kab21

for the reasons Nick listed I only consider it a bonus if Sano can stick at 3B. We will know more this year but if his bat keeps pushing for promotions and his defense is potentially holding up his big league callup by 1+ yrs then it becomes a difficult choice. The other issue is that I feel fairly certain that Sano's MLB time at 3B will be limited to 3-4 yrs. As he enters his late 20's and fills out his frame I just don't believe that he will be a 3Bman. If the giants had other 3B options I think they would definitely move the Panda to 1B.

I have it before but Mastro will be fan favorite as a reserve and he will be hated as a starter. Similar to Punto. He just isn't good enough to be an everyday player. I have also said it before but Mastro will play plenty. Mauer/Morneau/Doumit//Parmelee/Willy/Hicks will need days off so he'll play.

I'm not sure why you are a little angry about anyone questioning the validity of a TR quote. The internet is full of misinformation from unverified sources. In November we had an 'inside' source telling us that Baker was imminently signing a contract. They were just working out the details. there are a 1000 more examples like this. I like to see sources in print from reliable writers. I don't know you and you could be basically anyone. The other problem is that the specific quote could be changed. The words could/might can easily be rewritten as expected especially if expected was used elsewhere in the conversation. My guess is the quote was more like 'We really like Max. We expect him to have a very good season and he could move up to Ft Myers this year.' I can see one reason for pushing Max up to Ft Myers. I think Ft Myers has been his home since he signed at age 16. I think he moved there with at least one parent and finished HS while going to the Twins training complex.

That's correct. I will still receive $200/mo at some ungodly high retirement age for working at Ford Motor Company for 3.5 yrs (non-union). Mr Brooks is right though. The financial IQ of workers in the US is unbelievably low. The workers that could get hurt are those with no significant savings outside of the MLB pension plan and social security. Sadly people don't think ahead.

Is there a source for this? Or is this a 'I heard from a guy that heard from a guy' comment?

A lot of this Deduno talk was also said about Blackburn in 2009 at the all-star break. He had a 3.00 ERA and possessed this magical ability to induce weak contact. Of course he didn't have the ability to actually miss bats. He had also shut down a few teams at 'clutch' times and was regarded by some as a big game pitcher. He will get his chance this season because the other options suck also and I think he makes a great story but I have no expectations of success from him.

They still get a pension.

This is not a union vs non union issue. MLB is taking away pensions earned in the past. It is simply choosing to further fund 401K's instead of a pension in the future. If I ran a business there would be absolutely no way that I would include a pension plan. It's a scary business model and I definitely don't fault MLB for switching to a 401K. Unions had their place and were instrumental in significant improvements in workers in the early 20th century but they abused their power. The UAW and some of their workers took things to absolutely ridiculous levels.

I'm also lukewarm on Deduno but unless Hendriks shows something Deduno should be ahead of him. Unfortunately with Diamond needing extra time Deduno is only the #4 and the Twins still need 1 more starter although that guy can get skipped once or twice in the first month. Even worse is that Correia is the guy ahead of deduno... If Pelfrey also needs more time then it's really scary.

I think the HR's will be there but I'm unsure about the BA/OBP and defense part of the equation. I'm cautiously optimistic that the Twins have found a .750+ OPS 3Bman to hold down the fort for awhile.

I'll drift between halfway active and inactive here but there are some really good people here also. I have no interest in another fantasy league. I'm probably going to be riding a bicycle around for a majority of the next two summers and I can barely manage one (awesome) team doing that. There's some good baseball people at the fantasybaseballcafe that I visit with some. Good analysis for the most part.

If Benson shows that he can hit anywhere he will certainly get his chance. So far he hasn't hit in spring training or last year. He has some skills and I really want to pull for the guy but my expectations are not that high. I also think it will be tough to promote Benson over Arcia at midseason so it would take two moves/injuries for Benson to get a shot.

There a lot of interesting guys but they all have low floors. As an example I think Machado will struggle this year before becoming the player we expect. I could easily see a .260 avg with 15 HR and 10SB (or worse). Mous could easily repeat last year. I would like to get a steadier player 3Bman and take a flier on one of these upside guys as an extra hitter. I just don't feel comfortable with any of them as a starter.

And if Benson is going to Rochester then Hicks almost has to be up with the Twins as a starter. The only option that I can see as backup OF'er is Boggs and he isn't that good. It's very likely that backup OF'er is playing 3-4 times/wk even if he's not the starter. Mauer/Morneau/Doumit/Willy can always use days off in addition to giving Parmelee or Hicks a day off occasionally. That's why Boggs/Benson are poor options as the 4th Of'er imo. I also think the Twins have boxed themselves into a corner. They have promoted Hicks enough and he has had a good spring. He almost needs to be on the opening day roster imo.

Dickey is not in my top 20 SP'ers. the K rate was a fluke and I do not trust him. Darvish has to at least be ranked. I think we'll see some improvements in your list of negatives that's coming. I'm also avoiding Jered Weaver that high. His K rate is dropping like a rock. I'm a little more skeptical of goldy than most but he should be in the Freeman to Craig tier. Same goes for Rizzo. I'm okay with moving Konerko and trumbo out of the top 10. Drafting strategy this year: Wait until the mid rounds for a catcher. Get a 2nd baseman early because it gets really ugly fast Get a 3Bman in the top 7-8 rds. Several good ones are available but it drops off quite a bit at that point.

He actually likes RP'ers since he ranked 6 in his Twins top 23 (from #12 to #23). I think he's just down on May and falling back on relieving isn't enough to keep someone in the top 150. I think he's also a little down on Buxton despite lowering his ranking due to only appearing in rk ball. Buxton ranked lower than Correa, Russell, Puig (14 A ball games) and Soler (20 A ball games). I think that puts buxton 5th among 2012 draftees. Buxton still outranks the rest of the top HS draftees including Dahl, Stephenson (8 A ball GS), Fried and Almora. And most of these guys got ranked higher on other lists (ranking wise) due to tearing up rk ball.

Two bones to pick in this thread regarding Mauer's not swinging the bat in crucial situations. He has a career .873 OPS and a .959 OPS with RISP. that is partly inflated due to getting IBB almost 100 times but his BA and SLG are also better with RISP. I also disagree with the WBC example. He had Giancarlo Stanton hitting behind him. There is absolutely nothing wrong with working a BB in front of one of the best young hitters in baseball that almost never GIDP. Yes, it would be great if he was a little more aggressive at the plate but this is a luxury that a #3 hitter has. In that case he was an extra base runner for Stanton. On the Twins he's an extra base runner for Willy and Morneau. If anything this shows great leadership to the young players. It shows that they can work a BB instead of swinging at balls in the dirt or taking big hacks. It also shows that he believes in his teammates.

I'm not sure if bothers fact checking but Dougie glove only hit 3rd (or higher) in 61% of his PA's in these heavily debated seasons. Unexpectedly his RS% didn't change a lot moving from the #3 to the #6 spots in the lineup. I also checked Luis Rivas and he scored about 42% of the time he was on base (not taking into account FC and E's). It's possible that Gardy has been using these advanced sabr stats all along. I'm still in the camp that would like to see the <.320 OBP speedy guy hitting in the #8 and #9 spot than the #9 and #2 spots. The reasoning is that I want each of the better hitters (Mauer, Willy, Morneau) to get the extra plate appearances.

The problem is that Benson is having a terrible spring also. It's difficult to call it a competition if the winner is the worst performer. Benson should also get full time ABs.

Swisher has played 148+ games every season w/o any down years (the CHW year was a little iffy) and can play 1B and OF. Morneau carries too much injury risk imo to get a long contract. He also has to get rid of the can't hit lefties tag that he developed last season. It's possible that he puts up a .900 OPS and does gain some interest as a FA but I'm not even that optimistic about him.

The problem with sending him down is that there really isn't a good backup if Mastro is starting. Parmelee might be starting in right but Mauer/Morneau/Doumit/Willy will get their days off. It's either Boggs or Benson starting on their days off or when they get dinged up (the non-DL inactive list).

Part of the problem with using 2001 as a cut date is that int'l FA's signed that year are still only about 28. HS draftees have just hit 30. Most of the HS/int'l pool in the >2001 period doesn't show up in your list because they haven't hit their peak yet. This is also true of later rd picks. They don't move through the minors as fast and typically debut later. This skews your post 2001 acquisition conclusions imo to college players drafted early. A player might appear on your overall list but you eliminated them (only 1 top season) from your analysis so I only consider your short list since that is what you have analyzed. I guess I didn't say it but part of the reason I expanded the list was to include a bigger cut of top of the rotation arms. They don't have to be absolute stud aces but the guys that you want on the mound in big games. I can see trends with 25 names that I can't see with 8 names.

Trading Morneau even at the deadline still only makes sense if there is actually something decent coming back. The Twins have enough PR problems with fans (losing and cutting payroll) to just dump him. And I think the return would be underwhelming for Morneau. I'm not really against offering Morneau a tender at about 14M. There's payroll room and he's a fan favorite. At that point Morneau would be trapped since it's very unlikely that a team would give up a 1st rd pick and sign him to a multiyear deal. Parmelee has nearly zero trade value after his long and mediocre MiLB career. Doumit doesn't have much trade value but that could change. If there's a good offer out there then it makes sense to trade him. Willingham currently has fairly good trade value and he would be my top priority to trade this summer.

I would consider expanding the list further because a sample size of 8 is too small to draw any conclusions. Here is a list of the top 25 ranked(smoltz and Pettitte excluded) by ERA- (fangraphs). 600 inning min (2005-2012). Summary - No big surprises here. if you want a potential ace then either you have the #1 (maybe #2) pick and get an elite college arm (not available this year) or you take your chances with a HS 1st rd'er. Big bonus int'l FA's are poor investments (as starters, RPers are different story). It is interesting how many aces were late rd picks from 1999-2002. One additional conclusion is that it's unlikely that the college arms after Appel and Manaea can be considered potential 1-2 starters. Most likely #3's. Even Appel and Manaea are unlikely to be #1 and probably not #2's. The same is true of Zimmer and Gausman last year. 1st 2 rds and HS - 7 - notice how most of these are late 1st rd'ers Kershaw 1-7 (2006) - HS Carpenter 1-15 (1993) - HS Halladay 1-17 (1995) - HS Hamels 1-17 (2002) - HS CC 1-20 (98) - HS Cain 1-25 (2002) - HS Wainwright 1-29 (2002) - HS 1st rd college players - 5 - Price and Verlander (and Strasburg) were considered BPA in their drafts and there isn't a comparable college arm out there this year. Price 1-1(2007) - UNI Verlander 1-2 (2004) - UNI Lincecum 1-10 (2006) - UNI Sheets 1-10 (1999) - uni Weaver 1-12 (2004) - UNI late rd college players - 7 Haren rd2 (2001) - uni Hudson rd6 (1997) - UNI Harden rd 17 (2000) - uni Wilson rd5 (2001) - uni Webb rd 8 (2000) - UNI Lee rd4 (2000) - UNI Oswalt rd 23 (1996) - (CC) late rd HS'ers - 3 - I'm not sure if any of these were overslot big bonus picks though Lester rd2 (2002) - HS JJohnson rd4 (2002) - HS Peavy rd 15 (1999) - HS International arms - 3 Felix - int'l FA (big bonus) - ('02) Santana int'l FA (low bonus) (95) Cueto int'l FA (2005) - small bonus I think

tonkin was an overslot pick.