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kab21

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Everything posted by kab21

  1. kab21
    I have never understood why there is this insistence that Polanco can't play short. I think ideally he doesn't play short but I think he can.
  2. kab21
    The most games that he has played at any affiliate was 87 games in High A split between 2 seasons. Overall he has only played 250 games in full season ball. That is about 2 seasons worth. The problem with this blame game is that he hasn't stayed anywhere long (TD posters have wanted him pushed also), he has been injured and for the most part he has been one of the best players in his league throughout the minors. I think people just need to relax and let Buxton play in AAA (and not demand a promotion after he tears it up for a month).
  3. kab21
    I think he just needs time like Carlos Gomez did. My preference would have been to wait before promoting him the last time but Rosario fell apart, Santana was Santana and Kepler was just called up so they needed a true CF. Now I would send him to AAA until at least next july and make sure that he is working on the issues mentioned. It is easy to place blame on him not bunting well or having flaws in his swing but it is hard to fix those things when a player has never failed and is one of the best players in his league by natural skill. I think he is still a .800+ OPS hitter with elite defense but that requires patience just like it did with Carlos Gomez. The moves of Plouffe and Buxton should be separated though. Buxton needed to be sent down regardless of Plouffe. Plouffe needed to be called up regardless of Buxton. Ideally a different move could have been made but there really isn't a logical move other than combining the moves and dealing with it (too many corner/DH's) for 3 weeks.
  4. kab21
    It just came to Taiwan last weekend and things are insane here. I haven't played yet but I will sometime. I have other things to do though. Like a business and launching a second business in the next 6 months.
  5. kab21
    This should be about where is the best place for Buxton to develop. He needs significant work done on his swing and that is difficult to do at the MLB. And Grossman, Kepler and Rosario should get most of the AB's. Santana's role should be the 25th player that rarely plays but he isn't used that way unfortunately. I think Plouffe should go in a waiver deal but I doubt the Twins move him. Frustrating roster management.
  6. kab21
    Buxton has played about 100 AA/AAA games. His swing is a mess. How does he have nothing to gain in AAA?
  7. kab21
    I am as big of a Plouffe supporter as there is on the board and I let him go. Something has to be done with the 1B/3B/DH logjam and there should be no way that he is tendered arb this year. Nor will he have much (if any) trade value.
  8. kab21
    I went through this repeatedly in the offseason but almost all teams (especially the contending teams) had 3B locked up last offseason. That doesn't mean that Plouffe wasn't better than some of those players but there were very few teams in the 3B trade market. And you need someone to trade with to actually make a trade. As evidence of that the Reds practically gave away Frazier because they felt that they had to deal him. Polanco is great as a plan B option at 3B and I don't buy into this notion that a particular position needs to have a certain kind of bat. Polanco overall can be productive enough to play 3B and is the kind of bat needed in the Twins lineup.
  9. kab21
    I think Plouffe is underrated by many on this board. Just like Dozier he is a very streaky player but he hasn't had his hot streak yet. The only problem is that he doesn't fit on this team at all. I think Sano is and always will be an awful 3B defensively but the Twins have Mauer and several DH's so he is going to play there for awhile. More importantly the Twins have Polanco who makes an excellent IF backup in case Sano doesn't improve or in case of an injury. If someone was concerned about having a good plan B then they don't need Plouffe.
  10. kab21
    The problem isn't that Buxton was called up with very little AA/AAA experience but rather that he has remained up. Some players are able to make the jump but others are not. It is one reason that I was never in a hurry to bring Berrios back up. There seems to be this weird infatuation that prospects can only learn at the MLB level and any time in the minors is time wasted. Buxton should have been back in AAA over a month ago. He hasn't mastered it. He had a hot streak with iffy plate discipline.
  11. kab21
    If you think you can trade Santana for a borderline top 100 prospect then non contending teams are for sure going to claim him also since they can keep for the rest of the season and then trade him for a borderline top 100 prospect. Santana isn't crazy valuable in the trade market but many teams (even non contending teams) would prefer to take Santana and the 2/25+M left on his contract rather than go after comparable FA's that are looking for 3-4+ years.
  12. kab21
    And to think we spent years complaining that the Twins couldn't find a true DH. Now the Twins have all Billy Beane and filled half the roster with them. The timing of Plouffe's return is awkward. Polanco shouldn't be sent down or completely benched. Vargas should be given chances since he has hit very well. Sano should play through this. Despite his slump he still had a .749 OPS in July. And unfortunately Plouffe is coming back and he is going to play. I would have buxton down weeks ago. He hasn't proven anything in AA or AAA. He has barely played there but sending him down wouldn't be related to Plouffe because that doesn't solve the 3B/DH problem with Sano/Vargas/Polanco/Plouffe.
  13. kab21
    Defense and stadium don't explain an entire run difference between FIP and ERA. Nor does Santiago being much better than his FIP while in Chicago. Or that the Twins will likely have an OF defense of Kepler/Buxton/Rosario/Grossman which should be pretty good. There is no evidence that Santiago sucks other than your gross misuse of FIP. The biggest problem the Twins have had is not cutting dreadfully awful veterans. Everyone knew that Nolasco was awful and he still started for 4 months this year. And yet prospects still have gotten their chance. If the Twins go into next season with the current starters then any prospect that deserves a chance will get their chance. Teams need a lot of starters to get through the season. The last thing you want is to depend on a guy like Wheeler, Dean or Albers. Even on a team that is rebuilding you don't want these guys to be higher than option 8-10 for the rotation.
  14. kab21
    Hughes is probably toast and I doubt May is headed back to the rotation. the rotation is awful w/o a pair of veterans like Santana and Santiago. Every year people complain about prospects being blocked by a theoretically deep rotation and every year the rotation sucks and the prospects get plenty of chances. And the only blocking that occurs is by absolutely awful pitchers like Pelfrey and Nolasco. Santiago is actually an average pitcher and nothing like those yet. Santana Santiago Gibson Berrios Duffey Mejia The suspects of Wheeler/Dean/Albers/etc Don't worry, you will get plenty of chances to see the likes of Wheeler, Dean and their mediocre MiLB K rates.
  15. kab21
    The problem with this entire analysis is that the Twins don't have pitching prospects that are ready and blocked next year. The AA/AAA rotations are full of non prospect pitchers (and Gonsalves and Stewart - not ready next year). The only prospect that I want to see brought up next year is the recently acquired Mejia. Nunez/Mejia (A-) Someone made an argument that Mejia is not a sure thing and risky. The counterpoint to that is that they traded Nunez. Great value. Abad/Light ( B ) More of a shoulder shrug. Neither has much value. The Nolasco trade ( B ) - It is an odd trade. They lose on potential upside but I think they prevent the FO from signing an aging solid starter to a multiyear contract. The rotation is so bad next year that they almost need to bring in a stopgap. Don't worry there will be plenty of chances for any prospects that are decent at all to earn a spot.
  16. kab21
    I am in general against giving catchers big money contracts. A case can be made for it but I would prefer a Alex Avila type as a stopgap. Pair him with another catcher and look for a longer term answer elsewhere.
  17. kab21
    Are you kidding? Santiago's ERA is a full run better over his career and more than a full run better in recent seasons.
  18. kab21
    Actually the Twins do lack #5 pitchers. The rotation depth at the MLB level and in AA/AAA is that bad. But Santiago has performed better than a #5 pitcher.
  19. kab21
    FIP, xFIP and other advanced stats are useful but this is a gross misuse of them. There is a very significant sample size that says Nolasco performs worse than his FIP and that Santiago performs better.
  20. kab21
    I have seen this mentioned a few times but the other way (aside from Meyer defying all odds and being awesome) that the Twins lose this trade is by giving Santiago an extension. PLEASE NO! He is a solid pitcher that prevents the Twins from going out and giving a FA big money.
  21. kab21
    That would make Santiago more like Suzuki. Nolasco is by far the worst pitcher in baseball for the last 3 years. He doesn't belong on a baseball field at this point. I almost expect Santiago to completely fall apart because that tends to happen with Twins pitchers when they either come here or after signing extensions.
  22. kab21
    Nolasco and Santiago are nothing alike. Santiago has a 3.68 career ERA (4.25 this year) and Nolasco has a 4.58 career ERA (and 3 seasons of 5+ ERA). The Twins paid for that improvement with an intriguing but oft-injured and inconsistent prospect.
  23. kab21
    This is a cash neutral deal so I don't get too excited about the dumping Nolasco part other than he can't pitch for the Twins anymore. The Twins could have just DFA'd him. I am bummed at the deal because of the mismanagement of Meyer. But this is where the Twins were with him. He has been hurt and he completely imploded last year so it wasn't all the Twins fault but there was wasted potential and the Angels could potentially hit big on this trade. Of course I expect to see the 'I told you so's' to come after Meyer has 10 great games. I don't see any way that Meyer can pitch 3 full seasons without a major arm surgery. Overall though I like this trade though. The rotation next year is deplorably awful. Getting Santiago reduces the chances that the Twins go out and sign another aging 4/50M pitcher next year. He could potentially be dealt next year for a better prospect but I really hate the idea of adding more declining pitchers to long term contracts. Busenitz is another potential reliever for the Twins. Nothing special but depth.
  24. kab21
    There is a difference between picking and choosing among a teams prospects and the pu-pu platter. Right now people are talking about pitching prospects that rank near the top of the other teams prospect list. That won't be the level of prospect that is returned. Santana's WAR is meaningless as far as trade value. Opposing teams aren't excited about 33 yr old pitchers with 2.5 yr contracts. Plus fangraphs WAR is based on FIP instead of xFIP. And I have said all along that the Twins might as well keep him since it is unlikely that they will get a decent prospect(s) for him.
  25. kab21
    I think people are quite over optimistic about Santana's trade value. I hope but don't expect a trade to get a borderline top 100 prospect but I don't expect it. I could see a trade where the players are named and everyone (including the minors experts) has to search for information about them. I think Suzuki gets traded and probably Abad for a trivial prospect. I think one of Nolasco or Milone get cut during August.
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