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kab21

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Everything posted by kab21

  1. kab21
    this never gets old. Wait a second... It does get old...
  2. kab21
    Being cautious signing FA's is not the same as ignoring it. I simply think you are unrealistic with your expectations. Teams don't go from losing 95 games to being in the playoffs in one season. And history is not kind to franchises that drop big piles of cash on 30 something yr old FA's that are declining. The teams that have been successful doing it usually have top 5 payrolls in baseball AND were bringing up a lot of talent out of their farm system. You can definitely spend some money in FA and I expect the Twins to add 20M to next year's 70M in commitments. Adding 30-40M in yearly salary is just asking for disaster.
  3. kab21
    You keep Mauer. There really isn't much to discuss. There are already enough complaints that payroll is too low but if you don't have Mauer then you have to go out and buy more overpriced 30+ year old FA's that are declining. Money is not a problem for the Twins right now. the problem is that spending a lot in FA is a terrible return on your investment. Even worse than Joe Mauer making too much.
  4. kab21
    I already typed it in the previous post but the only teams that usually call up top prospects for September are playoff teams. The Twins are not alone in this. This is the new economics of baseball.
  5. kab21
    The payroll should be anywhere between 85-110M next year. The biggest problem that I have with any of the 'Twins don't spend enough because...' complaints is that spending 40+M in one offseason can only result in bad long term contracts that won't give the twins much flexibility in the future. I think the Twins should spend as much as they can as long as they can limit it to 1, 2 or possibly even 3 year contracts. Being a realist the Twins probably end up with a 90ish M payroll. My expectations/hopes are something like 3/30 for a veteran pitcher, 2/10 for a guy like Scutaro and 5M or so for a guy like Baker.
  6. kab21
    People complain about this station to station approach the Twins have had but like I've said before very few twins prospects have deserved to be pushed aggressively. And now there is a complaint that Arcia has been promoted too slowly. He'll probably be up for good at age 22. This whole complaint with the September callups is ridiculous also. the financial setback from calling up top prospects in September has made this a thing of the past unless they are fighting for a playoff spot.
  7. kab21
    I think in the end you believe that there are easy answers in FA that just don't exist. There's absolutely no way the Twins are going to be able to get 3 good SP'ers away from other teams. And you're not finding #1, #2 or #3 w/o putting the Twins at a serious risk at being bad for a long time due to some significant money tied up in mediocre players. Here's as much as I'm okay with: sign the best starter the team can get for 3/35, trade Willy/Span for a guy like Shields and sign a guy like Baker/villanueva/etc on a short deal. This way the long term risk has been minimized and there is a chance that they have a solid rotation. Minimizing long term risk doesn't automatically equal completely punting the current teams. 5 year contracts for 30+ yr old non-elite pitchers are a terrible idea and I am 100% against any signing. Greinke is the only pitcher in this market that should get a 5 yr contract since he's younger and doesn't have any injury issues.
  8. kab21
    I've never said don't sign any. The problem is that a majority of the good starters go for 50-100M contracts and most of them end up being poor investments. A lot of good GM's have signed absolute crap in FA especially when you talk about non elite SP'ing so the trust your GM is complete crap. If you start shopping in the 20-30M price range then you are probably getting a #4 starter. You can improve your team in FA but you won't find the answers from turning a 90+ loss team into a contender. I also disagree with either contend or burn it to the ground trade all veterans. The Twins should be trading those with significant value but that list is short and Span/Willingham will still be valuable at the deadline or next offseason. No reason to just dump veterans for the sake of getting younger. The only prospects that are even remotely blocked are at OF/1B but that should work itself out by midseason.
  9. kab21
    Still a weak comparison. The Pirates and Royals were completely inept orgs that were terrible at drafting and player development. In addition to that they were consistently going cheap in the draft and not taking the best players. Additionally they never had money available to spend on FA's when they started putting together a young core of players. The Pirates and Royals finally understood how to build a farm system and there is finally hope for their franchises. The Twins have shown that they will spend in the draft and internationally. they also have a lot of money to spend once they start putting a decent team together. In the meantime they don't even need to go really cheap in FA. they just need to avoid big mistakes like the Wilsons, Lowes, Burnetts, Lackeys, etc...
  10. kab21
    The Cubs and Mets have been spending 140M/yr to be terrible for years and they have terrible farm systems. they finally have made the decision to cut payroll, ditch their expensive veterans and build thru their farm system. Kind of what the Twins are currently doing.
  11. kab21
    I'm all for signing FA's. The problem is that there is a limited supply each season and that's why you have to overpay. That's fine if you think a player will at least be decent for most of the contract. It's a problem if you have to go to 5 years and it's likely that the player will have declined a lot. For example do you think the two good starters from last offseason (Beuhrle and Wilson) will still be average pitchers at the end of their contracts? Many people have thought that Blackburn's 5M is a burden. How much more of a burden is a 15M bad contract? What if you have 2-3 bad contracts like that because you have gone nuts in FA with the wrong players? Perhaps you look like the Mets and Cubs.
  12. kab21
    I don't have a problem looking for a 3Bman but Youkilis is not a 3Bman. I'm not sure who else is out there but one of my top targets is Marco Scutaro. He can play all 3 of the positions that the Twins need and Plouffe is the only hope at any of those positions.
  13. kab21
    penny pinching might make this a 100 loss team. spending like a crazy man might make this an 85 loss team
  14. kab21
    Not even close. Marcum has put up a 3.39, 3.64, 3.54 and 3.70 ERA in his last 4 seasons (minus the TJ year). Jackson has only come close to Marcum's worst in his best seasons.
  15. kab21
    Which numbers are you looking at? Edwin Jackson - career ERA 4.40 Shaun Marcum - 3.76 I'll take Marcum everytime if he's healthy. His health concerns do level the playing field though.
  16. kab21
    He spent the entire offseason looking for 3/30-3/36 and when he didn't get it he signed a one year deal. I think he'll get that deal this year. He's pretty unimpressive but I'm all for buying the best pitcher that 3/30+ will buy. I don't see that pitcher as the answer but rather something to stop the bleeding without messing up the future.
  17. kab21
    as much as anyone can argue this isnt true.....it is. MN is still running the organization as a small market club doin things like this. You'ld hope, as a fan, that this would be something the club woulda jettisoned.....but they didnt. You CAN run a team with a 100m payroll on the cheap I call bull. Almost every team in baseball plays this game unless that player is needed for a playoff run like Machado this year. September callups of elite prospects on non-contenders is largely a thing of the past.
  18. kab21
    This makes no sense at all. Why would they choose this year? They have lost 90 games in two consecutive seasons and they need WAY MORE than JJ to be a good team. The best course of action is not doing anything to screw up the future. Things that will screw up the future is trading good prospects and signing average players to long contracts. For now the team needs to target guys on reasonable 2-3 yr deals like Willingham and it is going to have to take its lumps. Rebuilding awful teams doesn't happen in one offseason.
  19. kab21
    The Twins didn't call up Hicks/Arcia because of economics. It just doesn't make financially to call either up until June/July to gain an extra year of team control and avoid super two. If Morneau is traded you still have Willy, span and Revere in the OF. The Twins should not sign any OF'ers. They have starters. they have reserves. They have prospects ready to call up. this offseason is all about getting a starting pitcher or two and signing a 2B/SS/3B. Revere is the only player in the rotation for C/1B/DH/RF/CF/LF that will put up a <.750 OPS. Meanwhile Plouffe is the only one at 2B/SS/3B that has a chance at that number. It's more likely that the MI doesn't even come close to .650 OPS unless the Twins bring someone in. So if you want to upgrade the offense concentrate there.
  20. kab21
    So you're saying that the Twins system is only a little better than last year?
  21. kab21
    You are proposing to do #1 and #3 if you trade for Johnson with a huge extension. The Twins would be better off not giving up prospects and paying a little more for Greinke. Greinke might not be as good as Johnson but he's significantly more durable. I like how people are quick to say that they knew something was wrong with Baker last year when Johnson typically misses a couple of starts a season and was shut down for most of one season due to arm issues. there is absolutely no way that the Twins should give a guy like Johnson a 4/75+ extension even if they didn't have to give up any prospects.
  22. kab21
    And the twins aren't? trading anything significant in the farm system for Johnson is silly. He's pretty much the last pitcher that I would trade something significant for. He's already had TJ. He had a season ending arm injury in 2011. He's missed a few starts in other seasons due to arm issues. Some say that he has bad mechanics. Please avoid. Shields might not be an ace but he's a workhorse that gives a team a chance to win and he's signed for two years. I'm all about this trade if Span or Willingham can be the centerpiece. If it takes a good prospect then I would probably pass. Hanson is another interesting target since I like his upside and he has 3 arb years left.
  23. kab21
    Fortunately systems are deeper than AA/AAA ball. Overall the Twins have 2 guys that will probably be in top 25 lists, 5 that will probably be in the top 75 and several others like Kepler, Berrios, Gibson, Polanco, Harrison and Goodrum to give the system pretty good depth. It's still a bottom heavy system but there is a lot of talent in this system.
  24. kab21
    Reminds me of the time I played pool with bobby Higginson in a Detroit bar. He was a regular at the Shamrock while he was rehabbing from an injury at the end of his career. I'm not sure if he ever played again but he was earning close to 10/yr.
  25. kab21
    when did this argument ever turn into BPA = best batter available. that's not true at all. Close to half of the drafts back to 2000 have a pitcher as the 1A or 1B BPA (Prior, Verlander, Price, Strasburg and 2011). Last year the 6 best available players included 3 batters and 3 pitchers. This year Appel definitely falls into the top 5 talent wise and I'm hoping they take him regardless of Boras. The point is that you need to take what is available in a draft and you can't lock into taking a certain position in a draft especially 9 months before the draft.
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