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Willihammer

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Everything posted by Willihammer

  1. Willihammer
    Pareto says an efficient market yields trades where "buyer" and "seller" are neither better or worse off after a trade. Thus, in the case where a seller is barred from exit, the buyer will be better off afterwards. Vice versa, when seller is barred from entry, he has the advantage. As such, it is not advisable to "shop" players, but rather field offers and decline discount or equivalent offers freely. Likewise, the best players to target are those being heavily shopped by others, and the worst, are those highly protected. If the Twins think "it is better to sell low a player, then let him expire (ie. walk)," then as buyers, they are stuck inside the player market. Likewise, since teams are often reluctant to shop high-upside prospects, it would be foolish to target those players. Above all, the Dodgers. With their willingnees to outspend everyone, they are a dominant buyer and drive up the price for prospects singlehandedly. What if they fail to make the playoffs? The price will only go higher, I think. And so it is these market imperfections that should also influence the Twins' FO's play this fall and at the winter meetings. It is not all about immediate or future need, when your goal is to maximize returns, ie. actualized player WAR/$, adjusted for interest and inflation (where applicable).
  2. Willihammer
    Melky can stay in the NL west or out of baseball. Certainly not with the Twins. if I wanted to see a freak show I'd go to the fair, not TF.
  3. Willihammer
    According to pitch f/x, Slama's 4 seem fastball in 2010 moved 6.7 inches of tailing action and 6.9 inches of rise. Joel Peralta had the best 4 seam fastball among relievers, and his tailed an average of 3.7 inches and rose 11.0 inches. The worst 4 seamer among relievers was owned by Tampa's Lance Cormier, his averaged 2.8 inces of tail and 8.7 rising. I am guessing that Slama's fastball movement was near the periphery of Pitch f/x's boundary where it distinguishes between two seemers, and 4 seamers (and then cutters). I would not be surprised if he was in fact throwing the 2 seamer as per the "pitch to contact." And that was the pitch good for a 25% hr/fb rate in his short time with the club. Does anyone know if Slama is allowed to throw the 4 seamer in Rochester, that is actually the pitch he's succeeding with? For comparison, PitchFX tells us that Peralta didn't throw a single 2 seamer (nor did Cormier). This would be the norm for relievers who have an eye to getting a strikeout when they come into the game.
  4. Willihammer
    Good game, boys
  5. Willihammer
    It would seem, then, that the pitchers have tuned him out more than the hitters, since most position players are performing at league average or better, where the starting pitching is dead last by far.
  6. Willihammer
    Craig Gentry: 18.2 defensive runs saved in about ~400 PA of playing time.
  7. Willihammer
    Revere Revere!
  8. Willihammer
    You know why you work for tips? Because your customers are afraid to put the whole thing in. -Triumph, the insult comic dog
  9. Willihammer
    http://www.fannation.com/truth_and_rumors/view/334779-leyland-picks-rival-as-als-top-manager This is over a week old but in case some had missed it, a note of positivity. I have to think Jim has specific games in mind where Gardy out managed him.
  10. Willihammer
    I think the weather may bail the Twins out soon: http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=0.750&noclutter=0&ID=FWS&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=32.62086868&lon=-97.15393066&label=Arlington,%20TX&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=0.750&centerx=477&centery=202&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0
  11. Willihammer
    Casey Fien has a 25% ground ball rate. He has surrendered 33 fly balls, in 22 IP and zero home runs... he has a ERA of 1.25, a FIP of 2.27, and xFIP of 4.44
  12. Willihammer
    I blame Gardy
  13. Willihammer
    Trivial fact: Dave Boswell, who fought Billy in the alley behind a Detroit bar in 1969 (leading to Martin's termination), pitched for Earl Weaver in 1971
  14. Willihammer
    Did anyone hear how far Morneau's home run went yesterday? I know Duenslinger gave up a 463 footer to Moreland which was 3rd longest ever at Arlington. Morneau's couldn't have been far behind that
  15. Willihammer
    61...............
  16. Willihammer
    I wish Revere would start sliding feet first like Mauer. He is going to break something
  17. Willihammer
    Revere pads his lead in the cumulative hussle index (inf hits + sb's). edit: also successfully-evaded rundowns. His score now stands at 60
  18. Willihammer
    Earl Weaver
  19. Willihammer
    [h=6]Rule 3.09: No Fraternizing[/h]"Players of opposing teams shall not fraternize at any time while in uniform."
  20. Willihammer
    Its pretty easy to deduce, that if the Dodgers were in on Morneau, that few if any teams are interested in him and so any trade would not involve a high upside pitching prospect as so many in this zone are wishing for.
  21. Willihammer
    Bucholz or Pedroia are welcome, not Lester. He was born in Washington but the weirdo adopted a Texas accent around the time he, Beckett, et al. went drunkard country on the BoSox. I am guissing if the Twins wouldn't even deal with Liriano's supposed (sober) mental issues, that they wouldn't be interested in Lester either.
  22. Willihammer
    Dunn and Rios are overpaid but they're having comeback years and, voila the White Sox are back in first place. It is easy to spend some one else's money but here everyone wants to save the Pohlad's money for some reason.
  23. Willihammer
    The Nats are good without him, better with him. But I guess in the race for a playoff spot you burn up your best guys first like in a game sitaution. I can see both arguments.
  24. Willihammer
    His ressurgence is explained by a 3.6% walk rate. it was known that he used some kind of supposedly localized HGH in the healing of his elbow recently. I wonder if the positive test was related to that, the HGH breaking out of the elbow and into the pee.
  25. Willihammer
    The economy suffers for the same reason the Twins are in a fix: ie. depleted farm system and stubborn old-way thinking from the front offices. There is engineering/financial/biomedical talent in the workforce but Of who is talented, some are ignored by employers in favor of experienced veterans who work on the cheap. We are in a difficult state of social evolution but no gov't agency should interrupt at this point. State Interference in hiring practice would cost temporarily a slice of economic freedom and long-term much litigation / legislation to fix when inevitably the education system starts failing to produce another generation as talented as the current one. Ask any CEO, the number one demand of struggling companies is not a change in interest rate or anything else the president might adjunctly affect, its only more talented employees. Destroy the education system and start anew. There is substantial waste caused by unions (I am a union employee at the U of MN), there is as much or more waste by administrators. The unions like to think a dollar spent on a union employee is 100% recycled and multiplied back into the economy. Its not. The administrators like to think they are earning their free lunches and support staffs. They're not. BLow it up, start over, and make the focus turning out science/math/business majors, not funding a blok of voters.
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