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kab21

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Everything posted by kab21

  1. kab21
    Dozier has settled into a .240/.320/.420/.740 MLB hitter with good defense. This is a really good player. Expecting Polanco to do that is very optimistic. I like Polanco as a prospect but I don't like his upside as a hitter. His power numbers have dropped every year and he probably ends up being a 5HR/year hitter that doesn't walk much. The good news is that he makes a lot of contact so he should have a high average to make up for that but it will be hard to have an OPS much over .700 with that profile. Here is a comp for Polanco - Alexi Casilla. Polanco hit for a little more power and Casilla hit for more contact but Casilla should have been a solid player. Polanco should become the player that Casilla should have been if he hadn't thought he was a power hitter and if he can make routine plays. Now this should be interesting...
  2. kab21
    Your link is from 2014. I don't gamble but I would invest my entire life savings on the under 41 for the Knicks.
  3. kab21
    We get a major typhoon (same thing as a hurricane) every year in Taiwan so these things are usually normal for me but that storm is ridiculous. Because of the frequency of storms here there are no wood houses and very few steel frame structures. Concrete can withstand these types of storms but this storm could be really devastating to Mexico. We can only hope that the damage is minimal but this looks really, really bad.
  4. kab21
    I wish people would stop trying to make the team worse. It is unlikely that Polanco is ever as good as Dozier and certainly not next year. There is a 1% chance that Rosario is moving back to 2B and that is only if Plan A, Plan B and Plan C failed miserably. Trading Plouffe can happen but it is quite unnecessary and sets the team up for depth issues at 3B with a 3B that may or may not be able to field the position and a question mark at DH although I like Vargas. The focus in the trade better be getting back some really good talent instead of this so called unblocking of Sano. He is a MLB'er for his bat and his bat will 100% for sure be in the lineup.
  5. kab21
    So this Bjelica guy seems like a 4 that just stands out at the 3 point line and takes 3 pointers based on the % of his shots that are 3 pt'ers. That could be quite an asset if the other guys can create open shots for him. And of course if he can play defense adequately.
  6. kab21
    You really don't think that better pitchers outperform average pitchers if you use several years of playoff data (to get enough sample size)? Using your argument the Twins should not bother to look for great hitters because Plouffe or Rosario will go on a Daniel Murphy tear and be better than a Miguel Cabrera level hitter. Of course there will be 10 game stretches where Plouffe is a better hitter than MCab but if you combine 20 Plouffe level hitters over 10 game stretches then you will find that the elite hitters were decidedly better. The playoffs are a small sample size but that doesn't mean that you can expect a Marco Estrada level pitcher to outperform a Price level pitcher going forward.
  7. kab21
    Actually it doesn't vary widely unless you are only looking at single game performances which have about as much statistical relevance as clutch hitting. If you looked at aces as a whole in the postseason then they would have significantly outperformed the #3/4 types by a similar margin as they outperformed them in the regular season.
  8. kab21
    I guess I would be more concerned about year 1 and 2 than year 5-7. A pitcher like Gray is a dream trade scenario since he is in arb/min (and underpriced) for the next 4 years. Berrios looks awesome but a 50% chance of being a #2 still leaves a lot of downside. Of course Berrios isn't going to be traded and it will be awesome to read the comments in a few years about how people were trying to trade Berrios for anything and how stupid that would have been.
  9. kab21
    Having an ace doesn't guarantee that a team will win. Not having anyone better than a #3 makes it really difficult to win 3 series.
  10. kab21
    Did I call him an ace? I called him an ace-lite (definitely outside of the 10+ no doubt elite pitchers) which is like a good #2 and yes he is a clear #2. At age 25. This needs to be repeated. He has pitched like one of the 30 best pitchers and he is still 25. Your math is also a little iffy. He hasn't pitched 3 seasons. He pitched 64 innings his first season and has been worth 3.1 and 3.8 WAR in his full seasons. That fits squarely into your definition of #2 (3-5 WAR). It is okay to disagree with trading Berrios but your definitions of top pitchers would rule out acquiring nearly any pitcher unless they cost >200M. The Twins need to find a way to get 1-2 pitchers that are better than Gibson, Hughes, Santana, Duffey or May. These guys are good #3/4's and finally the Twins have enough depth that they can be a playoff contender but it is hard to advance when you are matching up Gibson vs Kershaw, Arrieta or Price. Berrios might be great (I like him A LOT) but great pitching prospects still fail A LOT.
  11. kab21
    Not really. The <100M not elite pitcher contracts mostly look horrible but the 100+M contracts did pretty well. I would take the following in hindsight (6 for 6 since CC's 2nd contract was a signed with same team ) Greinke Scherzer Darvish - it's around 110M including posting fee - 3 great years and 2 post TJ years left Tanaka - his elbow is a little iffy but he is awesome when he pitches Lester CC 1st contract - yes CC 2nd contract - no The lesson is that if you are going to spend in FA then you should go after elite players (or close to elite). Going after the 40-60M FA's is where there is poor value.
  12. kab21
    Gray was 26th in FIP this year and 29th in xFIP as a 25 yr old. I think your definitions of #2/3 starters are a bit off. And he did this before reaching his prime.
  13. kab21
    Or offer him a qualifying offer in 2 years and get a draft pick. Nobody has said that the Twins should offer him a big multi-year deal. Good teams have surpluses of good players. It is called depth. Somebody gets hurt and they can put in a good player instead of Eduardo Nunez for an extended starting role. And I must have a lot less confidence in a starting OF of Hicks, Rosario and a prospect with Vargas at DH. There is a lot that can wrong out there. Having Sano at DH (rotating some at 3B) is not a problem.
  14. kab21
    Then don't say that the Twins are blocked from this move because they have too many #3/4's on the team. They can get around that. You also overestimate how much the Twins have committed for next year especially if the Twins trade Plouffe and Milone. They can make this happen without going to 130M. Realistically though there is 0% chance they go this route. It just isn't the Twins way. I really don't understand whoever made the comment about Hughes. He has been a starter for the last 6 years. His velocity drop was due to something else last season. As was his lack of K's (3 straight years of 7.5 K/9). The problem is that nobody seems to know why both of those happened.
  15. kab21
    I'm just saying that because of the cap rules and matching salary rules that it will be really hard to trade him this year much less find a team that will give you something of value for him. In another year with a moderately effective season it might be possible. You are right though that he isn't as worthless (negative value) as BJ though.
  16. kab21
    What year are you planning on trading him? Right now almost every team is capped out for the year. And even next year you still have to deal with matching the contracts unless a team has cap exceptions. There isn't much point in trading Pekovic for an equally large contract. The good thing is that Pekovic's contract isn't actually going to hurt the Wolves considering all of the young and underpaid players that they have. They don't really have anywhere else to spend that money.
  17. kab21
    Too many arms should not be the reason that the Twins don't try to add an ace. This is the absolute #1 need that the Twins have going forward. There are many reasons to not add a FA like money (what you actually might mean), age, risk, length of contract, the improbability that one would sign, or anything else but too many #3/4 starters is not one.
  18. kab21
    I said nothing about it being easy or possible to sign a top FA. The FO likely won't even consider it but Brock's argument was that the Twins shouldn't do it because the Twins have 5-6 #3/4 starters. I completely disagree with that reasoning. There are other reasons (like you state) but that shouldn't be one of them.
  19. kab21
    Listen to Bert.
  20. kab21
    I am sorry but this is invalid logic. The #1 problem facing the Twins for the next 5 years is finding an ace. Passing on one because the Twins have too many #3/4 starters isn't a reason. Passing on one because he is 32 and is going to make 25+M/yr for at least 6 years is arguable. At some point the Twins might have to bite the bullet and pay the price for an ace. Cole Hamels got a lot of talk at midseason but he would have cost Berrios and 2 other really good prospects (if not Buxton) and the board hated it because he was 32 (or something) and signed for 4 years. Sonny Gray for Berrios/Kepler got mentioned as a hypothetical and many hated it (many were also fine with it) because at age 25 he hadn't put up dominant peripherals. Now a straight up FA gets mentioned and doesn't cost the precious prospects but people still hate it. I also prefer Jordan Zimmerman but he won't come cheap either. And this would be a really rare Twins move. If they did this (any top FA starter) then I am okay with Plouffe, Milone and Gibson (arb 1) being traded and saving the team 12-15M next season and more the following season. I doubt that Santana would be easy to move and there is a chance that he is better than Gibson for the next 2 years. But it is possible to find the money to make it work. There is of course zero % chance that this is even considered though.
  21. kab21
    The point is that the window is open now and they don't need to operate as sellers. Talking about Plouffe not being here when the team hits its stride is silly. Stop selling unless the return is great or if you can get Norris and plug the one offensive hole that they have. They have some questions marks elsewhere but there are some good/great prospects for those spots. You make an argument that the Twins should be doing better than a Mauer/Plouffe/Sano combination at 1B/3B/DH and then downgrade defensively at 3B and put a question mark like Vargas in at DH. That definitely isn't guaranteed to be better. I like Vargas but even if a trade isn't made I think it is likely that at some point someone gets injured. Good teams have depth and can absorb injuries. Bad teams are an injury away from starting Eduardo Nunez at 3B.
  22. kab21
    I will say 25 wins. The western conference schedule is brutal. I also think that Pekovic would be an excellent 15 minute/game backup but the team has to formally make that move like they did with Martin and Lavine. It helps that Pekovic is out for awhile and a front court rotation will be established by the time he is back. If the young players are doing great then it is easier to put him into a 15 minute role. The thing about trading Dieng is that there don't seem to be any rumors out there. Perhaps rumors will pick up in a couple of months when it is obvious that there aren't enough minutes to go around and players on other teams get injured. I could see Bjelica getting <10 minutes/game until a couple of injuries happen.
  23. kab21
    But won't Towns be starting at the 4 with Pekovic and Dieng getting most of the minutes at C? If Bjelica surpsises then potentially the Twins have a valuable trade chip in Dieng. He might have his limitations as has been noted but he is signed for <2M for 2 more years. Most likely they would have to target draft picks because they don't need any more players right now unless they are studs. This team is legimately 2 deep with NBA caliber players at all positions. Who knows how they fit together but they at least have raw talent.
  24. kab21
    No, players agreed that it is the way baseball has been played and that it is allowed under the current unwritten rules. That doesn't mean that it should be part of the game.
  25. kab21
    Please explain why his K rate is going to go down because he moves stadiums. That doesn't really make any sense.
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