Willihammer

Since '06 the Twins have the lowest walk rate in baseball, and its not particularly close. By your logic, that should help to place them among the elite. Instead they are 19th in ERA. Why? Becuase they hold the 3rd worst contact rate and the 5th worst strikeout rate. Low walks and high strikeouts aren't mutually exclusive. that is a strawman

But Liriano is a strikeout pitcher. The implication here seems to be that Liriano placed a misguided value in falling behind hitters, and only needed to be told, that his objective was the reverse. That is preposterous.

No, but never has the team executed so perfectly the pitch to contact theory except 2011 and 2012. As you go back through the years, you will find that there is a pretty close inverse relationship between contact % and ERA, for example. In years where they were pitching more to miss bats, the results were better. 2006 was the last year the Twins were among the elite teams in pitching (3rd in ERA), and not surprisingly, they also had the 3rd best contact rate at just 79.5 %. Pick a year, any year you like from the Gardy/Andy era and you'll find this relationship holds up: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=5&season=2006&month=0&season1=2006&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

Again there isn't a coach in the history of baseball who has taught his pitchers to fall behind hitters. I'm not sure if you think that is my counter point to the pitch to contact theory but its not. Re: Liriano, Andy and now Don Cooper evidendly, have failed to get through to him. As jimbo said, Liriano's strike throwing problems are mechanical. It isn't that Liriano places some misguided value in falling behind hitters or doesn't understand the objective of pitching. For Andy and Cooper to imply as much sounds like excuse making to me. Re: pitch to contact, if the Twins don't have the talent to "take advantage," then why do they continue to preach it? Here are some absurd statistics to show, a. how well the Twins have executed pitching to contact approach, and b. how flamboyantly it has failed them. http://i.imgur.com/CpOjq.jpg?1

Has Parmelee been so terrible in right field? I think we should at least wait till the end of the month to pronounce his outfield defense a crackpot failed experiment. Revere is significantly more valuable in CF. Span can be 4th outfielder, enter the game in RF if/when the team gets a lead, or if/when Parmelee tanks.

Are there competing approaches? Pitchers are given a goal from little league, to get strike one over. That is so obvious as to be ubiquitous. Pitch to contact is more specific than "get ahead of the hitter." It is, more like, continue to throw hittable strikes after you are ahead, in order to induce contact, rather than throwing junk and a. getting a whiff for strike 3, b. inducing weak contact/foul ball, or c. throwing a ball, and ratcheting up the pitch count. They are not the same thing.

As the name implies, the aim of pitch to contact isn't to reduce walk rate, its to induce contact. The logic being, evidently, that Liriano's success in 2006 and 2010 was due to his career high GB rates. However, in fact, Adam Peterson proves yet again, that ground ball rate scales with velocity and whiff rate. http://www.twinkietown.com/2012/9/4/3290835/the-value-of-the-extra-foot-on-a-fastball

This assumes: that the Pohlads are unwilling or unable to do both that, a buyer exists who wants Morneau and will pay 14m for him. that the Pohlads wouldn't do exactly what you say if they found a buyer, ie. save the money. JR has already indicated he thinks pitching market is "Thin." Wins are wins. They can come from good hitting, pitching, or fielding. Morneau currently holds the 14th best wOBA of 1BS in baseball (min 400 PAs). His wRC is over 100, meaning after positional adjustment, he is producing runs at a better than average clip. Know who is behind him? Former hot prospects Eric Hosmer, Justin Smoak, and Ike Davis. Teams who miss a good 1b in the middle of their lineup don't often win. Even if he is a little overpaid for his position.

Given the inflated price that prospects have gone for, one wonders why the Twins haven't even called up Hicks, who is also hot. The best thing may be for Parmelee to continue what he has been doing for his last 300 PAs (only), and bait a buyer like the Red Sox this winter. In a lost season, in September, there is little reason to start Span/Revere/Willihammer when they could be showcasing talent.

yes

This would also be good one up manship to the name Saints. Or they could call themselves the St Paul Jews, for a contrast angle

I suspect the same. Its as Posnanski said about the pressure of losing: Why make that extra throwover to first base? There's 2 outs and your starting pitcher has already put you into a 5 run hole. Why hop into that throw down to second? Your pitcher has already given him the bag.

Indeed a walk carries a lower run value than even a single, according to wOBA which values walks at something like .59 and singles at about .67. I don't know exact off hand but it is less.

The Rays have lost four 1-0 games in a one month stretch, something that hasn't been done since 1958. Does that mean Joe Maddon is a worse manager than Buck Showalter?

I worded that wrongly. What I meant is that Deduno's walk rate will continue to hold down his FIP and WAR figures but if he can continue to induce weak contact on balls in play and hold runners at a clip of maybe .7 to 1.0 LOB wins/year, his success will be sustainable.

In before the lock!

I am a believer in Revere so I would lock him up with a Span type contract before he becomes arb-eligible, whenever that is. His value is contained by his speed and that's not likely to decline for another 4-5 years min.

Is there such a thing, as a lame duck manager? TLR won a WS in his final year with the Cards. Cox led the Braves to a 91-71 record in his final year. Just sayin.

Small sample, but Craig Gentry has saved the Rangers 18 runs in just over 1000 innings with his defense alone. They may just platoon him and Murphy, and seek out a corner outfielder instead (which Hamilton really is)

FDP explained by fangraphs: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/introducing-fielding-dependent-pitching/ You can query FDP leaders by doing a search in the Pitching leaders section. Very flexible query.

Over the last three seasons, (min 450 IP), Jeremy Hellickson has accumulated 6.8 Fielding dependent wins. FDP wins are calculated based on a pitchers combined ability to limit hard contact on balls in play and strand runners ie. throw strikes from the stretch, limit the running game, etc. Hellickson's 6.8 FDP wins leads all qualified pitchers, by far. Next closest is Jared Weaver, at 5.4 FDP wins. Which brings me to Deduno, who in 10 starts has already accumulate 1.0 FDP-wins. 0.3 of which is owed to BIP-wins (ability to induce weak contact on balls in play), and 0.7 wins for stranding runners. Carry that out over 33 starts, and that is .9 wins due to Deduno's ability to induce weak contact, and 2.4 wins due to his ability to control the run game and pitch well from the stretch. An astounding 3.3 FDP per season, dwarfing Hellickson's 2.3 FDP-wins/season. Is that sustainable? It has been speculated that the key to Deduno's success, despite his walk rate, is the difficulty hitters seem to have in hitting his filthy stuff with good wood. But that appears to be a small part of it. Most of his success is in stranding runners. For comparison, the leader in LOB-wins over the last three years is Ryan Vogelson, with 2.7 LOB-wins combined (.9 / season). So I think its extremely unlikely that Deduno will continue to overcome his walk rates in the future, although I think like others that his .9 BIP-wins / season (current rate, anyway), is definitely achievable. So, add it all up, Deduno's current FIP-produced win rate (measure by WAR), is 0.7. Plus 0.9 BIP-wins, plus, say, a conservative sustainable extimate of LOB-wins at 1.0, and you have a pitcher who has a positive value of 2.6 wins total. This places him between Gavin Floyd and Matt Garza, in comparison to pitchers over the last three years, on the RA9-wins leaderboard. Not the king of FDP, but not in bad company either.

Over the last three seasons, (min 450 IP), Jeremy Hellickson has accumulated 6.8 Fielding dependent wins. FDP wins are calculated based on a pitchers combined ability to limit hard contact on balls in play and strand runners ie. throw strikes from the stretch, limit the running game, etc. Hellickson's 6.8 FDP wins leads all qualified pitchers, by far. Next closest is Jared Weaver, at 5.4 FDP wins. Which brings me to Deduno, who in 10 starts has already accumulate 1.0 FDP-wins. 0.3 of which is owed to BIP-wins (ability to induce weak contact on balls in play), and 0.7 wins for stranding runners. Carry that out over 33 starts, and that is .9 wins due to Deduno's ability to induce weak contact, and 2.4 wins due to his ability to control the run game and pitch well from the stretch. An astounding 3.3 FDP per season, dwarfing Hellickson's 2.3 FDP-wins/season. Is that sustainable? It has been speculated that the key to Deduno's success, despite his walk rate, is the difficulty hitters seem to have in hitting his filthy stuff with good wood. But that appears to be a small part of it. Most of his success is in stranding runners. For comparison, the leader in LOB-wins over the last three years is Ryan Vogelson, with 2.7 LOB-wins combined (.9 / season). So I think its extremely unlikely that Deduno will continue to overcome his walk rates in the future, although I think like others that his .9 BIP-wins / season (current rate, anyway), is definitely achievable. So, add it all up, Deduno's current FIP-produced win rate (measure by WAR), is 0.7. Plus 0.9 BIP-wins, plus, say, a conservative sustainable extimate of LOB-wins at 1.0, and you have a pitcher who has a positive value of 2.6 wins total. This places him between Gavin Floyd and Matt Garza, in comparison to pitchers over the last three years, on the RA9-wins leaderboard. Not the king of FDP, but not in bad company either.

Did the Twins place their entire roster on waivers?

It may be the organization's way of signaling to players that they aren't playing favorites, and everyone's job isn't safe, even (cough) Mauer's.