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Willihammer

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Everything posted by Willihammer

  1. Willihammer
    As it happens I do have an old file from a blog idea I abandoned. The data covers the years 1996-2011. If you'll accept Runs allowed as a proxy for ERA, the average RS-RA rankings are like this: average RS ranking for LDS teams: 7.3 average RA ranking for LDS teams: 8.5 average RS ranking for LCS teams: 9.8 average RA ranking for LCS teams: 7.4 average RS ranking for WS teams: 9.4 average RA ranking for WS teams: 6.9 average RS ranking for WS winner: 9.1 average RA ranking for WS winner: 7.2 Well there you go. Finishing in the top 10 in pitching/defense would seem to be a better precursor to playoff success than finishing in the top 10 in offense.
  2. Willihammer
    To put a final point on this, I'd say if the Twins are forced to decide between a pitcher and a bat who they value equally, then roll with the strength of their system - bats. JMO
  3. Willihammer
    Uh, that's just one postseason. And the Red Sox beat a Cardinals team that I think most would agree had the better starting pitching. But the Red Sox had the highest regular season run differential. And that carried into the playoffs. Utimately, that's what matters most.
  4. Willihammer
    Look at it in the context of 25 man roster construction. A starting pitcher can't be platooned, can't come in to face a tough lefty, can't spell a RFer with a sore wrist, can't pinch hit, and can't fill in as a defensive sub. If we're lucky, maybe he can pinch run. So even if he provides 25 absolutely stellar starts per year, there are 147 games where he's completely useless. In addition to whatever lousy starts he gives that affect the loss column just as directly as the good starts affect the win column. I'd like to think the Twins aren't just throwing their 25 man rosters together willy nilly. And Terry Ryan is on record saying he wants guys who don't get hurt, don't need to be platooned, don't need off days, presumably so that Gardy can have the liberty of pulling a shaky starter after 75 pitches or having two relievers warming up in case the opposition elects to PH a dangerous Jim Thome type bench bat in the late innings. AL brand baseball, in other words. I just hope (wish?) everyone from the GM to the last guy in the bullpen is on the same page with that. edit: to your point, I'd argue that maybe you're underestimating how often starting pitchers singlehandedly lose games. The position players are the ones who have to pick them up when that happens. edit 2: Bert Blyleven. Even HoF Pitchers struggle to get to .500 when the position players don't score. Its a team game.
  5. Willihammer
    Why does the money matter so much? edit: So he's a little overpaid, bfd
  6. Willihammer
    I agree with this to a point. Good starting pitching can almost single handedly win games. But they aren't everyday players like quarterbacks so the comparison doesn't quite work. IMO, one of the biggest benefits to drafting strikeout arms is that you can fit a few square pegs into round holes on defense if you have to, in order to supplement your lineup. Fewer balls in play, so poor defense won't cost you as badly. Maybe this is the impetus for NL teams like the Cards finding great pitchers all the time. On the other hand, if you stock up on bats, you can get by playing matchups and using 13 man pitching staffs. More of an AL brand of baseball. You also need to have a manager whose able to leverage his arms and bend a few rules about bullpen roles, which may be easier said than done since players seem pretty territorial about that stuff. Either way you want to do it, that will impact your positional adjustments and therefore your determination of BPA. As another poster said, prospects don't come with BPA stamped on their forehead.
  7. Willihammer
    A.J. Reed and Casey Gillaspie win the week 8 baseball america stat roundup. http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/college-draft-prospects-stat-roundup-week-8-3/ Reed had 3 HRs (12), 3 doubles (8) against a Gator team that just won the season series against no. 1 FL state. 6'4, 240, LH hitter, 1B, batting .373/.500/.771 in 118 AB's on the year. Gillaspie had 3 HRs (8) against Indiana State. First baseman, switch hitter. He's batting .402/.507/.692 in 117 ABs. Both players are juniors
  8. Willihammer
    At what point do we think about putting Plouffe or Dozier back at SS?
  9. Willihammer
    Mauer is like the Lyoto Machida of baseball. Machida is a one time light heavyweight champ, currently ranked #4 in the world (as a middleweight). What Machida does is dance around the ring for the first 4:45 of every round dodging blows and avoiding contact. Then in the final 15 seconds he picks a spot, and takes down his opponent or sticks him with a hard kick to the body, and ends up winning the round with the judges. He repeats this for the next 2 (or 4) rounds, and wins all his fights by decision. His fights are long and unexciting, but Machida is extremely successful with this strategy. But fans disdain him becuase they want to see knockouts, not smart tactics. Likewise, fans want to see Mauer, and players in general, hit home runs. Strategy be damned. Mauer obviously doesn't do that, he takes long at bats and then walks or singles (or rolls over a soft ground ball to 2nd base). Its an equally successful approach. Just, not very entertaining.
  10. Willihammer
    Control was 2nd in starting% but 3rd according to median RA9-WAR, and tied for 3rd in median WAR with fastball. Take Cole Hamels out of the top control guys and you are left with a pretty lackluster group.
  11. Willihammer
    Piece today on fangraphs that looks at how the 5 pitcher tools translate to MLB success. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-the-best-pitching-tools-translate-to-the-majors/ Looking back at MLB.com's top 50 draft board (which is getting kinda old), they like toussaint's curve the best (70), followed by Hoffman and Holmes (65).
  12. Willihammer
    I read an interview with Joe Maddon somewhere and he outlined 5 phases a player goes through after reaching the Show, and it roughly goes like this 1. I got called up! 2. This is hard! 3. I'm doing ok! 4. I can get rich! 5. I want a ring before I retire. Drew turned 31 last month. I think, if Maddon's outline is accurate, Drew is still in phase 4. Besides all that, June 5 isn't far away. If the Twins make the best offer, and can keep there head above water until then, winning might not be such a concern anyway.
  13. Willihammer
    Bat speed... there's another thing. Why don't we have hard numbers? Anyway. Another question. How much of a bonus should a player get for having two way talent. Eg. Gordon. MLB.com ranks his FB and CB as above average, in addition to his SS skills which all grade between 40-60. Is he, overall, just a slightly above average talent? Is there star potential in any aspect of his game?
  14. Willihammer
    Are people undervaluing Nick Gordon's power projection because his brother is such a sap at the plate? I am having a hard time getting a read on him or finding stats. Has he hit many homers (of the over the fence variety) as a high schooler?
  15. Willihammer
    If the Twins draft Jackson, do you move him to the outfield immediately to stave off concussion risk or catching related decline? Or, try to keep him at C? Sounds to me like his bat is plenty good to stick in the OF.
  16. Willihammer
    http://www.baseballamerica.com/high-school/high-school-top-25-april-8/
  17. Willihammer
    There is one FA SS out there, unsigned, who probably would be an upgrade on Florimon's bat and Nunez's defense. But he would cost several million dollars and the ~45th draft pick. Maybe the Twins can do better at 45 than a Miguel Sulbaran. He has been traded twice in the past year after all. I don't know. Just an observation.
  18. Willihammer
    The Twins must like the 45th pick of this draft more than Sulbaran.
  19. Willihammer
    Settings > General Settings > Number of posts to show per page. Change to max. That helps. edit: I'd add, that every live chat free for all I've ever participated in moved hopelessly fast. Way too fast for me to keep up, while also watching the game, esp. when you have 10-20 participants or more.
  20. Willihammer
    I'm currently midway through a 7 day free trial with unblock-us. Very slick service with a really straightforward tutorial. I plan to pay the $5/mo to keep it going.
  21. Willihammer
    The only possible explanation I can think of is they don't make any money when people stand back there. Because, yeah, that was a great little spot to stroll to and watch. Not anymore.
  22. Willihammer
    An idiot would take the Twins at 20:1 odds. Betting on them at 180:1 just makes you a homer.
  23. Willihammer
    I'm encouraged too but the Twins will never see a top of the 3rd like we saw yesterday. Hit and run with Mauer shooting to the 6 hole and the SS covering? 9/10 times Mauer rolls over to the 2nd baseman for a 4-6-3 double play. Then Gomes throws to nobody at 2nd on a Colabello swinging bunt. Plouffe hits a seeing eye ground ball that scores another runner. I'm afraid this team doesn't have any karma left after this weekend. Oh well, at least they were division games.
  24. Willihammer
    Bring up Meyer
  25. Willihammer
    Might also be an example of an umpire getting the safe-out call wrong becuase he was distracted by trying to get the call on rule 7.13 right.
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