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kab21

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Everything posted by kab21

  1. kab21
    I would love to spend big but I would be thrilled if they splurged for Ervin. I wish they would have done in last year and offered him Nolasco's contract late in the offseason. I would simply not post on here for weeks if they signed Lester or Scherzer. It's the aggressive move that they could make but won't consider. A sleeper in FA. Jake Peavy. I think he could have a sneaky good rebound getting out of Fenway for 2/25. It's kind of funny when someone draws conclusions based on even/odd year data. Be critical of Hughes's overall inconsistency throughout his career but even/odd year is meaningless.
  2. kab21
    Acquiring young talent doesn't equal a rebuild. Before 2011 the Twins expected to challenge for the playoffs each season and they were just refilling/retooling their minors. Every team does that. The Twins retooled in '07 when Hunter/Santana were traded/not signed but they remained competitive. Part of that retooling was getting prospects in a trade and using extra money to make an int'l splash. One defining characteristic of a rebuild is cutting payroll to give the team payroll flexibility and play younger players. The Twins payroll peaked in 2011 and has gone done each year. It's arguable that the Twins didn't fully commit to the rebuild at that point but they weren't in FA trying to plug every hole with a decent vet. The first season they tried a little (Willy's offseason) but after that FA was basically just stopgaps until this year. People were not happy about KC's signing but imo the FO considered it a lost season and went value shopping. It took patience but the high minors was barren and we have suffered miserably for awhile. The Twins are nearing the end of this rebuild cycle so they went after a few good FA's that should be here when the current wave of prospects start contributing. One important distinction is that I don't think a rebuild cycle ends with playoff success. This cycle is ending but it's possible that the Twins aren't successful (I'm optimistic though) and they have to rebuild again. The Wolves are in the 3rd rebuild since the Garnett trade.
  3. kab21
    And Thorpe moves into the inevitable TJ surgery category for me. Perhaps it doesn't happen but it's not the end of the world if it does. Doesn't change much long term about him as a prospect other than push him back a year+.
  4. kab21
    We definitely have to blame Anderson because a guy like Milone turned into a pumpkin within a month of being acquired. I blame marginal stuff. If it's off just a little then it turns into a disaster.
  5. kab21
    You can't make any conclusions based on completely different situations. Wainwright in particular is bad example to use since he had 800 MiLB innings. At that point his arm doesn't need to be babied even if he pitched a year in relief. I think using the plus 30 rule for pitchers that spent a year relieving after pitching 160+ innings in the minors is a misuse of the rule.
  6. kab21
    There really isn't much reason to do any statistical analysis on May. He's completely sucked but he is just getting his feet wet and we can pretty much just throw these stats out. This is another reason why Milone and May shouldn't be penciled into the opening day rotation or spots held open for either of them (or even Meyer). AFAIK they all have options and singing a FA starter won't block any of them considering the disaster (possible injury) of Nolasco, the uncertainty of Meyer, Pelfrey's issues (being polite) and May/Milone struggling. Nobody good will be blocked for a considerable length of time.
  7. kab21
    Wainwright's situation is completely irrelevant to Meyer (but not to May). Wainwright threw 182 innings the year before he spent a year in relief as a rookie. This is one of the reasons that this plus 30 rule needs further analysis in each situation. If someone is injured or pitches in relief it doesn't set that person back to 70IP to 100 to 130 to 160 to 190. further analysis of some of the Twins pitching prospects For Meyer he has pitched 130 - 70 - 130 innings so I would expect him to be limited again next year in the plus 30-40 range. Berrios is 20 yrs old and has gone 100-140 and I would expect him to be limited in the 160-170 range next year. Trevor May almost certainly will not have an innings limit next year even though he only has 120 IP so far. He has pitched 150-160 innings for the 3 previous seasons. There's no reason he can't go 200 innings. Thorpe and Gonsalves will certainly have innings limits but it might not be plus 30. I wouldn't be surprised if they were allowed to go 120+ allowing them to pitch most of the season.
  8. kab21
    Sano and Buxton would have to become truly elite players for them to be too expensive even if the Twins signed an ace now or in a few years. And even then I'm not convinced that it would be impossible to afford all three since the overlap would only be a couple of years. It's also a problem that I would be happy to have 7+ years from now.
  9. kab21
    Tell this to Scott Baker. He just wasn't tough enough until of course he needed TJ. Nolasco was diagnosed with an elbow strain. This is not career threatening nowadays. If he's going to need TJ then it's better to find out this season instead of waiting until next spring. That way the Twins potentially don't lose the next 2 seasons (and the last one). He should be starting right now despite the injury this season.
  10. kab21
    Berrios isn't in the same trap as Gibson or Meyer. Both were recovering from injuries those years. Berrios will be held back next year because he is 20 yrs old. I find it interesting that there seems to be a jump to conclusions that it is good to rush young pitchers to the majors and pitching 180+ innings/season. There have been a ridiculous number of TJ injuries but it's possible that pushing young pitchers too fast has been a contributor.
  11. kab21
    He has a 4.54 ERA away from the Coliseum. That's nothing like Hughes and Hughes has the magical stuff. If you don't like the Diamond comp then Worley would be better. He had pitched well for two seasons but he had marginal stuff and he fell apart. Perhaps Milone can be decent but the most optimistic prediction should be a 4.00 ERA. Most likely he's in the 4.25-4.50 range.
  12. kab21
    In addition to that the Twins shouldn't avoid the SP FA market because they have to have an opening day spot for 3 of Milone, Meyer, May and a possibly injured Nolasco. As far as I can tell Milone, May and Meyer will still have options (1 option for the first two I think).
  13. kab21
    So did Terry Ryan. Remember he was traded for Sam Fuld. This kind of illustrates my point that you don't have to keep rotation spots open for guys like Milone. He should be more of a plan B.
  14. kab21
    The easier plan would be to not use 13 pitchers. If they do then it will be a short term thing. I'm not the biggest fan of Schafer but the 4th OF'er spot needs to be a capable defender unless the Twins have a CF'er starting in LF which is unlikely.
  15. kab21
    September won't tell us anything about Hicks. If anything it gives the team false hope going into spring training if he doesn't have a terrible month. Schafer isn't playing CF because Santana is playing CF. If Santana wasn't there then Schafer would be. Santana should be getting time at SS in September and in spring training so that he isn't completely rusty. If CF turns into another disaster he can move back there during the season next year but his future is not in CF and his bat isn't interesting in a corner position. Imo he has better defensive tools (not current ability) than Escobar and a better bat. He might not project as a great long term option at SS but he is the best option for the next 3-4 years. I'm still distressed by this need to trade Plouffe. Escobar has had a nice season but next season I think he will show us that he's not much of a hitter. I will take the under on a .650 OPS. I'm convinced that this board will be horrified by Sano's defense at the hot corner if he's playing there everyday. Plouffe isn't great but he has a solid bat and glove and is the best 3Bman since Koskie.
  16. kab21
    Perception is interesting. Arcia is a sure K and Vargas has a good eye at the plate. Vargas - 26% K rate Arcia - 31% K rate The difference is that one of these is getting a lot of hits when not K'ing (Vargas and .398 BAPIP) while the other is not (Arcia and .285 BAPIP).
  17. kab21
    Hicks doesn't need to be dominant to come back up but he's been getting jerked up and down for the last two years. I think the next time he comes up it will be his last chance. Hicks's success in September won't tell us anything for next year. If anything it sets the team up to start with him in CF for a 3rd year. Schafer can play CF so Santana can move to SS for September.
  18. kab21
    Yes No No ? Plouffe is really not that bad and I think once we see Sano playing at 3B we will be asking to move him to a spot he can do less damage. And the Twins don't have anyone else decent in the minors to play 3B in the near future. Escobar? That probably turns out to be as great of an idea as depending on Punto as a 3Bman after he bailed them out for a season. Why does everyone need to give Hicks another chance once he has had a glimmer of success in the minors? We have played this game twice and I really hope that a solid stopgap is brought in to play CF next season and hicks is in AAA possibly taking CF away in 2 months.
  19. kab21
    Right now he has a .398 BAPIP. If his BAPIP drops to .300 with the same K rates then he's a .225/.275/.400/.675 hitter (at DH). We don't know exactly what his BAPIP will drop to since each hitter can control his BAPIP to a certain extent. We do know that .398 is unsustainable by anyone and he's a big guy so beat out IF singles won't boost his BAPIP. Luckily Vargas has a history of good K/BB rates in the minors and it's not a surprise that a rookie loses his plate discipline on his initial callup. Of course Arcia hasn't improved his plate discipline.
  20. kab21
    He does add a nice bench weapon that your typical utility IF'er or OF'er doesn't have. I usually complain about the lack of a good bench hitter but Schafer is a nearly elite pinch runner and can be used as a pretty good defensive replacement.
  21. kab21
    The problem is that Mastro and Pressley had nice short stints that they looked like good 4th OF'ers or spot starters but then they reverted back to what they were. It's quite likely that we will be able to lump Schafer into the Mastro/Pressley category next year.
  22. kab21
    Somebody is taking this playoff thing seriously. Off to a big start.
  23. kab21
    In 3 years Nolasco will be a FA and Mauer will be a year away from FA. If extensions are pushing the payroll through the roof then those multiple prospects or young players are turning into All-Stars. That is a problem that I would love to have. Love, Love, Love.
  24. kab21
    I do not like the Astros role in this but the players wanted a soft slotting system like this and that led to these shenanighans. The owners would have been very happy to have hard slotting and I wouldn't be surprised if the next CBA had hard slotting and something resembling an international draft.
  25. kab21
    Things are not as rosy because the Twins will have lost 90-100 games for 4 straight years. One way to grow revenues (or keep them from sliding) is to field a better team by investing in it like you would a business. It was tough to make an argument 2-3 years ago to go after big name FA's since there was nothing resembling a core and most of the prospects were 3+ years away. Now there is a core developing with multiple top prospects ready to be called up. It's pretty reasonable to think that an elite player would still be in his prime during a Twins playoff run if the Twins ante'd up this offseason or next even if they weren't immediately contenders.
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