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TheLeviathan

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Everything posted by TheLeviathan

  1. TheLeviathan
    I'm not sure having three starters in the bullpen constitutes a way around the logjam....didn't you just shift it to the pen in that scenario? I doubt all of these guys are going to shift well into being an effective short inning pitcher. Not to mention, I worry about when we transition these starters into short inning roles. Are they just going to go from failed ST starter to bullpen guy in a week? From Liriano to Slowey we haven't seen that always go well. If we're going to add more, I'm with Bonnes and his phrasing.
  2. TheLeviathan
    This offseason was a win the moment they went over 3 years and chump change for a FA. That gives me hope for the future.
  3. TheLeviathan
    There are degrees to it as well. I'm not sure many here would sit a 3 WAR player for a negative WAR player. But would you willingly pass over an old, 1 WAR player in favor of someone younger? I'm not sure that's a win now vs. win later stance so much as it is prioritizing winning later vs. winning now. I want to win more now, but the prize is still later.
  4. TheLeviathan
    I don't think that range is right. We out-performed our expected W-L by 5 games last year. While we certainly could do that again, I feel like the low should factor in that we don't. I imagine the range should be more like 68 to 88. I can't imagine this offense managing to win 90 games.
  5. TheLeviathan
    Yeah, I'm not nearly as high on the offense. I think it drags the team down this year, but they should still trend up a nice notch from last year.
  6. TheLeviathan
    Whoops, that was 2011. Still....is a 96 ERA+ horrible? I'd hope not, I don't think there are then adjectives to describe our pitching the last two years.
  7. TheLeviathan
    Only because we've lowered the standard to justify lowering the pay. The union plays a role, but the societal investment we put in education limits the dollars to go around. But the union is also the biggest stumbling block towards incentive pay for good teachers.
  8. TheLeviathan
    The degree of probability is still a matter of opinion, so this is a distinction without a difference. I disagree with your probabilities and can because they are based on your opinions. That problem, combined with you repeatedly insisting upon "logic" and "fact" supporting you are part of the problem. This is a discussion of opinion, which may include opinions of probability, but still an opinion. Since when is an ERA+ of 127 horrible? I'd argue most of your opinions/probabilities are based on bad data/facts and a complete disregard for SSS and relevant data.
  9. TheLeviathan
    The point, again, is being missed: If you limit your analysis to the results of one season and dismiss other avenues to see upside - you're taking far too limited a scope. This has been a constant theme. And that's how you get lead down the path of stamping your feet that "logically" Worley and Diamond have no upside. Which is a preposterous position. We can disagree about the upside, but we can't narrow the view of two players and then conclude we've figured it out. My example was to illustrate that if I similarly narrowed my view of Hicks I could reach a conclusion that someone, like you rightly did, would disagree with. You bring more relevant data and can have a much different opinion. Or maybe the same. But the idea that you can just ignore everything about a player's profile but what fits your argument is simply not a good way to establish your point.
  10. TheLeviathan
    The problem is all of this doesn't mesh with your other opinions. Especially since you've spent this thread stating things as matters-of-fact when they are really just matters of opinion. Hicks certainly has upside, but that is an opinion. Just like my opinion of Worley and Diamond. If one were to base their opinion of Hicks' upside in the same manner you have with Worley and Diamond they simply could not conclude that. One year's worth of data - deliberately picked out from other relevant data - would conclude Hicks is one of the worst young players to ever make the major leagues. You're simply not taking a consistent approach to things, in part because you believe your statements about Worley and Diamond are facts, rather than opinions. One can reasonably disagree with your opinions based on other data and you don't seem to acknowledge that.
  11. TheLeviathan
    Common Core, especially for Math, is catching on in most states. Minnesota will likely adopt. The problem is that different curriculum's offer different strengths. But most all of them come with a great deal of lesson planning and companion support.
  12. TheLeviathan
    We tried to give HIcks one too and he was historically awful.....are you consistent in wanting to give up on him as well?
  13. TheLeviathan
    If that was true and such a huge perk, less teachers would quit in the first five years. Also, most districts allow you to get paid for the nine months instead of 12. Assume a new teacher around 36,000, that teacher would make the equivalent of 45,000 for the school year. Again, not going to acquire many of the best people out there. If we don't want bad tenured teachers, we should incentivize the job more. Like they do in many of the best educational countries in the world.
  14. TheLeviathan
    Your estimation seems right Hammer and even if I do more than average those rates aren't real inspiring to draw high quality people into the field. Ben was right, we supress salaries in the fields of education and social work because we minimize the jobs importance\difficulty.
  15. TheLeviathan
    Hard to say because part is the age level you teach. the early grades are far more taxing than the upper grades. I would imagine most teachers put in close to that. Some certainly coast though. And don't get me started on union stuff, I appreciate their efforts on many fronts but on ensuring teacher quality they are far and away the biggest problem. like any union these days they don't protect quality workers, they protect all workers. Even the awful ones with no business influencing kids.
  16. TheLeviathan
    Not sure what your point was, but the better number to analyze would be my 400+ hours I put in beyond my contract. For most that's OT pay but there are various standards there. But I can assure you as someone who has worked in business and a typical 40hour a week job for many years pre teaching, that if you think the summers and holidays means we work less for our money - I invite you to come try and prove that true. That opinion won't last long. The perks are awesome but holy gods do I earn them with every stupid parent, challenging child, and constant prep.
  17. TheLeviathan
    Regardless of your opinion, numerous studies have shown by a large margin that the greatest indicator of chold success is the quality of the teacher.
  18. TheLeviathan
    I'm curious to see if we get "Power Dozier" or "OBP Dozier" next year. The power thing was so new it'll be interesting to see if it continues. At least, at rock bottom, we know we have a damn good fielder.
  19. TheLeviathan
    This has been a big part of my problem with the opposing view - guys like Pelfrey and Hughes were bad last year too and are getting a free pass into the rotation on upside. I'd just like that same mentality carried to a few other guys - favor upside over low floor. But I totally disagree with the idea that Diamond, Worley, Deduno, Gibson, Albers or anyone else has a prayer of beating out Hughes or Pelfrey for a spot in ST. I simply can't conceive of a scenario other than injury in which that happens.
  20. TheLeviathan
    My average day is 6:30-4:00 and I don't get a dime of overtime for that 1.5 every day I put in. Plus a couple hours every weekend. I did an estimate for someone that I do a minimum of 400 hours of unpaid overtime every year. That more than covers my summers. The problem with the lazy teacher belief is that all it takes is one bad teacher to poison the well for the rest of us. It's a hard thing to keep out of a school's culture.
  21. TheLeviathan
    Different strokes for different folks I guess, I wasn't nearly as impressed.
  22. TheLeviathan
    Pfft, it's just babysitting....
  23. TheLeviathan
    It's hard to be insulted by something so patently false. It's more sad this mentality persists - great teachers need more support not minimization.
  24. TheLeviathan
    To me Logan Darnell is closer to the discussion than Albers. Stringer nailed my reasons - age and a lack of past success. Worley and Diamond have both been very solid MLB starters very recently, whereas Albers made a couple nice starts before reality set in. As for your earlier point about the offense, I just don't see enough upside bats in the lineup for an improvement to take place. I think Dozier comes down, Mauer/Pinto isn't likely to be as good as Mauer/Morneau (sad, I know), and most of the rest of the positions don't have a lot of growth room. Only a huge jump by Arcia seems plausible to me, but I worry that the Ks at the end of the year are going to force him to adjust in AAA for awhile this year. I agree the rotation is going to be much better (I'm really bullish on Hughes personally) but I think the offense might actually be worse. Or marginally better at best. But hopefully some young guys surprise us.
  25. TheLeviathan
    I'm guessing he's one of those types that will put butts in the seats of a minor league stadium. Guy has a consistent history of killing the ball.
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