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Thrylos

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Everything posted by Thrylos

  1. Thrylos
    I'd be very surprised if Rosario ends up in New Britain Chattanooga instead of Rochester to begin the season. There are just too many outfielders projected at AA: CF Buxton Corners: Kepler, Walker, Harrison, non prospects: Kvasnicka etc as is, one of them will have to rotate with a catcher who is not catching at DH and one to sit. Rosario is ahead of all the above names, so he will likely start at AAA. (and yeah Kepler will likely play some 1B when DJ Hicks sits, but there is Mike Gonzalez to deal with too, if still around... ) Pending a trade. Just a Math problem and the best solutions is one that TR seems allergic to: Trade prospects to get someone of value in the Majors...
  2. Thrylos
    I know that this is a myth that has been propagated some place by some people (that he has only 2 pitches). Meyer has 3 plus pitches (Fastball, slow curve, change) and one average to above average pitch (slider.) I really discount a lot of those reports, if what I see with my eyes is different, based on how opposing batters react to his stuff. Here is my report on what I saw from him last season (and includes radar reading pictures, for the non-believers) The guy has a 20 mph differential in his pitches. And 4 pitches. Does any other pitcher in the Twins organization have this? Nope.
  3. Thrylos
    Meyer, Berrios and Stewart and my explanations are here and here. The one concern I have about Stewart is that his velocity is high but he does not miss many bats. His K% this season was 17.2 and that is a pretty big concern (compare that to Berrios in low 20s and Meyer at high 20s). Frankly, if this does not change this season, he might actually drop behind one or both of the lefties (Thorpe and Gonsalves.)
  4. Thrylos
    Burdi is the Twins best RHRP in any level in the organization. Disappointed that he did not receive an MLB ST invitation, because the pen is really hurting at this point...
  5. Thrylos
    Aaron Hicks and Mike Pelfrey. There
  6. Thrylos
    he's got to wear shades http://www.milb.com/assets/images/9/2/0/46115920/cuts/4_29_Walker_POW_mw2_0ai10dxr_n3mflu4r.jpg
  7. Thrylos
    Nah. Garbage in, garbage out and RBI is garbage RAR and Rbat are so much better. Can even use wRC or wRC+ if you want. Mauer 138, Dunn 115. That "RC" is Runs Created. Here.
  8. Thrylos
    So you are basing it on RBI. Unfortunately, lots of those depend on the runner and whether he can score with a single from second base, whether or not the runner will try to steal and get thrown out or even get picked off and whether the third base coach (stop sign Scottie was it then) sends a guy in. RBI are faulty in so many ways.
  9. Thrylos
    I am confused. 2012: RAR (Runs Above Replacement) : Mauer: 22 Dunn: 15 Rbat (Runs Batting - hitting only, comparison with the average hitter) Mauer: 31 Dunn: 10
  10. Thrylos
    Totally appropriate, since I don't eat meat
  11. Thrylos
    I think that they will start pursuing Ryan Howard.
  12. Thrylos
    SI has a pretty nice article examining whether Dozier is a candidate for regression in 2015. You can find it here. It is in their fantasy section, but uses real baseball arguments, so it is appropriate for real life performance as well. Lots of data and lots of analysis. Interesting read in a time where there are tales about possible extension...
  13. Thrylos
    Indeed. After his ridiculous season in 2009 (0.38 ERA, 71 IP, 12 BB, 75 K, 0.789 WHIP). Not sure what happened to him. Played in 2012 at the Yankees organization last and he did pretty well at their pen (1.61 ERA, 56 IP, 16 BB, 61 K, 0.991 WHIP) as a 22 year old at A ball. Not bad, but has not surfaced yet. Wonder what happened to him... Re Pinto and Arcia: Here is a calculations-based list that has Pinto as the Twins' third best hitting prospect in 2008, right after the GCL. And here is a more traditional one from 2010 based on production, watching them in person and scouting comments, which has Arcia at number 9 and Pinto at number 15. (That list had also 16 year olds Sano at 7 and Kepler at 13 without playing a single game in Twins' uniform and was the first time those guys ever appeared at a prospect list ) You are correct, Arcia and Pinto were absent from all derivative prospect lists. But there were there in some lists...
  14. Thrylos
    I would not call the writer who compiled that last 2 Twins lists for Baseball America a "know-nothing". He actually has watched most of those players play (unlike Callis and Mayo and the people who compile the fangraphs and bp lists. That's why they all look pretty much the same; they are derivative)
  15. Thrylos
    Depends on the kids' youth and high school coaches really. Lots of aggressive coaches have kids throw curves (and full grip curves vs knuckle curves) too young. Those kids (which includes pretty much most Latin American kids) come out with a fastball and a curve/slider (and arm problems.) Change up is a more difficult pitch to master because it has the same arm motion as the fastball just it is a different feel and it is a different pitch for everyone pretty much (thus about 6-7 different change up types.) Meyer just learned it last off-season. Johan Santana, Pedro Martinez, Randy Johnson all learned it as adults as well. If you look at the reason why relievers do not make it as starters is that they luck the change up. Most of them have a fastball and a breaking ball. A plus change and a fastball with command and control are two great things to see in a pitching prospect
  16. Thrylos
    Gonsalves' FB velocity at high school was 88-92, pretty much the same as in the pros. Occasionally he throws a couple bit higher than that. He cuts the ball a bit too, thus the lower spectrum ones. His change is an out pitch and his curveball is not as horrible as some think. He used to have a slow curve and a slider, both of which were horrible and he dropped them; not sure that this is common knowledge. He now has a faster more compact curve that shows some promise. His biggest issue is mechanics (and consistency/command of his secondary stuff because of that.) He is 20, he will be fine. I'd argue that Walker is ranked high
  17. Thrylos
    Yes, but those Twins' systems were not like this. When those guys were 20-some then, they would not make the top 60 now. That was the time when Tyler Robertson was the Twins' top prospect and Swarzak a top 5 prospect Thankfully the cows are fatter now
  18. Thrylos
    I'd stick him in the pen ASAP and I suspect that he will be (at least) the set-up guy. Here is the problem with giving him the opportunity to win a starting job: As the starters need to stretch out and pitch longer during Spring, the late inning Relievers need to get accustomed to pitch back to back days during Spring. Those two are different programs. So, if they are going to test him as a starter and he loses the job, the only thing he can do to begin the season is the mop up role. And the more he does that, the less chance he has pitching late innings. Lots of discussion about the Twins' rotation in 2014 and the need for improvement, but arguably the pen was a bigger problem, since the Twins' relievers' FIP was higher than the starters' and ranked worse in the pen rankings than the rotation did in the rotation rankings. And they did zip to address the problem (other than getting rid of Burton.) Pelfrey's stuff will translate well in the pen and the Twins likely need him more in the pen. Have May and Meyer battle for that last rotation spot...
  19. Thrylos
    Understood. But. If a guy hits 25 HRs in the minors he is more than a hair likely to hit more HRs in the majors than guys who hit 3 and 5.
  20. Thrylos
    Let's focus on "Game Power". So Adam Walker who hit 25 HRs at Fort Myers this season is ranked a hair higher than Harrison and Kepler who hit 3 and 5 in the same team respectively? This makes me think not too much about the authors...
  21. Thrylos
    I find it really weird that if Giolito has the best fastball and the best curveball in the minors according to Mayo, he is not the top baseball prospect, according to the same guy. Same as far as Buxton and Correa go. He is ranking Correa as the better hitter (ok Buxton is faster and better defender- but that's defense comparison is apples and oranges) and Correa is playing a more premium position... I really have no issue with rankings and opinions, as long as they are consistent and something is missing here...
  22. Thrylos
    We will be here (hopefully) and shall see re: Buxton vs Polanco vs Sano and shall see re: Turner vs. Minier. And unlike certain places, I did give an explanation for ranking Sano and Polanco over Buxton, vs. saying "someone else thinks he is the best prospect in baseball, thus he should be". And, if you want to argue about or discuss my list (with baseball arguments, not because Callis or Mayo said so, I don't care what they say, they ranked Blackburn as the best Twins' pitching prospect) feel free to do it at the appropriate place and not threadjack this thread. That said, I'd love to hear the argument for Turner over Minier...
  23. Thrylos
    What happened to Joe Mauer? Would there be any concern about Joe Mauer if his slash line was .289/.397/.408? Well, it was the second half of the season. He likely was and played hurt for most of the first half. Nothing to worry about. That's what happened to Joe Mauer...
  24. Thrylos
    If Joe Mauer chose football, the Twins would had won at least the same amount of World Championships...
  25. Thrylos
    Turner over Minier? And Duffey 16th in this system? Ouch!
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