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Thrylos

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Everything posted by Thrylos

  1. Thrylos
    This is what scares me about Milone: Milone's worst pitch is his fastball Milones only above average pitch is his change up which he throws about 25% of the time and is just 6 mph slower than his FB. Add the fact that the past 2 seasons he pitched <130 and <120 innings, and I tend to think that there is no book on him yet. And when that happens, we will be watching batting practice... Sell High.
  2. Thrylos
    Boshers has a 1.95 ERA, and 1.00 WHIP, 39 K and 11 BB in 37 IP (26 games) in Venezuela this winter...
  3. Thrylos
    I really do not get the obsession with Stuart Turner, esp. when Murphy (who had a .688 OPS in the majors last season at the same age that Turner had a .628 OPS in AA) is under control until 2020 or so. I can see Garver over Murphy as the starter because of his stick, but Turner at this point is a worse prospect than Drew Butera was at the same age. Barring trades the rest are close, but I would have Polanco over Gordon as the SS starter (doubt that Gordon will be close to MLB-ready in 2 season). Also I don't see Walker as a corner OF starter in a contending team, unless he gets his OBP close to .320 or so. Kepler at CF is about as good as Parmelee at CF, so that should not even be option D. I see Rosario as a great 4th OF (again that OBP issue) and from the current high minors crop. I don't get the lack of love for Arcia here as well... I'd have an Arcia/Buxton/Kepler OF with Rosario as the 4th guy. I'd probably have Palka ahead of Walker (that OBP) as well... So (barring trades, and I think that they should trade Dozier by then) C - Murphy 1B/DH - Mauer DH/1B Park/Vargas 2B Dozier 3B Sano SS Polanco RF Arcia CF Buxton LF Kepler OF Rosario
  4. Thrylos
    Is that wishful thinking or is it what the Twins would do? My wishful thinking (with the players they have) : Meyer Berrios Gibson May Santana what the Twins will do: Santana Hughes Gibson Nolasco Milone
  5. Thrylos
    Well you know that cat, May. a. Would he have a spot in the Mets' postseason rotation? b. Would he have a spot in the Royals' postseason pen? a. no way b. likely so, you know how to skin that cat
  6. Thrylos
    Let me take that O'Day Milone comparison a tad further: LHB hit .261/.316/.415 off Milone and RHB .193/.261/.279 off O'Day. Milone has a career 16.9% K% and 16.8% in 2015. O'Day has a career 24.2 % K% and 31.9% in 2015 The Twins can get as much from any of the 3 MiLB FAs they signed or from O'Rourke than they can get from Milone for at least $5 million less.
  7. Thrylos
    Not all innings are created equal. Good teams want their best pitchers in high leverage situations. And in good teams, those will likely be in the pen. For example in the 2015 Royals, Wade Davis faced more opponents in High Leverage situations (107) than Danny Daffy (102), or Jeremy Guthrie (99). Also a good reliever can influence the outcome of twice as many games than a starter...
  8. Thrylos
    I think that the '87, '91 and '65 teams (in that order) are ahead in the line as far as team recognition goes...
  9. Thrylos
    I think that your definition and my definition of what is a "solid" player is a tad apart Jordan Schafer was a replacement level player for the Twins. Replacement level is not "solid". Ditto Darin Mastroianni, Alex Presley, Clete Thomas, Erik Komatsu, Jason Repko, Jason Pridie, Jason Tyner, and Shane Robinson, etc. The Terry Ryan Twins like to carry at least a replacement level veteran OF on their rosters for some reason. This does not make them "solid". On the other hand, 4th OF for the Royals was Jarrod Dyson who is a solid player I think that Eddie Rosario would be a solid 4th OF for the Twins. All they need to do to make it happen is go get 3 better than him starters ahead of him They got to raise the bar to seriously compete for and through the postseason, something that last happened 25 seasons ago.
  10. Thrylos
    And might end up playing at home this season
  11. Thrylos
    Former top 50 BA prospect, 30 years old, lefty, never realized his potential, bit of a head case... Sounds a lot like Jordan Schafer, maybe a tad better with both the glove and the stick.
  12. Thrylos
    I think that is it more complicated than that: a. We need to know what is the league success rate? If the average is 50% with the top 4 picks, that 20% looks pretty bad. b. "Success" is a gradient that needs to be defined and weighted: Getting the next Johan Santana or Clayton Kershaw, should count more than getting the next Tommy Milone or the next Phillip Humber or the next Sam Deduno. c. Look at it as a piece of a bigger strategy that should provide some fruit. I'd dare to say that the Twins' pitcher drafting strategy in that time frame, 2008- failed miserably since all they have to show is: a mid-rotation starter (Gibson), a few replacement level relievers (Tonkin, Achter, Darnell, O'Rourke,) and a guy who shows mid-rotation potential (Duffey) but pitched only in 10 MLB games. The results (c. above) do not really favor their overall drafting of pitchers from 2008 on. I'd venture to say that they are in the worst 5 teams in drafting pitchers during that time.
  13. Thrylos
    The bullpen looks a lot like the horrible 2015 bullpen. And one Perkins' health issue away from being the worst in the majors...
  14. Thrylos
    Because: a. that way you usually ending up giving less $, since the players you get are in old (and lower) contracts b. Got to give up players in positions you have too many, otherwise they will leave without getting anything back. See Jones, Zack, Guerra, Deolis, Achter AJ, Pinto Josmil, etc Tell me: Would you get a decent reliever if you packaged those 4 say in the 2015 trading deadline, instead of loosing them for nothing in the 2016 off-season? I think so. That's why trades make actually more sense that most free agent signings...
  15. Thrylos
    Interesting question, so I went back: Technically in 1996 he signed Aquilera to a 4 year contract the off-season after he traded him to Boston. In 1997 he signed Greg Swindell for 2 years in 1999 he signed Bob Wells for 2 years and signed him again for another 2 in 2001, after traded him to the WSox in 2000. In 2004 he signed Terry Mulholland to 2 years So 2 years is as high as he goes externally. And the norm is 2-3 years for relievers these days...
  16. Thrylos
    Give it 2-3 years and we shall see how this trade would look. 2 seasons ago the Revere trade looked pretty bad. Not so after last season... Give it time.
  17. Thrylos
    Since he has been with the Twins' Fien has been consistent; here is his FIP: 2012: 3.24, 2013: 3.15, 2014: 3.43, 2015: 3.45. His "success" in 2012 (2.06 ERA, 0.97 WHIP) came from ridiculous: .229 BABIP, 84.4% LOB%, and 6.1% HR/FB. My litmus test is whether or not one of the 4 teams that made the league championship games would have had Fien in their post season bullpen. If the answer is no, which I am afraid it is, he should not be in the Twins' pen. They should be into winning well into the post-season instead of into charity. And, frankly, there are better internal options than Fien, including the 2 kids who closed games in Arizona this Fall...
  18. Thrylos
    Add Alex Meyer to the list of potential starters in 2016; he should be ahead of both Rogers and Berrios at this point... The bullpen needs to get fixed and just one LHP will not do it. They need a LHP and a RHP who can strike people out, let stay at 25% K% or better. Storen (at 29.4%) had his best season according to several metrics last season. I'd try to see what it would take to pry him. As far as lefties go, Bastardo who played most of his career around here, is very frustrating to watch. He was strike out the side or he can walk every batter he faces depending on the day. I'd stay away. There are so many free agents out there with the recent non-tenders that the Twins should be able to find the next Wade Davis or Liam Hendriks (oops) in a lefty version... Milone or Darnell are not it... As far as who should go off the 40-man roster first? Tonkin. He had 54 MLB innings to prove that his flat FB is hitable in the majors. Second O'Rourke. I have no idea why he is there to begin with. Add 2-3 spots that can be freed up via a trade and you are in good shape.
  19. Thrylos
    The fact that the Twins while competing were fine with Kepler being in the minors in September instead of helping the club with the final push, speaks volumes about where he is in their minds. The off-season is long and a lot of things might have yet to happen to influence Keplers' position with the team in 2016. Not the least is him winning a corner OF job over someone like Arcia who is out of options. We don't even know whether he will be a Twins' player on opening day at this point
  20. Thrylos
    Yeah. Something is pretty fishy here Was that an e-mail interview? The kid does speak English for sure. Oh. And the Liriano comparison is just not there. Totally different stuff. Maybe the slider. M.A.Y.B.E.
  21. Thrylos
    And why the hey would the Nationals want Milone again?
  22. Thrylos
    That goes to the hoarding part. Hord mediocre people just in case, instead of solving the real problem. And Milone will get $7M in arbitration or so. Would you combine, Milone's, Fien's and Nunez' annual money and add a couple of million and get O'Day and Soria? (because those are the numbers....) Quality vs. Quantity...
  23. Thrylos
    Alright. Lemme play: What would you trade him for. Name names and clubs. To see the value. The Twins need to address their bullpen big time. They need a couple of good proven arms, one of each side with close to 30% K%. Can you get one for him? If not, it is not worth it. Low value sometimes is bad value. Spendthrifting and hording quantity over quality does not win titles.
  24. Thrylos
    Let me ask this is a different way: Who do you think will be a better starter for the Twins next season: Berrios or Milone? Duffey or Milone? If the answer is not Milone in both, he should go...
  25. Thrylos
    Cannot wait for Bert to try to pronounce his name
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