Thrylos

I think that one can look at this list and make a better argument regarding the Twins' defense in 2016.

Every single league has its own balls. So they use a different ball in AAA International League and in AAA Pacific Coast League even...

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch ---- With pitchers and catchers reporting for Spring Training in about 5 weeks, it is time for the annual Twins' off-season top prospect list. The past 4 seasons, this list was a top 40 list, but I decided it to grow it to a top 60 list this off-season for various reasons, including some uncertainty towards the end of the rankings, plus the fact that I tend to include several players who have not yet played stateside. Unlike other prospect lists that include all players who qualify as rookies, mine does not include players who have played in the majors. I find it awkward to see players like J.T. Chargois who appeared in 25 games in the majors and was a major league player for the best part of 2 months, listed as a "prospect", and in some places with ETA 2017. Players like Adalbelto Mejia who appeared for one game only in the majors, take a mulligan and still treated as prospects in my list. I have waited as much as I could to include potential players received in trades, but I am afraid that if I wait any longer, I will run out of time, so additional incoming prospects will be ranked retroactively. As a baseline, here is my 2016 Twins' off-season list (the full link and analysis is here; it includes 2015 ranking in parenthesis and ETA) 1. Jose Berrios RHSP (5), 2016 2. Tyler Jay (--) LHSP, 2017 3. Nick Burdi (6) RHRP, 2016 4. Stephen Gonsalves (13) LHSP, 2018 5. Lewin Diaz (9) 1B/DH, 2019 6. JT Chargois (--) RHRP, 2016 7. Wander Javier (--) SS, 2020+ 8. Jermaine Palacios (36) SS/3B, 2020 9. Nick Gordon (12) SS, 2019 10. Mitch Garver (17) C, 2017 11. Levi Michael (22), 2B, 2016 12. Mason Melotakis (--), LHRP, 2016 13. Kohl Stewart RHSP (7), 2017 14. Travis Harrison (14), OF/1B, 2017 15. Amaurys Minier (6) OF/1B, 2019 16. Jake Reed (16) RHRP, 2017 17. Lewis Thorpe (11) LHSP, 2019 18. Daniel Palka (--) OF, 2017 19. Adam Walker (21), OF, 2016 20. Felix Jorge (29), RHSP, 2018 21. Rainis Silva (24), C, 2018 22. Jean Carlos Arias (--), CF, 2020 23. Engelb Vielma SS (20), 2017 24. Luis Arraez IF (40), 2019 25. Ryan Eades RHSP (30), 2017 26. Lachlan Wells (--), LHSP, 2020 27. Huascar Ynoa (--), RHSP, 2020 28. Brusdar Graterol (--), RHSP, 2020+ 29. Brandon Peterson (27), RHRP, 2017 30. Taylor Rogers (--), LHR/SP, 2016 31. LaMonte Wade (--), CF, 2018 32. Kolton Kendrick (--), 1B/DH, 2020+ 33. Chris Paul (--) IF/OF, 2018 34. Fernardo Romero (37), RHSP, 2019 35. Yorman Landa (--), RHRP, 2018 36. Kuo Hua Lo (--), RHRP, 2018 37. Niko Goodrum (--), CF/IF, 2017 38. Travis Blankenhorn (--), 3B/1B, 2020 39. Trey Cabbage (--), IF/OF, 2020+ 40. Emmanuel Morel (--) IF, 2020+ Berrios (1), Chargois (6), and Rogers (30) have graduated, Walker (19), Landa (35) and Lo (36) are no longer with the organization. The next segment will start the top 60 prospects countdown and will be the 56-60 prospects.

Of course the ball is different: http://www.zackhample.com/baseball_collection/photos/weird/international_league2.jpg http://content.sportslogos.net/news/2015/01/New-Major-League-Baseball-for-2015-Rob-Manfred-Signature-Rawlins.jpg

Here is the current Twins' rotation (in no particular order) Santana Hughes Gibson Santiago May which means that unless they get read of Santana and Santiago (and Hughes as soon as they can), not only the new pitchers they may get in a Dozier return do not fit in, but Berrios and Mejia as well (Duffey in the pen where he belongs.) And by allowing Berrios to play for PR in the WBC, the Twins pretty much closed the door on him. This is not what to do to an 103 L team that had the worst pitching in the majors. Santana is half a UCL and one more PED suspension for being worthless for the Twins; he needs to go, as much as Dozier does.

Indeed. Mater of fact, evidence suggest that Polanco will hit better than Dozier: Polanco Career MLB: .284/.340/.429, 109 OPS+ (up to Age 22) Dozier age 25 MLB: .234/.271/.332, 67 OPS+ Dozier Career MLB: .246/.320/.442, 108 OPS+ (up to Age 29)

The biggest need in the Twins' roster is to get rid of veterans (Dozier, Santana, Santiego, Kintzler, Boshers, Perkins etc) one way or another, get young pitching in return and see what they have in the organization, in order to assess what they might have and what holes need to be plugged when the team will compete. Trying to make an 103 L team to a 90 L team makes zero sense. Re: Storen: 2-3 mph velo drop across the board scares me. If I were to bet, I do not see him finishing the season healthy.

This cuts both ways. It could also be the defining non-trade and the continuation of the Ryan Twins' way whose most of its practitioners, unfortunately, still have the same jobs and potentially the same influence in the Twins' front office. For me the bottom line is: If they do not trade Dozier, the new dual-head regime will start the wrong way. I expect a bit of risk taking vs. sitting on one's bottom (the paradigm of the Ryan front offices) from the new guys, and so far this off-season I have been vastly disappointed.

Here is the thing: This "plaque in a closet" provides additional income for former players. Someone like Tim Raines could double or triple his income because of that plaque. As long as there are people collecting Hall of Famer memorabilia and autographs, it matters.

My 10 votes The easy ones: Bonds Clements Mussina Schilling Rodriguez Then a ranking of the DH/1B/OF types: Career: Bagwell 149 OPS+, 79.6 bWAR Walker 141 OPS+, 72.6 bWAR Ramirez 154 OPS+, 69.2 bWAR Raines 123 OPS+, 69.1 bWAR E. Martinez 147 OPS+, 68.3 bWAR Sheffield 140 OPS+, 60.3 bWAR Guerrero 140 OPS+, 59.3 bWAR Sosa 128 OPS+, 58.4 bWAR Kent 123 OPS+, 55.2 bWAR McGriff 134 OPS+, 52.4 bWAR I think that Raines belongs, so by default do Bagwell, Walker and Ramirez who had better careers (PED or not PED, I don't care, and Raines was involved with Cocaine that is a PED, in addition to a street drug, plus greenies were legal most of his career) This makes it 9. Final between Edgar Martinez and Trevor Hoffman. DH and Closer. Apples with pineapples. So go to perceived dominance: Both 7 times All Stars. Martinez one 3rd place MVP vote, Hoffman 2 2nd place Cy Young vote. Advantage Hoffman. That's my 10. Got to be objective as far as hitters go, and Raines is the tie-breaker for me that pushes Walker and Ramirez (better players than him in the same position, using subjective metrics) with him. Guerrero might do the same for Sheffield at some point as well, since they played the same position (other that the years Sheffield was at 3B) and accumulated practically the same numbers.

Wonder how many of those A- and B+ and B pitchers would be wanted from a 2016 contender... In other words, can we see Boshers and Kintzler and Pressly in a 2016 post-season bullpen? I have a hard time to do so. If they are rated that high, the Twins should have no trouble trading them, shouldn't they? But I suspect that nobody is knocking on the Twins' door about Boshers and Kintzler. The problem is the the Twins' pen was one of the worst in the majors. Averaging C does not reflect this. The average should be about a D or D-, if one wants to reflect the 2016 season, which might place Kintzler and Boshers appropriately as Cs or something, reflecting their perceived value around the league...

Harmon Killebrew and Brian Dozier do not belong in the same area code...

Agree about the need for creativity. The Dodgers need to shed payroll after 2017, so the Twins can be creative with that part. I do not want another 33 year old pitcher. Makes zero sense for a rebuilding team; however, I'd like to see if the Dodgers would be interested in swapping LHP Hyun-Jin Ryu (30 years old, under contract for both 2017 & 2018 for $7.8M each) for Hector Santiago (29, last year of arbitration, FA after 2017). Also would the Dodgers be interested in flipping Puig (26, 2 years of control at $8.2M and $9.2M) for Grossman (27, 4 years of control, last pre-arbritration year). This way it looks like $16M and $17M off the books for the Dodgers for the next couple seasons. Another guy I like from the Dodgers is 28 year old Pedro Báez who is under club control for 4 years and has closer material, but the Dodgers already have a closer. So I would not mind seeing: Dozier + Santiago + Grossman for DeLeon + Ryu + Puig + Báez with no $ exchanging hands. I am just afraid that Dozier will return to the player we know next season. The Twins have just to sell high...

Sub Twins for Atlanta, and this is a good reason that Dozier needs to go On the other hand, Atlanta is not on a rebuilding phase: They have a brand new stadium that they need to start filling with rear ends, before it turns into the ghost town Target Field has been recently, and this means winning. And signing two 40 year old free agents pitchers, extending one of their hottest commodities, getting the best FA UT in the market for a long term, going after older "value" players like John Danks, Rhiner Cruz and does not signal rebuilding. Check their starting OF, if you don't believe me. Dozier would fit really nicely in that team, and the Braves have the young pitching to make it happen...

45th in IP is the big one for me. FWIW, I'd probably grade Kershaw as a B+ this season because he did not pitch so much, even though he was great when he pitched. A is Cy Young conversation, so about 10 guys or so. I would also great Johan Santana's 2007 (15-13, 3.33 ERA, 3.82 FIP, 219 IP) as a B+ So if Kershaw's 2016 and Johan Santana's 2007 are B+, what should E. Santana's 2016 be? (52nd FIP, 37th ERA, t109th in Wins, low K% etc also pull him down) I think that B+ is a super high grade in general, just a hair below Cy Young consideration and Santana was not there...

Hard time giving Santana a B+ He only pitched 181 innings and his peripherals were average and he had a losing record (I know, wins and losses do not matter, but B+ means a stopper to me, which Santana was not.) He managed a very good ERA, which is the only thing his way. If he were like 230 IP with the same ERA and a .500 record, I'd think about a B+. More like a B- right now... He was way ahead of the rest of the Twins' pitchers, but that does not mean much Few others missing, like Ricky Nolasco, Pat Dean & Tommy Milone, all of whom pitched more innings than Berrios last season

really? look again. The current front office is the same as the 2016 front office, minus Ryan, minus Smith, plus the two new guys. So they got rid of the guy who was in charge of the Twins ST facility that is done (beautifully mind you) and replaced Ryan with Falvey and Levin. That is not cleaning out. Wait a year or two...

How many of these OFs would be starting with Cleveland or the Cubs last season? Even with the Heyward woes and the Bradley injury, hard to see any being able to start with either team. Hopefully it will be a different answer after 2017. That's where the bar should be set.

I just hope that the Twins do the deal here. C Carson Kelly would be a great return from the Cardinals. If the Twins can get Weaver and Kelly plus a C prospect, like Sandy Alcantara, might be better than what the Dodgers can offer without Urias. Interesting stuff...

Promise? Pinky promise? Unlike Mauer he did not have a no-trade clause.

Look again. Only the head of the old regime was replaced. The old regime is still around.

I think that it is too early in the off-season to even think how the AL Central will look. Detroit has been showing mixed signals. The have a good core rotation and position players. They can go both ways. If they add another arm to Verlander, Zimmerman, Fulmer, Sanchez, assuming health, their rotation might be better than Cleveland's. Unless they starting selling, I will not write them off as buyers to compete. The window on Verlander and Cabrera and the Martinezes is getting very small. Same with the Royals who are a bit of a schizophrenic team. They can go both ways and they are just a season removed from 2 WS appearances (and a win) in a row, something that no other AL Central team has done ever. Long off-season still ahead. Let's revisit mid-March

Not sure that Alvarez or Buehler would be the secondary piece in a trade that involved DeLeon At this point, I totally agree, they have to do it. If Dozier is a Twin opening day 2017 (same about Ervin Santana, btw) it would not be a good omen for the new FO...

Huge difference between Wade and Rosario: Wade walks. Career 101:80 BB:K. And .297/.409/.459 slash line. Rosario's minor league numbers are very similar, but one: His career MiLB slash is: .294/.340/.484. So if they hit at a .250 clip in the majors, Rosario's OBP will be .290 while Wade's .340 or so. I can live with a .340 OBP but not .290. The more I look at Wade the more I like him. If you want to look for comparable former Twins Rosario is more like Jacque Jones will a little less contact right now and Wade is more like Matt Lawton. He is actually a lot like Matt Lawton (career MiLB slash .282/.389/.426). Lawton's stick was good enough to be an every day corner OF (and I am talking about his Twins' time)

This is how I see it: C Mitch Garver/ Rainis Silva 1B Kennys Vargas / Lewin Diaz (after deadline) 2B Jorge Polanco 3B Nick Gordon SS Engelb Vielma/ Wander Javier (after deadline) LF Max Kepler or LaMonte Wade CF Byron Buxton RF Daniel Palka / Amaurys Minier (after deadline) DH Miguel Sano and Arraez, Blackenhorn, Rortvedt, Kirilloff knocking on the door.