kab21
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Everything posted by kab21
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http://bleacherreport.com/articles/725723-2011-mlb-draft-why-francisco-lindor-was-right-pick-for-the-cleveland-indians This is a very similar draft profile to Gordon. Making an argument based on guys like Goodrum, Polanco, Michael, Plouffe, Dozier or anybody else that has been moved from the position is not related to Gordon at all. Pretty much every Twins example (and most of the MLB examples) that have been mentioned have scouting reports that mention defensive question marks. I have not found one scouting report that remotely suggests Gordon has the potential to move. Lindor is now the #13 prospect in baseball. He's not there because he's going to be a middle of the order hitter. He's going to hit well and he's a lock to stay at SS. There should be no doubt that Gordon has significant upside.
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Last year was an incredible year for Cedar Rapids with so much talent. This year there isn't much prospect talent but they still are interesting to watch.
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I have no idea why you continue to compare Gordon versus terrible comparables. You can't say that player X, Y and Z didn't stick so neither can player G. There were doubts that Michael could stay at SS on draft day. They thought he might stay at SS but most thought he was destined for 2B. As far as Polanco there is a singular reason that he isn't likely to stick and it's is his arm strength. This is not an issue for Gordon and scouts have expressed almost no doubts that he can stay at SS. If you want to make an argument against Gordon then it needs to be based on something else instead lowering his status because of defensive concerns. In fact you should almost be giving extra points just because he is almost a lock to stick at SS since you have been so good at pointing out how many SS prospects have to move. I have him behind Alex Jackson and the 3 big arms. I could also be talked into a lottery pick like Touki or a guy like Newcomb among others. http://www.twinkietown.com/2011/6/6/2210383/minnesota-twins-select-levi-michael-in-first-round-of-2011-mlb-draft
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Peoples expectations at SS are clearly too high if a .730 OPS is mediocre. Andrus has a .685 OPS. The 5th best qualified SS in baseball last year had a .738 OPS. The overall MLB average was a .680 OPS. If Gordon was merely a .730 OPS guy then he would be an occasional all star. Strangely that's exactly what you want. Personally I have his ceiling in the .290/.350/.440/.790 range. That is an almost every year all star.
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Jorge was sitting at 88-89 last week in relief when I saw a game. Between him and Eades it was a pretty disappointing night for pitching. Eades had an overpowering fastball for the low A hitters but I'm not sure if he made one hitter look foolish with a breaking pitch or changeup. I'm very excited about Lewis Thorpe.
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Additionally what happens if he dominates the minors with a devastating slider and an okay fastball. Garza did this to an extent with his fastball and it took years for teams to get him to offspeed stuff effectively.
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Polanco is still a defensive wizard. The problem is that he has a fringy arm for a SS. There are usually two reasons why SS prospects move off of SS in the minors. One is arm strength and the other is physical size although there are quite a few fairly large SS's. Gordon has a cannon for an arm and he's not expected to get bulky at all (Beckham comparison ruined). He will fill out a little but he should remain more than agile enough for the position.
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His low K rate is worth noting but not worth being overly concerned about. I wish I would have gotten to see Kohl last week but I saw Eades instead. IIRC in Taillon's 2nd year they took away his breaking ball and his K rate dropped to about where Stewart's is right now and he started K'ing hitters again. The other thing to note is that Stewart had an awful K rate in his first 3 games and it's been mostly better since then and I wouldn't be surprised to see it climb a little as the season goes on. I wouldn't be shocked if it was in the the 8-9 k/9 range for the rest of the season. And aside from one game Stewart has done well with BB's. My optimism about Stewart is down perhaps 10% but it's early enough that could easily change.
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This is a team that stuck with Plouffe forever at SS despite his defensive liabilities. Polanco is not considered a likely SS due to his arm and pretty much only his arm. Gordon has the agility and most definitely the arm to stick at SS. It might happen that he moves but it should not receive a heavy weighting in his draft status.
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I think we are going to look back and see that Myers was a bit overrated. He carried certainty but is probably more destined to be a Cuddyer level player than an elite player. That type of player is obtainable using other avenues (trades or FA). Shields has been outstanding this year and last regardless of what a particular WAR stat told you. And most importantly he doesn't have zero future value to the Royals. He is going to be one of the most sought after deadline trade options or certainly a comp pick. That won't equal Myers but it certainly has value. This trade should only be an example of what not to do because the Royals overpaid in the trade to start with and Shields was only signed for 2 years. Rebuilding teams should be looking at spinning off prospects for good veterans preferably with 3+ yrs before FA. For example the Garza trade worked well for the Cubs. They traded Hak Ju Lee and Archer for Garza 3+ yrs ago and got back Edwards and Olt. Garza was a very good pitcher and Archer is finally providing some value while and it could be a couple more years until Lee does anything. Or you could look at the Gio Gonzalez trade.
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Article: What to do with Kurt Suzuki?
kab21 replied to Eric R Pleiss's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
here's a frame of reference for what the Twins would be getting back. He's been traded for Dakota Bacus and David Freitas at the midseason. And most likely it would mean that Fryer was getting regular playing time. I would not be happy if the Twins traded him for a mediocre prospect and then played Fryer as a backup catcher. -
Try coming up with an extra 600K-1M using these methods. That's what they need to find to sign some of these overslot HS'ers.
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But many are dismissing the big long term problem. He can't hit currently and if that doesn't improve then he's not a major leaguer regardless of how many walks he takes. And the even bigger issue is that he has a .512 OPS against RHP's (.566 last year). This is still a small MLB sample size but this was an issue throughout the minors and I'm not sure how anyone could be optimistic that he will be anything more than platoon/4th OF'er at this point. It could happen but there is significant work to be done and ideally it would be done at AAA regardless of his recent nice 46 PA sample size.
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25 pts of wOBA is really big actually. I think people have unrealistic expectations of how well starting and backup catchers hit in the MLB. A 90 wRC (2011) is actually pretty solid for a catcher. It would be a low end starter or great backup but when the next option behind Pinto is a 50-60 wRC type then Suzuki is pretty important even if he's only a 200 PA guy for the Twins.
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The problem is that you need to pay them top 15 or top 20 money or else they usually go to college. With the new slotting system that means that the Twins need to go a lot underslot with their first pick.
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Big difference in what you are actually talking about. It's easy to tell a guy to swing more but it's not easy teach a guy to hit the ball (what Hicks isn't doing). Right now people are cherry picking his stats and giving him points for keeping the bat on his shoulder like a scared little leaguer and he isn't squaring up the ball often. He still has raw tools that could produce a solid MLB'er but I'm not that optimistic.
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This is basically exactly what I said in the last sentence (conclusion) of the paragraph that you quoted.
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And not even the Yankees were able to sign Cole that year.
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I don't get it. Junior Ortiz had a .600 career OPS while Suzuki's career line is .690. Locking up a .600 career OPS hitter is a huge mistake (like you say). Locking up a catcher with .700ish line for 4-5M/yr for 1-2 more years is not a huge mistake. Especially when the depth behind Pinto/Suzuki would make Junior Ortiz look like a good hitter. Nobody is saying that they should approach Suzuki tomorrow about an extension but this is something that should be done in the 2nd half of the season.
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Yastrzemski - I'm not even sure if I'm correct now. Only 82 and my biggest (recent) miss was Brett.
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Your expectations are too high. Revere was a late rd pick that is at worst a below average MLB'er. His BA will rebound and this hating on him will cease. And he netted the Twins a solid pitching prospect and a guy that should have been a solid starter. That is a pretty good return for a late rd pick but the fundamental flaw is that the pick lacks upside beyond that of average regular. As far as Rams goes he was almost pick 100. These guys usually don't work out and he had some solid upside.
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Radke - 4.22 career ERA Beckett - 3.91 career ERA I don't understand how Radke was clearly the better pitcher with better results. More consistent - yes but not better. In addition when Beckett was on he was an ace.
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46 PA's.
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You exaggerate greatly. He has pitched in 15 games and had zero walks in in 12 of them. Your 'typical' game consists of one game where that happened. Despite striking out batters in the minors Tonkin isn't K'ing batters and he also has a pathetically low swstr%. He certainly hasn't been very good and I won't lose any sleep with him tweaking things in AAA.
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His tools always rated highly in the minors but there were still comments about creative routes that he made up for with his speed. He wasn't polished defensively and he's still more defensive tools than skill. Ideally the Twins would be in a position to stash Hicks (and possibly even Arcia) in AAA for a year. He's a complete mess offensively regardless of his decent OBP.