Willihammer

Yeah I would definitely wait till at least the 4th inning to buy a hot dog in game 2 of a doubleheader.

I'm watching on my microwave. The baserunners haven't stopped circling the bases since I pressed enter.

What do you call a deer with no eyes? No idear. What do you call a deer with no eyes and no legs? Still no idear. What do you call a deer with no eyes no legs and no genitals? Still no @$^@^ idear

What? No RBI on that weak grounder?

Pelfrey: First order of business - get into the stretch. Check

[TABLE] I Hughes PA OPS [/TD] 1st PA in G as SP 1207 .722 2nd PA in G as SP 1156 .788 3rd PA in G as SP 786 .849 [/TABLE] For whatever reason, batters only need to see Hughes once before they turn into Andre Ethier. Twice before they turn into David Wright. Maybe he should swap roles with Deduno? [TABLE] I Deduno PA OPS 1st PA in G as SP 293 .681 2nd PA in G as SP 283 .767 3rd PA in G as SP 218 .731 [/TABLE] Plus, Hughes has been amazing as a reliever. [TABLE] I Hughes PA BB SO OPS [TD]1st PA in G as RP 214 17 69 .501 [/TABLE]

I don't think this a flukey batted ball or SSS thing. Burton's fastball velocity has tumbled almost 2 mph over the past two years. Not good.

Well I must have missed the widespread demands to trade Burton over the past year. I can't recall a single one in fact. Burton tanking is no big deal as long as the Twins don't let it become one. Demote him, cut him, whatever. They have backups. Just don't continue to play him if he stinks.

I understand. Personally I've been following Rodon for a while but Freeland has only hit my radar in the last week or so. I just don't want to let myself be swayed by a familiarity bias. Freeland has a reputation of being a "control guy," which around here is equivalent to PTC. However I don't necessarily know if that's the case. Best case scenario, Freeland has good control and swing and miss stuff. But again, as an outsider, its frustratingly difficult to make that determination because nobody gathers, or shares, those figures. How are we supposed to judge a prospect's pitches by looking at strikeout totals? That isn't very helpful. If someone could tell us Freeland got, say, 10 swings and misses on his slider while throwing 30 of them, and Rodon got 20 while throwing 70 of them, who has the better slider? Then, factor in the looking strikes? Who has better command of the pitch? I guess we just have to trust the slow-moving industry consensus because, we don't have much choice. It would be nice to have the data to maybe identify the top 10 talents who every year, drop to the 20-30 range or lower (eg. half the Cardinals rotation). Just to punctuate my tangent... [TABLE=width: 500] [TABLE=width: 192] [TD=width: 64] [TD=width: 64]Pick #[/TD] [TD=width: 64]2013 WAR[/TD] Wainwright 29th [TD=align: right]6.2[/TD] Lynn 39th [TD=align: right]1.8[/TD] Miller 19th [TD=align: right]3.4[/TD] Westbrook 21st [TD=align: right]-0.6[/TD] Kelly 98th [TD=align: right]2.6[/TD] Wacha 19th [TD=align: right]1.7[/TD] [/TABLE] [/TD] [/TD] [TD] [/TABLE] Clearly the BPAs don't fall off the table in perfect order. Not even in the first round.

Top 10 college performances of the last week, sorted by K%: [TABLE=width: 500] [TABLE=width: 779] Name, Position, Team IP TBF H R ER BB SO K% Kyle Freeland, lhp, Evansville 8 29 4 1 0 0 15[TD=align: right]51.7% Daniel Savas, rhp, Illinois State 2 8 3 0 0 0 4[TD=align: right]50.0%[/TD] Aaron Nola, rhp, Louisiana State 7 28 4 2 2 2 13[TD=align: right]46.4%[/TD] Nick Howard, rhp/3b, Virginia 2 7 1 0 0 0 3[TD=align: right]42.9%[/TD] Chris Diaz, lhp, Miami 6 25 6 2 2 1 10[TD=align: right]40.0%[/TD] Michael Cederoth, rhp, San Diego State 1 5 1 0 0 1 2[TD=align: right]40.0%[/TD] Carlos Rodon, lhp, North Carolina State 7.2 32 6 2 1 3 12[TD=align: right]37.5%[/TD] Wyatt Strahan, rhp, Southern California 7 31 2 2 2 3 11[TD=align: right]35.5%[/TD] Jacob Lindgren, lhp, Mississippi State 3.1 15 3 1 1 2 5[TD=align: right]33.3%[/TD] Austin Davis, lhp, Cal State Bakersfield 7 28 3 0 0 2 9[TD=align: right]32.1%[/TD] [/TABLE] [/TD] [/TD] [TD] [/TABLE] (My guy AJ Reed comes in 11th at 30.3%) Freeland is definitely on a roll. But, here is a question re: Freeland vs. Rodon. According to BA's week 9 roundup, Rodon threw 134 pitches. Some percentage of these were sliders (it would be nice to know how many). In any case, he got 20 whiffs on sliders in one start. Even without knowing how many sliders Rodon threw, it stands to reason that the whiff rate is pretty excellent. And further evidence of how good that pitch is. Freeland however, is a command guy. So, how many swings and misses is he getting? On what pitches? and how many K's (and strikes) are looking? Getting some hard numbers on swing outcomes against Freeland would help compare the two on stuff.

If the Twins insist on solving this problem from within then they are going to need to get more creative. Here's a couple ideas: 1. swap Herrmann for Beresford. The Twins can't afford the roster space for a no hit bench player and don't need a 3rd catcher anyway. 2. start road games with one of the bench bats as the SS and batting somewhere 1-3. Sub in Florimon for the bottom of the 1st and PH for him again later if necessary. That way you can minimize Florimon to 1-3 PA's per road game while also having him on defense for most of the game. 3. For home games, move Dozier to SS, put Beresford at 2B. 4. Alternatively, at home, move Plouffe to SS, Mauer to 3B, and Colabello to 1B. 5. Can Pinto play 3B?

Well, BA mentioned Freeland in the same "pack" as Hoffman, Beede, Nola, Fedde, and Finnegan in their Apr 10 update. And then went on to rank him at no. 9. https://www.baseballamerica.com/college/2014-draft-update-change-at-the-top-as-pitchers-dominate/ I also need to learn more about him.

Not mine personally, no. Put it another way - the top tier is starting to take shape, and it looks like the Twins might be on the outside looking in.

Seems like the top two tiers are starting to take shape. Aiken, Kolek, Jackson, Rodon in tier 1. Hoffman, Holmes, Toussaint, Zimmer, Nola, others in tier 2. Am I wrong?

Some short-term concerns about the team: 1. how long before carrying 3 catchers bites us in the butt - ie. how many rolls of the dice can we get away with before Herrmann or Suzuki comes up in a game breaking spot? We already got away with one in Chicago with Suzuki. That was pretty lucky IMO and wouldn't count on it happening next time. 2. how long before Florimon costs us a game with the bat due to carrying 13 pitchers and 3 catchers? 3. what is a Phil Hughes? A starter or a reliever? 4. Will Hammer hit when he returns? 5. Will Arcia get more consistent? 6. Will Gardy ever pull a starter who's putting up zeroes before he coughs up the lead?

At first I thought losing Hammer and Arcia would be the start of the end, especially with this schedule. Now I don't know what to think. The starting staff is worryingly spotty. I tense up every time a ball is hit to third base or center field. But, Pinto has been a shot in the arm. Dozier and Kubel are dialed in. Mauer looks like the same old Mauer. I'm still not sold on Cola, Plouffe or Hicks to consistently put together good at-bats. Much less Florimon. They have scored 67 and allowed 64 runs. They're batting .264 w/ RISP, which isn't as high as I expected. And the bullpen isn't as bad as they've played, we all know that. Overall, I don't see a lot of signs that say "negative regression ahead." If anything, they have some arms to deal and maybe cover up some holes. Some mid-season call ups, the return of Hammer and Arcia... Shoot, I'll take the over.

I realize he's nobody's pick at 5 but I can't help wondering if Chavis is a hidden gem. http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/draft-tracker-april-11/ And then this: http://sbb.scout.com/2/1392968.html

In that respect Freeland is leading the pack- 15:1 Nola is up there too - 6.5:1 Beede- 2.8:1 Rodon- 3.3:1 Hoffman- 2.9:1 Newcomb- 2.5:1 Reed- 2.5:1

Frankly I feel like I endured too rough of a winter to waste a beautiful afternoon at Target Field. That will change in a few weeks regardless of how badly the team does, but to be honest I haven't watched a game since Saturday (on t.v.) and don't plan to watch any in the near future. The product can't even compete with a bike ride or an afternoon in the garage.

I'd like to see Hughes' decision tree. http://www.hardballtimes.com/a-decision-tree-approach-to-pitch-prediction/ It doesn't seem right that opponents can foul off a 92-93 mph fastball and then a 78-79 mph curveball. Maybe he's too predictable, or tipping his pitches?

By August the Green Line will be open. What I would do is drive up 35E into Saint Paul, stay at a hotel there, something near 7th Street. There are a lot of bars and stuff in the area so you can pre-game there. Walk up to University and take the green line into Target Field. Don't go to Bloomington there's nothing out there but chain restaurants and hotels.

Out of curiosity, does anyone go to batting practice? Is Mauer hitting moonshot after moonshot at BP like Ichiro?

BA's first half writeup. http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/weekend-preview-midseason-report-april-11-13/ I am intrigued by Reed. Lefthanded, 2 way talent. His numbers are huge on both sides of the ball. Really nice looking swing IMO [video=youtube;UF6puff06rM]

Right, just because they're hittable, doesn't mean they all turn into hits. Since Mauer isn't a home run hitter - and I maintain his lack of power is at the crux of the entire lightning rod debate - there's not much reason for him to swing. If the likely best outcome of your at-bat is a single, it makes sense to give the pitcher every opportunity to work himself into trouble I think. And Mauer does that. Especially if you get ahead 1-0 as often as he does. Mauer has had his share of flops with men on base and 2 outs but then there are games like last year in Cinci. Down 1, men on base, 9th inning. 2 strike count and Aroldis Chapman on the mound. Your choice is 100 mph fastball or 90 mph LH slider. Mauer got the slider and hit a double, and won the game for the Twins. Chapman blew his first save of the year. I think Mauer was responsible for something like 25% of AC's earned runs for all of 2013, and he did it on that swing. I don't think there's another LH hitter who could have done what he did in that spot. Maybe even including Votto. edit: OK it was 2012 and Chapman's 3rd blown save. This is why you trust stats, not your memory. ... and there was nobody on base. Nope, just a bases empty double. Hammer took Chapman deep for the game winner. http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/CIN/CIN201206240.shtml Well that's the last time I type something from memory.

Since 2010, Mauer is not even in the top 100 batters with the fewest strikes seen. But he has the 3rd lowest swings percent. He looks at a lot of hittable pitches, I don't think there's any question about that. edit: go to fangraphs, sort Z-swing%. Mauer is 6th from the bottom among qualified batters since 2010.