Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

Willihammer

Provisional Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    7,383

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Profiles

Minnesota Twins News, Rumors & Analysis

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospect Rankings

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Minnesota Twins Trade & Free Agent Rumors

Minnesota Twins Fan Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by Willihammer

  1. Willihammer
    http://i.imgur.com/SwHqdom.png
  2. Willihammer
    Sheesh, how did that happen? Again, the Twins, just one of many to miss out there.
  3. Willihammer
    There is of course the possiblity that what we heard coming from the Appel camp was the truth of it: Mark just wanted to stay at Stanford for his senior year. Even if it was Boras's counsel to decline the Pirate's offer, has Boras ever gotten burned?
  4. Willihammer
    career CERA Mauer: 4.050 Blanco: 4.320 Butera: 4.55 edit: Doumit: 4.95
  5. Willihammer
    Super two this year was 2 yrs 139 days service time. They could bring him north and keep him going till the trade deadline, then shut him down. Something like 120 days
  6. Willihammer
    They will limit him to avoid super two status also, right?
  7. Willihammer
    What is the downside?
  8. Willihammer
    Bauer reminded me of Oswalt a little bit. Not as fast, but just as flat edit: Ok looking at his velo charts he might be as fast. I don't know, maybe I'm wrong about him.
  9. Willihammer
    It is sort of dependent. The baseball prospectus guys give weight to calls based on inning, home/away, age, experience, handedness, runs allowed, and walk rate. In sum, they believe switching the call from a ball to a strike on a close pitch is worth about 0.13 runs on average. The pitchf/x guy I have reference before weighs pitcher, batter, and umpire called strike percentages against count-specific and pitch-specific league averages. it is explained in detail across his two blog posts here: This is the sum of it
  10. Willihammer
    While I'm at it. One more pretty nice frame for strike 3 in the 5th inning. Batter is Boesch, 2-2 pitch with the bases loaded. It's the 6th pitch of the at-bat, right on the line at .79 feet from center, Mauer gets the call. Walters 6th and final strikeout looking for the game. http://i.imgur.com/4aZbNH5.gif
  11. Willihammer
    Here's another one from the 4th inning, same game. 1-0 pitch to Alex Avila for strike 1. According to pitchf/x, this crissed the plate at -1.173 feet from the center of the plate. http://i.imgur.com/qs8oLj4.gif Here's the scatterplot for the game. You can see where the two pitches above stick out on either side. http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/cache/numlocation.php-pitchSel=502208&game=gid_2012_05_27_detmlb_minmlb_1&batterX=&innings=yyyyyyyyy&sp_type=1&s_type=.gif
  12. Willihammer
    Watching some baseball this winter. Here's a nice Mauer frame job from last May 27 for Strike 3. Walters pitching http://i.imgur.com/wP2UrFj.gif edit: Pitchf/x says this one was 1.211 feet from the center [TABLE=width: 64] [TD=class: xl65, width: 64, align: right][/TD] [/TABLE]
  13. Willihammer
    I can't recall anyone pitching with earrings on. I doubt any team, or umpire, allows it. What was the other rule Hernandez broke?
  14. Willihammer
    For as much as we like to complain about the Twins MI, the White Sox should have cut the cord on Beckam after the last two seasons, in my opinion. And they brought in Keppinger for 3b, that will be... interesting, at best. But, I like their bullpen and starting 5. Their lineup is spotty but everyone's is in this division. KC still doesn't have enough starting pitching to do anything, I think. What a waste of a really strong bullpen. I don't like anything Cleveland's done this offseason. Bauer did nothing for me, in what little I saw of him last year. Tigers are still topheavy, short an arm or two in the bullpen. The divisions up for grabs again, I think. edit: also, with Scherzer's wild fluctuation in velocity last year, he looks like a possible TJ-type candidate
  15. Willihammer
    Not if you're a good pitch framer, according to OP.
  16. Willihammer
    All the strike 1 and 2 calls in PAs that don't even end up strikeouts too, just getting the pitcher ahead in the count counts for a lot.
  17. Willihammer
    Interesting stuff. I remember when I played, just up through high school, pretty often an umpire would come to the benches before games and tell us "go up there ready to swing." If MLB umpires are the same way, then they want to call strikes and move the game along. They don't want to debate balls and strikes with people at the plate. Giving the ump a clear angle and sitting still, as Valle describes, gives him the best opportunity to justify and defend his strike calls, I think.
  18. Willihammer
    I think Dozier earns himself the SS job in ST. 1. Mastro CF 2. Carroll 2B 3. Mauer C 4. Willingham LF 5. Morneau 1B 6. Doumit DH 7. Plouffe 3B 8. Parmelee RF 9. Dozier SS
  19. Willihammer
    I'm just hoping Gardy can get his his horses through ST without losing anyone. It has been cruel to this team in recent years.
  20. Willihammer
    If you pull up the first link, do a Target Field overlay, you can see that there are a fair number of balls that wouldn't be gone at TF that were HRs at CBP, esp. in left field. Now pull up the 2nd link, and do a PNC overlay. Left field is not too pitcher friendly compared to PNC.
  21. Willihammer
    I don't think so Brock. The BP article has a difference of about 139 runs over 5 years, and the pitchf/x guy has the difference at only 38 runs last year. Or, about 78 runs if you scale to 162 games.
  22. Willihammer
    I don't know if this is dircted at me. I was only responding to this notion that Doumit's bat makes up for his awful catching when really, none of the evidence suggests that he and Butera are anything more than a total wash. I do think there may be something to Pavano's and Liriano's stretches of success pitching to Butera, but that's a separate point, pretty much impossible for me to backup and possibly irrelevant now that both pitchers are off the team. I don't know much about Burroughs but I am in total agreement that he should probably be the backup catcher instead of Butera or Doumit.
  23. Willihammer
    I will admit, I don't know why its taking so long for someone to mull through the actual pitchf/x data and break it down that way. Compare what is truly a strike, and how often a catcher is getting those called (or how often he's getting true balls to to go his pitchers' way). That would be much more convincing than this. What we have here is a very general observation and I don't put absolute confidence in the run values, but I accept the conclusions that the guys at the top of the scale are probably better than the guys at the bottom. And also, just from watching games. How many times do you see an umpire shift like he's going to raise his hand, and not? or call a late strike and the batter gets ticked off - more by the lateness of it and less by the actual call? It happens every game, it probably happens more than we even realize. Data like this just tells us there's a pattern to it. These things aren't totally random. And, really, over the course of 1440 innings, we're talking about less than a run per game separating the absolute best from the absolute worst. Its not like other defense, where you might, on a good day, field 4 or 5 balls. Although even there, you have something like 40 runs separating the absolute best from the worst. And to consider, catchers field 150+ balls every single game. I think its very plausible that they would have a greater impact. edit:words
  24. Willihammer
    Good guy Denard: 3 years on the trading block, eventually gets traded. Only positive things to say about his old team.
  25. Willihammer
    This is newer: Subjectively Speaking: Catcher Framing Runs, Part 1 Its probably impossible to place a value on Butera at this point. But what we can say with a high degree of confidence, I think, is that Doumit is bad, and possibly really bad. If Butera is even average, then the difference between these two overall, at least starts to approach zero and may even favor Butera.
×
×
  • Create New...