drjim
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Everything posted by drjim
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Running Down The Hall (Of Fame Ballot)
drjim replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Probably right. I looked again and Posada wasn't as good as I thought. And agree on Edmonds.- 114 replies
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- barry bonds
- jeff bagwell
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Running Down The Hall (Of Fame Ballot)
drjim replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
3 in a year is plenty. Voters did a fine job. To me Posada dropping off is the biggest injustice.- 114 replies
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- barry bonds
- jeff bagwell
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Correct. That was a response to a hypothetical.
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Or realizing Berrios obviously wouldn't be enough.
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This is good stuff. I haven't checked out 2080 before. I think the difference for me relative to you is that I'm not especially concerned how they get the information, I'm concerned with the output. I also need decent information for all teams and some context across systems, I don't need to drill down especially deep on one team. For the Twins, for example, I would read the work here and not even really bother with the work of these 5 aside from cross system comparisons. I just can't pull that off with all 30 teams. I agree with your final sentence. It is about using as many as you can and gleaning what you need. Relying on any one list is a mistake and will result in blind spots.
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Mlb.com strikes me as a basic aggregator. Boring, conservative, consensus. BA has the more depth and information, especially with lower ranked prospects. I think their flaw is they let personal cheeseballs get too much attention. Probably too much emphasis on tools as well. Law is good, but doesn't go all that deep in systems, and (for better or worse) he gets locked into an analysis and won't move from it. Sickels is quirky with some interesting nuggets, and I think he can unearth some people that slip through the other lists. He is especially good with pitchers. Fangraphs will have statistical finds that are missed by other lists, but I think their flaw is they elevate certain prospect profiles that statistically seems strong but are not actually good prospects (if that makes sense). This is a side conversation from Dozier, but I've been cranking through lists the last several days for my dynasty league. Doing some comparisons to previous years lists.
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Agreed. I personally endorse the bias, especially with pitchers. I think mlb.com is the most boring list, but also the best of the main 5 I look at (mlb, BA, Law, Sickels, Fangraphs).
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FWIW, mlb.com has De Leon listed as the #8 RHP prospect in baseball. Alvarez is not on the top 10, but did get mention in the "Next Up" section. http://m.mlb.com/news/article/213616014/2017-top-10-right-handed-pitching-prospects/?topicid=151437456 Of other note is that the Whiteys have acquired the #3, #4, and #10 on the list this offseason so far (and may get #5 if they move Quintana).
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I continue to be torn on Trump. I initially thought he would be taking the country into a darker, more authoritarian place, but lately I've been coming around to the thought that he is just going to be so comically inept that all the worst fears won't be realized. There will be all kinds of bluster but not the massive changes. All talk and no action, if you will. It's not going to be a good by any means, and there will be plenty of bad policy, but it might be much more easy to recover from than I had feared a couple months ago. Seems we'll at least have a competent Defense Secretary, so foreign policy won't be a complete disaster.
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George Bush endorses this post:
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This is all the key. If it works, he'll pull it off and the Republicans will have to pull back. The Republicans in Congress clearly have an agenda that they want passed. As long as that is moving along and the country is in good shape, it will be fine. If the economy starts to fail or Trump doesn't sign the agenda passed, Republicans will jump ship fast.
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I thought it was a very interesting way to look at it. Every new GM will face a unique situation so nothing is perfectly replicable, but a little caution and conservatism when taking over a new and unfamiliar organization seems prudent. We could have gotten AJ Preller. Friedman to Dodgers, Preller to Padres, Epstein to Cubs, Stearns to Brewers, Klentak to Phils, Shapiro to Jays, Dipoto to Ms, Luhnow to Astros strike me as the most recent relevant comparisons.
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Yes indeed.
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It's really hard for a President to do much if both parties are hostile to him. And his popularity is not going to "continue" to rise. It's been falling since the election. Might get a little post-inauguration bump, but that only stays if everything stays in really good shape. He has a passionate base, but it is much smaller than a typical President. He won because enough Republicans held their nose and supported him. They are not committed to him and especially not if he is warring with the party. The popularity of that is vastly overstated.
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Want to see me hit some dingers?
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Perhaps, but only when another scandal comes about. But it is important to note that by all measures Trump is by far the least popular President elect of the modern era. He'll be ok as long as the economy is acceptable and he plays along with the Republican agenda. If either of those waver it will go bad in a hurry.
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Bad loss, but road losses never kill you. They need to respond.
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Inflation risk is my main concern.
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Agreed. I would move even more in this hypothetocal scenario.
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I wouldn't move Kepler, but I would move someone like Gonsalves (if that helps). Kepler is a great asset right now. I would need much more than De Leon to move him for instance.
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I would trade Berrios right now without hesitation if the Twins were WS contenders.
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I still stunned every time he says or tweets something over the top. This is not normal. Politics is a nasty business, but this is a new level. I don't accept it. And if this is the new normal going forward we are in a bad spot.
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I guess I would say that if the Twins had just lost the ALCS, had a clear hole at 2b, and had significant pitching depth in the minors, that they wouldn't hesitate to move De Leon for such a huge upgrade.
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I do think we are going to see a spectacular collapse of his Administration and all time historical personal humiliation. But so much bad can happen between now and then.
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Plus, Sano is going to DH a decent amount of times this year (or at least he should). I'm skeptical Vargas, Park and Mauer are all on the roster together at any one time.
