Thrylos

Tell me again, how you feel about the Nishioka talent acquisition?

With teams like the Phillies likely having Jeff Manship as their 5th starter, Diamond has some value. He would have had more if he pitched better this spring. About moving Worley for prospects: He is the same age as Kyle Gibson, and 2 years older than Trevor May and Alex Meyer. He is not as old as Correia, for example.

if you are dyslexic it rhymes with lemur and femur

I still think that Santana will be better than Correia (of the 4 pitchers slated to be in the Twins' rotation.) That's about it. If 2008, things might be different, but it would still be a close call with Nolasco (matter of fact, I'd take Nolasco's 2008 with the Marlins over Santana's 2008 with the Angels...)

I think that the only can't miss Cuban is some guy who is pitching with the Reds. I don't see any of the others as game changers, Puig included (still he has only one season under his belt). Some of them (Morales, Cespedes) are good major league starting line up material, but that's about it.

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch ---- One of the most contested spots for the Twins, on paper, this Spring Training was going to be that of the 5th starter. The newly signed (or re-signed) Ricky Nolasco, Phil Hughes and Mike Pelfrey, in addition to holdover veteran Kevin Correia, had four spots, while the three out of option guys (Samuel Deduno, Scott Diamond and Vance Worley, in alphabetical order) were to battle for that fifth spot, maybe with the addition of first round draft pick Kyle Gibson and newly acquired once top prospect lefty Kris Johnson. Even opinions that maybe two of the later group might win spots and force a trade of Kevin Correia were mentioned. That was on paper and theoretically. Here is what is happening in reality: Ron Gardenhire had this to say about Samuel Deduno: "He's healthy. Coming out of the 'pen, whatever, I like the guy. I would love to have this guy on my staff". In other words, one of the no-options-left pitchers is all but destined for a bullpen position. In addition, here is the list of the pitchers who have started the Twins' games this spring (including the "B" and intrasquad games) : 2/27 (intrasquad) : Hughes 2/27 (intrasquad) : Correia 2/28 (Red Sox) : Pelfrey 3/1 (Red Sox) : Diamond 3/2 (Rays) : Nolasco 3/3 (Blue Jays) : Correia 3/3 (Pirates) : Worley 3/4 (Marlins) : Hughes 3/5 (Orioles) : Pelfrey 3/7 (Pirates - B game) : Correia 3/7 (Pirates) : Worley 3/8 (Blue Jays) : Hughes 3/9 (Phillies) : Pelfrey 3/11 (Rays) : Nolasco (today) So other than the 3/1 game, Scott Diamond has been pitching in relief, like Samuel Deduno, Kyle Gibson, Kris Johnson et al., which means that if he makes the club, it will likely be as a reliever and the Twins all but handed the 5th starter job to Vance Worley. And this is not a bad thing necessarily because he is the youngest of all 3 pitchers with no options, has the highest upside and has had the most success in the majors. http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8244/8607108312_32801af160_z.jpg

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch ---- One of the most contested spots for the Twins, on paper, this Spring Training was going to be that of the 5th starter. The newly signed (or re-signed) Ricky Nolasco, Phil Hughes and Mike Pelfrey, in addition to holdover veteran Kevin Correia, had four spots, while the three out of option guys (Samuel Deduno, Scott Diamond and Vance Worley, in alphabetical order) were to battle for that fifth spot, maybe with the addition of first round draft pick Kyle Gibson and newly acquired once top prospect lefty Kris Johnson. Even opinions that maybe two of the later group might win spots and force a trade of Kevin Correia were mentioned. That was on paper and theoretically. Here is what is happening in reality: Ron Gardenhire had this to say about Samuel Deduno: "He's healthy. Coming out of the 'pen, whatever, I like the guy. I would love to have this guy on my staff". In other words, one of the no-options-left pitchers is all but destined for a bullpen position. In addition, here is the list of the pitchers who have started the Twins' games this spring (including the "B" and intrasquad games) : 2/27 (intrasquad) : Hughes 2/27 (intrasquad) : Correia 2/28 (Red Sox) : Pelfrey 3/1 (Red Sox) : Diamond 3/2 (Rays) : Nolasco 3/3 (Blue Jays) : Correia 3/3 (Pirates) : Worley 3/4 (Marlins) : Hughes 3/5 (Orioles) : Pelfrey 3/7 (Pirates - B game) : Correia 3/7 (Pirates) : Worley 3/8 (Blue Jays) : Hughes 3/9 (Phillies) : Pelfrey 3/11 (Rays) : Nolasco (today) So other than the 3/1 game, Scott Diamond has been pitching in relief, like Samuel Deduno, Kyle Gibson, Kris Johnson et al., which means that if he makes the club, it will likely be as a reliever and the Twins all but handed the 5th starter job to Vance Worley. And this is not a bad thing necessarily because he is the youngest of all 3 pitchers with no options, has the highest upside and has had the most success in the majors. http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8244/8607108312_32801af160_z.jpg

Well, I am not sure about that Check my blog today.

One of the best last names in baseball: http://farm7.static.flickr.com/6101/6236091566_5128c88a2b_o.png

Good stuff. Watching minor league games is fun, especially in that set up where you can get to watch parts of two games by turning your head in different directions BTW, did you sneak any looks at that radar gun table as far as Stewart and Thorpe goes?

And on the success or lack thereof of the Twins If the Twins are in contention (hope so) in September, I hope they get the best arms available up North to help them.

Aren't the 2014 numbers the ones that really matter for the Twins vs. the past of these 2 players? I don't care what E (or J for that matter) Santana did in 2008, I care for what he is going to do in 2014 vs what Pelfrey (or Correia for that matter) is going to do. Fair? And there is no sample size for the future I am not assuring anyone for anything. It's a gamble. I am betting Pelfrey is younger and I think that he has better stuff while Santana has been regressing since 2008. Last season Santana had a 3.93 FIP and Pelfrey a 3.99 FIP with all he went through with the elbow. Another season removed from that for Pelfrey and another season of regression for Santana.... (unless you count wins and losses and ERA or something, which all depend on others.)

Donuts to dollars Pelfrey will have better numbers than Ervin Santana in 2014. Feel free to tell me after the season if this does not come true

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch --- Here are the latest Twins Spring Training battle dashboards updated for yesterday's game and the Spring Training cuts. The players who were cut are not longer listed. You can find all of the 2014 Spring Training dashboards here) : A reminder of the scoring system: For the pitchers, I quantify using a measurement created by Bill James more than a decade ago called " Game Score". It is calculated as follows: You start with 50 points for each pitcher. Add 1 point for each out. Add 1 point for each strikeout. Subtract 2 points for each hit. Subtract 4 points for each earned run. Subtract 2 points for each unearned run. Subtract 1 point for each walk. There is a point bonus for pitching more than 4 innings as well, adding 2 points for each IP after the 4th, but this is not too applicable here. Game Scored of 49-51 are "average" (yellow), everything higher than 51 "above average" (green), and everything below 49 "below average" (red). For position players, I devised a similar metric that goes like this: Start with 0 points (unlike the pitching Game Score that starts with 50) Add 1 point for each Run, RBI, 2B, SB, BB, and HBP recorded. Add 2.5 for each hit, 3 for each 3B and 4 for each HR. Subtract 1 for each CS and GIDP, subtract 1 for each error, for catchers add 1 for each CS Subtract 0.2 for each SO and 0.5 for each AB. Again, as in the Pitching Battle Dashboard, the Position Player Battle Dashboard is color-coded based on average, above average and below average performances, where: Average is Batting Game Score between 0 and 2 Above average is Batting Game Score higher than 2 Below average is Batting Game Score less than 0 Players on the 40-man roster are in bold. The ones without options are also underlined. Left-handed pitchers are in italics. Here is the Dashboard for the Twins' position players: http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7311/13065973095_9726a80ebb_o.jpg And for the Pitchers: http://farm4.staticflickr.com/3476/13066304804_e90d00a5a8_o.jpg

I think that May will almost have to make the team as a reliever first. It is just a numbers game at this point and I take it as a given that (in no particular order) Nolasco, Hughes, Pelfrey, Gibson & Meyer are ahead of him and this will be the rotation in 2015. In 2016 if Pelfrey goes, and barring any trades, May will be challenged by Berrios and Stewart, not to mention kids like Jorge & Thorpe. So May might be a reliever just because of the numbers and 2016 might potentially the first chance he has to make the rotation (if the 4 younger pitchers are not ready.)

I love Revere, don't get me wrong. I think he has great energy and potentially game changing speed. But his career slash line with the Twins was: .278/.319/.323. A .644 OPS does not "a proven MLB player" make. Point of Reference: Punto's career slash line with the Twins: .248/.323/.324; .648 OPS. Similarly good defense. Eerily similar overall. If the Twins were to trade Punto for May and Worley, before he became a free agent, how would you feel? (*) Revere has upside. My point was on the "proven" part. He is as proven as Punto.

A. Pelfrey is better than E. Santana. B. OK. Let's trade Correia this season. Then the question becomes, who would you rather have, E. Santana or Alex Meyer in 2015?

As far as free agent catchers go, if anyone else (Pierzynski, Saltalamachia) instead of Suzuki were signed, it would pretty much guarantee AAA for Pinto. And I think that a 50-50 Pinto-Suzuki combination to start the year and end 75-25 Pinto-Suzuki, will be more productive than the 2 aforementioned. Plus the last person I would want back in the team would be Pierzynksi. As far as SS goes, Drew is still around and if he signs an one year deal it might be alright. I am a bick Eduardo Escobar believer and I think that as the starting SS, he can be a 2-3 win player (like Dozier was last year) which is higher than Drew's average. Unless they were going to trade for Jose Reyes or Buster Posey or something, not sure that there were a lot of options out there. Drew and the FA catchers would not really make that much difference in this team. What can make still the difference? Handing Hicks the CF job (instead of Presley or De Aza or something), Have Pinto get at least 50% of the starts at C, have Arcia as the starting RF, have Willingham as the DH and hope they all have good years.

Here is the question one should ask: Would you rather have Santana in his age 31-33 seasons or Gibson in his age 25-30 seasons plus $33M. Santana has been a (fairly) consistent 4.19/4.36/4.24 (ERA/FIP/xFIP) pitcher. Other than his 6 WAR 2008 season, he has been averaging close to 2 WAR a season (career 1.7 fWAR). This is Kevin Correia territory (4.18/4.40/4.24 ERA/FIP/xFIP and 1.3 fWAR in 2013 for the Twins). Do you think that Gibson can do better the next 3 (+2) seasons? I do...

Too bad this guy's number does not show: http://z.lee28.tripod.com/sitebuildercontent/sitebuilderpictures/bbmn.jpg So I guess I will have to go with this one: http://farm3.staticflickr.com/2134/2311216679_5fe0f3f30e_z.jpg

I don't think that De Aza (who has been in decline other than his power numbers) will be any improvement over Hicks at this point on both sides of the ball. Plus he hits left-handed and the Twins are full of LH hitters at this point. Plus, for principle's sake, you do not trade with the enemy before the season starts. July and August might be a different story, if you are out of it...

To put things into perspective with the dollar figures: The Twins paid $5M + $9M for 3 years ($14M/3yrs) for Nishioka. What the Cardinals did is in the ballpark

Story here Sounds like this happened the last couple days, but looks like unless he gets what he wants, he would prefer a one-year deal with either the Orioles or the Jays. Whole 3 year offer. And I am not sure what message this gives to guys like Kyle Gibson and Alex Meyer and Trevor May et. al...

I think that he will be ahead of at least Pressly who has options and no longer has to be on the MLB roster not to be lost. His chances are very good.

http://www2.pictures.zimbio.com/gi/Danny+Valencia+Minnesota+Twins+v+Boston+Red+ew9JCkVxvz9l.jpg