ALCS, with a pitching rotation that sets up Hughes to pitch against the Yankees at Target Field. C'mon, a guy can dream, can't he?

Thanks to everyone who makes this site go.

Nice take, Seth. If Escobar and Florimon go north with the Twins, this leaves Beresford and Santana at Rochester. Bartlett fits nicely between those two locations, while building fan cred with the Red Wings. Also, Beresford projects at second base, not short. He played 94 games at second between New Britain and Rochester, and only four games at short--all in AA. Beresford was featured at shortstop throughout the low minors, but has been moved to second on his way up to AAA. Good move, Twins. With that said, I hope Bartlett stays in AAA--a cozy place to finish out his professional career. Then Santana can move through and push Florimon in 2015.

Some thoughts: 1. The trend in the Twins organization appears to be the development of players such as Chris Herrmann and Dan Rohlfing who bring two or three gloves with them to the ballpark. I overheard Rohlfing after a Rock Cats game. Someone asked him about whether he prefers catching, playing first base, or covering ground in the outfield. Rohlfing seemed to prefer catching for the mental engagement, but would willingly keep three gloves in his locker in order to play everyday. He then commented about Terry Ryan, stating that his "ticket to the big leagues" was being versatile. Last year, Rohlfing played 49 games in the outfield (primarily LF in New Britain--24 games, and RF in Rochester--15 games), caught 59 games (51 in New Britain & 8 in Rochester), 7 games at 1b (7 in New Britain & 1 in Rochester), and was the DH in 5 games (four times at NB and once in Rochester). Readers are likely more familiar with Chris Herrmann's work behind the plate and in the outfield. They closely mirror Rohlfing's development, without the reps at 1b, and not as many DH AB's. 2. Is it any wonder that the Twins went after catchers in the 2013 draft? Remember they picked three catchers in rounds 3, 6 and 9. Good foresight? Or just the best players available? Either way, I bet that Turner, Navaretto, and Garner (picks 3,6 & 9) will have more than one glove in their lockers too--as well as other members of the draft class who will try out "the tools of ignorance." 3. With all that said, I wonder if the Twins will be content to watch their young catchers develop in 2014, in a Pinto--Doumit--Herrmann platoon, or will they go outside of the organization to bring in Pierzynski or someone else? My guess is a one-year deal for someone off the free agent wire, but I wouldn't be surprised if Terry Steinbach coaches the Pinto platoon. 4. I echo Shane Wahl's A & B strategy, above. 2014 may still be a joke, but I'd prefer to see free agent $ spent on pitchers, while watching the youth movement take root in the field, and behind the plate. 5. Finally, one beef: I've read other posters who dismiss Pinto's All-Star status at AA because he caught only 60 games, while playing 48 games at DH. If the Twins organization wants to develop multi-position players like Pinto, Herrmann, and Rohlfing, that means taking turns. It does not necessarily mean that they are lousy catchers. It means that they are in the process of developing multiple skills.

Earlier quote by me: "I tend to enjoy and agree with your articles. Not this time. You write, 'And here's another reality we must face: Mauer's days of catching are done.' Reality? Are you sure you want to name reality as a columnist/blogger, or would you be willing to defer to a neurologist?" Nick, you were an accurate predictor of reality. I apologize. Still, It's a sad day when a player with Mauer's tools hangs up his catching gear.

Don't ever, ever forget what happens when labor and management mess up a good thing. If it happens again, remember my motto: Don't Feed the Greed.

No love for Edgar Ibarra in the top 50, Seth? Ibarra was just added to the 40-Man Roster, he pitched in the Eastern League All Star Game, and finished 2013 with an ERA under 2, while splitting time between New Britain and Rochester, and he's a lefty who has been effective against hitters from both sides of the plate. Edgar Ibarra 2013 Minor League Gamelogs & Splits - Baseball-Reference.com

Are the Saints looking for a corner outfielder? Now THAT would be fun, watching Kubel in St. Paul. It brings back memories of buying Matt Nokes a beer at Gabe's after a game. And no, he didn't want to talk about the 1987 ALCS. I concur with the above posts. Let's keep the corners open for Arcia & Rosario, et al. Best case scenario: the Hammer starts hot, gets traded by the deadline, and Rosario slides into left field.

Okay, here's a softball, Jack... A title like "Manager of Major League Administration and Baseball Research" is fascinating. Love of the game, and a background in numbers, sabermetrics, etc... So, what's your "call" story (sorry, I'm a pastor)? How does a baseball fan get started down this track? Also, did you have a favorite player/team growing up? Basically, what's your story?

Johnson for one year, and Hughes for three. Pay what the market will bear, Pohlads.

It will be interesting to see what the "cooling off period" will bring. "Fighting Sioux" seems to carry a greater level of acceptance than Washington D.C. name/logo, and Chief Wahoo's caricature. My hope would be a name/logo that the Standing Rock Sioux Tribe and the Spirit Lake Tribe can embrace. Something more honorable than "Flickertails." Arriving at that name/logo would require a level of moral deliberation that might exceed the imagination and stamina of everyone involved. What would you like to see happen with the name/logo at UND? I think we're both in agreement on what should happen to Chief Wahoo.

AJ, I appreciate your candor, and the opportunity to cheer you on through your recovery. Indeed, the difference between your left and right forearm was the scariest thing I saw on Halloween! Still, I know you can recover. Our family is cheering you on. My wife, the physical therapist, has worked with many athletes who come back to achieve great things, you will too. And my boys still remember that nice guy who talked with them outside the Rock Cats locker room. Thanks for allowing us to follow your amazing story.

I support UND's decision, and I hope that Cleveland shelves Chief Wahoo for good. But here's an interesting wrinkle. UND has graduated more Native American doctors than any other university in America. A former coach at UND, and an infrequent dinner companion (I married into his family) has great concerns that this legacy of education and empowerment might lessen if UND is no longer so closely identified with the Dakota and Ojibwe cultures of Northern Minnesota and the Dakotas. It would be tragic if the present "peace" results in fewer opportunities for American Indian students. In this case, self-determination won, sort of. The Sioux tribes of North Dakota took varying positions, and met the issue with some noted ambivalence: Tribe quiet after N.D. drops nickname | NCAA.com Other teams, such as the Seminoles, have retained logos and mascots that nearby tribes have deemed to be culturally appropriate. I, for one, would appreciate such a representation of the American Indian warrior spirit in Cleveland, or Washington D.C., but that decision-making process would be perilous. Still, the outcome could potentially enhance and heal an American cultural identity, AND an American Indian identity. Still, in the short term, the Washington D.C. Football brand name, and the image of Chief Wahoo need to go.

Jim, No, I wasn’t aware of the A’s more recent draft history.Thanks for pointing that out. I took a look, and Oakland has drafted a collegeplayer in the first round with ten of their last twelve picks, since 2002—the lasttwo years being the notable exceptions. In 2013, sixteen of their top twentypicks were college players—fourteen of twenty in 2012, but with five of the topseven picks being high schoolers. Those numbers are pretty close to the Twins,who picked fourteen of twenty college players in 2012, and sixteen of twenty in2013. Oakland’s College Draftees by year: 2011: 19 of 20; 2010; 15 of 20; 2009; 14 of 20; 2008: 16 of20; 2007: 18 of 20; 2006: 15 of 20; 2005: 13 of 20; 2004: 17 of 20; 2003: 20 of20; 2002: 20 of 20. It appears that Oakland was more rigorous in their pursuitof college ballplayers in the early 2000’s. But even in 2002, several highschool players were taken in the later rounds. Interesting take, Jim. It was fun looking more deeply intothis. Thanks for prompting me to do so. Still, I think the Twins situation, andthe way that the 2014 draft seems to stack up makes it a year for acollege-level pitcher. Thanks for the conversation.

I agree, and not one mention of WAR.

If free agency is a crap shoot, this is where I'd roll the dice. A sidebar comment: The "Don't Feed the Greed" moniker is really about management and labor reaching a mutual understanding. It's where both sides agree not to screw a good thing up, and penalize the fans--and the game--just because one side gets greedy. At some point the Twins management has to show up, and let Mauer & Company (aka: labor) know that they want to win, too. That also means showing the folks that buy $10 beers that saving payroll isn't the Pohlad's only dream. Hughes appears to be step 1. Hughes is the right kind of gamble, IMHO. Not the only gamble, but a step in the right direction. My only red flag is the innings issue. It would be nice to sign a 200+ innings eater. That may be step 2.

He may be the Andrew Albers of 2014. Both lefthanders are very similar in their pitch-to-contact approach. I only saw Dean pitch once. New Britain shut out Trenton, 2-0 on July 11. Dean pitched 7.1 innings, and gave up six hits and one walk while striking out four. What surprised me were the "loud outs." There was plenty of "Thunder" off the Trenton bats, but the ball kept landing in Rock Cats' gloves. I left the ballpark thinking, "that's the luckiest pitcher I've seen in a long time..." One game is a small example--I know, small sample size--I get it. But it just goes to show that seeing--and hearing--a baseball game is different than reading the box score. That said, I'd love to see Dean (or Albers) stick as that crafty lefty/5th starter, but I'm afraid he's a AAAA talent, at best. I suspect that's why he's ranked #43.

Thanks for the clarification/follow-up. Much appreciated.

So, a LOOGY is not a prospect? This is not to say that Ibarra is an 'A' prospect, but how about a B-/C+ at least. Also, Ibarra faced 245 batters in 47 appearances last season, which means that he faced, on average, over five batters each game. Sounds more like a setup role than a LOOGY, IMHO.