Thrylos

One more thing because it is getting to be a pet peeve: How many "generational talents" can you have in a generation? 1, 2, 5, 50? I'd take Kershaw, Trout, Harper (and potentially a few more, with Sano knocking on the door) in this conversation for the current generation. If that number gets to how many, some of them are not "generational talents"?

When I am looking at term like "regression", I'd like to look at data that might so deviation to begin with. Here is some of that for the Twins, and their closest AL Central opponents: Pitching: Twins: 4.80 FIP - 4.31 ERA, Indians: 3.52 FIP - 3.98 ERA, Tigers: 4.57 FIP - 4.77 ERA Twins: 72/7% LOB, 12.2% HR/FB, .269 BABIP Indians: 73.9% LOB, 14.3% HR/FB, .308 BABIP Tigers: 71.2% LOB, 12.3% HR/FB, .306 BABIP Hitting: Twins: .282 BABIP, Tigers: .294 BABIP, Indians: .278 How I would interpret that? Regression as far as hitting is not much of an issue (if anything players like Polanco and Buxton are likely to improve.) As far as pitching goes, it is obvious that Santana and Santiaga (other than his last outing) have been playing over their heads, the bullpen is made out of band-aides and spit and Kintzler has a pact with the devil (or something.) But, I hope that Berrios continuous where he starts to provide a serviceable number 2 behind Santana (at this point) and the one of Mejia (.360 BABIP) or Gibson (.359) rebounds (regresses? ) . That is hopeful likely possible. The pen is a bigger story and the Twins need 2-3 late inning arms to keep it up, whether they come within the organization (Bard, Burdi, Chargois, Melotakis, etc) or outside. But, I'd take first place any day

The issue I have with the reported Greene's ceiling is that it is "calculated" based on his fastball and "athleticism". The last is not a huge difference maker in baseball, esp. for pitchers. I'd put mechanics over athleticism all day (and night.) His mechanics are dubious at this point. Same with a fastball. Heard some reports that it "can use a bit more movement". If that is the case, it is pretty scary, because, what you can blow past a Private Religious High School player, you likely cannot blow by an average A class player. And looking at Greene's stats he is "dominant" (48 K per 106 batters faced, 12.2 per 9), but not dominant (18 H + 4 BB per 28 IP, = 0.785 WHIP,) based on the level of competition. For comparison purposes, Brendan McKay has 0.810 WHIP against major conference opponents this season. 100 mph fastball or not. Strikeouts or not (and McKay is striking out 12.4 per 9, a number higher than Greene's.) Let that sink for a while: McKay is about as effective against College hitters and is Greene against Private High School hitters. Plus McKay has 2 other above average pitches (one plus) that Greene does not have. So, if Greene were to go to College and kept his effectiveness rate up, in 4 years he would be about as effective as McKay in getting hitters out, strikeouts or not, 100 mph fastball or not. For me the choice as is right now, is pretty simple. I did a bit of analysis last week here, comparing the top 4 College pitchers and ranked them, based on their objective numbers as well as subjective "scouting" rankings. The results are very clear. The one factor that was not taken into consideration is sign-ability or how much a bonus they might require, but still... I know that Greene is a great athlete, a great story, has an 100 mph fastball and can strike high school kids out, but I'd rather go with the guy who can get College kids out (and even with strikeouts) at the same rate... And he is a lefty.

Ranking Buxton over Sano before they played a single MLB game was questionable. Ranking Buxton over Sano right now is ridiculous. If "baseball" thinks that Buxton has so much value, the Twins should sell high ASAP.

Do you remember Tom Windle and Mitch Brown? The last 2 MN pitchers with a lot of helium before the draft. Windle from the U and Brown from Rochester HS. Both drafted in the second round, and the local media were disappointed because "they should have been drafted higher.". Where are they now today? Windle just started the season at AA Reading (down the road from me), after making the transition to the pen his third season as a pro, in 2015. Second organization. Has difficulties throwing strikes and his numbers are pretty horrible (9some ERA, 1.600ish WHIP). Likely will get demoted to A+ as a 25 year old. Mitch Brown, who is 23, after a career ERA close to 5 as a starter, made the transition to the pen this season in AA and has been ok so far (2.50 ish ERA, 1.200 ish WHIP), but nothing special. Other than Brown the only MN Prep pitcher who was drafted in the second round was Brad Hand (also hyped by the local media as a first round talent) in 2008. 2.8 Career WAR, 2.6 of it coming the last 2 seasons as a reliever. He seems like a good set-up guy at 27. After 10 years pro career. The level of player competition is incredible huge in judging draftees, and especially pitchers (that's part of the reason I have huge issues with the Twins drafting Greene 1st overall btw,). The fact is that the level of competition in MN High School (and College) is low. I don't know how Carlson compares to Winkle and Brown (and Hand 10 years ago.) But I think that the Twins should be cautious looking at their own back yard for talent in the top rounds, because it has not proven fertile enough, because of the level of competition.

That's horrible.

It was not so apparent to me. He was hurt in 2015, and was the Twins' second best pitcher in 2016. Looking quickly in 2016, he started 21 games with the Twins. His game score was > 50 (average) in 10 of them, about half. In 3 games he pitched into the 8th inning, in 6 into the 7th, in 8 into the 6th, and only in 2 games he did not make it into the 5th. He was not the biggest problem last season. I would not doubt that there were "acclimation" issues and potentially difficulties between him and the coaches, due to different backgrounds; but I would get rid of the coaches before Nolasco in that horrible team, esp. that pitching coach... Believe it or not, he was not that bad. He was an average number 3-4 starter for the Twins, who got plagued, among other things, by a .330 BABIP, 62.8 % LOB% and a horrible team. I suspect that at some point he became uninterested as well...

Not sure where you found those stats, but since the trade: Nolasco: ERA+ 110, 1.8 bWAR Santiago: ERA+ 87, 0.9 bWAR

I think that you are forgetting something It was not a Meyer for Santiago trade. Here are the numbers of the people who were involved since the trade: With Angels: Nolasco: 3.64 ERA, 3.87 FIP, 1.154 WHIP, 7 K/9, 2 BB/9 Meyer: 5.59 ERA, 4.53 FIP, 1.466 WHIP, 9.9 K/9, 5.9 BB/9 $ With Twins: Santiago: 4.82 ERA, 5.36 FIP, 1.364 WHIP, 5.8 K/9, 3.4 BB/9 Busenitz: AAA Based on Nolasco's performance alone, this trade is a loss for the Twins. Based on the fact that they paid to get a lesser pitcher, it is a disaster. So far. If Meyer develops to be better than Busentiz (what are the chances of that? ), it could very well end up being one of the worst trades in Franchise history

Pedro Martinez was also working out with Presinal. Was he a user? Or association proves guilt? Again: Can you prove that Ortiz used PEDs? Put up or shut up...

Here is what the commissioner of baseball, had to say about "that PED" stuff, regarding Ortiz. Those are the facts about the 2003 testing. The rest are a witch hunt by either people who cannot hold Kelly and Ryan accountable for what they did to Ortiz while with the Twins and what they did to the Twins by getting rid of Ortiz, or Yankee's fans (it is not a coincidence that a. 2 out of the only 4 names among the 103 positives and false positives of the 2003 test were Boston Red Sox and b. the leak happened by a New York reporter.) The facts are that Ortiz has never failed an MLB drug test, and according to the commissioner nobody can be sure whether his positive in 2003 in the survey testing was false or not. But, of course, the Twins and TK and TR can do "no wrong" and Ortiz is the wrong party here, because he did drugs...

Can you prove that Ortiz used PEDs in Boston in 2006? Put up or shut up... How do you feel about Ervin Santana, btw?

Irrelevant. Those other DHs were not with the Twins. Compare him to the player who Tom Kelly and Terry Ryan chose to keep over David Ortiz: Matt LeCroy. How do they compare? Can you imagine the Twins with Ortiz instead of what's his face as their DH in the 2006 post-season?

Kelly was playing for the Twins (actually their AAA affiliate, the Mudhens back then) until and including the 1978 season. In 1979 he became the manager of the Visalia Oaks (the Twins A affiliate) and stayed there until 1980. In 1981 and 1982 he managed the AA Orlando Twins. Hrbek was drafted in 1978, played in Elizabethton (Rk) in 1979, Wisconsin Rapids (A) in 1980, and Visalia in 1981 (Dick Phillips was the manager) before getting called up to the Twins in September of that year for good. Gaetti Was drafted in 1979, played for Elizabethton in 1979, Wisconsin Rapids in 1980, and Orlando (where Kelly was the manager) in 1981, before called up in September for good, like Hrbek So, Kelly managed Gaetti for a single season in AA, and never managed Hrbek before he was established. He might have thrown a ball or two to him at ST, that's about it. No formal Instructional League back then, but I suspect that the Twins brought some of their younger players in Orlando (their ST home at the time) and Kelly as the Orlando manager for 2 seasons was likely around. Not sure whether Hrbek or Gaetti were there. To say that Kelly was crucial in developing either of them is a hyperbole...

That has been a problem. The best pens have 2-3 good veterans (the Twins have none) and rotate a bunch of younger players with options to the minors and they stick when hot, and go down when they cool off. The Twins have been having problems getting the concept of using the whole 40-man roster and not wasting spots for never had been veterans. Re this: If you get a new hat, you don't get a new head. Or new brains. Other than the very top, there is nothing "new" with this Front Office.

I'd argue that: a. there are more advanced RHB in AA than in AAA and b. his 0.84 ERA, 0.66 WHIP, and 25% K% against RHB, even though early in the season, makes me think that he is ok against them.

Not sure how much of it was Kelly or Ryan, but with that duo on the lead the Twins won nothing. So that's that. MacPhail surrounded younger players (Erickson, Knoblauch) with veterans and they succeeded. After MacPhail left, Ryan surrounded younger players with Minnesotan-born had beens and cheap bad veterans and they were not in position to succeed, and they did not succeed. In the late 90s, Kelly was a super grouch. And it was very true that he was whining about the lack of veterans on the club and he, like his successor, was partial with "his boys" and not very open to playing young people. That was pretty much a fact, and Ortiz, who was there, btw, and knows a thing or two more than us, got it right 100%, based on Kelly's public behavior and quotes back then. The Twins did have some young good talent (Cordova, Walker, Mahomes, Serafini, Stahoviak etc) and other than Radke, they failed to develop it in the Kelly/Ryan years. Again, how much of that was Kelly and how much of that was Ryan, may be debatable, but it is a fact. And Ortiz should know. He was a victim. Also: Kelly had nothing to do with developing Hrbek & Gaetti. Hrbek was in the majors in Sept. 1981 and Kelly was managing the A level Visalia Oaks. They spent one year together. Gaetti was in the majors also in 1981 and never was managed by Kelly before he became the Twins' manager.

Would love to see the objective criteria that would be used to include Arrieta, Greinke, Kluber and Verlander as Aces, but will exclude players like Syndergaard and Strasburg. So what is this list based on? Subjective personal preference?

Duluth is too small for a AAA team. AAA teams are in metro areas of about a million people or so. Think State capitals that do not have an MLB team. Even some of those (eg. Charleston WV) are big enough for only a AA team. Or other big metro areas in large states. For Example, the Rochester (NY) Metro is about 1,110,000 people right now. Duluth might be big enough to support an A team, if that. So you are looking at a Midwest League team, like Cedar Rapids.

Not really. About 1/3 of their roster are people with no affiliate baseball experience Just looking at the former Twins: Nate Hanson & Tony Thomas = Older organization fillers with no future in affiliated ball other than someone needing bodies later in the season Tanner Vavra = bombed in A ball and would had not made it there, if his last name was not Vavra and he was not in the Twins' organization Corey Williams = Great College story, great pro potential, just could not make it in AA Mark Hamburger = Do they test for use of herbs in the Independent Leagues? The funnest part about Independent Leagues is when they sign over the hill had beens. Rickey Henderson, Jose Canseco, Darryl Strawberry, etc. Those people sell tickets (and autographs) The level of competition is just a tad above the younger NABA age groups. I really do not mind the Saints. What I mind is that they are potentially taking butts off the seats from my favorite MLB team, and as a Twins' fans, I'd rather see them play somewhere else.

I get it. I do get it and I do enjoy minor league games with my kids. But I am a Twins' fan. Which means to me that if I had the choice (which I do not really do) I would watch a Twins' game vs. an independent (or minor) league game, in season. Saints prey on people who like baseball and do not consider themselves enough of Twins' fans to go and watch the Twins instead. Lots of the "experience" crowd. But heck, if the Twins are in town, there is a game at TF and someone goes and watches the Saints play instead, unless their kin is on the game, he/she should not consider themselves a Twins' fan. That. Simple. Pretty sure that the economics are such that the Twin Cities cannot support both the Twins and a AAA team and the butts on the seats in the AAA will take away profits (aka $ that can be used to get better players and build better teams and win) from the parent team. I don't even think that Rochester (MN) might be a decent enough place for that. Too. Close. Bottom line: If you are a Twins fan, you go and watch the Twins regardless of the existence of the Saints, and, unfortunately, the Saints take away $ that would have gone to the Twins (or even the U of M or other school or City ball) from the casual baseball fans who want to watch baseball and do not care about the Twins enough.

aka "Let's not risk injury until his next MLB start" List

Watched Paulsen a week ago today. He was pressing and physically and verbally upset when he was not getting hits. With Park being activated, he lost his DH spot. Nothing much you can do with a 30 year old who is not performing in AAA. Lots of that AAA career slash line (other than this season) was at Colorado Springs that has a ballpark even more prone to inflated numbers than Denver...

Memo to Maddon: a. All rules in baseball are fabricated. No natural rules in baseball. All outs in baseball are rewarded (sic) based on fabricated rules. b. Quit whining because the world will start realize that you are a sore loser.

I'd let The Who answer for me. This is not a "new FO". Yet. Just the head changed. Will be a new FO after this evaluation season, and then we can really evaluate the "new FO".