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Willihammer

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Everything posted by Willihammer

  1. Willihammer
    Right. I think if he's not seeing any strikes then the bigger problem is in the lineup construction. Maybe the best thing for the Reds offense is to put a Victor Martinez high batting average type behind Votto for protection. edit: because I didn't watch too many Reds games, I can't say with any certainty that Votto made poor decisions with runners on base. Their fans sure seem to think so. On the other hand, they still won 90 games. Maybe they could have won 3-4 more if Votto swung at more borderline pitches in borderline games but I don't know how often he had those opportunities. Then again, maybe they would have lost 3-4 more if he'd done that. The Reds finished 5th in OBP and only 12 in runs scored, despite playing in a band box. So clearly I think they didn't hit on all cylinders.
  2. Willihammer
    He did have runners in front of him though, lots of them. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/joey-votto-and-the-value-of-a-walk/ This article goes on to conclude Votto's walking with runners on base was good, based on historical weighted base-out values. But I'm not sure Votto's decisions were always best in the context of the score of the game and the context of the Reds lineup (specifically, having a lot of strikeout prone batters behind him (Phillips and Bruce)).
  3. Willihammer
    This is where my amateur skills fail me I guess. Everyone seems to love Jackson, but I don't get it. To me he's not clearly separated from the likes of Michael Gettys, Braxton Davidson or possibly even Chavis. Anyone care to explain why Jackson is thought so highly of? How much of it is a positional bonus?
  4. Willihammer
    I happened to watch the Cle-Cin ST game yesterday. The Reds roughed up Kluber in the 2nd inning, hard. Banged his pitches all over the park. They put up a 3-spot and had loaded the bases when Votto got up, with 2 outs. He got two an 0-2 count, then looked at a corveball down the middle of the plate for strike 3. I have to admit, even though it was a ST game, I would have been screaming at the TV if I were a Reds fan. Could have blown the game wide open (they still ended up winning 5-4). But, that was just one game. In the last year people have really scrutinized his approach and what it boils down to is this: 1. Votto is getting plenty of opportunities to drive in runners, 2. he is taking a lot of walks in those opportunities, 3. he generally isn't getting thrown strikes to hit in those opportunities, and 4. when you take base-out situation into consideration, Votto's walks are actually pretty valuable - ie. all his walks aren't just taking an open 1st base. Overall, from a weighted value standpoint, his production in situations with runners on base is equally as productive as neutral situations. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/joey-votto-and-the-value-of-a-walk/ http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/joey-votto-passivity-index/
  5. Willihammer
    Take that list, and correlate RBI to wRC (which takes no account of the base-out sitauation). The correlation is .96 RBI is just like OPS or wOBA or wRC. Its a (rough) measure of how good a batter is at hitting, period. The baserunners scurrying home to score are pretty incidental. edit: correlate to wRC because like RBI its additive. RBI/RBI Op's or RBI/PAs (turned into a rate basically) would compare to the rate stats (OPS, wOBA, etc).
  6. Willihammer
    Just to clarify the scout was gunning and taking notes on both May and Correia? Not just May, or not just Correia?
  7. Willihammer
    I wouldn't be so quick to cut Kubel. He has at least as much upside as Colabello or Parmelee IMO. Same for Bartlett. More upside there than Escobar or Florimon.
  8. Willihammer
    RBI isn't overrated, its incomplete. What's missing is the denominator, RBI Opportunities.
  9. Willihammer
    Chavis is also playing SS this year. Whether his glove is any good, I have no idea.
  10. Willihammer
    Anyone able to find stats on Michael Gettys? edit: Or Braxton Davidson? edit: OK for Davidson: http://beforeitsnews.com/sports/2014/03/2014-mlb-draft-10-high-school-players-on-the-rise-second-edition-2557160.html Sheesh, Michael Chavis is crushing:
  11. Willihammer
    I was pretty hopeful about the CF competition but man it has been brutal. Presley has made some ugly outs on the bases. Mastro doesn't look like the guy I remember from 2012. Hicks still looks indecisive at the plate. If it were up to me I'd give the job to Jermaine Mitchell.
  12. Willihammer
    Don't forget Jermaine Mitchell! edit: And Wilkin Ramirez! And the answer I believe is yes.
  13. Willihammer
    Gardy gave AB's to 4 different CFers today and they're still carrying Ramirez too right? That's 5 CFers. I don't think the job is Hicks' to lose, for better or worse.
  14. Willihammer
    Boras threatening to hold out till June with Drew and Morales (when they become detached from the comp picks) http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/scott-boras-clients-stephen-drew-kendrys-morales-willing-173947452--mlb.html
  15. Willihammer
    Jose Iglesias has some mysterious shin injury, expected to miss most of 2014. Tigers rumored to be pursuing Drew now http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/report-jose-iglesias-miss-significant-time-shin-injury-002837578--mlb.html
  16. Willihammer
    I'm not holding my breath on Colabello. That HR he hit off Jake Brigham on Wednesday was a 90 mph fastball inner half, but he went the other way with it because, far as I can tell, he struggles to get around. I suspect he's swinging a gigantic bat, crossing his eyes, and hopes he connects. He's still standing 5 feet off the plate too. Maybe he can be a factor against garbage opposition but he will get pwned by anyone halfway decent, with that approach.
  17. Willihammer
    I guess my qualm is with the mindset that says you try to win the game in late innings rather than putting your best team forward from the get-go. I think back to the 2010 team with Thome at DH and all the 1st inning runs we scored. We ended up with well over 100 first inning runs, it gave us a huge advantage and allowed pitchers to just groove strikes and put opposition batters in a defensive posture. As compared to recent Twins teams always digging out of a early hole, and our batters strikeout swinging at bad pitches in a desperate attempt to muster a comeback. Games are as often won and lost in the first 4-5 innings as they are in the 8th and 9th, maybe more often.
  18. Willihammer
    Oh wait, duh. Pinto in left field and Hammer to DH when facing a lefty. Double doomsday scenario averted.
  19. Willihammer
    I was on board with Gardy until I read this
  20. Willihammer
    Ok but how often would either of those outcomes actually happen and specifically, how often would there be any real cost to losing the DH for an at-bat, or needing a 3rd catcher? We are talking about potentially handicapping the lineup (when a RH DH would be preferred) and sacrificing 1/25th the roster on two redundant continengies for doomsday scenarios that almost never happen.
  21. Willihammer
    Burn! Here we are debating how much of an offensive compromise is acceptable because of the sure glove. Maybe not.
  22. Willihammer
    Pinto looks better to me. Seems to be moving around less before the pitch, setting up early and holding more still.
  23. Willihammer
    Thanks. Its hard to make sense of HS stats. Mauer hit like .600 or something in HS I think, and famously struck out just once. So .371 strikes me as not bad but not great either. Gatewood's swing does look a little rough even to me but that is something that can be coached. 500 foot power can't be coached. What is so tantalizing about him in my view is the fact that he is hitting for so much power while still looking like he has good projectibility. I think the last report I saw put him at 6' 5" 190 pounds. If he stays thin, he stands a better chance to stick at short. If he gets too big to play short, then what sort of power are we talking about then. 600 foot? He is by far the most intriguing position player at this point IMO.
  24. Willihammer
    Greinke went through 2013 after showing "inflammation" on his MRI. He got the PRP injection and obviously was fine. Kepler has been playing through "inflammation" too I believe. Obviously its still plenty early for both players to still wind up getting TJ surgery. http://www.feelinkindablue.com/2013/03/zack-greinkes-elbow-is-ok-for-now.html
  25. Willihammer
    Does anyone have batting avg/OBP/K/BB data on Gatewood so far? I can't find anything on google and don't have insider access to any of the prep sports sites.
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