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kab21

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Everything posted by kab21

  1. kab21
    The 2010 Pavano cost Yohan Pino and a couple million. I would start looking at cheap guys that are similar to Pavano and not expensive ones (even if the Marlins pay half). I also wouldn't give up good prospects.
  2. kab21
    other than this, I don't know but it is a fact... I tried citing myself when I wrote a paper once. It turns out that I would have been better off citing Wikipedia (which currently has the Twins declining his option, but not ruling out his return). The previous poster asked about a tweet when he should have asked about the source. thrylos responded with the only tweet (his own) that he knows about. For now all we have to go on is that thrylos inside source is accurate.
  3. kab21
    Great first move to the offseason. I'm guessing that the consensus will think they overpaid when we find out the dollar values for 2013 but the important thing is to lock in options since those will be the seasons that he should be pretty good. If he's not then you decline the option.
  4. kab21
    One of these has had a very good career while one of these looks like a AAAA pitcher. Despite Marcum's lack of velocity he has found ways to K MLB batters which is something that Devries has never done at any level.
  5. kab21
    This is an argument that I have not made. I use xFIP a lot and I think it's one of the best stats out there. But it's not perfect either. Over large sample sizes (like careers) ERA tends to be a pretty good stat. Over small sample sizes (like single seasons) ERA fluctuates like crazy. Career ERA also needs to be adjusted for great defensive teams (neither MIL or TOR), significant park effects (neither Miller or Rogers) or league effects (equal split between AL and NL).
  6. kab21
    +1 These days Marcum might be a good #3-4 pitcher. Had only one season in the AL with an xFIP under 4. This is Diamond territory. A completely laughable misuse of stats. xFIP is far from a perfect stat. He has shown over his career (900+ innings) that he can beat xFIP by 0.37 pts. That's a pretty significant adjustment. Some pitchers can do this and some cannot. How easily you dismiss NL innings is ridiculous. He's put up a 3.60 ERA over his last 700 innings which were equally split between the AL (East) and the NL. That's definitely not a true #1 but that's far better than I would predict for Diamond next season.
  7. kab21
    There is zero barrier to signing any of the pitchers in FA. The Twins can spend close to 30M before they hit the 100M with Morneau on the roster. The only real barrier is that you're likely committing big dollars to a declining 30 something starter. I've shown in a recent thread that is not good investment but that doesn't change that the Twins can afford it w/o dumping Morneau. 1) The first thing I DON'T do is dump him this offseason. John tried to make it sound like he's a player in demand but that just isn't true. He's an avg hitting first baseman with injury issues making 14M. The only way the Twins get a halfway decent prospect (ranked in the Twins top 10-20) is if they pick up at least half of the contract. I'm sorry but that's just silly. At that point you might as well keep him and keep the fans happy. 2) To answer all of your other questions. Try to trade him at the deadline if he keeps rebounding. If not then decide if he's worth a qualifying offer or a new (reduced) deal based on his 2013. Maybe you get nothing for him (other than a fan favorite and a solid player for a year) but dumping him AND paying a team to take him would be foolish.
  8. kab21
    For the last 20 years Cubans have been paid like FA's and then produced a pretty dismal track record. Combine that with a team that was a little too cheap (for everyone) and it's not a big surprise. I'm just glad the team isn't cheap when it comes to the Dominicans anymore. They have also been doing great in PR recently.
  9. kab21
    This is a pretty poor argument and article imo. None of these pitchers will cost 14M for ONE YEAR. They will all get 12-15M for 3-5 years. As far as the Twins payroll is concerned they can keep Morneau and add one of these pitchers w/o coming close to 100M next season. So the argument really becomes trading Morneau and signing two of these pitchers which ties up 75-125M of payroll for the next 4-5 seasons. I'm all for trading Morneau if a legimately good offer comes along but I wouldn't hold my breath considering that he makes 14M, looks average and he has injury concerns. tbh I think Morneau will be as productive as Willingham next season and Willingham carries far more trade value.
  10. kab21
    You don't remember Sano, Kepler and Polanco getting signed in one offseason? they didn't sign another million+ prospect until this year but they were still very active signing guys. Just because a team isn't signing a 3M guy doesn't mean that they aren't adding a lot of talent. Cespedes is your argument? Really? He signed a 4/36M deal with a lot of risk and the Twins are loaded with OF'ers.
  11. kab21
    This is why the Twins are bad now but I think some have too high of expectations of player development. It's pretty common for teams to have several seasons of the draft not produce much. I think the FO noticed this started getting more aggressive internationally which has resulted in some pretty good prospects in the Twins system.
  12. kab21
    It doesn't make sense since the Twins shouldn't be building for 2013. At least go after someone that is signed for 2 years. I think Lincecum could be an interesting topic for next offseason though.
  13. kab21
    Regardless if the bullpen is a big concern or not you don't address it by spending a lot of money on it in FA. Bullpens get fixed by picking up failed starters or by dumb luck to be honest. Target more guys like Burton and Fien and you could pick up another cheap reliever that is far better than shelling out a 3/12 contract for a mediocre RP'er.
  14. kab21
    It's always terrible. The Twins aren't in a position to give a MI a big contract so imo this is actually a GOOD year for MI'ers in FA. Scutaro, Drew, and Keppinger are affordable and solid while Yunel Escobar is likely to be dumped by the Jays.
  15. kab21
    He's that guy that pitches like an ace but just hasn't been able to have that ace type season (except in '09). You've also kind of summed up the problems with signing FA starters. ALL OF THEM get overpaid. I like signing Greinke for 5/90 a lot more than a lesser and older starter for 4/50. Greinke's a workhorse that you can count on for 200+ innings of 3.50 or better pitcher. And I still think he pitches like that ace that the stats say he is. Reasons that you sign Greinke (stats since he secured a full time rotation spot) K rate 8.14 9.50 7.50 10.54 8.48 BB rate 2-2.50 every season Innings 202 229 220 171 - offseason basketball injury 212
  16. kab21
    While I'm not sure if I agree that the bullpen is the 2nd priority I agree that it could be awful next season. Just one injury and things could fall apart. However I'm not sure if FA is where you fix bullpens. Of course Ryan didn't say FA so that's good but bullpens seem to more often be fixed by castoffs acquired in little trades, small FA pickups or converted starters that sucked.
  17. kab21
    My biggest concerns are #1 and #2. i'm all for signing a good pitcher but usually if you sign a player early then you've agreed to the player's terms instead of using a month or two to negotiate. I also think the writing is on the wall for Span and they've made it obvious that they're dealing him and that they will take the any best offer.
  18. kab21
    It's clear that you have no idea how good marcum is. The Twins have ZERO pitchers as good as Marcum. the concern is that he'll be injured and not pitch at all. ERA's the last five years 3.39 TJ 3.64 3.54 3.70
  19. kab21
    That would be awesome but unrealistic imo. Texas should trade for pitching and they need to. I would have a backup plan in place if i were you.
  20. kab21
    he's significantly better than anything the Twins have had. And he's significantly better than anything available on the market unless you can get 55 yr old Marco Scutaro (my top target). This team needs players that are good at baseball and Yunel can hit a .700 OPS with good defense at SS. Start suggesting other ideas since Floriman, carroll, Dozier (there's still a little hope though), eddie escobar and anything else the Twins have suck.
  21. kab21
    I'm more curious of that .655 and .644 OPS in two of the past 3 seasons. Also I'm not a fan of signing idiot homophobes to this team. The Twins MI OPS'd .590 last year. His DOWN years look pretty damn good imo.
  22. kab21
    I think they left out one thing. IIRC int'l bonus cap room can be traded up to an additional 50% or something. It will be interesting to see if someone tips their hand and starts acquiring extra cap room.
  23. kab21
    Yunel Escobar sucks? Career .743 OPS with good defense. Does anyone know another player with those numbers? J.J. Hardy. Yunel is exactly the type of player the Twins should go after. He does sound like a jerk in the clubhouse but all indications are that he will be dumped by the Jays because of that attitude. And he's locked up for 1 more year with 2 5M options.
  24. kab21
    Wow! CC to visit Dr. Death over elbow issues. They say it's only bone spurs but they've been wrong so many times before. I would never cheer for a player to be injured but this would be devastating for NYY.
  25. kab21
    This doesn't mean that they can't be picked early in the draft. Overall this is a weak draft and so far it looks like the Twins will get a college arm that can help them in a year or two.
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