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Thrylos

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Everything posted by Thrylos

  1. Thrylos
    There are a few things in play here: -There is a set of fans who really are Twins fans and follow the games and go to the games and watch the games because they love baseball and they love the Twins. These folks will be there rain or shine and some of them will likely be at the ballpark more during rain (When I was living in the Cities, I saw more games at the Dome in 1990 than I did in '87 and '91. Reason: Cheaper tickets.) - There is another group of corporate fans. These folks will get their tickets (and suites) year after year after year. - There is another group of "experience" fans. For these folks baseball competes with the likes of movies, concerts, amusement parks etc. They go there for the food and the races between innings and the such. These folks will go there as well (and might score some concert tickets too and do the wave too and clap their hands, when the music asks them to do so). Modern stadiums have ensured that. -The only group that it's attendance is affected by bad performance is the bandwagon fans... How big is that group compared to the previous? I don't know. But I think that lots of these folks are "experience fans" as well...
  2. Thrylos
    Yeah. "Analytics" is all over the place and not only in the computer world It became a catch phrase about the same time "big data" became a catch phrase and those two things are intimately related. Outcome-based predictive analysis (or "decision support" whatever you want to call it) has been around for a while, and its product ("best practices") even longer. Even before computers. Just with computers it is much easier to work with larger data sets and really examine outliers and groups of outliers (and why those might be so) which makes things much more exciting. The sunny day scenario can very easily be determined with pen and paper
  3. Thrylos
    Rewind a couple seasons and think AL MVP: Who would you vote for MVP: Trout, Cabrera or Verlander? You got 3 comparables here.
  4. Thrylos
    My top 40 off-season are here.
  5. Thrylos
    Detail, but they signed Felix Jorge out of the Dominican as an IFE on February of 2011 (Smith signing). So 2014 will be his fourth season in the organization.
  6. Thrylos
    Goodrum is more of a Florimon-type defender. Good range but occasionally erratic and a very strong arm. The more I see him play the more I think that he will follow in the Cuddyer/Plouffe footsteps (if he starts to hit). And that might happen, but right now Goodrum is as much a prospect as Levi Michael is, because of the bat (or lack of...) Still young, but he's got to produce one of these days.
  7. Thrylos
    I think that he stays as a SS as long as possible. His defense at SS has been improving every season. I do have to question the "weak arm" bit. His arm is not like Sano's but it is not weak by any means. I would call it "average". And there have been fine shortstops with average arms (e.g. Jeter) or even weak arms (e.g. Noarm Garciaparra) as long as they are accurate. The one thing that might make him move to 2B is not his arm, but his bulkiness, if it cuts into his range. He has gained considerable muscle weight and he looks more like Jhonny Peralta (another aveage arm All Star SS, btw) than Alexei Ramirez these days, but people thought that Cal Ripken was too big to play SS once upon a time. If he is anything close to Peralta, Twins fans would be very happy (and at this point Polanco has better plate discipline, ever as an A league player than Peralta ever had or will have, so I think that his ceiling is a little higher than that...)
  8. Thrylos
    $13M a season for an aging DH? The fact that they got a younger, better version of Willingham for $7M makes me think that this would not be a smart move. I don't see him being much better than Plouffe in the future and Plouffe could be a capable replacement. If you are looking for power at the DH spot, Vargas would be an even better replacement couple years down the road. There is a pipeline of talent there (in addition to the aforementioned, Harrison, DJ Hicks, Walker, Kepler et. al.) and does not make sense to block it by re-signing Willingham. Plouffe can be a bridge to that talent in 2015. Best case scenario: Willingham has a monster season, the Twins make the post season and he rides into the sunset after this season.
  9. Thrylos
    I think that it is semantics. I have nothing against foreign prospects or players (huge Luke Hughes fan). For me "dominant" was his single 1 hit 8 K effort. The rest are "good", "very good", "ok" and not so good. I cannot say that someone dominated if he pitched 5 innings gave 4 hits and walked 3. Sorry. He needs to show more to say that he is a top 10 prospect at this system. He is still a child. He has a great future potentially, but still some ways to go. Kepler is a different story. He had one of 4 great seasons. The tools are there, but they need to translate to results for me. If he puts a 900 OPS season at A+ this season, call me a believer. He is the same age as Travis Harrison. Compare their results at CR last season.
  10. Thrylos
    Here are his game logs: Actually he just dominated in one out of 7 games (the 12/8 game; 7 IP, 0BB, 8K, 1H) He had another very good game (12/13: 6.2 IP, 4 H, 5 K) He had 3 decent games (11/24, 12/21 & 2/2) and 2 horrible games (11/30 and 12/27.) Encouraging? Of course. But not "dominating" (other than one game) and the jury is still out. The quality of the Aussie league is below independent leagues at this point...
  11. Thrylos
    His BB/K rates are encouraging. So is his fastball. Personally, I would like to see him have success against hitters who are used to the wooden bat for a bit, instead of kids who just made the transition from aluminum to wood (that's what the GCL is) to call him a top ten prospect ahead of pitchers like May, Gonsalves and Eades. Let him have some success in E-town or CR and develop a good out pitch and I will join that bandwagon.
  12. Thrylos
    I beg to differ. Please look at the title again. The thread was about Radcliff's comments about Vielma, not about Vielma in a vaccum. So I would suspect that researching and discussing Radcliff's past decisions and comments about other players, IMHO, would be central to this and not a tangent. It is like saying that Fangraphs picks the Twins to lose 90+ games in 2014 and thinking that past Fangraphs guestimates about how the Twins would do are tangential. Sorry, but they are not. Vile men bagel (anagram)
  13. Thrylos
    Pelfrey just turned 30 and has a 94-95 mph FB, Chen is around 37 and spots a 86 mph fastball. This is like saying that the Twins should go after Barry Zito (who is still a FA btw and had better FIP & xFIP than Chen and is a year younger) because he would only likely cost a MiLB contract
  14. Thrylos
    "No one" and "ever" are big words. Check Brian Harper's first 7+1 seasons in the majors or Shane Mack's first 2 seasons in the majors or the aforementioned Carlos Gomez' first 5 seasons in the majors for quick examples (unless you think that these guys were/are not "good"...)
  15. Thrylos
    The ones in bold better start at AAA. The ones underlined, could be release candidates, but I don't think that they will give up on Michael quite yet. Danny Santana spent a full season at AA (as did Danny Ortiz) and he has to get promoted. He is on the 40 man roster. Bartlett or not Bartlett. As far as Sano goes, the trick is the elbow. If the elbow is fine, he might actually be challenging for a spot in the majors. Cannot toss him all the way to AA again. I'd flip Vargas and Ziegler because one of them is a prospect and the other is not. Vargas needs reps at 1B. Spot on on Baxendale
  16. Thrylos
    I don't get how full the Thorpe bandwagon is of guys who apparently have not even see him throw the ball (he is a lefty)
  17. Thrylos
    a. How exactly did Terry Ryan take "full responsibility for this mess"? Last I remember, 2012 was because of Jerry and Stelly and the luck of someone with catching background on the coaching staff and 2013 was because they did not have an infield and base running coach. Because those are the only changes he made. b. How do you know, that those "bigger names" (I assume you mean Pohlad) did not give him an ultimatum to spend money to win for 2014, or else? His 180 degree change in his philosophy and what he says even this season (e.g. you cannot build a winner with FAs) versus what he did (get a bunch of FAs) is indicative that something is going on here...
  18. Thrylos
    Cuddyer and Pelfrey are totally different people in the way they are interacting with the public and within the clubhouse. Cuddyer was a mouthpiece, Pelfrey is a clubhouse guy. Pelfrey would have not been all smiles on the TV saying "we'll get them next year" moments after the Twins lost game 163 in Chicago (and they lost that game in part because Cuddyer did not slide to break the play at the plate.) Not fair to Pelfrey to compare those 2.
  19. Thrylos
    2015 is a long way away and things will happen by then. Having too much SP (and good SP) is an excellent place to be, because you can actually fill needs in other places of your team with it. I can see someone like May or Gibson being the centerpiece of a trade for a MLB-ready good young SS, for example... Have always been a Perlfrey fan, since his Mets' years for all he brings on the table and not only on the mound... And he just turned 30 couple weeks ago, so there is a lot left in him.
  20. Thrylos
    Span's bat has been on a constant decline pretty much since 2009/10 and last season he posted a career low .327 OBP. He has been a 2-3 WAR player because of his defense. He is turning 30 before this season and will be continue the decline. Meyer is under team control for 6+ years and can be a 5+ WAR starter for those 6 years. So the diff here is like the Garza for Young trade, with higher baselines on both ways, not to count the $ diff. Slam dunk for the Twins on paper, but injuries and such happen.
  21. Thrylos
    Yeah that makes sense. Thanks. And it also makes sense to get rid of IFBs as well because those are miss-hits
  22. Thrylos
    This is just a 5% drop. Not sure that it is significant enough I hope that he rebounds, but one has to consider his age and the fact that he is on the down curve of his career
  23. Thrylos
    Pat Neshek is a free agent too
  24. Thrylos
    I should probably add the Punta Gorda info (Allegiant flies there from my home airport too,) but it is so infrequent and Cedar Rapids or Des Moines are the closest airports to the Twin Cities for that route. Looks like they discontinued the Burlington flights too. Plattsburg, NY is the closest airport they flight to PGD now. The full list is here. Fort Myers traffic is not heavy, other than the jams right before and right after game time, which are expected. It compares favorably to most places, at least in my experience
  25. Thrylos
    That would have been at Tinker Field in Orlando. You just got to see that neighborhood these days...
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