Seth Stohs

Goltz and Perkins. Then I'd say Worthington. Grant, Reardon, Chance just didn't have enough time with the org. Erickson really only was really good his first couple of seasons. Also, who is the guy in the article photo on the far left?

Bailey Ober and Griffin Jax will be able to get their young children some great presents this holiday season after MLB handed out its annual pool of money to pre-arbitration players. Image courtesy of © D. Ross Cameron-Imagn Images In the current Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA), the players and owners agreed to provide bonus money for pre-arbitration eligible players who perform well based on a calculation using a couple of different Wins Above Replacement (WAR) statistics. Players barely make the league minimum for their first three MLB seasons, if they stick in the league that long. Through the arbitration process, they can start earning some money. This system eases the frustration and inequity of that framework for young players. Major League Baseball sets aside $50 million. Specific amounts are earned for receiving Rookie of the Year, MVP, or Cy Young votes, or finishing first- or second-team All-MLB. For those award allocations, a player can only receive one bonus each year, whichever is higher. The remainder of the award pool is spread out between the top pre-arbitration players in baseball, based on the blended WAR metric negotiated by the two sides. A year ago, ten players earned a bonus of at least $1 million. This year, eight players received a seven-digit bonus led by Royals' shortstop Bobby Witt at $3,077,595. I'm sure it's no surprise to see that Pirates starting pitcher Paul Skenes and Orioles shortstop Gunnar Henderson earned more than two million dollar bonuses. The others over $1 million are Brewers catcher William Contreras, Royals lefty Cole Ragans, Red Sox outfielder Jarren Duran, Padres outfielder Jackson Merrill, and Yankees starting pitcher Luis Gil. Just shy of $1 million were Orioles outfielder Colton Cowser and Brewers outfielder Jackson Chourio. This year, a total of 101 players earned a bonus through this program. Twenty-three players earned at least $500,000. None of the Twins players reached that level, but several 2024 Minnesota Twins earned a significant bonus. Here are the Twins players who received bonuses (and what their 2024 salary was): Bailey Ober - $381,085 (2024 salary: $761,850) Griffin Jax - $352,852 (2024 salary: $761,750) Joe Ryan - $331,054 (2024 salary: $758,850) Matt Wallner* - $256,296 (2024 salary: $745,550) Simeon Woods Richardson* - $243,471 (2024 salary: N/A, but not much over the league minimum of $740,000) *2024 salary shows a full season. These players would have been paid a prorated amount based on their days in the big leagues. Here are some other bonuses handed out that you might be interested in: Former Twins or Twins farmhands: Yankees RHP Luis Gil ($1,098,628), A's DH Brent Rooker ($687,804), Mariners 1B/OF Luke Raley ($312,989). Players from Minnesota: Cubs 1B Michael Busch ($325,723), Nationals RHP Jake Irvin ($239,663). Bonuses are paid by the MLB team who then gets reimbursed by MLB from that $50 million pool. Each of the 30 teams paid equally into the pool. Congratulations to all of these recipients on their well-deserved bonuses. View full article

Twins have also signed RHP Darren McCaughan. MLB time in 3 of the past 4 seasons. Most time in 2024, but not good numbers. Like most MILB signings, he's signed for the Saints and for depth if a lot of things go wrong.

I LOVE this signing! Obviously him getting back to 100% would be amazing, but on an MILB deal, it's fantastic. He's young, and if starting doesn't work, could always try the bullpen too.

This weekend, executives from all big-league teams, minor-league teams, independent leagues, job hunters and fans will head to Dallas for the annual Winter Meetings. On Wednesday afternoon, the Rule 5 draft will be held. Could the Twins make a pick in the MLB phase? Image courtesy of © Joe Camporeale-Imagn Images The Minnesota Twins have not made a Rule 5 selection since the Dec. 2017 draft. Could this be the year that they choose to select a player again? And if so, who are a few names to know? Whom could the Twins consider taking? To make a pick in the Rule 5 draft, the team must have room on their 40-man roster. The Twins are currently at 38 players on their roster, so theoretically, they could make two picks in the MLB Rule 5 draft. They won’t, but it isn’t the worst thing to do. After the shortened 2020 season that included no minor-league season, the Twins lost Akil Baddoo to the Tigers and Tyler Wells to the Orioles. Wells was the Orioles' second pick of that Rule 5 draft. He made the team, pitched out of the bullpen that year, and has been a solid contributor in a variety of roles since then. In addition, the team must pay $100,000 to the team from whom the player was selected. If the Twins’ payroll is going to be similar to 2024, they are going to need to rely on several league-minimum players. In the big picture, it’s a pretty inexpensive way to fill one of 26 roster spots with an intriguingly talented player. However, the team has to keep the player on their big-league roster for the entire season. He cannot be optioned. If the Twins were to make a pick and wanted to send the player down to the minors, they would have to put him on waivers and offer him back to the original team for $50,000. If those things happen, the original team could just let him stay with the Twins, but more likely, they would want to receive a player in a trade for the Twins to keep their player. Because the player needs to remain on the roster or be lost, players selected need to be able to contribute something to the big-league club from Day 1. That’s why a huge percentage of players selected are pitchers. On a roster that includes 13 pitchers, it is also easiest to hide a pitcher in the back of the bullpen and limit their usage to low-leverage situations unless (or until) the player earns more high-leverage opportunities. The Twins took Tyler Kinley with their 2017 Rule 5 pick. He pitched in four games for them before being sent back to the Marlins. In 2016, they selected Miguel Diaz from the Brewers and traded him to the Padres for fellow Rule 5 pick Justin Haley. Haley pitched in 10 games for the Twins. Before the end of June, he was returned to the Red Sox. In 2014, they selected J.R. Graham. He spent the entire 2015 season with the Twins and pitched in 39 games. After one appearance in 2016, he was released. These are the typical Rule 5 draft picks, including relatively typical results. In 2012, the Twins selected Ryan Pressly from the Red Sox. He made the Opening Day roster and stuck around a long time. Pressly is a great example of a guy who needed an opportunity, got that opportunity, took advantage of it, and really thrived. He spent parts of six seasons with the Twins and was traded at the deadline in 2018 to the Astros. He’s become an All-Star, a World Series champion, and made a little bit of money as one of the best relievers in the game over the past seven or eight seasons. Where the team is on a winning and spending cycle is also a factor. While the Twins ended the season terribly and fell from second to fourth place in the AL Central, this team does have the talent to compete with Cleveland, Kansas City, and Detroit, even without massive changes. They do not need to do a complete rebuild. So, they may not want to play with a 25-man roster, making it more important that if they do select someone, it’s someone who will be counted on for some role. On the other hand, their combination of existing commitments and ownership-imposed payroll constraints make it a good time to find such a fringe contributor on the cheap. With all of that in mind, I think the Twins could make a Rule 5 pick this year. Before getting to my top five names to watch, though, let’s take a quick look at what positions the Twins could look for in the Rule 5. Catcher: The Twins have relied on Ryan Jeffers and Christian Vázquez to remain on the field the last two years. Vázquez is certainly a trade candidate, but with Jair Camargo on the 40-man roster and Patrick Winkel in Triple-A, they don’t need a catcher. In fact, they left catcher Ricardo Olivar unprotected, and he is often mentioned as a player who could be selected by another team. Outfield: As of right now, the lineup would include Trevor Larnach in left, Byron Buxton in center, and Matt Wallner in right field. Willi Castro can play in left and center. Austin Martin can play both of those positions as well. Wallner and Larnach are pretty interchangeable in the outfield. Emmanuel Rodriguez is on the 40-man roster and reached Triple-A in 2024. Infield: As of right now, the lineup would likely include Royce Lewis at third base, Carlos Correa at shortstop, and Brooks Lee or Edouard Julien at second base. José Miranda can play both corner spots. Castro can play those three spots as well. The Keirsey/Helman Effect: DaShawn Keirsey provides all the skills that a team could look for in a Rule 5 pick. He can play three outfield positions well, including center field. He can run. He can steal bases. He has a strong, accurate arm. And, he has shown that he can hit in Triple-A the last couple of years. Michael Helman can play all three outfield positions and three infield positions (2B, 3B, SS), and has a lot of innings at each over his professional career. He can run. He can steal bases. He has a good arm. And, he has shown that he can hit in Triple-A the past few years, when healthy. If the team is looking to add a question mark (or lottery ticket) with that skill set, why not just go with the guy you know, the guy who has earned it? In addition, those two players can be optioned when the starters are healthy, unlike a Rule 5 pick. First Base: OK, now there could possibly be a fit at first base. Carlos Santana had a really nice 2024 season, but he is a free agent again this offseason. The Twins could bring him back, probably on a $5-6 million, one-year deal—but then again, can they? Even if they can free up that much money in the budget, will they be able to spend it on this particular need? Alex Kirilloff’s retirement announcement last month was certainly surprising, at least until hearing the specifics of his back issues and the excruciating pain he must have. Yunior Severino was removed from the Twins 40-man roster after not getting called up at all in 2024. They brought him back on a minor-league deal, but clearly, they would want to go another direction. First base, however, is a position that needs to provide at least some offense, because there typically isn’t a lot of defensive flexibility. I’ll mention two first basemen that I wouldn’t mind the Twins selecting. Starting Pitching: Pablo Lopez is a near-ace. Bailey Ober has put himself in mid-rotation starter range, as has Joe Ryan, although he will be coming back from injury after missing the final eight weeks of the season. Simeon Woods Richardson had a nice rookie season, likely outperforming any of our expectations. David Festa and Zebby Matthews got their feet wet in the big leagues the last two months and showed they could be big-league starters. Brent Headrick missed much of last season but has a starter’s pitch mix and length, and he’s left-handed. Recently, the Twins added starters Marco Raya and Travis Adams to their 40-man roster. Andrew Morris, Cory Lewis, C.J. Culpepper and several other pitchers could develop and reach the big leagues as starters. In addition, it’s possible that Griffin Jax could be moved to the rotation. I don't see a need to add another arm to this mix, at least one that will have no track record and no roster flexibility. Bullpen: The Twins' bullpen is pretty well set going into the offseason, at least in terms of players with contracts. Jhoan Durán and Jax were offered arbitration. Brock Stewart, Justin Topa and Michael Tonkin reached agreements with the Twins. Jorge Alcalá’s 2025 option was picked up by the Twins. In addition, Cole Sands took a huge step forward, and I’m a big believer in Ronny Henriquez. In my mind, Louie Varland moving to the bullpen could be a huge positive for the Twins. They also have re-signed Scott Blewett on a minor-league deal, and Jovani Morán should be able to return from Tommy John surgery at some point during the season. Any of the starters could help out in the bullpen if needed. However, the Twins currently have just Kody Funderburk and Headrick as left-handed pitchers. Pitching: Starter or Reliever, if the Twins and their professional scouting department believe that an available pitcher has a chance to be an MLB regular, a long reliever, or potentially a late-game reliever, I would have no problem with them adding a pitcher. I’ve got a handful that fit some of the characteristics I would look for, and I’ll share them with you, as well. View full article

No... just no. I don't even get why this is a topic. I mean, beyond the "because they should take calls on everyone" stuff, there is no reason to deal them. If overwhelmed, sure, but these two have three more years of team control. And they're both legit starters, with Pablo. That's a pretty good start.

Following the Twins epic collapse in the final six weeks of the 2024 season, several coaches were relieved of their duties. On Thursday, the Twins announced three new additions to their big-league coaching staff. Image courtesy of Ed Bailey, Wichita Wind Surge At the conclusion of the Twins regular season, the Twins announced that hitting coaches David Popkins, Rudy Hernandez, and Derek Shomon, as well as assistant bench coach Tony Diaz, would not be returning for the 2025 season. About a month ago, we learned that the Twins had hired Matt Borgschulte from the Orioles as their hitting coach. On Thursday, we learned that he will be joined by Trevor Amicone and Rayden Sierra as hitting coaches. In addition, Ramon Borrego has been named the team's first base coach and infield coach. Hank Conger, who was the team's first base coach, has been moved up to assistant bench coach. Trevor Amicone is the one coach who is completely new to the organization. He has spent the past two seasons as the hitting coach for the Yankees Triple-A club, the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Rail Roaders. The Utah native played ball at Weber State University. After his playing days, he joined the staff of Dixie State University (now Utah Tech). He joined the Yankees organization in 2020. Rayden Sierra joined the Twins organization in 2021. He was a hitting coach for Fort Myers for parts of three seasons, and was moved up to an assistant hitting coordinator under Bryce Berg and Ryan Smith in 2024. He was born in Boca Chica, in the Dominican Republic, which is where the Twins DSL academy is located. He played some college ball at Broward College and Cumberland University before joining the college coaching ranks in 2020. He began coaching at Florida SouthWestern State College in Ft. Myers before joining the Twins organization. Early in the 2022 season, Sierra helped me interview Emmanuel Rodriguez in a "Three Questions With" segment: Ramon Borrego has been in the Twins organization for a long time. The 46-year-old from Maracay, Venezuela, joined the Minnesota Twins as a player in 1996 and played seven seasons in the organization, reaching Triple-A Edmonton in 2002. Like many players in the Twins organization, Borrego was a versatile utility option. He played primarily at second base, but he also got significant time at third base, shortstop and left field. He hit a little bit in the lower minor-league levels, but as he moved up, his batting average and on-base percentage moved down. data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAPABAP///wAAACH5BAEKAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAICRAEAOw== He has been a coach or manager in the Twins organization the past 21 seasons. He began by coaching at the Twins Venezuelan Academy in 2004. When the Twins moved out of Venezuela, Borrego joined the Dominican Summer League coaching staff in 2009. He managed the GCL Twins for seven seasons, starting in 2011. In 2018, he managed the Fort Myers Miracle. He has been the Twins Double-A manager since 2019 when the team was in Pensacola, and in Wichita since 2021. He was also the third base coach for Team Venezuela in the 2023 World Baseball Classic. Borrego joins the team as their first base and infield coach. He is very well respected by seemingly all of the players he has managed. He knows the game very well including the minute details that a manager needs to notice. Simeon Woods Richardson, who pitched for Borrego briefly in 2021 and also in 2022, said, "he’s a great guy. He loves to win, brings a light fun energy to the field every day, but also expects a lot out of his players." Fellow Venezuelan and one of the Twins top prospects Emmanuel Rodriguez said, "For me, Ramon Borrego is one of the best managers I have been able to (play for) in my professional career." He continued by pointing out that Borrego gives his players a lot of confidence and belief that they are the best at what they do. Rodriguez played for Borrego during the 2024 season. Side note, asked about his wrist, Rodriguez said, "I'm better now." Recently added to the Twins 40-man roster, Travis Adams, who pitched for Borrego in 2023 and 2024, said, "He was a great manager down in Double-A, and I think he can help out the big-league team. It's a well-deserved promotion." Lefty Jaylen Nowlin, who pitched in Wichita parts of the past two seasons, said of Borrego, "Ramon was a manager that really enjoys the game and all he wanted to see is his players compete no matter the result." Kody Funderburk pitched for Borrego at the end of the 2021 season, all of 2022, and the start of 2023. He said, "I would just say that Ramon was one of my favorite managers during my time through the minor leagues. As a manger he had a way to get guys to want to win each and every game. He’s also an extremely hard worker as I’ve seen him work regularly with the infielders in their daily prep everyday. I’m excited for him and this opportunity." Alex Isola spent 2022 and 2023 in Wichita, and returned late in the 2024 season briefly. "Ramon is one of the hardest working coaches in the organization and is there for players. He’s deserves this." Former Twins outfielder Mark Contreras played for Borrego in Fort Myers in 2018, in Pensacola in 2019, and then in Wichita in 2021. "First off, (Borrego) is just an all around Great Human Being. Thus far in my career, he has been a manager I’ve had that truly puts caring for his players at the forefront of his priorities. He is very passionate and knowledgeable about the game and really wants to win. Not only does he care about winning, but he cares about the development of his players leading to the wins on the field. He can only do so much with preparation, but he holds every one of his players accountable, to show up, get the necessary work in they need and what he suggests they do, and prepare for 100% effort everyday because you know he will bring the energy and hopes you match his 100%. Congratulations to him because he is very deserving of this promotion to the big leagues." (Check back for more thoughts on Ramon Borrego's promotion to the big-league coaching staff.) So here is a quick glance at the 2025 Minnesota Twins coaching staff, led by Manager Rocco Baldelli: Jayce Tingler - Bench Coach Hank Conger - Assistant Bench Coach/Catching Coach Matt Borgschulte - Hitting Coach Trevor Amicone - Assistant Hitting Coach Rayden Sierra - Hitting Coach Pete Maki - Pitching Coach Luis Ramirez - Assistant Pitching Coach Colby Suggs - Bullpen Coach Tommy Watkins - Third Base Coach/Outfield Coach Ramon Borrego - First Base Coach/Infield Coach Nate Dammann - Quality Control Coach View full article

Plus, Lawrence Butler and Jaylen Nowlin are high school teammates who still hangout all offseason (with Michael Harris and Marquis Grissom, Jr too).

My thinking is that with their depth and youth around the field, I can't see him getting into 158 games and over 600 plate appearances again. In fact, I'd predict half that number of plate appearances in 2025. So yes, he earned the $6 million based on his playing time in 2024, but the front office has to be realistic about what his playing time would ideally be in 2025... in my opinion.

Friday is another one of those important dates in an offseason baseball calendar. It is the date that teams need to determine if they are going to offer their arbitration-eligible players a contract for 2025. (Article will be updated if and when any news breaks throughout the day. If you see reports of agreements, leave a comment.) Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images Friday night is the deadline for offering a 2025 contract to players eligible for arbitration. The Minnesota Twins currently have 11 players who are arbitration-eligible. This article will be a quick summary of the 11 players, and ultimately the questions for each player will be: Tender (a contract) - Means that the two sides (player and team) will present each other with numbers, and if they can’t come to terms by sometime in January or February, they will make their cases in front of a group of three arbiters. What that person decides is what that player will make. In between, the two sides can continue to negotiate. Often that means an agreement around the midpoint. Sometimes they work out long-term deals. Non-Tender - Means that the Twins are not offering the player a major-league contract for 2025 and he becomes a free agent. The Twins have one less player on their 40-man roster. Reach an Agreement - Often, the teams are close enough to agree on a 2025 contract before needing to exchange numbers. We have already seen a couple of players from other organizations avoid arbitration by reaching an agreement. Throughout the day, there will be reports of players and teams that have agreed to terms. After the deadline, teams will send out a press release summarizing their day. These players were tendered a contract. These players were not tendered 2025 contracts, etc. Players without enough service time to be arbitration-eligible are either offered a contract or not. If you look at yesterday’s article by Cody Christie in which he mentioned four players who could be non-tendered, two of them are not eligible for arbitration yet. (Side Note: I will be surprised, and potentially a little annoyed if either of those two players are non-tendered!) A quick note: Initially, the Twins could have had 13 arbitration-eligible players. Alex Kirilloff would have been arbitration eligible with just shy of four years of service time. Instead, he abruptly retired last month. Also, the Twins picked up the $1.5 million club option that they had on him. Had they declined it, he would have been arbitration eligible. UPDATE (5:21 pm): To see the Twins decisions, scroll to the bottom. Willi Castro MLB Trade Rumor Projection: $6.2 million. bWAR: 1.6, fWAR: 3.1. Potential Fit for 2025 Twins? Castro was an All-Star in 2024, a replacement added when Jose Altuve opted out of the game. In 96 games before the All Star break, he hit .266/.352/.422 (.774) with 22 doubles, five triples, and seven homers. After the All Star break, he hit like Willi Castro, .219/.298/.329 (.627) with nine doubles and five homers. That said, Castro’s ability to play solid defense at two outfield positions and three infield positions is valuable to an MLB roster. He played in 158 of 162 Twins games. Is the money right? If you look at his overall numbers (.247 with a .717 OPS), you would be happy with your utility infielder hitting like that. But you would pay that guy about $2-3 million, not $6.2 million. What would Seth do? With an infield that potentially includes Lewis, Miranda, Julien, Correa, Lee, and an outfield that has Wallner and Larnach on either side of Buxton, with Martin, Keirsey, and Emmanuel Rodriguez getting closer, I would non-tender, unless they think they can get anything in trade for him at that cost. What Seth thinks the Twins will do? They’ll tender him a contract. What actually happens: Tendered Ryan Jeffers MLB Trade Rumor Projection: $4.7 million bWAR: 2.1, fWAR: 1.7. Potential Fit for 2025 Twins? Starting Catcher. If Christian Vazquez is still around, it can continue to be a 50-50 split. When he is hitting well, he can be a middle-of-the-lineup hitter, and if he’s going through a slump, he’s just find at the back of the lineup. Is the money right? For a guy who catches half of the time (or a little more) and can also DH at times throughout the season, the money is just fine. What would Seth do? I would call up Scott Boras and ask how possible a four-year deal is and try to make that happen. If it could be somewhere in the neighborhood of four years and $32 million with a $12 million option for year five, I’d jump all over it. If not, going year to year is safer from the Twins side. What Seth thinks the Twins will do? He’ll be tendered. No question. What actually happens: Tendered Michael Tonkin MLB Trade Rumor Projection: $1.5 million bWAR: -0.1, fWAR: 0.6. Potential Fit for 2025 Twins? As we have seen, bullpen quality and bullpen depth is very important in a long season. The last few years, the Twins have had a reliever who is out of options that they can have in the big leagues, then DFA, knowing he would clear waivers, and they could call him up and down as needed. Tonkin doesn’t fit that. Look at his 2024. He pitched for Mets, then the Twins, then the Mets again, then the Yankees, and then the Twins for the final month of the season. So, can his value as a back-of-the-bullpen depth option who can eat innings in a veteran, professional manner worth the 40-man roster spot? Is the money right? The money is fine. $1.5 million for what he’s done in the big leagues the last two years isn’t excessive by any means. I mean, it’s not even double the new MLB minimum salary. What would Seth do? I’d non-tender him and try to sign him on a minor-league deal so that he can compete with the likes of Scott Blewett, Jovani Moran, and others for spot stretches in the big leagues. What Seth thinks the Twins will do? Non-Tender. What actually happens: Reached an agreement, $1 million. Justin Topa MLB Trade Rumor Projection: $1.3 million bWAR: 0.2, fWAR: 0.1. Potential Fit for 2025 Twins? Came to the Twins as part of the return for Jorge Polanco last offseason. Then he missed all but the final week of the season with knee injuries and setbacks. He ended the year in the Twins bullpen and worked 2 1/3 innings over three games. The Twins were excited about him when they acquired him a year ago after a strong, 75-game season with the Mariners in 2023. A lost season due to a knee issue shouldn’t alter that at all. Is the money right? $1.3 million is just fine. In addition, if things go well, he would have two more seasons of arbitration-eligibility before becoming a free agent. What would Seth do? Easy choice. Tender him and go into the season with him as a 7th and 8th inning option. What Seth thinks the Twins will do? Tender. What actually happens: Reached an agreement, terms not known yet. Bailey Ober MLB Trade Rumor Projection: $4.3 million bWAR: 2.9, fWAR: 2.9. Potential Fit for 2025 Twins? #2 starting pitcher behind Pablo Lopez. Potential All-Star. After three big-league seasons in which they limited his innings and pitch counts, he hit 178 2/3 innings over 31 starts last year. Is the money right? Absolutely. What would Seth do? I have read a few times this offseason that Ober could be a trade candidate. That would really, really bother me, even understanding that he could bring back a huge haul of talent. Again, instead, I would reach out to Ballangee and see if they would be interested in a four or five year deal with some option years. I’m thinking something in the neighborhood of four years and $40 million with another option year at like $20 million in 2029. What Seth thinks the Twins will do? Easy choice. Tendered. What actually happens: Tendered. Brock Stewart MLB Trade Rumor Projection: $800,000 bWAR: -0.1, fWAR: 0.1. Potential Fit for 2025 Twins? Stewart has fought arm injuries throughout his entire career, but in 2023, we got to see him as one of the most dominant relievers that we have seen over a short period of time. Coupled with Duran and Jax, they can be locked down given a late lead. Unfortunately, in 2024, he was limited to just 16 games before the injury bug caught up to him again. So it’s impossible to know what Stewart will be able to provide, but simply for the price, keep him around! Is the money right? For $40,000 over the league minimum, it’s very fair. What would Seth do? Easily tender. But, as a fan of long-term deals, I’d throw out an offer of four years and $3.8 million to him. If they have any confidence in his health coming into the 2025 season and don’t think his arm will fall off for at least three years, there’s little risk. Can be DFAd and you’re only out a million per year. For the upside here, I’m willing to take that risk. What would Stewart and Sterling Sports Management think? What Seth thinks the Twins will do? Tender. And, they’re smarter than me, so they will just go year to year. What actually happens: Reached an Agreement at $870K. Griffin Jax MLB Trade Rumor Projection: $2.6 million bWAR: 2.8, fWAR: 2.6. Potential Fit for 2025 Twins? In my mind, he would continue being one of the best relief pitchers in baseball, working the key parts of games anytime after the sixth inning. In his mind, and maybe in the mind of some with the Twins, he could be moved back to the starting rotation. It’s certainly intriguing because he is a completely different pitcher than when he posted a 6.37 ERA over 82 games in 2021. But he can’t air it out as a starter like he does as a reliever, so what does that starter look like? That said, I get it. There is a lot more money in starting pitching. Is the money right? Absolutely deserved. What would Seth do? Tender. Today is his 30th birthday which means that he won’t be a free agent until before his age-33 season, so it makes sense to go year-to-year with him. That said, because I love long-term deals and cost-certainty, I’d throw a four-year, $20 million offer to Ballangee and Jax and see if it leads to something. What Seth thinks the Twins will do? Tender. What actually happens: Tendered Joe Ryan MLB Trade Rumor Projection: $3.8 million bWAR: 2.3, fWAR: 3.1. Potential Fit for 2025 Twins? Co-#2 starters in the Twins rotation with Ober, behind Lopez. Ryan was on his way to his best season in 2024 when he was hurt in mid-August. Not to overplay it, but in my opinion, that was the biggest loss of the Twins season. Over his three years in the rotation, he’s had 10 K/9 with just 2.1 BB/9. His WHIP over 135 innings in 2024 was 0.99 which is rare for a starting pitcher. His injury wasn’t elbow related, and it really wasn’t the concerning areas of the shoulder, so hopefully an offseason will bring him rest to have him a full-go by spring training. Is the money right? Absolutely. What would Seth do? I have read a few times this offseason that Ryan could be a trade candidate. That would really, really bother me, even understanding that he could bring back a huge haul of talent. Again, instead, I would reach out to CAA Spots and see if they would be interested in a four or five year deal with some option years. I’m thinking something in the neighborhood of five years and $55 million with another option year at like $20 million in 2030. What Seth thinks the Twins will do? Tender. What actually happens: Tendered Trevor Larnach MLB Trade Rumor Projection: $2.1 million bWAR: 1.3, fWAR: 1.5. Potential Fit for 2025 Twins? Starting left fielder most games, or left field in a platoon situation. Is the money right? Certainly. Expectations were probably a little low for Larnach when the season started, and he was on the Injured List. However, when he was deemed ready, he was brought right to the Twins and placed in the middle of the lineup, and he came through. He hit .259/.338/.434 (.771) with 17 doubles and 15 home runs in 112 games. He returned to his old self at the plate. After striking out over 31% in his three previous, partial seasons, he reduced his K% to 22.3% while maintaining a 10% BB%. Definitely something to build upon. What would Seth do? Tender. I’d probably wait a year to reach out to The Bledsoe Agency about a long-term deal, but I also feel that if he has the breakout season that I think he is capable of, that long-term deal will be much, much more expensive. What Seth thinks the Twins will do? Tender. What actually happens: Tendered. Jhoan Duran MLB Trade Rumor Projection: $3.7 million bWAR: 0.2, fWAR: 1.2. Potential Fit for 2025 Twins? Closer. While 2024 was a somewhat disappointing season for Duran, his size and strength are still there. He still struck out 10.9 per nine innings. He dropped his walk rate and his home run rate. His hard hit % and exit velocity again were down too. His BABIP was .321, so there's certainly some bad luck involved. My bigger concern has to do with his velocity. That’s a weird thing to say when his average fastball was 100.5 mph and his sprinkler was 97.0 mph. Both of those numbers were over 1.3 mph slower than the previous year. His curveball was down 1.6 mph, though that doesn’t concern me. Is the money right? Yes. he’s been one of the more dominant relievers in baseball over the past three seasons. What would Seth do? Easy tender. I wouldn’t hang up the phone if some team called asking about his availability. But like others, I would only deal Duran if completely overwhelmed. What Seth thinks the Twins will do? Tender. What actually happens: Tendered. Royce Lewis MLB Trade Rumor Projection: $2.3 million bWAR: 0.7, fWAR: 1.2. Potential Fit for 2025 Twins? Starting third baseman (or second base, just decide now and let him get ready either way) and middle-of-the-order hitter. While he struggled down the stretch, we have seen plenty of moments and extended stretches of his potential and game-changing abilities. The power is legit. He has come up in some big moments and come through with big hits, including in the 2023 playoffs. Is the money right? Lewis has 2.142 service years which makes him a Super 2. In other words, assuming he remains on the roster, he will have four years of arbitration. What would Seth do? Tender, and try to get Mr. Boras to consider a long-term deal. What Seth thinks the Twins will do? Tender. What actually happens: Tendered. So, what do you think? If you were to Replace “Seth” with “Your Name” in this document, how might the article look different? If I was making the decisions (for the record, I am not), I would non-tender Willi Castro and Michael Tonkin. I’d prefer to trade Castro, but $6.2 million is just too much. I think that Tonkin is the only one that the Twins actually will non-tender. Being a fan of long-term deals, I would reach out to at least half of these players in an attempt to sign them long term. Now, that doesn’t have to happen by Friday’s deadline, but since each would be tendered, they would have months to work on that. UPDATE (5:21 pm): View full article

Unranked coming into the season, Andrew Morris has solidified himself as one of the Twins top pitching prospects going into the 2025 season. Image courtesy of Ed Bailey, Wichita Wind Surge Zebby Matthews was Twins Daily's #20 prospect coming into the 2024 season. He pitched at three minor-league levels (Cedar Rapids, Wichita, and St. Paul) before joining the Twins starting rotation in mid-August. Matthews was arguably the fastest-rising Twins prospect of 2024, and one of the highest climbers in all of affiliated baseball. However, there was another pitcher who started the season in the Kernels rotation who followed closely behind Matthews at each level. Andrew Morris started the season outside of the Twins Daily Top 20 prospect rankings, just one spot behind Matthews. Matthews was selected in the eighth round of the 2022 draft. Morris was the Twins' fourth-round pick in the same draft, out of Texas Tech. They both participated in a pre-draft college workout in mid-June that year. They both signed in Fort Myers on the same late-July day. They both made one appearance for the FCL Twins that season. Matthews made one appearance for the Mighty Mussels. Morris made an appearance for them in the playoffs. After one start in 2023, Morris went on the Injured List with some right bicep tendinitis, so he missed about six weeks before rejoining the Mussels in mid-May. At that time, Matthews was putting up video-game numbers for Fort Myers and was promoted to Cedar Rapids in late May. He spent the rest of the season with the Kernels. Morris was promoted to the Midwest League near the end of July and joined their rotation. They were both instrumental in bringing the Kernels their first Midwest League championship in over two decades. Let's jump to 2024. Both of these pitchers start the season back in Cedar Rapids. The two pitchers dominated the competition and quickly moved up. Matthews moved up on May 6th. Morris moved up on May 21st. Again, both pitchers were dominant in Double-A. Matthews was promoted to Triple-A St. Paul on Jul. 19. Morris was promoted to the Saints on Aug. 13. That's the day that Matthews was called up to the big leagues, after Joe Ryan went on the injured list. Matthews made his debuts, recorded many firsts, and experienced the ups and downs of MLB. Seeing how these two work, it just might not be too long before Andrew Morris jumps up to the big leagues and gets to experience all those things. Background Andrew Burke Morris was born in New York City on Sept. 1, 2001. He moved all over the place. Lived in Alaska for awhile. Spent his high school years in Colorado. He chose to attend Division II Colorado St. in Mesa. He was pitching fall ball games when he was still 16, since he is a year younger than his high school graduation class. After three solid years there (18-2), he transferred to Texas Tech where he went 8-2. The Twins made him their fourth-round pick in 2022. Signed him for $500,000, and I bet they remain completely thrilled to have made that selection. Some Basic Stats Morris has put up some incredible numbers in the Twins' minor leagues the past two seasons. At Fort Myers in 2023, he went 3-1 with a 2.59 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP. He moved up to Cedar Rapids and went 5-1 with a 3.28 ERA. In a combined 84 1/3 innings, he had 79 strikeouts and just 19 walks. In seven Kernels starts early this season, he went 3-1 with a 2.15 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP. In 12 games for Wichita (10 starts), he went 6-3 with a save, a 1.90 ERA, and a 1.02 WHIP. With the Saints, he made seven starts to end his season. He went 1-1 with a 3.48 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP. In 133 combined innings, he had 133 strikeouts and just 32 walks. Simply put, most years, he would run away with the Twins Minor League Pitcher of the Year award with those numbers. He spent a lot of 2024 in Matthews's shadow, and understandably so. But his performance, at three levels, didn't go unnoticed by Twins Daily writers, as he jumps up to become our sixth-ranked Twins prospect (and this writer's #4). Obviously the coaches and the front office noticed. They don't jump push players up unless they are deemed ready. Morris proved them right. The Stuff I spent far too much time staring at Morris's Statcast data from his final three starts. I had too much to do to dig deeply into all seven of his Saints starts, so I decided to check out the last three games. Why? because by then, he was approaching 120 innings pitched and had to be tiring late in the season. Right? Well, I came away from that research incredibly impressed, and here are some reasons why. The Pitches Morris primarily throws four pitches. He has a four-seam fastball, a slider, a change up and a curveball. Each pitch is unique, and there may even be a third breaking ball in there as well, which is obviously intriguing. The Fastball - His fastball averages about 94 mph, but he throws it anywhere between 92 and 97. It is a pitch that rides in on a right-handed batter, so you can see why it might be a potentially great pitch used up above the zone. The Slider - He throws his slider almost as much as he throws his fastball. In fact, in one of the three games I reviewed, he threw nine more sliders than fastballs. His slider is intriguing to me because of the variance in its velocity. Of course, it should be noted that it is possible that a few calls each game give the wrong pitch type and may not always get corrected. But in each of his games, he slider came in anywhere from 82-92 mph. The slider gives about the same amount of horizontal break away from a right-handed hitter as the fastball moves toward them. Enough to keep the ball off of an opponent's barrel. The Curveball - Morris throws from a high, over-the-top release point. He is able to generate a lot of spin, and his slow curveball drops off of the proverbial table. He only threw 9-13 of these pitches in each of the three games I dug into. The velocity ranged from 73-77 mph But it is crazy how much drop it gets. Something In Between - I mentioned earlier that there just might be a third breaking ball potentially. I saw that because, as you look at his movement charts, the slider and curveball are joined by a pitch that has its own distinct area. This chart comes from his September 12th star in Columbus. There are three pockets of breaking pitches. Obviously the slow curve gets the -54+ drop (blue), but there are two different pockets deemed "sliders." Is one a cutter? Is one a slider that he just takes a little something off of, decreases the velo a couple of ticks, and gets 10-12 more inches of drop? The clusters thee are a bit too distinct (and the velocity gap a bit too big) to think of it as one pitch he's just tweaking, I think. When you look at the relationship between movement on the pitch and velocity, some of the mystery burns off. It sure looks like he has what we'd generally call a cutter, sitting around 90 MPH and with much more lift than a slider usually has. Then, he has the true slider, which sits more like 83-85. That's exciting. If you consider them distinct, both of these pitches grade out really well. There were 196 pitchers who threw at least 80 cutters at Triple A, according to Baseball Prospectus. THey have pitch-modeling grades for that level, and Morris's cutter ranked seventh among them in PitchPro, which takes into account release point, velocity, movement, handedness, count, and location. There were a whopping 455 pitchers who threw at least 50 sliders, and Morris's ranked fourth. That suggests he could have two elite offerings packed into what we first thought was just one pitch tyoe. The Changeup - In the final three games, Morris threw his changeup 14, 17 and then 10 times. The velocity of that pitch was between 85-91. Frankly, if there is a pitch that could use some work, it might be the changeup. Typically, you'd like to see at least an 8-10 mph lower velocity than the fastball. He is generally closer to maybe 4-6 mph slower than the fastball. If he can take just a little bit of velocity off of the changeup, it might be more of a swing-and-miss pitch and really keep a hitter off-balance. However, I am also very much intrigued by this pitch. Go back to the charts above and look how much arm-side run he gets on the changeup (green dots in the Baseball Savant image, purple in the one from TruMedia). The Mix - With this four- or five-pitch mix, I think Morris has a chance to be a big-league starter. He has enough velocity. He gets the movement needed to work his fastball up in the zone. He has, apparently, a slider and a cutter, and he can really keep a hitter guessing when he throws them a low-70s curveball. The changeup is arguably the pitch he can most work on, but it already has shown a ton of potential. How to use his pitch mix to his advantage will always be the question, and something to work each game to figure out with his catchers. The Release Point - This is the other thing from looking at the Statcast numbers that excites me about the potential of Andrew Morris. In looking at Morris's release point, it shows what pitchers and pitching coaches mean when they talk about tunneling. Morris releases his pitches over the top, and his point of release is within a small range. In other words, when the ball comes out of Morris's hand, the batter can't tell from the release point if he's going to get a 97-mph fastball or an 87-mph changeup or an 89-mph cutter or a 74-mph curveball. Control & Command - In Cedar Rapids, Morris struck out 27.9% of batters faced. In Wichita, the number dropped a bit, to 25.2% and in his time in St. Paul, he struck out 19.6% of batters. That is certainly to be expected as a young player moves up and starts facing much more experienced hitters. In addition, his walk rate jumped from 4.5% in Cedar Rapids, to 5.6% in Cedar Rapids, to 8.0% in St. Paul. In Cedar Rapids, he threw 71.1% strikes. In Wichita, that number fell to 67.1% strikes. In St. Paul, it was a still solid 67.2% strikes. He clearly has very good control and doesn't hurt himself with walks. If anything, it'll be a matter of cleaning up his command a bit. Being a bit more consistent with location inside or just outside the strike zone. What to Expect in 2025? By pitching at three levels in 2024, including the highest minor-league level, Morris has put himself into consideration for a call-up at any point during the 2025 season. What the Twins do this offseason in terms of their pitching staff will be a huge factor. Will Pablo Lopez, Bailey Ober, and Joe Ryan all be back? Will the Twins trade Chris Paddack? Would they really move Griffin Jax into the rotation? Is Louie Varland going to the bullpen? Can Simeon Woods Richardson duplicate, or maybe even improve upon his 2024 rookie stats? Matthews and Brent Headrick will likely get opportunities to start. The Twins also just added Marco Raya and Travis Adams to their stable of potential starters that are already on the 40-man roster. That said, if Morris shows more improvement and starts out the season strong at Triple-A, he can force the Twins' hand a bit. And, I'm sure the Twins would love for him to make their decisions difficult! For much more Twins Daily content on Andrew Morris, click here. View full article

Maybe, but they did call up Keirsey and Helman in September, and both of them could fill utility-type roles in 2025. David Festa would have been added today, but he got called up earlier. Zebby Matthews wouldn't have to be protected until next offseason, but they didn't hold him back.

The Twins selected two players from their minor-league system to add to their 40-man roster. Right-handed pitchers Marco Raya and Travis Adams were added to the roster, protecting them from being selected in the Rule 5 draft next month. Image courtesy of Ed Bailey (Wichita photos), Seth Stohs (Olivar photo) Every year, the Minnesota Twins add some players to their 40-man roster in order to protect them from being eligible for the Rule 5 draft in December. Each and every year, we as fans panic about who was left off of the 40-man roster and therefore could be lost to another organization. This year's selections will again create both scenarios. Let's start with the positive. The Minnesota Twins selected two right-handed pitchers and added their to the 40-man roster. They added Marco Raya and Travis Adams who both ended their season with the St. Paul Saints after spending most of the season with the Double-A Wichita Wind Surge. Marco Raya was the Twins fourth-round draft pick in the Covid-shortened 2020 draft. Since then, he has missed some time with arm issues but never significant enough for surgery. And when he has pitched, he has been very good. In 24 starts for the Wind Surge this year, he went 3-4 with a 4.27 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP. In 92 2/3 innings, he had 44 walks and 99 strikeouts. When the Surge season ended, he made one more start, his Triple-A debut. In that game, he worked five innings and did not allow a run. He gave up five hits, walked none and had four strikeouts. Raya is very young. He has been treated with kid gloves, and that has him on the brink of the big leagues. He was limited each of the past two years to just 50 or 60 pitches most outings. In his 25 starts, he threw exactly 70 pitches twice. In four other starts, he surpassed 60 pitches. As he continues to mature, those numbers could increase. The Twins were cautious with Bailey Ober in the minor leagues and into the big leagues, and that strategy appears to have worked with him. Also, as the game continues to change, it's possible that they will just look for him to throw 60-70 pitches every four or five days in a newfangled way of getting through nine innings every day. The other addition is right-hander Travis Adams. He was the Twins sixth-round pick in 2021 out of Sacramento State where he was known for his pinpoint control. He spent all of 2023 in Wichita where he went 4-10 with a 5.66 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP. In 109 2/3 innings, he gave up 118 hits, 43 walks and had 97 strikeouts. He remained in Wichita in 2024. He made 19 starts and worked out of the bullpen three times. He went 5-7 with a much-improved 3.67 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. Over 108 innings, he gave up 95 hits, 28 walks and recorded 109 strikeouts. He finished the season with four games (3 starts) in St. Paul. The 24-year old went 0-2 with a 5.21 ERA. Adams numbers are fairly pedestrian, but he does fit a mold for Twins pitchers. Since the draft, he has added significant velocity. He is now hitting 97 mph fairly regularly even as a starter. He also has solid breaking pitches and a willingness to adapt and be coachable and try out new pitches. He still has very good control. He also had one really big Save during spring training this year. Who Was Left Unprotected? As mentioned, many will spend far too many hours worrying about which players will be lost in the Rule 5 draft. There are certainly a few players that should or could have a chance to be selected. It just takes one team to have interest. The first name that most people will mention is Kala'i Rosario. The Twins fifth-round pick in 2020 out of Hawaii, he has incredible light-tower power. He missed two months this season with an elbow injury but certainly held his own at Double-A Wichita. The 22-year old hit .235/.321/.405 (.726) with 19 doubles and eight homers in 67 games for the Wind Surge. He did have 91 strikeouts in 299 plate appearances, so there is plenty of swing-and-miss. He he two home runs in his two rehab games before returning to the Surge. He then returned to the Arizona Fall League and hit .291/.383/.430 (.813) with a triple and three homers for the AFL champion Salt River Rafters. He is Twins Daily's #13 Twins prospect. There was some minimal concern about losing now-23-year-old Ricardo Olivar in the Rule 5 draft a year ago after the catcher-slash-outfielder had a breakout season in Fort Myers. He spent most of the 2024 season in Cedar Rapids. In 81 games, he hit .287/.393/.473 (.867) with 17 doubles, three triples, and 11 home runs. He earned a late-season promotion to Double-A Wichita. In 19 games, he hit .224/.325/.299 (.623) with two doubles and a homer. In his second game with the Wind Surge, he went 5-for-5 with two doubles. So you won't want to look at his numbers over those final 17 games, but Olivar has offensive potential. Defensively, he is solid behind the plate. He is also a good athlete... for a catcher. Yes, he has played some left field. He catches what he gets to, and obviously has a strong arm. He isn't likely to get a lot of playing time in the outfield in the big leagues. He returned to the Twins Daily Top 20 after this season at that #20 spot. Another catcher left unprotected is Patrick Winkel. The 24-year-old was the Twins ninth-round pick in 2021 out of Connecticut. Very solid behind the plate, but he hit just .228/.380/.362 (.642) with 16 doubles and seven homers in 78 games for the Saints this year. And there is also a trio of lefties that could be lost if the right (or wrong?) team is interested. They are all a little different. First, Jovani Moran has already shown what he can do in the big leagues when he is healthy. He came off of the Twins 40-man roster a year ago about this time and we learned he had Tommy John surgery. He could be ready around Opening Day to contribute. Could a team take a shot? Christian MacLeod was the Twins fifth-round pick in 2021 out of Mississippi State. He is a starting pitcher with solid pitches all around. He doesn't throw real hard, but he had a nice return to the mound in 2024 after coming back from Tommy John surgery in 2022. He began his season with 12 starts in Cedar Rapids. He went 3-1 with a 2.77 ERA and had 58 strikeouts in 48 2/3 innings. He moved up to Wichita where he was 1-2 with a 3.72 ERA in eight games (7 starts). He had 44 strikeouts in 38 2/3 innings. He made one spot-start for the Saints and gave up four earned runs in five innings but did have five strikeouts. Overall, he had an impressive 107 strikeouts in 92 1/3 innings, but he also had 46 walks. Jaylen Nowlin was the Twins 19th round pick in 2021 out of Chipola College. The 23-year-old lefty is blessed with a mid-90s fastball. He pitched in 21 games for Double-A Wichita this year and went 5-7 with a 4.67 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. In 96 1/3 innings, he had 97 strikeouts, but he had 48 walks. He also ended the season at St. Paul where he had two innings pitched over three appearances. When he's throwing strikes and forcing contact, he had more success. In a mid-June start, he gave up just one hit over eight scoreless innings. He had just four strikeouts but walked none. He needed just 84 pitches. Many believe his future is more likely in the bullpen. Who am I missing? Did the Twins protect the right players? The right amount of players? Who else might the Twins lose in the Rule 5 draft? Or, are you not worried at all? Remember, not only would a player need to be selected by another organization, but he would need to be offered back to the Twins if he doesn't stick with that team's big-league club all season. View full article

I definitely agree with your general point that we make a huge deal about potentially losing a player since so few are taken and those that are taken rarely become stars. But... I think you'd also have to look at which position players were protected and how they're doing. Of course, another side of the conversation is that a ton of players get added way before they have to be. (Example, Zebby Matthews didn't have to be added until after the 2025 season.)

Certainly. You see that a few times a year around the league.

Here are my ratings and percentages for addition to the 40-man roster: 1.) RHP Marco Raya 100% Pretty easy call. 2.) C Ricardo Olivar 80% Dude can hit. He's solid behind the plate. Decent athlete. Very similar to Jair Camargo, without the power yet. Definitely not a catcher-slash-left fielder the way like Chris Herrmann was. If he plays OF in MLB, something went wrong on that day, but he can be out there. 3.) C Patrick Winkel 75% Gotta protect catchers, and as noted, with the likelihood that Vazquez gets dealt (I'm not ready for them to trade Jeffers!), having depth in the upper levels is huge. The Twins really love Winkel, especially behind the plate. Didn't hit a ton at St. Paul this year, but he is a capable offensive player. 4.) OF Kala'i Rosario 55% I think he will be added, but due to the swing-and-miss, the percentage drops a little closer to 50-50. But, he's got special power, and he's right-handed. He produces. 5.) LHP Jovani Moran 50% We know he's in Ft. Myers working his way back from Tommy John surgery which he had November 1, 2023. That really puts him at about 16-17 months post-surgery in spring training. He just might be ready to compete for an opening day spot. And, when healthy, and when throwing strikes, he can be devastating out of the bullpen. 6.) LHP Christian MacLeod 45% Another lefty, MacLeod returned from Tommy John surgery in 2023 and showed, especially in the second half of 2024, that he could be an intriguing prospect. Unlike Moran, Kody Funderburk, or the next guy on my list, MacLeod is a starting pitcher. He wouldn't be an opening day option, but by end of year, he could make himself a candidate for call up. 7.) LHP Jaylen Nowlin 25% Continuing the LHP them, Nowlin has started and he had come out of the bullpen. Earlier he racked up a lot of strikeouts. Not so much in 2024. But he's left handed and sits in the mid-90s. Plus, it's his turn... he played high school ball with Braves OF Michael Harris and A's OF Lawrence Butler, so maybe it's his turn to break out. 8.) RHP Travis Adams 10% While the numbers haven't always looked great, the stuff has a lot of potential. Adams has great control and he works 93-96 with the fastball. He's a starter, so he's got multiple pitches and can provided length. It's more a numbers game. I can't see the Twins adding more than 5-6 players, but I think Adams is one of a few guys who could see MLB time in 2025.

What does that have to do with Rule 5 protection?