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kab21

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Everything posted by kab21

  1. kab21
    I don't believe this is true. The Twins aren't a low revenue team and they could have 2/3 of their starting lineup making <3M (most of them @500K) and several parts of their rotation and bullpen. If you look at the numbers the Twins have about 70ish M committed to fill out a roster and only 1 or 2 positions to spend it at. There is a lot of money available even if they won't have a 150M payroll. I expect them to stay somewhat conservative but that doesn't mean that they can't.
  2. kab21
    You listed a bunch of things that I completely agree with but have nothing to do with the KG trade. Value this is not nearly as bad of a trade as people make it out to be. If Wiggins is just a little disappointing then it will be hard for the Love trade to match. FWIW though I love the Love trade considering the place the Wolves were in. It could easily have ended like the Johan trade. I think the Rubio pick was from Washington and the Wolves got back their Flynn pick back from Boston. And it looks like the other pick in the trade was Ellington. Just awful drafting and trading (not the KG trade) for over a decade. Imagine not taking Flynn and instead keeping Lawson from that draft.
  3. kab21
    I don't think Ryan will pursue this route because it's unRyanlike but there are people on here that are making an argument that the Twins shouldn't even look at pitching because we need to make sure that Milone and May have a clear path to the rotation. The rotation is not fine. Players like these are better kept as plan B/C instead of the AAAA cannon fodder that we have seen in the past and are likely to see more of.
  4. kab21
    I think prospects are an overvalued currency to some extent but I don't see how this helps. The kind of deals that typically happen with prospects are for guys with 2 years before FA (Samardzija for example). This is not the right time for that kind of deal. That is not the window for the team. However signing a Lester/Scherzer only cost money. And the Twins have money to spend. A lot of it. I find it ironic that a season ticket holder made the argument that the Twins are going to lose a lot of revenue (fewer season tickets) because of how poor the team has been so they shouldn't sign an ace that instantly gives their rotation credibility and shortens the rebuilding window. Hughes//Gibson/Nolasco? is a solid rotation but a Scherzer/Hughes/Gibson is really nice.
  5. kab21
    There were 6 assets in the Garnet trade compared to 3 in the Love trade. I can't understand how someone can complain about the riskiness of the 3rd and 4th best players in one trade when the 2nd player (Bennett) in the Love trade is all boom or bust. In addition the draft picks were substantially better although Philly has helped out the Wolves considerably turning a likely mid rd pick into Young.
  6. kab21
    He is days away from age 28 and has hit .620 OPS with a 26% K rate in 1300 career PA's. Defensively he has a slightly negative career UZR. 19 games mean nothing.
  7. kab21
    I don't understand why or what we are trading guys like Meyer or Berrios. If it were me I would almost all of next years FA chips into Lester/Scherzer to go with Hughes/Gibson and possibly a healthy Nolasco and then add Meyer and/or Berrios to that. This is what STL has been doing. They had a good rotation but whenever they have an injury/disappointment they have a Miller/Wacha/Lynn/Kelly/etc to call up from the minors. I doubt this will happen but I think just like the last several years we will see that the Twins rotation still has holes next year. The goal shouldn't be to simply put a rotation together of average pitchers with a couple good but not great pitchers. And imo that is what a Nolasco/Hughes/Gibson/Milone/May/Meyer rotation is. That rotation is risky and is two steps away from cycling AAAA pitchers through it for some/most of the season.
  8. kab21
    I don't remember the rumors at the time but Al Jefferson was the centerpiece that was on the verge of becoming a 20/10 player. That doesn't jive at all with your high risk high reward theory. There were high risk high reward parts of the trade but landing a guy that immediately becomes a 20/10 guy kind of is the opposite is risky. Gomes wasn't a risky/rewardy player either. Imo the Garnett trade is unfairly criticized in hindsight because every other move Kahn made sucked (aside from the KLove trade if he was still here) and the team plummeted to the cellar.
  9. kab21
    I guess that I don't grade the trade itself based on whether or not they hit on draft picks. It would be like saying the Love trade was a disaster if Wiggins is merely good/decent, Bennett stays a bust and Young leaves as a FA.
  10. kab21
    I'm talking about his public comments about Love. He has to take the high road and not say anything or just mention some general BS about how what he did for the org.
  11. kab21
    If possible there is no roster reason to not add a pitcher that would be the best pitcher on the staff. It might not make financial sense to spend 150M on a pitcher but this team sorely lacks a #1/2 and likely will for quite awhile. Considering that the Twins have so many pre arb players set to start with more prospects ready to fill and a low payroll for the next few seasons there is money available to burn. Better to concentrate that money in one great pitcher than spreading it around to several maybe decent players.
  12. kab21
    Why on earth would we trade a 5M sunk cost for a 45M sunk cost? I'm not a fan of Schafer but I would rather have him than a 15M/yr BJ Upton. That's how bad Upton is.
  13. kab21
    Glen Taylor is a moron.
  14. kab21
    We only had a few games on TV last season but I couldn't believe at how poor fundamentally the #4-7 guys on each team (good teams) are. Multiple guys on one team that can't knock down a 12 footer. Multiple guys that should never dribble. tough to watch. The Garnet trade was not a bad trade at all but the pieces just didn't work. tbh that was one thing he didn't screw up (too badly). He threw in a 1st rd pick into almost every trade for a mediocre player and the picks that weren't traded away (or lost due to Joe Smith) were complete bombs (including the Flynn pick from the Garnet trade).
  15. kab21
    Minor has some shoulder problems. An underrated pitcher if healthy but that could quickly change and then you are left with Upton who is barely playable currently (negative WAR FWIW).
  16. kab21
    It's not unusual for someone to have unpolished defensive skills as a rookie. It's also not unusual for a toolsy defender to never become a good defender though. Regardless Hicks's future is tied to whether or not he can hit the ball. If he doesn't hit then it doesn't matter what kind of defense he plays.
  17. kab21
    I have started watching basketball again. It's a different game than 25+ years ago but it's pretty good right now imo. I have been impressed at how much better the shooting has improved. This is good and bad. Jumpers have almost become automatic and teams are relying on them (and especially 3's). Much better than the sloppy mess from 10 years ago.
  18. kab21
    Hicks graded out poorly due to non-polished defense. His defensive tools should allow him to be an excellent defender. Whether or not he gets chances to reclaim the role is whether or not he can hit MLB pitching.
  19. kab21
    I definitely do not hold back signing a starting pitcher that would immediately slot in as the best pitcher on the staff because we need to hold a spot open for Milone or May. I think this would be an awesome problem to have. If you look at successful teams (the Cards or the Braves for example) you will see them with good options to call up when one pitcher goes down. Your plan is to rely on the Darnells, Albers and Pinos whenever something happens. As we have seen in recent years a team needs 7-8 SP'ers to make it through a season. May is kind of the poster child for my argument. He's a pretty good prospect but he really isn't likely to be an above average starter. If he's going to be good then at some point he will force his way into the rotation. I certainly have no problem with starting him next year but if I have the choice between Lester, Scherzer, Shields or ESantana with May ready to be called up then I will certainly take the experienced starter every time.
  20. kab21
    So what combinations of players can work for the Wolves since they have to jettison several players before the season starts. Can Rubio, Lavine, Wiggins, Young, Pekovic work together? Is Pekovic a big clodder that just doesn't work despite being a really good player or is it something else (like the backcourt). Can the Wolves mix other youngsters like Dieng, Robinson or Bennett into this somehow? Are any of the veterans (Martin, Barea, Brewer, Budinger) decent fits even if they aren't longterm pieces? Or are most of these getting sent elsewhere?
  21. kab21
    Having too much talent is not actually an issue for any team. Certainly not the Twins pitching staff. And this isn't even factoring the scary rate of attrition of MLB starters. Entering the season with 6 starters (Pelfrey doesn't really count) is asking for trouble when two of them have an iffy injury history. Strained ligaments (nolasco) and shoulder issues (meyer) frequently come back unfortunately. any big splashes in FA should yield a better player than that young player can become especially in the starting rotation. Young players with upside won't be blocked if they are the real deal. Guys like this force their way into a lineup/rotation. The guys that could get blocked are the guys that have average upside and probably won't be anything great. What the Twins don't need is another Correia or pelfrey signing. I have never understand the hate that KC got but this type of pitcher is not needed currently.
  22. kab21
    Future depreciation of the dollar? This is not at all what time value of money means. Time value of money means that Pohlad can invest that 15M extra frontloaded into Melky's contract somewhere (they're bankers) and have 18-20M in a few years when it's time to pay Melky.
  23. kab21
    This is only true if you actually operate with a spend it or lose it budget. A banker like Pohlad definitely understands the time value of money. Front loading a contract like this could increase the actual value of the contract by 5M (or more) dollars.
  24. kab21
    Here is an article on the Cubs that directly applies to the Twins. It was posted previously in the MLB forum section. http://grantland.com/the-triangle/chicago-cubs-rebuilding-theo-epstein-javier-baez-kris-bryant-jake-arrieta/ My takeaway from this is that offensive prospects/draftees are less likely to bust so you get an increased value to the org from going offensive heavy. Yes, offensive prospects bust but there is a continual stream of pitchers that bust and now there has been a big increase in young pitchers blowing out there arms. Since the Cubs (and Twins) don't have financial constraints for the most part they are able to load their system with hitters and the result is a very cheap offense. It remains to be seen whether or not the Cubs will become big spenders in FA (once they have a core in place) and/or trade their surplus hitters for established big league pitchers. The other part of the equation is of course picking up average (TWood) or upside (Arrieta) guys on the cheap and hoping that something clicks. If the Twins have 6-7 really good offensive starters making 500K-5M/yr then they could go after some big name pitching in FA. The money should be spent somewhere.
  25. kab21
    If Hughes has another season like this one then the extension goes from something like 3/40 (plus the 2/16 left) to 4/64 to 5/80 (plus the 1/8 left). A big part of the reason is that he will only have 1 yr left before FA and there seems to be a big mindset change when players are that close. The other consideration is that a 3 yr extension locks him up through age 32. A 5 yr extension next offseason locks him up age 34/35.
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