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Willihammer

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Everything posted by Willihammer

  1. Willihammer
    If we're comparing HoF/probable HoFers to Santana, I like the Carew comp better. 4 seasons with a BABIP over .380. I never watched the man play but I understand he was more the rabbit type, like Santana, instead of the stand and hit guy that Mauer is. edit: and yes feel free to necro that when Santana takes home the batting title this year!
  2. Willihammer
    I watched Colabello collect an RBI on every weak ground ball through May it was clear that he was on a hot streak and that it would end as soon as he stopped hitting em where they ain't. Ie. when his luck ran out. Kubel had a similar stretch where he just couldn't get out but it was plain to everyone who watched that it wasn't going to last.. I'd even wager that a lot of Escobar's hits were the result of that and if you want to go back further, the 2009 season where Mauer hit about a dozen HR's into the first row of the student section in left field. The power wasn't that prodigious, not really. But Santana made so much crisp contact and displayed such an economy with his movements - his swing and his footwork, most all the hits seemed legit. .405 isn't going to keep up but someone mentioned a ~.360 BABIP in 2013. We know BABIP tends to be stable for players year to year so I fully expect this year's to split the difference and wind up around the .380 range.
  3. Willihammer
    Actually I think you want to look just at the BIP-wins column, as that isolates out the LOB-wins. I think LOB-wins would be more heavily influenced by a pitchers ability to pitch out of the stretch (pitcher skill) and also sequencing.
  4. Willihammer
    I suspect that's the motivating factor. It seems like Gardy often started the year with a 12 man bullpen and ended the year with 13 guys who were running on fumes. I wonder if this is part of a larger plans to use bench players in stricter platoons or in more prominent roles somehow by keeping to a 12 man staff (by keeping them rested).
  5. Willihammer
    "Play to tie at home, to win on the road." There were way too many stretches under Gardy where Perk sat for 5+ games due to no save situation presenting itself. Close games, many of them. Winnable games.
  6. Willihammer
    Why not just stick Santana out there for a few weeks? He was fine. Hicks and Rosario to the minors, er-assess in a few weeks. That would obviously allow Escobar regular PT at SS and avoid having the black hole of Shafer / Robinson in the lineup.
  7. Willihammer
    http://media.giphy.com/media/TbRXNJJJbgIkE/giphy.gif
  8. Willihammer
    Same deal as the Dodgers and Ethier. Even if they eat most of the salary, how much talent do they expect to come back? If they just want to clear him off the roster, he might make an interesting 1B/DH for someone at 2/10. Just not the Twins.
  9. Willihammer
    I'm excited about the bats. Vargas is going to hit some tape measure shots and Santana is going to continue to slap slash slip and slide his way above expectations. I can't find more than 2 possible soft spots in the lineup if everyone's healthy (knock on wood).
  10. Willihammer
    FWIW I did a quick search through SS's with min. 400 PA's since 2008 in that span, everyone who put up a 102 wRC+ or better started the next year.
  11. Willihammer
    https://twitter.com/MillerStrib/status/577216382787518465
  12. Willihammer
    Oliveros all spring 0 ERA no hits 27 K/9 only 1 walk and 1 HBP Dude was lights out.
  13. Willihammer
    Thought Molitor's postgame comments last week were interesting. Something to the effect of "Dickey tried to sneak a fastball by Rosario and he's not someone you want to try that with." Not that Dickey's 83 mph fastball is anything special but if Rosario is indeed a good fastball hitter maybe that gives him a leg up on MLB pitching. Seems like the struggles of some guys - Parmelee and Arcia to a good extent, have been related to the inability to hit decent MLB fastballs.
  14. Willihammer
    Oliveros also cut
  15. Willihammer
    Bullpen constipator
  16. Willihammer
    I think Nunez refuses to advance without his helmet. Which is funny because he never arrives with it.
  17. Willihammer
    Buxton cut, Nunez to LF
  18. Willihammer
    Stauffer sucks
  19. Willihammer
    True. I'm skeptical it would take 2 years to get Dozier to sit at the table, Kipnis and Carpenter both got MVP votes before they signed their extensions, but you might be right. Again, I think it probably depends on the person. If I'm Dozier, I'd jump on a 5 year contract yesterday. Although if Halsey's source knows anything, the Twins are the ones that need convincing to come to the table.
  20. Willihammer
    The Tribe gave Kipnis a $1m bonus and also raised his salary in year 1 from league min to 2m. So he got a 600% raise in year one. He also got a 2.5m buyout in the final year if the team doesn't exercise its option. Probably depends on the person but that would seem like a pretty sweet deal to me.
  21. Willihammer
    The free market wouldn't surely pay him less. His career could go off the rails anytime. The Twins would be assuming that risk. An extension would almost certainly have a signing bonus. Kipnis and Carpenter got 1 and 1.5 along with a raise. Its too late to give Dozier a salary raise I think but they could leverage a nice bonus in exchange for the team options. edit: Oh and buyouts could be included with the team options.
  22. Willihammer
    Alright so for all those saying "the Twins can afford to pay Dozier if he is still a stud when team control runs out," here are some of the contracts signed by players of similar age and WAR this offseason Brandon McCarthy, 3.0 WAR, age 31, 4/48m Ervin Santana, 2.8 WAR, age 32, 4/55m Melky Cabrera, 2.6 WAR, age 30, 3/42m Nick Markakis, 2.5 WAR, age 31, 4/44m Assuming 12% $/WAR inflation, the Twins would be looking at a 4 year 59m commitment for a 31 year old coming off a 2.9 WAR season in 2018. Obviously there's a chance Dozier's career derails in the interim, and that risk should be priced in, but this is where the potential savings is if he stays on his current trajectory (or exceeds it). They can hang onto him for one or two extra seasons without committing to his age 32-34 seasons at a cost of an extra $29-44m (assuming an extension of 4 or 5 years). edited: math
  23. Willihammer
    What was the average production of this sample at age 31?
  24. Willihammer
    That's... surprising for a bullpen that allowed so many balls in play (29th in xFIP). Seems like they may be due for regression in that area.
  25. Willihammer
    I've never seen a study that's broken down the xFIP-ERA gap into batted ball components and defensive components. Its possible, but unlikely, that 100% of the Twins xFIP-ERA gap was caused by extreme batted ball luck. Actually not 100%. xFIP is regressed across all of baseball so AL pitchers will have slightly higher ERAs than xFIPs on average. Its also not park-adjusted and TF appears to be somewhat of a hitters park.
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