Thrylos

Nope. Happ has a 91-94 mph FB and he is not a junk thrower. Irrelevant, really. My question was whether he would make it in the rotation of Mets, Royals, Cubs, Jays in the 2015 post-season. If the answer is no, he should be non-tendered.

Indeed

When I look at that list, if I was running a competing team would like to ask myself whether any of the teams that made it to the League Championship Series, would have any of those players on their 25 man rosters, in their rotations/pens/bench etc in the post-season. I'd say that nobody would have Milone in their rotation, Fien in their pen in the post-season. Nunez maybe, but for an NL team... So, because I want the Twins to behave like Champions, Milone and Fien should be non-tendered and depending on the options they have, the same with Nunez... They can do better than Milone, Fien and Nunez.

No surprises at all here. I guess the amount and length of contract, including the option 3 weeks ago down to $500K. To be fair, you have to consider the $12.8M as part of the cost for the Twins, which brings up their annual bill for Part at close to $7M a season. More details here, but since he is practically replacing Hunter from the 2015 squad, they save about $3.5M and realistically in the years 2-4 (at least), he is replacing Plouffe who will make close to what Hunter made, if he matches those performances, the Twins will be ahead. I think that he can do better than what Hunter and Plouffe did last season....

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch ------ After the Twins traded Aaron Hicks to the New York Yankees for JR Murphy, there was an assumption that Byron Buxton was de facto handed the Centerfield job to start the season. For the ones who have seen Buxton's close personal battles with breaking balls, this was not a welcome sign. Additionally, Eddie Rosario, has played Centerfield for most of his career, and there was some talk that Danny Santana, who has no business playing the OF, might be tested as a potential backup, or even starter, in case Byron Buxton is still swatting at curveballs in the dirt as if the were the State Bird of Minnesota. Today, thankfully, the Twins took one step in amending those crazy thoughts, by signing Joe Benson to minor league deal. Yes, that Joe Benson, the Twins' second round draft pick in 2006, who put up a .259/.343/.538 slash line with 27 HRs and 19 SBs in 2010 between New Britain and Fort Myers and exclamated it with great body defying defense in the Centerfield. In 2011 he was hitting .285/.388/.495 in June in New Britain with 16 HRs and 13 SBs, when he had a left knee surgery (meniscus) and was not the same, even though he was awarded with a September callup to the Twins. In 2012 he broke his hamate (wrist) in May, which he surgically repaired and had an additional surgery in August, to clean up debris from his previous surgery. After that he went downhill with the bat. I saw him in 2013 play for Rochester and he was not the same guy. You can read that here, along with a very characteristic picture of him. That season he fought additional soreness to that left wrist and was sidelined for a month and a half with a pulled groin. Benson was signed with Miami before the 2014 season where he put a respectable .264/.364/.410, 10 HRs and 15 SB in 124 games, and more importantly finished his season healthy. In 2015 he signed with the Braves were he was released after 41 games in AAA Gwinnett where he hit .246/.346/.331. After 5 games in the Independent Leagues, he was picked up by the Mets who had him be Binghamton's (AA) starting Centerfielder. He hit .250/.355/.380 in 54 games and made plays like this: Benson is a no-risk/high reward signing and a potential great story to watch while he will be fighting for a job with the Twins in Spring Training of 2016. He needs to relax and have fun out there again, like he did in 2010 and 2011, instead of pressing himself to perform at his high level of expectations and get disappointed. That catch up there made a couple of months ago, makes me think that he can do it and finally the Twins' fans will see what made him twice a top 100 baseball prospect.

Thank you all for what you have done here.

Pitchers rarely win this award unless the spend the whole season in the majors. Even when their performance is at historic levels (for reference see 2006 AL ROY Award) So I don't think that Berrios will be close, unless he starts the season with the Twins, which, even though not impossible, I just don't see it happening. Regardless, since we don't even know who will be with the organization as a rookie yet, this conversation is at least 4 months premature. If the Twins acquire Steven Matz, for example, this list will look a lot different...

In 2012, Santana was pitching like Milone/Diamond. No.Thank.You.

Do you think that a guy with a line in the majors like the following is an elite reliever? 44 G, 51.1 IP, 65 K, 13 BB, 0.857 WHIP, 1.40 ERA, 11.4 K/9 average 94 mph FB, 88 mph cutter (+ curve and change) Phil Hughes' splits as a reliever when he set up for Rivera with the Yankees... If healthy, I'd flip May with Hughes in the rotation and have Hughes close for the Twins, with Perkins as the LH setup, Jepsen the RH setup, another lefty with mid 90s velocity, another righty with the same (those 2 were non in the 2015 squad, unless Pressly can fill that role) and let the rest fight for a spot in ST... Couple egos might get bruised, but it is about winning and not egos...

Pretty much the same way that does in the majors: If a player is not on the AAA roster and he is eligible, he can be drafted in the AAA Rule 5 draft, same with AA etc. Only difference with the majors is that the drafted player does not have to be added to the AAA roster (or AA etc)

No Think of it as analogous to % chance of making the big leagues for a prospect. >50% means that there is a better likelihood that they will get drafted than not, but a lot of things have to happen, including to fill a need for a particular team to get drafted. Wimmers is the most likely to get drafted, and the only one I will be surprised not to see drafted. There are a few more that are very likely to get drafted (Williams, Michael, Jones and Johnson), but they need to fill a need in a particular team to get drafted. e.g. someone in need of middle infield help might fill than need from inside their organization or with another eligible player than Michael. This does not mean that Michael could not fill than need at the MLB-level. Does it make sense? Potential risk, not a crystal ball...

Here (in about 4234 words)

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch ------ The Twins announced that they have added LHP Taylor Rogers, RHP JT Chargois, OF Adam Brett Walker, LHP Randy Rosario, RHP Yorman Landa, LHP Pat Dean, and LHP Mason Melotakis to their 40-man roster. This leaves 41 players unprotected. Here is a list of each of the unprotected players along with an risk analysis with the possibility that each player will get selected by another team: RHP Jose Abreu Age: 23 Height: 5' 11" Weight: 170 lb Highest Level: Rookie/Elizabethton Acquired: Dominican Free Agent 2015 Prospect Rank: NR; 23th in 2014 Last season: 17 G, 26.2 IP, 6.8 K/9, 4.4 BB/9, 3.71 ERA, 4.68 FIP, 1.39 WHIP, .272 BABIP Summary: Very raw player with control and command issues, but extremely tantalizing fastball with a lot of movement. Secondary pitches are work in progress and has declined last season after missing 2014 with Tommy John surgery. Interesting to see how he will bounce back. Highly Unlikely to be taken in the draft Risk %: 5% RHP Jason Adam Age: 24 Height: 6' 4" Weight: 225 lb Highest Level: AAA Acquired: Traded from the Kansas for Josh Willingham in 2014 2015 Prospect Rank: NR Last season: Did not play/recovering from surgery 2014 AAA/AA: 29 G, 19 GS, 120.1 IP, 7.7 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 4.71 ERA, 3.68 FIP, 1.41 WHIP, .345 BABIP Summary: Was the Royals' 9th prospect according to Baseball America when traded. Mid 90s plus fastball complemented with an above average curve and works in progress slider and changeup. Starter potential. Unlikely to be taken in the draft because of the risk of the postsurgery unknown, but definitely has upside Risk %: 30% RHP Nick Anderson Age: 25 Height: 6' 5" Weight: 195 lb Highest Level: A Acquired: Signed as a Free Agent from Independent Leagues in 2015 2015 Prospect Rank: NR Last season (A): 9 G, 0 GS, 12 IP, 9 K/9, 0 BB/9, 0.75 ERA, 2.73 FIP, 0.83 WHIP, .1945 BABIP Summary: Minnesotan. Recent Independent League signing. 97 mph Fastball, but 2 years too old for the league and not too great secondary stuff. Definitely a project. Was there for the taking by any team and was not. Unlikely that he would be taken in the draft, unless someone sees him as a MLB-level project Risk %: 15% RHP Luke Bard Age: 25 Height: 6' 3" Weight: 195 lb Highest Level: A+ Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 1st round (42 overall) in 2012 2015 Prospect Rank: NR Last season (A): 28 G, 0 GS, 52.1 IP, 8.1 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 2.41 ERA, 2.99 FIP, 1.15 WHIP, .303 BABIP Summary: Once (2012) the Twins' 10th best prospect according to Baseball America. One of the many relievers the Twins drafted in high rounds with the hope to turn into starters and ended up having Tommy John surgery. Bard was out all 2014 recoving. But has regressed in every level previously. Last season he was adequate at A ball, but 2 years older than the average player there. So far a dissapointment, and not sure that there will be any takers. Risk %: 10% RHP DJ Baxendale Age: 24 Height: 6' 2" Weight: 190 lb Highest Level: AA Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 10th round in 2012 2015 Prospect Rank: NR; highest: 15th in 2014 offseason. Last season (AA) : 23 G, 21 GS, 118.1 IP, 7 K/9, 3 BB/9, 3.80 ERA, 3.69 FIP, 1.40 WHIP, .317 BABIP Summary: Baxendale is all about Command and Control. If that works, he is great, if it does not, he is not. Repeated AA this season at an age a bit younger than average. His fastball has been hittable by more advanced hitters, and this has been his main problem. Cannot make it as a junk ball righty. Lots of potential there, and has some history as a reliever, but I don't think that it is enough for anyone to spend a 25 man roster spot on him. Risk %: 30% RHP Omar Bencomo Age: 26 Height: 6' 1" Weight: 170 lb Highest Level: A+ Acquired: Signed as a Free Agent from Independent Leagues in 2015 2015 Prospect Rank: NR Last season (A+) : 3 G, 3 GS, 18 IP, 2.5 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 1.50 ERA, 3.61 FIP, 0.90 WHIP, .196 BABIP Summary: Another one of the Twins' Independent League signings. Started 3 games at a 26 year old at Fort Myers. Organizational depth and more of a candidate for release than a risk to be drafted Risk %: 5% OF Edgar Corcino Age: 23 Height: 6' 1" Weight: 210 lb Highest Level: A Acquired: Signed as a Free Agent from Independent Leagues in 2014 2015 Prospect Rank: NR Last season (A) : .273/.340/.376; 373 PA, 4 HR, 9 SB, 34 BB, 91 K. Summary: Yet another one of the Twins' Independent League signings. Started 63 games as a RF and 17 as a CF for Cedar Rapids. Not a prospect and not MLB-ready Risk %: 15% RHP Sam Gibbons Age: 21 Height: 6' 4" Weight: 190 lb Highest Level: A Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent from Australia in 2011 2015 Prospect Rank: NR Last season (A) : 15 G, 15 GS, 90.1 IP, 6.8 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 2.89 ERA, 3.14 FIP, 1.185 WHIP, .196 BABIP Summary: Gibbons has been improving each season and jumping a level a season. High A ready, but not MLB-ready. Little risk of being taken in the MLB portion of the draft, might want to protect him in the minor league portion of the draft. Risk %: 25% RHP Miguel Gonzalez Age: 21 Height: 6' 1" Weight: 180 lb Highest Level: Rookie (GCL) Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent from Dominican Republic in 2011 2015 Prospect Rank: NR Last season (Rookie/GCL) : 15 G, 3 GS, 39.2 IP, 9.1 K/9, 1.6 BB/9, 1.59 ERA, 2.12 FIP, 0.981 WHIP, .271 BABIP Summary: Third time is the charm, since threepeating the GCL, Gonzalez have found himself, by improving his mechanics and control. Still very young. Little risk of being taken in the MLB portion of the draft, might want to protect him in the minor league portion of the draft. Risk %: 15% IF Niko Goodrum Age: 23 Height: 6' 3" Weight: 167 lb Highest Level: AA Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 2nd round of 2010 2015 Prospect Rank: NR; 27th in 2014 Last season (AA) : .244/.332/.392; 238 PA, 5 HR, 18 SB, 28 BB, 51 K. Summary: Goodrum is still young, but the expectations for the former second round draft pick have been higher than his performance so far. Declining performance at 3B, where he switch from SS, but adding CF to his repertoir and seeing more (and better defensively) games at SS in 2015. Someone might pick him up as a utility player/PR, but he is not ready to perform with his bat. Risk %: 35% 1B Bryan Haar Age: 25 Height: 6' 3" Weight: 215 lb Highest Level: A+ Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 34th round of 2012 2015 Prospect Rank: NR. Last season (A+) : .249/.317/.323; 284 PA, 1 HR, 1 SB, 21 BB, 61 K. Summary: Organizational depth at this point, and as a 25 year old in high A ball, he is more of a candidate to be cut than drafted. Risk %: 5% OF Travis Harrison Age: 23 Height: 6' 1" Weight: 215 lb Highest Level: AA Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 1st round (50th overall) of 2011 2015 Prospect Rank: 14th Last season (AA) : .240/.363/.356; 479 PA, 5 HR, 3 SB, 65 BB, 102 K. Summary: Harrison has been taken a step up in level every year in his professional career, but also has been taking a step back in performance. Last season was his worst so far as a pro. Still more than 2 years young in AA, he is in the top prospect conversation and he might be a season or two away from a breakthrough; however, he is not major league ready at this point and I cannot see someone drafting him, but the potential is there. Risk %: 40% 1B DJ Hicks Age: 25 Height: 6' 5" Weight: 245 lb Highest Level: AA Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 17th round of 2012 2015 Prospect Rank:NR, 2014: 24th Last season (AA) : .227/.320/.351; 259 PA, 6 HR, 1 SB, 32 BB, 66 K. Summary: Hicks' strongest tool is his power, and he has seen a drastic decline as he has been climbing minor league levels, something that he did with regularity. Bothered with injuries this season. It is unlikely that he will be drafted, he needs another good year to be MLB-ready. Risk %: 25% LHP David Hurlbut Age: 25 Height: 6' 3" Weight: 221 lb Highest Level: AAA (one game) Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 28th round of 2011 2015 Prospect Rank: NR Last season (A+/AA/AAA) : 20 G, 19 GS, 119 IP, 5.3 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 3.78 ERA, 3.67 FIP, 1.333 WHIP, .311 BABIP Summary: Hurlbut had a decent AA season, he is left-handed and a pitch to contact guy. Someone might think that converting him to a reliever might improve his numbers. As with any lefty, there are always some possibilities that someone will pull the trigger, but there are better options out there. Risk %: 45% RHP Cole Johnson Age: 27 Height: 6' 3" Weight: 200 lb Highest Level: AAA Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 44th round of 2011 2015 Prospect Rank: NR Last season (A+/AA/AAA) : 35 G, 0 GS, 52 IP, 8.3 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 3.18 ERA, 3.66 FIP, 1.404 WHIP, .331 BABIP Summary: Cole Johnson is MLB-ready. Heavy singer sitting at 89-92, good slider. Command of his fastball is crucial. Tale of 2 places season, better at AA than AAA. Might be due to the fact of game calling by catchers at AAA as well. Can be in a major league pen right now. Risk %: 70% RHP Zack Jones Age: 24 Height: 6' 1" Weight: 185 lb Highest Level: AA Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 4th round of 2012 2015 Prospect Rank: NR; 2014: 19th Last season (A+/AA) :45 G, 0 GS, 51.2 IP, 11.8 K/9, 4.9 BB/9, 4.53 ERA, 3.32 FIP, 1.277 WHIP, .288 BABIP Summary: Zach Jones is a fireballer with a major league 99 mph fastball, but with iffy control due to his mechanics (which have been the source of nagging injuries,) and an average slider that sometimes is much better than average, but it is an inconsistent pitch. Much better performance at Fort Myers than at Chatanooga. Still can strike people out and non contenders with pitching coaches who would love a challenge might wink at that heater. Risk %: 75% RHP Felix Jorge Age: 21 Height: 6' 2" Weight: 170 lb Highest Level: A Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent from Dominican Republic 2015 Prospect Rank: 29th Last season (A) :23 G, 22 GS, 142 IP, 7.2 K/9, 2 BB/9, 2.79 ERA, 3.54 FIP, 1.056 WHIP, .267 BABIP Summary: Jorge has 4 pitches that can be plus at different times. He just has not put it all together. Second time at Cedar Rapids (still at an age younger than league average) was better. Fastball used to live around 95 earlier in his career, but endurance had been an issue. This kid has a lot of potential. He is not major league ready by any means, but the Twins are betting nobody pulls a Santana on them. However someone might. Risk %: 50% OF Marcus Knecht Age: 25 Height: 6' 1" Weight: 200 lb Highest Level: AA Acquired: Signed as a Minor League free agent in 2015 2015 Prospect Rank:NR Last season (A+/AA) : .221/.320/.310; 465 PA, 2 HR, 15 SB, 51 BB, 103 K. Summary: The definition of organization depth. Not sure why the Twins re-signed him. Cannot see a team taking a chance for any reason Risk %: 2% LHP Brett Lee Age: 25 Height: 6' 4" Weight: 206 lb Highest Level: AA Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 10th round of 2011 2015 Prospect Rank: N/A Last season (A+/A) :22 G, 22 GS, 134 IP, 4.4 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 3.16 ERA, 3.62 FIP, 1.239 WHIP, .277 BABIP Summary: Even though Lee posted before average numbers, his stuff is pretty average, other than pitching to contact, which is his bread and butter. Very low strikeout and walk numbers, so his success (or lack of) would have to depend on his ability to induce ground balls. And he is not ready for the majors at this point. But he is a living and breathing lefty. On the other hand, there are better option for those as well... Risk %: 30% RHP Kuo-Hua Lo Age: 22 Height: 5'10" Weight: 195lb Highest Level: Rookie (Elizabethton) Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent from Taiwan 2015 Prospect Rank: N/A Last season (Rookie) :19 G, 0 GS, 31.1 IP, 12.4 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 1.44 ERA, 2.75 FIP, 0.734 WHIP, .213 BABIP Summary: Lo repeated the Appalachian League in his fourth season with the Twins and had remarkable success closing games. However he is 2 years older than the league average player and has faced players who grabbed a wooden bad for the first time in their lives. Might get himself into prospect conversations, but he is not close to being Major League ready Risk %: 10% C Joe Maloney Age: 25 Height: 6' 2" Weight: 190 lb Highest Level: A+ (in 2013) Acquired: Signed as an Independent League free agent this off-season 2015 Prospect Rank:NR Last season (IL) : .337/.432/.559; 433 PA, 14 HR, 18 SB, 57 BB, 106 K. Summary: Intriguing IL numbers last season, so the Twins took a chance on him. More about him here. Not the kind of player you draft on Rule 5 draft. Risk %: 5% IF Aderlin Mejia Age: 23 Height: 5'11" Weight: 170lb Highest Level: AA Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent for the Dominican Republic 2015 Prospect Rank:NR Last season (A+/AA) : .231/.313/.285; 305 PA, 1 HR, 7 SB, 34 BB, 37 K. Summary: Had some flashes in the past, but last season was his fourth season that he spent at least some part at Fort Myers. He is a fan favorite there, but a utility player. More of a release than a draft candidate. Risk %: 5% SS Heiker Meneses Age: 24 Height: 5'9" Weight: 200lb Highest Level: AAA (2014) Acquired: Signed as a Minor League Free Agent in 2015 2015 Prospect Rank:NR Last season (AA) : .259/.317/.300; 386 PA, 0 HR, 15 SB, 24 BB, 72 K. Summary: Re-signed by the Twins as a minor league free agent again this off-season. More about him here. Definitely there is some intrigue and potential, but not enough to get drafted Risk %: 25% 2B Levi Michael Age: 24 Height: 5'10" Weight: 180lb Highest Level: AA Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 1st round (30th overall) of 2011 2015 Prospect Rank: 22nd Last season (AA) : .267/.369/.434; 264 PA, 5 HR, 18 SB, 31 BB, 53 K. Summary: Never played below high A, was over-slotted and over-assigned when drafted. But he got better each and every season. Better than average defender after his move to second base, his challenge has been staying healthy. However second basement with .804 OPS in AA and excellent judgement of the strike zone do not grow on trees. The exact kind of player a team (especially in the National League) would not mind spending its last roster spot over. Risk %: 75% RHP Alex Muren Age: 24 Height: 6'3" Weight: 200 lb Highest Level: AA Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 12th round of 2012 2015 Prospect Rank: N/A Last season (A+/AA) :44 G, 0 GS, 71.1 IP, 6.8 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 3.53 ERA, 3.23 FIP, 1.206 WHIP, .273 BABIP Summary: Muren is organizational depth at this point. He does have his moments but are not enough for someone to draft him. Risk %: 10% C Carlos Paulino Age: 26 Height: 6'0" Weight: 175lb Highest Level: AAA Acquired: Singed as a Minor League Free Agent in 2015 2015 Prospect Rank:NR Last season (AA/AAA) : .262/.328/.337; 193 PA, 0 HR, 0 SB, 17 BB, 15 K. Summary: Re-signed by the Twins as a minor league free agent again this off-season. Despite being the Twins' de facto number 3 in depth catcher as of today, he does not fit the profile of someone who will be taken in the Rule 5 draft. Risk %: 25% RHP Greg Peavey Age: 27 Height: 6'2" Weight: 185lb Highest Level: AAA Acquired: Selected from the Mets in the Minor League portion of the Rule 5 draft in 2014 2015 Prospect Rank: N/A Last season (AAA/AA) :27 G, 27 GS, 147 IP, 5.3 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 5.02 ERA, 4.48 FIP, 1.354 WHIP, .287 BABIP Summary: Peavey is a pitch to contact control artist who can be really good on a good day and really bad on a bad day. And he had more bad days than good last season. Hard to see him drafted, but it is not impossible. Not unlike the starters that the Twins have drafted in the rule 5 draft this decade Risk %: 40% C Michael Quesada Age: 25 Height: 6'1" Weight: 205lb Highest Level: A+ Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 24th Round of 2010 2015 Prospect Rank:NR Last season (A+) : .151/.239/.198; 240 PA, 0 HR, 0 SB, 21 BB, 73 K. Summary: Quesada had an abysmal season at Fort Myers at an age 2.5 years older than League average. Has been digressing every season; add a suspension because of drug use and it is a wonder he still is in the Twins' organization. Will not get drafted, unless something freezes over. Risk %: 1% RHP Dereck Rodriguez Age: 24 Height: 6'1" Weight: 180lb Highest Level: A+ Acquired: Drafted in the 6th round of 2011 2015 Prospect Rank: N/A Last season (Rk/A/A+) :15 G, 14 GS, 75.1 IP, 7.9 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 3.35 ERA, 3.49 FIP, 1.235 WHIP, .306 BABIP Summary: The son of Pudge was drafted as an outfielder and now is being converted into a pitcher. Played mostly Rookie ball at Elizabethton with 2 games with the Miracle and 1 with the Lookouts. He is a project; a project that looks good, but not MLB-ready by any means. Risk %: 20% C Jairo Rodriguez Age: 27 Height: 5'11" Weight: 180 lb Highest Level: AA Acquired: Signed by the Twins as an International Amateur Free Agent from Venezuela 2015 Prospect Rank:NR Last season (AA) : .221/.284/.244; 96 PA, 0 HR, 0 SB, 8 BB, 15 K. Summary: Has been in the Twins' organization for 9 season and was re-signed again this off-season, for his 10th, after a pretty bad performance at Chattanooga. They like him for some reason, but his is a performance that only a parent team would like... Risk %: 2% 1B Reynaldo Rodriguez Age: 29 Height: 6'0" Weight: 200 lb Highest Level: AAA Acquired: Signed by the Twins as a minor league Free Agent in 2013 2015 Prospect Rank:NR Last season (AAA) : .255/.307/.446; 551 PA, 16 HR, 13 SB, 39 BB, 82 K. Summary: Re-signed by the Twins as a minor league free agent again this off-season. A little older than the traditional rule 5 picks, his skills translate well in the majors and could be picked by a team in need of RH bats at the 1B/OF/PH/DH positions. Risk %: 55% LHP Dan Runzler Age: 30 Height: 6'4" Weight: 210lb Highest Level: MLB (2012) Acquired: Signed this off-season as a minor league free agent 2015 Prospect Rank: N/A Last season (AAA) :39 G, 0 GS, 37.2 IP, 9.6 K/9, 6.7 BB/9, 5.26 ERA, 4.56 FIP, 2.018 WHIP, .285 BABIP Summary: You can read a lot about Runzler here. A very intriguing situation and the only thing that makes me think that he might not get selected is that if a team wanted to give him a 40-man position, they could have done it. However, things change in a month. Risk %: 45% RHP Tim Shibuya Age: 26 Height: 6'1" Weight: 190lb Highest Level: AAA Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 23rd round of the 2011 draft 2015 Prospect Rank: N/A Last season (A+/AA/AAA) :33 G, 4 GS, 63 IP, 5.3 K/9, 1.6 BB/9, 3.57 ERA, 3.98 FIP, 1.222 WHIP, .295 BABIP Summary: Shibuya, despite his impeccable control is organizational depth at this point. Hard to see any takers Risk %: 25% RHP Matt Summers Age: 26 Height: 6'1" Weight: 205lb Highest Level: AA Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 4th round of the 2011 draft 2015 Prospect Rank: N/A Last season (A+/AA) :26 G, 1 GS, 44.2 IP, 6.0 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 3.63 ERA, 3.45 FIP, 1.187 WHIP, .266 BABIP Summary: Pretty much the same that was said about Shibuya. However, Summers was a higher round pick in the same draft and did not go that far. Risk %: 25% RHP Todd Van Steensel Age: 24 Height: 6'1" Weight: 190 lb Highest Level: A+ Acquired: Signed by the Twins as a minor league free agent in 2014 (previously pitching for them for 2011) 2015 Prospect Rank: 34 Last season (A+/AA) :46 G, 0 GS, 66 IP, 11 K/9, 4.4 BB/9, 2.32 ERA, 3.33 FIP, 1.288 WHIP, .310 BABIP Summary: In his first full season as one of the Miracle closers, Van Steensel put good enough numbers to move up to the Chattanooga pen next season, but not good enough to be drafted. He in an interesting prospect who might be a couple seasons away if his fastball plays against better competition, but he is not there yet. Risk %: 25% UT Logan Wade Age: 24 Height: 6'1" Weight: 190 lb Highest Level: A+ Acquired: Signed by the Twins as an International Free agent from Australia 2015 Prospect Rank:NR; 2014: 37 Last season (A+) : .258/.296/.374; 366 PA, 3 HR, 3 SB, 20 BB, 63 K. Summary: Wade is an average utility player at Fort Myers who can play all over the field. Not sure that he is ready for AA, much yet for the majors. Risk %: 5% LHP Jason Wheeler Age: 25 Height: 6'6" Weight: 255 lb Highest Level: AAA Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 8th round of 2011 2015 Prospect Rank: NR Last season (AA/AAA) :25 G, 25 GS, 137.2 IP, 5.9 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 5.43 ERA, 4.68 FIP, 1.467 WHIP, .323 BABIP Summary: Typical Twins' minor league middle of the rotation starter. Pitch to contact pitcher with above average control, hoping to induce ground balls that the defense behind him will turn to outs. Much better success at AA than at AAA last season. He is a lefty. Maybe someone things that with a couple few pitches and a few ticks higher in his FB might turn into an acceptable reliever in the majors. Maybe. Risk %: 55% UT Stephen Wickens Age: 26 Height: 5'10" Weight: 170 lb Highest Level: AA Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 33rd round of 2011 2015 Prospect Rank:NR Last season (A+) : .254/.352/.333; 310 PA, 1 HR, 16 SB, 36 BB, 45 K. Summary: Steady utility player who has played every position except CF and C. Has value on resting starters for a good minor league team and not hurt the team with the bat or the glove, but that's about it. I do not see him getting selected. Risk %: 15% LHP Corey Williams Age: 25 Height: 6'2" Weight: 205 lb Highest Level: AA Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 3th round of 2011 2015 Prospect Rank: NR Last season (A+/AA) :29 G, 0 GS, 33.12 IP, 7 K/9, 4 BB/9, 2.43 ERA, 2.99 FIP, 1.110 WHIP, .247 BABIP Summary: Williams is a lefty in the Twins' system with closer staff, but command issues. He was on a quick trajectory to the majors that got derailed with a Tommy John surgery and the loss of all 2014. He returned in 2015 and put good but not great numbers. The Twins know his medicals better than any team, but Williams is the type of guy you add to a 40-man roster because if healthy he can help a team down the stretch better than the likes of Aaron Thompson and Ryan O'Rourke. Also this is exactly the kind of guy who might get drafted for the same reason. Risk %: 75% RHP Alex Wimmers. Age: 27 Height: 6'2" Weight: 212 lb Highest Level: AA Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 1st round of 2010 (21st overall) 2015 Prospect Rank: NR; 2014: 40 Last season (AA) :30 G, 18 GS, 115.1 IP, 7.8 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 4.53 ERA, 3.50 FIP, 1.387 WHIP, .325 BABIP Summary: Wimmers is the poster boy of the players who get drafted in the Rule 5 draft. Another season removed by Tommy John surgery he put respectable raw numbers in AA and pitched the most innings in his career. A control artist with ground ball tendencies and a strikeout breaking ball, might need a change of scenery. The potential is there and now that he has proven that he can handle the work load, he will find a taker. Surprised if the former 1st Round selection is with the Twins at the conclusion of the Winter Meetings. Risk %: 85%

.235/.260/.408 slash line outside Coors Field. Rich man's?

Math: Murphy had a grand total of 284 PAs in the majors. According to this 8.7% of the pitches thrown to him were curves. So, this argument is made based on a grand total of 25 pitches?

Working on that, but the Twins have potentially 5-6 MLB-ready pitchers unprotected (Jones, Williams, Johnson, Peavy, Baxendale, Wimmers, Lee) Jorge who someone might pull a Santana, and Michael, Rodriguez (not the son of Pudge or Jairo) from the hitter side. That's 10 here.

I think that the Twins might lose 3-4 players in this draft. We shall see...

I did not say that. Duffey is a major leaguer. Milone is a major leaguer too. Albers was once. My point was the fact that he does not have a "mid 90s FB". Just a fact. Not a comment about his ability as a major league.

Absolutely! But to do that, he has to add 4-5mph to his FB, since it averages 90.2 these days...

Eddie has been there for a while Randy not yet.

I was going through my list of eligible players and I think that the following should be added to this list (resent MiLB FA signees/re-signees) : OF Marcus Knecht, C Joe Maloney, SS Heiker Meneses, LHP Dan Ruzler

At Fort Myers? If so, mystery solved. I have seen Duensing hit 97 in that ballpark according to the OF radar reading

Good stuff. I hope we see him in MN soon. One thing: He does not "throw hard". He has a heavy sinker with good movement that is at 90-91 but looks more. Went back to my ST notes on him and his pitching from 2012 and here is that (got to scroll down), if anyone interested (talking about blast from the past with Sano and Kepler as babies there too...) I remember that talk about him as a starter but that was quietened down pretty quick. His delivery was (have not seen him pitch after his surgery) borderline violent, so not that suited for a starter. Interesting to see how things pan out for him because he needs to be added to the 40-man roster to be protected from the Rule 5.

The rule says that someone taken in the Rule 5 draft has to be active for 90 days before placed in the DL, to prevent things like that. If Melotakis is not ready to pitch on opening day, I doubt that any team will take a chance on him and effectively play 3 months with a 24 man roster.

They'll add Rogers, they'll add Chargois (they better), they'll add Walker. I'd add Michael (I believe that he turned that corner and be with the Twins this season) Then the equation gets more complex: Do they prefer Darnell and O'Rourke more than of Melotakis/Dean/Williams (not sure he will be drafted anyways?) Do they prefer Achter and Tonkin rather than Jones, Jorge, Landa? I don't think that anyone will draft Harrison. Not ready. They need space for a couple of MLB-ready arms as well. I'd waive Darnell, O'Rourke, Achter and Tonkin and add Melotakis, Jorge and Landa. to the 4 aforementioned. That leaves them 3 spots plus Park's to add MLB-ready relievers and maybe a bat. Trades/non-tenders should also happen. Not sure what others on the 40-man roster (Milone/Fien/Nunez) add to a contender. The only other player who might get picked by the likes of Milwaukee or Philly, is Reynaldo Rodriguez, but I don't see them adding him at this point.