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Thrylos

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Everything posted by Thrylos

  1. Thrylos
    My opinion is that the Twins HOF should begin with Walter Johnson, Goose Goslin and Sam Rice. Even Knoblauch is more deserving for it than Tovar. And if Walter Johnson is not in it, I cannot make any case for anyone else to be in it.
  2. Thrylos
    99 + 96 + 96 + 92 is actually breaking the camel's back. Good to see that the locals are actually demanding baseball and not food or concert quality. And I hope that it goes lower and lower, until they either get a winning team or they sell it to someone who will get one. Nothing new here. Really. Look at the 1986 vs 1987 and 1988 attendance (and season ticket sales from 1987 to 1988) if you don't believe me.
  3. Thrylos
    That is not a good comparison because it excludes picks higher than 55. I'd argue that in the draft the the Twins picked Boyd at 55, there were better picks later among high school pitchers (but hindsight is 20:20.) Also, Boyd was a local Fort Myers kid and Twins' personnel, in addition to the regular amateur scouts, have watched him a lot. Not to be underestimated.
  4. Thrylos
    I think that there is technology to tie MLB.tv with individual cable and satellite provider programs to determine blackouts. That would be fair. So the only instance of blackout is if your game is on TV through one of your local providers. I am all for no blackouts whatsoever, but I do see the point of the Sports stations that have paid MLB tons of $ (and signed contracts) for local exclusivity. They just need to determine what exclusivity is better. And they do have the tools. The whole minor leaguer situation is horrible. And, in addition to the commissioner, the MLB players' union is to blame, since a. they do not represent minor leaguers, and b. the less the minor leaguers make, the more $ for the Major Leaguers. $13 * 40 * 52 = $25K should be the absolute minimum for these guys. Not that they cannot afford it. I bet that if the Twins paid every single minor leaguer at least that, they still would pay less than what they paid Blackburn not to play in 2013.
  5. Thrylos
    I would not put Michael and Parmelee in the same sentence as far as failed first rounders go I think that Michael turned a corner. He had the highest OPS for a second baseman in the Twins organization this side of Mexico, including Mr Dozier. His problem had been lack of comfort with the wooden stick, which looks like its gone. Plus he is healthy now and 2B agrees with him more than SS, like the aforementioned Mr Dozier. And was just 23 last season. Might see him in MN in September...
  6. Thrylos
    There are drugs and there are drugs. Shooting heroic and smoking crack carries the same sentence as taking diet pills that used to be widespread in this country and readily available on the internets . Of course, it is pretty stupid to put that stuff in his body. As far as his weight goes last ST he looked much better. Did not see him during the season, maybe JC can comment on that. Here is what he looked like about a year ago (top) vs in 2012 (bottom) . Major difference: http://farm4.staticflickr.com/3692/13155477975_efc6eb09d3_c.jpg http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7098/7022468801_d4f3a60aba_b.jpg Seriously. He was smaller than (e.g) Lester Oliveros He does need to get his act together. I think maybe becoming a reliever for a couple of seasons (started last season) might help. Too early to call him a bust after his age 21 season. There is a certain Hall of Famer who in his age 21 season (ssA) had 5.93 ERA, 1.931 WHIP and more BB than K. Boyd is ahead of that...
  7. Thrylos
    I'd argue that a good fielding first baseman like Keith Hernandez, Doug Mientkiewicz or Don Mattingly who can protect the corner doubles and triples, has enough range to his right, can start 3-4-3 double plays, can throw out a lead runner at home etc. is more valuable than his slashline. There are static first basemen, but their pitchers suffer...
  8. Thrylos
    Those are fantasy rankings, correct? If so they reflect only the parts of the game that fantasy leagues care about (usually HR, SB etc) and does not reflect the whole reality. For example, someone who hits .230/.300/.330, has horrible defense but has 50 SB is ranked higher than someone who hits .310/.360/.480 with 15 HRs 2 SBs and stellar defense.
  9. Thrylos
    Let's see: Jacque Jones, Jason Kubel, Matty Guerrier, Jason Bartlett and now Torii Hunter and Johan Santana? Sure. Why not. Matinee reruns. Eric Milton and Carlos Silva are free agents too.
  10. Thrylos
    Because certain lists have Berrios (and even Stewart!?) ranked higher than Meyer, it does not mean that Meyer is not the better prospect.
  11. Thrylos
    El espigado toletero AKA the "lanky" slugger. Espigado means the equivalent of "the one who was shoot up like a weed". I see why "lanky" was auto-translated, but I suspect that the person who wrote that really meant something more closer to "giant"...
  12. Thrylos
    Age matters. If you look at the current top non-college prospects (alphabetically: Berrios, Buxton, Polanco & Sano) all hit AA at age 20. And the Twins are slow to promote. College draftees (as Seth said) get to pro ball at age 20-22, so that is slightly a different story. And one should not reach AA before can hit breaking balls or have one at least plus pitch and at least another above average pitch, both with above average command and control, otherwise will be eaten alive. Transition to wooden bat can be a pain for some prospects, as is developing above average to plus secondary pitches. That's why they call it "development"... But if someone is AA-ready at 20, likely is MLB-ready at 21, so he has a good 12-15 productive years ahead of him, which is 5-6 more than someone who is MLB-ready at 25; That's why the younger players project to be more productive overall
  13. Thrylos
    Milwaukee is being talking to him. that 5/$110 M is not like anything the Twins would do... I doubt it was them.
  14. Thrylos
    Speaking of order of starters and the assumption that Nolasco will start the third game of the season: Do not bet on it. Hughes, Nolasco and Santana (alphabetically) are equally likely to be the opening day starter as it stands now. And of all 3 Nolasco has been than more often.
  15. Thrylos
    I was just looking at those delivery gifs (great job, as usually, btw) and look at the way he finishes with his back leg. He jerks his foot and twists his back big time and my initial thought was that it just cannot be good for his back. Did a bit of research and bingo: Looks like he herniated a disc in 2004, aggravated it in 2011, was DTD with a "stiff back" in 2012, and was in DL with disc issues in 2013. So being healthy in 2014 has allowed him to pitch more. As far as regression goes: There were 2 drivers towards his 2014 success: BB% and HR%. Those were the major outliers from his 2013 raw numbers. If he continues his locating the strike zone (maybe because of the mechanics) that BB% can still be in the ballpark, but the driver for the HRs was his 6.9% HR/FB, which might regress towards the average 10%. On the other hand, Hughes did what he did with a .324 BABIP (thanks to the Twins' Defense) which will hopefully regress itself and cancel the HR/FB regression.
  16. Thrylos
    About those road splits: Career: .243/.272/.356 This is Butera territory. Gibson and a prospect? Sure, if they throw in Jon Gray and David Dahl.
  17. Thrylos
    Not that much off topic. Pearce was a former Twin
  18. Thrylos
    I took a deep dive into payroll, market size and what the Twins can sustain, back right before the 2009 Spring Training (that's before Target Field.) It was a 3 post series (last one here with links to the other ones if anyone interested) and it was analysis based using several indicators. My conclusion (6 years ago) was that the Twins can sustain a $100-125 million payroll. Fast-forward to now, add the TV revenues, adjust for the market size, and the number should be more like $125-150 million. Back then the Twin Cities were the 17th largest MLB market (that analysis here) I still think that this ranking is about right, so the ballpark of the player salaries is within the equation... I find it interesting that back in 2009, saying that the Twins will have a $100+ payroll consistently was a radical idea, while now it is a given
  19. Thrylos
    This is fantasy Check the middle infielder PA projection: Brian Dozier 639, Jorge Polanco 596, Danny Santana 589, Eduardo Escobar 443, Doug Bernier 367, Eduardo Nunez 318 = 2952 Divide by 162 = 18 PAs per game for middle infielders. That is playing middle infielders in 4 positions in every game pretty much. Those are calculated ceilings and are really tied to the previous season performance and are spewed out without a human editorial intervention (and it shows) Check those PA projections in the 2 groups below: Jose Martinez 487 Aaron Hicks 500 Heiker Meneses 446 Max Kepler 407 James Beresford 512 Adam Walker 568 Brock Peterson 497 Eric Farris 525 Travis Harrison 554 Danny Ortiz 509 Chris Parmelee 491 Chris Rahl 384 Jason Kubel 303 The chances of all of AA players like Walker and Harrison having more PAs in the MLB level than Hicks are zero. And I think that the chances of Jason Kubel having any PAs with the Twins are close to my chances of having any PAs with the Twins in 2015...
  20. Thrylos
    Agreed about Steinbach being dead weight. What I do not agree about is that Herrmann's defense at Catcher was below average. Here. Check out who BA has as the best defensive Catcher in the Twins' organization in their 2013 top 10 prospect list. And Pinto is not that bad. Really. People (including in the Twins' organization) can say what they want to say, but it is not more than an opinion and those vary. Young catchers need to catch to learn (and I think that there is consensus pretty much about this opinion)
  21. Thrylos
    The original point is that the guy who finished first more times (i.e MacPhail) was more successful than the guys who never finished first (Hart) or finished first once (Quinn) so he should be ranked higher. Cannot take what matters the most in baseball (Winning) out of the equation. Teams do that to please their fans, because there are 29 losers and only one winner in a season. Sports competition is not Barney feel good. You can of course enjoy the game, but I bet you will enjoy it more when you win... And, yes, if my goal was to finished first, and that was the measurement I was measuring my performance against, I would be unsuccessful.
  22. Thrylos
    I think that Scherzer will further decline in 2015. Already close to 2 mph off his peak velocity and he is in the wrong side of 30. I think that in 2 years Meyer will be better, so the Twins should not pull the trigger. As far as competing: If you think that 2 pitchers and a geriatric DH who will play OF will make a 92 loss team a 92 win team, you must believe that what held that team back was Gardenhire & Co
  23. Thrylos
    May I use this in my next job performance review, if I have to? I'd love to hear a logical argument why baseball people should be different than the rest of the world and not be held accountable for not meeting their goals. Being "hard", a "matter of luck" and the such do not count, since there were clubs that actually won a whole bunch of titles, and there are a whole bunch of people who have stretch goals in every day life. Someone did something that eliminated that "luck" factor to succeed in both cases...
  24. Thrylos
    I'd rather see Pinto get a chance to be the starter because he as more potential than Suzuki and to improve as an MLB catcher you have to (well...) catch MLB pitchers. And he and Suzuki are not that far away with the glove (and Pinto has a better bat.) Mike Piaza and Brian Harper were not even close to being gold glove catchers, but they were cornerstones for their teams. That said, Suzuki has been in the league a long time, but is not that old. He is a year younger than Mauer...
  25. Thrylos
    The ultimate measure of a great GM is the number of World Series his team won. With that respect, both Jon Hart (zero, zip, nada) and John Quinn (1) should be ranked below Andy MacPhail. That is the goal of a GM: To win it all. And if that is not his goal, then something is wrong.
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