Thrylos

Got to love that inconsistent .915 OPS Sano's BB% was higher in New Britain than Fort Myers. The only difference between Fort Myers and New Britain was his contact, that dropped his BA about 90 points from Fort Myers. Root cause: BABIP at AA was .265 vs .397 in A+ . His career BABIP has been in the mid-high .300s, so that .265 is artificially low. Add 100 points to his AA BABIP, and you see that BA hitting mid .300s and that OPS climbing close to 1.100 (and home runs are not Balls In Play, btw.) Unlucky. Not inconsistent.

No Kepler is not much of a surprise. Some people are really high on Thorpe so I get that; Berrios also is in most top 10 lists. Danny Santana surprises me. I cannot see him in many Twins' top ten lists.

Will be released at their web site tomorrow, but it is out in the print edition. Here it is: 1.Byron Buxton 2.Miguel Sano 3.Alex Meyer 4.Kohl Stewart 5.J.O. Berrios 6.Eddie Rosario 7.Lewis Thorpe 8.Trevor May 9.Danny Santana 10.Jorge Polanco Interesting list in many respects... Cannot really argue about the top 4 (other than flipping a couple of positions,) but some of the rest are really interesting. I think that this is a good sign and speaks to the depth of prospects in the organization. There are about 20 players who made different top ten lists.

I know the Twins are playing Escobar at third, but it is his worse defensive position. He is about as good a third baseman as Plouffe is... I would love to see Escobar get an opportunity at the starting SS role over Florimon and push Florimon to the utility role. Nate Hanson will likely start at New Britain as well withCorey Wimberly being the utility guy at Rochester. I can see them adding more minor leaguers at 3B because that is definitely a thin position in the upper minors.

Here is a list that I find shocking. All the college position players the Twins drafted in the top 10 rounds from 1999 on, excluding the last 2 years, because it is too early to tell: Levi Michael, Tyler Grimes, Adam Bryant, Derek McCallum, Nick Lockwood, Tyler Ladendorf, Brian Dinkelman, Steven Tolleson, Matt Scanlon, Tagg Bozied, Kelley Gulledge, Doug Deeds, Johnny Woodard, Caleb Moore, Eric Lis, Matt Betsill , Whitney Robbins, Garrett Olson, Jeff Christy, Danny Lehmann, Nick Romero, Jeff Lanning, Mike Gonzales, Evan Bigley, Tobias Streich, Blake Dean, Lance Ray and Chris Herrmann, Brian Dozier (the jury is still out with those 2) I just don't see it happening.

Concensus? Free Agents? Not sure about that... Frankly, I'd rather see them do some addition by subtraction (like in the Doumit situation) and package Willingham and a couple of pitchers (and heck, throw Kepler in if you have to) with or without options for someone like Domonic Brown. That would make sense, it would be long term, and I'd like it (and the Twins' pitchers would too, I bet).

OK. Checked and double checked on this and it looks like an oops on Rosenthal's side. It did happen. The Twins did check Ervin Santana's records, but it did happen before Thanksgiving. Old news. Since then they signed 3 SPs.

Vargas, Harrison, Minier for starters and depends on how it plays, DJ Hicks potentially.

Albers and Diamond are way too high and Johnson too low. TR clearly said that Johnson has better stuff than Diamond when he brought him on board. You also need to add Logan Darnell. I'd also rank Gibson behind the guys with no options, just because of that reason. Pressly will have to spend a full season in the minors to stretch out to be a starter. The fun part of this, is that this takes care of both the Twins and Rochester rotations (and you need to add Meyer and Dean and Vasquez to Rochester.) Methinks that not all of these guys you list will be with the organization come April Fools'

No. And comparing a former top prospect and first round pick who has not yet reached his peak to a career independent league guy, does not make much sense. Gibson (and Worley, for many of the same reasons) will be given many opportunities; Albers not that much.

You don't want your lefty who was your best relief pitcher in high leverage situations in 2013, be your long man, you want him to be the set up lefty. I just don't get all the non-appreciation that Duensing gets sometimes (and I am not talking about Jeremy here, just a general comment) I think that based a. on their performance in 2013 and b. on their contact situation in 2014, both Duensing and Swarzak earned the right to compete for that last spot. And, as horrible as some people think that Duensing has been as a starter, he has pitched better than Diamond. Career as a starter: Duensing: 23-24, 4.18 FIP, 4.11 xFIP, 1.428 WHIP (.320 BABIP), 5.9 K/9, 2.38 K/BB Diamond: 19-27, 4.46 FIP, 4.33 xFIP, 1.405 WHIP (.304 BABIP), 4.2 K/9, 1.92 K/BB So, in other words, if you want a lefty in the rotation, the one who has succeeded the most in the majors as a starter within the current group is Duensing.

I think that they will do something, but I just don't see how they can fit Morales to the gluttony of no-field players they got (Willingham, Arcia, Kubel, Parmelee, Colabello).

Mitchell was signed mid-season by the Twins to play in the Rochester OF. He started the season at Lehigh Valley (my home area team) so I got to see him play in 4-5 games. He is one of those spark plug top of the batting order guys, who plays a decent CF, gets on base a lot, can steal a base or two and have some pop. Lefty. Lots like Alex Presley or Cliff Thomas (with better OBP than Thomas). Pick your poison. Waring is Plouffe with worse contact tool and maybe more power. Next. Both of those guys are older. Hoffman is a younger LHP who was with the Tigers and has had success in AAA as a reliever. Transitioned from starter to reliever. 2 pitch pony: low 90s FB, excellent curve. Does this smell a lot like Caleb Thielbar? Yes it does, when Hoffman can command his FB, which is most of the time, but not always. Rahl? Another oldy, but not so goodie, OF. Think Mitchell, but righty, smaller, with more power, worse defense and less OBP skill. That's them pretty much.

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch ---- Last month, I examined in depth the re-signing of Mike Pelfrey to a two year contact by the Minnesota Twins, suggesting that he, indeed, can be a steal for the Twins for many reasons. Today, I am looking at the biggest free agent spending from the Minnesota Twins ever, the signing of Ricky Nolasco to a 4 year, $49 million contact with an option of a 5th year, just before Thanksgiving. In the near future, I will look at the signing of Phil Hughes, to complete the profiles of the 2 new, and one not so new, Twins' starting pitchers. Rickey Nolasco by far is the most experienced pitcher in the Twins rotation and the Twins have him under contract for his age 31 through 34 seasons with the option covering his age 35 season. How good is Ricky Nolasco? The general sentiment, both from the main press and blogs covering the Twins has been that Nolasco is a mid-rotation type of starter, who can eat innings, and it is fairly durable (in a Carl Pavano way) but by no means he is a top of the rotation starter. Let's dig a little deeper now that the dust has settled and the holiday period has passed. Nolasco has been a darling in this space since about 5 years before the Twins signed him, because in his early years of pitching for the Marlins (look at this post from 11/2008, for example) he has been among elite company in pitching rankings. His numbers have been up and down the past few seasons after the first seasons with the Marlins (which earn him 3 opening day starts for them,) thus it make sense to look a bit deeper. And the way I will be looking is utilizing PE, xPE, FIP, xFIP and SIERA (please read this writeup for a primer about these measurements, what they do and the reasoning for their use). I am also doing a couple more things. I compare him to a particular Twins' pitcher, and using color coding, I am examining how both of their annual performances fit in a good rotation, using this key: http://farm6.staticflickr.com/5495/10909709863_0950d3e269_o.jpg Here are the numbers: http://farm4.staticflickr.com/3705/11928318545_5bb82c903c_o.jpg Nolasco's are on top, and Brad Radke's are on the bottom. Because of the inability to calculate xFIP and SIERA in the early year's of Radke's career, I have added FIP as well. However, as I show here, xFIP (and SIERA) correlate better with xPE than FIP, so the xPE comparisons are close to xFIP and SIERA comparisons. Based on this, Nolasco has a season (age 26) where he performed like an Ace, 2 seasons (ages 25 and 27) where he performed as a number one or two, two seasons that he performed as number two or three (age 28 and age 30), two seasons that he performed as a number three or four (age 23 and 29) and one replacement level season (age 24.) Clearly, his performance overall has been better than Brad Radke's performance overall. A couple more comparison charts: Here is Nolasco's and Radke's FIP compared annually since season age 22 (just for Radke, Nolasco was not in the bigs then) : http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7307/11929174766_6ca53d3583_o.jpg For the same age, other than age 24, Nolasco has had a very similar, but lower FIP than Radke in every season. and in the ages 26 and 30 seasons (that was 2013 for Nolasco), Nolasco's FIP was significantly lower than Radke's. And here are their xPE comparisons (higher is better) over the same span: http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7443/11929174916_5a3bd7aa75_o.jpg The xPE paints a bit of a more dramatic picture: other than the ages 24 and 28 (this is a difference with FIP) season, Nolasco's pitching was much better than Radke's at the same ages. However, there is a potential tale of caution, not obvious with the FIP chart: Looking at both xPE and FIP, Radke's peak was his age 28-32 seasons with age 31 being his absolute best, before the shoulder issues kicked. Nolasco's FIP is low enough in his age 30 season, but his xPE from his age 28 season one, has not quite reached his xPE peak of his career best (so far) at age 26. The jump in his age 30 season is encouraging and hopefully indicates that the best is still to come and Nolasco is indeed still in his peak years, but the drop is something to keep in mind. So what do the Twins have in Nolasco? A pitcher who has pitcher close to, but better overall, than Brad Radke in a year by year comparison and who has been top of the rotation pitcher. And based on the regard that the Twins' fanbase has for Brad Radke, anyone who follows the Twins should be thrilled with the Ricky Nolasco signing.

Indeed. I forgot about him playing for the Twins

Do you see Tommy John or Don Mattingly in? Both NY Yankees and both better players than Morris.

Nope. 2 more: One should be in the HOF (he was twice POM in 1991 btw) but he is not and the other is Freddie's little brother.

As mnfireman said, this club will not compete. Add Pinto, Sano, Hicks, Tonkin, Ibarra for the ones in bold up there, and you got a better team. Still I expect a couple more players before ST. And if you replace the underlined players with better players (or keep someone like Presley on the bench), then you might have a competitive team.

Hitting around .400 in AA and Willingham and Presley get injured in early August and the Twins are in contention.

Hear me for a second. First and third (and short and second) are different beasts. First is the second closest position to a catcher in the respect that people throw you balls at a fast speed (sometimes off target) that you have to catch and maybe tag someone. Third, short and second, you have to knock them down and throw them. You rarely throw a ball at catcher, you rarely throw a ball at first. Second and short, you catch double plays. Third, not that much. No Sano.

Advantageous and adventurous as well... This is from tonight: [video=youtube;ak3rh0j3b0I]

Sure. As far as the 1991 Twins go, you can find them all here. Not that much difference in home games than other pitchers. Weekends have more attendance than weekdays. Record attendance in '87 with around 55K people was in a game that Mike Smithson started. On a Friday. Means nothing. Really.

This is as relevant as Barry Zito's contract compared to the best AL pitchers of his era or Mike Hampton's contract compared to the best NL pitchers of his era.

Have you seen Ozzie Smith play? Very similar defensively but with better bat and most of his years hitting against the raised mound. His nickname? "Human Vacuum Cleaner". Hope that helps.

6'5" catchers do not last long catching... Pinto has the perfect physique for a catcher (think Pudge Rodriguez instead of Joe Mauer)