Thrylos

And Ryan inherited a team 2 years away from a world championship and a year away from a 90 win season, managed to trade its core away and end up with a perennial 90 loss team. Or do we want to forget that?

And Ryan gets rewarded for 2012 with the removal of the "interim" title and gets zero blame for 2013. Guess when "Terry Ryan" is on the plaque, the plaque is made from Teflon.

Agreed. And also to add to that argument is that more than half of the Twins' losses were decided by 2 runs or less and that they lost close to 80% of the games that were either decided by 2 runs or less or went to extras. Also, at the moment, Cleveland and Detroit got weaker and KC and Chicago stayed the same. This is also important because opponent strength will be important. But we can talk about that in March That said, I find adding WARs pretty inaccurate. Regardless, I think that the Twins can compete in 2014 (and if they don't, fire Ryan and Gardy )

This is way too one sided... and silly. Because Smith was an administrator and he delegated baseball personnel related decisions to his direct reports. Those are the ones who made those decisions and those are the ones who are still making them. e.g Wasn't Gardy the one who was on the record saying that Hardy was too slow and he wanted Nishioka's speed? or wasn't during Smith's time that some of the top Twins' talent right now (Sano, Rosario, Polanco, Kepler, Vargas etc?) was signed? Or if Smith did not make the deadline trades in 2010, which TR would had not, because prospects were involved, the Twins likely would had not make the post-season. And for the record: The Twins' under Smith had a better record than the Twins under Ryan's second coming. TR's magic want did nothing in 2012 and 2013, did it? I expected more by B-P...

The only thing is that perceived "value on basepaths" is based on SBs and SBs are situation (hard to steel with 2 outs) and manager (some like to run more than others) dependent... SBs are like RBIs in my book. Hard to use to determine value.

Seth, why don't you right something about John Buck and about Bronson Arroyo while you are still hot?

The off-season is still young Liriano Slowey Mijares Casilla Valencia Young Thome Dickey Breslow Ayala etc etc

Last season was the best of the last 3 on the plate for Davis. His slash line: .260/.312/.375 ; his career slash line an almost identical .268/.316/.377. He will be 33 next season so about to decline for a guy whose single major tool as a batter is his defense. In 2012 when healthy, Mastroianni hit .252/.328/.350 for the Twins. Presley hit .283/.336/.363 last season and .264/.304/.411 for his career. Both of these guys are 5 years younger than Davis. If their numbers are not close to Davis, I don't know how you get any closer. And if these guys are AAAA, then Davis is too... These 2 make Davis redundant, not Parmelee, Willingham, Doumit and Colabello...

a. An important point in that list of current Twins' OF is that 7 of them are on the 40 man roster (and I do not view Rosario as an OF at this point and Buxton will not be up there in 2014) and adding Doumit, who should be on the list as well, makes 8. Unless the Twins move some for some actual return, adding another guy who maybe be a marginal improvement over Mastroianni and Presley is moot. The can have a good field light hit OF now with those 2 and Hicks, which can actually be a good late innings defensive OF. I hate the fact that the Twins have been giving players away recently; about time that trend reverses b. The Twins have way to many holes right now to think about improving their 4th OF. Getting an extra half a win out of their fourth OF, is not just a luxury in a 99+96+96 loss team, it is simply silliness when it becomes a priority over bigger issues. c. If they want to drive up the price that Detroit will pay, I say excellent work!

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch --- This is the seventh segment of the 2014 off-season Twins top 40 prospects, and we entered the top 10. Prospects 36-40 are here, 31-35 here, 26-30 here , 21-25 here, 16-20 here, 11-15 here, and you can find all segments in reverse order here. The number 6 to 10 off-season 2014 Minnesota Twins prospects are: 10. Stephen Gonsalves LHSP, DOB: 7/8/1994, 6'5", 190 lbs. Stephen Gonsalves was drafted by the Twins in the fourth round of the 2013 draft. He dominated pro ball, after he joined the team pitching 14 innings in each of the Twins Rookie League teams (GCL Twins and Elizabethton Twins) and finished the season with cumulative 28.3 IP in 8 games (5 start) striking out 39 and walking 11. His ERA was 0.95 and WHIP 1.024. His dominating K% (32.1 in the GCL and 38.1 in Elizabethton) bodes well for the tall lefty. His fastball is at 89-91 mph with good action and touches 93 mph. Its velocity is projected to increase as he grows and it is a plus pitch. He also does have a plus mid 70s changeup already, but his sbreaking balls are a work in progress and below average at this point. He is throwing a soft high 60s curve, which is the better of the two and a high 70s slider/slurve. Last season was his age 18 season and he still has room to grow. Depending on development of his breaking ball, he will either start his age 19, 2014 season at EST and then at Elizabethton or at Cedar Rapids. He is slated to move fast in the organization and does have top of the rotation potential, especially if his fastball picks a couple of notches. 9. Trevor May RHSP, DOB: 9/23/1989, 6'5", 215 lbs Trevor May was drafted by the Philadelphia Philies in the 4th round of the 2008 draft out of Keslo (WA) High School. He came to the Twins, along with Vance Worley in the winter of 2012 for Ben Revere. He was rated 69th prospect in baseball by Baseball American and 54th by MLB.com before the 2012 season. May's stock was low when the Twins got him after 2012 because his production fell that season, his first at AA. He pitched 149.7 innings (28 GS), struck out 151, walked 78, allowed 22 HRs (1.32 HR/9) had a 4.87 ERA (4.88 FIP) and 1.44 WHIP (.292 BABIP). The main concern was that his K% fell from his usual high 20s and 30s a career low 22.9% and his BB% ever though it improved, it was still high at 11.8%. He pitched 9 innings in the Arizona Fall League before he moved to the Twins organization last Fall. He was added to the Twins 40-man roster then. May repeated the Eastern League in 2013, now in New Britain. Not reflected by his W-L record (9-9) or his ERA (4.51, similar to 2012), his repeat trip in AA resulted in small but significant improvement. His K% increased to 24.1%, BB% decreased to 10.2%, HR/9 regressed to a still high but better 0.83. His WHIP remained at 1.42, but with .329 BABIP this season (reflective to the bad defense at New Britain). All in all resulted in a full point drop plus on his FIP to 3.79 from 4.88 in 2012. He has 3 good pitches: A 92-94 mph plus sinker, a plus low 80s hammer curve that is an out pitch and an above average straight change that is his weaker pitch. There are concerns about both his command and control, and frankly they are the reason he is still in the minors. His mechanics are inconsistent and likely the source of his issues. Improved concentration and more focus on baseball instead of music production , will go long ways towards fixing these. His ceiling is mid to top of the rotation pitcher, but unless his control improves and his changeup improves a bit or he adds another pitch, a major league bullpen may be in his future. May will likely start the 2014 (his age 24 season) in Rochester and will be called up in September to the Twins. 8. Jose Berrios RHSP, DOB: 5/27/1994, 6'1", 185 lbs Jose Berrios was drafted by the Twins in the supplemental first round of the 2012 draft from Papa Juan (PR) High School . He finished that season blazing through both Twins' rookie leagues, turning heads on the way. In the Gulf Coast League he appeared in 8 games, starting one, pitched 16.7 innings, struck out 27 and walked 3. His WHIP was 0.600, ERA 1.08 and FIP 0.50. In the Appalachian League he started 3 games for 14 innings, striking out 22 and walking just one with a 0.643 WHIP, 1.29 ERA and 1.41 FIP. In 2013, his age 19 season, he was a starting pitcher in Cedar Rapids and fell back to earth. He started 19 games (103.7 innings) striking out 100 and walking 40, with a 3.99 ERA (3.44 FIP) and a 1.40 WHIP (.330 BABIP-driven). The biggest disappointments in his first full season was the decrease of his K% from 43% or so to 22% and the increase of his BB% from 2-5% to 8.8%. Not certain whether those changes were fatigue-driven, but Berrios will just be 20 in 2014, so there is still a lot ways to go. Berrios has a plus fastball that sits at 92-93 and can get up to 96-97, an above average change and a work in progress slurve. The command of his off-speed pitches has been the issue for him in Cedar Rapids, which probably is dues to inconsistent mechanics. He does have a 3/4 arm release point that is inconsistent. He does have top of the rotation potential, but he needs to develop better breaking pitches and have more consistent mechanics to reach it. Otherwise he will be a relief pitcher. Depending on how he shows up in Spring Training, he will start the 2014 season (his age 20) in the Fort Myers rotation, with a small possibility of repeating the Midwest League for part of the season if his mechanics are not there. 7. Kennys Vargas SH, 1B, DOB: 8/1/1990, 6'5", 255 lbs Kennys Vargas was signed by the Minnesota Twins as an undrafted free agent in February of 2009. As a Puerto Rican he was eligible for the 2008 MLB Draft but he was passed by all teams in all 50 rounds of the draft as a 17 year old high school senior. Vargas started at the Twins system at the GCL his age 18 season (2009) hitting .257/.369/.404, 3 HR, 7 2B, 17/34 BB/K, in 35 games. He repeated the GCL his age 19 season .324/.388/.507, 3 HR, 15 2B, 13/40 BB/K in 39 games, exhibiting both good contact skills and gap power. Next season he was in Elizabethton where he continued his dominance with the bat, hitting .322/.377/.489 with 6 HRs and 11 doubles and 15/50 BB/K in 44 games. Unfortunately, that off-season he tested positive for a banned in the US diet pill that contained ephedrine and he had to serve a 50 day suspension losing half of the 2012 season. But that second half of the 2012 season put him on the map as one of the Twins' top prospects. He playing in Beloit and made the transition from a doubles hitter to a home run hitter and improved his plate discipline skills. In only 41 games (186 PAs) he hit .318/.419/.610 with 11 HRs and 10 doubles walking 28 times and striking out 41. Those numbers were better than his Uber-prospect teammate's Miguel Sano's. That season, the now expectant father, received the nickname "Baby Papi", referring to his similarity in statute and in punishing the ball to David Ortiz. In 2013 he was promoted to Fort Myers where he hit .267/.344/.468 with 19 HRs and 93 RBI 50/105 BB/K in the longest campaign in his pro career (125 games, 520 PA) running out of gas later in the season. Vargas has phenomenal power and his power tool is up there with Sano's. He needs conditioning. His contact tool has been good (but regressed the second half at Fort Myers, likely because of fatigue) and his plate discipline has been improving. His play at first base has also been improving but it is at Big Papi territory. Next season, his age 23 season, he will likely start in New Britain and share DH/1B duties with DJ Hicks. He has power from both sides of the plate but is a better LHB. He was added to the Twins 40-man roster a few weeks ago and will be there in Spring Training. A September call-up, and a mid-season promotion to Rochester, if all goes well in New Britain, might be in Vargas' near future. 6. Jorge Polanco, SH, SS/2B, DOB: 7/5/1993, 5'11", 165 lbs. Jorge Polanco was signed by the Minnesota Twins on July of 2009 from the Dominican Republic for a $750,000 bonus. He is in the same international class as fellow Twins' prospects Miguel Sano and Max Kepler, but his classmates stole the lime light until this season. Much like Sano, Polanco started 2010 (his age 16 season) in the DSL and move to the states to the GCL mid-season. But, unlike Sano, he had a hard time. He hit .233/.303/.294 with 1 HR, but 18 BBs and 18 Ks, combined in 42 games (187 PAs) in 2010 between the 2 rookie leagues. In 2011, his age 17 season, he repeated the GCL with similar results: .250/.319/.349 15/24 K/BB in 51 games (193 PAs). A seventeen year old cannot be a bust, especially one with such a good eye as Polanco and he indeed broke through the next season in Elizabethton, where as an 18 year old he hit .318/.388/.514 with 20/26 K/BB in 51 games (204 PA.) Once his contact tool met his plate discipline tool, the switch hitter entered the top prospect map. He continued to improve in 2013 as a 19 year old in Cedar Rapids where he hit .308/.362/.452 with 32 doubles, 42 walks and 59 strikeouts in 115 games (523 PAs) in his first full pro season. He got contact and discipline before, but last season he started to exhibit gap power that was translated to doubles. As of this writing Polanco is hitting .331/.396/.444 in 38 games (133 PAs) with 17 BB and 20 K, at the Dominican Winter League, which is a great performance for a 20 year old. At 5'11" and 165 lbs he will never be a home run hitter, but seeing line drives and doubles is great. In his career he played an equal amount of games at 2B and SS and a handful at the OF, but his future in this franchise is at SS, because it is the biggest position of need. He does have the range and the hands to play SS, but he needs to get a better feel for the position, and the way a 20 year old does that is with more reps. I think that Polanco will start his age 20 2014 season as the starting SS for the Fort Myers Miracle, pushing Nico Goodrum to third base and Travis Harrison to OF or 1B. He will likely earn a promotion to New Britain mid season and could even be a surprise September call up for the Twins, since he is on the 40 man roster, depending on performance. http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8381/8605998981_7802e01287_z.jpg Next: the top 5.

And all that said, Rosenthal is tweeting that the Twins and Arroyo are heating up. Hope it is a smoke screen by his agent to get someone like the Phillies to make it happen...

Today Ryan this morning was talking about Pelfrey and (Johan) Santana. Allegedly they have a 2/$10M offer out to Pelfrey. That said, I will be surprised if they sign another pitcher. If they add another arm will likely be via a trade and one of more of the above names might be included. Other than Gibson and Worley, these guys would be no loss...

Really got to be careful with those inaccurate PED accusations. Totally uncool. Pridie tested positive for street drugs not PEDs.

a. An increase in BABIP indeed means that he faced more batters. He just struck them out at a lesser rate than in 2012. K% is a rate thing. b. Yeah it would, but a team needs 22 more guys and you hope that some of them would be paid more than the minimum and you hope that you can carry 3-4 more good (read expensive) guys. I'd rather see them spend that $30M for 3 or 4 guys who would play 150+ games each rather than a guy who can impact only 30 some games...

No way Ks are not balls in play, so they are not counted in the BABIP... So you feel that the Twins will get a bargain and will be able to do much if they have $70M committed on 3 players (Mauer, Nolasco and Price) for the next 4 seasons?

So you think that a 5/$125-150M extension (on top of his current contract) would make sense for the Twins? Because that is what it would take. And we are talking about a guy whose FB velocity dropped 2 mph last season and K% dropped 4 points. I'd have a hard time making such a commitment, plus the players.

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch ---- This is the sixth segment of the 2014 off-season Twins top 40 prospects, counting down prospects 31 to 35. Prospects 36-40 are here, 31-35 here, 26-30 here , 21-25 here, 16-20 here, and you can find all segments in reverse order here. The number 11 to 15 off-season 2014 Minnesota Twins prospects are: 15. DJ Baxendale RHSP, DOB: 12/8/1990, 6'2", 190 lbs DJ Baxendale was drafted in the 10th round of the 2012 draft by the Twins from University of Arkansas. He finished that season between Elizabethton and Beloit where he pitched 18.7 innings in the pen with a 0.96 ERA and 0.804 WHIP, walking 2 and striking out 31. If that does not spell "domination" I am not sure what it does maybe the fact that his ERA in six games in Elizabethton was 0 and he had a -0.58 FIP. Negative. His FIP increased to 0.75 in Beloit, eventually. Fast forward to next Spring (2013 Spring Training), Baxendale had the single most dominating pitching performance I have seen, and I have seen a lot, retiring all 9 batters he faced, striking out all but one, including Byron Buxton. This is what I wrote then, and pretty much fit his 2013 path to a tee: DJ Baxendale, who was the Twins' 10th round pick from the University of Arkansas last summer and has been stretched to be a starter this season retired all 9 A players he faced, striking out 8. Only second baseman Aderlin Mejia was retired on a 3-1 ground out. Not a small feat, because the Cedar Rapids' lineup started with Buxton, Polanco and Harrison. Baxendale's stuff was absolutely filthy and his control was perfect (he had only one called ball the whole game). Two seam sinker with a lot of motion, a sharp breaking ball and a change up that had a life of its own. I will be very surprised if he does not move fast in the organization. This was one of the single most dominating pitching performances I have ever seen at any level of play. It was as if a major leaguer was pitching against Rookie league kids. Definitely someone to follow this season in Fort Myers (even though I suspect that he might end the season in New Britain.) and my next sentence was: Speaking of, this Fort Myers squad will score some runs and will be a serious contender in the Florida State League. (they actually led the league in runs per game and had the best record in the FSL. Should had bought a lottery ticket that day...) Back to Baxendale: He followed that Spring domination with the Fort Myers Miracle, where he begun the 2013 season, starting 9 games (57.3 IP) compiling a record of 7-0 with an 1.10 ERA, 0.785 WHIP, striking out 48 and walking 11. He moved in New Britain where he returned to earth. He started 16 games (92.7 IP) 5-7 record, 5.63 ERA (4.42 FIP), 1.42 WHIP (.317 BABIP), striking out 64 and walking 22. If not for his half season in New Britain, he would have been on the top 10 in this list. He jumped 4 levels of pro ball in two seasons and it is just his age 22 season. He has four pitches that he controls impeccably: low 90s fastball with good sink and movement, which is a plus pitch, and above average curve, slider and plus changeup. He has a good feel for the game and he can throw any pitch at any count for a strike. I believe that he will start 2014 in New Britain with a mid-season promotion to Rochester depending on performance. Definitely a pitcher who can make a fast jump in the organization. 14. Amaurys Minier, SH, SS/3B, DOB: 1/30/1996 6'2", 190 lbs Minier signed with the Minnesota Twins as an amateur free agent ($1.4 million bonus) out of the Dominican Republic on July 2, 2012. Minier is still 17 years old (the youngest player in the list), skipped the DSL (he attended the Twins academy) and played his first professional season in the Gulf Coast League last summer. He played 31 games, mostly at 3B, with 119 plate appearances. He hit .214/.252/.455 with 6 HRs and 17 RBI, and a 6/29 K/BB ratio. He still is very raw but most of his peers are playing high school ball, while he has a .241 IsoP at the GCL. For comparison's sake, at the same age, Miguel Sano had a .175 IsoP at the GCL. And Minier is a switch hitter. Not that he is the same kind of prospect that Sano is, and the ranking reflects this. He needs to develop his contact and plate discipline, starting to hit off-speed and breaking balls, and needs to find a position because SS is out of the question and 3B is likely taken. But he is just seventeen. Maybe he will end up as a corner outfielder depending on how he grows and how he develops. Will likely spend 2014 in extended Spring Training and in Elizabethton. 13. Travis Harrison, RH, 3B, DOB: 10/17/1992, 6'1", 215 lbs Harrison was a supplemental first round (50 overall) pick of the Twins in the 2011 draft out of Turstin (CA) High School. His first professional season was in Elizabethton in 2012, where he hit .301/.383/.461 with 5 HRs, 12 doubles, 4 triples, 24 BB and 51 K, as a 19 year old in 60 games. Last season in Cedar Rapids, his first full season, he hit .253/.366/.416 with 15 HRs, 28 doubles, 68 BB and 125 K in 129 games. Power has been touted as Harrison's best tool, and there have been flashes of it, and his IsoPs have been around .160, which is ok for a 20 year old in pro ball, but have to increase as he grows. Harrison has some trouble with breaking balls, especially of the in-the-dirt variety, and that is reflected by his consistent so far about a strikeout a game rate. He has to improve his pitch recognition and contact to go to the next level. Position-wise he has played almost exclusively at 3B (just a single game at LF finishing the game) but he will be squeezed from Sano ahead of him and potentially Minier behind him who are both better fielders. Moving across the diamond or at an OF might be an option, but he needs some reps at those spots soon, and first base might be spoken for for a while. 12. Felix Jorge, RHSP, DOB: 1/2/1994, 6'2", 170 lbs. Oft confused with a former major league player or the Rangers farmhand with similar names, Felix De Jesus Jorge was signed by the Twins out of the Dominican in February of 2011 for $250,000. He started his pro career at the DSL where he pitched in 9 games (5 starts) for 27 innings, walking 9 and striking out 26 (2.67 ERA, 2.50 FIP, 1.037 WHIP). He move to the States and pitched 12 games (7 GS) in the GCL in 2012 with similar results (34.7 IP, 37 K, 12 BB, 2.34 ERA, 2.28 FIP, 1.212 WHIP, .303 BABIP) and moved up to Elizabethton as a 19 year old last season. He started 12 games (61 IP) striking out 72 and walking 18, with a 2.95 ERA, 2.25 FIP and 1.213 WHIP (.338 BABIP.) His high 20s K%, which improved every season and was up to 28.4% is very encouraging. Jorge is also one of those rare pitchers who had 3 above average pitches when he signed at 16 and he has been improving them. He has a low 90s fastball with decent movement, which will likely gain a few mph as he gets stronger. Above average slurvy curveball and change up. He commands all three pitches well, has good control and he mixes pitches well. For 2014, his age 21 season, he will likely be in the Cedar Rapids rotation. 11. Ryan Eades, RHSP, DOB: 12/15/1991, 6'2", 178 lbs Eades was the Twins second round pick in the 2013 draft. After he signed he played 10 games in the Elizabethton pen pitching 15.7 innings striking out 13 and walking 12. He had a 4.60 ERA (4.22 FIP) and 1.596 WHIP. This is after pitching a career high 100 innings in college in 2013 and by no means can be used as an indication of his potential. Eades' potential is a mid to top of the rotation starter with four good pitches. He has a plus fastball that sits at 93-95 mph and peaks at 97-98, which he commands really well. He compliments it with three above average off-spead offerings: a high 80s slider, a high 70s curveball and a mid 80s changeup. He needs work with commanding his off-speed pitches but this will be a matter of maturity. Eades will likely start the 2014 season in the Cedar Rapids rotation, with the possibility of moving to Fort Myers mid-season. http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8382/8606001549_523f58f1c7_z.jpg Next: 6-10

I think that the most amazing thing about this article was the fact that a major reporter in the major Seattle paper wrote it and the editors published it. Imagine that happening in Twins' Territory...

This is a very deep system. 16-18 would be top 10 in most systems. I have not bought into the Thorpe mania based on 44 innings facing kids who grabbed a wood bat for the first time in their lives. Give him another successful season at higher levels and then he might get higher. This is just a very deep system. Kepler has really regressed. Could be injury or something, but I am trying to be cautious. I'd like to see success above the rookie leagues. .237/.312/.424, in his 4th pro season, in A ball, makes it hard for me to rank him much higher. Arguably, if not for the tools, he would not even be that high. Pretty much everyone ranked higher than Walker is a better prospect as far as I am concerned right now. He is a power guy, but .319 OBP in A after .316 OPB in E-town drags him down. Again, 17th is not that bad in this system.

Cannot use cumulative measurements to compare 2 players when one has 3x the PAs in a given time.

Not sure that Gardner brings anything to the table that Alex Presley does not. Gardner has a career 97 OPS+ (2000+ PAs), Pressley 98 (850 or so PAs). Presley is 2 years younger. Gardner could steal a base once upon at time, but I don't think that he is much better than Presley at this department right now.

From 2000 on the Twins were the definition of mediocrity cumulatively: Their W-L record was 1152-1117 They finished first 5 times They finished second 2 times They finished third 2 times They finished fourth 1 times They finished fifth 3 times They never won a pennant or a WS championship. Mediocre means some good, some bad and some in between. They were not awful, but they were mediocre. Cannot count the 90 win seasons only without counting the 90 loss seasons and reaching the post-season and winning only one series out of 7 should be a feather on nobody's cap. I did not say awful. That would be the Pirates. But as a whole, the Twins have been mediocre this millennium (and they are trending down.)

1982? Bruno, Gaetti, Hrbek, Viola were already in the majors, Puckett was a rookie in E-town, Gagne was a Yankee at the beginning of the season and players like Blyleven, Reardon and Gladden were with other teams. And it took 5 seasons for the Twins to win after 1982. The whole idea is for the Twins to build a world series champion for 2015-17. This is 2-4 years away. 1999-2000 the team was readying itself for contraction IIRC And they have not really won much this millennium, unless I am wrong. If you want mediocrity and you are fine with it, that's what you will get...

Good stuff! here is another name in that pipeline: Chase Mullins. Really big (D tackle size) LHP who can reach high 90s with his FB. Missed all last season after TJ surgery. Interesting to see how he does in the spring.

Quick question: Compare Glavine and Blyleven. Who was a more successful pitcher? Hope point is made