Thrylos

As I indicated here and here, there are better choices. The Twins are competing. They should be acting like it

Thanks. I was referring to the public criticism than Antony and Gardenhire did in 2014. This is a great recap of that. Molitor did things quietly the way it is supposed to be done.

Bourne's OPS with Atlanta was lower than Buxton's with the Twins. Swisher is a jerk. I'd rather see Buxton play than any of these two. The Twins are competing. Band Aids should not be acceptable, esp. if they are horrible like those 2.

But he was too slow. And Gardy wanted speed. That was the reason that the Twins cut the cord with Hardy. Unfortunately they did not fix the root cause of that problem until last off-season...

About 4 months too early to talk about rosters, but if the pen looks like that, 2016 will not be that much fun Need at least another lefty in addition to Perkins, and need a couple arms at the Perkins/Jepsen/May level and better and cut the cord with players like Tonkin and Fien who have been part of the problem. I like Pressly, but he should win that spot in ST. Not sure about Darnell either. Frankly, I'd rather see what Hughes can do as the closer; he was great in the Yankees pen, vs. very good in the Twins' rotation where he could be replaced by a top notch arm like Zimmerman. And I do not want to see Milone anywhere in this team. Give me Berrios and Meyer any day and I hope one of them wins a spot this ST.

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch ---- Earlier this week, and lost among winning the rights to negotiate with Buyng Ho Park, trading Chris Herrmann for Daniel Palka, and Aaron Hicks for John Ryan Murphy, the Twins signed LHP Dan Ruzler to a Minor League Contract. I broke the news here, but did not have much time for analysis, since the other events happened, so here it is. The transaction seems pretty unremarkable, reading something like this: The Twins have signed LHP Dan Runzler from the Sugar Land Skeeters of the Atlantic League and have assigned him to AAA Rochester Red Wings. Dan Rusler is not Andrew Albers or Kaleb Thielbar, a couple of unremarkable Twins' minor league free agents originating from the independent leagues and playing in the majors during the Twins' recent dark years. Who is Dan Runzler and why I am so sure that he might actually be a factor? First things first: Dan Runzler is 30 years old, listed at 6'4" and 230 lbs (but his physique looks a lot like that of former Twins' Tyler Robertson; think NFL defensive end.) He is from Santa Monica, CA, and was drafted by the San Fransisco Giants from the University or Riveside, CA, in the 9th round of the 2007 draft. At Riverside in his junior (last) season, he was a swingman, staring 10 games (including a complete game) and relieving in 12. He did have an electric fastball in college and added a devastating slider in the Giants' minors, allowing him to make the jump in the majors in 2009, just 2 seasons after he was drafted. After that season he was listed as high as number 4 in the Giant's prospect lists. Baseball America had him at number 5 with Buster Posey, Madison Bumgarner, Zach Wheeler ahead of him. So he was a highly regarded prospect. 2010, the season that the Giants won it all, he was an integral part of their bullpen and has a World Series ring to prove it. The local press held him in the same regard (as a potential closer) with Sergio Romo and Jeremy Afeldt. Not a shabby company to have, especially if you can back it up on the mount with a plus plus 95-97 mph Fastball and a 85-88 mph slider, producing a 25.7% K-rate (resulting to 10.2 K/9) and a 2:1 ground ball to fly ball ratio. Think of Fransisco Liriano before elbow problems. That season he had a 3.03 ERA and 3.14 FIP. So what happened? A couple of things: Ruzler has always been somewhat wild and the command of his slider has been inconsistent. Even in the 2010 season, he had a 5.5 BB/9 and 1.500 WHIP (even with a below average .250 BABIP.) Later in the season he had a knee injury that made him go to a couple of rehab stints and was caught in the numbers game for a team that was after (and won) a World Series. By 2011 he was bypassed in the depth charts in a highly competitive team and a bad shoulder and lat injury, in his words, "subconsciously made him change his mechanics". In the same piece he called his command problems in 2010 and before, "mental issues". At that point he was demoted. Regardless the source of his problems, he never made it back, optioned a couple of times and finally outrighted on September of 2013. The Giants released him in July of 2014 to play in Japan. For some reason he never made it. Last season he hooked up as a free agent with the Diamondbacks where he pitched in 39 games (37.7 IP) for the AAA Reno Aces of the Pacific Coast League. His ERA was 5.26 (3.86 FIP), WHIP 2.02 (but an outlandish .407 BABIP.) He walked 28 (6.7 BB/9) and struck out 40 (9.6 K/9.) Encouragingly, his K% was 21.6% and he was close to 3:1 in Ground outs : Fly outs. He finished the season playing 19 games (17.1 IP) with Sugar Land of the Atlantic league, where he put insane (but almost irrelevant) numbers: 0.52 ERA, 3 BB (1.6 BB/9), 20 K (10.4 K/9), and 0.865 WHIP. The one number that is of interest here is the walk number, which is stellar. And this is a number for which competition does not matter than much because you either throw strikes, or you don't. I think that Runzler might be a great signing for the Twins. Clearly, his issues with command are mechanical and mental. And he admitted that. The fact that he was not throwing as many balls while playing at Sugar Land, makes me think that he was not thinking too hard, and just throwing in that level. Can he do this come Spring Training, and hopefully in the majors, for the Twins? Can the Twins help his mechanics? Two very important questions to answer, but lefties who throw 97 mph Fastballs and 88 mph Sliders do not grow on trees, esp. when that repertoire results in 11 K/9 and 2-3:1 GB:FB out ratio and a .212/.282/.263 slash line (his career number) from left hand hitters. http://www1.pictures.zimbio.com/gi/Dan+Runzler+San+Francisco+Giants+v+Houston+mSyT7FYmdcll.jpg ----

Got to add Duensing to balance that trade

Fien and Milone are set up to make $2M and $6M in arbitration. They should go. Likely the next trade involves one of them or another iffy arm on the 40 man roster (Achter, Darnell, O'Rourke, Tonkin.) Plouffe will be traded but cannot happen before the Park issue gets settled...

If that is true, it is a problem. If you complete (like the Twins did last season,) the future should be now.

Dave Stevens was the Twins' price in that trade.

That's kinda garbage generalization Good slap hitters like Carew (or Dee Gordon) made a living in the upper range and hitters like Adam Dunn and Rob Deer made a living in the lower range. Adam Dunn and Dee Gordon are polar opposites, but yeah, those BABIP polar opposites are sustainable for some guys. No. Murphy will likely not continue having a .370something BABIP. It will probably regress to his recent average of low .300s

Yes. Runzler might be the next Twins LOOGY. Cought in the numbers game in the Champion Giants' teams, then shoulder issues that may or may not been fixed. 95-97 mph FB, 85-87 mph slider in his prime. 30some. Good signing.

Hitter BABIP (unlike pitcher BABIP that will eventually regress to the norm of .290) is hitter-dependent. Some slap hitters (think Ben Revere) have high BABIPs and some power hitters have lower BABIPs. Has to do with what kind of hitter someone is. So you check a hitter's BABIP against his previous (majors or minors work) vs. against the league. Caution: Sometimes prospects change their hitting styles when getting into their primes. That will change their BABIPs. Poster boy: Dozier.

I posted my thoughts on the subject in some detail here, but there are few things in the thread worth commending: - Regarding Hicks' LHB abilities: a. They are better than Murphy's b. I wonder for how long he will be a switch hitter in the Yankees' organization. - If you compete and get someone to fulfill a starting role from a competitive team that did not thing he was good enough to start, you kinda get the feeling you are setting your expectation lower than you should if you are competing. - There was definitely some friction with Hicks; he was thrown under the bus by Gardenhire and Antony season before last, plus was that whole not-switch hitting thing; so this might be a trade of the Garza/Lohse/Slowey variety. I was thinking that with Gardy & Co gone, this mentality would be gone too, but...

Throw in Duensing as well

I was going to "like" this, but there are no playoffs in baseball. Post season

I would really starting thinking of what the outfield looks like come, let's say, March 15, 2016. What the OF might look like now, is a totally meaningless question. Really. Lots of off-season and a month of ST left to see what's going on.

I'd love to see Park a. get signed and b. play for the Twins before comparisons even begin As far as Nishioka goes, I am kind of tired of that deal being presented as "one of the worst high-profile moves in recent franchise history." First: It was not that high profile Second: Let's remember that Nishioka's leg was broken on a dirty play. What would had happen if he did not get hurt? Third: Twins' total $ commitment to Nishioka? $5.3 M signing fee and $3 a season. Compare that to the (later) Capps/Suzuki/Hughes extensions or to the Blackburn extension, for example. How about the Pelfrey extension or the Correia investment? $11.6 M total investment in Nishioka. Less than the posting fee for Park. But, yeah, once bitten twice shy, but the Twins got bitten worse than with Nishioka.

Few things: - He is still a work in progress defensively. Yes he spent some time at 3B early in the minors alternating with C, but he was an outfielder in High School. So he is still learning the position. -BP is probably the place you want to go for defensive catching metrics: Slightly above average in framing, below average in throwing out runners and well below average in blocking balls in the dirt. -Tony Pena worked with him extensively and that's part of the reasons on his improvement with both framing and CS (still has to do work, but was in the high teens in his first seasons) as well as with "errors". He is willing to work and learn and that is a good thing. - Not sure how his bat will play, but because he is RHB, you got to compare him with Suzuki and Pinto (remember him?) and not Herrmann. Is he better than Suzuki? Maybe. Is he better than Pinto? Not that sure, despite what the guy who served Murphy the meatball at Target Field says about Pinto...

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch ----- The Twins have been very busy so far this off-season, making moves that netted them Daniel Palka, Dan Runzler, the ability to exclusively negotiate with Byung Ho Park, and today they traded OF Aaron Hicks to the Yankees for back up Catcher John Ryan Murphy. There has been a lot written about this trade already, so I will not really get into details that you can read (if you not already have) elsewhere, but just want to analyze its potential effect to the 2016 Twins. If you cannot tell from the title of this piece, I am very lukewarm (at least) about this trade. Why? Here are the reasons: Hicks and his play in the outfield was one of the biggest reasons the 2015 Twins were competitive. They needed to fix outfield defense, and they did. Hicks was part of the solution in 2015. There is talk about replacing Hicks at CF with Byron Buxton (probably the best case scenario if his bat is ready, but will it be ready?) returning back to Danny Santana, who was part of the outfield problem in 2014, or potentially using Eddie Rosario, which might make sense, but would take a plus corner outfielder away. Just the fact that they are considering Santana as a replacement (unless it is empty talk) makes me think that Terry Ryan and company have learned nothing. There were personality clash issues between Hicks and Gardenhire's staff, when he was thrown under the bus for "being late in meetings", "not knowing who the opposing pitcher is" etc; but Hicks was fine under Molitor and even though I dismiss those allegations much faster than the Twins dismissed their source, there might be something there Despite Cashman trying to build up Murphy as a starting catcher at this point, actions speak louder than words: He did not use him as the starting catcher. And if a player is not good enough to be a starter in a contender, why should he be a starter for the Twins? Of course Murphy is just 24, was rated the Yankees' 4th best prospect in 2014, despite the difficulties with blocking balls and throwing runners out, he is an above average pitch framer (a trade he learned from Tony Pena.) The other encouraging thing, is that Murphy was an outfielder in High School who has been converted to a catcher and his defense in blocking balls and throwing runners out, even though not up to par, has been improving. Very hard to tell how Murphy will end up being with the bat as the most-days catcher, because the data we have is from sporadic back up play. The last couple of seasons in the majors, he had an acceptable slash line, however his BABIP jumped to the mid-high s300s from the high .200s in the minors? Did he turn a corner and made adjustments or is it an artifact of the small sample? His K% has been in the low 20s, which is also worrisome. But he can improve. My biggest objection with this trade, was pretty much part of this analysis: The Twins in 2015 were not good against RHPs, and they need to improve, so if they were looking for a Catcher to platoon with Kurt Suzuki, they need a LHB who will play more (against RHPs) and can hit RHP better than Suzuki. Murphy is not this; you cannot platoon same-side hitters; you can use them on different situations. Murphy hits lefties pretty well, but struggles against RHPs; as a matter of fact, Suzuki is better than Murphy against RHPs. At this point, other than fewer concussions, I am not sure that Murphy is bringing more to a competing team (remember that little detail?) than Josmil Pinto does. As a matter of fact he might be bringing less to the table at this point. However, I said that I might like this trade under one condition. What would this condition be? If the Twins use Murphy as the (less playing) Right hand side of a platoon against LHPs, let him develop a bit, and get a lefty or switch-hitting starting Catcher to face RHP, cutting ties with Suzuki. If that happens, that trade might be ok. The off-season is still young... http://farm3.staticflickr.com/2849/13202271055_90f257ba1d_z.jpg

Nah. He was drafted from LSU and played OF in College. Jim Thome, on the other hand was a third baseman once upon a time

That's where Fien, and Milone should be. They would not make the bullpen and rotation of any 2015 post-season team, so the Twins, should trade them and save themselves $8M in arbitration $ to plug some holes, like let's say a year of Soria...

That includes the years the Twins had Visalia as an affiliate; he did it in Visalia. Benson and Kubel were my first thoughts...

That was not MLBTR, it was the Angel's beat writer Jeff Fletcher (where MLBTR poached it) thinking out loud. But it really is a no-brainer, as you can see here, as well.

Nobody ever did The closest were: Todd Walker 21 HRs and 23 SB 1995 AA Hardware City Rock Cats Garry Gaetti 22 HRs and 24 SB 1980 A Wisconsin Rapids Twins pretty decent company methinks. And he is a LHB