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Thrylos

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Everything posted by Thrylos

  1. Thrylos
    Steamer has him: .297/.388/.439, 102 K, 83 BB, 35 2B, 14 HR and Oliver has him: .300/.382/.444, 100 K, 71 BB, 32 2B, 13 HR That is in the ballpark of what you have him too. But there is a huge wildcard here: Mauer not hurting from catching and playing 15-20 games more in the season. I think that your projection is low.
  2. Thrylos
    Nice guys don't sign with Detroit. Hope for a Ron Davis career for him from this season on.
  3. Thrylos
    I'd rather have the Twins' pitchers be in the top 30 in after season reality rather than pre-season fantasy
  4. Thrylos
    http://galleryplus.ebayimg.com/ws/web/230596675647_1_0_1/1000x1000.jpg
  5. Thrylos
    The one I posted L-R top to bottom: Guerra, Sano, Arcia, Oliveros. The guy who is holding the "#Paz" sign is Ibarra Shortest guy who is holding the left side of the flag is Escobar (little guy). Next to him is Danny Santana 22 in front is Ramirez. Not sure who the guy in front of Arcia is.
  6. Thrylos
    I have lots of concerns about pitch framing as a metric as well: - it has to be normalized per umpire (it is not.) And we know that a 5'7" 300lbs umpire's strike zone is different than a 6'7" 200 lbs umpire's. - it has to be normalized per pitcher (it is not). I bet if Greg Maddux was throwing exclusively to Ryan Doumit, Doumit would have been the best pitch framing catcher in the game... Until they find a way to normalize their data in at least those 2 dimensions, I am not buying it...
  7. Thrylos
    I have lots of concerns about pitch framing as a metric as well: - it has to be normalized per umpire (it is not.) And we now that a 5'7" 300lbs umpire's strike zone is different than a 6'7" 200 lbs umpire's. - it has to be normalized per pitcher (it is not). I bet if Greg Maddux was throwing exclusively to Ryan Doumit, Doumit would have been the best pitch framing catcher in the game... Until they find a way to normalize their data in at least those 2 dimensions, I am not buying it...
  8. Thrylos
    Not sure whether any one has been following it, but things have been getting pretty messy in Venezuela, and it looks like the country is in the middle of a democracy struggle (like some places in EU were three decades ago) and this affects a lot of Twins' players in Fort Myers (some of who have families there). Here is what they did today in the camp locker room: And some of these guys are not Venezuelan as well. Just a side-line to watch this Spring Training that has not been reported much by the mainstream press, so I wanted to alert you all to it... Just wish these guys' families are safe and sound there and this mess resolves peacefully quickly
  9. Thrylos
    And this was purely painful: http://aarongleeman.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/adam-johnson-twins.jpg
  10. Thrylos
    Mayday Mayday http://isportsweb.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/ron.jpg
  11. Thrylos
    Interesting enough, that was the exact Twins offer With the fourth year conditional on performance. He chose to sign with the Brewers for less money...
  12. Thrylos
    Arcia hit 24 HRs last season as a 22 year old between the majors and AAA. The season before he hit 17 between Fort Myers and New Britain. Plouffe's ceiling seems to be around 30, Kubel's ceiling was 30, Willingham is not getting any younger, so unless Sano is up in the majors to stay, I'd have to say Arcia (later) with around 35.
  13. Thrylos
    My last day in Florida this ST is 3/19 and I will guess that Sano will be with the team then, if everything goes ok. If he starts to hit a HR or two in every game he plays (and he can do that) it will be hard to send him down.
  14. Thrylos
    That's up for discussion. Here is a fact: Kirby has the highest batting average for a right hand hitter who played after 1951, if you exclude the 2 active RHB players (Kirby's is .3181, Pujols leads with .3211 and Cabrera is second with .3208; give those guys a few more decline seasons, and...) Also, is Ozzie Smith (he of the career .666 OPS) a Hall of Famer? How about Joe Gordon? (he is a good comparable btw, other than the batting championships and the rings of Kirby)
  15. Thrylos
    Gibson's 2013 season needs to be put in perspective. It was his first season back from Tommy John surgery and I think that the Twins did not call him up early enough. He was called up June 29th after he had already pitched 101.7 innings in the minors (with a 2.93 ERA/3.10 FIP) and had this near no-hitter. Here are his game logs with the Twins in 2013. Check out the GameScore (GSc) column. 50 is average. So Gibson had a few average games, one good game, couple bad games and a horrible game. He did not pitch poorly and the "major league level" and I strongly believe that if the Twins got him up to Minnesota in May instead of late June, you'd be happier with Gibson. Like Pelfrey, give him time to heal.
  16. Thrylos
    If you are talking about the fangraphs aggregate (i.e. adding all players together) data, these are way skewed because of small sample sizes on both edges of the age graphs. i.e. the few19 year olds (think Harper and Trout) in the majors are usually on the top of the scale to be there, whereas you have a whole bunch of 28 year olds ranging from MVP to replacement level... That data needs to come with error bars reflecting the sample size, but it never does The better data is data that looks at each individual player's career and then adds the individual curves. Harder to do than the fangraphs' way, but much more accurate and pushing the peak closer to 28-30...
  17. Thrylos
    Agreed. That's why I think that Pinto should be the starting C instead of Suzuki and Hicks the starting CF instead of Presley. And these 2 give the Twins a better probability to win as well... And I'd rather have Meyer or Worley or Gibson in the rotation than Correia, Deduno or Diamond every single day, for the same reason.
  18. Thrylos
    Exactly. We disagree. And I cannot as a fan say that I would want my team to have another awful season and that should be the purpose of a major league team. My premise is that the Twins should try to be competitive each and every season and if they are not there is something wrong. Also, with the free agent pitcher signings that Ryan did, they better be competitive in 2014. If someone wants to watch baseball for the sake of watching baseball and not having his team win but see his team develop players, or be entertained, there are plenty of minor and/or independent league teams to follow. Minor League teams' purpose is to develop players. Independent League teams' purpose is entertainment. Major League teams' purpose is winning.\ But that is just my opinion.
  19. Thrylos
    If you saw Gibson take a no hitter into the ninth with filthy stuff against a very good hitting team away, like I did last summer, I bet your mind might change...
  20. Thrylos
    The point is that other than Gibson maybe (and Meyer - whom the Twins will not make super-2 by any means) nobody of those is as good as Pelfrey. And Pelfrey is six and a half months younger than Deduno (for reference.) And if someone is knocking on the door, what they owe Correia will be negligible enough to jettison him mid-season if not performing. Again (as with the centerfield question) the question should be who of this bunch of pitchers will make the Twins a better team if he wins that spot and I think that's Worley, because he has the highest potential of the non-option bunch... Frankly, I think that behind Nolasco, Hughes and Pelfrey, the Twins would be better off with Worley and Meyer in the last 2 spots, but this is not happening any time soon...
  21. Thrylos
    Good thing they caught it. Didn't Guerra had a vessel issue in his shoulder (I think his was a clot) as well? Scary. Good luck to Zach.
  22. Thrylos
    In Salt Lake City in the PCL vs the IL. If 100 points higher in PCL, advantage Pinto. But Pinto's AAA numbers are extra small sample. Compare their AA numbers.
  23. Thrylos
    I suspect that Mr Sano will be able to hit a few out of Target Field as well. Arcia does too. Plouffe and Dozier have done it in the past as well. Not a great reason to keep him.
  24. Thrylos
    I have seen Pinto play in multiple games over the last 3-4 years and he has been improving as a catcher on an annual basis, which is what you expect from a catcher. About game calling: the only way for a catcher to improve his game calling skills is to catch veteran pitchers and work with veteran pitching coaches. This does not happen at AAA but in the majors. Pinto is more than adequate defensive catcher. Much better than Doumit was last season. He will be fine as a starter.
  25. Thrylos
    I would not go that far But Pinto is likely the Twins starting Catcher for the next 3+ years, unless something happens. I have been really high on Pinto since about 3 years ago when he was on nobody's radar. I would think that there is a good possibility that he (and not Suzuki) is the starter for most of the season. Simply, if he is in the majors, the Twins will not sit him. Chris Herrmann (who the BA in 2013 called the best defensive C in the organization) is another possibility and Matt Koch, Stuart Turner, Tyler Grimes and maybe even Kyle Knudson might be starter material and they are 2+ years away.
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