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Willihammer

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Everything posted by Willihammer

  1. Willihammer
    TD groupthink assumes the the opposite way. What if Morneau is terrific next year? He is certainly trending better. What if the team is in contention? What if Parmelee thrives in right field? 1B and corner outfield esp. are supposed to provide cheap power. Not slap hitters who can't even steal effectively (Span, Hicks). What if Span hits .320 and teams are more interested in him next July? I think, today, $30m would interest the Morenose familyi. Next at this time, maybe they will scoff at it.
  2. Willihammer
    Potato Head has played in 99 of the Twins 123 games this year, excluding the 15 games in May when his wrist was sore. 71 of the 99 games he played at 1B, where for his career he has posted positive defensive value. Plus his wRC+ has improved dramatically, going from 69 in 2011 to 117 this year. If Morneau continues to improve next season, the Twins won't likely offer Morneau a compelling salary afterwards esp. given Morneau's frustration with TF. However by extending Morneau today, the Twins stand to hold their only power lefthander at considerable discount through his age 37 season while assuming significant injury risk. Something like 5/30 would be very hard for Morneau to turn down at this moment, I think.
  3. Willihammer
    I object to #1 in order to protect the ability to post stark raving drunken comments at 1 a.m, forget that you ever did it over night, and then wake up the next morning to find an entire string of angry ad hominem type replies from people who you really got going. For me, those replies make the hangover severely more beawrable.
  4. Willihammer
    Yeah I don't understand it either. Then again, I don't understand hoarding or the sudden allergies to gluten but plenty of people seem to struggle with that too. Anytime you have entire swaths of the population who suffer identical afflictions, you have to accept it as a bona fide thing /thread
  5. Willihammer
    Correct me if I'm wrong but, I don't believe phobias suddenly afflict people. And so, anyone with aerophobia would not waste his time pursuing a MLB career.
  6. Willihammer
    I for one can't. In defense of the medical staff, the Twins have suffered 2 unique injuries which the staff is not likely to mistake ever again. First is Moon Shot Scott. Initial diagnosis: Flexor tendon Final diagnosis: Ulnar Collateral Ligament. Very close proximity, these two. Its easy to image Moon coming to the doctors, saying "its sore here" and pointing to his elbow just off the UCL. Maybe, maybe not, did that happen however. More investigation is needed certainly. Second is Pava no-no Mutombo. Obviously the "its hurts here" arrow pointed particularly high on the Humerus bone, very close if not exactly on the shoulder. Now if you were a doctor, and would you suspect a bruised bone or a much more common, shoulder injury? I think at 36 and following two consecutive 220+ IP seasons, the ligaments are more suspect, not the bones. In conclusion, maybe some of you expect the Twins medical staff to be Dr. House for their players. I think they have encountered a strange and unlikely string of pitcher injuries that caused mis-diagnoses which they are unlikely to repeat.
  7. Willihammer
    How do you rehab a bruised bone, rest it? Has Zorro been throwing BP for the last three months?
  8. Willihammer
    Come on he's tugging on his bill there! Pretty soon he's going to have to walk back to the dugout! Yeah, not a full 100 yard bullpen sprint, but Fat Capps is no Husein Bolt. He's a pitcher! And when you give a pitcher a flare up in the shoulder, he's gonna gain weight. I just hope those crazies in the left field bleachers don't hassle him when he gets back to action. Its going to take probably 4 or 5 saves at least to shed those dimples.
  9. Willihammer
    Bootera is the ace Booooooooooooo
  10. Willihammer
    Scholarship for Deduno!
  11. Willihammer
    Fine, preferably even to burn a lefty liike Leutge (sic) against a selective lefthander like Mauer in order to invoke a RHP. Again, either poison (Mauer or Willihammer) is potent, esp. in a late relief situation.
  12. Willihammer
    Not every situation with men on base is a game winning / 9th inning situation as referred to by artical in the OP. In the bottom of the 3rd with runners on, taking a walk can lead to a crooked inning and blow the SP out of the game. This is a strategically sounder approach to winning games and series than swinging at breaking pitches in the zone, or any balls out of the zone when the hitter's ahead in the count (and men are on base). Sure you can drive in runs via fielder's choice but its better to get more runners on first anyway if that's your goal. The only downside to this strategy is that in a handful of cases where the runner is on 2nd or third and taking a walk opens an inning ending double play - or possibly a late game situation where the game is on the line. However Willihammer is among league leaders in WPA so from an opponents standpoint, you merely pitch to whoever gives the platoon advantage as either hitter is a pretty potent poison. This of course means that a righthander would sooner pitch around Mauer when men are on base to get to Williamhammmer.
  13. Willihammer
    Runs are runs, either scored or saved. Again the echoes of the Hardy trade ring true: he was the best SS to grace the lineup in what, 20 years? Pft, gone. Even league average SS's don't grow on trees. Everyone knows that, even the Cubs. The FO needs to go, top to bottom.
  14. Willihammer
    I would argue that as far as players go, the Yankees and Twins on field conduct is pretty similar. In fact, if you factor in managers and coaches, the Yankees might be the lowest key team in the league. But hey, maybe if Gardy did a little more running-in-place a la Ron Washington, when Darin Mastroianni is trying to stretch a double into a triple, Darin'll just magically run faster. Culture trickles down from the top, right?
  15. Willihammer
    I'm sure that arguing more balls and strikes calls will really help Mauer hold that .416 OBP. In fact, look around the league at guys who argue balls and strieks and almost always they are the guys leading the league in strikeouts. Ike Davis comes to mind (there's a Minnesotan with *attitude*). Sometimes its best to keep your head down and shut up.
  16. Willihammer
    Yes, Minnesota fans just need to be more blowhardy and fratboyish. That, not having higher payrolls and better players and smarter front offices, is the real reason the Twins always lose to the Yankees.
  17. Willihammer
    This is an astute idea. The middle infield, starting pitching, and still to a degree, relief pitching is pour, and there is no immediate relief unless you accept waiver wire / Rule 5 guys who have failed the Twins during the 00s. The J.J. Hardy trade may go down as the worst in recent memory. But, there is evidence that the team is making a heavy profit, and that money is available. Who should be signed? I don't know. No one screams at me, but if a creative trade involving Span, Capps, and cash could be made for a young starting pitching several years under team control, that would go a long way to solving the Twins first problem. Their 2nd problem I would argue (after aquiring an ace) is middle infield. It is no coincidence the Orioles have managed an underdog role after picking up clockwork-guy Hardy to play SS (bank him for 7-11 defensive runs/year; ISO between .150 and .200).
  18. Willihammer
    I know how it works, I'm just not seeing where some of your numbers are coming from. BR says the Mariners opening day 2008 payroll was $117.67 million, but your spreadsheet says $95.77 million? I checked a few others that were OK, but they also don't include mid-season acquisitions. And another site has a different number for the 2008 Angels. E7: Willihammer. With that correction, the 2008 M's are the first and only team here to actually spend over 50% on payroll https://docs.google.com/open?id=0B5pIzP28qdp-S0lheDlDYXdadW8
  19. Willihammer
    I pulled salaries from BB-Ref in all cases so as to be consistent because each balance sheet splices out expenses a little differently, but capitalization and amortization guidelines are spelled out in most cases. From Pirates summarized balance sheet: Rays Balance sheet: Note H (Useful life of player contracts ("Intangible Asset") 1-6 years Angels Balance sheet: Note 2: Player contracts amortized using straight-line method over 3 years Mariners Balance sheet: p. 6 (signing bonuses), p. 8 (contracts): Rangers balance sheets: (I don't have excel at home, can't comment now, but a similar convention is used). In short, player salaries are expensed on 2 different lines in all balance sheets: Player salaries, and amortization.This is fine, but dont' claim that you're spending 50% of same year (or past year) revenues on player salaries when you're 'spending' a significant portion on amortization - esp. when A. This is very possibly not true, given the above data, and B. a significant portion of your amortization 'expense' is for players whose salaries expire pre or mid-peak of their careers. (and even more when you're enjoying a honeymoon with a new ballpark). Again, my figures (pulled from deadspin leaks and BB-Ref) are available here: https://docs.google.com/open?id=0B5pIzP28qdp-d0lLNEJLWDluUk0
  20. Willihammer
    Actually the lazy thing is to blame management for gaffes that are obvious. The correlation between payroll and wins is sacrosand. Teams don't release their financials, but we can estimate a ballteam's revenues based on previously leaked balance sheets. See deadspin series: http://deadspin.com/5615096 The attached spreadsheet uses bb-ref salary data which excludes bogus amortization player salary expense (a duplicate expense) that is expensed on the balance sheets. Teams accordingly spent an average of 36.46% of same-year revenues on player payroll. The range is large, but clearly in this sample the teams who spent more won more (see spreadsheet below). Observing this, the Twins projected revenues for Target Field during 2010 and 2011 were 234m and 309m, respectively. Thus, their payroll would have been $117m in 2010 and $154m in 2011 if the purported 50% of estimated revenues spent on payroll, was accurate. https://docs.google.com/open?id=0B5pIzP28qdp-d0lLNEJLWDluUk0
  21. Willihammer
    There are over 50 starting pitchers on the DL around baseball. Any FO that doesn't account for injury risk from pitching is thinking wishfully.
  22. Willihammer
    46 Hellicksons in the stands tonight
  23. Willihammer
    edit: 5 more Twins innings comin rubes, have faith.
  24. Willihammer
    FWIW Twins have scored 2nd most runs since all star break, behind only the Angels
  25. Willihammer
    I will say this about the 2012 Twins. I do believe that even being down 8-2 in the 4th, that they could conceivably still win this game. Couldn't say that about the injury plaqued 2011 club.
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