kab21
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Everything posted by kab21
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You're dreaming much more than the midseason trade dreamers. It doesn't matter how much money a team has in its offseason budget, they aren't taking Morneau's whole contract (much less giving up a good prospect). In July he'll only be owed about 5M so it wouldn't be difficult for the Twins to pick up a couple of million to get a decent prospect. I'm not sure if anything changed in the last CBA but extension have to 80% of the previous yearly value. Essentially the Twins would have to extend Morneau for about 11M/yr or wait until he is a FA to offer a lower amount.
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How is $14M not significant? That's not a sure thing; even if he's good, as we saw this year there's a limit on what you can get for a 3-month rental. I don't recall any top prospects being moved for future free agents. the problems with your plan A) there is no team that is going to pick up the full 14M in addition to giving up a good prospect to do it There isn't much of a problem with money next year. The problem is that any FA that is worth signing is likely getting a 3-5 year contract. signing multiple 30+ yr old starters that will almost certainly fade as they hit their mid 30's will put this team in a very bad position in the future. If the twins can get a good prospect back for Morneau (or Parmelee) then I'm all for trading him but that just isn't realistic. It will either be a salary dump for a minor prospect or the Twins will have to pay most of the salary to get a decent prospect. Might as well keep him if that is the case.
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We've already talked about it. there is no point to trade Morneau unless you are getting a good prospect back. due to his 14M salary that is very unlikely even if the Twins picked up half. It sucks for Parmelee but it's only a matter of time before one of Doumit/Mauer/Morneau get injured. Even before then he can get AB's by each of them taking a day off each week and getting another start in RF (even if it is brutal).
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Tyler skaggs you are it. Haren demoted to the bench instead of 2 start Magic Santana. Not looking good for our BYTO rep in the winner's tourney. come on perfect game and then some.
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This would only be true if you were leaving BAPIP out of the equation as well as GB rate and HR/FB rate. Going forward you would expect Harang's BAPIP to climb some and for him to give up a similar number of HR's as Haren.
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Sano and Rosario are definitely two guys that could potentially be fast tracked but even though they are having good seasons they are not dominating their low A this year. I don't have any problem with Sano staying in Beloit all season despite 26 HR's and a .900 OPS. One could actually argue that Arcia has been fastracked. He's 21 with an expectation that he'll be in the majors by July next season. We're looking at 500ish AB's in A ball and 500ish AB's in AA/AAA.
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I think we're on the same page but I was talking about the pitchers adding strength while also not adding flexibility similar to what occurs in most weight rooms/gyms. Too many people are busy bulking up (including baseball players) and then straining muscles because they only concentrate on bulking up. Additionally by bulking up and being able to throw harder you are also putting more stress on ligaments that might not be able to proportionately increase their ability to take the stress. Baseball players today are significantly different than the skinny guys from 25+ years ago.
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the arb/super 2 game is a different discussion. I'm specifically talking about the ridiculous arguments that 'if Trout/Harper played for the Twins they would only be in A ball right now'. There seems to be this myth that the Twins don't promote fast enough thru the rk/A/AA levels. If some had their way any decent prospect would be promoted after a month of decent production similar to what the Mets did with so many prospects. Aside from a couple of college pitchers like Slowey/Garza/Gibson there have not been any prospects (that I can think of) that deserved to be fast tracked.
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when I speak of blackburn in this thread I speak of the half decent Blackburn from a few years ago. There was a huge thread on BYTO where the most ridiculous reasons (ability to induce weak contact was my favorite) were given to defend why he could maintain a 3.00 ERA despite being entirely mediocre in pretty much all of the advanced stats. It wasn't really a surprise to many of us when his luck reversed at the end of the season and in the next season. You can talk up Deduno's small sample size but if his movement was really that nasty then he would strike out WAY MORE batters (more like Slama). Throwing 50/50 balls/strikes is awful. If a pitcher continues to put hitters on base (1.5+/inning) things are going to blow up at some point. Diamond is actually a pleasant revelation this year and is a legit MLB pitcher but I would compare him more to the Twin's version of Carl Pavano. A good but definitely not great pitcher that you expect a 4.00 ERA. I'll take it as a start since everyone else is awful.
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Imo TJ surgeries (and all arm injuries) are up because HS/college coaches abuse pitchers less now. Those with better mechanics and more durable bodies used to be the only ones that survived to the majors. Another cause is probably due strengthening programs that strengthen muscles but probably don't help the flexibility and ligaments as much. It's unfortunate Giolito but TJ is very successful nowadays and a one year delay in development isn't the end of the world.
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Diamond and Deduno are nothing alike. Deduno is failing constantly. His 3.33 ERA has been helped by extraordinary luck. He has a 1.59 WHIP for those of you that don't like to use any of the complicated stats. There are baserunners out there everywhere and it's a miracle that he's pitching better than Blackburn. I don't think anyone in this thread hasn't said that diamond has shown that he's a competent MLB starter but expecting anything beyond a 4.00 ERA is risky. Unfortunately the same could have been said of blackburn a few years and this is exactly the type of arguments being made in favor of blackburn. Except those arguments just got ridiculous.
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I challenge you (or anyone) to start naming names of Twins prospects that were unjustly held back. The Twins are conservative with promotions but they also haven't prospects that have dominated levels (other than appy league).
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It's silly how people try to come up with trades for those with negative trade value. At this point you just DFA him and hope that someone puts him on an MLB roster (paying the MLB min back to the Twins).
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I remember threads like this about Nick Blackburn 3 years ago (at BYTO). Diamond is a nice guy to have to fill out your rotation but my highest expectations are that he can be a 4.00 ERA guy for the Twins. Just to show how delusional some are Deduno has 0% chance of being a capable MLB starter. He has more BB's than K's this year. It's a recipe for disaster if he's considered for anything other than Rochester's rotation next year.
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At last this nightmare is over (hopefully). It seems to me that this is the end since they waited almost until rosters expand to do this so I have to think the Twins are setting up to part ways this winter.
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He does say that "although the sample here is just three plate appearances" I've read enough of this man that he'd be cold dead in the ground before he based an opinion off 1 game. He's simply reporting what he saw that day, NTM the reports from other scouts and publications that say the same thing about his defense and I don't think he's making some wild opinion off one game. He does a lot of research but this might have been the only time that he has actually seen Sano play in the last year. I think he sees a lot more MiLB games than a few years ago but I still remember his top 100 comments from a few years ago. He started about 25 of the comments with 'when I saw this player at the futures game, he...' He made it sound like the minor league baseball that he watched all year was the futures game. At this point all I care about is Sano's bat. I'm giving him a 1% (or less) chance at being a starter at 3B. The final nail in the coffin will be that his bat will be ahead of his defense (similar to Myers/Harper recently) and you'll have to make a decision about whether to keep him in the minors because of his defense or call him up because of the bat.
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looked but .......no:cry: Needling some with Berrios, would be very happy if he starts the season in Low A & pitches the whole year there. If he dominates tho....want to see a promotion. Hard to compare last yrs to this yrs, as this yrs got in a full half-season of ball I just get tired of hearing criticism about how the Twins move prospects along slowly. They are conservative compared to most teams but the recent prospects haven't exactly been dominating any leagues and rarely have made the Twins look foolish when they were promoted. I also think you are way too optimistic about what an 18/19 yr old #31 pick (in a weak draft) should be able to do in his first season of full season ball. He's not Dylan Bundy and he's not Jose Fernandez. He was an outstanding pick and I'm expecting good things next season but acting like he will just roll through A ball like he did in the GCL/Appy league is setting yourself up for disappointment.
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yawn. Sano with another. I should go look for some video of him to see if he's tamed some of the movement in his swing because 26 HR's in full season ball is pretty exciting.
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1st - this is a silly goal. 2nd - does your list include any pitchers beside Dylan Bundy?
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What Are The Twins Worth In Light Of Padres Sale?
kab21 replied to John Bonnes's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
The Astros sold for 680M (including a 65M league change bonus) last winter and they only had a valuation of 549M so the MN math might not be perfect. -
Why we need to trade Josh Willingham this offseason.
kab21 replied to Forever34's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
I guess I interpreted it as a defense that the Pirates have been rebuilding for the last 20 years. They never built or rebuilt anything in that time. -
Even this offseason I think people need to face the facts that neither Parmelee or Morneau have any significant trade value. If Morneau did then I would be all about trading him but since he doesn't I'm fine with going into 2013 with Mauer/Doumit/Morneau/Parmelee as the team's C/1B/DH options. We've been lucky this year since they have been healthy but it's unlikely to continue. The 3 older players can use days off and there's always the option of throwing Parmelee into the OF once a week for a year even if it is a little scary.
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Why we need to trade Josh Willingham this offseason.
kab21 replied to Forever34's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
First of all, I haven't seen anyone saying the Twins should "do anything" to get back to immediate contention next year. But I'd certainly argue that the team should look for young players that can help right away and put some of their freed up payroll into pitchers that can make an impact. The alternative is to have the Pohlads pocket the $20 million rather than spending it in free agency, and trading away all veteran assets for prospects. Maybe a nice theory until you look at the job this organization has done of evaluating young talent in recent years. The Twins aren't in a position like the Pirates and Royals because they have no tradable superstars. They have guys like Span, Willingham and Morneau that they can probably move for B-prospects. That's not a great recipe for rebuilding, especially when the kind of lesser prospects you tend to target are almost always some variation of Pedro Hernandez and Eduardo Escobar. I'm all for signing a FA pitcher until it becomes 5/80M deal for an early 30's average pitcher. That's the problem with FA. The EVIL Pohlads might pocket a little money in the short term but they retain payroll flexibility for future teams. Nobody has suggested trading Willingham or Span for some variation of Pedro Hernandez or Eduardo Escobar. There is no deadline to trade those 2 since they are signed for multiple seasons but it's time (was time) to make them available to pick up some legitimate MiLB talent. -
Why we need to trade Josh Willingham this offseason.
kab21 replied to Forever34's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
You don't really understand why the Pirates were awful for so long. They had one of the lowest MLB payrolls and they were also really cheap in the draft bypassing the BPA for signability several times. Combine that with making awful decisions at the MLB level and you are left with an org that eventually has to trade the few good players that they produced. They were simply a complete failure as an organization that never had a rebuilding plan until recently when they started spending megabucks in the draft. -
SafeCo is my favorite stadium that I've been to just ahead of Comerica (haven't been to Target Field). I think you're right about there not being a bad seat in the house.